SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 24th December 2025

Gold, silver, platinum and copper break new high as US dollar weakens against Yuan

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Have a happy Christmas

European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) – Cinovec lithium project DFS

First Mining (FF CN) – Springpole PFS outlines 281kozpa LOM gold operation

First Quantum (FQM CN) – Sale of Cobre Las Cruces to RCF

Tungsten West (TUN LN) – Results as project financing due 1Q26

Copper ($12,200/t) breaches record highs as market looks to deficits in 2026

• Copper has rallied 36% though 2025 on the back of supply shocks and tariff disruption.
• Major mine disruptions at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente and QB have seen analysts shift forecasts from surplus to deficit in 2026.
• Smelters are struggling to source concentrate, pushing TCs further into negative territory as smelter overcapacity compounds shortages.
• Weak construction demand in China has been offset by increased energy infrastructure investment.
• A sustained move lower in the dollar is also lifting the wider metals complex, with base metals pushing to ytd highs.

Gold ($4,495/oz) breaks new high as US dollar weakens against Yuan

• Gold hit $4,528/oz in Asian trade at 1:25am GMT this morning
• Silver, platinum and copper have all made fresh highs
• Silver is up 43% over the past month to record highs of $72/oz, whilst PGMS are also rallying, with platinum up 49% past month to $2,307/oz and palladium up 37% to $1,955/oz.
• Chinese buying has lifted gold over the past two years as it moves to internationalise the Yuan and to protect against further weakness in the US dollar
• Gold has also been lifted by recent moves by BRICs countries to diversify their foreign reserves.
• Hong Kong is looking to establish a gold central clearing system and gold association in 2026, deepening cooperation with the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
• China is looking to boost influence over gold prices and is encouraging Beijing-friendly countries to increase bullion trade in China vs traditional hubs like the LBMA.
• Speculation on a 40% gold-backed ‘Unit’ currency from BRICs countries to reduce exposure to the dollar.
• The Unit currency will reportedly be backed by 60% sovereign fiat currencies and 40% fiat gold, using blockchain technology.
• Gold is likely also rallying on Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric towards the Federal Reserve.
• Trump stated yesterday that he wants the new Fed Chair to lower rates in the market is ‘doing well’ and ‘anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman.’
• Geopolitical tensions rise on fears of potential miscalculation and retaliation.
• Trump refused to rule out military conflict with Venezuela sparking concerns over the potential for escalation.
• More tankers have been boarded by US naval forces off the Venezuela coast in international waters.
• Ukraine looks less likely to see an end to the war with European funding coming through and more generals killed in Moscow.

Strong move in gold, silver, copper, tin and other metals heralds bumper year for many miners

• Markets are working towards a strong close to the year end with the MSCI All Country World Index gaining 21% this year
• The S&P also closed at another record high.
• The US dollar sold off as despite a stronger US GDP reading as China strengthened the Yuan further towards 7.0.
• A weaker US labour market is also seen as raising the prospects for further Fed rate cuts in the new year.
• We see the PBoC setting the Yuan at incrementally stronger levels following a new apparent policy to move towards a successively stronger Yuan.
• The move improves China’s purchasing power, lower input commodity feedstock prices and export a degree of inflation.
• We see the policy as being carefully and gradually implemented.
• The Japanese Yen also fell to 97.89, with implications for the massive Yen/USD carry trade.

Tin US$43,500/t & Nickel US$15,827/t prices both climbed on Indonesian issues

• The closure of >1,000 small-scale mines on or near the coast of the Bangka Belitung Islands continues to tighten the market
• Nickel prices jumped to hit $15970 in substantial LME activity on concerns the Indonesian government will restrict further Chinese nickel output.

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$83,944/t vs US$81,557/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$14,583/t vs US$14,280/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,240/t vs US$1,210/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$958/mtu vs US$938/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$99/lb vs US$98/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$260/t vs US$259/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,117/t vs US$1,115/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$360.0/t vs US$360.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

 IG TV  Commodity Corner        (17/12/25):  

(09/12/25):  

Economics

US – Consumer confidence fell to 89.1 in December from 92.9 to 89.1

• The figure is well below expectations for 91.7.
• The Present Situation Index fell -9.5pts to 116.8 as labour market conditions deteriorate
• The Expectations Index remained firm at 70.7 but still well below the 80 recession level.

Currencies

US$1.1797/eur vs 1.1781/eur previous. Yen 155.80/$ vs 156.01/$. SAr 16.672/$ vs 16.693/$. $1.352/gbp vs $1.351/gbp. 0.671/aud vs 0.669/aud. CNY 7.014/$ vs 7.029/$.

Dollar Index 97.88 vs 98.00 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,484/oz vs US$4,492/oz previous 

Gold ETFs 98.8moz vs 98.8moz previous 

Platinum US$2,279/oz vs US$2,188/oz previous 

Palladium US$1,949/oz vs US$1,817/oz previous 

Silver US$71.3/oz vs US$69.5/oz previous 

Rhodium US$8,125/oz vs US$8,125/oz previous 

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,195/t vs US$11,978/t previous 

Aluminium US$2,959/t vs US$2,957/t previous 

Nickel US$15,827/t vs US$15,475/t previous 

Zinc US$3,114/t vs US$3,108/t previous 

Lead US$1,996/t vs US$1,987/t previous 

Tin US$43,500/t vs US$43,500/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$62.6/bbl vs US$62.1/bbl previous 

• Crude oil prices were broadly flat in thin Christmas trading after falling ~17% in YTD25.
• BP has reached an agreement to sell a 65% stake in its wholly owned Castrol business to Stonepeak, at an enterprise value of $10.1bn that represents an implied EV/EBITDA of ~8.6x. The transaction is expected to result in total net proceeds to the Company at expected close next year of ~$6bn, which will be allocated to reducing its $26.1bn 3Q25 net debt towards a target of $14-18bn by end 2027.
• CB&I today announced that it has entered into a sale agreement to acquire Petrofac’s Asset Solutions business, which provides operations, maintenance and decommissioning services for onshore and offshore energy assets. Approximately 3,000 Petrofac employees are expected to join CB&I at the close of the transaction, which is anticipated to occur in the first quarter of 2026.
• In our view, 2025 should be remembered as the year in which the incoming Trump administration boosted sentiment towards the longevity and investability of the oil and gas sector, as greater scepticism emerged towards net zero ambitions and timelines. However, while mid-cap E&Ps have outperformed falling commodity prices, AIM market support for small cap E&Ps remains weak.
• This is the last Morning Energiser for 2025. Thanks for your support and interest this year. We’ll be back in your inbox in early January. As always, don’t hesitate to message me at david,mirzai@spangel.co.uk or via your regular contact at SP Angel with any questions. The SP Angel Energy Team (David, Richard & Stuart) wishes you and yours a safe and merry festive season.

Henry Hub Gas US$4.45/mmBtu (~$25.8/boe)

Natural Gas €27.7/MWh vs €27.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $81.0/lb vs $81.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.4/t vs US$104.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$460.8/t vs US$460.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$211.5/t vs US$212.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.5/t vs US$105.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$83,944/t vs US$81,557/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$14,583/t vs US$14,280/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,240/t vs US$1,210/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$958/mtu vs US$938/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$99/lb vs US$98/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$260/t vs US$259/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,117/t vs US$1,115/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$360.0/t vs US$360.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

EV & battery news

Europe new car sales up for fifth consecutive month, buoyed by strong EV sales

• Car sales in the EU, Britain and European Free Trade Association rose 2.4% yoy to 1.1m in November, the fifth consecutive month of growth (ACEA)
• Total sales were helped by strong EV sales in Europe’s bigger markets.
• EV sales (including hybrid and PHEVs) have accounted for 60% of total new sales in the EU from January to November 2025.
• The EU now has a monthly EV sales market share of 21%, below the 26% market share in the UK and 98% in Norway.
• The EU announced last week a plan to abandon the 2035 ban on combustion engine cards which could see EV sales drop in the short term.

Company news

European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) 16.35p, Mkt Cap £37m – Cinovec lithium project DFS

• EMH has updated its DFS announcement after the ASX refused to permit the final four years of production.
• Production schedule has been reduced from 27 years to 23 years.
• The pre-tax NPV8 has been reduced to $1.455bn and IRR of 14.8% at $26,000/t LCE price.
• Management states they are ‘highly confident that the inferred resources in year 24-27… will be converted to indicated resources upon additional infill drilling.’
• Company is working with consultants to revert to a 27 year LOM compliant with JORC>
• The Cinovec DFS envisages 37.5ktpa of battery-grade lithium carbonate.
• JORC reserve stands at 54.4mt at 0.58% Li2O for 145kt Li.
• Project envisages flotation as the primary method for concentrating zinnwaldite, with concentrate grades of 1.44% Li achieved with 89% recoveries.
• LOM AISC estimated at $13,879/t LCE.
• Initial CAPEX of $1.7bn and sustaining CAPEX of $0.5bn.
• EMH is focusing on FID, which will require further FEED work, contractor prequalification, financing and project execution modelling.

First Mining (FF CN) C$0.56, Mkt Cap C$723m – Springpole PFS outlines 281kozpa LOM gold operation

• First Mining, who are developing the Springpole project in Ontario, report PFS results.
• The study envisages a 30ktpd open pit operation with LOM of 9.4 years.
• Springpole holds an Indicated MRE of 191mt at 0.78g/t Au and 4.6g/t Ag for 4.8moz Au and 28moz Ag (0.8moz in inferred at 0.38g/t Au)
• The study envisages 330kozpa in the first five years and 281koz over LOM.
• AISC of $938/oz.
• Development CAPEX of $1.1bn and sustaining CAPEX of $323m.
• Post-tax NPV5 of $2.1bn and IRR of 41% at $3,100/oz Au.
• NPV5 increases to $3.8bn and IRR of 63% at $4,200/oz.

First Quantum (FQM CN) C$37, Mkt Cap C$31bn – Sale of Cobre Las Cruces to RCF

• First Quantum has agreed to sell the Cobre Las Cruces mine in Spain to Global Panduro, an Resource Capital Funds subsidiary.
• Global Panduro will pay:
  • $45m cash
  • $65m loan note to seller
  • Up to $80m in deferred payments on various project milestones.
• Las Cruces produced 700kt in copper cathodes from 2009-2021 and has finished tailings reprocessing from 2021-2023.
• FQM published a feasibility study in 2024 outlining a new underground polymetallic operation to produce Cu, Zn, Pb and Ag.
• The study envisaged:
  • Annual throughput of 2.2mtpa feeding 1.14% Cu, 2.15% Zn, 1.05% Pb and 26g/t Ag
  • LOM production of 403kt Cu, 790kt Zn, 342kt Pb and 18moz Ag.
  • CAPEX of $846m, total project CAPEX of $950m
  • LOM average unit cost of $90/t ore processed.
  • Post-tax NPV8 of $392m of $3.8/lb Cu, $1.2/lb Zn, $0.95/lb Pb and $22.8g/t Ag.
  • NPV8 increases to c.$800m with metal prices 20% higher.

Tungsten West (TUN LN) 11p, Mkt Cap £21m – Results as project financing due 1Q26

• Tungsten West, currently developing the Hemerdon tungsten project in Devon, reports half year results to 30^th September 2025.
• The Company is currently undertaking a project financing process for debt and equity funding to re-start operations.
• Company reports cash of £1m as of 30^th September, following an operating loss of £3.8m.
• Cash reported at £0.4m as of 30^th November 2025.
• Company agreed a £4m bridging loan facility post-period end with strategic investors for long-lead items and engineering work.
• Management expects to complete project financing in 1Q26.
• Company has entered a binding agreement for full conversion of outstanding convertible loan notes.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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