SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Tuesday 7th April 2026

Gold continues to recover as markets stabilise and haven appeal returns

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – Trading update highlights expansion in Rwanda trading

Bradda Head (BHL LN) – Assays for Whistlejacket Project show high-grade lithium in spodumene

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Deep drilling results from the Blanket mine, Zimbabwe

DPM Metals (DPM CN) – 2025 annual report

Core Lithium (CXO AU) – Open pit mining contract awarded with first concentrate targeted DecQ

Kazera Global (KZG LN) – Board changes

Marimaca Copper (MARI CN) – Silver assays show strong correlation to copper grades at Pampa Medina

Robex Resources (RXR AU) – Kiniero produces 39koz in first quarter of steady state production

TNR Gold (TNR CN) – Altius takes 9.9% in private placement

Gold ($4,682/oz) continues to recover as markets stabilise and haven appeal returns

• Gold prices continue to hold higher highs, stabilising above $4,650/oz .
• The metal fell victim to a rise on overly speculative positioning into the end of February, taking it to new record highs over $5,500/oz.
• This was subsequently wiped out, seeing gold prices fall back to $4,100/oz, likely compounded by emergency selling from the Turkish central bank.
• Gold has since recovered, potentially from more liquid central banks taking advantage of the pull-back in prices as part of their longer term strategy of diversifying their reserve base.
• The dollar has strengthened but is yet to break through the 100 mark on the index convincingly.
• The Bank of France has pulled 129t of gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, replacing it with bullion in Paris vaults as part of a long-term repatriation of gold to France.
• Chinese ETF demand has been resilient through March, holding steady vs a decline in North America.
• Gold held by global investors accounts for 3% of the $320tn invested across other assets, including equities, debt, alternative assets, WGC reports.
• We continue to see emerging market central bank buying as a key demand driver over the longer term, with allocations standing at c.15% vs 30% developed market central banks.
• Returning to the Petrodollar system, we see the US’ recent actions in Iran as undermining the status quo of Gulf countries pricing oil in dollars and allocating reserves into US Treasuries.
• Reduced confidence in US protection in the Gulf may push oil rich countries to diversify their foreign reserve holdings away from dollar-backed assets, potentially supporting gold’s long-term momentum.
• China is increasingly pricing commodities in renmimibi as it moves away from dollar-based trade, as seen with BHP iron ore sales into China.
• BRIC countries have been discussing an alternative payments system to further reduce reliance on dollar-based payments, potentially integrating gold.
• Ultimately, the long-term trends remain intact for gold, with emerging market countries continuing to seek foreign reserve diversification away from US Treasuries and the dollar.

How the Iran conflict is reshaping global commodity markets – IG TV: https://youtu.be/oE6-k3hQDsM?si=sXBMY_UOZpvMP8EA

Oil, LNG and helium – what the Middle East conflict means for energy markets – IG TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlMVGvbgE9o

Currencies

US$1.1543/eur vs 1.5290/eur previous. Yen 159.83/$ vs 159.62/$. SAr 16.928/$ vs 16.956/$. $1.324/gbp vs $1.321/gbp. 0.692/aud vs         0.688/aud. CNY 6.873/$ vs 6.893/$.

Dollar Index 100.04 vs 100.15 previous.

Economics

US – Equity futures flat as President Trump extended deadline for Iran to agree to a deal expire 8pm ET Tuesday.

• “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” President Trump told reports on Monday.
• Earlier, Iran rejected a US proposal for an immediate ceasefire and lifting of the strait blockade.
• Brent is trading over $110/bbl mark.

US inflation numbers are due this Friday with an energy shock expected to see CPI adding 1pp in March.

• Headline CPI is forecast at 3.4%, up from 2.4%.
• March es guided to show the largest increase in headline inflation since June 2022..
• Core CPI that excludes energy and food expected to add 0.2pp to 2.7%.

NFPs released last Friday showed a strong 178k print and unemployment rate falling in March.

• That was the largest increase in jobs since the end of 2024, beating all Bloomberg estimates.
• A bounce back in employment was expected following a strike by more than 30k healthcare workers and severe winter weather weighing on numbers in February.
• The increase was actually broader than expected, although, a recovery in healthcare contributed significantly.
• Payrolls climbed 68k in the first three months of thus year on average, the strongest run in nearly a year.
• NFPs (Mar/Feb/Est): 178k / -133k (revised from -92k) / 65k
• Unemployment Rate (Mar/Feb/Est): 4.3 / 4.4 / 4.4
• Av Hourly Earnings (%mom, Mar/Feb/Est): 0.2 / 0.4 / 0.3
• Av Hourly Earnings (%yoy, Mar/Feb/Est): 3.5 / 3.8 / 3.7

Europe – Sentix index falls on rising risk of potential recession Slumps as Recession Risk Returns and Inflation Fears Surge

• The Sentix investor confidence index fell to -19.2 from -3.1
• The move marks an accelerating collapse in investor sentiment driven by rising energy prices.
• Inflation is also rising on logistics disruption and higher energy costs with many companies imposing energy surcharges.

Iran – IAF dismantles >130 Iranian air defense systems

• The Israeli Air Force has taken out >130 Iranian defense systems.
• The IAF is also striking infrastructure in Tehran including a central site used by the IRGC for supressing the civilian population.
• The IAF also struck the IRGC Air Force headquarters in Tehran and a central site for the production of defense systems.
• The IAF also struck ballistic missile storage and launch sites which they believe were preparing for attacks on Israel.
• According to the IDF, dozens of missiles had been launched from the site toward Israel.
• Strikes also included facilities for the production of chemicals for explosives and other materials used in ballistic missile development.

Trump threatens to decimate Iranian bridges and other infrastructure

• Israel tells Iranians not to travel by train.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,647/oz vs US$4,551/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.5moz vs 97.9moz previous

Platinum US$1,965/oz vs US$1,919/oz previous

Palladium US$1,491/oz vs US$1,436/oz previous

Silver US$72.2/oz vs US$71.9/oz previous

Silver ETFs 798.1moz vs 798.8moz previous

Rhodium US$10,100/oz vs US$10,100/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$12,419/t vs US$12,335/t previous

Aluminium US$3,506/t vs US$3,508/t previous

Nickel US$17,020/t vs US$17,008/t previous

Zinc US$3,301/t vs US$3,269/t previous

Lead US$1,939/t vs US$1,929/t previous

Tin US$46,350/t vs US$46,677/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$111.1/bbl vs US$107.5/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices climbed over the weekend after US President Trump’s fouled-mouth rant, which gave the Iranian authorities until this evening to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face military attacks on their civilian infrastructure.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count rose 5 to 548 units last week (-42 or -7% y/y), as oil rigs rose 2 to 411 units (-70 y/y) and gas rigs up 3 to 130 units (+26 y/y), with the Eagle Ford Formation gaining 3 rigs w/w to 45 units (-3 y/y).
• Henry Hub prices edged lower after the EIA reported a 36bcf w/w storage build to 1,865bcf, with US inventories now 5% above last year’s level and 3% above the five-year average as LNG exports rose to an all-time high of 11.7mt in March buoyed by the start-up of QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil’s 6mmtpa Golden Pass LNG project from its first train.
• The Israeli Energy Ministry has rescinded an order for the temporary shutdown of NewMed (Leviathan) offshore gas field, which was put in place as a precaution due to deterioration in the regional security environment in early March.
• Rex announced that its 87.5%-owned Omani subsidiary now expects to commence a planned drilling programme of three development wells on the offshore Yumna Field in Block 50 during May.
• Cue Energy’s independent board members have recommended that shareholders reject Horizon Oil’s takeover bid, citing the 10% premium for control implied by the offer as inadequate due to the potential G&A synergies being understated and minimal value being ascribed to the unutilised A$91m carry forward tax loss balance.

Natural Gas €50.8/MWh vs €49.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $84.8/lb vs $84.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$106.4/t vs US$106.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$468.6/t vs US$468.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$233.5/t vs US$235.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$141.0/t vs US$145.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$109,494/t vs US$104,979/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,117/t vs US$22,407/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,080/t vs US$2,100/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,443/mtu vs US$2,443/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$253/lb vs US$253/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.8/kg vs US$28.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$258/t vs US$258/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,759/t vs US$2,759/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,142/t vs US$1,142/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vs US$387.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Chinese car exports to EU passed 1m mark in 2025

• China’s car exports to the European Union surged 30.7% in 2025 as they passed the 1m mark for the first time.
• The share of Chinese-made cars in the EU market has climbed to 7% from 5% in 2022.
• The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) has highlighted the trade imbalance between the EU and China, with EU car exports to China plunging 43% in 2025.

Company News:

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 31p, Mkt Cap £5.5m – Trading update highlights expansion in Rwanda trading

(Aterian owns 100% of the Eastinco trading platform which operates out of Rwanda in a strategic jv with Wogen, the London-based international trading house.

In Rwanda, Aterian also holds an effective 100% stake in the Musasa Mining Licenses plus a 70% interest in Kinunga Mining Limited which holds the HCK licence alongside HCK Mining Company Limited which has a 30% interest.

• Aterian plc reports strong growth in its trading activities through the first quarter in Rwanda generating a gross profit of ~US$306,000.
• The report represents a significant increase on the US$145,000 generated in Q4 2025 reflecting higher volumes and improved efficiency.
• Management are “particularly encouraged by the growing consistency of supply from compliant sources and the strengthening demand environment”
• The trading business is reported to be a “robust and scalable trading model capable of delivering meaningful cash generation”
• Management see the Eastinco trading platform “as a credible and differentiated participant in the international critical minerals market.”
• HCK Project – Kinunga jv (Rwanda)
• Management are also looking at the tantalum potential in the upper weathered portions of the pegmatites at the HCK project.
• The project might provide additional valuable material for the trading operation.
• Tantalum ores and concentrates from HCK would provide a fully integrated and traceable supply, from mine to market, enabling premium prices for tantalum concentrate.
• Tantalum has been mined in historical workings on the property
• Management are likely to expose pegmatites through trenching at HCK-1 and to use this for bulk sampling.
• Drilling done by Rio Tinto shows multiple, sub-parallel dykes with trench samples of uncontaminated clean pegmatite.
• Management plan to run particle-size analysis to determine how much tantalum sits in the minus 1mm fraction which is the most difficult size to recover.
• The team are looking at sinking some shallow exploration shafts to 15-20m for additional samples and shallow drilling to see the pegmatite contact.
• Management are also working with a consultant to design and build a small pilot wash plant capable of 1-2tph from the excavated shafts.
• The work enable the team to scale-up the process plant based on a sense of the volume/tonnage potential from future opencast working.
• Sales from the processing of near-surface material at HCK should enable deeper drilling to evaluate bedrock lithium opportunity.
• Musasa (Rwanda) exploration Licence
• Early reconnaissance has identified multiple pegmatites on the licence.
• The team will look to map and collect pit samples.
• A cooperative is operating and producing good-grade tantalum concentrate from pegmatites adjacent to Musasa.
• Previous unofficial mining at Musasa targeted beryllium

Conclusion:  Growth in trading of tantalum concentrates should enable Aterian to kick start development at HCK and further expand their  Rwandan trading platform. We see this as offering good potential to expand Aterian’s operations in Rwanda, Morocco and Botswana.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

Bradda Head (BHL LN) 1.4p, Mkt Cap £5.5m – Assays for Whistlejacket Project show high-grade lithium in spodumene

• Lithium explorer Bradda Head reports exploration results from the Whistlejacket Property, where they have a right to earn 51%.
• The Company highlights 2022-23 exploration results by Kennecott Exploration.
• Kennecott completed two diamond drilling programmes over 4,188m, intercepting LCT pegmatites at the Project in northwestern Arizona.
• Highlights include:
  • WSTL0009: 51m at 1.11% Li2O and 10.7m at 0.97% Li2O
  • WSTL0008: 19.5m at 1.66% Li2O and 13.6m at 1.31% Li2O
  • WSTL0001: 5.5m at 2.04% Li2O
• Bradda Head notes the mapped lithium pegmatite mineralisation covers a strike length of 2.2km.
• The exploration team believes there are two-three sub-horizontal pegmatite bodies.
• Going forward, exploration work is due to focus on  additional surface mapping alongside chip and channel sampling to refine pegmatite targets.
• Mineralogical and metallurgical testwork will also be completed to evaluate DMS processing options.

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 1,785p, Mkt Cap £338m – Deep drilling results from the Blanket mine, Zimbabwe

• Caledonia Mining reports that ~10,312m of deep drilling at its Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe competed between March-December 2025 has demonstrated grades from the “Blanket and Eroica orebodies returned grades and widths consistent with, or better than, expectations”.
• The results of holes aimed at “increasing confidence in the existing mineral resources and growing the mineral resource estimate beyond 34 level, which is at 1,110 metres below surface … [also confirmed the presence of the Lima orebody] … to 34 level, supporting potential depth extensions … [and] … multiple wide zones within the newly identified Blanket 7 (“BLK7”) orebody”.
• The announcement said that these results are “expected to increase mineral resource confidence and support future life of mine planning”.
• Among the intersections of the Blanket 7 structure highlighted in today’s announcement are:
  • A 13.20m wide intersection (13.02m true width) averaging 9.24g/t gold at a depth of 1,045.3m below surface in hole ARS1110EX2401; and
  • A 41.32m wide intersection (40.42m true width) averaging 3.14g/t gold at a depth of 1,075m below surface in hole ARS1110EX2402; and
  • A 48.00m wide intersection (46.28m true width) averaging 4.25g/t gold at a depth of 1,082m below surface in hole ARS1110EX2403; and
  • A 20.70m wide intersection (20.50m true width) averaging 3.98g/t gold at a depth of 1,054.1m below surface in hole ARS1110EX2404; and
• Highlighted intersections of other mineralised structures include:
  • A 4.10m intersection (3.65m true width) of the Blanket Quartz Reef Hanging Wall North structure at an average grade of 7.74g/t gold at 1,099.3m below surface in hole ARS1110EX2503; and
  • A 7.80m intersection (7.17m true width) of the Blanket Quartz Reef structure at an average grade of 7.15g/t gold at 1,099.3m below surface in hole ARS1110EX2412; and
  • A 10.80m true width intersection of the Eroica North Hanging Wall structure at an average grade of 6.54g/t gold at 994.3m below surface in hole ARS1110EX2404; and
  • A 2.20m wide intersection (1.98m true width) of the Lima Main structure at an average grade of 15.33g/t gold from 708.5m below surface.
• “The deep drilling results are expected to be incorporated into an updated mineral resource and mineral reserve statement during 2026”.
• CEO, Mark Learmonth, said the results “reinforce the geological strength of Blanket Mine and demonstrate the continuity of mineralisation at depth across multiple orebodies”.
• He also said that “The consistency of grades and widths we are seeing, together with confirmation of the Lima orebody to 34 level, provides growing confidence in the scale and quality of the mineral resource below the current lowest levels of the mine”.

Conclusion: Deep drilling at the Blanket mine is demonstrating depth continuity of the known mineralised structures as well as confirming the recently identified Blanket 7 structure at depth and is expected to contribute to an updated mineral resource estimate later this year.

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

DPM Metals (DPM CN) C$52, Mkt Cap C$11.5bn – 2025 annual report

• DPM Metals released their annual report yesterday.
• The Company produced 245koz Au and 14kt Cu at AISC of $1,121/oz.
• The Company reports free cash flow of $505m, with $498m of net cash and no debt as of 31^st December 2025.
• $146m returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
• DPM expects to hit full production at Vares by the end of 2026.
• 2026 guidance of 305-365koz AuEq, rising to 355-400koz AuEq in 2027 at AISC of $1,300-1,450/oz and $1,350-1,500/oz AuEq respectively.

Core Lithium (CXO AU) A$0.28, Mkt Cap A$811m – Open pit mining contract awarded with first concentrate targeted DecQ

• The Company updates on the progress of the Finnis Lithium Operation in Australia (NT) restart.
• The Company awarded a ~A$50m open pit mining contract at the Grants deposit.
• Mobilisation to start immediately with mining and ore production commencing in May 2026.
• Underground BP33 box cut and civil infrastructure works started.
• The mine plan includes access to ~784kt of ore within the existing open put and is expected to deliver approximately 134kt SC5 in production.
• First concentrate expected early in DecQ followed by a ramp up into CY27.

Kazera Global (KZG LN) 0.78p, Mkt Cap £7.7m – Board changes

• Kazera Global has announced a range of Board level appointments with the company’s largest shareholder, Richard Jennings, appointed to the Board as Interim Chief Executive Officer with the current incumbent, Dennis Edmonds, stepping down “with immediate effect”.
• Geoff Eyre is appointed non-Executive Chairman replacing Dr. John Wardle who “remains on the Board as a Non-Executive Director”.
• Other appointments include that of Paul Dulieu as an Independent non-executive director.
• Today’s announcement also announces the proposed appointment of Dr. Johan Hattingh as Technical Director in an executive role, subject to “standard regulatory due diligence”.
• Dr. Hattingh is described as “a South Africa based geologist with over 30 years’ experience in the mining and exploration sector, with particular expertise in heavy mineral sands, diamonds and alluvial systems”.
• He has a background in the South African Geological Survey and “has worked closely with the Company for several years and has an in-depth understanding of its projects, including responsibility for the preparation of the Mineral Resource Estimate relating to its current heavy mineral sands and diamond projects”.
• The incoming non-Executive Chairman said that the changes “mark an important step in repositioning the Company to accelerate the pace with which the Company’s strategic priorities are achieved”.
• Mr. Eyre also confirmed that “alongside these changes, we are evaluating potential operational partner options to support the optimisation of production and improvements in product quality and volumes at our heavy mineral sands projects”.

Marimaca Copper (MARI CN) C$8.57, Mkt Cap C$1.15bn – Silver assays show strong correlation to copper grades at Pampa Medina

• Marimaca reported silver assays from drilling at its Pampa Medina sulphide target in the Antofagasta regionin Chile.
• Management highlights high-grade silver mineralisation and its potential as a potential by-product credit.
• Highlights include:
  • SMRD-13: 26m at 4.07% Cu and 25.3g/t Ag from 580m (within a wider 100m at 1.28% Cu and 6.9g/t Ag
  • SMR-01: 102m at 1.2% Cu and 12.2g/t Ag from 250m (inc. 18m at 5.11% Cu and 53g/t Ag)
  • SMRD-16: 30m at 2.11% cu and 17.3g/t Ag from 434m (inc. 10m at 4.24% Cu and 38g/t Ag), 8m at 1.8% Cu and 10.8g/t Ag from 528m, 22m at 0.9% Cu and 6.5g/t Ag from 568m, 20m at 1.14% Cu and 3g/t Ag from 612m, 10m at 1.09% Cu and 1.2g/t Ag from 782m
  • SMRD-22: 134m at 1.06% Cu and 8.1g/t Ag from 102m (inc. 74m at 1.62% Cu and 11.9g/t Ag from 162m)
• Management notes elevated silver grades are ‘strongly correlated with copper grades across the known deposit area.’
• Going forward, Marimaca has now begun 300m x 150m delineation of the interpreted higher-grade zones, and is stepping out drilling to the west, north-west and north-east.
• Management is accelerating drilling from the current five rigs on site.

Robex Resources (RXR AU) A$6.77, Mkt Cap A$1.84bn – Kiniero produces 39koz in first quarter of steady state production

• Robex Resources provides first production quarter update from its recently commissioned Kiniero Gold Mine in Guinea.
• The mine milled 1.6mt of ore at 0.85g/t Au for 39.4koz.
• 32.3koz were sold at an average price of $4,804/oz.
• Nampala in Mali mined 0.5mt of ore at 0.7g/t Au for 10koz in 1Q26.
• Cash and bullion increased to $255m ($90m at year end).
• Kiniero is targeting a 5mtpa operation producing average head grade of 0.97g/t Au for average annual gold production of 139kozpa at $1,066/oz AISC.
• Robex’s merger with Predictive Discovery is awaiting regulatory and governmental consents.

TNR Gold (TNR CN) C$0.26, Mkt Cap C$55m – Altius takes 9.9% in private placement

• TNR Gold reports an agreed C$4.2m private placement with Altius Minerals.
• Altius will subsribe for 9.9% of TNR Gold on a pro-forma basis.
• Altius is subscribing at C$0.178/share.
• The Company will use the proceeds for ‘corporate development initiatives and for general corporate and working capital requirements.’
• The Agreement grants Altius a right of first offer on the sale of TNR’s 1.35% NSR on the Mariana Lithium Project and TNR’s 0.36% NSR royalty on the Los Azules Copper Project.
• Shares up 30% on the news.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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