Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most closely followed small caps on the London Stock Exchange. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, DAX, Dow, Bitcoin, Gold, Alien Metals, Audioboom, Cloudbreak, Defence, EnergyPathways, Ferrexpo, First Development, Guardian Metal, Landore, Mila, Vaultz, Wishbone, and Westminster Group.
For this bank holiday weekend edition of Bulletin Board Heroes, I’m running through the charts I’ve been watching: major indices, crypto, gold and a slate of small- and mid-cap stocks that have caught my eye. Below you’ll find my technical read on each market, key support and resistance levels, RSI signals and realistic upside/downside targets into the next few weeks.
Quick market summary
Overall the tone across large-cap indices is constructive: the FTSE 100 and several international indices are trading in rising channels and showing strength. Cryptocurrencies are mixed — Bitcoin is patchy around its recent price zone while Ethereum is outperforming. Gold has been dull but holding a rising channel floor. On UK small caps there are a number of clear technical set-ups — gaps, flag breakouts and RSI 50 rebounds are the recurring themes.
“ “RSI overbought but we don’t really care given how strong the trend is.””
Indices & macro
FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 has pushed up to the red resistance line from May (around 9,330) and managed end-of-day strength above that level. The market is tracking a rising trend channel from June with a realistic upside to about 9,500 by the end of September if the trend stays intact. The RSI is overbought, but the trend has been reliable — the index hasn’t closed below its 50-day moving average since early May.
Key levels:
- Immediate resistance: 9,330
- Trend channel top target: 9,500 by end-September
- Near-term support / channel floor: 9,150
- Worst-case (near 50-day): 8,980
DAX
The DAX is consolidating just below the July resistance line; it’s been frustratingly stuck but structurally bullish. The 50-day moving average is rising around 24,000 with August support near 23,500. Multiple RSI 50 rebounds suggest upside follow-through toward the top of the long spring 2023/24 rising channel.
Target: 25,500 by the end of next month (as long as it holds above the 23,500 area).
Dow Jones
The Dow overcame repeated tests of the 45,000 level and broke out decisively on Friday. That clears the way to test the top of the May 2024 channel — I’m pencilling in 47,500 as a best-case end-September target. A fresh RSI 50 rebound supports the move; downside risk sits at the 50-day around 44,100.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has been bouncing around the old May resistance level near 112,000 (as discussed on the chart). The short-term problem is two RSI failures at the 50 level — that leaves the coin vulnerable until we close back above the 50-day moving average (116,000). A clear close above the 116,000–120,000 band should reopen a run toward the rising channel top — I’m watching 135,000 as a potential target by the end of next month if momentum returns.
Key support: 112,000 then 105,000 (last month’s low).
Ethereum
Ethereum has been outperforming Bitcoin in recent sessions. The first rising channel target near 3,300 was cleared and the next resistance projection is around 4,600. If momentum continues I’m targeting 5,500–5,600 at the upper parallel of the channel by the end of September. Multiple RSI 50+ rebounds and support sitting comfortably above the 50-day moving average underline the strength.
Immediate caveat: an early sustained move back below 4,000 would put those upside objectives at risk; keep an eye on broken resistance around 4,380 as key support.
Commodities
Gold
Gold has been rather range-bound — a logjam in the $3,300–3,400 band since April — but it has bounced off the floor of a rising trend channel. An end-of-day close above the April resistance line (around $3,410) would open a run toward $3,800 by the end of next month. On the downside, I’m looking for the market to hold above $3,200 to remain constructive.
Selected small- & mid-cap stock watchlist
Below I summarise the main setups and the levels I’m watching. These are technical reads: gaps, flag patterns, rising 50/200 moving averages and RSI 50 rebounds are the common catalysts.
- Alien Metals, We hit the initial target on the nose (c. 0.18p). The chart shows a saucer-shaped turnaround and an unfold gap to the upside. Multiple RSI 50 rebounds and recent support sitting above the rising 50-day make this look constructive. While above 0.15 and recent broken resistance 0.25p, a near-term upside target of 0.55 is possible by the end of next month.
- Cloudbreak, which seems to be performing well at the moment. Here the charting situation is the aftermath of an unfilled gap to the upside through a rising 50-day line, having hit our initial target of 0.29. Now we look for our next target of 0.55p by the end of next month. While we remain above the 0.25 area that is Friday’s support.
- Audioboom There’s been some online sniping about the chart call, but the technicals are positive: rising 50- and 200-day moving averages, the run-up to a potential golden cross, a bear-trap gap reversal to kick things off and a couple of RSI 50 rebounds recently. A decisive end-of-day break through the short-term resistance (spoken of as “through £5”) would likely be the trigger for a swifter run higher; I noted a near-term projection in the chart commentary for the upper parallel. The run-up to a golden cross tends to be the strongest part of a cycle — this is the setup here.
- Defence (ALRT) Strong setup: an up-fill gap to the upside, a bull-flag breakout and multiple RSI 50 rebounds. The top of the June channel is the near-term upside target (I referenced the chart target near 8p by next month), provided the shares remain above the price channel floor shown on the chart.
- EnergyPathways I’m intrigued by bullish divergence in the RSI window and a possible W-shaped turnaround. Everything hinges on an end-of-day close through 2.6p — that would open a run toward 3.6p (old July support) as the next target. The downside risk would be a new low below 2p, which would re-open a test of last autumn’s 1.5p area, though that risk is reducing with the current bullish divergence.
- Ferrexpo Technically this has a decent rub: support is coming in above the rising 50-day and we’ve had two RSI 50 rebounds recently. That looks like a bull-flag ahead of a move to the 200-day moving average (71p) over the next 2–4 weeks. A decisive end-of-day close back below the 50-day (49p) would delay the upside scenario.
- First Development On a rising trend channel since listing, the top of the channel sits near 11.4p. As long as the shares remain above the 50- and 200-day area (6.6p) the pattern looks constructive and the market is making the progress we wanted to see.
- Guardian Metal (GMET) A very clean weekly RNS and a solid technical picture: an adjusted rising trend channel since last May with a near-term upside target toward 103p while the stock remains above the recent broken resistance of 68p. A notable long-term shareholder was referenced on the register which gives extra market confidence.
- Landore Potential turnaround after a bounce off a broadening triangle base. There’s bullish divergence in the RSI window against a falling share price, and a break of the old July support (2.65p) could be a cue for a move toward the 200-day line (3.5p) through September.
- Mila is making progress above recent resistance; the longer it remains above 0.65p that zone the greater the chance of a retest of 1.20p the upper resistance region (chart referenced June resistance) into the end of next month. An RSI 50 rebound is in place as a leading indicator.
- Vaultz Capital We saw a bounce off the floor of a falling trend channel and a lift to the 200-day moving average (around 6.4p). Initial upside target shown on the chart is 12.75p over the next couple of weeks; best case into the end of next month was near 15p, provided the shares stay on the right side of the 200-day line. The RSI needs to clear neutral 50 to confirm further strength.
- Wishbone (New Greatland Gold) Probably the star of this watchlist at the moment — we hit the stated target right on the end-of-day and end-of-week close. That leaves a search for the next clear resistance: the chart favours a move toward 2.15p by the end of next month while remaining above the recent support around 1.25p (on an end-of-day close basis).
- Westminster Group The stock is trading in a rising trend channel based on the 200-day moving average (1.9p). Friday’s 10% rebound was encouraging and the chart allows for upside to 3.75p by the end of next month if we can re-close above the 50-day (2.3p) and remain on the right side of the 200-day. RSI has closed back above neutral 50, so keep an ear out for contract news.
Key technical themes to watch
- RSI 50 rebounds: these have been leading indicators for a number of the bullish setups mentioned (DAX, Dow, Ethereum, several small caps).
- Rising 50-day moving averages: many of the indices and stocks are holding above their 50-day — a clear sign of medium-term trend health.
- Gap and flag structures: up-fill gaps and bull-flag breakouts are acting as catalysts for several small-cap rallies.
- Critical end-of-day closes: in several cases (EnergyPathways, Ferrexpo, Bitcoin, Westminster) the next directional clue will depend on a clean end-of-day close through specific levels.
Bottom line
Technically the picture is constructive across a number of major indices and selected smaller names. Watch the specific end-of-day levels I’ve highlighted — those closes will determine whether the next moves are continuation plays or false break retraces. I’ll be watching for follow-through in the indices and the crypto 50-day levels, plus fresh news catalysts for the smaller names (contract wins, RNSs) that often accelerate moves once the technical backdrop is in place.
More updates during the week — stay tuned and trade with clear levels and risk management.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.
