SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Monday 26th January 2026

Gold scales new highs as Chinese general accused of spying for US

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Australia Day today

• Celebrating the 1788 landing of the First Fleet and raising of the Union Flag of Great Britain at Sydney Cove, on the southern shore of Sydney Harbour.

Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) – Diamond market weakness tempts a move into copper exploration

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – MRE and Economic study for the expanded Boland rare earths project targeted for later this year

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) – Operating plans for Raglan

Greatland Resources (GGP LN) – Substantially increased drilling underway at Telfer to help extend mine life

Harena Rare Earths* (HREE LN) – Ampasindava PFS confirms long life IAC heap leach operation

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – High-grade gold seen in exploration around the Bill’s Luck Gold Mine in Zimbabwe

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Further assay results from MB01-N

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – BUY – MRE imminent at Pepas following final infill drilling

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) – Molaoi drilling resumes

Thor Explorations (THX LN) – Two phase Douta PFS outlines 80kozpa, 13 year operation

Gold ($5,096/oz) scales new highs as Chinese general accused of spying for US

• Gold has soared past $5,000/oz amid a strong rally across the precious metals spectrum.
• Silver has hit new record highs of $110/oz, up 7% this morning, whilst platinum and palladium have rallied 5% overnight.
• The move is being supported by a weaker dollar, which was hit by a suspected coordinated intervention in the Yen between the US and Japan overnight.
• Japan: a weaker yen, rising government debt and rising bond yields, causing local investors to buy gold and silver to protect against currency and market moves.
  • The Yen hit a 2-month high, whilst the Euro also rose to four-month highs as the Japanese PM stated the government would take ‘necessary steps’ against speculative market moves.
  • The unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade is pushing ‘risk-off’ investment and buying safe-haven assets.
  • When BoJ raises rates this strengthens the Yen reducing liquidity and increased volatility in Japan and elsewhere.
  • Japan holds >$1.1tn of US Treasury bonds
• The dollar is also weakening ahead of a potential new Fed Chair announcement this week.
• Gold is likely being supported partly by concerns over Fed independence, with markets fearing Trump appointing an overly-dovish replacement for Powell.
• Fed: Markets have recently moved Trump ally Rick Rieder to favourite for the job, applying a 47% chance to his success.
  • Rieder, CIO of Blackrock’s fixed income division, has recently stated that rates are ;still too high for the housing market to recover its buoyancy,’ suggesting he may lean into Trump’s dovishness.
• China – property market remains on life support with developers continuing to collapse
  • China’s top general Zhang Youxia has been accused of giving the US China’s nuclear secrets.
  • This has the potential to further aggravate tensions between the two global superpowers, already strained following tariff warring and the US’ intervention in Venezuela.

• Iran: the potential for war between Iran and Israel / the US is high.
  • Iranian people will be converting their Iranian Rials into gold to protect against inflation and outright currency collapse.
• Quantum Vulnerability: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency holders switching to Gold

• Quantum computing may be able to break the ECDSA ‘Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm’ which secures Bitcoin wallets enabling hackers to run off with their crytyo.
• Estimates suggest ~20-50% of all Bitcoin ~4-10m coin may be vulnerable to future quantum attacks, particularly in older wallets.

• Investment: accounted for 41% of demand for gold in Q3 2025 (World Gold Council)

Conclusion: Gold is being driven by a number of major themes: escalating geopolitical tensions between China and the US, heightened concerns over the Fed’s independence and a continued weakening of the US dollar. This is coinciding with expanding G7 fiscal deficits, constrained by above-target inflation and increased defence spend requirements. Accusations of Chinese generals spying for the US may push China to further accumulate gold reserves as they, and other BRIC countries, diversify their foreign holdings away from dollar assets.

Gold names we like:

• Anglo Asian Mining* (top-class mine builders in Azerbaijan funding longer-term copper growth story)
• Kavango+ (today’s drill results from the Bill’s Luck mine in Zimbabwe look good and set the mine for further expansion)
• Kefi Minerals* (Finalising financing in Ethiopia): CLICK FOR PDF
• Orosur Mining* (early-stage exploration in Colombia with high-grade MRE due before January): CLICK FOR PDF

• Turaco Gold+(Cote d’Ivoire development story adding ounces, PFS due mid-2026)
• Minerals260 (Tim Goyder-backed Australian development project)
• WIA Gold+ (Namibian development story, 3moz open pit led by ex-Centamin/Predictive team, FID expected before year-end)
• Landore Resources (Fresh management team currently optimising the BAM Gold Deposit, Ontario)
• Rio2+ (HL development story in Chile targeting 400kozpa AuEq long-term)
• Tolu Minerals (Restarting production at Tolukuma mine in PNG to fund widespread regional exploration programme)
• C3 Metals (Drilling for gold in Jamaica alongside copper porphyry targeting)
• Enegex Ltd+ (Ex-Predictive team conducting greenfield exploration in Cote d’Ivoire)

*SP Angel acts as either Nomad/Broker or Both. +An SP Angel analyst holds shares

Africa – high gold prices to lift economic activity across Africa

• High gold prices are turbocharging small-scale artisanal mining across Africa
• The price rise will enable many small-scale artisanal miners to buy bicycles, motorbikes, smartphones and maybe even Starlink connections for their villages
• The broad distribution of wealth will help millions
• Artisanal & Small-Scale Mining produces ~20% of global gold supply with >70% thought to be undeclared and allot of metal passing through Dubai.
• African artisanal gold is estimated at 321-474t across Africa ($55-82bn)
• West Africa: Some estimates reckon ~50% of regional production in West Africa is artisanal
• Ghana artisanal gold ~35% est. of the nation’s gold at 66t in 2024 = $11bn into the local community

Conclusion: Artisanal miners will be ramping up production all over West Africa so expect a pickup in economic activity in the region soon.

Iran – South Africa (eg the ANC) abstains on UN Human Rights Council vote to investigate Iran’s clampdown on protesters.

• The UN Human Rights Council is voting on a resolution condemning Iran’s violent repression of protesters and calling for an investigation into the regime’s actions.

• Time Magazine estimates some 30,000 people may have been killed in Iranian protests.
• Iran International puts the estimate at >36,500
• Le Monde confirms >5,000 killed during Iran protests
• Israel and the US appear to be preparing to either strike or retaliate against further action against Iran.

Mkango* – BBC Radio 4 at 6:16am – CEO, Will Dawes on Mkango and UK Critical Minerals strategy

• https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/b006qj9z

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Kavango

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel’s John Meyer

IG TV – Copper, Silver and the New Commodities Cycle | Commodity Markets Weekly:  https://youtu.be/mdU5EEjc3Z8?si=BjTihCKKoeKlYHYn

LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls: – SP Angel ranked No1 for Precious Metals in the 2025

 Currencies

US$1.1842/eur vs 1.1739/eur previous. Yen 153.98/$ vs 158.39/$. SAr 16.036/$ vs 16.160/$. $1.365/gbp vs $1.349/gbp. 0.691/aud vs 0.685/aud. CNY 6.957/$ vs 6.964/$.

Dollar Index 97.22 vs 98.42 previous.

Economics

US – President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if it follows through with a trade deal with China.

• “If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.” Trump wrote.
• Canada argued the deal reached with China earlier was not a “free trade deal” but rather a resolution on other tariff issues.
• Trump said China would use a deal with Canada to evade US tariffs.
• “If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken.”

Odds of a partial government shutdown by the end of the week are on the rise.

• Democratic US senators vowed to oppose a funding package that includes appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security.
• The House approved the funding package last Thursday.
• Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate but the package would need 60 votes in favour.

Japan – The yen extended its gains on Monday on expectations that authorities may intervene to arrest the slide in the currency.

• PM Sanae Takaichi warned the market on Sunday that authorities are watching the situation closely and may address speculative and highly abnormal movements.
• The currency is trading sub 154 mark, pulling back after touching over 159 on Friday morning.
• Sharp yen appreciation saw the US$ index hitting its lowest since September.
• On Friday, the NY Federal Reserve is reported to have been checking USDJPY rates with dealers suggesting a potential dual US-Japan market intervention.

Precious metals:

Gold US$5,096/oz vs US$4,922/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.3moz vs 100.0moz previous

Platinum US$2,880/oz vs US$2,619/oz previous

Palladium US$2,084/oz vs US$1,899/oz previous

Silver US$108.8/oz vs US$97.8/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 844.4moz vs 846.7moz previous

Rhodium US$10,325/oz vs US$10,300/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,126/t vs US$12,867/t previous

Aluminium US$3,186/t vs US$3,136/t previous

Nickel US$18,755/t vs US$18,575/t previous

Zinc US$3,297/t vs US$3,226/t previous

Lead US$2,033/t vs US$2,023/t previous

Tin US$53,520/t vs US$53,400/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$65.7/bbl vs US$64.6/bbl previous

• US Henry Hub prices have now doubled in the last week after winter storms descended across the US mid and eastern states over the weekend, reportedly causing ~10% of domestic natural gas production to be forced offline and gas flows to LNG export hubs to fall.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count rose 1 to 544 units last week (-32 or -5% y/y), with oil rigs up 1 to 411 units (-61 y/y) and gas rigs flat at 122 units (+23 y/y), with Canada also adding 5 rigs to 231 units (-14 or -6% y/y).

Natural Gas €41.8/MWh vs €37.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $88.8/lb vs $86.5/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.6/t vs US$104.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.1/t vs US$465.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$233.0/t vs US$231.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$112.8/t vs US$112.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$96,669/t vs US$96,574/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,646/t vs US$23,048/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,265/t vs US$2,235/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,248/mtu vs US$1,218/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$112/lb vs US$112/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,128/t vs US$1,127/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$367.5/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

EV & Battery news

Federal judge rules Trump administration unlawfully suspended EV charging infrastructure program

• A federal judge has ruled that the Trump administration unlawfully suspended a federal EV charger infrastructure program that had been created under President Biden’s 2021 infrastructure law.
• The program was introduced under the Biden administration and was designed to build out EV charging stations across the US with the goal of improving access for drivers.
• One of Trump’s first actions in his new term as President was to suspend  the program, instead promoting policies to boost sales of gas-powered vehicles.
• The court found that the suspension violated the statutory requirements of the infrastructure law because the administration paused the program without proper authority.
• The decision may require the government to resume the program’s rollout and revisit how it changed the rules governing funding and deployment of EV chargers nationwide.

Company News:

Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) 0.33p, Mkt Cap £3.7m – Diamond market weakness tempts a move into copper exploration

1. Botswana Diamonds reports that it has bee awarded eight prospecting licences covering ~7,000km² of northwestern Botswana.
2. The company says that its analysis shows the area is favourable for copper mineralisation “with additional potential for gold and other critical minerals”.
3. Describing its reasons for branching out into copper exploration, Botswana Diamonds says that they reflect “the current weakness in the diamond market, combined with the strong and growing demand for copper and other energy-transition metals”.
4. Noting that “There is already significant copper activity in Botswana …[today’s announcement says that Botswana Diamonds has had discussions] … with potential partners regarding a joint venture to advance exploration across the newly awarded copper-prospective licences”.
5. In the meantime, it plans “close interval geophysical and geochemical surveys designed to define drill targets”.
6. Chairman, John Teeling, confirmed that Botswana Diamonds’ mission “was and still is diamonds. But the market environment for diamonds is poor at present. These market conditions will improve, and this approach allows us to continue progressing the business as a mining company while remaining committed to diamonds over the longer term”.

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.25p, Mkt Cap £40m –MRE and Economic study for the expanded Boland rare earths project targeted for later this year

• Cobra Resources reports that, following receipt of the necessary documents for the transfer of Tri-Star Group’s exploration licences, announced in May 2025, it plans to drill priority targets at Head and Gillespie.
• The targets are close to the company’s Boland rare earths project and are understood to host “large target areas of paleochannel hosted REEs within geological formations that are amenable to in situ recovery” – a similar geological setting to that at the Boland project.
• Drilling at the Head target is expected during March/April following work at Boland in late February and is expected to lead to mineral resource estimation in June/July and an ‘Economic Scoping Study’ in Juy/August.
• Managing Director, Rupert Verco, affirmed Cobra Resources’ commitment to “defining the best resource by not only targeting grade, but geological attributes that will enable productive and cost-efficient controlled aquifer in situ recovery”.
• He said that “Having the new tenements in our hands is an important milestone, enabling us to better control future workstreams”.

Conclusion: The company is planning further drilling, including on recently acquired additional tenements, leading to a resource estimate and a scoping study later this year

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) 0.36, Mkt Cap £12m – Operating plans for Raglan

• ECR Minerals, which earlier this month announced a £1.5m fundraising to develop its Raglan alluvial project in central Queensland, has now outlined its project development plan for the project.
• Areas for initial trenching have been identified “to determine where gold grades are highest before progressing upstream across the property”.
• “In parallel, ECR will re-analyse previously worked ground, particularly at deeper levels, where the Board believes – consistent with outcomes at the nearby Blue Mountain Project – that recoverable gold remains in situ”.
• During the early stage of production, “the operating team will assess and optimise the configuration of mining equipment, particularly the wash plant … to maximise daily throughput while maintaining a high level of gold recovery”.
• Initial objectives are to assess whether Raglan can replicate the “recovery rate of 91.7% gold into 0.40% of the mass” shown in test results from Blue Mountain.
• Today’s announcement expresses the Board’s view that “Raglan’s anticipated operating parameters are consistent with other producing alluvial mines in Queensland, where commercial production is achieved even at relatively modest grades, particularly in the current gold price environment”.

Greatland Resources (GGP LN) 710p, Mkt Cap £4.7bn – Substantially increased drilling underway at Telfer to help extend mine life

• Last week, Greatland Resources reported that it had completed over 54,000m of expansion and resource conversion drilling at its Telfer mine in WA during the 3 months to 31^st December bringing the H1 total for FY 2026 to almost 108,000m.
• Over the full year to 30^th June 2026, the company plans a total of 240,000m, which is more than double previous rates of around 80-110,000m per year.
• A sixth underground diamond drilling rig “is expected to arrive in February 2026” to help test the West Dome Underground target and “Three reverse circulation (RC) rigs continued drilling throughout the quarter with a relatively even split between growth and conversion drilling”.
• The drilling is focussed on three expansion targets at:
  • The West Dome Open Pit; and
  • The West Dome Underground; as well as
  • The Main Dome Underground
• Drilling of the West Dome Open Pit target focussed on the ‘Stage 7’ extension “of the existing Stage 7 cutback towards the north … which is expected to provide Telfer’s baseload ore feed for FY27 and FY28” and on the extension of the “current Stage 2 towards the south, east and west”.
• The announcement confirmed that the ‘Stage 7’ extension drilling “was completed during the quarter, with drill capacity shifting to predominately concentrate on the southern Stage 2 Extension which will remain a focus for much of the March 2026 quarter”.
• Among the highlights of the ‘Stage 7’ area drilling, the company highlights intersections including:
  • A 35m wide intersection at an average grade of 4.8g/t gold and 0.30% copper from a depth of 273m in hole WR28748; and
  • A 36m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.0g/t gold and 0.24% copper from a depth of 166m in hole WR40079; and
  • A 20m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.6g/t gold and 0.07% copper from a depth of 58m in hole WR39554.
• Highlights of the ‘Stage 2’ drilling include:
  • A 22m wide intersection at an average grade of 2.9g/t gold and 0.33% copper from a depth of 168m in hole WR24227; and
  • A 38m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.1g/t gold and 0.27% copper from a depth of 156m in hole WR24226; and
  • Another 38m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.6g/t gold and 0.07% copper from a depth of 28m in hole WR27595.
• Increased drilling density of the West Dome Underground target has “improved understanding … with three mineralised domains now confirmed: a broad sub-vertical Western Stockwork Corridor (WSC), flanked by the extensive Western Limb and Eastern Limb high grade shoots hosted within the Lower Limey Unit (LLU), an important geological horizon for gold-copper mineralisation at Telfer”.
• Results from the Western Limb confirm over 700m strike extent of mineralisation “averaging 10m wide and over 100m down dip to date, and remains open to the north and south” with highlighted results ranging over intersection widths of up to 30m and with grades of up to 9g/t gold and up to ~0.5% copper.
• Eastern Limb drilling has defined mineralisation “over 500m in strike, 100m dip extents and averaging 10m true width” with intersection widths ranging from around 5m up to almost 50m at grades ranging up to almost 5g/t gold and 0.4% copper.
• At the Main Dome Underground target, drilling “has been focused on near term extension opportunities and has successfully confirmed multiple near mine extensions such as A Reef, Tarkin (LLU), Rey extensions and the Eastern Stockwork Corridor (ESC) that have been drilled to a mine ready status and delivered to the operations team”.
• Among the results highlighted from the ~7,600m drilled in 86 holes at the Main Dome Underground target during the quarter the announcement highlights:
  • A 17m wide intersection at an average grade of 3.1g/t gold and 0.09% copper from a depth of 28m in hole MUC4540093; and
  • A 4.0m wide intersection at an average grade of 8.9g/t gold and 0.59% copper from a depth of 34m in hole MUC4540090; and
  • A 22.1m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.8g/t gold and 0.31% copper from a depth of 28m in hole MUC4540096; and
  • A 49.8m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.2g/t gold and 0.07% copper from a depth of 49m in hole MUC4540086,
• Drilling has also investigated more distal targets including the ‘South East Hub’ around 25km SE of the mine including “three known deposits (Big Tree, Dolphy and Ironclad) that were historically reported as Mineral Resources by Telfer’s previous owner Newcrest Mining Limited, but have not been declared as Mineral Resources by Greatland until adequate technical evaluation is conducted”.

Conclusion: Greatland Gold is increasing its drilling in and around the Telfer mine with 240,000m planned during FY 2026 as it looks for opportunities to expand the resource inventory and extend the mine life from areas which are relatively close to existing mine infrastructure.

Harena Rare Earths* (HREE LN) 2.2p, Mkt Cap £11m – Ampasindava PFS confirms long life IAC heap leach operation

• The Company completed PFS on the Ampasindava Ionic Clay Rare Earth Project located in north eastern Madagascar.
• The study compiled by the Company with technical input from SGS envisages a heap leaching operation to process adsorption ionic clay mineralisation (AIC).
• PFS highlights include:
  • 88mt treated over 20y LOM
  • Low waste strip ~0.15x
  • Low cost “free dig” contractor mining of clay ores (ie no drilling/blasting)
  • Heap leaching operation with REE recovered using agglomeration of ROM and ion-exchange based elution process with eluants such as sodium chloride and ammonium sulphate
  • 5mtpa plant treating 1,525ppm material
  • MREC final product ~6.7ktpa (60% TREO)
  • Annual TREO production capacity 4.0ktpa incl 1.7ktpa NdPr and 42% MREO (ie NdPrTbDy)
  • MREO account for 93% of total revenues
  • Individual recoveries applied to TREOs with average around ~53%
  • Met work completed by SGS and other consultants over several years of testing including at least two bulk sample programmes
  • Opex ~$31.3/ore and $38.5/kg TREO
  • Power provided by on site diesel generators combined with solar power
  • Development capex US$142m
  • Sustaining capex US$19m
  • Corporate tax rate and royalty rate 20% and 5%
  • Consensus pricing used for an average US$63/kg TREO post 75% payability (~$84/kg TREO pre)
  • Pre tax NPV10 and IRR $344m and 34%
  • Post tax NPV10 and IRR $250m and 30%
  • Payback 4y
• Alternative pricing scenarios include:
  • AI based scenario (AI applications used to scrape web publicly available REO pricing forecasts; higher pricing assumed in later years reflected in higher NPV but lower IRR)
    • Post tax NPV10 and IRR US$464m and 27%
  • Ampas Plus scenario (base case adjusted for a 10% reduction in opex and capex)
    • Post tax NVP10 and IRR US$327m and 36%
• MRE (2023, SGS, 500ppm COG) stand at
  • 226.5mt at 863ppmm TREO including 186ppm MREO in Measured and Indicated
  • 472.0mt at 870ppm TREO including 189ppm MREO in Inferred
• No reserves are estimated on the Project.
• PFS designed to support conversion from Permit Research license to a Permit Exploitation license.
• The plan is to progress to permitting and construction of on-site Proof of Concept (POC) demonstration plant to further de-risk the project ahead of FID and funding.
• POC to be used to confirm operating parameters of the process and leaching agents, engineering and environmental work and further economic assessment.
• The process is expected to take up to 12 months or more depending on results.
• Demo plant is estimated to cost US$11.5m
• Preliminary development schedule includes:
  • POC licensing 1Q26
  • POC results 2Q27
  • FID 4Q27

Conclusion: The PFS materially advances the Ampasindava Project highlighting modest upfront capex for a heap leaching operation generating $250m and 30% in post tax NPV10 and IRR. Near term value catalysts include execution on the POC workstream, critical to confirming metallurgy and product quality ahead of FID targeted for late 2027.

*SP Angel acts as Broker for Harena

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.67p, Mkt Cap £25m – High-grade gold seen in exploration around the Bill’s Luck Gold Mine in Zimbabwe

• Kavango report an impressive series of high-grade gold results in exploration around the Bill’s Luck Gold Mine in Zimbabwe.
• Drilling to define a maiden MRE ‘Mineral Resource Estimate’ shows meaningful intersections of gold on the Main Reef at Bill’s Luck.
• So far 7,714m have been drilled with the first 4,158m of diamond drilling now assayed and a further 3,556m of reverse circulation drill chippings being processed.
• The reverse circulation drill results will be released next week and used for the MRE.
• Drilling also tested and intersected further “reefs” in both the hanging wall and footwall.
• Results from surface and underground diamond drilling show:
  • 19.24g/t over 1.50m from 55.00m (including 64.12g/t over 0.24m and 23.13g/t over 0.50m)
  • 41.28g/t over 1.05m from 44.25m (including 125.14g/t over 0.34m)
  • 7.68g/t over 3.29m from 63.58m (including 2.92g/t over 0.51m, 26.26g/t over 0.82m and 2.12g/t over 0.71m)
  • 3.26g/t over 3.28m from 16.00m (including 8.58g/t over 1.00m and 5.10g/t over 0.28m)
    • 4.79g/t over 1.67m from 43.33m (including 12.40g/t over 0.34m and 3.63g/t over 1.00m)
  • 106.05g/t over 1.16m from 42.04m (including 223.78g/t over 0.54m)
  • 5.70g/t over 1.14m from 202.36m (including 9.06g/t over 0.45m)
  • 2.80g/t over 12.00m from 135.00m (including 8.58g/t over 0.30m, 22.04g/t over 0.77m and 10.08g/t over 0.5m)
  • 3.32g/t over 3.50m from 30.00m (including 7.31g/t over 1.00m and 4.24g/t over 1.01m)
  • 4.86g/t over 6.96m from 207.04m (including 24.47g/t over 0.90m from 207.34m)
• Production: Kavango is looking to commission a 50tph CIP plant shortly and increase capacity to 60t/d shortly.
• Management plan to scale this up to 250tpd with a long-term target of 500-1,000tpd on further development.
• The Main Shaft is expected to increase ore production to 3,500t/d by trial plant conditioning with new headgear enabling the shaft to move to 70t/d.
• Gold production could increase to ~15,000-30,000oz pa on a two shift, five day a week production cycle at 500-1,000tpd assuming 2.55g/t and a 90% recovery rate.
• Royalty: Gold miners are required to sell their gold to the Fidelity Gold Refinery run by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe.
• Medium scale gold miners appear to receive 90% of the spot gold price on gold sales with 70% paid on US dollars and 30% paid in ZiG.
• The ZiG has been uncharasterically stable trading at around 25.62 to 26.36 to the USD on 1^st January.
• Geology: Gold mineralisation at Bill’s Luck is structurally and hydrothermally controlled, predominantly occurring within and along the margins of these shear zones.
  • “Alteration is characterised by quartz-sericite-chlorite assemblages with disseminated sulphides, often vein-controlled and associated with syntectonic quartz-sulphide veins.
  • Zones of higher vein density and alteration coincide with areas of stronger deformation, with quartz boudinage, pressure shadows, and mylonitic veins serving as key mineral traps. Late stage mineralised veins also crosscut the earlier mylonitic fabric, indicating prolonged and possibly multi-phase mineralisation.
  • The structural complexity, combined with the presence of high-strain domains, linking shear structures, and favourable vein-hosting environments, makes the Bill’s Luck area a high-potential target for structurally-controlled gold exploration within a dextral transpressional regime.
  • Bill’s Luck Mine produced around 17,000oz of gold grading around 7.7g/t between 1916 and 1950 with limited, small-scale mining since. “

Conclusion: These results are very much better than see in previous results last July and demonstrate the scale up towards 15,000-30,000oz looks achievable.

While is difficult to forecast run-of-mine ore grade the results suggest that maintenance of the 2.55g/t seen in the stockpile last July should be reasonably achievable.

*The SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.34p, Mkt Cap £17m – Further assay results from MB01-N

• Oriole reports assay results from their MB01-N drilling programme, now 70% complete.
• The Company reports highlight assays of:
  • MBDD027: 2m at 6.6g/t Au from 52m, 7m at 0.6g/t Au from 73m, 15m at 0.73g.t Au from 107m, 16m at 2.5g/t Au from 152m
  • MBDD028: 17m at 0.6g/t Au from 55m
  • MBDD029: 2m at 1.5g/t Au from 128m
  • MBDD030: 2m at 0.91g/t Au from 128m, 3m at 0.74g/t Au from 140m
• Hole MBDD027 is reported 100m along strike of hole MBDD026.
• 2,000m over 10 holes have been drilled to date.
• A scissor hole is nearing completion to the east to assess structures identified in holes MBDD032 on the same line.
• Management states mineralisation has been confirmed to 160m vertical depth.
• MB01-N has an exploration target of 15-20mt at 0.77-0.94g/t Au for 370-605koz.

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 40p, Mkt Cap £151m – MRE imminent at Pepas following final infill drilling

BUY: Target price under review

• Orosur reports quarterly results and provides an update on going exploration and development activity.
• The Company reports a cash balance of $14.9m as of today, following an upsized C$20m private placement in September.
• In Colombia, Orosur expects to deliver a maiden Pepas NI-43-101 compliant MRE by the end of January.
• At El Cedro, an extensive geochemical survey has been completed over 25m intervals, outlining a potentially substantial gold-bearing system.
• In Argentina, a 3,000m drill programme is due for completion in early 2026, with assays expected soon.
• In Nigeria, the Company has impaired its lithium assets as it focuses on LATAM exploration.

Conclusion: Orosur reports a healthy cash balance of c.$15m which leaves it well-funded for a busy exploration and development programme. Management reiterates plans to deliver a maiden MRE for Pepas in the next few days. We see this as a major catalyst for Orosur, derisking the Pepas high-grade, low strip gold deposit. Pepas anchors our Orosur valuation, and we previously outlined the potential for a low-cost toll-treating operation taking advantage of the high-grade, low-strip nature of the expected economic deposit. We see the real prize at Orosur in the wider regional exploration potential at Anza. Drilling at El Cedro is planned to target the large-scale anomalous gold zones, and we are exciting for initial assays from El Pantano in Argentina, where the company is targeting low sulphidation epithermal mineral systems.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) 0.16p, Mkt Cap £15m – Molaoi drilling resumes

• Rockfire Resources confirms the resumption of drilling at its Molaoi zinc exploration project in Greece following the Christmas/New Year break.
• The company has now completed the fourth hole of the campaign (HMO-011) at a depth of 250.10m and confirms the hole intersected “Several narrow, mineralised intervals … in line with our expectations from resource modelling”.
• HMO-011 was “drilled in the very south of the resource and confirms that mineralisation continues and remains open towards the south … [and today’s announcement confirms that selected core] … will shortly be sent to the laboratory”.
• Assay results from hole HMO-010 “are awaited”.
• In addition to the drilling, hydrological and ecological studies are underway “prior to any planned mining activity commencing”.
• CEO, David Price confirmed that “ Drilling is progressing well … [and] … is expected … [to] … continue throughout much of this calendar year”.
• The current ‘Inferred’ resource estimate at Molaoi is 15.0 million tonnes @ 7.26% Zn, 1.75% Pb and 39.50g/t Ag and the current drilling is also expected to quantify the germanium content of what the company describes as Europe’s only germanium resource which the company has previously described as “one of only two quoted germanium resources globally”.

Conclusion: Drilling has restarted at Molaoi and is expected to continue for the majority of 2026.

Thor Explorations (THX LN) 96p, Mkt Cap £605m – Two phase Douta PFS outlines 80kozpa, 13 year operation

• Nigerian gold producer Thor Exploration report PFS and updated MRE results for the Douta Gold Project in Senegal.
• The company reports 36mt at 1.03g/t Au in reserves for 1.2moz (318koz oxides, 205koz transitional and 690koz fresh).
• The open pit operation holds a LOM of 13 years, comprising:
  • CIL oxide circuit, for average annual production of 103koz over four years
  • Primary ore phase using CIL circuit and suspension roaster for 61kozpa over 7.8 years
• Producing 1moz at average feed grade of 1.03g/t Au.
• Plant will treat 4mtpa of oxide ore over the first four years and stage two will treat 2.4mtpa of fresh ore.
• Phase 1 &2 CAPEX of $254m and $60m respectively, with $53m of sustaining CAPEX.
• LOM AISC guided at $1,890/oz ($3.2/t mining cost, $47.4/t ore processing).
• Post-tax NPV5 using $3,500/oz of $633m for 61% IRR, increasing to $1.1bn at $4,500/oz.
• Thor is targeting first production from Douta in early 2028, and plans to order long-lead items and award EPC contracts by 1H26.
• Company plans to fund Douta from cash reserves and project financing.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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