SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 2nd December 2025

Tin extends gains on Indonesian supply crunch and sustained demand

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Big thanks to the Oxford Mining Club for organising drinks at the Waldorf Hilton Hotel last night

• Over 1,000 mining professionals filled the elegant ballroom of the Waldorf
• Funds raised will go to support students in Mining

East Star Resources (EST LN) – First cash from Endeavour and JV discussions for Verkhuba

Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) – Ramping up ex-West Africa exploration alongside near-mine resource additions

Firefly Metals (FFM AU) – A$140m equity raise to advance Green Bay Copper-Gold Project towards production

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) – Kangankunde MREC met testowrk

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) – Caldeira Environmental License update

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) – Drilling starts at Harts Range project, NT

Q2 Metals* (QTWO CN) – Infill drilling supports maiden MRE due 1Q26

Rome Resource (RMR LN) – Mobilisation underway for next phase of drilling in DRC

Tin ($39,161/t) extends gains on Indonesian supply crunch and sustained demand

• Tin continues to climb higher as supply remains constrained from Myanmar and Indonesia.
• Tin prices bottomed at c.$30,000/t in May and have been rallying through the end of the year.
• Man Maw in Myanmar remains suspended, limiting concentrate supply into Chinese refiners.
• Indonesia has seen supply crack downs from President Subiato, focused on illegal mining in Sumatra.
• Increased security risks from eastern DRC, where M23 remain active, is constraining artisanal tin supply.
• SMM reports solder enterprises are operating at lower levels, amid higher tin prices and weak margins.

Copper ($11,254/t) pushes higher as market books copper futures in preparation for physical tightness next year

• Copper prices extended its two- week run with the market starting to anticipate supply-side physical shortages next year.
• Grassberg remains offline. Kamoa-Kakula just downgraded production. El Tiente cut guidance and Teck’s QB2 expansion is being held up by tailings issues.
• The CSPT ‘China Smelter Purchasing Team’ agreed to reduce production 10% next year in an attempt to raise Treatment and Refining charge rates
• Codelco is reported to be asking for a premium of US$335/t over LME prices for 2026 annual contracts
• The Codelco premium for physical copper into Europe is $325/t in 2026 from $234/t last year.
• Arubis are offering a $315/t premium vs the historic average of $180-220/t.
• On the flip side, a Chinese broker is commenting on local demand weakening into the winter with copper premiums at four-month lows as near-term demand falls away.
• Remember, the Chinese government is now enforcing holiday time on manufacturers and workers alike as it works to stimulate domestic demand.
• Longer holidays, may lead to higher employment and or extended shutdowns, particularly over seasonal holidays such as the Lunar New Year.
• Buying activity is seen in January to May copper futures with the trade locking in prices ahead of any potential physical supply squeeze.

IG TV Commodity Corner (18/11/25):  

ii TV – Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

US – President Trump said he decided on the candidate to head the Fed taking over from Jerome Powell in May.

• He would not name his pick.
• Kevin Hassett, Trump’s chief economic adviser and a proponent of lower interest rates, is believed to be one of main runner ups.
• Hassett previously indicated he would be happy to head the central bank if selected.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet said that Trump could announce his nominee before the December 25 Christmas holiday.

China – Lower than expected PMI data released including both government and private sector data.

• Official numbers show both manufacturing and services sector in contraction in November.
• Manufacturing continued to contract for a 8th consecutive month.
• Private survey showed manufacturing contracted only marginally last month with overseas demand remaining strong.
• Export orders climbed at the fastest pace in eight month while domestic demand lagged.
• Official Manufacturing PMI (Nov / Oct / Est): 49.2 / 49.0 / 49.4
• Official Services PMI (Nov / Oct / Est): 49.5 / 50.1 / 50.0
• Official Composite PMI (Nov / Oct / Est): 49.7 / 50.0 / NA
• Private Manufacturing PMI (Nov / Oct / Est): 49.9 / 50.6 / 50.5

Japan – BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda sent the clearest hint yet of a potential rate rise this month.

• The Board “will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decision as appropriate”, Ueda said this morning.
• Markets are pricing in a 64% chance of a rate hike this month and ~90% no later than January.

Russia/Ukraine – US and Ukraine representatives had productive discussions regarding a framework for a peace deal but no final breakthroughs.

• US special envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet with President Putin tomorrow to discuss the currently available peace plan.

Currencies

US$1.1613/eur vs 1.1619/eur previous. Yen 155.89/$ vs 155.31/$. SAr 17.100/$ vs 17.073/$. $1.321/gbp vs $1.323/gbp. 0.656/aud vs         0.655/aud. CNY 7.071/$ vs 7.072/$.

Dollar Index 99.42 vs 99.34 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,217/oz vs US$4,253/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.7moz vs 97.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,660/oz vs US$1,695/oz previous

Palladium US$1,446/oz vs US$1,467/oz previous

Silver US$57.3/oz vs US$57.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,050/oz vs US$7,975/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,254/t vs US$11,219/t previous

Aluminium US$2,900/t vs US$2,878/t previous

Nickel US$14,925/t vs US$14,880/t previous

Zinc US$3,096/t vs US$3,072/t previous

Lead US$2,007/t vs US$1,977/t previous

Tin US$39,150/t vs US$38,915/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$63.2/bbl vs US$63.5/bbl previous

• US Henry Hub natural gas prices rose to their highest level in three years on weather forecasts for below-normal temperatures, with US feed stock now set to exceed 19bcf/d to the eight operational LNG export terminals in the USA.

Natural Gas €27.7/MWh vs €28.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.1/lb vs $76.1/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.8/t vs US$103.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$451.7/t vs US$451.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$202.0/t vs US$197.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.0/t vs US$110.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$50,035/t vs US$48,570/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$84,357/t vs US$80,105/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$13,081/t vs US$13,080/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,155/t vs US$1,155/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$748/mtu vs US$743/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$96/lb vs US$95/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.9/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$272/t vs US$272/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,110/t vs US$1,110/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

China EV makers hit record sales ahead of subsidy expiry

• November deliveries at several Chinese EV makers hit all-time highs as buyers rushed purchases ahead of subsidies ending in the New Year.
• Leapmotor sold 70,327 vehicles in November, slightly above its October total of 70,289, marking its seventh straight monthly sales record.
• Voyah delivered 20,005 cars in November, up 16.2% mom and its fourth consecutive month of record deliveries.
• Zeekr posted 63,902 deliveries in November, a 3.7% increase from October, setting a new monthly high.

EV giant BYD also saw a strong November, with a record month of sales ytd totalling 480,186, but down 5.25% yoy.

• The surge has been driven by the imminent phase-out of tax breaks and cash subsidies from 1st January, prompting a buying rush.
• Industry analysts and dealers warn that deliveries may drop sharply in early 2026 as demand fades once incentives vanish

Nvidia release open-source software for autonomous car development

• Nvidia has released a new open-source software, Alpamayo-R1, with the aim of speeding up the development of self-driving cars.
• The company say that Alpamayo-R1 uses a “vision-language-action” AI model in which the vehicle interprets sensor-generated visual data and describes what it sees in natural language, then decides on actions accordingly.
• Nvidia say that if, for example, the vehicle spots a bike path, it will announce that it sees the path before adjusting course, which should improving transparency in how the AI makes driving decisions.
• By open-sourcing the software, Nvidia hopes to foster wider industry collaboration and allow developers and researchers to inspect, standardise and improve autonomous-driving evaluation methods.

Company news

East Star Resources (EST LN) 2.9p, Mkt cap £13m – First cash from Endeavour and JV discussions for Verkhuba

• East Star provides an update on their strategic investment from Endeavour Mining.
• The Company has received £1.8m from Endeavour with £96.6k raised at £0.023/share and £1.71m in an unsecured convertible loan note at £0.023/share.
• Endeavour will hold 15% in East Star upon conversion of the convertible.
• Funds will be used to fund the Company’s exploration programme in Eastern Kazakhstan, alongside identifying new opportunities.
• Endeavour will appoint one director to East Star whilst it holds >10% of the Company.
• Endeavour has agreed to earn up to 80% in East Star, with $5m due within two years for 51%, an additional $20m for a 70% stake and the funding of a PFS for a further 10%.
• East Star is managing the initial exploration phase.
• East Star also announces it is in discussions with a potential JV partner at the Verkhuba Copper Deposit in Kazakhstan.
• Verkhuba holds an MRE of 20mt at 1.2% Cu, 1.5% Zn and 0.3% Zn.
• An updated MRE is due 2H25, with the project expected to be amenable to open pit and underground mining.

Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) 3,571p, Mkt cap £8.5bn – Ramping up ex-West Africa exploration alongside near-mine resource additions

• Endeavour has provided an update on their next five year plans for resource growth.
• The Company is targeting the discovery of 12-15moz of mineral resources between 2026-2030 at an average cost of $40/oz.
• Near-mine brownfield exploration aimed at expanding mine lives beyond the 10 year target, aimed at adding an additional 6-9moz.
• Greenfield exploration targets aimed at adding 6moz of additional resources, prioritised in West Africa.
• Endeavour is allocating $100m of annual exploration spend over the period.
• Endeavour breaks down their resource addition targets as follows:
  • Ity: 5.4moz in MRE, targeting 1-1.5moz
  • Houndé mine: 3.3moz in MRE, targeting 1.5-2moz
  • Sabodala-Massawa: 5.2moz MRE, targeting 1.5-2moz
  • Lafigué: 2.9moz MRE, targeting 1-1.5moz
  • Mana: 1.7moz MRE, targeting 0-0.5moz
  • Assafou: 4.6moz MRE, targeting 1-1.5moz
  • Greenfields: 3moz MRE, targeting 6moz additional
  • MRE represents Measured and Indicated category
• Endeavour’s greenfield exploration programme will target three gold provinces outside of West Africa: Central Asian Orogenic Belt, Guiana Shield and West Tethyan Metallogenic Belt.
• Management is targeting exploration regions with transparent legal frameworks, established mining sectors, and existing infrastructure.
• Endeavour considers a tier 1 deposit as holding at least 3moz, low production costs and >10 year LOM potential.
• Endeavour is targeting areas with minimal sub-surface exploration history.
• Endeavour will look to target the discovery of two to three potential tier 1 projects over 2026-2030.

Conclusion: Interesting to see Endeavour expanding their ex-West Africa exploration programme following their recent investment in East Star Resources. Company is looking to diversify their asset base outside of Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal. The Guiana Shield, West Tethyan Belt and the Central Asian Orogenic Belt represent underexplored, district-potential discovery opportunities. We would expect Endeavour to sign more JV deals, similar to that with East Star in Kazakhstan, as they look to establish large land packages in these regions. Endeavour has a strong exploration track record, having recently discovered the greenfield Assafou project (PFS: 329kozpa at AISC of $892/oz over 10 years), where a DFS is due 1Q26, first production due 2H28.

Firefly Metals (FFM AU) A$1.94, Mkt cap A$1.33bn – A$140m equity raise to advance Green Bay Copper-Gold Project towards production

• Firefly, who hold the Green Bay Copper-Gold Project, are raising A$140m via an equity placing.
• The Company will raise C$30m via a Canadian offering at C$1.56/share, and an Australian offering of A$101.5m.
• The net proceeds will be used to fund development and early works at Green Bay, which will unclude underground development and drilling platforms. (A$79m)
• Technical studies will also be completed to examine upscaled mine options, expected to deliver PEA/Scoping Study and DFS. (A$15m)
• Underground drilling will focus on infill and new discovery drilling. (A$66m)
• Regional exploration drilling will also be conducted. ($26m)
• G&A costs of A$60m also allocated.
• Firefly expects to hold a pro-forma cash balance of A$245m following the raise.
• Current Green Bay MRE stands at:
  • M&I: 50.4mt at 1.7% Cu, 0.3g/t Au and 3.1g/t Ag for 1.016mt CuEq
  • Inf: 29.3mt at 1.9% Cu, 0.6g/t Au, 5.1g/t Ag for 722kt CuEq.
• PEA is due 1H26.

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) A$0.37, Mkt Cap A$616m – Kangankunde MREC met testowrk

• The Company released metallurgical testwork results for the Kangankunde REE Project, Malawi.
• The testwork completed by the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO).
• The programme was testing potential MREC production from the Kangankunde monazite concentrate.
• Monazite concentrate showed good recoveries and very low radionuclides in MREC allowing for non-Class 7 logistics.
• Overall TREO recovery of 92% and NdPr recovery of 97% from concentrate to MREC.
• ~56% TREO MREC with NdPr 16% TREO produced.
• Thorium and uranium levels are very low at 0.10% Th and 0.003% U, corresponding to specific activities of ~4.1 Bq/g and ~0.3 Bq/g respectively.
• The concentrate is amenable to a conventional sulphuric acid bake, ambient-temperature water  leach, impurity removal and NaHCO₃ precipitation flowsheet using standard reagents and unit operations.
• ANSTO is now to look into further reducing acid consumption (currently 1.2-1.4t H2SO4) without significantly affecting recoveries.
• Additionally, ANSTO launched a study into a caustic bake processing (as opposed to acid bake) looking at recoveries, consumables consumption, product quality as an alternative downstream treatment route for potential offtakers.

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) A$0.15, A$370m – Caldeira Environmental License update

• The Company updates on the environmental permitting process at the Caldeira REE Project, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
• The vote on the Preliminary Environmental License is getting postponed.
• The delay is attributed to the State Foundation for Environmental (FEAM) requesting more time to respond to questions from the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office (MPF).
• The Company reports that all necessary information to address MPF questions have already been prepared and submitted.
• The team to work with FEAM to address MPF enquiries with the Environmental License vote expected at the next State Council for Environmental Policy meeting (COPAM) on 19 December 2025.
• Once secured, the Company to submit its Construction Licence with minimal impact on project timeline.
• Trading in shares resumed yesterday following a temporary suspension regarding preliminary environmental license application media speculation.
• The Caldeira REE Project is a PFS stage absorption ionic clay project hosting:
  • Mineral Reserves 103mt at 4,091ppm TREO (990ppm or 24% NdPr)
  • Mineral Resources 1,497mt at 2,359ppm TREO (500ppm or 21% NdPr, 526ppm or 22% MREO (NdPrTbDy)
• 2025 PFS guided for a US$443m capex and 6.0mtpa plant producing 24ktpa MREC (13.6kt TREO including 4.2kt NdPr oxide and 130t DyTb oxide).
  • NPV8 (post tax) and IRR (post tax) US$488m and 21% (consensus $86/kg NdPr)
  • NPV8 (post tax) and IRR (post tax) US$835m and 28% (DoD and MP deal floor price of $110/kg NdPr)

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 1.05p, Mkt Cap £17m – Drilling starts at Harts Range project, NT

• New Frontier Minerals confirms the start of its initial ~2,500m programme of reverse-circulation (RC) drilling at the Harts Range rare-earths project around 140km NE of Alice Springs.
• The planned programme of up to 46 holes will “test the depth extension of the heavy rare earth mineralisation … defined through regional geophysics, detailed geological mapping and surface geochemistry”.
• Particular emphasis of the drilling will be on the prevalence of “dysprosium and terbium – critical elements in high-performance permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced defence technologies”.
• Explaining that surface exploration over the last year had “already returned outstanding heavy rare earth and niobium grades at surface … [Chairman, Gerrard Hall said that the drilling] … is specifically designed to test the depth continuity of these mineralised systems and assess the scale of the high-grade HREE … [heavy rare earth element] … nature of the mineralisation identified to date”.
• Mr. Hall confirmed that the company expects “drilling will be completed before the end of the year, with assay results expected early in the new year”.

Conclusion: Drilling is underway at Harts Range to test the depth extension of surface rare-earths mineralisation.  Results are expected early in 2026.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

Q2 Metals* (QTWO CN) C$1.42, Mkt cap C$270m – Infill drilling supports maiden MRE due 1Q26

• Lithium spodumene explorer Q2 Metals reports assay results from their Cisco project in Quebec.
• The Company reports infill results from four drill holes.
• Assays include:
  • CS25-040: 12 intervals including 67m at 1.26% Li2O from 293m, 82m at 1.56% Li2O from 378m and 95.1m at 1.56% Li2O from 464m, ending in mineralisation at 642m
  • CS-25-041: 54m at 1.53% Li2O from 213m, 41m at 1.31% Li2O from 279m and 54m at 1.21% Li2O from 323m
  • CS-25-042: 16 sepearate intervals, including 33m at 1.56% Li2O, 27m at 1.53% Li2O, 26m at 1.47% Li2O, 32m at 1.14% Li2O and 26.1m at 1.13% Li2O
  • CS25-043: 16 intervals including 38m at 1.47% Li2O, 22m at 1.38% Li2o and 21m at 1.52% Li2O
• Q2 expects assays from a further 20 drill holes, including CS25-044 which ‘intercepted 457m of continuous spodumene pegmatite.’
• The Company has four rigs on site, focused on infill drilling to deliver an initial inferred resource in 1Q26.
• Cisco holds an Exploration Target of 214-329mt at 1-1.38% Li2O.
• 67 holes completed to date over 27,295m.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Q2 Metals

Rome Resource (RMR LN) 0.19p, Mkt Cap £13m – Mobilisation underway for next phase of drilling in DRC

• Rome Resources, which recently raised ~£2.1m to fund further drilling at its Bisie North exploration project in DRC reports that mobilisation of the personnel and equipment is underway.
• The new drilling aims to expand the initial ‘Inferred’ mineral resource estimate (MRE) of 3.16mt at an average grade of 1.45% copper, 0.19% tin, 2.72% zinc &14.3g/t silver at Mont Agoma plus an additional 0.33m inferred tonnes at an average grade of 1.36% tin at Kalayi at depth.
• It will test “Deeper tin zones beneath the main Mont Agoma polymetallic system, where modelling indicates tin grades are likely to strengthen with depth as copper declines … [which the announcement describes as] … consistent with regional analogues such as Alphamin’s Bisie mine”.
• The drilling will also test “a near-surface 23 metres tin intercept … identified post-MRE” at Mont Agoma for inclusion in a future MRE.
• At Kalayi, drilling will test high-grade tin mineralisation in shoots “where shallow historic intercepts suggest thicker, higher-grade zones may exist at depth, mirroring patterns seen at the neighbouring Bisie mine”.
• Chief Executive, Paul Barret, describe the new drilling as “strategically important … for Rome Resources … [with exploration] … focused on the deeper source of the tin”.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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