SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Tuesday 10th March 2026

Copper jumps on easing oil prices as global markets rebound

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) – Khaleesi mineralisation draws parallels to Las Bambas and Antapaccay

Develop Global (DVP AU) – Woodlawn steady-state guided for March quarter

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) – Latest drilling results from Cerro Negro, Chile

Lundin Mining (LUN CN) – Boosting interest in Vicuna district with Caserones and Los Helados interests

Rome Resource (RMR LN) – Option to acquire a Canadian project

Toubani Resources (TRE AU) – FID for Kobada Gold Project

Copper ($13,128/t) jumps on easing oil prices as global markets rebound

• Copper prices joined the rally following Trump’s presser yesterday in which Trump stated ‘we can call it a success.’
• Copper had been weighed down by a global growth slowdown over concerns of sustained elevated oil and gas prices.
• Copper prices are also heavily influenced by financial flows currently, with traders and hedge funds using it to take positions on global growth outlooks.
• As a result, increased volatility in global markets likely saw funds delever copper positions and take profits to fund margin requirements elsewhere.
• Elsewhere, copper prices may be vulnerable to continued global inventory builds and sustained refining output from China.
• Global stocks have risen c.500kt since the start of the year, with Chinese end-user demand weak and showing some price sensitivity.
• The Yangshan copper premium has also fallen, having peaked last year, highlighting reduced import appetite.

Gold ($5,183/oz) rebounds alongside silver as risk-on returns on Trump deescalation and weaker US dollar

• Gold prices have risen 1% this morning, touching $5,195/oz.
• The move comes alongside a rebound in silver and PGMs, which sold off following the military operation in Iran
• Gold’s recent weakness was most likely a factor of profit-taking and wider market ‘degrossing’ in the wake of the military escalation, having rallied into the attacks.
• Precious metals are trading increasingly in-line with the wider risk-on asset base, with the Nasdaq and Bitcoin both rallying strongly on the back of Trump’s deescalation.
• Gold should be able to resume its rally amid the wider themes of de-dollarisation as BRIC countries continue to diversify their foreign reserves.

Laser systems likely to defeat low-cost kamikaze drones

• Israel Iron Beam, already in action in Israel.
• US military laser systems operational on destroyers for ‘soft kill’ sensor blinding and destroying drones, boats, and missiles.
• US laser systems run up to 150kW offering low-cost, near-limitless shots, and almost instantaneous engagement
• Laser systems will be added to Army mobile vehicles soon.
• UK Dragonfire LDEW ‘Laser directed-energy weapon’ system fires at a cost of ~£10 per shot
• The system will be installed on Royal Navy warships starting in 2027.
• Lasers sit well on ships due to their need for substantial electrical power which is easily diverted from diesel electric systems.
• REEs, primarily Ytterbium (Yb), Neodymium (Nd), Erbium (Er), Thulium (Tm), and Holmium (Ho) are all used in ultra-high-power fibre and solid-state lasers.
• The metals enable high-efficiency and high-intensity infrared light emission in the (1–2m range) for industrial and defense.
  • Ytterbium (Yb): enables high-power output without thermal issues which is common solid-state lasers.
  • Neodymium (Nd): Commonly used in solid-state lasers (e.g., Nd:YAG).
  • Erbium (Er): Crucial for fiber lasers and amplifiers.
  • Thulium (Tm): Utilized in 2m region lasers.
  • Holmium (Ho): Employed in specialized high-power laser systems.
• Key recommended stocks are: Mkango*, Harena*, Rainbow Rare Earths, Ionic.

*SP Angel act as Nomad / broker. SP analysts has visited process sites at Mkango, Rainbow and Ionic.

Interviews – IG TV Indaba interview: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

• Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/OEvjlwDdmQ8?si=Ej5UcV91750ErDPk
• VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed
• New commodities cycle: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

Currencies

US$1.1652/eur vs 1.1532/eur previous. Yen 157.46/$ vs 158.57/$. SAr 16.265/$ vs 16.883/$. $1.347/gbp vs $1.332/gbp. 0.710/aud vs 0.699/aud

CNY 6.874/$ vs 6.918/$. Dollar Index 98.59 vs 99.35 previous

• Dollar falls as Trump indicates quick end to the US military operation in Iran
• Euro continues to fall on deleveraging as investors look for tighter monetary policy from the ECB over the next few months

Economics

China – Extended Lunar New Year holiday helps trade data jump higher

• Exports jumped a massive 21.8% yoy way ahead of 7% forecasts for the first two months of 2026
• Imports also jumped 19.8% yoy again ahead of the 6% consensus.
• Exports to the US fell ~11% yoy
• Imports from the US collapsed ~27%
• Chinese trade is increasingly focussing on Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America and other emerging markets
• China’s politicians worked hard through 2025/26 to boost trade through a series of deals often involving Belt & Road infrastructure.
• China pays for much of this infrastructure, though much of the finance flows back into China through the, often exclusive, use of Chinese contractors. These deals look like they are effectively off the national balance sheet.
• China will need to work hard to maintain this momentum

Scenario analysis:

• Current regime agrees to peace negotiations with neighbours – 80%
  • US stops air strikes to enable negotiations – 95%
• IRGC takes control from the Ayatollahs – 10%
  • IRGC lose control due to decimation by air strikes – 10%
  • Population rises up and takes control from IRGC – 20%
  • IRGC may think twice about murdering protestors – 50%

• Mullahs go against IRGC – 20%
  • Mullahs are sometimes at odds with the ruling Ayatollahs
• Kurds overthrow the IRGC and form interim government – 10%. Trump says he doesn’t want this

• • Azeris and Baluchis join with Kurds in new alliance – seems unlikely just now

• Reza Pahlavi steps in as interim leader supported by the US – 1%

• • US will support almost anyone who can take power from fanatical hard-line Ayatollahs

• Neighbours: neighbouring states look to support rebellion in Iran – 50%

• • Neighbours send troops into Iran to stop missiles – 0.1%
• It’s not over till the fat Ayatollah swings

Precious metals:

Gold US$5,180/oz vs US$5,098/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.7moz vs 100.0moz previous

Platinum US$2,225/oz vs US$2,113/oz previous

Palladium US$1,703/oz vs US$1,595/oz previous

Silver US$89.0/oz vs US$83.6/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 820.7moz vs 823.8moz previous

Rhodium US$11,650/oz vs US$11,650/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,112/t vs US$12,768/t previous

Aluminium US$3,329/t vs US$3,417/t previous

Nickel US$17,525/t vs US$17,220/t previous

Zinc US$3,360/t vs US$3,336/t previous

Lead US$1,938/t vs US$1,935/t previous

Tin US$50,005/t vs US$48,005/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$90.6/bbl vs US$107.3/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices slumped after President Trump indicated that the conflict with Iran could end very soon and the G7 countries said the group was ready to release oil from their strategic reserves if necessary.
• Saudi Aramco reported FY25 production of 12.9mboe/d (83% oil) generating $136.2bn operating cash flow, $52.2bn capex and $85.4bn free cash flow to end with YE25 net debt of $18.3bn, with plans to increase the quarterly cash dividend by 3.5% q/q to $21.9bn (~5% annualised yield) and launch a share buyback of up to $3bn over 18 months.

Natural Gas €47.7/MWh vs €61.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.7/lb vs $85.7/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.8/t vs US$103.2/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.5/t vs US$462.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$223.0/t vs US$219.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$144.5/t vs US$137.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$123,654/t vs US$122,875/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,403/t vs US$22,045/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,185/t vs US$2,185/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,183/mtu vs US$2,123/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$201/lb vs US$196/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vs US$5.7/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.4/kg vs US$28.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$260/t vs US$258/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,142/t vs US$1,135/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,045.0/kg vs US$3,045.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

CATL post 42% profit jump in 2025 amid strong EV battery sales

• Global battery leader CATL posted a 42.3% jump in profit in 2025 as battery sales remained strong.
• Revenue from the power battery business reached RMB316.5 billion in 2025, a yoy increase of 25.1%.
• Revenue from the energy storage battery business reached RMB62.4 billion, marking an 9% yoy growth.
• CATL sold 661GWh of lithium-ion batteries in 2025, an almost 40% yoy increase, with 541GWh to power battery usage and 121GWh to energy storage.

Company News:

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) C$1.22, Mkt Cap C$153m – Khaleesi mineralisation draws parallels to Las Bambas and Antapaccay

• C3 Metals provides an update on the geology identified at the Khaleesi Copper Project in Peru.
• C3 has undertaken a geochronological programme to improve their understanding of the relationships between the intrusive phases, skarn alteration and copper & molybdenum identified at Khaleesi.
• Importantly, the study suggests that one of the Khaleesi hydrothermal events lies within the same time frame as the neighbouring Las Bambas and Antapaccay operations.
• Management highlights that major porphyryies in operation on the belt are between 40-30m years old, with age dating suggesting Khaleesi molybdenum mineralisation is c.35.8m years old.
• Diorite intrusives are notes to be acting as conduits enabling mineralisation to travel near surface.
• C3 Metals is currently undertaking a 25-30 hole programme over Khaleesi, with six holes pending assays and two holes currently in progress.

Conclusion: Encouraging geochronological results from Khaleesi suggest that the mineralising event at the project took place within the same period as major operations Las Bambas (MMG) and Antapaccay (Glencore). Drilling to date has identified copper mineralisation across all 12 holes drilled, however C3’s focus is on defining the geometry of the system to target higher-grade zones. C3 believes Khaleesi may host a large-scale skarn system alongside a potential causative porphyry system. We see C3 Metals as a top-class junior copper explorer led by an experienced management team with what is becoming a large-scale copper target in a tier one postcode. We also look forward to results from C3’s two exploration programmes in Jamaica.

Develop Global (DVP AU) A$4.8, Mkt Cap A$1.6bn – Woodlawn steady-state guided for March quarter

• Polymetallic producer Develop reports interim results.
• Company reports A$171m in revenue for the half year to 31^st December 2025.
• NPAT reported at A$2m, with net cash from operating activities reported at A$27m.
• Develop held A$180m in cash at the end of the year, with A$60m in liquidity.
• Company expects to deliver nameplate capacity from Woodlawn and steady-state production from the March 2026 quarter.
• Updated DFS for Sulfur Springs copper-zinc project returned a pre-tax NPV8 of A$921m and IRR of 59%.

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) 2.75p, Mkt Cap £17m – Latest drilling results from Cerro Negro, Chile

• Great Southern Copper’s latest drilling at the Cerro Negro prospect in the Especularita project area in Chile has extended the known ‘Lens 2’ mineralisation around 300m further south of the old Mostaza mine to ~400m.
• Hole CNG25-DD-042 “intersected multiple zones or lenses of base and precious metals mineralisation including”:
  • A 21.8m wide interval at an average grade of 1.04% copper and 52.26g/t silver from a depth of 73.0m.
• The wider interval includes higher-grade zones of 6.0m at an average grade of 2.56% copper and 128.16g/t silver from 79.0m and 1.6m grading 6.55% copper which itself contains 1.6m at a grade of 6.55% copper and 319.75g/t silver from 82.0m depth.
• The hole also intersected an “upper Pb-Zn-Ag rich silica breccia zone includes grades up to 22.4g/t Ag, 1.9% Pb and 0.34% Zn similar to the mineralisation identified in the hanging-wall to Lens 2”.
• The drilling has now shown the mineralisation over a total strike length of 400m with it remaining open further south.
• Great Southern Copper confirms that results are still awaited for the remaining diamond-drill holes and all of the reverse-circulation holes and that “Planning for fully funded Phase IV resource and exploration drilling is in progress”.
• The results from hole CNG25-DD-042 build on earlier drilling such as “hole CNG25-DD007 which intersected 33m @ 1.96% Cu and 60.6 g/t Ag from 87m” although today’s announcement also clarifies that “hole DD026 intersected multiple narrow (<1m) intervals or lenses with grades up to 1.98% Cu and 94.1g/t Ag¹, suggesting the mineralisation might be pinching out or is overprinted by complex shearing and faulting”.
• CEO, Sam Garrett, explained that the intersection of “mineralisation at this distance from the historic workings provides further evidence that the Mostaza Fault Zone hosts a much broader mineralised footprint than originally recognised and emphasises the significant exploration upside still to be tested”.
• He said that the Phase 4 drilling programme “will focus on in-fill drilling of Lens 2 between the Mostaza mine and the mineralisation intersected in holes DD07 and DD042, as well as additional step-out drilling aimed to extend the Lens 2 mineralisation trend further south along the Mostaza Fault Zone … [as well as] … continuing to test the broader potential of the Cerro Negro system”.
• Today’s announcement also explains that increased exploration activity in Chile during the southern hemisphere summer and encouraged by “rising metal prices” has extended the typical laboratory turnaround time for assay results to “over two months”.

Conclusion: The latest drilling at Cerro Negro shows mineralisation extending for around 400m south of the Mostaza mine and remaining ‘open’ further south. Planning for a fourth phase of drilling is underway.

Lundin Mining (LUN CN) C$35, Mkt Cap C$30bn – Boosting interest in Vicuna district with Caserones and Los Helados interests

• Lundin Mining reports it has acquired 5% of Lumina Copper which owns the Caserones mine from JX Advanced Metals, taking their ownership of the asset to 75%.
• Additionally, Lundin has acquired a 30.9% interest in the Los Helados Project and a 0.62% NSR from JX, with Lundin-backed NGEX holding the remaining 69.1%.
• The aggregate purchase price for the acquisition is $215m.
• The increased interest in Caserones boosts 2026 attributable copper production by 6.5-7kt Cu at cash costs of $2.05-2.25/lb.
• Los Helados holds:
  • Indicated MRE of 2.1bn at 0.4% Cu, 0.15g/t Au and 1.5g/t Ag for 8.3mt Cu, 10.2moz Au and 97.5moz Ag
  • Inferred MRE of 1.1bn at 0.34% Cu, 0.1g/t Au and 1.4g/t Ag for 3.7mt Cu, 3.6moz Au and 50.2moz Ag
• Los Helados lies 17km south from Lundin Mining’s Caserones mine within the wider Vicuna district.
• Lundin are exploring trucking or conveying mineralisation from Los Helados to offset lower grade mineralisation.
• Los Helados also lies 10km north of the Lundin Mining/BHP Vicuna Project.

Rome Resource (RMR LN) 0.29p, Mkt Cap £20m – Option to acquire a Canadian project

• Rome Resources, which is exploring the Bisie North project in the DRC, has announced plans for strategic diversification into a “mothballed legacy tungsten-molybdenum and tin-indium project in the southwestern part of New Brunswick”.
• The company has secured a C$300,000 option over the project for C$250,000 payable in share plus C$50,000 in cash payable over 4 years.
• The 109km² Canadian project area is located east of Mount Pleasant and consists of:
  • The 75.3km2 ‘Three Lakes’ area “of the Mount Douglas Granite, where numerous mineral showings principally for tin, tungsten and indium have been described”; and
  • The 33.8km2 ‘Scoullar Mountain’ area “directly east of the Mount Pleasant mine, along the southern margin of the tin-molybdenum-tungsten-indium bearing volcanic caldera and granite complex, where limited exploration has taken place to date”.
• CEO, Paul Barrett, explained that the project is in “a highly prospective region which exhibits strong tin and other critical metal mineralisation in a mining-friendly Tier 1 jurisdiction”
• He said that “The Three Lakes area is a late-phase tin granite-sourced prospect, similar to our Bisie North tin play in the DRC, but with additional tungsten, bismuth and indium potential”.
• Mr. Barrett also explained that “Planning of the work programme can take place while we await the assays from Bisie North which will feed into the updated mineral resource estimate for Kalayi, allowing for progress at both projects in parallel … [and that this] … allows us to maintain focus on our core project in DRC while positioning Rome for proposed long-term growth through diversification”.
• In our opinion, the company’s technical expertise provides an opportunity to advance the Canadian projects but running two projects in such different regions may provide logistical challenges.

Conclusion: Plan to acquire a Canadian project in a geologically comparable setting to the DRC tin projects may provide an opportunity to deploy technical expertise to a similar project.

Toubani Resources (TRE AU) A$0.45, Mkt Cap A$336m – FID for Kobada Gold Project

• Toubani announces it has approved FID for the Kobada Gold Project in Mali.
• Development teams and contractors have been mobilised to site.
• To date, 36% of Project capital cost has been committed.
• Toubani held A$139m of cash as of 26^th February and has agreed a $80m streaming deal and $73m senior debt financing facility.
• Kobada Gold Project:
  • $216m CAPEX 6mtpa CIL project focused on oxide processing.
  • 9 year LOM processing average head grade of 0.9g/t Au
  • Average annual gold production of 162kozpa
  • 54mt at 0.9g/t Au for 1.56moz reserves
  • AISC of $1,175/oz Au.
  • Post-tax NPV8 of $500m at $2,200/oz with IRR of 50%.
• Toubani is targeting first gold in 3Q27.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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