SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Wednesday 11th March 2026

Gold consolidates at higher level as dollar rally fades

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Dokwe drilling extends mineralisation to the northeast

Canyon Resources (CAY AU) – First bauxite shipments due 3Q26

Franco-Nevada (FNV AU) – Focus on return of Cobre Panama as guidance rises

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) – Woodlawn steady-state guided for March quarter

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) – $110/kg NdPr price floor agreed with Japanese buyers

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – £0.5m funding for the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe

Rainbow Rare Earths* (RBW LN) – PEA and agreement with Mosaic on Uberaba Project in Brazil for REE extraction

Gold ($5,188/oz) consolidates at higher level as dollar rally fades

• Gold spiked to $5,224/oz yesterday before paring gains slightly this morning.
• The metal was victim to a wider market sell-off as funds sold down gold positions to satisfy margin requirements elsewhere.
• The dollar rally is cooling, having risen over 2.5% over the past month in the wake of the attacks on Iran.
• US Treasuries are selling off, with the 10 year yield rising to 4.17% having touched 3.95%.
• Ultimately, Trump has instigated a new era of US foreign policy focused on swift moves of aggression.
• We would expect this to further encourage countries like China to diversify their foreign reserve asset base, favouring gold.

Copper – China unwrought copper imports fell 7.2% yoy to 837kt in the first two months of the year

• Concentrate imports climbed 1.3% to 4.71mt

Lithium – Rio Tinto secures $1.175bn financing for Rincon in Argentina

• Rincon recently reported its first export commercial production of 200t of lithium carbonate to China
• Rincon produced first lithium from a small-scale 3,000tpa DLE plant in Salta last year
• Capex US$2.5bn for Rincón expansion
• Phase 1 Development (2026-2028) – US$1.3bn for 25,000 tpa capacity starting 2028
• Phase 2 Expansion (2028-2031) – US$1.4bn for additional 28,000 tpa capacity
• Total lithium carbonate production targeting 60,000tpa vs 53,000tpa previously
• Argentine brine operations can achieve C1 operating costs of US$5-8/kg of lithium carbonate equivalent when operating at full capacity.

Interviews – IG TV Indaba interview: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

• Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/OEvjlwDdmQ8?si=Ej5UcV91750ErDPk
• VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed
• New commodities cycle: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

Currencies

US$1.1613/eur vs 1.1652/eur previous. Yen 158.34/$ vs 157.46/$. SAr 16.316/$ vs 16.265/$. $1.343/gbp vs $1.347/gbp. 0.717/aud vs         0.710/aud. CNY 6.869/$ vs 6.874/$.

Dollar Index 98.86 vs   98.59 previous.

Economics

India – Exports of finished steel jump 36.6% yoy to 6.02mt for the first 11 months of the financial year

• Imports of Finished steel fell 37.4% to 5.6m yoy
• Consumption of finished steel also grew 7.2% to 148mt
• Crude steel production rises by 11.2% yoy to 154mt (Reuters)
• India remains the world’s second-largest producer of crude steel

UK – 1982 vs 2026

• On April 2nd,1982, the UK / Royal Navy assembled a task force to counter the invasion of the Falkland Islands by Argentina.
• The task force set sail within 72 hours using 125 ships and 2 aircraft carriers. The fleet set sail on April 5th, 1982.
• The US started bombing Iran on Saturday 28^th February. It has taken 11 days to prepare a single ship to set sail to Cyprus.
• HMS Dragon will not arrive for another week, a full 18 days after the US operation started.

Precious metals:

Gold US$5,187/oz vs US$5,180/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.8moz vs 99.7moz previous

Platinum US$2,179/oz vs US$2,225/oz previous

Palladium US$1,657/oz vs US$1,703/oz previous

Silver US$86.9/oz vs US$89.0/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 819.2moz vs 820.7moz previous

Rhodium US$11,650/oz vs US$11,650/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$13,002/t vs US$13,112/t previous

Aluminium US$3,402/t vs US$3,329/t previous

Nickel US$17,405/t vs US$17,525/t previous

Zinc US$3,320/t vs US$3,360/t previous

Lead US$1,942/t vs US$1,938/t previous

Tin US$50,050/t vs US$50,005/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$89.7/bbl vs US$90.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices remain volatile as the API estimated a US oil inventory draw of 1.7mb w/w, contrary to the 1.4mb build expected, as well as draws of 1.8mb to gasoline and 2.3mb to distillate stocks.
• The EIA’s March STEO expects the Strait of Hormuz’s temporary closure to lower global liquid fuels production growth to 0.7mb/d in 2026 (revised from 1.6mb/d last month) before increasing 1.4mb/d in 2027, causing inventories to rise by 1.9mb/d in 2026 and 3mb/d in 2027. Global liquid fuels consumption is forecast to grow at 1.2mb/d and 1.4mb/d next.
• European energy prices also continue to trade just under $100/bbl equivalent, as France’s nuclear generation fell 1% w/w to 75% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €49.0/MWh vs €47.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.7/lb vs $85.7/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.2/t vs US$103.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.9/t vs US$465.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$221.5/t vs US$223.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$138.5/t vs US$144.5/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$118,288/t vs US$123,654/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,420/t vs US$22,403/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,185/t vs US$2,185/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,248/mtu vs US$2,183/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$206/lb vs US$201/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vs US$5.7/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.4/kg vs US$28.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$260/t vs US$260/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,143/t vs US$1,142/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,045.0/kg vs US$3,045.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery new

Company News:

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 2p, Mkt Cap £50m – Dokwe drilling extends mineralisation to the northeast

• Ariana Resources reports that it has now completed its 2025/26 reverse-circulation (RC) drilling programme at Dokwe North and Dokwe Central in Zimbabwe.
• The 31 holes (5,659m) extend the known mineralisation at Dokwe North “up to 150 metres beyond the current resource envelope to the north-east” and show “potential for near-surface oxide resource growth”.
• The reverse-circulation results highlighted in today’s announcement are:
  • A 4m wide intersection at an average grade of 16.90g/t gold from a depth of 69m in hole DRC-25.  The intersection is described as “one of the highest-grade RC intersections drilled during the 2025-2026 programme … [occurring] … within the Inferred part of the current resource model”; and
  • A 10m wide intersection at an average grade of 7.67g/t gold from a depth of 110m in hole DRC-23; and
  • Another 10m wide intersection at an average grade of 4.91g/t gold from a depth of 156m in hole DRC-22.
• Results from some holes remain to be received but today’s announcement says that “Visual geological indicators from logging, such as silicification, shearing and pyrite mineralisation, highlight the potential for mineralisation in these holes”.
• Setting a positive tone on the RC drilling, Ariana Resources says that “Additional holes, beyond the original plan, were drilled at Dokwe Central and Dokwe North based on positive geological indicators, which primarily confirmed the continuation of host lithologies, deformation, silicification and sulphide mineralisation associated with gold mineralisation within the Dokwe North shear zone”.
• A diamond drilling programme is due to start at Dokwe North in late March “as a prelude to potential JORC resource review”.
• The planned diamond drilling aims to:
  • Confirm the structural geology and test depth extensions of the mineralisation; and
  • Extend the strike coverage of the mineral potential with ‘step-out’ drilling; as well as
  • Test “opportunities to expand and upgrade the existing Mineral Resource”.
• Ariana Resources describes the mineralisation at Dokwe North as a “a NE-SW trending shear‑hosted gold system characterised by strong structural control, intense foliation with lesser localised quartz veins”.
• At a cut-off grade of 0.3g/t gold, current ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resources at Dokwe total 1.4moz hosted in ~45mt at an average grade of ~1g/t gold.
• Dokwe Central hosts 1.3moz in 43mt at a grade of 0.95g/t gold with the balance of 100koz located at Dokwe North in ~1.9mt at an average grade of 1.6g/t gold.
• Summarising the RC drilling work Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, said that it “successfully tested extensions both along strike and down‑dip of the shear zone, and the results reinforce the potential to expand the existing Dokwe Mineral Resource”.
• He confirmed that the “diamond drilling … later this month in this area aims to confirm the structural interpretation, test further extensions of the system and support future resource growth at Dokwe”.

Conclusion: Recent drilling at Dokwe has identified additional potential along the mineralised shear zone 150m northeast of the current resources at Dokwe North.  Diamond drilling to expand and upgrade the resource, starting later this month, should help clarify the resource expansion potential

Canyon Resources (CAY AU) A$0.14, Mkt Cap A$289m – First bauxite shipments due 3Q26

• Canyon provides an update on their Minim Martip Bauxite project in Cameroon.
• The Company is targeting first production and initial shipments in 2026.
• Management reports that surface miner has been mobilised to site, with mining operations due to begin before the end of March.
• First Bauxite production is targeted in early 2Q26.
• Company notes that the A$170m worth of placings from Afriland and Eagle Eye was not approved by shareholders.
• However, Canyon notes that the Minim Martip remains fully funded with $95m undrawn of the $140m credit facility, alongside a $43m cash position.
• Company expects sufficient liquidity to meet CAPEX requirements through to first shipment in 3Q26.
• First locomotives are due to arrive in 2Q26, supporting ore transport to port.
• Management notes they are advancing logistics, offtake discussions and downstream feasibility studies.

Franco-Nevada (FNV AU) C$357, Mkt Cap C$69bn – Focus on return of Cobre Panama as guidance rises

• Streaming and royalty company Franco Nevada reports 2025 results.
• The Company generated $1.8bn in revenue, up 64% yoy.
• The Company sold 519koz AuEq, up 12%.
• Adj. EBITDA reported at $1.7bn, up 74%.
• Net income reported at $1.1bn, up 101%.
• Revenue breakdown:
  • Gold: $1.3bn
  • Silver: $0.24bn
  • PGM: $0.04bn
  • Iron ore: $0.04bn
  • Oil: $0.1bn
• Acquisitions:
  • royalty portfolio from Victoria Gold over the year for C$55m.
  • royalty over Minerals260 was acquired via a $120m financing and a $35m placing.
  • royalty with i-80 Gold for $250m NSR
  • $100m stream deal with Orezone over the Casa Beradri gold mine
  • royalty over Yilgarn Star gold
• Franco also provides an update on Cobre Panama, where management notes processing of stockpiled ore could begin within three months of the integral audit.
• Company guides for 510-570koz AuEq for 2026.

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) 658p, Mkt Cap £3.4bn – Woodlawn steady-state guided for March quarter

• Hochschild reported annual results to 31^st December 2025.
• The Company reported revenue up 25% to $1.2bn and adj. EBITDA up 39% to $584m.
• EPS reported at $0.31/share.
• Cash increased to $317m, whilst net debt fell to $23m from $216m.
• Hochschild reported production at 312koz AuEq from 347koz in 2024.
• Hochschild guides for 300-328koz AuEq in 2026 at AISC of $2,157-2,320/oz AuEq split between:
  • Immaculada: 174-185koz at AISC of $2,047-2,175/oz
  • Mara Rosa: 67-80koz at AISC of $2,296-2,520/oz
  • San Jose: 59-63koz at AISC of $2,304-2,495/oz
• Sustaining CAPEX guided at $210-225m.
• On exploration, the Company reported the addition of 1.7moz AuEq.
• Hochschild has approved a brownfield exploration budget of $45m.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) A$21, Mkt Cap A$21bn – $110/kg NdPr price floor agreed with Japanese buyers

• Lynas has reaffirmed their Marketing Agreement to supply NdPr to Japanese industry.
• Lynas and JARE have agreed revised terms for JARE, led by JOGMEC and Sojitz, to purchase 5ktpa NdPr with an agreed market-linked floor price to 2038.
• 75% of all HRE oxides produced by Lynas will be made available to Japanese industry.
• The two parties have agreed a market-based offtake price with a floor of $110/kg NdPr.
• Additionally, an upside sharing agreement has been signed should Lynas’ price rise above $150/kg NdPr, where an amount equal to 30% of the upside above the level will be paid to JARE, capped at $10m/year.

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.02p, Mkt Cap £3.3m – £0.5m funding for the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe

• Premier African Minerals has announced that it has raised £500,000 from subscriptions for ~2.7bn new shares at a price of 0.0185p/share.
• In addition, the company has issued a further ~541m shares at the same price in settlement of creditor invoices.
• We estimate that the subscription shares, together with the shares issued to creditors represent ~18.5% of the enlarged company.
• The additional funds will “assist with operational requirements, the ongoing installation and commissioning of the 15-20 TPH flotation plant manufactured by Xinhai Technology Processing EPC … with the objective of enabling … [the company’s] … Zulu … [lithium project in Zimbabwe] … to produce product at commercially acceptable levels of grade and recovery”.
• CEO, Graham Hill, described the funds as providing “important working capital to support ongoing operational requirements at Zulu and the continued progress of the installation and commissioning of the Xinhai Flotation Plant. Maintaining the momentum we have created in advancing the Xinhai Flotation Plant is of vital importance as we move toward stable operations and a positive future at Zulu”.
• Earlier this year, Premier African Minerals raised £1m at 0.03p/share to install the new flotation plant which arrived on site at Zulu in early March. The latest fundraising also follows an August 2025 funding which raised around £1.4m at a price of 0.023p/share.

Rainbow Rare Earths* (RBW LN) 26.5p, mkt Cap £170m – PEA and agreement with Mosaic on Uberaba Project in Brazil for REE extraction

(Joint Project Development Agreement 51% Mosaic and 49% Rainbow)

• Rainbow Rare Earths have released results from a positive EA ‘Economic Assessment’ on the Uberaba Project in Brazil.
• The EA results show good reason for the team to start work on a more detailed PFS leading, almost certainly, to a DFS in short order.
• Uberaba looks like a good second opportunity for Rainbow using the same process methodology as developed for Phalaborwa in South Africa.
• Uberaba EA, assuming current REE pricing shows:
  • Post-tax NPV10 is US$916m
  • Post-tax IRR of 45%
  • Revenue – $319mpa
  • EBITDA of US$217mpa
  • Throughput 2.7mtpa – note feedstock is already crushed
  • LoM >30 year starting in 2030
  • Pay-back 1.7 years
• REE production est.
  • NdPr oxide 1,971tpa
• SEG+, 659tpa inc.
  • Dysprosium (“Dy”) – 60tpa
  • Terbium (“Tb”) – 14tpa
  • Yttrium (“Y”) – 188tpa
• Mosaic, Joint Project Development Agreement 51% Mosaic and 49% Rainbow:
  • “Rainbow and Mosaic are targeting initial production for 2030, subject to further studies, regulatory approvals, financing arrangements, investment decisions, and successful project execution”
  • “IP developed for the Phalaborwa project, further supported by collaborative test work between Rainbow and Mosaic.”
• Rainbow is making an important and significant geographical diversification.
• Management have now used the metallurgical technology and process engineering skills present in South Africa to work out how to produce rare earths from phosphogypsum residues from two active phosphate mining and processing operations.
• Uberaba vs Phalaborwa
  • Uberaba is more than twice the scale of Phalaborwa and is likely to build out using Stage 1 and Stage 2 process plants.
  • Uberaba phosphogypsum stack grade of 0.58% TREO Total Rare Earth Oxides vs 0.44% TREO at Phalaborwa.
  • Uberaba basket price is ~US$128/kg with NdPr representing ~25% of the total and offering superior economics.
  • Phalaborwa’s REE basked price is ~US$127/kg, despite the slightly lower head grade due to a slightly stronger NdPr weighting.
  • The cost of finance for Brazil should also be significantly cheaper than for South Africa
  • The process engineering expertise inherent in South Africa makes Phalaborwa a better place to work out any commissioning issues.
• Mineral processing: We believe this technology should also apply to other phosphate operators including:
  • OCP (Morocco), Mosaic (US), Nutrien (Canada), Ma’aden (Saudi), ICL (Israel), EuroChem (Swiss), Jordan Phosphate, J.R. Simplot (US)

Conclusion: Rainbow management will be picking their apartments on the Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro sometime soon.

Not only will Rainbow produce more of the valuable REEs so badly needed by the west but it should now treble previously planned capacity through the processing of feedstock from Uberaba.

Phalaborwa should see first production in 2028 with Uberaba close behind in 2030.

*The SP Angel analyst recently visited the Rainbow pilot process plant in Johannesburg and will report on its operation.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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