Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are for the FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Crude Oil, BSF, Eco (Atlantic), Great Western, IQE, Mercantile Ports, MTI, Neo, Oriole, Ondine, Trellus, Thaila, Wildcat, and Zenith.
The big theme across multiple markets is the same: price is not behaving like the headlines suggest. That is often where the real opportunity lives, but it only lasts while key support and resistance levels hold.
As always, do your own research and treat these as chart-based observations rather than hard recommendations
FTSE 100: the “end of day close” is the trigger
The FTSE 100 has hit a roadblock around 10,650, which acted as resistance on the way down last month. Right now, the setup is simple: You want an end-of-day close above 10,650 to unlock the next highs. Without that, the upside targets remain more theoretical than actionable.If the index does clear 10,650 convincingly, the next potential upside zone is: 10,900 (all-time highs area), 11,100 (top of the October trend channel) If price starts slipping, the market has two notable downside “decision points”: 50-day line: around 10,396, Channel floor: around 10,280. The 50-day area is the favoured pullback zone in this framework. The 10,280 channel floor is framed as the near-term “hopefully worst case”.
Dax: bull-trap style action and “gap down” expectations
The Dax did not manage to clear the 50 and 200 day lines around 24,100. There is also a 3-day island reversal, specifically described as a bull trap island reversal. Look for the market to revisit the floor of the latest gap at about 23,400. Even if the Dax then rallies back towards 24,100, the prior bearish setup suggests caution. There is also a reality check in the notes: the Dax has been “pretty rubbish” near term, so the stance is not overly optimistic about large clean moves. To stabilise, the notes want price to remain above 23,400 and keep RSI above 50. If that happens, the target becomes a return to post-March resistance, roughly 24,000 plus.
Dow: topping the falling trend channel requires a close above a key line
For the Dow, the key reference is that price has hit the top of a falling trend channel. The notes add a level: 48,300. Assume the index won’t break the channel resistance at 48,300 unless it shows strength. That strength is an end-of-day close above 48,300, which would open the door to the “magic” 50,000 level again. If that fails, the downside becomes the 200-day line around 46,842. The Dow’s momentum is described as still in a good place, with the latest rally backed by bullish divergence. That is often what prevents dips from turning into a trend breakdown immediately.
Bitcoin: a revival is hard while it fails repeatedly in the 70s
Bitcoin’s “revival” story is not particularly welcoming. The notes point out repeated failures in the mid-to-low 70s since early February. That said, support is defined clearly a rising uptrend line from February: around 66,700. This is framed as a support area you do not want broken. If it breaks, the danger becomes a new leg lower similar to what happened back in January to February. A move higher likely requires a clearance of around 75,000. That would put Bitcoin on course towards resistance on the way down around 79,000. Momentum is not flashing red. RSI remains above 50 and also above a rising 50-day line around 60,900. The notes add a practical angle: if you like buying dips, the behaviour above those levels is what would justify it.
Ethereum: converging triangle and a “repeat” from earlier chart regimes
Ethereum is boxed into a converging triangle. The market has failed near the top of the triangle twice, and price is currently stuck in a range between: Approximately 2,290 (current range reference). The 50-day line around 2,084. The key here is confirmation: the notes are explicit about waiting for an end-of-day close outside those parameters. A negative push would mean Ethereum breaks down like it did at the end of January and then heads towards the floor of the channel down to roughly 1,200 over the next month or so. The current hope is that this time it does not repeat.
Gold: fading after testing the 50-day line
Gold has had a “bit of a revival” in the supporting tone, but it has now faded below the 50-day line twice. That is treated as a negative signal and it points towards re-testing supports. Upside cap: around the 50-day line at 4,900. First downside target: 4,550 (April support) Next area down: 4,330. Worst case: retest of the 200-day line around 4,161. The current stance is basically: gold is not broken yet, but it needs respect for the 4,550 to 4,900 corridor. Failures at the 50-day line matter.
Crude oil: trend channel still holds, but price is jumping
WTI remains in a rising trend channel. The notes also tie this to the macro narrative: peace talks failing. Earlier expectations were in the $95 to $105 band. Now the range being discussed is more like: $98 to $108 There was also a gap higher based on the $100 level. The practical note for traders is: if you are not already long, you need to decide whether you can realistically “get on board” towards that $100 area after the gap.
Small – Caps
BSF: needs a 200-day close: T-Rex handbag people are mentioned with BSF as the context, and the chart is described as bouncing above the 50-day line and above RSI 50. The next “make or break” level is: An end-of-day close above the 200-day line around current levels. Only then does it “live up to its promise” heading towards 4.3 pence by the end of next month.
Eco (Atlantic): farm-down news drives a gap higher: EcoAtlantic delivered its farm-down today, described as “good news”, and the chart shows another significant gap higher. Price is now above a resistance reference around 58p. Looking at the top of the channel from December: around 74 p next month or even sooner. Expect 74 to 75p while holding above 58p resistance.
Great Western Mining: above 2p and aiming at the channel top: Great Western Mining is “gushing” in the sentiment notes and has gone through 2p. The resistance and target framing includes: Channel top: around 2.67p. Potential push by the end of this month, especially while above the old January peak around 2.22 p on an end-of-day close basis. The caution is that targets may be running out because multiple levels have already been hit. Even so, the chart levels still point to “up” if the base holds.
IQE: ran to 51p, but now the chart is about staying above the upper 30s: IQE was suggested at around 50 p, and it reached 51 p. The notes imply there may be fewer “obvious” new targets now. The important point is structural: Ideally, price stays above the upper 30s. Since it has “blasted through all the levels” on that setup, the next phase is risk management rather than hunting for fresh targets.
Mercantile Ports: exceeded 2.4p and now the “where to from here” problem: Mercantile Ports is another that has “blown the doors off”. Expectations were roughly: 1.2 p first hoped for, 2.4 p then hoped for and it exceeded that. Now the notes point to a nearby resistance history: Above old 2024 resistance around 2.8 p. Upside markers: Potential as high as 4.2 p (old resistance from 2023). May be as high as 4.3 p as an end-of-month marker
MTI: gap through 61p and aiming into 70p territory: MTI had a strong announcement, gapping up and clearing 61p resistance. The notes frame a longer target: As high as 90p by the end of the year – Old peaks from 2022 around 70p. The near-term plan is to see whether price can hold 60p while it tests through into the 70p+ region.
NEO: bullish divergence and RSI dips, but waits for confirmation: For NEO, the notes describe: Bullish divergence, an RSI dip. The bullish expectation is: Stay above recent lows around 0.52. Head towards the 200-day moving average around 72 by the end of the month. Caution is added for traders who dislike jumping early: wait for an end-of-day close back above RSI 50 before assuming the bullish move is truly on.
Oriole Resources: gap through 50 and 200 day lines: Oriole shows a gap through both the 50 and 200 day lines. The notes say: Above the 50-day line at about 0.31p. Looking for the top of the rising trend channel at 0.40p by the end of the month. There is also a fundamental anchor mentioned: it is associated with 1.23 million ounces as of today’s RNS.
Ondine Biomedical: gaps higher and a falling trend channel break would be bullish: Ondine is described as having a number of upside gaps: an unfilled gap to the upside off the low in January, plus additional gaps in April. An end-of-day close above the top of the falling trend channel from June From around 12.5p to about 18p by the end of next month. It also notes that shares are staying above the 200-day line at 12p, which is supportive for the bulls.
Trellus Health: trying to bounce of the lows, target 0.46p, looking for the 200- day line of 0.62p by the end of May.
Thalia Therap: rising trend channel and “golden cross” conditions: Trellus has a rising trend channel base, with the base top referenced around 0.71 p. The notes tie momentum to moving averages: Rising 50 and 200 day lines with a golden cross setting up. That points to: 0.70p minimum on the upside while above the latest gap around 0.53p
Wildcat: +10% day and an initial target at the 200-day line: Wildcat moved up around 10% in the notes, with a first target framed at the 200-day line around 0.068p. The bullish condition is to remain above the: broken RSI gap and the resistance line from October near 0.04
Zenith: legal headlines, but the chart still needs levels respected: Zenith has ongoing excitement around a potential win against Junisia, but the notes insist on chart structure first. Upside targets are linked to resistance: 11 p while above March resistance around 8.8 to 9 p. 15 p top of the July gap by the end of next month In other words: sentiment can push price, but chart levels determine whether it becomes a trend rather than a spike.
Bottom line: closes and level-holding matter more than headlines
Across indices, crypto, gold, oil, and the AIM names, the recurring message is that confirmation (especially end-of-day closes) matters. Oil is surging and headlines are negative, yet FTSE 100 is only slightly down. Bitcoin’s momentum is still not collapsing, but it has repeatedly failed in the 70s. Ethereum is boxed in a triangle and demands a breakout close. Gold is capped by the 50-day line and needs support to avoid sliding back.
The same principle applies to the small caps: when RSI is above 50 and price is holding above key moving averages or broken resistances, upside targets can still be earned. When it is not, the notes repeatedly call for waiting for the chart to prove itself again.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
