Gold hovers around $5,000/oz ahead of US employment and inflation numbers
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
ECR Minerals (ECR LN) – Raglan mine plan
European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) – Progress with permitting the Cinovec lithium project, Czechia
Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – Board changes
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Initial MRE for the Pepas project, Colombia
Panther Metals (PALM LN) – Progress towards an MRE at the Winston Lake tailings project, Ontario
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – CEO statement
PLS (PLS AU) – Canmax offtake with a $1,000/SC6 floor price and $100m prepayment
PMET Resources* (PMET CN) – Up to C$130m equity raise
Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) – Strategic investor
The News Forum Interview:
- Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast
IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86
We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a
Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.04% | at | 50,136 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.28% | at | 57,651 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.58% | at | 27,183 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.13% | at | 4,128 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -2.2 | at | 4.18 |
Currencies
US$1.1915/eur vs 1.1856/eur previous. Yen 155.54/$ vs 156.69/$. SAr 15.931/$ vs 15.993/$. $1.368/gbp vs $1.360/gbp. 0.707/aud vs 0.703/aud. CNY 6.913/$ vs 6.928/$.
Dollar Index 96.90 vs 97.34 previous.
Economics
TSMC climbs this morning after reporting the fastest increase in revenues in months reflecting strong AI related infrastructure spending.
- Revenues were up 37% in January, above the 30% target for the year.
US – Equities are pushing higher ahead of a series of economic data this week.
- Retails Sales are out later today (+0.4%mom est vs +0.6%mom Nov).
- NFPs released Wednesday (68k est v 50k Dec).
- CPI and Core CPI due Friday (2.5% and 2.5% est v 2.7% and 2.6% Dec)
UK – PM Starmer fights calls to quit saying he was “not prepared to walk away” amid links between Lord Peter Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein.
- Mandelson is reported to have passed confidential UK government information to Epstein in the wake of the 2007 financial crisis.
DRC – The government is looking to enforce a long-dormant local employee ownership rules.
- Mines Minister Louis Watum said miners need to demonstrate that 5% of their share capital is held by Congolese employees, Mining.com reports.
- Companies will have until July 31 2026 to prove that.
Zambia – Construction works on the Lobito Rail link to start his year, Zambia President Hakainde Hichilema told reporters on the sidelines of the Indaba conference.
- The project has two segments including a refurbishment of an existing rail line linking the Angola’s Lobito port to southern DRC and a larger and costlier plan for a 800km long spur line from the main rail to Zambia’s northwestern province.
- The spur line alone is estimated to cost as much as $4.5bn.
Botswana – Authorities are considering raising corporate and personal taxes to offset a drop in diamond revenue and support a widening budget deficit.
- Finance Ministry proposals submitted to lawmakers this week include
- A 2.5pp increase in corporate tax to 24.5%
- A 2.5pp increase in the top rate income tax to 27.5%
- Budget projections indicate deficit to expand to 8.9% GDP, more than double the 4% limit in the nation’s fiscal guidelines.
- “Every nation needs adequate revenue to provide services effectively, and everyone has a responsibility to contribute their fair share,” Finance Minister said
Precious metals:
Gold US$5,047/oz vs US$5,025/oz previous
Gold ETFs 100.1moz vs 100.0moz previous
Platinum US$2,092/oz vs US$2,104/oz previous
Palladium US$1,739/oz vs US$1,733/oz previous
Silver US$82.1/oz vs US$81.7/oz previous
Silver ETFs 842.6moz vs 848.5moz previous
Rhodium US$10,400/oz vs US$10,475/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,098/t vs US$13,080/t previous
Aluminium US$3,092/t vs US$3,082/t previous
Nickel US$17,135/t vs US$17,136/t previous
Zinc US$3,361/t vs US$3,342/t previous
Lead US$1,964/t vs US$1,957/t previous
Tin US$48,690/t vs US$46,293/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$69.0/bbl vs US$67.5/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices strengthened further after the US issued a warning to all American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- After ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell maintained their respective levels, BP became the first supermajor to suspend its share buyback, as the Company seeks to fully allocate excess cash to accelerate strengthening of the balance sheet
- Transocean and Valaris have agreed an all-stock merger (54:46 equity split) to create the world’s highest-specification drilling fleet of 73 offshore rigs, including 33 ultra-deepwater drillships, nine semisubmersibles and 31 modern jack-ups. The merger targets over $200m in annual cost synergies and a projected leverage ratio of ~1.5x within two years.
Natural Gas €33.6/MWh vs €32.7/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $86.2/lb vs $85.7/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.3/t vs US$100.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.6/t vs US$465.7/t
HCC FOB Australia US$245.5/t vs US$247.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$117.3/t vs US$116.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$116,441/t vs US$108,075/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$19,455/t vs US$19,382/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$2,015/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,603/mtu vs US$1,553/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$126/lb vs US$121/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.6/lb vs US$5.8/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$25.2/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$263/t vs US$262/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,135/t vs US$1,131/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$367.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg
EV & battery news
Jaguar Land Rover to recall 2,200 SUVs in US due to battery fault
- The automaker is recalling 2,278 I-PACE SUVs in the US due a fault with the battery that may cause it to overheat.
- JLR will update the battery software to limit charging to 90%, as an interim repair, while a final fix is developed.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 1.1% | 0.3% | Freeport-McMoRan | 4.8% | 4.7% |
| Rio Tinto | 1.4% | 6.4% | Vale | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| Glencore | -0.6% | -3.7% | Newmont Mining | 4.7% | 7.0% |
| Anglo American | -0.7% | -4.8% | Fortescue | -1.0% | 1.4% |
| Antofagasta | -2.8% | -4.1% | Teck Resources | 4.5% | 5.3% |
Company News:
ECR Minerals (ECR LN) 0.29p, Mkt Cap £11m – Raglan mine plan
- ECR Minerals has described its initial mine plan for an area of around 16 hectares at its Raglan alluvial gold project in central Queensland.
- Mining will start to an average depth of ~1.5m “along the main historic river channel … [which has] … potential to recover approximately 938 ounces of gold in Phase 1 over a multi-year period … [generating] … approximately A$7 million at prevailing gold prices”.
- Today’s announcement explains that “Indicative revenue over the coming years represents a multiple of approximately seven times the Raglan Project acquisition price, based solely on the initial Phase 1 mine plan”.
- Further ahead “side creeks, extensions, deeper gravels and optimisation opportunities … represent potential upside for future mining phases”.
- “Over the coming weeks, the Company intends to dig and process a series of test pits at the northern end of the Raglan Project area outside of the Phase 1 area. These test pits are expected to provide additional insight into gravel depth variability, grade distribution and potential extensions to the current mine plan”.
- The company has previously described development of Raglan as a “near-term cash-generating asset and a platform for multi-year operational growth”.
- Chairman, Nick Tulloch said that “As we gain more operating data from site, we see a clear opportunity to refine and expand the mining plan over time, potentially extending the mine life”.
European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) 18p, Mkt Cap £40m – Progress with permitting the Cinovec lithium project, Czechia
- European Metals Holdings confirms that, following public consultation, it has received re-zoning approval for its Cinovec lithium project.
- “The rezoning defines the Project’s areas and corridors for lithium mining and processing, including corridors for necessary utility supply developments including water, electricity and gas at all of the Project’s sites”.
- “It also defines the area for the storage and processing of materials from mining activities and the treatment of lithium concentrate at the Prunéřov Processing Plant site, and the planned tailings management facilities”.
- Executive Chairman, Keith Coughlan, explained that the rezoning, in conjunction with the DFS and “the recent EU and Czech government grants, the cornerstones are now in place for the rapid advancement of the Cinovec Project towards Final Investment Decision and ultimately, production”.
Conclusion: Approval of rezoning for the Cinovec project area moves the project another step closer to project approval and an FID.
Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 1.1p, Mkt Cap £14m – Board changes
- The Company announced Richard Wilkins (Independent NED) stepped down from the Board with immediate effect.
*SP Angel acts as Broker to Goldstone Resources
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 28.8p, Mkt Cap £134m – Initial MRE for the Pepas project, Colombia
BUY: 30p target
- Orosur Mining has released an initial mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Pepas deposit in the northern part of its ~330km2 Anzá Project, Colombia.
- An NI43-101 compliant resource prepared to CIM standards and reported at a 0.92g/t cut-off, comprises:
o An Indicated resource of 1.14mt at an average grade of 5.46g/t gold hosting ~201koz; and
o An Inferred resource of 190kt at an average grade of 2.99g/t adding a further 18koz.
- The MRE is based on “a total of 79 diamond drill holes representing 10,592.10 metres of drilling … [spaced at] … approximately 15m to 30m over the deposit”.
- The Pepas deposit “is hosted within a broadly NNW-SSE to NNE-SSW trending sinuous zone of quartz veining” and the MRE covers a “NW-SE fault-bounded block whose dimensions are approximately 200m (strike length) x 100m (width) to a maximum depth of 100m”.
- CEO, Brad George, said that Orosur Mining “will now immediately move Pepas into the economic study and permitting stage, while at the same time expanding our exploration effort to begin testing other prospects within the Anzá project”.
Conclusion: An initial 219,000oz MRE underpins the next phase of economic evaluation and permitting for the Pepas deposit and frees exploration resources to begin work on other opportunities within the Anzá project area.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining
Panther Metals (PALM LN) 77.5p, Mkt Cap £5.2m – Progress towards an MRE at the Winston Lake tailings project, Ontario
- Panther Metals reports that sampling is underway at its Winston Lake tailings project in Ontario.
- The sampling and subsequent assaying will progress mineral resource estimation by the independent consultants, SRK Exploration.
- The Winston Lake mine operated for ten years until closure in 1998 and is reported to have produced 3.3mt of zinc/copper/silver and gold bearing ore and Panther Metals is evaluating the potential to develop what it believes is “a significant quantity of valuable material … in the tailing storage facility”.
- The company has previously quoted an economic study from 2021 using a copper price of US$2,700/t (currently ~US$13,00/t), a gold price of US$1,635/oz (currently ~US$5,000/oz) and a silver price of US$21/oz (currently ~US$80/oz) where capital investment of ~C$145m and a treatment rate of 326ktpa over an 8.5year project life produces “an average 33.40ktpa contained zinc,1.3ktpa contained copper, 698oz recovered gold and 90.8koz recovered silver”.
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) 1.15p, Mkt Cap £3.0m – CEO statement
(Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)
- Phoenix Copper’s CEO, Ryan McDermott, has issued an announcement following yesterday’s suspension of the company’s Executive Chairman, Marcus Edwards Jones and Chief Financial Officer, Richard Wilkins as it investigates “allegations made in relation to Mr Edwards-Jones’s and Mr Wilkins’s recent conduct and certain historic payments made to Lloyd Edwards-Jones S.A.S., the Company’s former Corporate Finance Adviser”.
- Mr. McDermott reassures shareholders that “the Board and management team, with input from our professional advisors, are taking all the necessary steps to progress the investigations we referred to yesterday as thoroughly and efficiently as possible”.
- He explains that measures are in place to “ensure continuity of leadership, whilst also minimising any disruption to the Company in the short term while the investigations are ongoing”.
- He confirms “the Company’s current strategy and priorities. Importantly, the Company’s core assets and projects remain unchanged, and the Board continues to believe strongly in their long-term value and development potential” and that work continues to advance the Empire project in Idaho.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Phoenix Copper
PLS (PLS AU) A$4.2, Mkt Cap A$13.6bn – Canmax offtake with a $1,000/SC6 floor price and $100m prepayment
- The Company signed a binding offtake with Canmax Technologies.
- Terms:
- 2y through mid-CY28 with an option to extend for an additional 12m
- 150ktpa SC with an option to supply additional volumes both/either Pilgan and Ngungaju plants
- US$1,000/SC6 floor price
- US$100m unsecured interest free prepayment (repaid with SC shipments)
- Pricing aligned with the prevailing market price
PMET Resources* (PMET CN) C$5.6, Mkt Cap C$917m – Up to C$130m equity raise
- The Company is raising up to C$130m to advance the 100% owned Shaakichiuwaanaan Lithium Project in Quebec, Canada.
- The issue includes two parts:
- ~C$65m from a placing at C$5.66/share (down from C$6.30 Friday close)
- ~C$65m from flow through shares to be issued at C$9.30 (premium reflecting tax benefits related to flow through shares)
- Additionally, Volkswagen, a 9.6% investor in the Company, indicated to participate in a separate private placement for an up to C$14m at not less than C$5.66/share subject to it obtaining internal approvals.
- Proceeds to be used for
- Completion of the detailed engineering to support a FID by YE27
- Prepare an updated and optimised FS on CV5 including tantalum by-products
- Complete a PEA on CV13 for lithium, caesium, tantalum
- General working capital
*SP Angel analyst(s) hold shares in PMET Resources
Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) 7.5p, Mkt Cap £70m – Strategic investor
- Zanaga Iron Ore, which is developing a high-grade Fe project in the Republic of Congo, reports that it has signed a binding term sheet with a strategic investor, Red Arc Minerals (RAM).
- Phased investment of US$150m includes a first US$25m tranche to “advance the Zanaga Project to FID and acquire an aggregate 20% interest in Jumelles”. Jumelles is ZIOC’s wholly owned subsidiary which owns the project.
- RAM has an option to provide a second US$125m tranche “to acquire an incremental 67.5% fully diluted ownership of Jumelles from ZIOC (resulting in aggregate RAM ownership of Jumelles of 87.5%), exercisable within 18 months of completion of the full US$25 million Tranche One”.
- Closing of the 2nd tranche will trigger a 1% NSR to ZIOC “on all iron ore concentrate sales from the Project, subject to a partial buy-back at RAM’s option (US$50 million for 0.50%)”.
- Approval of shareholders will be required.
- RAM is described as “a private investment company backed by leading mining industry executives … [including Sir Mick Davis and Heeney Capital] … and focussed on the development of strategic-scale high-grade iron ore assets”.
- Martin Knauth, CEO, described the agreement with RAM as providing “a major acceleration of the Company’s growth strategy by providing the non-dilutive capital required to advance the Zanaga Project through the pre-production phase and towards a final investment decision”.
- He said that “Red Arc Minerals brings both financial strength and deep industry expertise that enhances our ability to deliver the Project. Our established relationship with some of the mining industry’s most respected leaders continues to mature, and this transaction is indicative of their confidence in the Project’s world-class technical and financial credentials”.
Conclusion: The investment by RAM adds impetus towards a final investment decision for the Zanaga iron ore project
LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street
London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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