We start the week with many Asian countries celebrating Chinese New Year!
According to the Bank of International Settlements 2022 Survey USDCNY, USDHKD and USDSGD make up about 11.3% of daily FX volumes. In the absence of any startling economic information on Monday, be prepared for a quiet day!
Figures wise, things get more interesting from Tuesday onwards. UK employment numbers (December) are first up at 7.00 am Tuesday morning. UK unemployment is expected to have risen to 4.0%. German and Eurozone ZEW Economic sentiment figures are released at 10.am (UK). Consensus estimates are for a more joyful outlook. US inflation data (January) is the economic release of the week. Headline inflation is expected to drop to 3% and Core inflation to 3.8%.
On Wednesday, by contrast, UK inflation (January) is expected to rise; Headline 4.2% and Core 5.2%. Eurozone GDP estimates for Q2 are for a slight increase to about zero or 0.1%! Later in the evening Japanese GDP (Q4) is expected to move in to positive territory for an annual reading of 1.4% (vs previous -2.1%).
We start Thursday morning with Australian employment data (January). Australians are hoping for a large turnaround from last month which was dire. Expectations are for 30,000 new jobs although the unemployment rate is likely to tick up to 4%. UK GDP (Y.oY December) is expected to be more positive at 0.4% vs November’s 0.2%.
Friday’s main event is US Retail Sales which are expected to drop (M.o.M) for January to negative 0.1% from December’s positive 0.6%.
Lots of interesting UK data as well as two really timely US economic releases. Cable (GBPUSD) could be volatile this week!
Good Luck and Good trading!
Ben Robson is Head of Institutional E-FX at Swiss Finance Corporation. He is also the Amazon Best Selling Author of Currency Kings – How Billion traders Made their Fortune Trading Forex. McGraw Hill 2017
