Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Bay Capital, Empresaria, Foxtons, InterContinental, Medpal, Phoenix Copper, Rank, Shoe Zone, Tungten West, Thruvision, Wizz Air.
The broader market remains remarkably resilient. AI-related nerves have not yet spoiled the party for the Dow, the FTSE 100 is holding key support as it targets a record high, and even the quieter crypto market is trying to build a base.
There are also some punchy setups among the UK small caps. Several shares are pressing through resistance, recovering from bear traps, or approaching potentially significant moving-average signals. As ever, the levels matter. The bullish cases hold together only while the relevant support areas remain intact.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
Major Indices: FTSE 100, DAX and Dow Jones
FTSE 100 targets 11,000
The FTSE 100 has bounced just above notional support at 10,820. There is always a little wiggle room around chart levels, and a move towards 10,760 would still be tolerable, but the market has not needed to test that lower area so far.
The main attraction is the prospect of 11,000, a potential record high. That level sits around the top of the rising trend channel running from March. A decisive move through 11,000 could open the way towards 11,400 by the end of next month.
On the downside, 10,760 remains the preferred floor. There is additional chart support lower down from the channel floor and the 50-day moving average near 10,580, but ideally neither level needs to come into play.
DAX holds above the 26,000 area
The DAX has solid support around 26,300, a former target area that now coincides with the top of the March trend channel. Provided the index stays on the right side of 26,000, the next upside target is 27,300, near the top of the rising channel from February.
The near-term worst case would be a pullback to former late-July resistance at 25,600. Until that happens, the chart remains constructive.
Dow Jones keeps the bullish structure intact
The Dow has absorbed the recent concerns surrounding AI and still looks well supported. Holding above the top of the gap at 53,600 is a particularly encouraging sign.
The next target is 55,000, followed by 56,000, where a March resistance-line projection comes in. The best-case scenario would be to reach that higher target by the end of next month.
For the rest of this month, the key is to remain above 54,000. A breakdown towards 53,300, the channel floor and initial July resistance area, would be the main bearish risk.
Crypto Markets: Bitcoin and Ethereum Search for Momentum
Bitcoin needs to stay above its 50-day average
Bitcoin remains rather dull, which is probably the most accurate description of the current price action. Still, there are tentative signs that the chart is trying to turn higher.
The price has bounced above a rising 50-day moving average at $63,300. The RSI has also held around its neutral 50 level and is respecting an uptrend line in the RSI window, albeit without much conviction.
As long as Bitcoin remains above the 50-day line, the chart points towards:
- $67,000, representing post-June resistance.
- $69,900, where the 200-day moving average currently sits.
Given how quiet the market is, reaching those levels may take until the end of next month. Patience is likely to be needed.
Ethereum consolidates above rising support
Ethereum is also consolidating above a rising 50-day moving average, currently around $1,808. The longer the price holds above that level, the better the chance of a move towards the 200-day average at $2,039.
Ethereum has not properly traded above the 200-day line since November, so the crypto market is not exactly in a happy-go-lucky mood. However, the RSI has bounced from neutral 50 for the third time this month. That gives the chart a reasonable chance of reaching the 200-day average, even if the market struggles again once it gets there.
Gold and WTI Crude Oil
Gold recovery targets the 200-day moving average
Gold has made good progress in recovering from its dip below 4,000. The immediate upside objective is the rising 200-day moving average at 4,497, which represents the minimum target on the rebound.
The best-case target is around 4,600, where post-May resistance comes in. That may be a move for the end of next month rather than an immediate target.
On any pullback, initial August resistance near 4,300 becomes the obvious support area to watch. For now, the important development is that the recovery is underway after the earlier sharp weakness.
WTI crude oil rebounds from a bear trap
WTI crude oil has delivered a bear-trap rebound from below its rising 200-day moving average. It has also moved above the falling 50-day average at 79.44, which now looks like the likely floor ahead of a push towards the July gap near 87.
The RSI has moved back above neutral 50, although it has spent much of its time hovering either side of that level. The more significant drivers are the rising 200-day line and the bear-trap reversal beneath it.
For now, any dips towards the 50-day average should be the area to monitor. The chart is suggesting that expectations of a swift resolution in the Iran situation may be premature.
UK Shares in Focus
- Bay Capital: Above 12.5p opens up 18p: Bay Capital continues to post new highs for the year. The shares have reached the top of the rising trend channel from late 2024 at around 12.5p, effectively hitting that target right on the nose. A sustained move above 12.5p would point towards 18p, which is the area of post-2023 resistance. That target could come into view by the end of next month, provided the shares remain above the latest gap floor at 10p on an end-of-day closing basis.
- Empresaria: A U-shaped recovery takes shape: Empresaria is not a share that usually attracts a great deal of attention, but the current setup is worth noting. The chart appears to be developing a U-shaped turnaround, supported by a progression of gap-ups. The target is a retest of 38p, potentially by the end of next month. It is a punchy call, but the technical picture is punchy as well.
- Foxtons: Gap-fill potential towards 43p: Foxtons has suffered a setback in recent days, but buying appears to have emerged at the lower levels above 35p. That leaves the shares looking capable of filling the gap towards 43p. The 43p area is also the top of the falling trend channel. The shares could reach that level by the end of next month, or possibly earlier, even if they subsequently run out of steam.
- InterContinental: Bear-trap rebound needs confirmation: InterContinental appears to be staging a bear-trap rebound from below July support at 152.25p. An end-of-day close back above that level would improve the setup significantly. That could lead to a move towards the 50-day moving average at 163p, with 165p possible by the end of this month or sooner.
- MedPal: Eli Lilly development supports the 5.6p target: MedPal has received a potentially helpful catalyst following authorisation involving Eli Lilly’s Fandeo weight-loss treatment. MedPal is an approved Eli Lilly purchaser, which could place it in a favourable position if demand for the treatment proves strong. The product is reported to reduce body weight by 12%, and the expectation is that weight-loss tablets could sell extremely well. From a chart perspective, MedPal has already delivered a move from around 3p. An end-of-day close through the 200-day moving average near 4.4p would point towards 5.6p, the top of the rising trend channel and the principal post-January resistance area. The initial expectation was for this target by the end of next month, although the current pace suggests it could arrive by the end of this month. The bullish case remains in place while the shares stay above the rising 50-day moving average at 3.63p.
- Phoenix Copper: Interest builds after a resistance break: Phoenix Copper has continued the move above 0.44p resistance. The initial target, the halfway level of the July 6 down day at around 0.6p, has now been achieved. Above 0.6p, the next objective is the bottom of the gap at 0.73p. The best-case scenario would be a test of the 50-day moving average near 0.77p. The upside case remains valid while the shares hold above recent resistance on the way down, around 0.47p.
- Rank: Inverse head-and-shoulders setup points to 124p: Rank has an update due shortly and buying has started to emerge just below the 50-day moving average, around 96p. The first chart hurdle is 104p, the top of the falling trend channel from April. A break through 104p would support a move towards 124p by the end of next month. It is an ambitious target, but the chart resembles an inverted head-and-shoulders formation and the RSI has bounced above neutral 50.
- Shoe Zone: Clearing 70p brings 82p into focus: Shoe Zone has reached its initial target at 70p following positive news. Whether the weather is ideal for a rush on shoes, sandals and flip-flops is another matter, but the chart has done its job. Above 70p, the next resistance target is 82p, potentially by the end of next month. Continued consumer demand will, of course, help keep the momentum going.
- Tungsten West: Channel target sits at 53p: Tungsten West has started a fresh upside leg after a brief bear trap below 35p. The next target is the top of the rising trend channel from February, which points towards 53p by the end of next month. The crucial condition is for the shares to stay above recently broken resistance at 40p. As long as that level holds, the technical structure remains encouraging.
- Thruvision: Above 1.12p, the gap-fill target is 1.75p: Thruvision has broken through the previous target at 1.12p, with the move helped by a timely supportive post on X. An end-of-day close above 1.12p would point towards filling the gap at 1.75p, potentially by the end of next month or sooner. The shares have also benefited from a recent £3 million contract. TR-1 activity involving the Lange family adds another layer of interest, particularly as the disclosed activity involved selling rather than buying. That naturally raises the question of who may have been taking the stock.
- Wizz Air: Consolidation needs a break above 11.60p: Wizz Air remains a somewhat messy chart, but it is consolidating. The airline sector may be receiving added attention following the EasyJet bid situation, although the immediate technical requirement is straightforward. The shares need to break 11.60p, the top of the converging triangle pattern. That is the initial upside target while the price remains above 10.60p.
Levels Matter More Than Headlines
Across the indices, commodities, crypto and individual shares, the common theme is support holding up beneath the market. The FTSE 100 is aiming for 11,000, the Dow is holding above its gap support, Bitcoin and Ethereum are trying to build around their rising 50-day averages, and several small-cap charts are showing the early signs of recovery or continuation patterns.
The important thing is not to get carried away by targets in isolation. A target only remains credible while the relevant support level, moving average or trend-channel boundary continues to hold. Stay on the right side of those levels, and the charts can continue to do the heavy lifting.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
