SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 4th February 2026

Copper holds gains as Cochilco sees deficit of 238kt in 2026

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Alpha Exploration (ALEX CN) – Assay results from Aburna return 10m at 3g/t Au

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Debt free following settlement of Riverfort loan for shares

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – Groundwater results show Soda Ash potential from sodium-carbonate-dominant brine system in Botswana

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Initial metallurgical results from the recently acquired Head Prospect

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Revised 2025 production guidance achieved

Glencore (GLEN LN) – Transaction with Orion and US Government implies $9bn EV for DRC copper assets

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – Operations update

PMET Resources* (PMT AU) – Caesium zone expanded at CV13 pegmatite

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Promising uranium target generation in Saskatchewan

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – High-grade copper-silver intercepted at Mushima North, Exploration Target due soon

Copper ($13,360/t) holds gains as Cochilco sees deficit of 238kt in 2026

• Copper prices have held over $13,300/t following a highly volatile week.
• Prices peaked c.$14,500/t before sliding below $13,000/t on Friday, bouncing back this week.
• Chile’s copper commission Cochilco boosted its average copper price from $4.55/lb to $4.95/lb ($6/lb today)
• The world’s largest copper producer sees $5/lb average in 2027.
• Cochilco forecasts demand to grow by 2.7% in 2026, rising by 2.8% in 2027.
• The group sees a refined copper deficit of 238kt in 2026 and a return to a surplus of 51kt in 2027.
• Elsewhere, Trafigura has taken profits on Atalaya, trimming its 20% stake via a $178m block trade.
• Glencore is looking to shutdown its Horne Smelter in Quebec as arsenic levels cause an impasse with the regional government.
• Chinese officials have committed to further boost consumption in the economy, cutting rates and providing public spending plan expansions of $51bn.
• Bloomberg reports traders pulled extra spot cargoes of copper into China last week as the arbitrage into China closed.
• We suspect the SRB, State Reserve Bureau of China is feeding copper into the market.

Tianqi Lithium plans a sale of an up to 1.25% stake in SQM potentially raising US$206m.

• Sale proceeds are planned to be directed towards existing and future operations.
• Tianqi first bought into SQM in 2018 and currently holds nearly 22%.
• The Company earlier in the day released a filing that said its Board authorised its management to sell its stake in SQM in full “within one year and at an appropriate time”, Bloomberg reports.
• The filing was later replaced with a version without reference for the additional sale.
• The conflict between Tianqi and SQM came to light recently as a Chinese counterparty argued against an SQM/Codelco tie up and argued that the deal should go for a shareholder vote.

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel’s John Meyer

Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1830/eur vs 1.1816/eur previous. Yen 156.47/$ vs 155.46/$. SAr 15.948/$ vs 15.949/$. $1.372/gbp vs $1.369/gbp. 0.703/aud vs 0.704/aud. CNY 6.937/$ vs 6.936/$

Dollar Index 97.33 vs 97.47 previous

Economics

Australia is considering price floors for critical materials including REE, Resources Minister Madeleine King said at a press conference in Washington DC.

• The policy planned to address shortages in industries dominated by China attracting development investment into upstream and midstream operations.
• The programme would rely on support from Export Finance Australia, the government’s export credit agency./

US – The US shot down an Iranian drone that approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

• An F-35C fighter jet took down the drone approaching the carrier.
• Oil prices climbed more than $1/bbl on the news.
• In a separate incident, two IRGC boats are reported to have tried to board a US flagged merchant tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Ordered to stop the engine and prepare to be boarded, the tanker instead sped up and was escorted by a US Navy warship out of the area.

The House passed a funding package to end the brief government shutdown that began Saturday.

• President Trump signed the bill later on Tuesday extending funding of the government that lapsed at the weekend.

China – Private business gauge indicated a pick up in the growth rate in January driven both by manufacturing and services sector, although, the former expanded only marginally.

• RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: (Jan / Dec / Est): 50.3 / 50.1 / 50.0
• RatingDog Services PMI: (Jan / Dec / Est): 52.3 / 52.0 / 52.0
• RatingDog Composite PMI: (Jan / Dec / Est): 51.6 / 51.3 / NA

Eurozone – Inflation slowed to the lowest since September 2024 with core measure also seen slowing down

• CPI (%yoy, Jan / Dec / Est): 1.7 / 1.9 / 1.7
• Core CPI (%yoy, Jan / Dec / Est): 2.2 / 2.3 / 2.3

UK – Revelations about Lord Mandleson and Jeffrey Epstein continue to astound

• News that Mandelson plotted with Epstein to oust Gordon Brown is interesting
• Had they succeeded the UK might have and extra ~400t of gold in the Bank of England
• This equates to US$71.5bn of gold and US$56bn of lost value, equating to US$812 for every man woman and child in the official population

Precious metals:         

Gold US$5,084/oz vs US$4,941/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.3moz vs 100.4moz previous

Platinum US$2,329/oz vs US$2,277/oz previous

Palladium US$1,819/oz vs US$1,820/oz previous

Silver US$90.2/oz vs US$87.7/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 850.1moz vs 818.4moz previous

Rhodium US$10,575/oz vs US$10,550/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,442/t vs US$13,435/t previous

Aluminium US$3,100/t vs US$3,098/t previous

Nickel US$17,475/t vs US$17,325/t previous

Zinc US$3,319/t vs US$3,333/t previous

Lead US$1,960/t vs US$1,976/t previous

Tin US$49,475/t vs US$48,600/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$67.6/bbl vs US$66.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices gained after the US military shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea, as the API estimated an unexpected 11mb w/w oil inventory draw to US stocks (+0.7mb exp) due to last week’s cold weather disrupting domestic oil production.
• European energy prices edged higher as France’s nuclear generation fell 4% w/w to 83% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity to supply 61.6% of the country’s electricity demand, with renewable sources contributing a further 30%.

Natural Gas €33.5/MWh vs €32.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $90.3/lb vs $94.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$102.8/t vs US$102.2/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.2/t vs US$466.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$245.8/t vs US$247.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$115.3/t vs US$116.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$106,670/t vs US$105,605/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$20,325/t vs US$20,328/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,075/t vs US$2,135/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,473/mtu vs US$1,433/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$118/lb vs US$117/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vs US$5.7/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,132/t vs US$1,132/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$367.5/t vs US$367.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company News:

Alpha Exploration (ALEX CN) C$0.5, Mkt Cap C$47m – Assay results from Aburna return 10m at 3g/t Au

• Etritrea gold explorer Alpha report drilling results from 1,460m of drilling at the Aburna Gold Project.
• The Company has focused drilling on three prospects, Central, Hill 52 and Northeast.
• Assay highlights include:
  • ABRD189: 10m at 3.12g/t Au from 181m
  • ABD026: 5m at 3.6g/t Au from 91m
• Management notes that 90% of mineralisation at Aburna intercepted to date has been less than 120m below surface.
• As a result, the team is focused on exploring further gold mineralisation at depth.
• CEO John Wilton states that 80% of the 7km anomalous gold trend at Aburna remains untested by drilling.

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 2.05p, Mkt Cap £54m – Debt free following settlement of Riverfort loan for shares

• Ariana Resources reports that it has now settled its outstanding £783k loan to Riverfort Global Opportunities via the issue of ~40.4m shares.
• We estimate that the shares represent around 1.5% of the enlarged company.
• Today’s announcement confirms that this now leaves Ariana Resources debt free and with ~£5.5m in cash “at 31 December 2025”.
• As a result, Riverfort has lifted its “first ranking general security … over the Company and certain subsidiaries. The Company will, however, retain access to the remaining undrawn US$3 million of the original US$5 million under the Facility Agreement, should it require additional loan financing during the next 3 years as it continues to advance the Dokwe Gold Project in Zimbabwe”.
• Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener expressed appreciation for Riverfort’s support over the last year in providing “working capital to enable the Company to advance its Dokwe Gold Project in Zimbabwe and to help facilitate our ASX dual-listing”.
• He also commented that “We are now very much on track for the successful delivery of major project milestones in the year ahead, and the support of RiverFort in the lead-up to this has been an important part of our long-term strategy”.

Conclusion: Ariana Resources is now debt free following repayment of outstanding loans due to Riverfort.

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 27.2p, Mkt Cap £4.4m – Groundwater results show Soda Ash potential from sodium-carbonate-dominant brine system in Botswana

Aterian also holds a 90% in Atlantis Metals which holds its licenses in Botswana

• Aterian plc report early-stage groundwater reconnaissance and sampling results from the Sua Pan lithium brine project in Botswana.
• The 15-sample programme confirms the presence of highly saline, alkaline, sodium-rich Na-Cl to Na-Ca-Cl type brines typical of evaporative pan and pan-margin environments.
• The presence of a sodium-carbonate-dominant brine system is consistent with natural soda ash–style deposits.
  • Total Dissolved Solids of up to ~106,400 mg/L indicate strong evaporitic brine concentration and favourable brine maturity.
  • Strong sodium–carbonate chemistry identified, including:
  • Sodium up to ~63,250 mg/L with very high alkalinity (up to ~22,577 mg/L as CaCO₃)
  • Very low calcium and magnesium in the most saline brines, favourable for soda-type systems.
  • Brine chemistry consistent with soda ash style systems (sodium-carbonate-dominant) exploited for industrial sodium carbonate production.
  • Results introduce a potentially value-accretive industrial minerals opportunity, independent of lithium or other critical mineral outcomes.
  • Distinct hydro chemical groupings identified, providing a clear technical basis for development-oriented follow-up work.
• Soda ash is used in glass manufacturing, detergents, chemical processing and energy transition supply chains.
• Prices range between $150-300/t for 99.2% purity with ~$350/t in Europe and $160-200/t in Asia.
• Food grade sodium carbonate carries a premium
• Further work will be required to evaluate the potential for economic extraction and potential monetisation of the prospect.
• While there is little if any lithium in this part of the license, lithium may occur elsewhere in the basin
• Morocco: Aterian Plc is also working on target generation following the identification of a series of structural targets with potential for meaningful copper resources.
• The team are working through recent exploration data and is planning a detailed ground / drone-based magnetic surveys across three target areas to refine future drill targets.
• Rwanda: Management continue to develop their trading business in Rwanda while also looking to explore licenses in the region.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.45p, Mkt Cap £42m – Initial metallurgical results from the recently acquired Head Prospect

• Cobra Resources reports that metallurgical tests by Australia’s Nuclear Scientific Technology Organisation (ANSTO) on historic samples from the recently acquired Head Prospect, close to the company’s Boland rare earths project in South Australia have shown comparable rare-earths recovery rates to early-stage results from Boland.
• The company says that tests on material held in “the South Australian core library yielded excellent recoveries from the target horizon – the Pidinga Formation” at the 85km2 Head Prospect located around 20km south of Boland.
• Today’s announcement reports ‘diagnostic’ recovery rates of 48% for neodymium, 47% for praseodymium, 54% for terbium and 50% for samarium in a composite drillhole sample “with a … grade of 977ppm Total Rare Earth Oxide (“TREO”) (160ppm Neodymium (“Nd”) + Praseodymium (“Pr”) and 17ppm Dy +Tb)”.
• Commenting that Cobra Resource now holds “over 3,200km … [possibly 3,200km²] … of prospective geology … [Managing Director, Rupert Verco, described the results from the Head Prospect as] … another important step in our strategy to define a scalable resource across our significant palaeochannel landholding”.
• The company has previously discussed plans to start drilling the Head Prospect during March/April and the announcement today confirms that “Planning and land access negotiations are underway to enable step out resource focused drilling … in March 2026”.

Conclusion: Testing of historic samples from the recently acquired Head Prospect show similar recovery rates to the company’s nearby Boland rare earths project.  Drilling of the prospect is expected to start in March.

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) 3.79p, Mkt Cap £4.0m – Revised 2025 production guidance achieved

• Reporting Q4 2025 production of 20,961 carats of diamonds, Gem Diamonds confirms full year 2025 output of 90,354 carats of diamonds from its Letšeng mine in Lesotho (2024 – 105,012 carats).
• Production included nine individual diamonds larger than 100 carats (2024 – 13 >100 carats) and today’s announcement also reports the recovery of a 193 carat white type II diamond this year.
• The annual production results from the processing of ~5.2mt of ore at an average grade of 1.74 carats/hundred tonnes (cpht) compared to 2024 processing of ~5.0mt at a grade of 2.09cpht.
• The company confirms that “All operational metrics were within or ahead of the revised guidance announced on 23 July 2025 … [with] … Direct cash costs (before waste) per tonne treated and operating cost per tonne treated … at the lower end of the guidance range” of 220-225 Maloti per tonne.
• Gem Diamond says that the cost performance reflects “the successful outcome of the operational and cost management measures implemented in H2 in response to market conditions”.
• Diamond sales in 2025 amounted to 88,381 carats at an average price of US$1,105/carat (2024 – 109 967 carats sold for US$1 390 per carat).
• The announcement confirms that the “highest price achieved in the Period was US$66 602 per carat for an 8.83 carat pink diamond … [and that] … Six diamonds sold for more than US$1.0 million each during the Period, contributing US$9.2 million”.

Conclusion: Gem Diamonds achieved its revised 2025 production guidance implemented in July following cost-cutting in response to the weaker global rough diamond market which saw prices for the company’s diamonds decline by around 20% Y-o-Y.

Glencore (GLEN LN) 520p, Mkt Cap £61bn – Transaction with Orion and US Government implies $9bn EV for DRC copper assets

• Glencore reported yesterday it has signed an MoU with Orion CMC to sell a 40% stake in their DRC copper assets.
• The transaction reportedly implies a combined EV of $9bn for Mumi and KCC.
• Orion CMC is backed by the US Government, and the deal will secure ‘critical minerals for the United States and its partners.’
• Glencore will continue to operate the assets.
• The Group will also look to expand both assets alongside the DRC Government and existing partner Gécamines.
• US Deputy Secretary State states the transaction ‘reflects the core objectives of the US-DRC Strategic Partnership Agreement by encouraging greater US investment in the DRC’s mining sector.’
• Glencore CEO Gary Nagle states the deal recognises ‘Glencore’s role as the only major Western producer of copper and Cobalt in the DRC.’
• DRC Asset Overview:
  • Produced 248kt Cu and 34kt Co in 2025, up 10% and down 5% respectively yoy
  • KCC targeting increased production to 280ktpa CuEq by 2028
  • Glencore sees LOM potential expansion to 420ktpa CuEq from KCC over an 18 uear LOM via ore sorting optimisation, underground sulphide acceleration and increased land access
  • Mumi sulphide expansion sees 182ktpa CuEq potential over 25 year LOM starting in 2031, CAPEX guided at $400m.
  • Mumi exploration potential at adjacent Kansuki lease

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 1.3p, Mkt Cap ?13M – Operations update

• The Company released an operational update for the Homase Gold Mine in Ghana.
• The Company poured 385oz of gold at the end of January 2026.
• Mining of oxide material from Pit 3 started.
• Pad 6 construction progressing as planned.
• Grade control drilling underway at Pit 5 and Pit 6.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Goldstone Resources

PMET Resources* (PMT AU) A$0.66, Mkt Cap A$1.1bn – Caesium zone expanded at CV13 pegmatite

• PMET, currently developing the Shaakichiuwaanaan Project in Quebec, report drilling results from their Vega Zone target.
• Drilling was conducted at the CV13 Pegmatite, which lies outside of the current 84.3mt Mineral Reserve at 1.26% Li2O.
• Highlight intercepts from Vega include:
  • CV25-948: 28m at 1.47% Li2O, 8.05% Cs2O and 225ppm Ta2O5 from 117m
  • CV25-1006: 2.9m at 0.97% Li2O, 10.9% Cs2O and 911ppm Ta2O5 from 151m and 9m at 4.57% Li2O, 0.96% Cs2O and 166ppm Ta2O5 from 202m
  • CV25-1010: 16m at 2.82% Li2O, 1.43% Cs2O and 114ppm Ta2O5 from 131m
  • CV25-1023: 18m at 2.31% Li2O, 7.1% Cs2O and 206ppm Ta2O5 from 138m
• PMET’s Shaakichiuwaanaan project holds the world’s largest in-situ pollucite-hosted caesium pegmatite MRE, with 1.7mt at 2.4% Cs2O inferred.
• The majority of holes reported overnight were infill holes targeting the central high-grade core in the Vega Zone.
• Management states that the assay results have increased the interpreted width and footprint of the caesium mineralisation at Vega.
• The PMET team is now focused on advancing the geological model for the Project, focusing on the CV5 and CV13 pegmatite zones, as it works towards a subsequent MRE.
• An updated Feasibility Study is due 2H26 for CV5 pegmatite.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in PMET

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 16p, Mkt Cap £18m – Promising uranium target generation in Saskatchewan

• Power Metal Resources provides an update on their Bathaga project in Saudi Arabia.
• The Company has acquired a 20% shareholding in the project via initial expenditure.
• POW is now beginning its exploration programme to earn 30% in the project.
• Bathaga covers 1,290km2 and is prospective for granite-related mineralisation, including tin, tungsten, lithium, beryllium, molybdenum, niobium, tantalum and REE.
• The upcoming programme will consist of two phases to delineate drill targets, including:
  • Mapping
  • Rock chip sampling
  • Infill soil geochemistry
• Phase 1 is starting now and Phase 2 will continue after Ramadan in mid-March.
• Focus will be on the anomalous Huqban intrusion corridor, and an expert in the field from SRK will join the exploration team for the programme.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Power Metal Resources

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.12p, Mkt Cap £4.64m – High-grade copper-silver intercepted at Mushima North, Exploration Target due soon

• Tertiary Minerals reports further assay results from their Target A1 at Mushima North in Zambia.
• Today the company reports preliminary pXRF assay results from four holes.
• Holes were drilled vertically to a maximum depth of 127m to test the northern extent of the mineralised footprint.

• Highlights include:

o   25TMNRC-042: 3m at 0.37% CuEq from 48m

o   25TMNRC-043: 97m at 1.42% CuEq from 6m

o   25TMNRC-044: 5m at 0.41% CuEq from 10m, 11m at 0.54% CuEq from 20m, 7m at 0.45% CuEq from 35m and 17m at 0.6% CuEq from 51m

• Tertiary suggests that silver mineralisation spreads over 450m x 400m with depths now extended from 84m to 103m.
• Importantly, the Company notes that the mineralised footprint is open to the northwest, south/southeast and at depth.
• The JORC Exploration Target for Mushima North is due to be completed in the coming weeks.

Conclusion: Hole 25TMNRC-043 represents the best and highest grading interception to date at Mushima North, with highlight intervals of 13m at 77g/t Ag and 1.46% Cu. Tertiary sees Mushima North as a potential bulk tonnage, open pit silver prospect, and is set to publish a JORC Exploration Target in the coming weeks. We see ample expansion potential at the current 450m x 400m x 100m mineralised footprint, which has yet to be tested effectively at depth and to the northwest and south/southeast. The discovery of Mushima North marks a step change for Tertiary in our view, who have spent several years advancing their Zambian greenfield exploration portfolio with methodical exploration and derisking.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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