SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Thursday 15th October 2026

Gold holds level as rise in US inflation lifts bets for further rate rise

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – Work plan for Parys Mountain

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – Record 9M26 copper production as Demirli ramps up with FY26 guidance reiterated

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) – Increased production Los Pelambres drives 7% increase in Q3 copper output

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Robust Q3 production leaves 2026 production and cost guidance intact

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) SUSPENDED – Retail offer open for retail investors till 5pm today as part of major fundraise at 25p/s

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – BUY, Target 72p – New presentation highlights high-tech and defense-related end uses for critical feedstock from Kasiya project in Malawi

South32 (S32 LN) – Aluminium sale to Alcoa goes to a shareholder vote with more focus on copper/zinc

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Geophysical assessment at Reese Ridge, Nevada

URU Metals* (URU LN) – Convertible loan repayment date extended to 31 December

Gold ($4,143/oz) holds level as rise in US inflation lifts bets for further rate rise

• US consumer prices rose 0.6% last month, up from 0.4% in August.
• Markets see a ~42% chance of a rise this month, up from ~22% before the data, and 93% for December.
• The dollar index rose 0.7%, with 10-year Treasury yields also higher.
• However, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman said the central bank has time to see how markets and the economy evolve.
• Oil rose after an attack on the headquarters of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company.
• Iranian officials told Reuters they are using new tactics to target ships, to keep oil prices high.

Copper ($14,303/t) falls for a third day as hot US inflation lifts rate-rise bets

• Base metals sold off after US inflation came in stronger than expected, lifting bets on further Fed tightening.
• AI stocks led the falls, and South Korea’s equity benchmark dropped 8% on doubts over technology spending.
• However, Escondida supervisors approved a wage deal on Wednesday, averting a strike at the world’s biggest copper mine.
• Talks had resumed overnight with Chile’s labour authority involved, after the union declared them over on Tuesday.

Chile’s Government calls an urgent mining safety roundtable after a series of fatal accidents

• The roundtable brings in workers, companies, industry bodies, lawmakers, and regulator Sernageomin.

Codelco meets shareholders over output figures

• Codelco called an extraordinary shareholders meeting for 5 November at the government’s request.
• The meeting will examine inconsistencies in copper production figures for 2024 and 2025.
• Codelco has hired EY to investigate the possibly inflated output data.
• Separate irregularities found earlier this year involved 2% of own-mine output improperly recorded as finished production.

Platinum ($1,612/oz) falls as Valterra nears a decision to take Mogalakwena underground

• Platinum prices fell 3.2% to $1,612/oz, with Valterra nearing a decision to take Mogalakwena underground.
• Mogalakwena in South Africa is the world’s largest platinum mine, with more than eight decades of reserves left.
• The decision comes on the back of falling grades in the open pit.
• The Sandsloot underground project begins trial mining later this year, with a final investment decision in 2027.
• Approval would be Valterra’s biggest step since it was spun out of Anglo American in June 2025.
• Management says forecasts for battery electric vehicle uptake have consistently proved too optimistic.

Nickel – Indonesia’s export target lifted to $45bn for 2026

• Indonesia is targeting $45bn of nickel exports in 2026, up from more than $40bn in 2025.
• Nickel export earnings have risen from $3.3bn in 2017 to $34bn in 2023, Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said.
• The gain follows the ban on raw nickel ore exports, which drew in processing plants and battery supply chains.
• European countries took Indonesia to the WTO over the policy, which the government now plans to extend to other sectors.

Anthropic released 3Q26 revenues reporting ~50%qoq increase to $16.8bn with positive earnings on adjusted basis.

• That compares to $11.5bn in 2Q26, a ~140% increase on the 1Q26.
• The Company did not provide an update to its annualised revenue that hit $65bn at the end of July.
• SemiAnalysis, a research firm, projected sales grew to roughly $74bn on an annualised basis based on the new figures.
• That compares to more than US$100bn year end earlier forecasts as the Company acknowledges price competition with OpenAI and Chinese rivals, reduced distillation revenue and increased us of models by Meta and Microsoft.
• The $965bn Company is rallying interest ahead of the planned IPO later this year with valuation of ~US$2tn.

Shares in CoreWeave, an AI infrastructure Company, continue to fall with its debt trading at distressed levels.

• CoreWeave were down >15% yesterday and off further >6% this morning as investors go increasingly concerned over its ability to fund capex plans.
• The 9.625% 2032 bonds yielded 14.8% and the 9.75% 2031 notes about 14.9%, and the 2032 notes traded below 80 cents on the dollar.

Currencies

US$1.1216/eur vs 1.1194/eur previous. Yen 158.01/$ vs 158.38/$. SAr 16.555/$ vs 16.490/$. $1.325/gbp vs $1.325/gbp. 0.694/aud vs 0.698/aud. CNY 6.692/$ vs 6.693/$.

Dollar Index 102.07 vs 102.25 previous.

Economics

US – Inflation climbed at the fastest pace in five months in September with core inflation above expectations.

• Market-implied probability of an October rate rise increased to as high as 55% from ~20% before settling near 40%, although most forecasters still expect the Fed to hold at the 27–28 October meeting and raise rates in December.
• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee described the data as discouraging and warned that AI investment may be overheating the economy, while San Francisco Fed President Daly said further rises were likely but the timing was undecided.
• S&P and Nasdaq closed 1.1% and 1.9% down yesterday on a selloff in AI stocks following a hotter than expected inflation print.
• Further losses are seen in the futures markets with both indices down 0.3% and 1.2%
• Anthropic shared 3Q26 financial results that showed a slowdown in revenue growth with data coming in blow some estimates.
• South Korea’s Kospi Index fell 7.6% while chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. both sank more than 9%.
• CPI (mom%, Sep / Aug / Est): 0.6% / 0.4% / 0.6%
• CPI (yoy%, Sep / Aug / Est): 3.7% / 3.4% / 3.6%
• Core CPI (mom%, Sep / Aug / Est): 0.3% / 0.3% / 0.2%
• Core CPI (yoy%, Sep / Aug / Est): 2.6% / 2.4% / 2.5%

China

• New yuan loans YTD (Sep / Aug / Est): CNY11,520bn / CNY10,440bn / CNY11,465bn
• Aggregate financing YTD (Sep / Aug / Est): CNY27,460bn / CNY23,910bn / CNY27,250bn

Japan – Finance Minister Katayama warned she was prepared to intervene in the currency market again after the yen weakened to 158.95/US$ following the US CPI release.

• Katayama said the US and Japanese position was unchanged since their coordinated intervention in July.

UK – GDP unexpectedly expanded in August despite a rise in energy costs and high interest rates.

• Manufacturing was the main driver with services flat on the previous month.
• Computer programming, in particular, is reported to have significantly contributed as companies roll AI tools.
• A rate hike is priced in for November with a total of four over the next 12 months.
• GDP (mom%, Aug / Jul / Est): 0.1% / 0.4% / -0.1%
• GDP (3m/3m, Aug / Jul / Est): 0.7% / 0.5% (prev 0.4%) / 0.5%

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,143/oz vs US$4,157/oz previous

Gold ETFs 101.1moz vs 101.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,612/oz vs US$1,666/oz previous

Palladium US$1,119/oz vs US$1,128/oz previous

Silver US$56.4/oz vs US$59.3/oz previous

Silver ETFs 800.1moz vs 802.6moz previous

Rhodium US$9,250/oz vs US$9,350/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$14,303/t vs US$14,574/t previous

Aluminium US$2,976/t vs US$3,036/t previous

Nickel US$15,230/t vs US$15,575/t previous

Zinc US$3,681/t vs US$3,727/t previous

Lead US$1,888/t vs US$1,900/t previous

Tin US$49,925/t vs US$51,300/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$103.8/bbl vs US$105.6/bbl previous

Natural Gas €85.6/MWh vs €86.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $90.1/lb vs $90.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$90.0/t vs US$90.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$480.1/t vs US$479.7/t

HCC FOB Australia US$266.0/t vs US$267.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$149.3/t vs US$151.5/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$39,345/t vs US$39,345/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$111,099/t vs US$111,083/t

Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$15,914/t vs US$16,808/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,505/t vs US$1,565/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,045/t vs US$1,045/t

Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,845/mtu vs US$1,865/mtu

Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,775/mtu vs US$2,775/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$243/lb vs US$243/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.5/kg vs US$26.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$177/t vs US$177/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,952/t vs US$2,952/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,173/t vs US$1,173/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$4,375.0/kg vs US$4,325.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$450.0/kg vs US$450.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.0/lb vs US$33.5/lb

Company news:

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) 6.25p, Mkt Cap £4.2m – Work plan for Parys Mountain

• Anglesey Mining has described its plans to progress the Parys Mountain polymetallic project in Wales.
• Plans include the reassessment of historical drilling some of which “terminated within mineralisation” and other technical information and the development of “a systematic exploration drilling programme to test connections and extensions between the deposits defined to date within the broader Parys Mountain mineralised system”.
• The scope of any future drilling “remains subject to refinement, funding and the necessary approvals”.
• Additional technical work is expected to include:
  • Further engineering and metallurgical work and pursuing the necessary consents for the White Rock and the Engine Zone: and
  • Refining “geological understanding and testing resource growth potential around the NCZ and Garth Daniel”; as well as
  • “reviewing wider district targets”.
• Anglesey Mining is “assessing early dewatering and controlled access to the Morris Shaft … which] … could support geotechnical and hydrological investigation, bulk sampling, metallurgical testing and assessment of potential acid mine drainage”.
• Chief Executive, Andrew Fulton, described the plans as “designed to answer defined questions, reduce uncertainty and test opportunities for growth”.
• Currently, the Parys Mountain project hosts a ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resource of 16.06mt at an average grade of 0.98% copper, 1.33% zinc, 0.71% lead, 15g/t silver and 0.17g/t gold

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 413p, Mkt Cap £473m – Record 9M26 copper production as Demirli ramps up with FY26 guidance reiterated

• Anglo Asian reported 3Q26 production results at Gedabek and Demirli production complexes, Azerbaijan.
• Production:
  • 5.5kt copper (3Q25: 2.3kt) – 3.8kt Demirli / 1.7kt Gedabek
  • 6.8koz gold (3Q25: 6.8koz) – 5.6koz dore and 1.2koz concentrate
  • 53koz silver (3Q25: 42koz)
• 9M26 copper, gold and silver production at 14.4kt, 19.1koz and 146koz with copper accounting for ~70% of production at current spot prices.
• 3Q26 dore sales of 5.7koz at US$4,259/oz and concentrate sales of 29.0kdmt valued at US$80.5m (Demirli 19.3kt/US$50.1m; Gedabek 9.7kt/US$30.4m).
• Demirli plant ramp up ongoing with 1.0mt (+ 20%qoq) processed at 0.50% Cu, implying ~75% recoveries.
• Steady state production targeted for November.
• Gilar underground delivered 227kt at 1.40g/t Au and 1.43% Cu.
• Mining resumed at the Ugur open pit with 40kt at 0.29g/t Au mined during the quarter.
• Net cash fell to US$47.1m (US$56.5m cash, US$9.4m debt) from US$57.7m at Jun26.
• Outflow reflects US$30.1m working capital build with September invoices collected in October as well as $10m paid in respect of 2025 dividends and corporate taxes.
• Gold dore and copper concentrate inventory at US$27.0m as of Sep26 (Jun26: $28.9m)
• 2026 guidance reiterated:
  • 20-25kt copper, 26-30koz gold and 170-210koz silver
  • AISC of US$6,000-7,000/t Cu and US$1,500-1,800/oz Au.

Conclusion: Robust quarter with Demirli ramp up on course to hit steady production in November. 9M26 record copper production helped by Demirli Copper Mine contributing >60% of group copper production and just under 50% of total AuEq/CuEq (using st commodity prices). FY26 guidance reiterated.

*SP Angel acts as nomad to Anglo Asian Mining

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) 3,356p, Mkt Cap £35.2bn – Increased production Los Pelambres drives 7% increase in Q3 copper output

• Antofagasta reports a 7% in quarterly copper production during the 3 months to 30^th September to 151,900t at a net cash cost of US$1.38/lb bringing YTD production to 436,900t at a net cash cost of US$1.28/lb.
• The company attributes the rise in quarterly copper output to “higher output at Los Pelambres” with the rise in quarterly net cash costs reflecting “lower underlying costs offset by lower by-product credits”.
• “Production guidance for 2026 remains unchanged … in the range of 625,000–655,000 tonnes … [with] … Net cash cost guidance …unchanged at $1.15–1.35/lb”.
• Capital cost guidance for 2026 is intact at US$3.4bn.
• Copper production guidance for 2027 is in the range 630-690,000t “reflecting higher grades at Los Pelambres and lower grades at Centinela Concentrates”.
• At Los Pelambres, “production during Q3 2026 rose by 17% quarter-on-quarter to 79,300 tonnes, reflecting higher recoveries and the drawdown of approximately 7,000 tonnes of inventories accumulated during the prior period … offset in part by lower throughput, which related to the July 2026 weather event and the related temporary pause in operations”.
• The production increase results from the processing of an average 158,600t of ore daily at an average grade of 0.55% copper with average gold grades of 0.038g/t delivering 13,300oz and 0.018% molybdenum resulting in 2,000t of product.
• Net cash costs at Los Plambres “were 26% higher quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to lower molybdenum production, partially offset by lower underlying costs and higher realised pricing for molybdenum”.
• The 9 months net cash costs at Los Pelambres “of $0.86/lb were 2% lower due to higher realised pricing for gold and molybdenum, partially offset by lower by-product output and higher underlying cash costs”.
• Looking ahead, “Copper grades and throughput at Los Pelambres are both expected to increase in the fourth quarter”.
• Planned lower grades at Centinela and lower recovery rates during the quarter reduced copper concentrate production by ~5% to 32,300t of contained metal with cathode copper output of 14,500t “was broadly in line quarter-on-quarter … with higher recoveries offsetting lower grades”.
• Centinela’s quarterly net cash costs of US$0.96/lb were “9% lower on a quarter-on-quarter basis, as a result of higher output of molybdenum, offset by lower gold prices”.
• On a YTD basis, net cash costs at Centinela “were $0.78/lb, 11% below the prior year period, with higher by-product credits partially offset by an increase in underlying cash costs before by-product credits”.
• At the Antucoya mine, quarterly copper production of 18,800t brought YTD output to 55,800t “was 4% below the same period in 2025 … [at 58,100t] … reflecting lower grades and recoveries, offset by higher throughput”.
• Cash costs at Antucoya were US$2.70/lb for the quarter and US$2.98/lb YTD “principally reflecting lower recoveries and higher unit costs for key consumables such as diesel, electricity and sulphuric acid and the appreciation of the Chilean peso”.
• Zaldivar produced 7,100t of copper during the quarter at a cash cost of US$4.81/lb bringing YTD production to 24,100t at a cash cost of US$4.00/lb (2025 – 25,100t at a cost of US$3.41/lb).
• The company explains that lower grades underly the lower quarterly and YTD copper output at Zaldivar.
• CEO, Iván Arriagada, confirmed that “Construction activities across our major growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres are progressing well, and we have entered the final phases of each schedule, ahead of construction and commissioning activities completing in 2027”.
• He asserted that the projects “will deliver significant growth and strengthen the resilience of our portfolio, and we remain focused on completing each project in line with expectations”.
• Commenting on the copper market, Mr. Arriagada emphasised the “strong fundamentals … [where] … the combination of continued investment in energy infrastructure and digitalisation, together with supply constraints, provides a supportive backdrop, helping to reinforce the long-term outlook”.

Conclusion: Following a 7% quarterly rise in copper output, Antofagasta confirms its 2026 production, capital and operating cost guidance. Growth projects at Los Pelambres and Centinela remain on track for commissioning in 2027.

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 995p, Mkt Cap £1,579m – Robust Q3 production leaves 2026 production and cost guidance intact

• Atalaya Mining reports production of 13,967t of copper output during the 3 months to 30^th September (Q3 2025 – 12,123t and Q2 2026 – 3,493t).
• CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, described the quarterly production as “strong … [and said that Atalaya Mining expects] … production at the low end of the guidance range … [50-54,000t of copper] … while maintaining our cost guidance despite the impact of various conflicts on the prices of key consumables”.
• Quarterly production reflects the processing of 4.1mt of ore at an average grade of 0.40% copper at Proyecto Riotinto (Q3 2025 – 4.3mt at 0.38% copper).
• The company describes cost challenges from “geopolitical conflicts, including those in the Middle East and Ukraine-Russia … [which contribute to higher prices for] …  key consumables, such as diesel and explosives”.
• Atalaya Mining says that “Despite these pressures … [it] … continues to expect FY2026 Cash Costs and AISC to remain within the previously announced guidance ranges of US$2.60 – 2.90/lb and US$3.10 – 3.40/lb of payable copper, respectively”.
• Beyond Proyecto Riotinto, waste stripping of the San Dionisio deposit, which will provide higher grade ore to the Riotinto processing plant substituting for lower grades from the Cerro Colorado deposit, continued although “total waste mined of 3.1 million tonnes in Q3 2026 … was lower than planned due to delays in the relocation of a power line by the electricity supplier”.
• The company is also continuing to evaluate the plant modifications necessary to process “copper and polymetallic ores” from the San Antonio deposit which provides another potential high grade ore source for the Riotinto plant.
• “Surface preparation works continue at Proyecto Masa Valverde, while the start of access ramp development is expected to begin in the coming weeks … [while exploration is focussed on] … the copper-rich stockwork-style zones, which are expected to be amenable for processing at the existing Riotinto facilities”.
• The announcement confirms that the “Recent results … [of this work] … have been favourable and confirm the continuity and expansion of the high-grade mineralisation”.
• The company also highlights the recently announced European Commission designation of the Touro project as a ‘Critical’ raw materials project.

• Mr. Lavandeira said that this decision “reinforces Touro’s strategic importance to Europe’s future copper supply and should help to facilitate the completion of the environmental permitting process”.

• He also commented on the copper market where, he said, the “outlook … remains very robust, supported by solid demand and persistent supply challenges … [and where] … Atalaya is well-positioned to capitalise on favourable market conditions and advance its growth strategy”.

Conclusion: A strong production performance in Q3 leads Atalaya to confirm its expectation of full year production at the low end of the guidance range of 50-54,000t of copper with cash costs and AISC achieve the previously announced guidance ranges of US$2.60 – 2.90/lb and US$3.10 – 3.40/lb of payable copper.

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) SUSPENDED – Retail offer open for retail investors till 5pm today as part of major fundraise at 25p/s

• Serval Resources suspended under London Stock Exchange Capital Access Window.
• The company is raising a minimum of £6.5m at 25p/s.
• The Fundraise:
  • Total proceeds of £6.5m (gross) including c£3.8m (US$5m)  from Capital Drilling and associated partners.
  • Retail Offer: to be determined
• Tranche 1: The fundraising will be completed in two tranches with the first tranche consisting of Firm Placing Shares to be admitted to trading tomorrow.
• Tranche 2: The second tranche will consist of the issue of the Conditional Placing Shares, Subscription Shares and the Retail Offer Shares.
• The issue of the Conditional Fundraise Shares will be conditional upon shareholder approval at a General Meeting to be held in due course. The shares are expected to trade on 3 November.
• Serval has £1.6m of existing funds
• Funds will be used to:
  • accelerate exploration across its licenses in Namibia, Botswana and the Ivory Coast,
  • large-scale drilling programme in Namibia,
  • drilling programme in Botswana,
  • continued exploration work at Duékoué, Ivory Coast.
• The Company proposes to enter into a Drilling Services Agreement with a subsidiary of Capital Drilling in respect of the drilling programme at the Company’s Kaoko Basin project in Namibia.
• Capital Drilling, an existing significant shareholder, and associated partners, will invest in aggregate US$5 million under the Conditional Placing and Subscription.
• Serval Resources will use £3m (US$4m) of the proceeds to fund the drilling programme.
• Serval will issue 4,365,526 warrants + 401,445 additional report warrants to KCL Investments pursuant to the terms and conditions of the share purchase agreement with KCI. (See RNS on 31 March).
• Use of funds:
  • “The completion of the acquisition of Kalahari Copper Limited (“KCL”) gave Serval a substantial land position across two highly prospective but relatively under-explored copper districts: the Kaoko Basin in Namibia and the Kalahari Copper Belt in Botswana. Management has highlighted the geological similarities between these regions and the world-class Central African Copper Belt, suggesting the potential for significant sediment-hosted copper discoveries, with additional exposure to valuable by-products such as silver.
  • In Namibia, the Company has followed its strategy to carry out systematic fieldwork to confirm and define both existing and new Cu-Ag mineralisation occurrences. This has been achieved by a combination of geological mapping and sampling, with the Company recently announcing high-grade Cu-Ag sample results from ALS Laboratories across multiple prospects. The Fundraise is expected to allow Serval to accelerate its evaluation of this emerging copper region by funding a large-scale drilling campaign of ca. 20,000 metres, which it proposes to appoint Capital Drilling to conduct, and Capital Drilling, along with associated persons, are also participating in the Fundraise.  Given there is already historic drilling data on the Namibian projects from KCL, Serval has the opportunity to work towards a maiden mineral resource for the Kaoko Basin project in 2027.
  • In Botswana, Serval is focused on its two highest priority licences which are on strike to MMG Limited’s major Khoemacau operation. The Company’s approach here is to use a combination of geophysical techniques, backed up by soil sampling and other fieldwork, with the aim of establishing the more precise location of the expected mineralised contact. The Fundraise is expected to allow Serval to define targets by Q2 2027, with a maiden drilling programme of ca. 3,000 metres intended to be carried out in H2 2027 on the Sweet Thorn Pan and Somelo prospects.
  • In addition to its Namibian and Botswanan assets, Serval continues to maintain exposure to the Duékoué Project in Côte d’Ivoire through a joint venture and earn-in arrangement with La Minière de L’Eléphant SARL. The Company believes the project exhibits characteristics associated with iron oxide copper-gold (“IOCG”) or porphyry-style mineralisation systems, providing diversification beyond its sediment-hosted copper opportunities.”

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Serval Resources

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 24p, Mkt cap £166m – New presentation highlights high-tech and defense-related end uses for critical feedstock from Kasiya project in Malawi

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.2% of Sovereign Metals)

BUY, Target 72p

CLOCK FOR PDF

• Sovereign Metals have issued a new presentation on the Kasiya tungsten, graphite and rare earth deposit in Malawi.
• The presentation highlights the importance of feedstock from Kasiya in the manufacture of jet aircraft, AI, drones, robots, etc.
• The US is totally reliant on imports for titanium, natural graphite and heavy rare earths making non-Chinese controlled projects especially important to the US supply chain.
• US funds are looking to orientate feedstock from Tier 1 deposits like the Kasiya project towards the US and its allies for high-tech applications including critical defense infrastructure.
• The Rare Earth content within the Monazite at Kasiya is particularly significant due to its heavy rare earth content including Dysprosium, Yttrium, Terbium, Samarium and Gadolinium alongside NdPr.
• The Kasiya project is particularly simple in simple dry mining from surface with no drilling and blasting in the mining process.
• Processing uses no chemicals and produces no toxic waste products.
• Land is rehabilitated and improved as the soil and sand is replaced into the mining areas with a substantial improvement in agricultural yields.

Conclusion:  The world is seeing a very substantial rise in the production of drones, lasers, robots and missiles to replenish depleted stocks and to enable a substantial increase in manufacturing.

The critical raw materials need to be sourced from somewhere and there are very few new sources available to Western consumers.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals

South32 (S32 LN) 235p, Mkt Cap £11bn – Aluminium sale to Alcoa goes to a shareholder vote with more focus on copper/zinc

• South32 report the Chair and CEO addresses to today’s AGM, with the Alcoa sale going to a shareholder vote.
• The Company is selling its aluminium business to Alcoa for up to US$5.6bn, from the bauxite mine through to the smelters.
• The sale is due to complete in 2H FY27, leaving South32 focused on copper and zinc.
• The Company sees copper and zinc output rising 55% from projects already under construction.
• At Hermosa, the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project carries growth capex of ~US$3.3bn, with first production in 2H FY28.
• Taylor’s LOM rose 5 years to 33 years.
• At Sierra Gorda, a fourth grinding line is expected to lift copper equivalent output ~30% by 2031.
• The Company expects a simpler operating model to cut overheads by ~US$125m a year.
• FY26 underlying EBITDA $2.5bn, up 28% yoy, with underlying earnings $1bn, up 55% yoy.
• FY26 closed with net cash $283m, and $327m returned to shareholders ($292m dividends / $35m buy-backs).

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) 0.01p Mkt Cap £1.6m – Geophysical assessment at Reese Ridge, Nevada

• Sunrise Resources reports that the Canadian geophysical company, Geotech, will review and evaluate geophysical data from its Reese Ridge zinc/lead/silver project in Nevada and help identify drill targets.
• Executive Chairman, Patrick Cheetham, described the geological setting and mineralisation style of Reese Ridge as “characteristic of the Carbonate Replacement Deposit (CRD) Style of Mineralisation which can be both large and high-grade”.

• The area hosts iron-rich gossans which have “consistently returned anomalous zinc, lead and silver values, with assays of up to 6.8% zinc, 3.3% lead and 51g/t silver … [and where follow-up] … exploration identified a more subtle style of mineralisation hosted within altered limestone containing only sparse visible galena”.
• “Unlike the iron-rich gossans, these zinc-rich zones contain oxide and carbonate minerals that are difficult to recognise visually in the field, suggesting that significant mineralisation may previously have been overlooked”.

Conclusion: The geophysical work, which is expected to take 6-8 weeks and provide improved insights into the geological framework at Reese Ridge, should assist the planning of future exploration.

URU Metals* (URU LN) 2.6p, Mkt Cap £3.9m – Convertible loan repayment date extended to 31 December

• URU Metals report the Boothbay convertible loan repayment date extended to 31 December 2026, with no conversion before then.
• The US$500,000 loan converts at a 35% discount to the 5-day VWAP.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

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No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange

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