SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Monday 29th December 2025

Copper ($12,421/t) hits news highs on looming 2026 deficit and wider base metals rally

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Copper ($12,421/t) hits news highs on looming 2026 deficit and wider base metals rally

• Copper prices hit record highs over night, with LME prices jumping to $12,742/t before pulling back.
• COMEX futures have fallen 2.45% this morning, having rallied c.6% in the previous trading session.
• COMEX futures continue to trade at a premium to LME prices, reflecting sustained concerns over further tariff measures from the White House.
• This has moved c.400kt Cu into COMEX warehouses, reducing available supply in high-demand Asian regions.
• LME copper prices are now up 39% this year, fuelled by shortage concerns and sustained global demand.
• A strong GDP reading from the US last week boosted optimism over global growth going into 2026.
• Global economic growth forecasts are improving, and both corporate loans and high-yield bond yields are sliding, supporting growth expectations.
• However, we see supply concerns as supporting the market, with major mine disruptions throughout 2025.
• Copper is leading the wider base metals complex higher, with aluminium, zinc and lead up 16%, 3% and 2.2% ytd.
• A weaker dollar has also supported metals prices, with the dollar index down 9.3% ytd.

Gold ($4,468/oz) pulls back as precious metal volatility sees prices whipsaw in low liquidity trading

• Gold has bounced off recent record highs of $4,550/oz, down 1.44% this morning on wider precious metal weakness.
• Silver opened trading last night up 10%,, hitting $83/oz, but has subsequently pulled back 2.6%.
• Platinum and palladium have also been volatile, with the later sliding 12% this morning to $1,804/oz.
• The precious metals complex has seen extreme volatility over the Christmas period, as traders manage low liquidity and retail bets on supply deficits.
• Silver has been increasingly speculative, now up 151% over the last year and 32% over the past month.
• Calls for silver deficits are increasing, with bulls highlighting silver’s role in data centres and AI chip making.
• Chinese silver miner Hunan Silver jumped 10% overnight.
• Gold likely got caught up in the past fortnight’s precious metal frenzy, pushing through record highs before settling.
• Gold is up 5.7% over the past month, as sustained dollar weakness likely continued Central Bank reserve diversification supported the rally.
• Gold speculators have also increased positioning, with ETF inflows rising this month, pushing total holdings to 98.9moz, still some way off the 2020 and 2022 highs over 105moz.

Chinese lithium prices soar following year of oversupply as CATL February mine restart rumoured

• Chinese lithium carbonate prices rose to $16,510/t, whilst spodumene prices have jumped to $1,375/t SC6.
• Chines futures pared gains, closing down 8% amid whipsawing volatility.
• Mysteel reports limited spot trading activity as traders suspend purchasing activities into the new year.
• 2025 saw lithium prices suppressed by a ramp up of Chinese brine, spodumene and lepidolite operations into already well-stocked inventories.
• The end of 2025 has seen a major increase in BESS lithium demand, which has reduced domestic lithium inventories and increased the risk of deficits going forward.
• SMM expects EV sales to grow at 15% in 2026 globally, whilst ESS battery cell production is expected to grow between 30-40%.
• Lithium supply is expected to grow 30% in 2026.
• The market has been focused on the restart of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi, halted in August 2025.
• Chinese media has reported the mine may restart in February, following the Chinese New Year.
• The mine had previously been expected to restart in December and produces c.3% of global supply when fully operational.

Currencies

US$1.1774/eur vs 1.1797/eur previous. Yen 156.28/$ vs 155.801/$. SAr 16.706/$ vs 16.672/$. $1.348/gbp vs $1.352/gbp. 0.671/aud vs 0.671/aud. CNY 7.009/$ vs 7.014/$.

Dollar Index 98.02vs 97.88 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,475/oz vs US$4,484/oz previous 

Gold ETFs 98.9moz vs 98.8moz previous 

Platinum US$2,281/oz vs US$2,279/oz previous 

Palladium US$1,709/oz vs US$1,949/oz previous 

Silver US$76.0/oz vs US$71.3/oz previous 

Rhodium US$8,350/oz vs US$8,125/oz previous 

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,470/t vs US$12,195/t previous 

Aluminium US$2,968/t vs US$2,959/t previous 

Nickel US$15,920/t vs US$15,827/t previous 

Zinc US$3,110/t vs US$3,114/t previous 

Lead US$2,012/t vs US$1,996/t previous 

Tin US$42,855/t vs US$43,500/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$61.3/bbl vs US$62.6/bbl previous 

Natural Gas €28.4/MWh vs €27.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $81.4/lb vs $81.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.4/t vs US$104.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$460.8/t vs US$460.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$211.5/t vs US$212.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.5/t vs US$105.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$84,619/t vs US$83,944/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$16,510/t vs US$14,583/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,375/t vs US$1,240/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$978/mtu vs US$958/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$101/lb vs US$99/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$260/t vs US$260/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,120/t vs US$1,117/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$360.0/t vs US$360.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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