This week, I believe, should be relatively volatile from Tuesday onwards. There are all sorts of data releases, including GDP numbers, inflation figures, interest rate announcements and confidence measures, from around the world to give the FX market a bit of a heartbeat after several weeks of tight ranges.
Late Monday evening Japan announces her inflation metrics. Both headline and core inflation are likely to print below 3% Y.o.Y for January. Previous (2.6% and 2.3%).
For those who start early on Tuesday morning (at 7am UK time) German GFK Consumer Confidence for March will be released. Expectations are for a slightly more positive outlook (-29 vs previous of negative 29.7). Shortly afterwards at 7.45am, French Consumer Confidence will be released (previous +91).
On Tuesday afternoon the focus will be on the US. Durable Goods orders are set to fall by nearly 5% (M.o.M) for January. US Consumer Confidence is likely to stay unchanged at 114.8 for February.
Wednesday starts off with a Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest rate decision; expect unchanged at 5.5%. Pay heed to the following press conference for clues about the RBNZ’s thinking.
US 4th quarter GDP (2nd estimate) is the afternoon’s key data release. Expectations are for a revision to 3.3% from 4.9%.
Thursday will be busy! Early on, French (7.45am) and Spanish (8.am) preliminary inflation numbers Y.o.Y for Feb will be released. Previously these were 3.1% for France and 3.4% for Spain. Swiss 4th quarter GDP (annualized) is out at 8am (previous 0.3%). The German unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.8% (release at 8.55am). German inflation is forecast to fall to 2.6% (due at 1pm). At 1.30pm Canadian GDP (annualized for Q4) is forecast to be positive 0.8%. Simultaneously, US Core PCE for January is expected to decline to 2.8% (this is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and will rock markets on release)!
On Friday, Euro area Core Inflation (flash) Y.o.Y Feb will be released and is expected to fall to 2.9% from January’s 3.3%. In the afternoon US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to increase to 49.5 from January’s 49.1. Similarly, Michigan Consumer Sentiment is forecast to improve to 79.6 from January’s 79.
Plenty to get excited about!
Good Luck and Good trading!
Ben Robson is Head of Institutional E-FX at Swiss Finance Corporation. He is also the Amazon Best Selling Author of Currency Kings – How Billion traders Made their Fortune Trading Forex. McGraw Hill 2017
