Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, WTI Crude Oil, Altona, Arrow, BP, Boohoo, Distil, EasyJet, Invinity, Marechale, Panther, Poolbeg.
Disappointment is still hanging over parts of the market, but it is not a one-way story. Some charts are rolling over, some are simply stuck in the mud, and a few are quietly setting up for stronger moves. The picture right now is mixed, which means the levels matter more than ever.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: Bull trap risk after the May breakout fails
The FTSE 100 has lost momentum after pushing above the early May resistance area near 10,500 and then slipping back. That failed breakout now looks like a classic bull trap, and the move back below the 50 day moving average at 10,359 does not help.
The immediate concern is a retreat towards the lower boundary of the rising channel that has been in place since October. That floor currently comes in around 10,220. Normally that would be the first place to look for support.
However, the relative strength index has failed around the neutral 50 zone, and that often warns that the market is not just pausing but weakening. If that signal plays out fully, the FTSE could be dragged lower than the channel floor, potentially towards the 200 day moving average below 10,000.
For now, the working assumption is a test of the channel base first. The hope is that conditions improve there, but the tone is clearly softer than it was a few weeks ago.
DAX: Technicals still point higher despite the lack of movement
The DAX has been chopping around the previously broken January resistance line at 25,000 and struggling to commit either way. Support around 24,700, which matches the base of the March channel, has been in focus.
There had been optimism around a potential golden cross between the 50 day and 200 day moving averages, which would normally strengthen the bullish case. That crossover has not yet arrived, but the broader technical backdrop is still constructive.
The key positive is the rebound in RSI from above 50. Even though price action has been uninspiring, that signal suggests the market still has enough underlying strength to push towards the top of the March channel. That target sits near 26,200 by the end of the month.
Dow: Old resistance is still acting like support
The Dow remains one of the steadier major indices. It is still holding above the old February resistance near 50,500, and that matters because former resistance often turns into a support platform during a recovery phase.
There is also an uptrend line from March now rising towards roughly 50,400, which reinforces that support zone. As long as the market stays in that area, the broader upward structure remains intact.
The worst case for now looks like a retest of the support region from mid to late May near 49,200. But as long as the Dow remains comfortably above 50,000, the bigger target is the projection of the November resistance line towards 53,000 by the end of this month.
Bitcoin: A quiet breakdown is still a breakdown
Bitcoin has been undergoing what can only really be described as a silent disaster. This time the decline has not come with the same drama seen during the January to February drop, but technically the damage is significant.
The market has already broken beneath the base of the recovery channel from February at 70,000. It has also dropped through the March support area at 65,000. The longer it remains below that March floor, the greater the chance of another move down towards February support at 60,000.
There is an even more worrying possibility. If the falling trend channel continues to dominate, the lower boundary of that pattern points all the way towards 42,000. That would be a brutal outcome, especially for those who piled into the trade when sentiment was much stronger.
Another negative is the behaviour of the moving averages. Both the 50 day and 200 day lines are now falling, effectively creating a dead cross type backdrop. That is usually one of the weakest phases in the cycle.
The one small glimmer of hope is momentum. RSI has fallen deep into oversold territory below 20, which is the most stretched condition since February. That does not guarantee a floor, but it does raise the odds of a rebound after a few more weak sessions. At the moment though, the chart remains very weak.
Ethereum: Leading Bitcoin lower
Ethereum has not just followed Bitcoin on the way down. It has actually led the move. The break below the floor of the rising trend channel from February around 2,060 set the tone, and the market has since fallen through the old February low.
That break is important because it suggests Bitcoin may also fail to hold its own February low near 60,000.
As for Ethereum itself, the downside picture is grim. The lower boundary of the falling trend channel points towards 1,000 over the coming weeks in a worst case scenario. Before that, a more realistic initial downside zone would be the April 2025 support area around 1,400.
Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is deeply oversold, with RSI down near 17. That may slow the decline and produce a bounce, but oversold conditions alone are not enough to reverse a chart that has already broken multiple supports.
Gold: Weak, but still rangebound above the 200 day line
Gold has been softer than many would have expected, especially given the nervous tone elsewhere. It has recently tested the 200 day moving average and is hovering close to that support again.
The 200 day line sits at 4,423 and remains the key level. While the market stays above it, the expectation is for gold to trade within a range bounded by that support and the 50 day moving average at 4,633.
The preferred strategy here remains patience. Intraday dips towards the 4,400 area or just below still look like the place where limit orders may make sense, provided the 200 day support continues to hold.
WTI crude oil: A geopolitical bid, but the chart is messy
WTI crude has had a lift from the failure to reach a deal involving the United States, Israel and Iran. That has helped prices recover, but the chart itself is far from tidy.
The key battleground is the resistance line from April. That line is acting as the dividing line between a market that believes peace may yet break out and one that expects tensions to remain elevated. Price is still just about on the right side of that zone, but it remains below the 50 day moving average at 97.66.
The immediate upside hurdle is around 98.77, which is where that resistance line comes in. On the downside, the recently broken resistance near 92.50 may start acting as support.
One cautionary signal is the RSI, which has failed around the neutral 50 mark. That often hints at a market that may drift lower rather than break sharply higher. For now, crude looks like one to watch rather than chase.
Stock charts in focus
Altona: Rebuilding after the rug pull: Altona suffered a sharp setback early last month, but the shares are trying to stabilise near the 200 day moving average around 2.2p. So far the rebound has held together reasonably well. The gap higher has the look of a bear trap reversal, which improves the recovery case. Initial resistance comes in at 2.75p. If that gives way, the next target is the 50 day moving average near 3.2p later this month. For anyone taking a cautious approach, an end of day close above 2.75p would offer stronger confirmation.
Arrow Exploration: Finally breaking through: Arrow has taken its time, but the patience is at last being rewarded. After plenty of sideways drifting, the first target at 17p and the second at 25p have both come into play. Above 25p, the shares look capable of pushing on significantly. The best case target is now around 43p by the end of July, provided the stock can hold above the 25p level. For long suffering bulls, this is the kind of move that starts to justify the wait.
BP: Recovery play with a possible takeover angle: BP has an added layer of interest because there may be a window of opportunity for bidders while the company is without a chairman. Whether a bid materialises or not, the chart is trying to improve. Main resistance is around 567p, just above the 50 day moving average at 560p. A break through there would open up the top of the rising trend channel from November, pointing towards 660p. The fly in the ointment is momentum. RSI has rolled over near the neutral 50 area, so the stock still needs to clear that momentum resistance line from April to really get moving. Even so, as long as BP holds above last month’s support at 532p, the recovery story stays alive.
Boohoo: Better fundamentals now backing the chart: Boohoo has had a strong week on the news front, with a noticeable improvement in the fundamental backdrop. That has fed into the chart, where the shares have broken a resistance line around 20.5p to 21p. The next step is to build above that breakout area. If the move holds, a retest of the January resistance around 26p looks achievable by the end of this month. In a stronger scenario, the top of the rising trend channel from October points as high as 33p by the end of next month. That may feel a long way off for now, but the direction has clearly improved.
Distil: Mission accomplished, with one more upside marker possible: Distil has delivered a strong move higher and reached the target suggested by its rising trend channel. That upper boundary lined up neatly with the top of the March gap around 0.09p, and that objective has now been met. There may still be a little more in the tank, with the 200 day moving average at 0.11p as the next possible destination. But after the recent run, this already counts as a successful call. Looking ahead, support ideally starts to show itself above 0.07p.
EasyJet: Holding up well after the approach: EasyJet had already started moving before news of the approach arrived, which in hindsight made the early strength look very well judged. Now the technical picture remains positive. The shares are finding support around the 200 day moving average near 447p, and they are also holding above the pre approach resistance line around 420p. That combination suggests the market is still pricing in the possibility of a deal, whether from the current interested party or another bidder. On that basis, the August resistance line projects towards 546p, potentially by the end of next month or sooner.
Invinity Energy: Consolidating the vertical move: Invinity still looks constructive. After a strong rise, the shares are consolidating rather than collapsing, and they are holding above the initial resistance area at 36p. That support matters because it keeps the door open to further gains. The upper boundary of the rising trend channel from spring last year points towards 43p by the end of this month, as long as 36p remains intact.
Marechale Capital: More than expected, and still improving: Marechale has finally produced the breakout many were waiting for, and then some. The stock has surged through both of the prior target zones, first the top of the channel near 2.8p and then the upper parallel around 4p. That leaves the next best case target at 6.75p, based on a projection from the December resistance line. After such a strong run, the main technical requirement is straightforward. The shares should now remain above 4p.
Panther Metals: Strong progression with the gap still unfilled: Panther continues to improve in a disciplined way. The shares have been advancing steadily, helped by a bullish gap higher last month that remains unfilled. As long as the stock stays above broken resistance at 146p, the chart points towards 183p in the near term. It is a nice example of fundamentals and technicals working together rather than fighting each other.
Poolbeg: A long wait, but the reversal is taking shape: Poolbeg is another stock that has taken a long time to get going, but the chart is finally starting to reward that patience. The top of the rising trend channel from January last year comes in around 7.9p. Above that, the next target is 11.3p, with scope to reach it as soon as the end of this month. More broadly, the move now looks like a reversal of the decline that ran from spring 2024 into spring 2025.
What stands out right now
The broad market message is not simple, but it is clear enough:
- FTSE 100 looks vulnerable after a failed breakout.
- DAX remains technically constructive even if price action is sluggish.
- Dow still has the cleanest bullish structure among the major indices.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum are in the weakest shape, with heavy downside pressure despite extreme oversold readings.
- Gold is soft but still trying to hold a broad range above its 200 day moving average.
- WTI crude has support from geopolitics, but the chart remains messy and indecisive.
- Several small and mid cap stocks are beginning to deliver stronger technical setups, especially where key resistance levels have already been cleared.
Right now, this is a market where support and resistance levels are doing the heavy lifting. Some instruments are close to confirming recoveries. Others are on the verge of deeper breakdowns. That makes discipline essential, because in this type of environment, the chart often tells the story before the headlines catch up.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
