Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Active Energy, Calnex, Exchange XR, Great Western, Light Science, Powerhouse, Seed, TPX, and Tap Global.
Thursday’s market setup is one of those sessions where the charts do most of the talking. Across the main indices, crypto, commodities and a handful of small caps, the technical picture is fairly clear: some markets are trying to break higher, some are consolidating after strong moves, and a few are right on key support where the next daily close matters a great deal.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
Here’s the full technical rundown, from the FTSE 100 and DAX through to Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, crude oil, and a selection of UK-listed stocks.
FTSE 100: Balanced on the 50-day moving average
The FTSE 100 is trading either side of its 50-day moving average at 10,392, which makes this a fairly pivotal area.
If the index slips below that level on an end-of-day closing basis, the risk is a move back down towards the bottom of the current range and the floor of the falling channel, which comes in around 10,220.
On the upside, resistance is sitting at the top of that falling trend channel from February, around 10,565.
So for the FTSE, the picture is straightforward:
- Support: 10,392 initially, then 10,220
- Resistance: 10,565
- Bias: Neutral to slightly cautious while below channel resistance
DAX: Consolidation after the spike, but still constructive
The DAX had a sharp spike higher and pushed through the April resistance at 24,800. Since then, it has started to consolidate, which is no surprise after such a strong move.
Importantly, the index nearly filled the old gap from the end of February. That gap looked to run from roughly 25,188, while the recent high came in at 25,152, so it narrowly missed a full fill.
Even so, the structure still looks positive while there is no end-of-day close back below 24,800. As long as that former resistance now acts as support, the chart continues to point towards a possible move into the 25,500 zone, effectively back towards the record highs.
Whether the DAX can actually break to fresh highs is another matter. Without a dramatic improvement in the geopolitical backdrop, it is difficult to imagine an outright surge to new highs. But if conditions do improve materially, a stretch target of 26,000+ is possible, based on a June resistance line projection.
On the downside, the key hope is that the market does not fall back below the floor of the recent gap, around 24,400.
One technical detail worth noting is that the latest spike was triggered by a double RSI 50 rebound, which means the momentum setup did exactly what it was supposed to do.
- Support: 24,800, then 24,400
- Resistance/target: 25,500
- Blue-sky target: 26,000+
Dow Jones: The market is acting as if better news is coming
The Dow continues to behave as though the market expects an easing in the current conflict backdrop. It has closed just shy of a major round-number area, and the technical case remains geared towards higher levels.
The main upside objective remains the November resistance line projection at 52,500. Best-case scenario, that target could come into play by the end of this month, although allowing for the end of next month is probably more realistic if the rise is steadier.
Initial support is seen near 48,600, and that is the level expected to hold if the trend is to remain constructive. If there is a sharper pullback or a rug-pull style reversal, the 50-day moving average at 47,800 is the more important fallback support.
- Upside target: 52,500
- Support: 48,600
- Worst-case support: 47,800
Bitcoin: Quietly defying the bears
Bitcoin has been in surprisingly good shape and, in truth, has been defying the sceptics. Price has pushed out of the rising trend channel that had been in place since February and has approached the 200-day moving average at 83,100.
That 200-day line is the next major barrier. If Bitcoin can clear it convincingly, then the next upside target becomes 90,000+, which was a resistance area on the way down back in January.
That would amount to a fairly impressive recovery, and in many ways a stealth recovery, because it is not one many people seem prepared to believe in.
Support is seen around 77,000, which marks initial May support. The chart has also had an RSI uptrend line and three RSI 50 rebounds in the last month, so the recovery case has had decent technical backing even while sentiment remained hesitant.
- Support: 77,000
- Resistance: 83,100
- Target above resistance: 90,000+
Ethereum: Positive, but with heavier overhead resistance
Ethereum has also been trying to improve, but the setup is not quite as clean as Bitcoin’s.
The market has been attempting to push towards the top of its channel near 2,540, but there appears to be stubborn resistance just above 2,400. While Ethereum remains below 2,400, there is a risk of a retest of the 50-day moving average at 2,223.
That said, the RSI is above the neutral 50 level, which suggests momentum is at least constructive. So the working assumption for now is that the 50-day line should be the lowest level of note before another attempt to move higher.
Best case, Ethereum could work its way up to the 200-day moving average at 2,686.
- Resistance: 2,400, then 2,540
- Support: 2,223
- Best-case target: 2,686
Gold: Momentum improving again
Gold has started to excite the market again, even if the narrative around why it is rising may not entirely make sense. The chart, however, is what matters here, and that is improving.
An uptrend line from October is currently running through around 4,530, while the next upside level of interest is the 50-day moving average at 4,792.
The RSI has also pushed back through the neutral 50 mark, which reinforces the idea that there is room for the market to head towards that moving average. Even if gold were to struggle after reaching that area, the technical bias still favours a run towards 4,792 first.
- Trend support: 4,530
- Upside target: 4,792
- Momentum signal: RSI back above 50
WTI crude oil: Sitting right on a crucial support zone
Crude oil has had a significant move lower over the past 24 hours. After failing below $99, the market reached the 50-day moving average near $92, which had already been flagged as the obvious downside target.
The key issue now is whether WTI can hold above that 50-day line on an end-of-day closing basis. If it can, then there is still a chance of a rebound back towards the $99 area.
If not, and the market closes below the 50-day average, noted around $93.74, then a move into the mid-$80s starts to look difficult to avoid.
The real worst-case support is recent backing around $80, but for now the chart battle is all about the 50-day line.
- Immediate support: 50-day moving average around $92 to $93.74
- Downside risk if broken: mid-$80s
- Worst-case support: $80
- Recovery target: $99
Small-cap stock charts to watch
It is not a huge day for small caps, but there are still several interesting setups worth tracking.
Active Energy: Rebound building above 12p: Active Energy has made a nice recovery in recent sessions. The rebound started from just below the 50-day moving average on 1 May, and price has now pushed back towards the low teens. As long as the stock remains above 0.12p, the second upside target remains 0.15p.
Calnex Solutio: Progressing through targets: Calnex continues to perform well. The first target around 65p has effectively been cleared, and attention is now on the second target around 82p. Beyond that, the next line projection points towards roughly 97p by the end of next month. The key support is former resistance around 70p, while ideally the stock now stays above 75p, which was yesterday’s resistance.
Exchange XR: Broadening triangle breakout setup: Exchange XR has not been on the radar for a while, but the chart has started to look more interesting. There is a broadening triangle base in play, and the top of that formation points towards 0.48. The setup remains valid while the shares hold above the 50-day moving average at 0.23p. There has also been a useful bear-trap rebound from below the initial April support around 0.17p, which adds to the sense that the chart is trying to turn.
Great Western: Strong chart, next target at 5.5p: Great Western is attracting attention and the chart is undeniably strong. The shares are approaching the second target around 4.1p. Above that, the next objective is 5.5p by the end of next month, especially while the stock remains above recent broken resistance at around 3.5p. A couple of RSI 50 rebounds in the recent past have underpinned the strength of the move.
Light Science: Double bear-trap gap reversal: Light Science has staged a surprisingly solid recovery and the chart is one of the more interesting ones in the group. The stock suffered a gap down in March on the fundraising news, but it now has two unfilled gaps to the upside, which gives the recovery extra bite. Price is also back above the 50-day moving average at 1.81p. The initial upside target is the resistance line from October, around 2.6p. Above that, there is gap-related potential towards 2.9p, and then possibly the 200-day moving average at 3.5p by the end of next month.
Powerhouse Energy: Gap closed, now can it build on it?: Powerhouse Energy has rebounded better than many might have expected. The recent move has effectively closed the gap down from 0.28p, which is an important technical achievement. If the stock can stay above 0.28p on an end-of-day closing basis, the next target becomes the resistance line and top of the channel near 0.37p, potentially by the end of this month.
Seed Innovations: Gap through the 200-day line: Seed Innovations has produced a notable move by gapping through its sharply rising 200-day moving average at 3.1p. That leaves the chart pointing towards 3.8p by the end of this month, provided the shares stay above the 200-day line.
TPXimpact: A clean U-shaped turnaround: TPXimpact is showing a very tidy U-shaped recovery above a gap, which is often one of the better-looking reversal structures. The minimum target here is the top of the rising trend channel at 53p in the coming days. Best case by the end of next month is a move up to 74p, particularly while the stock remains above recent support at 40p.
Tap Global: Improving after a bear trap: Tap Global has had a decent announcement behind it, and the chart is beginning to look better after a bear-trap rebound from below the February support at 1p. The immediate technical hurdle is the 50-day moving average at 1.3p. If the shares can manage a quick end-of-day close through that level, then the best-case target becomes the top of the broadening triangle base at around 1.9p by the end of this month.
Final market view
The broad theme across the charts is that several markets are still trying to recover or extend recoveries, but many are doing so right at obvious technical levels. The DAX above 24,800, Bitcoin near the 200-day line, crude oil on the 50-day average, and a number of small caps reclaiming broken resistance all make for a market where confirmation matters.
Where the technicals have worked, they have worked cleanly. Double RSI 50 rebounds, bear-trap reversals, gap fills and moving average recaptures are showing up repeatedly. That does not remove risk, but it does mean the charts are offering tradable structure rather than noise.
For now, the most important thing is to keep an eye on the daily closes. In quite a few of these names and markets, that is what decides whether the current move is simply a bounce or the start of something more durable.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
