SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 21st January 2026

Gold soars higher as Japanese bond market sells-off and EU holds firm against Trump

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls: – SP Angel ranked No1 for Precious Metals in the 2025

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Tavşan drilling results

Artemis Resources (ARV LN) – Diamond drilling at the Titan project, WA

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Corporate update as long-term funding solutions underway

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Fleshing out the details on financing the Bilboes mine development

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – £2m conditional raise and fee conversions

Hochschild (HOC LN) – Higher metals prices support deleveraging as focus on brownfield exploration

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – BUY, Target  4.9p – Financial and operational update

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Focusing on value over volume as titanium feedstock market remains oversupplied

Oscillate PLC* (SRVL LN) – Third tranche of Pulsar shares received

Pensana (PRE LN) – Infill and resource expansion drilling at Longonjo

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 2025 production achieves or exceeds guidance ranges across all major commodity groups

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – £1m funding

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, Target  18.5p – Official grant signing ceremony

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Monazite containing DyTb and Yttrium discovered in tailings stream from Kasiya project in Malawi

Gold ($4,863/oz) soars higher as Japanese bond market sells-off and EU holds firm against Trump

• Gold has rallied 2% overnight, touching record highs of $4,888/oz despite some profit taking in Gold ETFs.
• A safe-haven bid continues, with gold favoured over US Treasuries and Bitcoin which both sold off yesterday.
• The 10-year climbed to 4.3%, as funds shunned US government debt on continued erraticism from Trump.
• Danish pension fund Akademiker is selling $100m of US Treasuries in response to Trump’s move for Greenland.
• The dollar is ticking higher this morning, having been weak vs the Euro.
• The Japanese Yen has weakened to June 2024 levels amid a sustained sell-off in Japanese government debt.
• 10-year Japanese bond yields saw their sharpest jump since 2022, whilst 30-year yields climbed the most since 2003.
• PM Takaichi called a snap election on Monday and is calling for increased stimulus, raising fiscal concerns.
• Global bond markets have been selling-off through the post-Covid era, as traders price in higher deficits amid increased monetary stimulus
• Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports China is accelerating plans to boost bullion trading, with MoU between Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Exchange planned to establish a central clearing system to boost liquidity.
• China seems to be looking to remove the LBMA’s authority in bullion trading, enticing ‘friendly’ countries to store and trade their gold via Shanghai.
• Hong Kong Gold Exchange daily gold turnover has climbed 22x to $2.9bn in 2025, vs $100m in 2010.
• Major themes to watch for gold:
  • Escalating tensions between China-US and EU-US
  • Continued erosion of Fed independence by the White House
  • Further broadening of participation from Asian investors in gold markets, spearheaded by China

Greenland – A done deal for Greenlanders

• We believe an agreement has been reached between Greenland and the US
• Just nobody cc’d Kier Starmer or the EU
• As Trump says, why would you defend it if you didn’t own it!
• In this case the US would defend Greenland due to the UK-Iceland-Greenland maritime gap
• Given Russia’s persistent submarine mapping of undersea cables, the closure of this gap to Russian submarines appears ever more important
• As for Greenland, it is an amazingly beautiful place, but the weather is tough and it offers little current economic value.
• Greenland remains highly prospective for metals with ongoing melting of the ice sheet with much to be discovered in future years.
• There are suggestions Danish foreign policy may have restricted the pace of development in Greenland.
• A closer and greater cooperation with the US is likely to turbocharge the economy and ramp up future mineral discovery and development.

China EV charging plugs total 20m by end 2025

• By the end of 2025, China’s total EV charging plugs exceeded 20.09m, up 49.7% from 2024.
• Public charging connectors reached 4.72m, growing 31.9% yoy, with combined rated power of 220GW (around 46.5kW per plug on average).
• Private charging plugs rose to 15.38m, up 56.2% yoy
• The rapid rollout tracks EV adoption, with China selling 16.49m NEVs in 2025, a 47.9% share of total vehicle sales, and exporting 2.62m units.
• If we assume that the average home charger uses 1.5kg of copper in its cable and a DC fast-charging cable uses on average 20kg of copper, then China has 108,500t of copper in its EV charging cables.

China Lunar New Year – Tue, 17 Feb 2026 – The year of the Fire Horse.

• The holiday period officially lasts for 15 days but few Chinese workers are able to take the full 15-days off
• The official public holiday in China lasts seven days but this appears to include two weekends.
• We expect an influx of Chinese tourists into London as China promotes travel and vacations for its people.

IG TV – Copper, Silver and the New Commodities Cycle | Commodity Markets Weekly:  https://youtu.be/mdU5EEjc3Z8?si=BjTihCKKoeKlYHYn

 Currencies

US$1.1709/eur vs 1.1697/eur previous. Yen 157.89/$ vs 158.15/$. SAr 16.363/$ vs 16.408/$. $1.344/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.675/aud vs         0.674/aud. CNY 6.966/$ vs 6.961/$.

Dollar Index 98.59 vs 98.66 previous.

Economics

US – Selling pressure in US equities eased as President Trump heads to Davos.

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed more than 2% down on Tuesday on a restart in trade conflict between the EU and US in light of a Greenland dispute.
• When asked how far he was willing to go to secure Greenland, President Trump said “you’ll find out”.
• President Trump is expected to deliver a speech at Davos late today.

UK – Headline inflation picked up for the first time in five months in December.

• The increase is reported to be driven by temporary factors like higher tobacco duty and air fares.
• Although, core measure was flat while services CPI also climbed with both remaining at elevated levels in absolute terms.
• The pound pulled back slightly on the news and is down ~0.2% int eh morning.
• CPI (%yoy, Dec / Nov / Est): 3.4 / 3.2 / 3.3
• Core CPI (%yoy, Dec / Nov / Est): 3. / 3.2 / 3.3
• Services CPI (%yoy, Dec / Nov / Est): 4.5 / 4.4 / 4.6

EU-Mercosur agreement

• The EU-Mercosur agreement creates one of the largest free trade areas in the world, spanning 31 countries with 700m people
• The agreement supports the EC’s strategy of diversification enabling the EU to its economic reach.
• Given the EU’s ‘Fortress Europe’ approach to the world the US is never going to like the expansion of a rival bloc.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,866/oz vs US$4,720/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.8moz vs 99.9moz previous

Platinum US$2,464/oz vs US$2,392/oz previous

Palladium US$1,865/oz vs US$1,847/oz previous

Silver US$95.1/oz vs US$94.6/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 844.0moz vs 846.8moz previous

Rhodium US$10,100/oz vs US$10,050/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,861/t vs US$12,937/t previous

Aluminium US$3,136/t vs US$3,149/t previous

Nickel US$17,985/t vs US$18,090/t previous

Zinc US$3,187/t vs US$3,221/t previous

Lead US$2,037/t vs US$2,048/t previous

Tin US$51,800/t vs US$50,300/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$64.1/bbl vs US$63.6/bbl previous

• US Henry Hub natural gas prices soared 20% overnight, building on gains of over 25% earlier the week, as weather forecasts deteriorated, with gas flows reportedly being diverted from LNG export facilities to meet domestic demand.
• European energy prices maintained their highest levels in over 6M on forecasts for colder temperatures in late January, with France’s nuclear generation also falling 2% w/w to 82% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €35.4/MWh vs €36.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.0/lb vs $85.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.2/t vs US$104.1/t –  – Chinese crude steel output falls to 7-year low at 960.8mt

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.8/t vs US$466.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$230.0/t vs US$234.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$111.7/t vs US$111.4/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$95,831/t vs US$96,256/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,750/t vs US$21,406/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,110/t vs US$2,050/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,188/mtu vs US$1,188/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$109/lb vs US$109/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,127/t vs US$1,128/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Company News:

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 1. 5p, Mkt Cap £38m – Tavşan drilling results

• Following the first gold pour at its 23.5% owned Tavsan heap-leach project in western Turkiye in December, Ariana Resources reports the results of recent drilling “from the 85-hole programme at Tavşan Main Zone and South Zone”.
• The programme includes both infill and expansion drilling and includes:
  • A 15.7m wide intersection averaging 1.51g/t gold and 7.82g/t silver from surface in TAV-D014-25; and
  • A 7.4m wide intersection averaging 2.76g/t gold and 3.10g/t silver from 16.9m depth in hole TAV-D030A-25; and
  • A 9.7m wide intersection averaging 1.91g/t gold and 3.27g/t silver from 0.8m depth in TAV-D079-25.
• Ariana Resources confirms that drilling “is continuing in other areas across the West and East Zones of the Tavşan Mine”.
• The company confirms that “A JORC Resource update will be completed at the end of the 15,000m programme at Tavşan, expected in Q2 2026”.
• Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, said that the results from the campaign show “the Main Zone at Tavşan extending into the South Zone … [and that as the drilling continues]… we are looking forward to further opportunities being identified in the periphery of the currently planned pits”.

Conclusion: Drilling at Tavşan shows possibility of linking two mineralised zones as Ariana works towards a revised MRE for the project later this year.

Artemis Resources (ARV LN) 0.33p, Mkt Cap £11m – Diamond drilling at the Titan project, WA

• Artemis Resources reports the resumption of drilling at its Titan gold prospect near Karratha, WA where recent drilling work has “has confirmed a new gold-bearing structure beneath shallow cover”.
• The new phase of drilling comprises two diamond drill holes totalling ~450m aimed to help understand the geological structure, controls and continuity of the mineralisation
• Recent results from reverse-circulation drilling include:
  • An intersection of 19m at an average grade of 1.6g/t gold from 127m depth in hole 25ARRC-025; and
  • An intersection of 5m at an average grade of 13.1g/t gold from 132m depth in hole 25ARRC-006
• Further assay results from the reverse-circulation drilling are expected during the current quarter.
• The company describes the Titan East prospect as “the first new structurally controlled gold zone identified outside the Carlow Resource corridor and … [and says that it] … highlights the broader mineralised footprint within the Carlow-Titan trend”.
• Director, Jozsef Patarica, said that “diamond drilling is the next step in tightening our geological understanding of the shear zone and positioning Artemis to execute a larger, targeted follow-up program”.

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 9p, Mkt Cap £5.4m – Corporate update as long-term funding solutions underway

• Beowulf provides a corporate update for 2026 as it advances the Kallak and Grafintec projects.
• The Company has also issued an updated corporate presentation: CLICK LINK
• Beowulf secured £500k in December via convertible loan notes from Alumni Capital as it seeks longer-term financing solutions.
• These solutions include a potential sale of Vardar Minerals for €4m, a Business Finland Loan of €7m for Grafintec and a €5m equity raise at Grafintec level.
• Jokkmokk high-grade iron ore:
  • Focus on delivering the PFS and Environmental Permit application for Kallak
  • Work currently on optimising mining operations with autonomous vehicles, from two market-leading Nordic truck manufacturers
  • Management expects the conclusion of PFS and Environmental Permit application will take six months following funding agreement
• Grafintec GAMP Project:
  • Submitted EU Strategic Project application for Graphite Anode to support faster permitting and financing
  • Submission of rectification request following Business Finland Tax Credit assessment
  • Kotka site EIA work has been initiated

Conclusion: Beowulf is currently advancing several funding options, including an outright sale of Vardar Minerals, and Grafintec-level debt and equity financing. Whilst they remain at non-binding stages, the completion of funding agreements will enable Beowulf to significantly derisk the high-grade Kallak Iron Ore project via a PFS and environmental permitting, offering a clear pathway to a rerating.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining, An SP Angel analyst recently visited Kallak

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 2,100p, Mkt Cap £413m – Fleshing out the details on financing the Bilboes mine development

• Caledonia Mining has described its funding plans for the Bilboes project in Zimbabwe following the closing of its US$100m Convertible 5.875% Senior Note offer which realised “US$150 million following the exercise by the initial purchasers of their option to buy a further US$25 million of notes”.
• Summarising the Note offer, the company notes that “Investor demand exceeded US$600 million”.
• In November 2025, the company described its plans to develop the 1.75moz gold project, located in southern Zimbabwe around 80km north of Bulawayo, where it aims to produce 1.55moz of gold at an all-in-sustaining cost of US$1.061/oz over ~11 years.
• Peak funding for the project of US$484m was expected to deliver an after-tax NPV_8%(Real) of US$582m and an IRR of 32.5% with a payback of 1.7years based on a consensus gold price of US$2,548/oz.
• Alongside the proceeds of the Notes, today’s announcement outlines a gold hedging plan over 3,000oz per month of gold production from Caledonia Mining’s Blanket gold mine at a minimum price of US$3,500/month to underpin the Bilboes development.
• Caledonia Mining also confirms that it is arranging “an interim funding facility of up to US$150 million with a consortium of Zimbabwean and South African commercial banks … [and also confirms that it] … has had ongoing preliminary discussions with regional and global financial institutions to explore the scope and structure of project finance to support the construction of the Bilboes gold project”.
• Chief Executive, Mark Learmonth, said that “The combination of our hedging programme, the proceeds from the Convertible Notes Offering and our expectation with respect to putting in place the Interim Funding Facility by mid-year will ensure we have the financial strength to begin ordering long lead equipment for Bilboes in the third quarter of this year”.
• He also said that “In parallel, we will begin a formal project finance process to support full development. This structured approach allows us to manage risk, minimise dilution and position Bilboes as the next large scale, long life, gold production hub in Zimbabwe”.

Conclusion: Caledonia Mining has described how it aims to finance the Bilboes mine development following its successful US$125m Convertible Senior Note issue.

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 0.8p, Mkt Cap £6m – £2m conditional raise and fee conversions

• The Company conditionally raised £2.0m.
• £1.4m of net proceeds to be directed towards exploration programme at the Homase Gold Mine, Ghana.
• The programme to focus on expanding and infill drilling the current JORC MRE.
• It also includes working capital requirements at existing operations.
• The balance to be used to evaluate and invest in gold projects outside Ghana.
• The team is in advanced discussions with a party with gold assets in Sierra Leone.
• The raise is being done at 1p (200m shares) with one for one warrant attached (1p exercise price, 24m maturity).
• Issue price compares to 0.5p closing price on Tuesday.
• Separately, Asian Investment Management agreed to settle accrued interest payment in shares.
• £1.45m worth of interest (~450oz) accrued on the Gold Loan to be covered with ~145m shares (1p issue price)
• Following the payment, the accrued interest remaining on the Gold Loan stands at ~250oz in addition to the principal amount of 1,871oz.
• AIMS will hold ~29.9% in the Company now.
• ~22m shares to be issued covering 50% of outstanding directors fees accrued but unpaid from January 2024 to December 2025.

Conclusion: The equity raise, completed at nearly double last closing price, to support the Company with working capital needs and exploration costs at Homase while the team is looking to add another asset to diversify its portfolio outside Ghana. AIMS has been supportive converting outstanding interest into new shares holding 29.9% in the Company.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Goldstone Resources

Hochschild (HOC LN) 619, Mkt Cap £3.2bn – Higher metals prices support deleveraging as focus on brownfield exploration

• Hochschild produced 370koz AuEq in 2025, down from 408koz AuEq in 2024.
• Attributable production reported at 311.5koz AuEq, down from 347koz in 2024.
• 2025 consolidated AISC expected at $1,980-2,080/oz AuEq.
•  Focus on brownfield drilling programme, expected to add substantial resources across operating units.’
• Monte do Carmo project due for FID in 2026.
• Royropata silver project permitting on track, with resource additions due soon.
• Monetising non-core assets with spin-out of Tiernan Gold for $12m in proceeds, and Aclara Resources stake valued at $110m.
• Company reports $317m in cash as of 31 December, for net debt of $23m, reduced by $200m yoy.
• Hochschild guides for 300-328koz AuEq in 2026 on an attributable basis.
• Production Guidance split between:
  • Immaculada: 174-185koz AuEq (210koz 2025)
  • Mara Rosa: 67-80koz AuEq (40koz 2025)
  • San Jose (51%) 59-64koz AuEq (121koz AuEq for 100%)
• AISC guided at $2,157-2,320/oz.
• CAPEX guided for $210-225m over the year and brownfield exploration budget of $45m.

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 1.4p, Mkt Cap £135m – Financial and operational update

BUY – 4.9p

• The Company updates on funding and development of the Tulu Kapi Gold Project, Ethiopia.
• Final documentation for the US$240m Loan Facility is now fully signed.
• The balance of the $340m project funding being $100m in equity risk capital including $30m in subordinated streams and $20m in Ethiopian Preference Shares is undergoing final documentation.
• Final funding package remains on track for February 2026.
• Further $36m in the form of a stream/preference equity is being considered to boost cash reserves funding exploration and social programmes.
• $20m raise in December allowed to launch a series of workstreams ahead of major development works including:
  • First phase of community resettlement compensation payments
  • Land clearing commenced for construction of new units for affected communities
  • Plant construction team mobilised to the site
  • Electricity transmission works

Conclusion: Tulu Kapi draws closer to closing final $340m project funding package with the target to close in February.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 260p, Mkt Cap £231m – Focusing on value over volume as titanium feedstock market remains oversupplied

• Kenmare reports 4Q25 production results.
• Company excavated 9.2mt of ore over the quarter, at 3.36% grade, down 11% and 32%yoy respectively.
• Ilmenite production of 183kt down 40%yoy, whilst zircon and rutile production fell 28% and 34% resprctively.
• Production fell as a result of lower ore excavation on upgrade work at WCP A.
• Net debt reported at $159m ($49m in cash), up from $25m same period 2024. Net debt expected to remain elevated through 2026.
• Increased net debt a result of peak WCP A CAPEX.
• Company expects a significant reduction in CAPEX in 2026, with $30m to be incurred on WCP A.
• Ilmenite production guided at 800kt for 2026, vs 842kt in 2025, amid a focus on value over volume.
• Cash costs guided at $215-225m in 2026 (vs $228-252m in 2025), or $240-250/t.
• Focus on further optimising cost structure, with opportunities identified to reduce costs further.
• Kenmare is pursuing $9.3m of invoices for a shipment in Q3 which remain unpaid.
• Kenmare will recognise a <$300m impairment charge on uncertain pricing outlook in their 2025 results.
• Focus on delivering the Implementation Agreement with the Mozambique government, noting the ‘ongoing delay and uncertainty remains a significant concern.’
• Titanium feedstock market update:
  • Kenmare notes pricing continued to decline in 4Q25, as ilmenite and zircon markets remain over-supplied.
  • Demand decline a result of lower consumer confidence reducing pigment production alongside weak housing markets.
  • China chloride pigment production reached record levels in Q4, amid higher sulphuric acid prices.
  • Western pigment producers idling pigment plants during 2025 and reducing production capacity.
  • Domestically-mined Chinese ilmenite increased in 2025, impacting feedstock prices.
  • Zircon market weak on increased supply and influx of lower-quality zircon in concentrates.
  • Kenmare highlights elevated feedstock inventories in both western and Chinese pigment producer facilities.

Oscillate PLC* (SRVL LN) 0.35p, Mkt Cap £1.5m – Third tranche of Pulsar shares received

• Oscillate, soon to be Serval, reports the receipt of further Pulsar Helium shares.
• Oscillate is divesting 80% of its hydrogen assets to Pulsar Helium for $400k in Pulsar shares.
• Pulsar shares are being received in $80k tranches over a five-month period.
• Oscillate has now received the third tranche of Pulsar shares

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oscillate Plc, An SP Angel analyst recently visited the Company’s Namibia and Botswana projects

Pensana (PRE LN) 97p, Mkt Cap £306 – Infill and resource expansion drilling at Longonjo

• The Company started preparation for a 7,000m infill drilling at the Longonjo REE Project, Angola.
• Infill drilling (10×10) is carried ahead of the start of mining and stockpiling/belinding operation in early 2027.
• Two RC drill rigs to get mobilised to the site ahead of the dry season from May to October.
• The programme to complement the resource expansion drilling that was announced late last year.
• MRE expansion programme to test depth extension of the mineralisation to >100m depths versus average depth of the Longonjo Project of ~30m.
• The team to study the potential for an increase in the MRE from current ~313mt at 1.43% TREO towards a billion tonnes at a similar grade.

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 6,583p, Mkt cap £79bn – 2025 production achieves or exceeds guidance ranges across all major commodity groups

1. Final quarter and 2025 production reports from Rio Tinto show that it achieved its guidance across all commodity groups with record final quarter output from both the WA iron ore operations and the Argentinian lithium business with the Group’s annual production, on a ‘copper equivalent’ basis increasing 8% Y-o-Y.
2. CEO, Simon Trott, described “exceptional production performance, both on a quarter-on-quarter and full year basis” and said that the record quarterly output from the WA iron-ore business represented “a strong recovery from the extreme weather interruptions earlier in the year … [while the new iron ore mine at Simandou in Guinea delivered its] … first shipment from the port” in December.
3. Mr. Trott also highlighted “Record copper production …following delivery of our Oyu Tolgoi underground project”.
4. Commenting on the global economy, Rio Tinto says that it “remains resilient despite persistent shocks” with the US economy resilient “despite Q4 government shutdown … [and China continuing] … to be driven by production and exports, while investment and consumption moderated in Q4 and the property market remains weak”.
5. Rio Tinto comments on the high copper prices in a copper concentrate market which “remained extremely tight in Q4, with spot treatment and refining charges plunging to -$68/t and the 2026 annual benchmark settling at $0/t, both all-time lows”.
6. The company also notes a build-up of iron-ore inventories in Chinese ports which it says rose “by 21Mt during Q4 to 166Mt”.
7. Commenting on annual iron ore production from the Pilbara of 327mt, the company says that “operations bounced back from the cyclone impacts in Q1, achieving record rates since April”.
8. Rio Tinto expects 2026 iron ore production of 343-366mt including 323-338mt from the Pilbara and 5-10mt from Simandou supplemented by 15-18mt from its Iron Ore Company of Canada.
9. Rio Tinto produced 883kt of copper in 2025 exceeding the 860-875kt guidance range.  Production included 348kt of copper in concentrates and an additional 56kt of refined copper from Escondida with a further 345kt of copper in concentrate from Oyu Tolgoi and 134kt from Kennecott.
10. Production at Escondida reflected “a reduction in head grades from mine sequencing, partially offset by higher throughput and recovery rates” while annual copper output from Oyu Tolgoi grew by >60% as higher grades in both the surface and underground operations kept it “on track to reach an average of around 500 thousand tonnes of copper per year … from 2028 to 2036”.
11. Copper output from Kennecott “continues to improve as we successfully navigate geotechnical conditions”.
12. Copper production in 2026 is expected in the range 800-870kt.
13. Lithium carbonate production from Argentina totalled 57kt, with 2026 guidance in the range 61-64kt.
14. The company comments that during Q4, “lithium carbonate price increased 55% in Q4 fuelled by growing optimism for battery energy storage systems demand and strong shipment activity out of China … [and that this has improved confidence and] … prompted broad upgrades to lithium demand expectations”.
15. Rio Tinto’s aluminium operations delivered a new annual record bauxite production of 62.4mt with 2026 bauxite output expected between 58-61mt.
16. The company produced ~7.6mt of alumina in 2025 2026 alumina production expected in range 7.6-8.0mt despite the company’s previously announced decision to reduce production at Yarwum from October 2026.
17. Aluminium output in 2025 remained relatively stable at 3.38mt Rio Tinto expects 2026 ontput of aluminium metal in the range 3.25-3.45mt.
18. Rio Tinto reports exploration “in 15 countries across six commodities” with the decision to simplify activities and to “cease exploration activity in Brazil and Finland, and any lithium exploration projects without remaining commitments”.

Conclusion: Rio Tinto met or exceeded its 2025 production guidance across its commodity groups with the company emphasising the stability of its operations. 2026 production guidance suggests similar overall output levels across most commodities with Oyu Tolgoi remaining on track to deliver 500ktpa of copper production by 2028.The company notes the resilience of the global economy and comments on the current strong commodity prices.

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.03p, Mkt Cap £3.5m – £1m funding

• Premier African Minerals has announced a subscription to raise £1m via the issue of 3,333m shares at a price of 0.03p/share.
• We estimate that the subscription shares represent around 19% of the enlarged company.
• The additional funds will be used to install a new flotation plant at the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe.
• The new 15-20tph plant is expected to allow Zulu to “produce product at commercially acceptable levels of grade and recovery … [as well as to] … part fund certain operating expenses at Zulu as part of the installation of the Xinhai Flotation Plant and ongoing creditor management”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that “the Company has settled £0.140 million of supplier’s invoices and certain accrued but unpaid salaries of former directors through the issue of new ordinary shares in the Company, also at the Issue Price”.
• Earlier this month, Premier African Minerals announced that it had agreed a settlement plan and timetable to settle outstanding amounts due to a contractor at Zulu.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 5.2p, Mkt Cap £134m – Official grant signing ceremony

BUY – 18.5p

• The Company attended the official signing ceremony following the award of up to ~€110m Portuguese State grant.
• The ceremony was also attended by PM Luis Montenegro, Minister of Economy Castro Almeida and Secretary of State for the Economy Joao Rui Ferreira among others.
• Of six companies participating in the ceremony four were involved within the lithium battery value chain (Savannah Resources; Lifthium; Topsoe Battery, and CALB).

Conclusion: The grant and highly ranking officials attending the ceremony demonstrates strong political backing for Savannah with the Barroso Lithium Project seen as a strategic cornerstone of the country’s critical minerals and battery value chain ambitions.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 40p, Mkt Cap £266m – Monazite containing DyTb and Yttrium discovered in tailings stream from Kasiya project in Malawi

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)

• Sovereign Metals reports the recovery of heavy Rare Earths in Monazite concentrate from tailings at the Kasiya rutile and graphite project in Malawi.
• The Monazite has been recovered in the tailings stream during processing of ore at Sovereign’s Lilongwe pilot processing plant.
• Early results show high levels of Dysprosium, Terbium (DyTb) and Yttrium with grades ahead of the world’s five largest producers which account for 70% of the world’s rare earth production.
• Preliminary analysis has confirmed monazite concentrate with heavy REEs grading:
  • DyTb combined: 2.9% (and up to 3.9%) and averaging 11.9%
  • Y (yttrium): up to 17.3%
  • NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) 21.8%.
• DyTb: are used in high-temperature permanent magnets in advanced technology and defence.
  • DyO in China sells for $1,090-1,120/kg for 99.5% in Rotterdam
  • TbO $4750-4,850/kg for 99.99% in Rotterdam.
• Yttrium: is used in aerospace, thermal coatings, radar and lasers, strengthening of alloys and semiconductor manufacturing.
  • Yttrium Oxide costs $355-360/kg for 99.999% in Rotterdam.
• Kasiya’s monazite concentrate could sell for >US$8,500/t delivered to China depending on market conditions or maybe processed outside China by Energy Fuels, Lynas or in the future by Iluka.
• Sovereign is now running:
  • Detailed mineralogical characterisation of monazite occurrence and distribution within the Kasiya orebody;
  • Assessment of heavy rare earth concentrate recovery rates through the proposed Kasiya processing flowsheet; and
  • Evaluation of potential scale of rare earth production as a by-product and associated economics.
• The high level of Thorium (ThO2) at 21,588 will be an issue and make transport more expensive.

Conclusion: Monazite is often found in titanium mineral deposits and is a valuable by-product for Kenmare, Illuka, Energy Fuels and other mineral sands producers.

The addition of monazite raises the strategic importance of the project which already is already seen as an important critical mineral deposit due to its rutile and graphite.

Experts expect Kasiya’s rutile to be used as feedstock for titanium sponge and conversion into titanium metal for aerospace and other high-tech applications.

Much work still needs to be done to confirm the consistency and distribution of the monazite mineralisation for inclusion into the JORC resource.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. The analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site and highly recommends the Malawi coffee.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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