Copper prices drop post soft Chinese economic data and amid rising global borrowing costs
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Almonty Industries (ALM US) – Up to US$300m buyback programme
BHP (BHP LN) – Copper leads financial charge as it contributes more than 50% of EBITDA for the first time
Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE AU) – Retraction of original production targets replacing with Monte Alto only scenario
DPM Metals (DPM CN) – Commercial production declared at Vareš
Great Western Mining (GWMO LN) – Drilling starts at the Defender tungsten project in Nevada
Lithium Chile (LITH CV) – Canada flags national security concerns over the Argentum sale
Shuka Minerals (SKA LN) – Second drillhole into new mineralised zone at Kabwe
Talisman Metals (TLM LN) – Drilling plans for the Tirzzit project, Morocco
Copper ($14,139/t) – Copper spreads spike again before Wednesday’s LME expiry
- Copper fell 1.2% on Tuesday to $14,139/t from $14,306/t on Monday, against a record $14,527.50/t set in January.
- Buyers paid $75/t more for immediate copper than for later delivery, the widest gap since January.
- That squeezes short positions before Wednesday’s LME expiry.
- Metal keeps flowing into the US on bets Trump will tariff refined copper.
Freeport Indonesia – Extension of permit requested after 2041
- PTFI has applied to extend its Papua (Grasberg) mining permit, which expires in 2041, and says talks are at a technical stage.
- Freeport-McMoRan would hand 12% of PTFI to the government in 2041 at no cost, with no sale involved.
- It keeps 48.76% until 2041, then holds around 37% from 2042.
Lithium – India’s KABIL sees Argentine lithium production start in four to five years
- State-run KABIL expects to start extracting lithium in Argentina in four to five years, once feasibility work is done.
- It signed a Rs2bn exploration deal in 2024 covering five blocks in Argentina.
- KABIL is also weighing seven more greenfield brine blocks offered by Catamarca.
- It says a lack of expertise in lithium brine as one factor behind the delays.
Uranium – NexGen in regular talks with BHP over Rook I (Reuters)
- NexGen CEO Leigh Curyer says the company is talking regularly with BHP about its Rook I project in Saskatchewan.
- Curyer noted BHP has bought a large land package next to Rook I in the Athabasca basin.
- NexGen plans to raise $1bn over the next nine months to fund project development.
- Options under review are prepayment deals with utilities, debt finance and direct equity in the project.
Indonesia – Planned minerals exchange to be named Icomex
- Indonesia plans a minerals and strategic commodities exchange from 1 January 2027, under financial regulator OJK.
- State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi said it will be called Indonesia Commodity Exchange, or Icomex.
- The existing Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange may be merged into it.
- The rules, the pricing mechanism and the commodity list are still being prepared.
- Likely candidates are the country’s main exports, including palm oil, nickel and coal.
- Authorities are aiming to setup an Indonesia Reference Price with export prices driven by domestic pricing.
Coal mine gas explosion in China: https://www.itv.com/news/2026-05-23/at-least-82-killed-in-coal-mine-gas-explosion-in-china-local-media-reports
Guardian Metal Resources – Tungsten & Pilot Mountain mine : https://invest.investorshub.com/innovationreport/
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.51% | at | 53,460 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -2.54% | at | 67,461 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.14% | at | 25,488 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.15% | at | 3,989 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.4 | at | 4.74 |
Currencies
US$1.1574/eur vs 1.1599/eur previous. Yen 159.70/$ vs 158.88/$. SAr 16.238/$ vs 16.144/$. $1.353/gbp vs $1.356/gbp. 0.710/aud vs 0.712/aud. CNY 6.743/$ vs 6.739/$.
Dollar Index 99.67 vs 99.41 previous.
Economics
US – President Trump said the US would bomb Oman if it “gets in the way”.
- Brent climbed to trade over US$90/bbl.
- Earlier, Tehran said it reached an agreement with Oman over a plan for ships to transit through the Strait of Hormuz with both sides now finalising details.
- The 60-day deadline for the US and Iran to reach a deal to end the conflict has now passed.
- President Trump reiterated that the priority is to deter Iran from having a nuclear weapon.
Equity futures are trading lower as US/Iran deal deadline passed and investors’ concerns over rising borrowing costs.
- Long dated yields (30y) hit over 5.3%, the highest level since 2007.
- Both S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.5% and 1.1% this morning.
China – Weak economic data released yesterday put YE GDP targets (4.5-5.0%) under risk.
- Weakness reported across the board including private spending, business investment, industrial production, and property market.
- Retail Sales (%yoy, Jul / Jun / Est): 0.6 / 1.0 / 1.5
- Industrial Production (%yoy, Jul / Jun / Est): 4.5 / 5.3 / 5.0
- FAI (%YTD, Jul / Jun / Est): -6.7 / -5.7 / -6.2
- Property Investment (%YTD, Jul / Jun / Est): -19.2 / -18.0 / -18.9
- Residential Property Sales (%YTD, Jul / Jun / Est): -13.2 / -13.7 / NA
- New Home Prices (%mom, Jul / Jun / Est): -0.18 / -0.15 / NA
- Used Home Prices (%mom, Jul / Jun / Est): -0.29 / -0.32 / NA
Germany – Surprisingly, investor sentiment picked more than expected in August.
- Meanwhile, 30y yields hit the highest level since 2011.
- Debt maturing in August 2056 is being sold (~€3.5bn) at just over 3.8%.
- The nation is expected to step up borrowing next year (€163bn net, up on €137bn 2026) reflecting both inflation as well as high defense and infrastructure spending.
- ZEW Survey Current Situation (Aug / Jul / Est): -61.1 / -77.6 / -69.3
- ZEW Survey Expectations (Aug / Jul / Est): 31.4 / 23.4 / NA
UK – Payrolls dropped more than expected in July with unemployment rate seen ticking 0.1pp higher to 4.9% in three months to June.
- Job vacancies, an indicator of labour demand, hit a fresh five year low of 707k in July.
- Uncertainty is being driven by rising energy costs on the Iran/US war as well the first budget under new PM Burnham due later this year.
- Bets on the BOE raising rates by the end of the year were little changed.
- Payrolls (Jul / Jun / Est): -13k / -13k (revised from -4k) / 0k
- Unemployment Rate (Jun / May / Est): 4.9 / 4.9 / 4.8
- Av Weekly Earnings (%yoy, Jun / May / Est): 4.1 / 4.4 (revised from 4.3) / 4.0
- Av Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (%yoy, Jun / May / Est): 3.5 / 3.4 / 3.4
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,400/oz vs US$4,398/oz previous
Gold ETFs 97.4moz vs 97.4moz previous
Platinum US$1,765/oz vs US$1,762/oz previous
Palladium US$1,330/oz vs US$1,337/oz previous
Silver US$65.3/oz vs US$65.7/oz previous
Silver ETFs 797.0moz vs 798.1moz previous
Rhodium US$8,800/oz vs US$8,800/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,139/t vs US$14,306/t previous
Aluminium US$3,263/t vs US$3,254/t previous
Nickel US$16,880/t vs US$16,855/t previous
Zinc US$3,744/t vs US$3,758/t previous
Lead US$1,890/t vs US$1,904/t previous
Tin US$55,695/t vs US$56,375/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$91.5/bbl vs US$88.4/bbl previous
- Energy prices edged higher following expiry of the 60-day MOU between the US and Iran, as President Trump said he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal.
Natural Gas €62.5/MWh vs €62.2/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $87.8/lb vs $87.5/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$96.3/t vs US$95.5/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$462.5/t vs US$462.9/t
HCC FOB Australia US$223.8/t vs US$225.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$133.8/t vs US$133.5/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$107,079/t vs US$107,134/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$21,282/t vs US$20,997/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,185/t vs US$2,185/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,040/t vs US$1,040/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,795/mtu vs US$1,795/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$3,125/mtu vs US$3,125/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$225/lb vs US$225/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vs US$390/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$25.3/kg vs US$25.3/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$204/t vs US$204/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,789/t vs US$2,789/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,164/t vs US$1,165/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$385.0/t vs US$385.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,195.0/kg vs US$4,195.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$440.0/kg vs US$430.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
Chinese automaker exports surging, but overseas sales slower than expected
- China’s passenger-car exports surged 72.5% yoy to about 5.4m vehicles in the first seven months of the year, raising hopes the full-year figure will hit a new high of 10m.
- However, industry sources are pointing out that exports alone don’t equate to genuine market penetration without direct consumer sales infrastructure.
- Chinese automakers initially favoured the general distributor model, granting local dealers exclusive rights in exchange for market access, but repeatedly clashed with distributors over growth priorities, with Chinese carmakers pushing sales volume while distributors were focused on their own margins.
- BYD’s 2022 general distributor deal with Sweden’s Hedin Electric Mobility for Germany and Sweden broke down within two years, forcing BYD to acquire Hedin’s German subsidiary in July 2024 and take over its Swedish operations a year later.
- Great Wall Motor’s 2022 partnership with Emil Frey AG for its Ora and Wey brands in Germany was similarly plagued by disputes, at one point leaving imported vehicles stranded at ports.
- Chinese carmakers have increasingly shifted toward establishing local sales entities to build dealership networks, though ECAIA board member Wang Han said the model clashes culturally with European dealers, who rely heavily on corporate bulk sales (60% of new-car sales in Europe) and full life-cycle vehicle services that Chinese automakers typically leave to third parties.
- European dealers have also resisted pressure from some Chinese automakers to stockpile inventory and register new cars immediately using straw buyers
- A report linked to BYD, found roughly 40% of BYD’s registered German vehicles were later exported, deregistered, or held in storage as pseudo-used cars.
- Wang said Chinese automakers ultimately need to build long-term operational capability spanning channel management, spare parts, certified used-car programmes, and residual-value management, not just a network to move new cars.
Company news:
Almonty Industries (ALM US) US$16.4, Mkt Cap US$4.7bn – Up to US$300m buyback programme
- The Company launched an up to US$300m buyback programme.
- The programme will include acquiring up to 14.4m shares for up to US$300m over a period of 36 months between 24 August 2026 and 2029.
- “The Board authorized this program because we do not believe today’s share price reflects the underlying value of this Company or the assets behind it,” CEO and Chairman Lewis Black commented.
- “With Sangdong advancing toward fu l capacity, we believe our own shares are one of the most attractive investments available to us at current market pricing, and repurchasing them is a direct way to build value for the shareholders who own this business alongside us.”
- The Company issued US$800m in convertible loan notes earlier in June (2.25%, US$27.4 conversion price, July 1 2031 maturity).
- Proceeds were reported to be directed towards a capped call (US$89m) to reduce potential dilution as well as development capital, potential corporate transactions and general working capital.
- ALM climbed 8% on the news yesterday.
BHP (BHP LN) 3,249p, Mkt Cap £165bn – Copper leads financial charge as it contributes more than 50% of EBITDA for the first time
- BHP reports financial results for the year to 30th June which saw record production of Western Australian iron ore and the second consecutive year of around 2mt of copper output “and a stronger result in coal”.
- Attributable profit rose by 9% to US$9.8bn (FY 2025 – US$9.0bn) with underlying EBITDA increasing by 27% to US$32.9bn and (FY 2025 – US$26.0bn) and copper contributing “more than half our Underlying EBITDA … for the first time”.
- Year end net debt reduced by 33% to US$8.7bn (June 2025 – US$12.9bn.
- The company has declared “a final dividend of 99 US cents per share, the largest in four years” and bringing the full year payout to US$1.72/share (FT 2525 – US$1.10/share).
- Copper’s US$18.9bn EBITDA contribution represents 57% of the total (FY 2025 – US$12.7bn or 49% of the total).
- The financial performance of the copper operations benefitted from robust copper prices, which were “on average were 26% higher in FY26” enhanced by “strong contributions from by-products … with 571 koz of gold, 17.9 Moz of silver and 3.6 kt of uranium production across the portfolio in FY26, delivering total by-product revenue of US$4.5 bn… up 45% from FY25”.
- Commenting on the copper operations CEO, Brendon Craig, said that they are “driving BHP’s growth … [and that their] … significant free cash flow … means our copper growth is self-funding”.
- Mr. Craig described “a well-defined project pipeline across Chile, Australia and Argentina that can potentially lift copper production by around 40% by FY35”.
- BHP’s WA iron ore operations delivered US$14.7bn (~45% of the total) compared to an FY 2025 contribution of US$14.4bn (55% of the total).
- Mr. Craig highlighted the announcement of “a new mine … [at Ministers North] … in the Pilbara … [which he said} … will help sustain WAIO production above 305 Mtpa and further strengthen one of the most competitive businesses in the global mining industry”.
- The company comments that demand “for our commodities remained resilient in FY26, despite the Middle East conflict” and notes that following “a strong start to CY26, China’s economic growth moderated over recent months owing to weak domestic demand”.
- BHP also says that “India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, although activity is likely to moderate from the strong pace seen earlier in the year as higher energy costs and weather-related disruptions weigh on momentum”.
- “Europe faces a more challenging near-term environment, but investment in energy security, defence and industrial resilience is providing some support to the economy”.
- Mr. Craig said that “Beyond copper and iron ore, Stage 1 of our Jansen potash project in Canada is 84% complete and on track for first production in mid-CY27. Jansen is expected to operate for more than 60 years and establishes BHP in a new commodity that is essential to food security”.
Conclusion: Copper operations lead a 27% rise in EBITDA as the company’s copper project pipeline targets a 40% rise in production by FY35.
Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE AU) A$4.3, Mkt Cap A$1.3bn – Retraction of original production targets replacing with Monte Alto only scenario
- The Company retracts the Scoping Study announcement from last week replacing it with a new target for the Rocha da Rocha Project, Brazil.
- The previous Scoping Study used Sulista feed in later years of operation (Years 9-14) that relied too much on Inferred Resources.
- The Company revises project production targets and financial highlights based on a standalone Integrated Monte Alto + Camacari Case (ex Sulista).
- Updated economic highlights include:
- LOM 9y (down from 14y)
- Mining inventory 3.6mt with Indicated covering 75% (down from 13.4mt)
- Average annual production – 5,661tpa NdPr oxide, 2,233tpa HRE+ con (5,276tpa and 2,253tpa before)
- Development capex US$969m (unchanged)
- Opex ~US$21/kg (unchanged)
- After-tax NPV8 and IRR US$6.0bn and 90% (US$7.9bn and 89%)
- The Company is advancing infill drilling at Sulista with a view to release an updated MRE with more in the Indicated category.
- That should allow the Company to include Sulista feed into the study in future updates.
- Sulista MRE update is targeted for late 2026.
- BRE is down 9% this morning.
DPM Metals (DPM CN) C$63.5, Mkt Cap C$13.9bn – Commercial production declared at Vareš
- Canadian gold miner DPM has declared commercial production at Vareš in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- The declaration takes effect from 10 August, ahead of schedule.
- Ramp-up:
- Throughput and recoveries held above 60% of design for 30 consecutive days.
- Daily throughput averaged 72% of design capacity over the period.
- The plant is due to reach its full rate of 850,000tpa by the end of 2026.
- Guidance:
- DPM now expects Vareš output in 2026 at the higher end of its 105-130koz AuEq guidance range.
- The upgrade follows first half results and continued performance since.
- David Rae, President and CEO of DPM Metals, said the team focused on ‘transferring our proven operating practices’ at Vareš from day one.
Great Western Mining (GWMO LN) 3.65p, Mkt Cap £14.9m – Drilling starts at the Defender tungsten project in Nevada
- Great Western Mining started its previously announced resource drilling at its Defender tungsten exploration project in Nevada yesterday.
- The drilling aims to test “an initial 600-1,000 metre corridor encompassing the Pine Crow, Dough God and Defender tungsten mines” as the company works to “deliver a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”) by the end of 2026”.
- The planned drilling is for “a minimum 7,000 feet (2,135 metre) … programme”.
- Additional work to advance the project includes metallurgical results from a 750kg bulk sample, taken during Q2, which are expected later this month.
- Great Western Mining confirms that the 2026 exploration programme is “fully funded”.
Lithium Chile (LITH CV) C$0.43, Mkt Cap C$96.03m – Canada flags national security concerns over the Argentum sale
- Lithium Chile and China Union received a notice under the Investment Canada Act on the sale of Argentum Lithium.
- The Director of Investments has reasonable grounds to believe the deal could harm national security, and a formal review order may follow.
- The sale covers all outstanding shares of Argentum, and was announced on 22 December 2025.
- Lithium Chile reports:
- The Company wrote to Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada on 7 January 2026, arguing Argentum is not a Canadian company.
- Argentum holds no Canadian assets and has no employees or place of business in Canada.
- No reply was received before the notice was issued.
- The Company says a foreign asset sale falls outside the department’s jurisdiction, and will seek all remedies available.
- Lithium Chile holds 29,245 hectares on the Salar de Arizaro in Argentina, with a resource report, PEA and prefeasibility study complete.
- Arizaro is a brine project planning to use direct lithium extraction rather than evaporation ponds.
- The Arizaro Project hosts ~2.5mt LCE (@297mg/L) in M&I resource and additional ~1.6mt LCE (@362mg/L) in Inferred.
- 2024 PFS envisaged a 25ktpa LCE over 20y LOM operation , including US$1.1bn development capex, ~US$5,500/LCE opex, After-tax NPV8 and IRR US$2.8bn and 36% (@ ~US$30,500/LCE price)
- The stock closed 14% down yesterday.
Shuka Minerals (SKA LN) 3p, Mkt Cap £4.2m – Second drillhole into new mineralised zone at Kabwe
- Shuka Minerals reports the completion of its tenth drillhole at the former Anglo American Kabwe zinc mine in central Zambia.
- Hole KBDD-10 was the second hole drilled in the newly identified area“south of the previously unmined “Speaks” and “Mine Club” zones … [where the previous hole, KBDD-09 intersected a] … previously unknown, near surface, orebody”.
- The 91.2m deep hole KBDD-10 is “the second of three exploratory drill holes … as the Company seeks to further understand the dimensions of this new ore body”.
- Assay results “will be verified in due course with JORC/NI 43 101 laboratory analysis and testing” but readings using portable X-ray (pXRF) readings show mineralisation in “a basal zone of 2.20m … from 59.3 to 61.5m … and an intermediate section from 41.6 to 51.3m”.
- CEO, Richard Lloyd explained that although Shuka Minerals has only drilled two holes into this zone so far they were drilled “at very different azimuths in order to fully understand its characteristics, but it seems this ore body is more pipe like in geometry”.
- He said that the “holes continue to provide encouraging and valuable new insight into the broader Kabwe orebody, suggesting it is also materially larger than was first modelled”.
Conclusion: Two drillholes drilled into untested areas south of the ‘Speaks’ and ‘Mine Club’ zones at Kabwe have intersected previously undetected mineralisation. A further hole is planned for the initial testing of this zone.
Talisman Metals (TLM LN) 6p, Mkt Cap £3.7m – Drilling plans for the Tirzzit project, Morocco
- Following its channel sampling at its Tirzzit copper/silver project in Morocco, announced in May, Talisman Metals reports that it will start a 3,000m reverse-circulation (RC) drilling programme in early September.
- The programme is expected to take around six weeks and aims “to establish mineralisation data points along the entire basal series … [of] … sediment-hosted stratiform Cu-Ag” mineralisation.
- In addition, “a portion of the drill programme will be dedicated to aggressive step outs along the projected strike horizon”.
- Today’s announcement says that “Historic drilling results, as reported by Moroccan Government … between 1972 and 1976 (“BRPM Reports”), include drill intersections of 3.16% Cu over 2.5m and 0.60% Cu over 11.4m”.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 2.7% | -0.1% | Freeport-McMoRan | 2.8% | -3.0% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.6% | -6.9% | Vale | 0.9% | -7.7% |
| Glencore | 0.0% | -3.6% | Newmont Mining | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| Anglo American | 0.0% | -2.3% | Fortescue | -0.4% | -1.9% |
| Antofagasta | 0.0% | -10.2% | Teck Resources | 2.1% | -3.5% |
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
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No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
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No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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