SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 25th February 2026

Base metals power higher on substantial open interest in Shanghai this morning as traders return from their Lunar New Year break

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Amaroq (AMRQ LN) – Ramp up year sees production guided at 25-35koz

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – Debt restructuring removes £4m of liabilities

Capital Limited (CAPD LN) – New contract developments in drilling, mining and laboratory operations

Collective Mining (CNL CN) – Encouraging assays from Ramp Zone bolster geological model

Elevra (ELV AU) – Revenues climb as stronger lithium prices compensate for a drop in volumes

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) – LG is selling its stake

Ongwe Minerals* (OGW CN) – Omatjete land package increased by 42%

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Further drilling results highlight resource expansion potential at Redmoor

Base metals power higher on substantial open interest in Shanghai this morning as traders return from their Lunar New Year break

• This is particularly unusual as Chinese traders normally wait weeks or even months before seasonal restocking
• So why is this year different?
  • China is moving to support its economy through growth in key areas, such as AI, EVs, Robotics, Solar and other high-tech industrial developments
  • With a particular focus on delivering strong growth in power and related infrastructure to support substantial growth in AI and datacentres.
  • A big part of this involves greater power supply and grid stability work including better power connections and battery storage.
  • The move will support the rollout of fast-charging EV networks with increasing numbers of electric lorries on Chinese roads.
• If China is half as successful in AI as it has been in EV and solar manufacturing then the West is going to feel substantially left behind.
  • Anthropic accused three Chinese firms, DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and MiniMax of using ‘distillation’ to illicitly extract information and capabilities from its Claude chatbot through ~16m exchanges and 24,000 fake accounts circumventing US tech export controls.
  • Management accused the Chinese companies of industrial-scale intellectual property theft.
  • OpenAI also reported similar ‘distillation’ events.

Gold ($5,189/oz) holds higher level as silver jumps on return of Chinese traders

• Gold prices have consolidated higher, settling above the $5,150/oz mark.
• The metal is making steady progress following the late January sell-off, where it fell nearly $1000/oz.
• The sell-off was triggered by a combination of extreme leverage, causing brokers to hike margin requirements, and the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed nominee.
• Whilst the dollar has held lower, gold has seen sustained strength.
• US Treasuries have rallied on encouraging deflation indicators.
• Silver has resumed its rally, breaking out above $90/oz, having touched recent lows of $67/oz amid a wave of heavy margin calls, with retail traders suffering.

Rare Earths – China restricted exports of rare earth magnets and other critical materials to dozens of Japanese companies with immediate effect.

• The Commerce Ministry froze shipments of ‘dual use’ materials to 20 firms with another 20 added to a new ‘watch list’ (FT).
• The decision is meant to ”curb Japan’s remilitarisation and nuclear ambitions’, the Ministry said.
• The announcement follows PM Takaichi comments late last year that a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan could pose an “existential threat” to Japan, suggesting Tokyo may respond with armed force.
• Beijing is reported to have hardened its stance following a landslide victory of Takaichi in latest elections.
• ‘Dual use’ materials include gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite, advanced manufacturing equipment and machine tools, REE and magnetic materials, as well as battery-related materials.
• Beijing is demanding Japan commit to not allow the use of those materials in the defence sector.

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel’s John Meyer

Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Economics

US – President Trump delivered the longest State of the Union address (1h47m) yesterday.

• On Iran, Trump said that “his preference is to solver this problem through diplomacy”, but warned Tehran is not giving up ambitions for a nuclear weapons programme.
• On tariffs, President called the Supreme Court “unfortunate” pledging to find alternative ways to continue with the tariff agenda.
• Market prediction platform sees odds of a strike on Iran at ~75% this year.
• Witkoff is expected to hold talks with Iranian delegation in Geneva tomorrow.
• The Supreme Court decision does take away one of the main tools the administration used to negotiate trade deals with counterparties.

Japan – Prime Minister, Takaichi voiced concerns over further BoJ rate hikes.

• This is despite renewed Yen weakness.
• Ongoing low interest rates in Japan are good for the Yen-dollar carry trade

Currencies

US$1.1795/eur vs 1.1784/eur previous. Yen 156.10/$ vs 156.25/$. SAr 15.902/$ vs 16.034/$. $1.352/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.710/aud vs 0.707/aud. CNY 6.867/$ vs 6.887/$

Dollar Index 97.75 vs 97.90 previous

Precious metals:

Gold US$5,192/oz vs US$5,173/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.7moz vs 100.4moz previous

Platinum US$2,303/oz vs US$2,154/oz previous

Palladium US$1,821/oz vs US$1,741/oz previous

Silver US$90.9/oz vs US$87.9/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 825.9moz vs 815.1moz previous

Rhodium US$12,100/oz vs US$11,750/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,285/t vs US$13,059/t previous

Aluminium US$3,124/t vs US$3,111/t previous

Nickel US$17,920/t vs US$17,680/t previous

Zinc US$3,413/t vs   US$3,398/t previous

Lead US$1,971/t vs US$1,956/t previous

Tin US$52,870/t vs US$48,565/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$70.9/bbl vs US$71.5/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged lower after the API estimated that US oil inventories surged by 11.4mb w/w, much higher than the 1.85mb/d expected, partly offset by draws of 2.8mb to distillate and 1.5mb to gasoline stocks.
• European energy prices were broadly unchanged as France’s nuclear generation fell 3% w/w to 81% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.
• EOG plans to hold 4Q25 oil production of ~0.55mb/d flat through 2026, based on a $6.3-$6.7bn capex budget to grow oil output by 5% y/y total output by 13% y/y to ~1.4mboe/d, which targets $4.5bn in free cash flow at strip pricing.

Natural Gas €30.8/MWh vs €31.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $88.6/lb vs  $88.9/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$98.8/t vs US$96.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.9/t vs US$465.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$245.0/t vs US$245.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$117.3/t vs US$119.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$128,873/t vs US$123,423/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$20,751/t vs US$20,111/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,648/mtu vs US$1,648/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$151/lb vs US$141/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.5/kg vs US$27.0/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$263/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,143/t vs US$1,140/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Changan to launch first production-passenger car with sodium-ion battery in 2026

• Changan Automobile has partnered with battery maker CATL and will launch the Nevo A06 later this year, the first passenger car to feature a sodium battery.
• CATL’s ‘Naxtra’ cells achieve an energy density of approx. 175Wh/kg, nearly matching current LFP battery energy densities.
• The cells also charge to 80% in around 15mins and can operate in temperatures between -40°C and 70°C.
• The Changan Nevo A06 will feature a 45kWh sodium-ion pack, delivering a range of over 400km.

Nio breaks single-day battery swap service record for 5^th consecutive day over Chinese holiday

• Auto and battery maker Nio had seen record usage of its battery swap stations in China, across the 2026 Chinese Spring Festival holiday period.
• The company has seen record figures six time over the last 10 days, with five consecutive days of record battery swaps recorded in the last five days.
• On Sunday, the fifth day of record battery swaps, Nio announced that 177,627 battery swaps had taken place across the country.
• China’s 2026 Spring Festival holiday period is a peak travel season so the company sees spikes in battery swaps.

Aston Martin to cut jobs by 20% as it looks to recover from impact of US tariffs

• The British luxury car maker will cut its workforce by 20%, around 3,000 employees, as it struggles to recover from the impact of US tariffs and weakened demand in China.
• Aston Martin said the cuts will deliver annualised savings of £40m.
• The company has also delayed significant investment in EV technology, cutting its five-year spending plan from £2bn to £1.7bn.

Company News:

Amaroq (AMRQ LN) 115p, Mkt Cap £522m – Ramp up year sees production guided at 25-35koz

• Greenland-focused gold producer Amaroq provides a 2026 production update.
• The Company forecasts FY26 gold production from Nalunaq at 25-35koz.
• Amaroq is starting up Phase 2 flotation in 2Q26, with gold production expected to be 2H26 weighted.
• Company expects flotation circuit to boost recoveries from 60% to 90-95%.
• Grade expected to average 14-15g/t Au through the year.
• Full year cash costs expected at $44-47m and AISC guided at $69-73m.
• Company also expects $14m of Nalunaq non-sustaining CAPEX as it completes the processing plant construction, invests in underground equipment and adds to camp facilities.
• Exploration continues, with $11m allocated with the ability to increase to $29m based on market conditions.
• Focus on West Greenland Hub and Black Angel to update technical studies and target Phase 1 mining in 2028.
• At Nanoq, exploration focused on resource development, to support a maiden MRE.
• Underground resource definition drilling planned at Nalunaq to support replacement of mining inventory.
• Geophysical work planned at Minturn IOCG to assess scale of mineralisation.
• Company reports cash balance of C$27m, undrawn credit of C$9m and net debt of C$15m.
• Management expects ‘strong free cash flow from operations, supporting comprehensive exploration programmes.’

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) 6.19p, Mkt Cap £3m – Debt restructuring removes £4m of liabilities

• Anglesey Mining report th restructuring of and refocussing of their mineral portfolio.
• Management have effectively sold the Grängesberg Iron licenses and the stake in Labrador Iron Mines Holdings Limited to Energold.
• The sale effectively wipes out ~£4m in debt owed to Energold off the Anglesey balance sheet.
• The restructuring now leaves management free to focus on its Parys Mountain copper-zinc-lead-gold project in Anglesey.
• Rob Marsden, the ceo, is now focussing on regional aerial geophysics to be followed by ground surveys.
  • Shaft dewatering as part of overall mine development
  • Updating of current JORC-compliant mineral resources model with existing core log analysis
  • Continuing to develop our plans for an innovative pumped storage scheme with RheEnergise
• Energold also invested £350,000 in exchangeable warrants in Anglesey at 7.6p in December as part of the restructuring.
• Anglesey also rolled up it shares in a 1 for 10 consolidation on 13 February which also allows Energold the right but not the obligation to exchange some or all of its warrants for ordinary shares on a one-to-one basis.
• If Energold exercise all its warrants it would hold 26.6% of the enlarged share capital of Anglesey.
• RheEnergise LoI paves the way for RheEnergise to progress development of a hydro-power storage project in one of the shafts at the Parys Mountain mine.
• The energy storage system is akin to normal pumped storage but uses a high-density fluid for greater efficiency in limited spaces with the site set to be the first commercial deployment of the High Density Hydro System.
• Management’s priority remains the development of the Parys Mountain mine.

Capital Limited (CAPD LN) 148.5p, Mkt Cap £348m – New contract developments in drilling, mining and laboratory operations

• Capital Limited report a “highly favourable demand environment” for their services
• Mining, Capital Limited has restarted waste stripping mining at the Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt using their remaining fleet at site.
• Drilling a 5-year grade control drilling contract has been secured with Montage Gold in the Ivory Coast.
• Laboratory assays: Capital’s MSALABS unit has also secured a multi-year contract with Equinox Gold which ties in with the decision to build a new commercial laboratory in Newfoundland with another PhotonAssayTM unit.
• MSALABS has been awarded a 3-year contract with IAMGOLD’s Westwood mine through our commercial laboratory in Val d’Or; and
• Management will update 2026 guidance within their FY2025 results on 19th March.

Conclusion: There are investors who prefer to buy the ‘shovels’ and ‘contractors’ rather than invest directly into mining. Capital Limited fulfils both criteria and is well positioned to make strong gains in the current environment. We look forward to further growth in management guidance on 19^th March.

Collective Mining (CNL CN) C$27, Mkt Cap C$2.51bn – Encouraging assays from Ramp Zone bolster geological model

• Colombian gold explorer Collective reports drilling results from the Ramp Zone within the wider Apollo System.
• The Company is boosting their understanding og the Partially Reduced Intrusion Related System enriched in gold, silver, copper and tungsten.
• Yesterday’s drilling returned highlights of:
  • APC150-D1: 54.6m at 7.04g/t Au, 16g/t Ag from 379m (inc. 11.4g/t Au and 22g/t Ag over 18m).
  • Company reports the hole ended in high-grade mineralisation.
• Furthermore, an unassayed hole APC140-D5, drilled on the western margin of the breccia body, returned 20m of Ramp Zone style mineralisatoin.
• Company believes if these assays confirm gold mineralisation, it boosts the chance that Ramp Zone mineralisatoin could ‘encircle the breccia’s entire circumference.’
• Management has agreed to boost drill rig capacity to five from three currently to boost exploration of the Ramp Zone.
• Company is drilling 100,000m over 2026, to add to the 168,000m drilled across the Colombian assets to date.

Elevra (ELV AU) A$8.1, Mkt Cap A$1.4bn – Revenues climb as stronger lithium prices compensate for a drop in volumes

• The Company released 1H26 financial results for its operations in Quebec, Canada.
  • Sales 92kt (-20%yoy) reflecting lower production on the back of lower recoveries linked to higher iron and lower Li2O grades
  • Realised Price US$937/t FOB (+34%)
  • Cash Costs Sold $814/t FOB (-6%) reflecting positive inventory movements
  • Revenue $86m (+8%)
  • Underlying EBITDA $1m (1H25: -$25m)
  • PAT $74m (1H25: -$42m) including $74m in one off Piedmont merger costs as well as $156m NAL impairment reversal.
  • Cash balance $81m, up from $47m Jun25, following $45m in equity raise proceeds.
  • Debt $80m, up on $51m Jun25, reflecting the integration of Piedmont customer prepayments advanced against committed concentrate sales.
• FY26 guidance reiterated
  • Production 180-190kt SC5.0
  • Sales 170-190kt SC5.0
  • Cash Costs (ex royalty ad freight) US$860-880/SC5.0
  • Capex US$26m ($20m sustaining and the balance on growth projects)
• Updated Scoping Study for staged debottlenecking phases targeting 315kt SC5.4 at US$630/t Cash Costs expected 2QCY26

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) A$2.0, Mkt Cap A$6.3bn – LG is selling its stake

• LG Energy Solution is selling down its full 7.5% stake in the Company in a block trade, Reuters reports.
• ~240m shares are reported to be on slae at a price range of A$1.75-1.79/sh valuing the stake at ~A$420-430m.
• LG is the third largest shareholder in the Company following Hancock Prospecting and Tim Goyder (Liontown Chairman)

Ongwe Minerals* (OGW CN) C$1.3, Mkt Cap C$55m – Omatjete land package increased by 42%

• Namibian gold explorer Ongwe has expanded their licence package at the Omatjete Project.
• Ongwe reports they now control 50km of strike on the Okandeka Fault Zone, hosting the 2.9moz Kokoseb deposit and the Company’s Manga Gold Prospect.
• The Manga Prospect has shown gold in bedrock from soil sampling and scout drilling, with Management’s focus on better defining the strike extent of the Manga discovery.
• The exploration team has identified prospective transfer structures in the new licence area, which hold the potential to be conduits and trap sites for hydrothermal gold bearing fluids.
• The area hosts the Okahongo Fault System, with several granitic intrusions increasing the prospectivity and bearing distinct similarities to Kokoseb.
• Ongwe has three high-priority prospects in Namibia on the Northwest Damara Belt:
  • Khorixas: 154kha, hosting the Belmont Prospect with a surface footprint of 12km x 6km
  • Omatjete: 151.8kha, hosting the Manga Prospect 30km along strike from Wia’s Kokoseb, surface footprint of 4.5km x 1km
  • Outjo Project: 46kha, along strike from Osino’s Eureka Discovery

Conclusion: Ongwe has been looking to expand their Omatjete licence package following the initial discovery of the Manga Prospect. The Company has now secured the full extent of the Okondeka Fault Zone via acquiring and staking EPLs. A prospective relay system identified over the area has increased the team’s confidence in a potential economic gold discovery in the region, now hosting an additional 25km fault system warranting ground-based and bedrock exploration. Ongwe is one of our favourite junior gold explorers currently, in a tier one African jurisdiction and led by an experienced team responsible for the discovery and sale of several significant gold discoveries.

*SP Angel analyst(s) hold shares in Ongwe Minerals

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 3.4p, Mkt Cap £91m – Further drilling results highlight resource expansion potential at Redmoor

• Strategic Minerals has reported additional drilling results from the Redmoor Tungsten-Tin Project.
• Hole CRD041 was intended to test the presence and continuity of SVS mineralisation within the western portion of the deposit.
• Additionally, the hole was intended to identify and confirm presence of further non-SVS mineralised zones.
• The hole was drilled to a depth of 602m and returned highlights of:
  • 4m at 0.25% Sn and 0.01% Cu from 476m, intersecting a new zone of non-SVS mineralisation with visible cassiterite
  • 0.65m at 1.28% WO3.Eq and 75.8g/t Ag from 192m
  • 4m at 0.34% WO3.Eq from 197m
• The hole successfully intersected additional zones of mineralisation outside of the current resource model.
• Management notes the hole intersected an area of the deposit containing a higher proportion of tin-dominant grade.
• The Company believes that today’s assay results support the potential for further zones of mineralisation outside of the current MRE, which may support additional resource definition.
• Strategic reiterates it is on schedule to deliver a new MRE alongside an economics update.

Conclusion: Strategic continues to improve and expand the MRE potential at Redmoor via infill and step-out drilling of the high-grade tungsten-tin project. The 2025 drilling programme has boosted the Company’s understanding of the geology and zonation of Redmoor. As a result, whilst the Company remains on track to deliver the updated MRE in 1Q26, we see ample scope for resource expansion at Redmoor. We consider Redmoor a strategic asset with two key critical minerals, tin and tungsten. Both metals are currently testing record highs as the market looks to limited potential supply development opportunities, sustained demand and continued fractures on global supply chains. This is an exciting year for Strategic as they look to outline future development plans for Redmoor. We see the MRE release as the next major catalyst for Strategic, which is now well-funded following the £4m placement in January.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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