SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Thursday 18th June 2026

Rare Earth prices rise on strong demand for EVs, renewable energy and defense

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Asara Resources (AS1 AU) – Kada MRE expansion programme supported by additional assays

BHP (BHP LN) – Jansen Stage 2 costs rise with production expected to be deferred by 2 years

Cuprum Metals (PRIVATE) – $19m Series A funding backed by BHP and Lundin Family to advance copper sulphide leaching technology

Many Peaks (MPK AU) – Drilling to grow 1.3moz Ourague MRE in Cote d’Ivoire

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) – Caldeira Rare Earth Project permitting update

Panther Metals (PALM LN) – £2.5m fundraising to expand drilling in Ontario

Shuka Minerals (SKA LN) – 4^th drillhole completed at Kabwe

Rare Earth prices rise on strong demand for EVs, renewable energy and defense

• NdPr Rare Earth Oxide prices jumped to US$106,827/t today from US$103,972/t in China despite strict export controls.
• G7 meeting statement is looking to cut REE reliance from China to less than 60% by 2030.
• The price rise is thought to be more demand driven with a strong push by China to sell EV lorries in competition to diesel combustion.

Lithium prices edge lower as China rumours continue over CATL mine restart

• Carbonate prices have edged lower in China at $23.7k/t whilst spodumene prices are holding the $2,400/t level, having touched $3,000/t earlier this year.
• The 175% 12 month LCE rally has been driven by a combination of increased demand expectations from the rapidly growing energy storage sector and supply shocks from China and Zimbabwe.
• The suspension of CATL’s large-scale lepidolite operation, alongside several smaller operations over environmental concerns, reduced available feedstock for Chinese refineries.
• CRU expects carbonate prices to rise over $33.5k/t in 3Q26 and Benchmark Minerals have boosted their LCE price forecasts to $30k/t this year.
• The second half of the year has historically seen stronger seasonal demand for lithium products.
• BloombergNEF expects storage capacity in China to grow at a CAGR of 8% through to 2036, driving higher lithium demand requirements.
• There have been several restarts and new projects in recent months, with MinRes restarting Bald Hill and Core Lithium bringing Finniss back online.
• Zimbabwe has reduced export controls on lithium ore despite longer term ambitions to bring more downstream processing in country.
• Inventory levels in China have jumped as major futures players flipped short following the sharp rally through 2Q26.

Copper – MoU with Iran brings new buyers as Chinese traders offer record low Treatment and Refining charges on copper concentrates

• TC/Rcs break new record low as smelters bid for high-grade copper cargos with high pyrite content for acid production.
• TCs fell to USD -119/t this week with one trader buying a cargo at -$225/t albeit at a premium grade (Mysteel)
• Other cargos have been signed at -$100/t TCs as traders struggle to replace lost Iranian concentrates (Benchmark)

• • Iran produced >1mt of copper concentrates and 327,000 of refined copper in 2025 (NICOCO)
  • The war caused the two major copper mines to close costing Iran two to three months of lost production.

• Copper cathode continues to flow into he US drawn by compelling premiums on Comex tightening Asian and European markets.
• The $300bn reconstruction fund for Iran indicates potential for substantial new construction in the region.
• Many believe the peace deal will not last with IRGC factions and their proxies potentially lacking the discipline to avoid violations.
• Once the US Mid Term elections are out of the way, Trump may well look to secure a better deal with Iran.

Gold ($4,269/oz) weakens following hawkish Fed meeting as dollar rises to 14-month highs

• Gold fell 1% in the wake of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting, sliding back below $4,300/oz.
• Gold slumped to $4,224/oz in the wake of the meeting, before rebounding slightly.
• This likely reflected a sharp jump in the US dollar, with the dollar index rallying back over 100 to hit its highest level since April.
• Warsh emphasised a commitment to controlling inflation in his first FOMC meeting, sticking to the 2% inflation target.
• Treasury yields fell slightly and are holding around 4.44% for the 10 year.
• Gold ETFs have been selling for seven consecutive days, cutting 136koz yesterday to bring ytd net sales to 1.84moz.
• ETF holdings have fallen to their lowest level since early November as retail enthusiasm for the gold trade wanes.

Nickel – Indonesia keeps nickel ore quotas tight, with no relief until July

• ESDM ‘Indonesia’s energy and minerals ministry’ has not signalled bigger 2026 nickel quotas and is waiting for RKAB filings due 1 to 31 July.
• RKAB ‘the annual plan each miner must get approved to set how much it can produce’ being the main supply control.
• With Indonesia’s domestic demand near 415Mt against a national quota of only 250 to 270Mt, supply stays tight and July is the key date.
• Outside Indonesia, Brazilian Nickel is seeking an anchor investor for its $1.4bn Piauí nickel-cobalt project, backed by TechMet and advised by Rothschild

Tin ($54,260/t) – holds high level as AI semiconduction boom drives new demand

• BMI have raised their average tin price forecast to $49,000/t for 2026 from $45,000.
• $785bn of AI spending is expected to lift tin demand this year according to BMI ‘the research arm of Fitch Solutions’.
• Indonesian exports are returning to normal, with PT Timah proposing a dividend of about $37m.

China’s new mining law gives Beijing a way to hit back, analysts say (mining.com, 17 Jun)

• Analysts say China’s new Mineral Resources Law, its biggest revamp since 1986, could be used to push back against foreign restrictions.
• It adds import-export controls and countermeasures to protect its supply chains, though the exact measures were not spelled out.
• The state can now decide what counts as a “strategic mineral” and even run mines or seize supply during a crisis.
• Just as China tightens its grip, the G7 agreed this week to cut any single country’s share of their rare-earth imports below 60% by 2030.
• The G7 also floated mandatory quotas for the defense industry to reduce its reliance on China.

Iran – US and Iran sign deal ahead of schedule

• Iranian oil shipments restart with ~3.8mbbls passing through the US blockade.

Ceasefire MoU terms expanded to include Lebanon to protect Hezbollah proxies

• Any deal is likely to require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.
• Lebanon full implementation of the Taif Constitution the Document of National Accord and subsequent cabinet changes should expand states ability to contain Hezbollah.
• A US, Saudi, Qatar, Iran group has been proposed to supervise the stabilisation of the Lebanon border with Israel efforts and verify Israeli military withdrawal.
• Multi-phased Hezbollah weapons handovers south and north of the Litani River face operational difficulties due to internal concerns over possible Israeli ground incursions after disarmament.
• US Senate backs Trump’s authority to conduct military operations against Iran without congressional approval by 48-47.
• Mojtaba Khamenei has no intention of signing a final nuclear agreement and accepted the framework primarily to secure economic relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli intelligence (Channel 12)
• The IRGC has reportedly launched drones toward merchant vessels every night since the MoU was digitally signed on Sunday (NBC citing US officials).
• Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last Shah, urged the international community to support the Iranian people rather than the Iranian regime during negotiations.
• “But let me be clear — with or without international support — this regime will fall. The people of Iran will liberate themselves from tyranny.”

Iranian parliament speaker “says everything we sought to achieve through milirary action was secured several times over at the negotiating table”.

• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has previously been seen burning the American flag in Iran’s parliament.
• Iran never won a war but never lost a negotiation ‘Trump’.

 Currencies

US$1.1510/eur vs 1.1611/eur previous. Yen 160.61/$ vs 160.27/$. SAr 16.376/$ vs 16.205/$. $1.330/gbp vs $1.342/gbp. 0.703/aud vs         0.706/aud. CNY 6.763/$ vs 6.757/$.

Dollar Index 100.31 vs 99.51 previous.

Economics

US – Rates and US$ index climbed on hawkish rhetoric by Kevin Warsh.

• “Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people,” new Fed Chair said during the press conference.
• “Member of the (FOMC) are unambiguous and unanimous: this committee will deliver price stability.”
• The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, in line with expectations.
• Although, odds of a hike before year end increased and now stand at ~85%.
• Shorter end rates (2y) jumped to a 16-month high on comments.
• The US$ index posted its biggest single day increase in over three months and hit a two month high.
• Additionally, dot plot released yesterday showed increasing number of policy makers pivoting towards more hikes.
• 18 projections of the usual 19 went into the dot plot (possibly, Kevin Warsh not submitting his estimate).
• Of that 18, 9 expected at least one rate hike this year.
• This compares to none recorded in March.

US and Iran signed the MOU remotely extending the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Brent continued to pull back further sliding sub $80 on expectations for a resumption in crude flows through the Strait.
• The US in turn to lift its blockade.
• The MOU includes terms that the ceasefire relates to all fronts, including Lebanon.
• On nuclear programme, the understanding is effectively for the current status quo to be maintained, for now at least, allowing local enrichment facilities with a commitment for nonmilitary related use.

Japan – The government Is ready to respond to exchange rate moves at any time, the office top spokesperson commented on the recent slide in the yen.

• The yen fell to nearly 160.8 earlier today, levels last seen two years ago and undoing the effects of April 30 intervention.
• Records show that authorities spent a record 11.7tn yen (~$73bn) to prop up the yen between late April and early May with the currency having lost all its post intervention gains to date.
• Hawkish Fed comments post the FOMC meeting yesterday added to the yen slide.

UK – The economy added 2k jobs in May compared to a 23k drop expected.

• Pay also climbed stronger than forecast.
• Odds of a rate hike before YE climbed, albeit marginally.
• The BOE is expected to hold rates flat at 3.75% this afternoon.
• Zooming out, demand for labour as indicated by job postings has been trending lower currently seen around the lowest since 2021.
• Av Weekly Earnings (3M %yoy, Apr / Mar / Est): 4.4 / 4.4 (revised from 4.1) / 4.0
• Unemployment Rate (Apr / Mar / Est): 4.9 / 5.0 / 5.0
• Employment Monthly Change (Mar / Feb / Est): 2k / -53k (revised from -100k) / 73k

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,299/oz vs US$4,329/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.1moz vs 97.1moz previous

Platinum US$1,737/oz vs US$1,786/oz previous

Palladium US$1,323/oz vs US$1,352/oz previous

Silver US$68.7/oz vs US$70.2/oz previous

Silver ETFs 785.6moz vs 785.5moz previous

Rhodium US$8,000/oz vs US$8,000/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,732/t vs US$13,823/t previous

Aluminium US$3,407/t vs US$3,412/t previous

Nickel US$17,905/t vs US$18,015/t previous

Zinc US$3,581/t vs US$3,574/t previous

Lead US$1,968/t vs US$1,976/t previous

Tin US$54,260/t vs US$55,145/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$78.4/bbl vs US$78.1/bbl previous

Natural Gas €40.5/MWh vs €41.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.6/lb vs $85.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.4/t vs US$99.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$484.9/t vs US$486.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$244.0/t vs US$243.8/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$135.5/t vs US$135.5/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$106,827/t vs US$103,972/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,731/t vs US$24,051/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,400/t vs US$2,400/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,765/mtu vs US$1,765/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$228/lb vs US$228/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.2/kg vs US$27.2/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$225/t vs US$229/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vs US$2,809/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,161/t vs US$1,162/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$402.5/t vs US$402.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$4,075.0/kg vs US$4,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$31.0/lb vs US$31.0/lb

EV & Battery news:

Company news:

Asara Resources (AS1 AU) A$0.15, Mkt Cap A$284m – Kada MRE expansion programme supported by additional assays

• Guinean gold explorer Asara reports assay results from 37 holes and 5,625m of drilling at its Kada Gold Project.
• Current drilling is targeting the Massan deposit amid an extensive programme of upgrading and increasing indicated MRE ounces and expanding the inferred MRE footprint.
• Today’s results including assays from the northeast high-grade extension of the Massan deposit, including:

• • MSRC26-097B: 87m at 1.3g/t Au from 63m
  • MSRC26-071: 22m at 2.8g/t Au from 4m (inc. 5m at 7.4g/t Au from 13m and 2m at 6.8g/t Au from 20m
  • MSRC26-077: 13m at 4.6g/t Au from 41m (inc. 3m at 10.5g/t Au)
  • MSRC26-081: 24m at 1.8g/t Au from 8m (inc. 1m at 21g/t Au)
  • MSRC26-103: 51m at 0.8g/t Au from 39m (inc. 11m at 1.4g/t Au)

• Results further support the thesis that there remains significant mineralisation to the northeast of the core Massan deposit.
• Asara has engaged TECT to review the structural geology of the deposit to support an upcoming updated MRE.
• Drilling has supported the conversion to expand the Indicated strike length of 300m to closer to 1,300m in line with the existing inferred MRE footprint.
• On expansion, mineralisation has now been identified over a 3,500m mineralised corridor with spacing still insufficient for an inferred classification.
• Asara continues drilling with three RC rigs, one RC/AC rig and one diamond rig operational.
• An updated MRE is targeted for August 2026.

BHP (BHP LN) 3,350p, Mkt Cap £177bn – Jansen Stage 2 costs rise with production expected to be deferred by 2 years

• BHP has announced that a review of cost and schedules for Stage 2 its Jansen Potash project has increased the estimated capital cost “from US$4.9 billion to US$6.9 billion … with first production estimated in late FY2031 … from FY2029”.
• The company says that “The majority of the cost increase for Jansen Stage 2 is from additional construction hours and quantities of materials to complete Jansen Stage 2 and escalation”.
• The Stage 2 project is expected “to deliver approximately 4.36 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of production. Following an expected two-year ramp-up period from first production, combined output from Jansen is expected to be 8.5Mtpa and will deliver approximately 10% of total global potash production”.
• In January, BHP announced an increased cost for the project to US$8.4bn from the “previously estimated range of US$7.0 billion to US$7.4 billion … announced in July 2025 and the US$5.7 billion initial estimate of the investment cost for Jansen Stage 1 when the project was approved in August 2021”.
• Confirming that “BHP continues to expect Jansen Stage 2 to deliver approximately 4.36 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of production. Following an expected two-year ramp-up period from first production, combined output from Jansen is expected to be 8.5Mtpa and will deliver approximately 10% of total global potash production”.
• BHP says that “At consensus prices, Jansen Stage 2 has an updated internal rate of return of 11% and expected payback period of 8 years. Underlying EBITDA margins for Jansen Stage 2 remain above 65% due to its low cost position”.
• BHP confirms that “Jansen Stage 1 is achieving its critical path milestones set in the updated January 2026 cost and schedule estimate, and first production remains on track for mid CY2027”.
• Brandon Craig, BHP President Americas and CEO-elect, described the Jansen project as “an important pillar of BHP’s strategy and will deliver exposure to a future facing commodity with strong demand fundamentals and portfolio diversification benefits”.
• He said that the “combined Jansen Stage 1 and 2 will be a low cost, long life asset with almost 60 year mine life … [which] … will establish BHP as a leading player in the global potash industry”.

Conclusion: Additional material and labour costs have increased the cost of the second stage of the Jansen project by US$2bn with production deferred by 2 years. In context, Stage 1 remains on track with the revised critical path cost and schedule announced in January and the 60-year Jansen project is expected to provide around 10% of the world’s potash.

Cuprum Metals (PRIVATE)– $19m Series A funding backed by BHP and Lundin Family to advance copper sulphide leaching technology

• US-based private group Cuprum Metals has raised $19.4m in a Series A funding round led by the Lundins and backed by Woodline and BHP Ventures.
• Cuprum is advancing a water-based chemical leach to recover copper via leaching of chalcopyrite and other copper sulphide minerals.
• BHP states the technology holds the ‘potential to expand recovery pathways and support more flexible development options across different ore bodies.;
• Cuprum is targeting copper sulphide ores, smelter slags and tailings.
• Results to date show Cuprum’s technology effective at room temperature and pressure achieving >70% recoveries from chalcopyrite leaching within 100 days.
• The process is intended to use less acid than standard oxide leach processes and has been tested on mines in South Africa, USA, Chile and Australia.
• Funding will be used to support commercial deployment of the Cuprum technology.

Many Peaks (MPK AU) A$0.89, Mkt Cap A$148m – Drilling to grow 1.3moz Ourague MRE in Cote d’Ivoire

• Many Peaks reports drilling results from its Ouarigue project in Cote d’Ivoire.
• The Company has completed 11 additional diamond drill holes over 2,350m.
• Drilling targeted extensions of the northern extent of the Ouarigue MRE.
• Highlights include:

• • FNDC112: 41.5m at 1.42g/t Au from 1.6m and 39.8m at 3.94g/t Au from 53m
  • FNDC110: 95m at 1.43g/t Au from 170m
  • FNDC114: 42m at 1.01g/t Au from 24m and 56m at 1g/t Au from 85m
  • FNDC106: 20m at 1.88g/t Au from 394m

• Assay results from 7,051m of RC drilling is pending, with assays due for 5,131m in mid-July.
• Management states the results ‘build confidence and bolster the growth potential for Ouarigue.’
• The MRE currently stands at 26.7mt at 1.54g/t Au for 1.3moz.
• Many Peaks has begun PFS workstreams for the wider Ferke project and expects to complete an update MRE to support the 4Q26 PFS.
• Drill targeting is also being explored at Ferke South, with RC drilling planned to focus on priority targets following permitting.

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) A$0.16, Mkt Cap A$470m – Caldeira Rare Earth Project permitting update

• The Company updates on the permitting progress at the wholly owned Caldeira Rare Earth Project, Brazil (Minas Gerais).
• The Installation License (LI) application that was submitted March 2026 is on schedule for a review by environmental authorities (SEMAD) in the DecQ26.
• The Company expected to secure LI in 2026.
• The license would be followed by the FID shortly after.
• As part of the LI review process, representatives of the State Environmental Foundation (FEAM) conducted a site inspection of the forested areas designated for development in late May 2026.
• FEAM will now prepare a field inspection report outlining any requests for additional information regarding project social and environmental programmes.

Panther Metals (PALM LN) 140p, Mkt Cap £12m – £2.5m fundraising to expand drilling in Ontario

• Panther Metals has raised £2.5m via placing ~1.85m shares at a price of £1.35/share representing “approximately 21% of the Company’s existing issued Ordinary Share” capital.
• The proceeds will be used to “support the expansion of the ongoing Phase 1 diamond drilling programme at the Wishbone VMS Prospect on the Obonga Project, northwest Ontario, Canada” including “the mobilisation of a second diamond core drilling rig to accelerate and extend past the initial 2,000 metre drilling budget”.
• In addition to supporting the drilling at Wishbone, the proceeds will support test work on the Winston Lake tailings project, also in Ontario.
• Chief Executive, Darren Hazelwood, described progress with the drilling at Wishbone reporting that “first diamond drill hole of the current Wishbone drilling programme …  [which he described as] … particularly encouraging … [intersecting] … 3.6 metres grading 3.9% zinc, including 2.0 metres at 6.8% zinc and 4.3 g/t silver, with individual assays returning up to 11.65% zinc”.
• He confirmed that the “£2.5 million fundraising will enable the Company to undertake a comprehensive drilling campaign aimed at defining the scale and continuity of the mineralised system”.

Conclusion: Additional £2.5m funding to progress drilling of the Wishbone project in Ontario

Shuka Minerals (SKA LN) 3.65p, Mkt Cap £4.5m – 4^th drillhole completed at Kabwe

• Shuka Minerals reports the completion of its fourth drillhole at the former Anglo American Kabwe zinc mine in central Zambia.
• The hole (KBDD-04) “was designed to intersect the … [No. 2] … ore body at approximately 80m depth and to the west of previous drilling”.
• The company explains that “Historical plans show remaining medium to high grade blocks on the west side of the upper part of the orebody that was partly stoped later in the life of the mine … [and that] …. KBDD04 encountered a mining cross-cut whilst in the ore zone … [and that given] …. the shallow angle drilled, -50°, it was judged unwise to continue drilling a void of >2 m width due to the danger of losing equipment downhole”.
• Zinc silicate mineralisation, thought to be the mineral willemite (Zn₂SiO₄), was intersected “over 13.0 m from 106.60m to 119.65 m (down hole)” with grades indicated by portable XRF readings still to be confirmed by laboratory assay.
• A fifth hole, designed to “intersect the orebody at 450m-500m depth” is underway.
• CEO, Richard Lloyd, said that “Despite terminating the hole slightly shallower than expected, given the intersection with historical mine workings, I am delighted to report yet another positive drill result”.
• He confirmed that “Hole KBDD04 intersected the ore body approximately 70m west of the recent drilling and the results once again highlight the scale of the … Kabwe asset”.
• He said that as the drilling progresses “we are learning more and more about the orebody … [and that future] … drill holes will look to continue to prove the ore body extending laterally and at depth”.

Conclusion: The 4^th drillhole investigating the No. 2 orebody at Kabwe at Kabwe was terminated prematurely after hitting underground mine workings but confirming the westward extension of the mineralisation.  The fifth hole of the programme is underway targeting mineralisation at 450-500m depth.

 Tungsten Mining (TGN AU) A$0.215, Mkt Cap A$335m – PEE study envisages first tungsten production from Watershed in 2027

• Tungsten Mining has released the findings of its Preliminary Economic Evaluation (PEE) for its wholly-owned Watershed tungsten project in Queensland.
• Using “the current spot price … [for the benchmark ammonium paratungstate product of US$3,140/metric tonne unit] … decreasing to a long-term sustained average over a four-year period … [of US$1,000/mtu by] … June 2030” pre-production capital investment of A$274m is expected to generate a pre-tax NPV_8% of A$1.3bn and IRR of 198%.
• Watershed hosts a “JORC 2012 Mineral Resource of 69.7 Mt at 0.11% WO₃ … [with a] … low overall strip ratio of 1.3 across an eight-year mine life”.
• Approximately 80% (54.4mt) of the resource is classed as ‘Measured & Indicated’.
• The PEE project envisages production of 3mtpa of ore at a grade of ~0.11% WO₃ from conventional open-pit mining.
• Ore sorting is planned to upgrade run-of-mine ore to feed ~1.1mtpa to the process plant with a life-of-mine recovery rate of 72.5% to produce around 200,000mtu of tungsten trioxide in a 50% concentrate over an 8-year mine life.
• Payback expected within 9 months of initial ore treatment.
• Operating costs are expected to be ~A$48/t of ore feed equivalent to A$594/mtu.
• Chairman, Gary Lyons, described the PEE as “a significant milestone for Tungsten Mining … [and said that] … we are focused on advancing the project toward a Final Investment Decision in September 2026 and first production thereafter in 2027”.

Conclusion: Watershed’s PEE envisages initial production of tungsten concentrate in 2027 generating a pre-tax NPV8% of A$1.3bn and IRR of 198% over an 8-year mine life.

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

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