SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Wednesday 14th October 2026

Rio Tinto cuts full-year lithium guidance to the lower end after heavy rain in Argentina

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Aterian* (ATN LN) – JV-funded mapping extends Amane to 2.50km ahead of Q4 scout drilling

CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) – Environmental consultant appointed for Laguna Verde as CFO term extended

Cornish Metals* (TIN LN) SUSPENDED – Shares suspended for Capital Access Window

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – Emphasis switches to exploration at Indiana project, Chile

Metals One plc (MET1 LN) – Black Schist project in Finland under review

Mkango Magnetic Materials* (MKA LN) – BUY  – Texas Hub power supply secured with cutting/finishing commissioning 1H27 and Phase 1 mid-2028

NEU Battery Materials (NBM CN) – Raising of S$9.7m for lithium recycling in Singapore

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Initial hole at El Cedro, Colombia mineralised over more than 250m from surface

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 2026 production guidance intact after robust quarter from copper, iron ore and aluminium

Thor Explorations (THR LN) – 3Q26 production update with FY26 guidance cut

Lithium – Rio Tinto cuts full-year lithium guidance to the lower end after heavy rain in Argentina

• Rainfall cut output from the brine ponds at Olaroz in Argentina, with Fenix also affected.
• Progress at the Sal de Vida brine project under construction has been slower than expected.
• Prices have pulled back in recent weeks on concerns over demand.

China – Power grid upgrade to 900mkW of distributed new energy to use ~616,000t of Lithium Carbonate Eq. by 2030

• China is working its way to an extraordinary upgrade in its power grid to create a resilient and intelligent network that will accommodate more solar and wind power  (SCMP).
• The upgrade is part of China 15th Five-Year Plan running to 2030 to support ongoing high-tech industrialisation.
• State Grid Corporation of China and China Southern Power Grid capex is forecast at CNY5 tn ($747bn) over the term..
• The investment is expected to have a multiplier effect across the industrial chain supporting expansion across a range of sectors.
• Solar and wind power are expected to make up 30% by 2030.
• Nuclear power is targeted to reach 110GW from around 60GW to bring the total non-fossil share to 50% by 2030.
• The non-fossil share is expected to reach 64% in the southern power grid with new energy capacity making up 50%.
• In an attempt to beat national targets, the CSG ‘State Grid’ is targeting 35% of non-fossil energy in total end-user consumption by 2030 while pushing terminal energy consumption to 38%.
• The CSG plans to add 230m kW of capacity to reach 500m kW by 2030.
• 88m kW of supporting power and >6m kW of grid-forming equipment will be added to support renewables, eg wind, solar and hydropower.
• State Grid Corporation of China plans to add 140m kW of energy storage systems including an extra 29.43m kW of pumped hydro storage to total 300-370m kW of new-type energy storage by 2030.
• Silicone battery chemistry is likely to become dominant in BESS ‘Battery Energy Storage Systems’ as new solid-state cells are rolled out.
• Li2Si batteries have higher theoretical power densities than conventional Li-carbon batteries but have suffered from expansion and cracking during lithiation.
• 1kW of Li-ion battery capacity for one hour of discharge requires ~120g of pure lithium or ~2.5kg of Lithium carbonate.
• Real-world estimates average ~1.4kg of LCE ‘lithium carbonate’ are required per kWh of BESS implying demand for ~154,000t of material for a 1 hour power system.
• Given, BESS systems are increasingly moving towards 4-hour systems it might be reasonable to assume CSG BESS demand could rise towards ~616,000t of LCE material by 2030.
• Global supply of LCE is estimated at 1.6mt this year with current demand estimated to be ~1.5mt in 2026.

Conclusion: Considering the relatively close supply / demand balance we see the market tightening for LCE this year as China moves to expand its power network and stabilise the new grid.

Iron ore ($90.7/t) – BHP cuts 300 Pilbara jobs on lower prices and higher costs

• BHP will cut 300 jobs across its Western Australian iron ore operations.
• The cuts affect the South Flank, Mining Area C, Newman and Jimblebar mines in the Pilbara.
• The four mines employ around 16,000 people.
• Iron ore prices have fallen around 14% this year while fuel and shipping costs rose.
• BHP said in August that the Middle East conflict had materially shifted its cost environment.
• Rio Tinto reported Wednesday that higher diesel prices lifted Pilbara operating costs by $1/t.
• BHP expects up to 298mt of iron ore this financial year against ~366mt at Rio.

Copper ($14,574/t) steadies as Escondida wage talks run past the deadline

• Copper prices held ~$14,600/t, with wage talks at Escondida (Chile) unresolved past the deadline.
• Unions for about a quarter of Escondida’s direct employees set a strike for 8am local time Wednesday.
• However, the supervisors and staff union said early Wednesday that talks had resumed and agreement ‘is possible’.
• Workers are asking for higher pay and a monthly production bonus.
• The union sees BHP’s proposed ~$25,500 signing bonus as below market.
• Additionally, two unions at an Antofagasta mine have been on strike for around a week.

Currencies

US$1.1194/eur vs 1.1190/eur previous. Yen 158.38/$ vs 158.17/$. SAr 16.490/$ vs 16.477/$. $1.325/gbp vs $1.323/gbp. 0.698/aud vs 0.697/aud. CNY 6.693/$ vs 6.695/$.

Dollar Index 102.25 vs 102.35 previous.

Economics

US – NY Fed President John Williams says one more hike may be appropriate this year, but he currently sees no need for further tightening in 2027

• He expects inflation to slow towards the 2% target next year as tariff and energy effects fade.
• Markets are pricing in a December hike and two further hikes in 2027.
• September CPI is due later today (exp 3.6%yoy CPI and 2.5% Core CPI), ahead of the 27–28 October FOMC meeting.

China – Strong September trade data released this morning with trade surplus on course to beat last year’s record.

• Trade surplus widened to $134bn, outperforming all forecasts, taking YTD balance to $938bn (+8%yoy).
• Surpluses with the US (US$34bn) and the EU (US$34.8bn) were the widest since January 2025.
• Exports rose 36%yoy, the strongest growth since February, and imports rose 31%yoy.
• High-tech exports rose c.64% and accounted for around half of total export growth.
• Separately, September inflation numbers were out with producer prices climbing at the fastest pace since 2022 on higher energy while consumer prices growth remained subdued.
• Exports (US$, %yoy, Sep / Aug / Est): 36.3% / 25.0% / 25.7%
• Imports (US$, %yoy, Sep / Aug / Est): 31.0% / 28.2% / 25.0%
• PPI (%yoy, Sep / Aug / Est): 5.0% / 3.8% / 4.4%
• CPI (%yoy, Sep / Aug / Est): 0.9% / 0.8% / 1.0%
• Core CPI (%yoy, Sep / Aug / Est): 1.0% / 1.0% / NA

Japan – 5y bond auction drew firm demand with investors attracted by higher yields.

• Bid to cover ratio came in at 3.56 vs a 12-month average of 3.41.
• BoJ officials are reported to be leaning against a back-to-back hike this month, following the September increase to 1.25%.
• Markets are assigning only <5% chance of a hike in October but nearly 90% for another one before year end.

Germany – The government will press the EU o extend import quotas on Chinese goods to further sectors (Bloomberg)

• Target sectors include chemicals, mechanical engineering and possibly pharmaceuticals, using safeguard measures.
• This follows last week’s 16-point EU–China agreement, which caps Chinese hybrid vehicle imports at 350,000 units a year.
• EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the trade deficit with China.

Russia/Ukraine – Russia struck six thermal power plants and a substation around Kyiv and in the Kharkiv region overnight.

• Ukraine reports 39 ballistic missiles and over 120 drones were launched. Three people were killed and 25 injured, and there are power and water outages in Kyiv.
• The strikes follow US claims of an energy truce, which President Trump acknowledged on Monday had not been agreed by either side.

Saudi Arabia -Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran was hit in a Houthi missile attack on Tuesday, causing a limited fire and no injuries

• The attack is part of a wider wave of strikes on Saudi cities and airports in recent days, which have left at least 18 people dead.
• The Jazan refinery remains shut after an earlier attack, and a Red Sea export port has also been targeted.

Houthis used coordinated, multiple drones, cruise and ballistic missiles to confuse and evade air defences in a sophisticated and well planned attack against Riyadh airport

• Turkey has already ruled out potential involvement in the Yemen despite Trump.
• Israel may join in strikes against Houthi forces.
• The Egyptian intelligence minister visited Israel but did not meet with Netanyahu. Netanyahu demands to know who he did meet?

UK – Counties bracing for Super El Niño as weathermen predict fierce autumn and winter storms

• ‘Flood Mary’, a property flood resilience champion, is urging people to prepare for stronger than average storms.
• The Met Office sys the seasonal outlook suggests an increased likelihood of ‘wetter than average conditions during autumn’.
• If we translate the Met Office statement, what they are really saying is, build an Arc, load up your livestock and get ready for massive storms.
• Parts of Essex are at risk of flooding due to high tides.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,157/oz vs US$4,192/oz previous

Gold ETFs 101.0moz vs 101.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,666/oz vs US$1,706/oz previous

Palladium US$1,128/oz vs US$1,151/oz previous

Silver US$59.3/oz vs US$60.6/oz previous

Silver ETFs 802.6moz vs 802.6moz previous

Rhodium US$9,350/oz vs US$9,200/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$14,574/t vs US$14,641/t previous

Aluminium US$3,036/t vs US$3,046/t previous

Nickel US$15,575/t vs US$15,645/t previous

Zinc US$3,727/t vs US$3,742/t previous

Lead US$1,900/t vs US$1,893/t previous

Tin US$51,300/t vs US$53,045/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$105.6/bbl vs US$105.4/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were broadly unchanged as continuing missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on Saudi Arabia keep Middle East tensions at the forefront of trader’s minds.
• European energy prices remain at elevated levels with France’s average nuclear generation down 2% w/w to 59% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €86.9/MWh vs €85.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $90.0/lb vs $90.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$90.7/t vs US$90.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$479.7/t vs US$479.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$267.0/t vs US$267.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$151.5/t vs US$151.5/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$39,345/t vs US$39,345/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$111,083/t vs US$110,520/t

Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$16,808/t vs US$16,802/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,565/t vs US$1,565/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,045/t vs US$1,045/t

Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,865/mtu vs US$1,865/mtu

Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,775/mtu vs US$2,775/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$243/lb vs US$243/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.5/kg vs US$26.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$177/t vs US$177/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,952/t vs US$2,952/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,173/t vs US$1,172/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$4,325.0/kg vs US$4,325.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$450.0/kg vs US$450.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb

EV & Battery news:

Company news:

Aterian* (ATN LN) 24p, Mkt Cap £4.7m – JV-funded mapping extends Amane to 2.50km ahead of Q4 scout drilling

• Aterian, who hold 85% of the 76.9km2 Azrar copper-silver project in Morocco, report initial mapping results.
• Lithosquare (the partner holding the other 15%) funds the programme and ranks drill targets using machine learning.
• Amane target:

• • Copper showings run 1.60km along strike, within a target now 2.50km long.
  • Only 4 of 22 planned mapping lines are complete.
  • Apparent thicknesses reach 7m at Amane West and 2m at Amane North, measured at surface.
  • Initial results indicate further strike potential of 1.00-1.20km north and 0.25km west.
  • Copper sits in two different rock units within the sequence.
  • Historic workings sit alongside visible copper.

• At the Tifrit target, new copper follows a rock layer 3m wide at surface and traced 50m.
• The copper is mainly hosted in malachite.
• Access works have started ahead of scout drilling in Q4, with mapping and sampling to follow.
• A hyperspectral survey is completing and will feed the drill targeting.
• Azrar sits around 45km east of Managem’s Tizert copper-silver project
• The Company calls the results ‘highly encouraging, although the continuity and full extent of the mineralisation remain to be determined.’

*SP Angel acts as Joint Broker to Aterian

CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) 7p, Mkt Cap £26m – Environmental consultant appointed for Laguna Verde as CFO term extended

• CleanTech Lithium, who are developing the Laguna Verde lithium brine project in Chile, appoint Gestión Ambiental Consultores.
• The consultancy will lead the Environmental Impact Assessment, with over 30 years of Chilean EIA work.
• Work starts immediately and runs a minimum of 12 months before submission to the authorities.
• Baseline studies cover climate, flora and fauna and water management across four full seasons.
• The EIA will be written while the baseline studies run, to keep the work programme efficient.
• The Colla Indigenous communities will provide input under an existing agreement with the Company.
• Chile’s new government has proposed reforms to speed up the EIA review process.
• Gordon Stein stays as non-board CFO, his consulting agreement extended to 31 December 2026.
• The role covers the strategic partner process and the proposed ASX dual listing.

Cornish Metals* (TIN LN) SUSPENDED – Shares suspended for Capital Access Window

• Capital access windows are designed to make it easier to provide pricing stability while a company reaches a broader range of investors during a fundraise.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad. An SP Angel analyst formerly worked in the South Crofty tin mine in the 1980s and holds shares in Cornish Metals.

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 2p, Mkt Cap £213m – Emphasis switches to exploration at Indiana project, Chile

Initiation Note 21/07/26 – BUY – 89p CLICK HERE

• Galantas Gold reports results from its continuing 12,500m drilling programme at its Indiana project near Copiapo, Chile.
• The company reports that it has now completed 16 holes totalling 5,960m and that all of the six holes reported today “returned gold-copper intersections, the majority of which are in newly identified structures outside the current Mineral Resource Estimate”.
• The project’s current ‘Inferred’ resource is 4.93mt at 2.24g/t Au and 1.31% Cu for 356koz Au and 65kt Cu.
• The drilling is testing “for extensions of known mineralization along strike and down-dip at the Bondadosa and Flor de Espino veins … [and] … for new mineralized structures not exposed at surface … [as well as] … for high-grade mineralization at structural intersections, and provide confirmatory and geotechnical information for mine design”.
• Results extend “mineralization and confirmed expected widths and grades for the Bondadosa and northwest-southeast Flor de Espino structures, and has also identified new, parallel mineralized structures with these orientations”.
• Today’s announcement highlights:

• • An intersection of 1.48m at an average grade of 10.3g/t gold and 1.4% copper from a depth of 172m in hole IN26-004; and
  • An intersection of 1.70m at an average grade of 2.16g/t gold and 5.2% copper from a depth of 306.1m in hole IN26-005; and
  • A 1m wide intersection at an average grade of 4.67g/t gold and 0.9% copper from a depth of 71.5m in hole IN26-006.

• As well as the drilling, a “total of 80 channel samples have been collected from the Flor de Espino ramp … [and showed] … a newly exposed structure in the Bondadosa access ramp is at least 5 m wide with visible pyrite and chalcopyrite (assays pending), and trenching across the Zeus structural system revealed up to 20 m of gold-copper mineralization at 0.40 g/t”.
• CEO, Mark Stifano, confirmed that “In light of these promising exploration opportunities, the Company is modifying its approach to advancing Indiana … [to focus on exploration in preference to] … short-term production”.
• Mr. Stifano also explained that the “PEA that was underway is being deferred pending further exploration results … [and that] … underground exploration development at Bondadosa and Flor de Espino veins will continue and the mineralized material extracted will be treated at the processing plant leased by the Company in Copiapó”.

Conclusion: The identification of additional mineralisation beyond the current MRE at Indiana is prompting a renewed focus on exploration with the current PEA being deferred so that it can accommodate the outcome of the exploration

*SP Angel act as Broker to Galantas Gold

Mkango Magnetic Materials* (MKA LN) 38p, Mkt Cap £151m – Texas Hub power supply secured with cutting/finishing commissioning 1H27 and Phase 1 mid-2028

BUY

• Mkango reported yesterday HyProMag USA (60/40 CoTec/MKA) secured power supply with Oncor for the Texas Hub.
• The agreement covers cutting and finishing operations as well as integrated Phase 1 magnet recycling operations.
• The company expects power to come predominantly from renewable sources.
• Phase 2 is subject to a substation upgrade.
• Cutting and finishing envisages the initial magnet finishing operations using magnet blocks supplied by HyProMag operations in the UK and Germany.
• Commissioning of cutting and finishing would allow to start qualification process of produced magnets and help with personnel training.
• Phase 1 includes integrated recycling and magnet manufacturing stage running at ~1,034tpa NdFeB payable production (~550tpa sintered magnet blocks and finished magnets, ~484tpa co-products).
• Cutting and finishing start guided for 1H27.
• Phase 1 start guided for mid-2028.
• Phase 2 plans to expand capacity to ~1,526tpa NdFeB payable production (~1,048tpa blocks and magnets, ~478tpa co-products).
• Weston Solutions is advancing permitting while engineering partner PegasusTSI has started a request for quotation (RFQ) process to select a general contractor for cutting and finishing.

Conclusion: Securing grid capacity for the Texas Hub further de-risks development schedule for magnet recycling capacities in the US. The plan is to launch cutting and finishing operations to kick start qualification process for produced magnets (1H27) ahead of commissioning of integrated HPMS based recycling operations (mid-2028).

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Mkango Resources

Metals One plc (MET1 LN)– 1.14p, Mkt cap £15 – Black Schist project in Finland under review

• Metals One reports that the European Commission has declined to recognise the company’s “non-core” Black Schist nickel/copper/cobalt/zinc project in Finland as an EU Strategic Project.
• Managing Director, Daniel Maling, described the failure to achieve Strategic Project status as “disappointing … [but said that] … we are encouraged by the positive acknowledgements within the assessment, particularly regarding its technical potential and the quality of the environmental planning undertaken to date”.
• Today’s announcement explains that “the Board is reviewing its options with regard to the Project”.
• Mr. Maling confirmed that the “Company’s near-term focus remains the significant opportunity in South Africa and advancing and restarting the Barbrook acquisition as part of building a vertically integrated gold business”.
• We understand that the project hosts an overall ‘Inferred’ mineral resource estimate of 57.1mt at an average grade of 0.18% nickel, 0.09% copper, 0.01% cobalt and 0.35% zinc.

NEU Battery Materials (NBM CN) C$0.16, Mkt cap C$25m – Raising of S$9.7m for lithium recycling in Singapore

• NEU Battery Materials raised S$9.7m to run its new Singapore recycling plant and expand abroad.
• The company recovers lithium from spent LFP batteries, producing battery-grade hydroxide then carbonate.
• The new plant handles 1,300t of battery materials a year but will not start at full capacity.
• Feedstock is currently mostly factory rejects rather than batteries from retired EVs.
• LFP makes up >55% of EV batteries and >90% of battery storage systems worldwide (IEA).

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 13.75p, Mkt Cap £59m – Initial hole at El Cedro, Colombia mineralised over more than 250m from surface

(Minera Anzá, and Minera Monte Aguila are wholly owned subsidiaries of Orosur)

• Orosur Mining reports that its first drillhole, CED-001, in the southern part of the El Cedro prospect in its Anzá exploration project in Colombia is continuing “to show consistent gold mineralisation from surface and remains open at depth”.
• Hole CED-001 “has been restarted after premature termination … [at a depth of 267m] … due to drilling issues … [and is now] … planned to continue to original target depth of 500m” in hole CED-001A.
• The hole is testing the “the SE flank of the northern intrusion, close to the major structures that divide the northern and southern intrusions … for potential intrusion related alteration that might produce wider scale mineralisation”.
• Mineralisation has been confirmed over “the entire interval … for a composite intersection of 267.4m @ 0.65g/t Au, from surface” including highlighted intersections reported today of:

• • 46.3m at an average grade of 1g/t gold from 19.2m depth; and
  • 28.25m at an average grade of 1.01g/t from 118.75m; and
  • 22.2m at an average grade of 1.01g/t from 225.2m.

• Geological results so far show “evidence of multiple hydrothermal events, consistent with a major intrusion related mineralized system … [which are interpreted to] … create a favourable, large-scale setting for gold mineralization”.

Conclusion: Despite operational drilling challenges, the first hole at El Cedro is encountering low-grade gold mineralisation and favourable geological alteration throughout the upper 267m as it proceeds to a target depth of 500m.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 6,983p, Mkt cap £88bn – 2026 production guidance intact after robust quarter from copper, iron ore and aluminium

• Reporting Q3 production in what Chief Executive, Simon Trott, described as delivering “strong operational performance” Rio Tinto highlights the ramp-up of copper output at the Oyu Togoi mine and of iron-ore at Simandou.
• Oyu Tolgoi, in Mongolia, showed a 29% increase in copper production YTD “with the operation running at a ~450 kt annualised rate in the quarter”.
• Simandou “hit an annualised production run-rate of ~10 Mtpa (100% basis) in the quarter as the project continues to ramp up”.
• Mr. Trott said that Rio Tinto is “finishing the year with momentum” and the company is maintaining its current full year production guidance across its range of commodities.
• Quarterly copper output of 205kt brings YTD production to 646kt and keeps the 2026 guidance range of 800-870kt intact.
• Reflecting the CEO’s emphasis on Oyu Tolgoi’s underground ramp-up, on a YTD basis, the mine is now the Group’s largest copper producer contributing 312kt (48%) of the total followed by Escondida which added a further 216kt (33% from concentrate production and 53kt (8%) from refined metal.
• The underground operation at Oyu Tolgoi delivered “higher ore grades and improved recovery rates … [although their full impact was partially offset by] …  a planned concentrator shutdown” during the quarter.
• Escondida’s concentrate production slipped by 18% vs 2025 on a YTD basis as a consequence of “lower throughput caused by scheduled maintenance … planned lower feed grades … [and] … severe weather disruptions”.
• Kennecott (66kt of copper) represented the balance of Rio Tinto’s copper output.
• Quarterly production of 83.4mt from the West Australian iron-ore business brought the YTD output to 245.7mt keeping existing sales guidance of 323-338mt intact.
• Rio Tinto comments that the WA Iron-Ore sales were supported by “mine performance and sustained healthy port inventories”.
• Simandou achieved a “~10 Mtpa (100%) production run-rate … in Q3 … [as] … Fixed-plant commissioning and operational readiness continued to progress as planned, supporting the transition to permanent plant infrastructure in Q4”.
• Quarterly bauxite production declined 4% to 15.7mt compared to Q3 2025 bringing YTD to 44.2mt and maintaining 2026 guidance in the range 58-61mt.
• Alumina production of 2.1mt during the quarter brings YTD output to 6.1mt with guidance intact at 7.6-8.0mt.
• Aluminium guidance for the year is maintained at 3.24-3.45mt following quarterly production of 800kt bringing output so fat this year to 2.52mt.
• On a lithium carbonate equivalent basis quarterly output of 13,000t brings nine-month production to 40,300t and confirms guidance in the range 61-64,000t although Rio Tinto says that it expects performance at the lower end of the range with Q3 output at Olaroz “affected by planned annual maintenance and lower lithium concentration in the ponds following weather events”.
• LCE output at Fenix was impacted by “Planned annual maintenance on Lines 0 and 1A, and severe weather in July” with the ramp up at Sal de Vida “progressing slower than anticipated due to available uptime of key equipment”.
• Commenting on the global background to its operations where “growth moderated slightly through Q3 due to persistent geopolitical and energy market uncertainty” Rio Tinto says that continuing “disruptions in the Middle East continued to drive volatility in energy and freight markets … [although the operational] … impacts to Rio Tinto remained limited, with no material disruption to production or outbound supply chains”.
• Chinese “domestic economic activity moderated in Q3, with strong export demand and manufacturing activity partly offset by weaker domestic consumption and investment … [while the US economy] … remained resilient, supported by AI-related investment, broader business spending and consumer demand. Inflation remained elevated, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September”.

Conclusion: Rio Tinto is maintaining its 2026 production guidance across its commodity groups with the company emphasising the stability of its operations and its resilience to current supply chain disruption. Oyu Tolgoi has now become Rio Tinto’s largest copper producer and Simandou has hit a remaining on track to deliver mtpa production rate

Thor Explorations (THR LN) 58p, Mkt Cap £393m – 3Q26 production update with FY26 guidance cut

• Thor released 3Q26 production results for its Segilola Gold Mine in Nigeria.
• Production 15.5koz, down on 19.2koz 2Q26.
• The mill treated ~250kt at 2.10g/t and 92.8% recoveries (2Q26: 241kt at 2.57g/t and 93.3%).
• Lower production attributed to severe rainfall in late August.
• Sales 19.0koz at an average US$4,297/oz.
• YTD production 54.9koz.
• 2026 guidance cut to 70-72koz from 75-85koz while AISC maintained at US$1,000-1,200/oz.
• Drilling at Segilola aimed at extending LOM is ongoing.
• At Douta (Senegal), the company says it is in the final stages of discussions on the Mining Convention, which is the last outstanding item before FID.
• An updated MRE is due by year-end and will feed an optimised PFS.
• Cash was US$224.9m plus 2.8koz of bullion, for adjusted net cash of US$236.7m.

SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

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Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

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A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange

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