SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 30th December 2025

Gold stabilises following precious metals profit-taking sell-off

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Sale of Eclipse Gold Asset

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – Gold Loan maturity extended

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) – Progress update as updated economics due February

Gold ($4,373/oz) stabilises following precious metals profit-taking sell-off

• Gold fell over 4% yesterday following Monday’s $4,639/oz amid a wider sell-off in precious metals after a sharp Christmas rally.
• Gold has recovered slightly from yesterday’s low of $4,331/oz, but remains up 3.4% over the past month.
• Silver sold off sharply after touching $83/oz, hitting $70/oz yesterday before recovering 5% this morning.
• Palladium has fallen 14% over the past week, touching highs of $2,100/oz in futures markets amid a speculative frenzy.
• The precious metals complex has stabilised following a low-liquidity rally which saw prices hit record highs.
• We expect a new consolidation period for gold as traders adjust to higher levels, with further central bank buying expected in 2026 and ETF inflows on a weaker dollar.
• Precious metals remain vulnerable to a rebound in the dollar, which weakened over 9% in 2025.
• However, the long-term trend of foreign reserve diversification in favour of gold vs US Treasuries remains in place as geopolitical tensions continue.

Geopolitical – gold prices ease on potential for Ukraine peace deal

• Ukraine tensions ease as Trump pushes Russia and Ukraine towards peace deal

• • Zelenski is asking for membership of the EU which may be unacceptable to Russia.
  • Unfortunately, we do not see Putin as sticking to Russia’s side of any deal which does not enable Russia’s takeover of more f Ukraine.

• Venezuela – US strikes drug boat loading facility in Venezuela

• • Trump ordered the CIA to conduct covert operations in the area in October.
  • The US is mounting an effective blockade of drug and oil shipping

• Taiwan – China just ran live-fire tests around Taiwan

• • Fortunately, President Xi still supports a peaceful takeover of the island.

Copper US$12,416/t settles as trade withdraws 5,100t from LME warehouses

• LME warehouses saw substantial withdrawal of copper and aluminium this morning.
• 5,100t of copper was withdrawn with a further 4,900t of cancelled warrants.
• 5,000t of aluminium was also withdrawn along with a similar 4,650t of cancelled aluminium warrants.

Lithium prices continue to post strong gains as China ramps up production for storage batteries

• The prices are great news for spodumene miners with demand for Lithium Carbonate dragging feedstock prices higher
• Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$16,510/t vs US$14,583/t
• China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,375/t vs US$1,240/t

Tungsten APT price rises in China to US$978/mtu 88.5% FOB vs US$958/mtu last week

• Demand is being driven by for tungsten carbide for machine tools for new vehicle models and defence
• Resource depletion at tungsten mines around the world combined with Chinese export controls are helping prices higher

Rare Earths – Japan to test recovery of REEs from deep sea mud

• Japan is preparing to test the recovery of manganese nodules from the deep-sea environment in January.
• The nodules in the deep off the island of Minamitori are seen as rich in manganese and rare earth elements
• Estimates suggest >230mt of manganese nodules are present grading around manganese: 19.5%, iron: 16.6%, nickel: 0.45%, cobalt: 0.37%, copper: 0.24%.
• We note, there are significant challenges related to the mining and lifting of product off the deep-sea bed.

 IG TV  Commodity Corner        (17/12/25):  

(09/12/25):  

Economics

US Fed – further US dollar weakness likely to support gold with Fed expected to cut rates in the new year

• Recent data points towards another one or two Fed rate cuts before the cycle ends.
• The Fed has been hugely cautious in its policy adjustments and the market sees no reason for this to change despite Trump comments

Japan Carry trade supporting gold as funds continue to borrow yen on prospects of ongoing yen weakness

• The BoJ expansionist policy and continuation of its move to buy government bonds is supporting long-term bond yields
• The situation looks likely to continue to weaken and encourage the carry trade.
• Hedge funds are able to short into the strength of the local Japanese equity and bond markets
• Gold prices will find some support from the carry trade but will likely fall on an unwinding of the yen carry trade

China – Chinese balance of accounts more balanced than trade balances suggest due to repayment of loans and profits to overseas investors

• The PBoC is managing the yuan into stronger territory with the yuan rising to CNY6.998/$ overnight vs 7.009/$ yesterday.
• The stronger yuan will help importers buy feedstock but will also serve to export inflation into the West.
• China is looking to achieve a “basic balance of international payments” which may be achieved via offsetting net exports against capital outflows.

Iran – collapse of currency which has lost 40% of its value since the 12-day war with Israel leads to protests

• Low oil prices combined with sanctions against Iranian oil exports
• Inflation rose over 40% in December has caused shops to close their doors
• Fortunately, the rise in the price of gold will support many Iranian families

Currencies

US$1.1768/eur vs 1.1774/eur previous. Yen 155.98/$ vs 156.28/$. SAr 16.667/$ vs 16.706/$. $1.351/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.671/aud vs 0.671/aud. CNY 6.998/$ vs 7.009/$

Dollar Index 98.03 vs 98.02 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,364/oz vs US$4,475/oz previous 

Gold ETFs 98.9moz vs 98.9moz previous 

Platinum US$2,167/oz vs US$2,281/oz previous 

Palladium US$1,672/oz vs US$1,709/oz previous 

Silver US$74.0/oz vs US$76.0/oz previous 

Rhodium US$8,350/oz vs US$8,350/oz previous 

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,416/t vs US$12,470/t previous 

Aluminium US$2,959/t vs US$2,968/t previous 

Nickel US$15,576/t vs US$15,920/t previous 

Zinc US$3,119/t vs US$3,110/t previous 

Lead US$2,019/t vs US$2,012/t previous 

Tin US$42,895/t vs US$42,855/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$61.3/bbl vs US$61.3/bbl previous 

Natural Gas €28.4/MWh vs €28.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $81.4/lb vs $81.4/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.4/t vs US$104.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$460.8/t vs US$460.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$211.5/t vs US$212.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.5/t vs US$105.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$84,619/t vs US$83,944/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$16,510/t vs US$14,583/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,375/t vs US$1,240/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$978/mtu vs US$958/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$101/lb vs US$99/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$260/t vs US$260/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,120/t vs US$1,117/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$360.0/t vs US$360.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Company News:

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 37p, Mkt Cap £265m – Sale of Eclipse Gold Asset

• Empire Metals has sold its interest in the Eclipse ML gold asset.
• The purchaser will pay a consideration of A$750k on successful completion of due diligence.
• The due diligence period lasts three months, and the purchaser is set to conduct a small drill campaign.
• Empire continues to streamline its portfolio as it focuses on the Pitfield Titanium Project.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Empire Metals

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 0.6p, Mkt Cap £6m – Gold Loan maturity extended

• GoldStone, who operate the Akrokeri-Homase gold project in Ghana, provide an update.
• The Company has been negotiating the 2020 Gold Loan extension with Asian Investment Management Services.
• The Gold Loan was set to mature on 31^st December 2025.
• The Company and AIMS have agreed to extend the Gold Loan maturity date to 31^st December 2026.
• Additionally, the creditor has agreed to freeze interest payments on the loan for the six-month period to 30^th June 2026.
• Goldstone is focused on optimising the Homase mine to boost cash flows.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Goldstone Resources

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) 8p, Mkt Cap £67m – Progress update as updated economics due February

• Zanaga Iron Ore provides an update on their Zanaga Project development workstreams.
• The Company is currently optimising the project, and is set to report the results of their project value enhancement workstreams on 6^th January.
• Zanaga expects to report FEED results and an integrated project development plan in February 2026, alongside an update on logistics and infrastructure solutions.
• The February update will include an updated economic assessment including design outcomes for a DRI product.
• Zanaga is engaging with several strategic investors looking to develop the Project, and expects to receive initial offers in 1Q26.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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