Copper edges higher amid a rebound in tech names
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Allied Gold (AAUC CN) – First gold pour at Kurmuk
Lindian Resources (LIN AU) – 30ktpa binding offtake ahead of first concentrate in December
Mkango Magnetic Materials* (MKA LN) SUSPENDED – First major equipment delivery at HyProMag USA in Texas
Pensana (PRE LN) – £2m equity raise as completion of the next Cascade tranche gets extended
URU Metals* (URU LN) – Diamond drilling starts at Zeb, aiming at a maiden Zone 2 resource
Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) – Second drill rig mobilised to speed up the 28-well Lionheart programme
Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) – RAM deal unlikely to close by November deadline with strategic review launched
Copper (US$13,856/t) – edges up as tech rebounds while China’s squeeze pushes premiums to a record
- Copper for immediate delivery costs $175/t more than three-month metal, a backwardation that points to tight nearterm supply.
- The Yangshan import premium rose to a record $230/t on Monday (SMM).
- SHFE warehouses held just 33,848t of copper on Friday, less than China consumes in a day (The Copper Journal).
- Copper concentrate imports fell 11% yoy in October to 2.17mt, with smelters squeezed by deep negative treatment charges and falling sulphuric acid prices.
- Smelters say production cuts are on the way.
Gold (US$4,117/oz) – holds above $4,100 as rate-hike bets offset the fall in oil
- Trump has softened on Iran since the midterms, admitting the war helped cause his party’s defeat.
- Brent fell >$7/bbl after Monday’s close, its lowest since late August.
- Fed presidents Barkin and Goolsbee pointed to a strong economy and inflation pressure on Monday.
- Traders put a December rate rise at 84%, with US CPI due today.
Singapore opens a 500t vault as central banks look for new places to store gold
- Central banks have kept buying gold, and some countries have moved their reserves away from traditional storage hubs.
- Singapore has opened its national currency vault to foreign central banks and official institutions, with room for up to 500t (MAS).
- Hong Kong is chasing the same business, having started trialling its own clearing system in July.
Nickel – Eramet looks to sell most of its minority stake in Weda Bay Nickel
- Eramet says several investors are interested in most of its minority stake in PT Weda Bay Nickel.
- The company expects to complete the sale by the end of this year, to repair its balance sheet.
- Eramet is also finalising a ~€500m capital increase, board-approved for H2 2026.
- Tsingshan operates Weda Bay with 51.2%, Antam holds 10%, and Eramet ~38%.
- Danantara, Indonesia’s sovereign fund, was reported in April to be in talks over the stake, with Eramet confirming talks in June.
China – October customs data show weaker bulks
- Iron ore imports fell 5.1% to a five-month low, with stockpiles rising and prices falling.
- Steel exports dropped to <10mt for the first time since April.
- Aluminium exports fell to <600,000t for the first time since March, though they remain strong against last year.
- Coal imports fell 5.5% to <40mt for the first time since May, on production controls in Indonesia.
- Crude imports rose to a seven-month high of ~42mt, led by Iraqi cargoes, but were still 13% lower on the year.
Canada – Extends tariff relief to mining inputs until mid-2028
- Canada has extended its waiver of counter-tariffs on US goods by a year, to 30 June 2028.
- The waiver now covers non-steel goods used in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction.
- It is being removed from December and February for certain goods Canada already produces, including trailers and aluminium wire.
Guinea’s Simandou to reach full 120mt iron ore capacity across all blocks at end-2027 (CTG)
- The project is running at ~6mt a month, or ~72mtpa against the 120mt target.
- Port Phase 2 will be fully commissioned by end-March 2027, with Phase 1 already in service.
- Winning Consortium Simandou holds blocks 1 and 2, backed by Chinese groups including Baowu.
- Simfer, a Rio Tinto and Chinalco unit, holds blocks 3 and 4.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +2.15% | at | 52,390 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.87% | at | 60,460 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.44% | at | 24,557 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.08% | at | 3,664 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -1.8 | at | 4.86 |
Currencies
US$1.1239/eur vs 1.1144/eur previous. Yen 158.02/$ vs 158.23/$. SAr 16.359/$ vs 16.546/$. $1.345/gbp vs $1.335/gbp. 0.692/aud vs 0.686/aud. CNY 6.669/$ vs 6.673/$.
Dollar Index 101.57 vs 102.24 previous.
Economics
Brent sells off as Trump signals no new Iran strikes after Qatar talks
- Trump says further strikes on Iran “won’t be necessary” after meeting Qatar’s PM, the main mediator.
- The US remains “locked and loaded” but will hold the status quo of diplomacy.
- Crude fell nearly 2% to sub $91/bbl marking the lowest since August.
US – Inflation numbers are out later today with expectations for a softer headline reading for October.
- CPI MoM (Est / Sep): 0.3 / 0.6
- Core CPI MoM (Est / Sep): 0.2 / 0.3
China – Strong trade data released this morning with trade surplus coming in just over US$1tn
- High-tech exports rose 67%yoy, the fastest since early 2021.
- Shipments of chips ad computers up by triple digits accounting for ~40% of YTD export value growth.
- Export strength is broad-based in volume terms, spanning solar, EVs, batteries and robots.
- Imports climbed on the back of larger crude shipments.
- Exports YoY (Oct / Sep / Est): 35.2% / 36.3% / 36.3%
- Imports YoY (Oct / Sep / Est): 41.6% / 31.0% / 33.9%
China extends US tariff truce to January
- The agreement was due to expire on 10 November with the deadline now moved to 10 January.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,117/oz vs US$4,099/oz previous
Gold ETFs 100.9moz vs 100.9moz previous
Platinum US$1,568/oz vs US$1,539/oz previous
Palladium US$1,037/oz vs US$1,024/oz previous
Silver US$52.8/oz vs US$51.9/oz previous
Silver ETFs 814.6moz vs 815.8moz previous
Rhodium US$9,400/oz vs US$9,200/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,856/t vs US$13,768/t previous
Aluminium US$3,029/t vs US$3,063/t previous
Nickel US$16,160/t vs US$16,353/t previous
Zinc US$3,729/t vs US$3,711/t previous
Lead US$1,886/t vs US$1,886/t previous
Tin US$46,225/t vs US$46,467/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$90.9/bbl vs US$96.6/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices have fallen towards $90/bbl as diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict offset continued attacks on Saudi Arabia by the Houthis and Iran on marine vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz.
Natural Gas €82.7/MWh vs €87.3/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $91.2/lb vs $91.8/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$92.5/t vs US$92.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$479.8/t vs US$479.9/t
HCC FOB Australia US$260.0/t vs US$259.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$137.5/t vs US$140.8/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,525/t vs US$33,525/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$106,014/t vs US$106,691/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$13,271/t vs US$13,561/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,130/t vs US$1,240/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,045/t vs US$1,045/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,845/mtu vs US$1,835/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,725/mtu vs US$2,775/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$236/lb vs US$239/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$25.4/kg vs US$25.4/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$173/t vs US$176/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,917/t vs US$2,917/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,177/t vs US$1,176/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,625.0/kg vs US$4,605.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$460.0/kg vs US$460.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$34.0/lb vs US$33.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
CATL leans on battery swapping to push sodium-ion past its range limits
- CATL targets >3,000 passenger-car swapping stations across China by year-end and already has stations in ~200 cities.
- Sodium-ion is pitched as cheaper and safer, though it stores less energy and gives a shorter range.
- Chairman Robin Zeng sees swapping, which takes minutes, as the answer for drivers wanting to go further.
- CATL treats sodium-ion as a hedge against wild swings in lithium prices.
Company news:
Allied Gold (AAUC CN) C$33, Mkt Cap C$4.7bn – First gold pour at Kurmuk
- Allied pours first gold at the Kurmuk Gold Mine in Ethiopia.
- Commercial production is targeted by year-end and nameplate capacity in early 2027.
- The ramp up plan includes:
- Remaining power infrastructure and final fleet mobilisation expected to be completed later this month;
- Recoveries expected to progressively improve to design levels by early 2027.
- Kurmuk production targets:
- 2026: 25–35koz Au
- Q127: 55–65koz Au (~220–260kozpa annualised)
- 2027: 240–270koz Au
- 2028: ~300koz Au
- Kurmuk expected to run at ~300koz over the first four years and average ~200koz over LOM.
- The plan is prove up more near surface higher grade ounces through the drill bit to extend the ~300koz run rate beyond initial four years.
- FY26 group production expected at 400-435koz, weighed towards 4Q26.
- FY27 production targeted at 615-670koz.
Lindian Resources (LIN AU) A$0.45, Mkt Cap A$703m – 30ktpa binding offtake ahead of first concentrate in December
- Lindian signs a binding offtake for 30ktpa of monazite concentrate at the Kangankunde Rare Earth Project in Malawi.
- The unnamed party is described as a major global refining group that runs rare earth chloride and solvent extraction operations.
- The contract covers 10ktpa (over 1y period commencing January 2027) for Stage 1 and 20ktpa (over 5 years) for Stage 2.
- Market linked pricing (Asian Metal indices) across 10 REEs, with a payability rising with REO grade.
- 54% TREO average con grade (52% minimum).
- The offtake take Stage 1 production to full allocation and Stage 2 to 45ktpa including 25ktpa under Iluka’s right of first refusal.
- Kangankunde is nearing commissioning with first production targeted December 2026 and first container shipment form Nacala January 2027.
- Stock up 17% on ASX.
Mkango Magnetic Materials* (MKA LN) SUSPENDED – First major equipment delivery at HyProMag USA in Texas
- Mkango updates on the development progress at the US based magnet recycling JV, HyProMag USA (60/40 CoTec/MKA).
- HyProMag USA took delivery of the first major process equipment for its magnet recycling and manufacturing facility in Northlake, Texas.
- Power capacity has been secured from Oncor Electric.
- Permitting is progressing and contractor selection is under way.
- Detailed engineering and procurement continue.
- Development timelines reiterated:
- 1H27: magnet cutting and finishing
- Mid-2028: Phase 1 integrated recycling and manufacturing using HPMS tech
- FID remains outstanding.
- Phase 1 includes integrated recycling and magnet manufacturing stage running at ~1,034tpa NdFeB payable production (~550tpa sintered magnet blocks and finished magnets, ~484tpa co-products).
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Mkango Magnetic Materials
Pensana (PRE LN) 45p, Mkt Cap £187m – £2m equity raise as completion of the next Cascade tranche gets extended
- Pensana is raising £2m at 40p as finalisation of the Cascade Natural Resources investment gets postponed.
- The issue price implies a ~25% discount.
- Cascade was given an extension to finalise their next funding tranche as part of the US$165m overall commitment.
- No new deadline with Cascade commitments has been provided.
- Cascade has so far invested US$15m.
- The news follows the announcement earlier in October that Cascade is expected to cover a significant share of US$75-90m equity share of funding within 14 days.
URU Metals* (URU LN) 2.9p, Mkt Cap £4.3m – Diamond drilling starts at Zeb, aiming at a maiden Zone 2 resource
- URU Metals report that diamond drilling has started at the Zeb project in Limpopo Province, South Africa.
- Zeb hosts nickel-copper-PGE mineralisation and is held through URU’s subsidiary Lesego Platinum Uitloop.
- Programme:
- Eight planned holes totalling ~3,850m, focused on Zone 2 nickel-copper-PGE mineralisation.
- Paired holes from four drill pads will test the shallower and down-dip parts of the mineralised package.
- Hole positions come from the completed Leapfrog 3D model, which picked the higher-grade southeastern part of Zone 2 as the priority.
- Zone 2 is the higher-grade band of nickel, copper and platinum group metals, traced over 3.5km by earlier drilling.
- The aim is a NI 43-101 compliant maiden resource estimate for Zone 2.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to URU Metals
Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) A$1.22, Mkt Cap A$581m – Second drill rig mobilised to speed up the 28-well Lionheart programme
- Vulcan report the mobilisation of a second drill rig to Trappelberg, the fourth well site at the Lionheart Lithium Project (Germany).
- Rigs:
- The refurbished rig, V10, joins V20 at Schleidberg and is run by Vercana, Vulcan’s in-house drilling company.
- Vulcan has spent ~€51m (~A$82m) on the two rigs to control its own timelines and avoid third-party contractors.
- Lionheart:
- Seven production and re-injection wells are in place, against a targeted 28-well programme.
- The wells at Insheim and Landau are producing and underpin Vulcan’s existing geothermal energy activities.
- The project targets 24ktpa of lithium hydroxide monohydrate over a 30yr LOM.
- Co-products are 275GWh of renewable power and 560GWh of heat a year.
- Cris Moreno, CEO, says execution is progressing on time and on budget.
Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) 2.3p, Mkt Cap £24m – RAM deal unlikely to close by November deadline with strategic review launched
- Zanaga updates on the status of the Red Arc Minerals (RAM) funding for the Zanaga Iron Ore Project in Republic of Congo.
- The proposed investment is unlikely to complete by the extended 30 November deadline.
- Talks are reported to be continuing in good faith, although, Zanaga will now consider alternative financing options.
- The company will appoint a financial adviser to run a strategic review of all alternatives, including the RAM deal.
- February 2026 RAM investment binding terms included:
-
- Tranche One: RAM invests up to US$25m, in five equal sub-tranches, to fund the project to FID, in return for 20% of Jumelles, the project-holding subsidiary.
- Tranche Two: an option, exercisable within 18 months, to pay ZIOC US$125m cash for a further 67.5%, taking RAM to 87.5%.
- ZIOC would then retain a 1% net sales revenue royalty, half of which RAM can buy back for US$50m.
- RAM is backed by, among others, Sir Mick Davis and Heeney Capital.
- Zanaga holds a 6.9bn tonne resource and 2.1bn tonne reserve, with all key permits in place.
- The Company has a 100% interest via Jumelles after buying out Glencore in 2022.
- The stock is down ~25% this morning.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 1.1% | 6.1% | Freeport-McMoRan | 4.9% | -1.0% |
| Rio Tinto | 0.3% | 5.9% | Vale | 3.3% | 5.6% |
| Glencore | 0.4% | 2.6% | Newmont Mining | 3.5% | 14.7% |
| Anglo American | 0.6% | 5.4% | Fortescue | 0.5% | 6.7% |
| Antofagasta | 0.8% | 6.2% | Teck Resources | 7.0% | 3.1% |
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
No.1 for Precious Metals: Q1 2026
No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street
London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
DISCLAIMER
This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.
This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.
This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.
Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.
Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.
SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).
SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.
MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.
A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).
SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return
SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange
