SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Thursday 8th January 2026

Lithium prices press higher as Australian spodumene hits $1,825/t SC6

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Manna Hill geophysics helps drill targeting

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) – £1.5m fundraising to progress Australian projects

Linq Minerals (LNQ AU) – Step out results from Dam target return 144m at 1g/t AuEq

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) – Kangankunde development picks up pace

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – BUY: 30p – MRE imminent at Pepas following final infill drilling

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Exploration at Pioche sepiolite project, Nevada

Turaco Gold* (TCG AU) – Anuiri infill drilling to support resource growth

West African Resources (WAF AU) – 4Q25 operations update

Lithium prices press higher as Australian spodumene hits $1,825/t SC6

• Lithium prices have risen again on ongoing supply tightness from China.
• China is executing an anti-involution policy which has seen Beijing crack down on environmental permits for domestic spodumene and lepidolite operations.
• This may explain the suspension of CATL’s large Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yichun, which suspended production on August 10^th.
• The mine was set to restart production in December, but this was subsequently delayed to February.
• Jianxiawo produces c.3% of global lithium supply.
• Chinese officials cancelled 27 expired mining licences across the major lithium hub Jiangxi in mid-December as part of a wider waste management crackdown.
• Chinese lithium mines, particularly lepidolite operations, are lower grade, requiring increased waste storage and raising environmental concerns for local and Beijing officials.
• This supply crackdown has coincided with increased demand expectations for energy storage solution lithium demand.
• BESS lithium demand is set to grow faster than EV demand in 2026, fuelling increased concerns of deficits this year vs a major 2025 glut.
• SMM reports battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose $600/t overnight to $17,300/t.
• Hydroxide prices are up $480/t to $16,142/t.
• China’s spodumene concentrate index traded $1,800/t CIF China overnight.
• Listed lithium producers are catching a bid, with three month SP performances of:

• • PLS: +78%
  • Liontown: +99%
  • Albemarle: +78%
  • SGML: +123%
  • SQM: +69%

• Lithium names we like:

• • Kodal Minerals*: recently started exporting spodumene concentrate from their Bougouni Project in Mali, in JV with Hainan Mining
  • Savannah Resources*: well-funded for 1H26 DFS and environmental permitting progression
  • Atlantic Lithium*: Advancing the Ewoyaa spodumene project in Ghana with Elevra through permitting

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and/or Broker

Rare Earths – China has banned the export of dual-use items to Japan

• The move follows remarks by the Japanese Prime Minister on Taiwan.
• Dual-use items are those that can also work in military applications.
• China has an export control list of around 1,100 dual-use items and technologies that manufacturers require a licence for to ship overseas (Reuters).

Currencies

US$1.1671/eur vs 1.1682/eur previous. Yen 156.66/$ vs 156.58/$. SAr 16.471/$ vs 16.407/$. $1.344/gbp vs $1.349/gbp. 0.670/aud vs 0.674/aud. CNY 6.981/$ vs 6.990/$

Dollar Index 98.77 vs 98.67 previous

US – President Trump to ask US lawmakers for $1.5tn in defence spending.

• That would mark a >50% increase on this year ($901bn).
• The increase is suggested to be covered by tariffs.
• “Because of Tariffs, and the tremendous Income that they bring… we are able to easily hit the $1.5 Trillion Dollar number”.
• The administration is also considering limiting US defence companies ability to buyback stock and pay dividends calling on producers to ramp up output instead.
• Trump singled out Raytheon saying “either Raytheon steps up, and starts investing more upfront Investment like Plants and Equipment, or they will no longer be doing business with Department of War.”

More than 1,000 companies are involved in tariff suits against the US government as Supreme Court ruling nears.

• The Supreme Court is due to release its decision on Trump tariffs this Friday.

China says it will guarantee the supply of foreign exchange and manage the market against major events

• China’s forex regulator pledges to ensure the currency needs of businesses and individuals are met while bolstering the country’s defenses against external financial shocks.

SHFE Trading surges to new record on the SHFE to >US$5tn in December

• Copper trade jumped on 29 December as prospects for lower US and Chinese interest rates prompt traders to move into base metals
• The US dollar expected to weaken as China internationalises the yuan with the PBoC moving to enable easier free trading of the currency.

China set to approve some imports of H2OO chips produced by Nvidia this quarter.

• Approval would relate to select commercial use and exclude military, sensitive government data, critical infrastructure and state owned firms applications.

China Vanke bondholders could see 1-10% return from proceeds on distressed property developer

• The company has >US$50bn in liabilities with ~$8bn in cash against $21bn in short-term debt as of late 2025.
• Offshore bondholders may see <1% return on their investment if local Chinese banks are paid ahead of offshore bondholders according to Barclays.
• Bondholders are seen recovering ~10% at best depending on proceeds from Chinese assets
• The situation highlights ongoing difficulty in the Chinese property market.

Chinese banks can offload more bad loans to debt recover firms

• China is allowing banks to offload more bad loan books to debt recovery organisations.
• The NFRA is now allowing banks to transfer bad personal loans in bulk till the year end (Caixin).
• Rising credit card delinquencies and consumer loan defaults is a growing problem for local banks and growth in the economy slows.
• We suspect the move is designed to encourage banks to stimulate greater new lending to drive personal consumption.

Eurozone – Inflation expectations steady but above the 2% target.

• ECB 1y CPI Expectations (Nov/Oct/Est): 2.8 / 2.8 / 2.7
• ECB 3y CPI Expectations (Nov/Oct/Est): 2.5 / 2.5 / 2.5

Germany – Factory orders unexpectedly climbed for a third month in November.

• Most of the increase driven by large scale orders.
• Factory Orders (%mom, Nov / Oct / Est): 5.6 / 1.6 (revised from 1.5) / -1.0

Israel – Russian embassy staff and their families are being urgently evacuated from Israel according to a report.

• The report suggests a major attack is imminent.
• Israel signals no intent to escalate with Iran as Terhan undertakes military preparations consistent with offensive strike.

Iran – Security forces fire on protestors in Kangan, Southern Iran

Venezuela – Reports indicate the ship seized in North Atlantic just off the coast of Scotland sailed from Iran towards Venezuela.

• The ship changed course towards Russia (Murmansk) and was renamed the Marinera, switched to a Russian registry and painted a Russian flag on its side.
• The official cargo was 7.3m bbls of sanctioned Iranian oil.
• Speculation suggests the ship may have been carrying other cargo.

Chinese Oil-for-loan debts at risk

• The US is expected to challenge the very legitimacy of its debts to China (SCMP).
• Illegitimate loans are seen as debt incurred by a regime which has not been to the benefit of the debtor nation.
• The term illegitimate debt was “invoked in Iraq following the fall of Saddam Hussein and, less successfully, in South Africa after the end of apartheid” (SCMP).
• China’s current exposure to Venezuelan estimated at ~US$10bn (AidData).
• The Venezuelan government is likely to appeal to the IMF for support which may require the cancellation of potentially corrupt illegitimate debt.
• Venezuela is still expected to export crude oil to China to keep the economy afloat in the short term as other oil trading is curtailed.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,422/oz vs US$4,468/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.0moz vs 98.9moz previous

Platinum US$2,202/oz vs US$2,321/oz previous

Palladium US$1,711/oz vs US$1,760/oz previous

Silver US$75.3/oz vs US$79.8/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 849.9moz vs 857.0moz previous

Rhodium US$9,850/oz vs US$9,950/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,779/t vs US$13,068/t previous

Aluminium US$3,064/t vs US$3,116/t previous

Nickel US$16,940/t vs US$18,670/t previous

Zinc US$3,148/t vs US$3,236/t previous

Lead US$2,028/t vs US$2,085/t previous

Tin US$44,465/t vs US$44,570/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$60.0/bbl vs US$60.2/bbl previous

Natural Gas €27.5/MWh vs €28.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $82.0/lb vs $81.9/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$107.9/t vs US$109.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$463.7/t vs US$462.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$220.0/t vs US$221.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.0/t vs US$105.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$88,236/t vs US$86,764/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$17,919/t vs US$17,896/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,570/t vs US$1,570/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,038/mtu vs US$1,018/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$103/lb vs US$103/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,124/t vs US$1,123/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Company News:

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.7p, Mkt Cap £45m – Manna Hill geophysics helps drill targeting

• Cobra Resources reports that induced polarisation (IP) geophysical work at the Manna Hill project in South Australia indicates potential for “scalable copper-gold skarn and porphyry mineralisation at the Blue Rose Prospect”.
• The company explains that it has a “12-month option to acquire the Manna Hill Project” where the IP has shown two large scale chargeability anomalies in an area “where existing drilling has intersected skarn hosted copper-gold mineralisation across 1.6km of strike immediately adjacent to a geophysical anomaly interpretated as a porphyry intrusion”.
• New geophysical anomalies at the Black Baccara and Neptune Rose targets as well as further investigation of the depth and strike extent of the Blue Rose prospect will be investigated as part of a 50-hole drilling campaign with the first 15 holes of the programme expected to commence “in mid-January and last for two weeks with results expected by early March”.
• Managing Director, Rupert Verco, said that the geophysics had identified “an untested east-to-west trending chargeability anomaly associated with an untested skarn limb at Neptune Rose, and the chargeability envelope wrapping around the previously modelled remnant magnetised core at the Black Baccara Porphyry target … [in what he described as] … textbook geophysics for a porphyry system”.
• Mr. Verco said that “and previous intersections point to favourable high grade, shallow mineralisation, while results of this recent IP survey support the Company’s interpretation for scale”.

Conclusion: Drill testing of IP anomalies at the Manna Hill project in South Australia will start in mid-January and help establish the scale and continuity of mineralisation.

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) 0.27, Mkt Cap £9.0m – £1.5m fundraising to progress Australian projects

• ECR Minerals, which announced yesterday its plans for initial gold production from its Raglan alluvial project in Queensland before the end of January, reports that it has conditionally raised £1.5m (gross) from placing of ~577m shares at a price of 0.26p/share.
• We estimate that the additional share will represent around 18% of the enlarged company.
• Proceeds of the funding will be used to progress the company’s projects in Victoria and Queensland including:

• • Completing preparation for production at the Blue Mountain and Raglan projects in Queensland; and
  • Further targeted exploration of the Lolworth gold project in northern Queensland; and
  • “Advancing ECR’s projects in Victoria, primarily at the Bailieston Project area … where previous drilling has indicated the presence of gold at shallow depth and potentially high grade antimony”.

• Today’s announcement confirms the Board’s belief that additional equity and the planned cashflows from Raglan will fund “all currently planned activities until very significantly beyond the end of 2026”.
• Chairman, Nick Tulloch, confirmed yesterday’s announcement of expected gold production from Raglan later this month and said that the Blue Mountain project “represents a significantly larger opportunity … [and] … continues to validate its commercial potential following last year’s drilling and wash-plant work, and we are advancing our preparations for development”.
• Mr. Tulloch also confirmed the commitment to progress the Lolworth project and ECR’s Victorian exploration projects.
• He explained that the fundraising “and A$76 million of tax losses available to offset future production profits … [leaves ECR] … well-capitalised and positioned to develop into a significant mining and exploration company in 2026 and beyond”.

Conclusion: New equity and operational cashflow from the Raglan alluvial gold project is expected to fund ECR’s continuing Australian exploration through 2026 and beyond

Linq Minerals (LNQ AU) A$0.28, Mkt Cap A$50m – Step out results from Dam target return 144m at 1g/t AuEq

• Australian copper-gold developer Linq reports drilling results form their Dam target.
• The Dam prospect lies 600m west of the Gidginbung open pit, which holds an oxide resource of 8.1mt MRE at 0.5g/t Au for 140koz.
• Initial drilling returned highlights of:

• • TDRCD001: 144m at 1g/t AuEq (0.55g/t Au and 0.36% Cu) from 84m

• The hole marked a step out hole 110m along strike south from hole DD93GB45 (167m at 1.87g/t AuEq).
• Mineralisation is hosted within a porphyry system and extends 300m along strike.
• Linq previously reported results from the Southern Zone Phase One programme, stepping and out below the open pit.
• This yielded highlights of:

• • GBRCD010: 21m at 2.72g/t AuEq from 149m and 31m at 2.46g/t AuEq from 176m (80m south of open pit)
  • GBRCD011: 21m at 3.02g/t AuEq from 145m and 14.3m at 1.29g/t AuEq from 188m (160m south of open pit)
  • GBRC008: 52m at 1.14g/t AuEq from 102m (below open pit)
  • GBRCD004: 82m at 0.86g/t AuEq from 102m (below open pit)
  • GBRC006: 49m at 0.79g/t AuEq from 128m (below open pit)
  • GBRCD002: 40m at 0.5g/t AuEq from 143m (below open pit)

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) A$0.48, Mkt Cap A$753m – Kangankunde development picks up pace

• The Company mobilised owner operated mining fleet to the Kangankunde REE Project, Malawi.
• Initial Komatsu fleet units arrived at the site and are being inspected with operator training underway in parallel.
• Plant development progressing with detailed engineering and construction planning following completion of early works and site establishment.
• Long lead items ordered and are due to arrive through 2026.
• Camp construction advancing and power connection underway.
• Phase 1 (15ktpa monazite concentrate) commissioning was previously guided for late 2026.

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 24.5p, Mkt Cap £92m – MRE imminent at Pepas following final infill drilling

BUY: 30p

• Orosur reports infill drilling results from Pepas.
• The Company reports assays from the final three holes drilled at Pepas before the maiden MRE.
• Drilling yielded:

• • PEP072B – 47.60m at 3.43g/t Au from surface (inc. 3.5m at 6.5g/t Au)
  • PEP073 – 104.45m at 5.96g/t Au from surface (inc. 34m at 10g/t Au)
  • PEP074 – 71.35m @ 6.46g/t Au from surface (inc. 15m at 23.6g/t Au)

• Assay results confirm the continuity, high-grade and thickness of the Pepas mineralisation.
• Orosur has now submitted the drilling database to the MRE consultants.
• Excitingly, Orosur has begun work on feasibility studies for Pepas, beginning exploring both economic exploitation and permitting due to accelerate on MRE completion.
• A new rig has now been diverted to a regional drilling programme north of Pepas, aimed at defining similar mineralisation to Pepas.
• Elsewhere, drilling programmes south of APTA and El Cedro will be outlined on completion of airborne geophysical surveys.
• Additionally, Orosur has gained exploration licences around Anza, increasing their contiguous land holding to 173km2, up 65%.
• Orosur is studying surface exploration work conducted by Agnico Eagle/Newmont to generate a regional-scale exploration programme now that drilling is possible.

Conclusion: This is an exciting year for Orosur. An MRE is due towards the end of January/early February for Pepas, where we expect over 300koz Au at 4g/t Au. Pepas anchors our Orosur valuation, and we previously outlined the potential for a low-cost toll-treating operation taking advantage of the high-grade, low-strip nature of the expected economic deposit. However, for us, the real prize at Orosur remains the wider regional exploration potential at Anza. We are thus encouraged to note that the Company has directed a new rig to the north of the licence. A healthy cash position and recent increased land package enables Orosur to begin an aggressive exploration programme through 2026, complimented by MRE drilling at APTA to the south and maiden drilling at the El Cedro porphyry target in early 2026.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) 0.03p Mkt Cap £2.2m – Exploration at Pioche sepiolite project, Nevada

• Sunrise Resources reports that additional fieldwork during December at its Pioche sepiolite project in Nevada, including a detailed review of core samples from its 2024 drilling, has indicated the possibility of “additional layers and thicknesses of sepiolite not previously sampled or tested”.
• The company has sent a further 44 samples for testing and Executive Chairman, Patrick Cheetham, confirmed that “samples resulting from the December field programme provide a bank of samples available to interested parties with the first batch of samples having now been received by a large European industrial minerals group”.
• The samples collected in December “will also support a planned Phase 3 testwork programme to apply Company’s processing methodology across a wider range of samples, particularly for sepiolite applications in the valuable US oil and gas drilling markets”.
• Mr. Cheetham explained that the work “has demonstrated that there are extensive sepiolite beds at Pioche, extending over several square kilometres, and our process development testwork in 2025 has laid a good foundation for the commercial development of this deposit”.

Turaco Gold* (TCG AU) A$0.80, Mkt Cap A$840m – Anuiri infill drilling to support resource growth

• Turaco Gold, who hold the 4.1moz Afema project in Cote d’Ivoire, report infill drilling results from the Anuiri target.
• Turaco was aiming to upgrade inferred resources in Anuiri and Jonction to at least indicated level, also extending mineralisation down dip.
• Management expects assay results to boost confidence in the Anuiri resource and deliver MRE growth.
• Anuiri currently holds 9.7mt at 1.7g/t Au for 520koz.
• Drilling at Jonction (9.1mt at 2.1g/t Au for 610koz) was undertaken for metallurgical testwork.
• Turaco is aiming to deliver an updated global MRE to inform a PFS due for completion 2Q26.
• Drilling has been redirected to exploration, targeting high-grade extensions at Adiopan, which previously returned 16m at 5g/t Au from 121m and 25m at 2.48g/t Au from 72m, with further results due soon.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Turaco Gold

West African Resources (WAF AU) A$3.3, Mkt Cap A$3.8bn – 4Q25 operations update

• The Company released an 4Q25 update for its gold operations in Burkina Faso.
• 4Q25 gold production 112koz.
• FY25 production 300koz, in line with guidance (290-360koz).
• FY25 sales 280koz at an average realised gold price $3,525/oz.
• Sanbrado delivered 205koz.
• Kiaka operation continued to ramp with throughput and grades up 25%qoq and 44%qoq in 4Q25.
• Recently commissioned Kiaka produced 62koz during the quarter treating 2.2mt at 1.0g/t (92.9% recoveries).
• Kiaka delivered 95koz in FY25.
• No details on negotiations with authorities regarding a government stake in Kiaka.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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