SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Monday 20th July 2026

Gold – Traders watch the Fed after US-Iran attacks

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Improving grades at the Blanket mine keep full year production guidance on track

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) – Transfer of loan to potential Indian offtaker

EQ Resources (EQR AU) – Shares jump 34% as Andrew Forrest buys 16.8% stake from Oaktree Capital

Panthera Resources (PAT LN) – Progress on US$1.58bn claim against the Republic of India on Bhukia gold project

Resolution Minerals (RML AU) – Idaho project recognised by US Government under scheme to support critical minerals development

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY – Project funding discussions advance ahead of permitting and FID

South32 (S32 LN) – Production above FY26 guidance in June quarter

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Acquisition of copper/silver/gold project in Nevada

Gold ($4,006/oz) – Traders watch the Fed after US-Iran attacks

• Gold held around $4,000/oz after falling more than 2% last week
• The US and Iran stepped up attacks over the weekend, with Tehran saying the ceasefire has effectively ended.
• Brent jumped above $90/bbl after strikes on a Kuwaiti oil facility and ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Markets now expect at least one Fed rate hike by year-end because of higher energy prices.

Tungsten APT prices soar to $3,000-3,279/mtu

• The price really depends on your ability to source tungsten APT, the source material for tungsten products and metal.
• Tungsten prices are showing at $3,000-3,050/mtu in Rotterdam (Asianmetal.com)
• Tungsten prices are showing at $1,700-1,710/mtu FOB China (Asianmetal.com)
• China has authorised just 15 firms to export tungsten with buyers needing to prove their tungsten will not be used for military end uses.
• Enforcement is tougher on Japan due to political issues
• Two events hit tin and tungsten production in recent years causing both markets to enter structural deficits.
• Tungsten is mined with tin in most mines with Indonesia cutting down informal and illegal tin mining in recent months.
• Myanmar, saw widespread closure of its tin mines in 2023 with mines slowly reopening on renewed licenses and after dewatering.
• Myanmar forced the closure of mines in 2023 as it moved towards more state-control overhauled and overhauled the licensing system.
• For further info see Guardian Metal Resources video on tungsten and its Pilot Mountain mine: https://invest.investorshub.com/innovationreport/

Global AI capex is set to reach $1tn in the next 12m including expenditure in grid technology, refrigeration and transition metals.

• Copper demand is expected to rise by 2mt by 2030 on data centre growth (Bloomberg Intelligence).

Apollo Global Management, Chief Economist Torsten Slok sees US GDP >2%

• 1% – AI and related expenditure,
• 0.9% – The One Big Beautiful Bill tax refunds,
• 0.3% – reshoring from China and other areas,

Half of the S&P is made up of infotech plus Google, Meta, Alphabet etc..

• 15% of all new corporate debt is linked to AI with 50% of all new debt issuance related to AI.
• Some see the financing of the AI roll-out as looking increasingly like a credit driven real estate bubble than a technology bubble.
• Similar to the Railway Mania of the 1840s in the UK where rail financing accounted for up to 7% of UK GDP.

Currencies

US$1.1448/eur vs1.1445/eur previous.Yen 162.35/$ vs162.20/$.SAr 16.497/$ vs16.468/$.$1.348/gbp vs$1.346/gbp.0.700/aud vs0.699/aud.CNY 6.772/$ vs6.776/$.

Dollar Index 100.73 vs100.69 previous.

Economics

US/Iran – The US continued to strike targets in Iran for a ninth consecutive night.

• Two US troops killed in a Iranian counterstrike on Jordan on Friday.
• Another American soldier killed trying to detonate an Iranian drone in northern Iraq.
• The US is reported to have lost 17 lives since the start of the war in late February.
• Iran is also reported to have targeted US military assets and equipment in Kuwait and Syria.
• Houthis are expected to make an announcement later today.
• Earlier, Tehran called on Yemen’s Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a gateway to the Red Sea.
• Brent hit $90 for the first time since mid June.
• US petrol prices are reported to have crossed the $4 per gallon mark again.

President Xi Jinping still set to visit US in September following Trump speech.

• “We anticipate that the trip is happening in September,” Secretary of State Rubio said.
• President Trump accused China into election interference in 2020 by stealing 220m voter files last week.

China – Short and medium interest rates left unchanged for a 14^th straight month.

• 1y and 5y loan prime rates at 3.0% and 3.5%, in line with expectations.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,015/oz vsUS$3,997/oz previous

Gold ETFs 96.2moz vs 96.4moz previous

Platinum US$1,604/oz vsUS$1,585/oz previous

Palladium US$1,267/oz vsUS$1,236/oz previous

Silver US$56.9/oz vsUS$55.5/oz previous

Silver ETFs 784.9moz vs784.1moz previous

Rhodium US$8,250/oz vsUS$8,250/oz previous      

Base metals:

Copper US$13,578/t vsUS$13,458/t previous

Aluminium US$3,148/t vsUS$3,161/t previous

Nickel US$17,025/t vsUS$16,770/t previous

Zinc US$3,517/t vsUS$3,545/t previous

Lead US$1,875/t vsUS$1,868/t previous

Tin US$53,415/t vsUS$52,415/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$90.0/bbl vsUS$84.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices gained over the weekend as Iran declared that its ceasefire with the US had effectively collapsed, launched strikes across the region and intercepted four vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count rose 7 to 588 units last week (+44 or +8% y/y), with oil rigs up 7 to 452 units (+30 y/y) and gas rigs flat at 126 units (+9 y/y), as the Permian Basin gained 3 to 259 rigs (-4 y/y).
• The Independent Commodity and Intelligence Service forecasts total 2026 global LNG supply to fall 2% y/y to 431 million tonnes after deferring the return of Qatari and UAE LNG output of around 5-6mt per month to October.
• Gulf Keystone has temporarily shut-in production operations from the Shaikan field as a safety precaution due to the developing regional security environment, in line with other international E&Ps operating in the Kurdistan region.

Natural Gas €59.3/MWh vs€55.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.7/lb vs$85.7/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.9/t vsUS$100.2/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.2/t vsUS$469.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$232.0/t vsUS$232.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$133.1/t vsUS$132.0/t     

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vsUS$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$113,146/t vsUS$113,413/t

Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$21,344/t vsUS$21,325/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,215/t vsUS$2,215/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vsUS$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,705/mtu vsUS$1,705/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$225/lb vsUS$225/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vsUS$390/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.6/lb vsUS$5.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.0/kg vsUS$27.0/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$208/t vsUS$210/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vsUS$2,809/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,160/t vsUS$1,158/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vsUS$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vsUS$397.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$4,095.0/kg vsUS$4,095.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$420.0/kg vsUS$420.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$32.0/lb vsUS$32.0/lb

EV & Battery news:

EVs got 18% cheaper in Germany between 2020 and 2025, despite rising average prices

• BEV models became roughly 18% cheaper in real terms in Germany between 2020 and 2025 on a like-for-like basis, according to a joint study from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and Fraunhofer ISI, drawing on more than 100,000 data points across six vehicle segments.
• Comparable ICE vehicle prices rose about 2% over the same period.
• Despite the fall in like-for-like pricing, the median BEV price rose 42% to around €53,000, mainly reflecting a shift toward larger, more expensive models entering the market rather than existing models getting pricier.
• The number of BEV models available in Germany more than quadrupled to 159, while combustion-engine options fell to 194.

Battery metals – China to end key tax break on lithium EV batteries

• China will scrap the tax exemption on lithium-ion EV batteries from 1 September (Caixin)
• Batteries will face a 2% tax, doubling to 4% a year later on top of a 5% purchase tax on EVs in early 2026.
• EVs now represent >60% of China car sales in Q2, with petrol sales down ~45% yoy.
• China’s car industry body said the tax hits carmakers on average margins of 1.5%.

Company news:

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 1,300p, Mkt Cap £247m – Improving grades at the Blanket mine keep full year production guidance on track

• Caledonia Mining reports Q2 production of 17,360oz of gold at its Blanket mine in Zimbabwe bringing H1 output to over 32,000oz and keeping the 72-76,500oz full year production guidance intact.
• Access to “higher-grade mining areas” helped increase the production by 18% compared to the 14,767oz delivered in Q1.
• Improving grades “since January 2026” helped deliver a Q2 average of 2.88g/t and Caledonia Mining confirms a “July 2026 grade to date of 3.05g/t”.
• The improving grades leads Caledonia Mining to expect that “production at Blanket … [to] … be weighted towards the second half of the year as access to higher-grade mining areas improves”.
• Commenting on the Q2 performance, CEO, Mark Learmonth, explained that “As expected, production was lower than in the corresponding period in 2025, which benefitted from record grades. This reflects the planned mining sequence and the temporary constraints on access to higher-grade areas earlier in the year, as previously indicated”.
• He said that “Encouragingly, we are now seeing improved grades in deliveries of ore to the plant, indicating that the measures we have taken to restore access to higher-grade ore are gaining traction. We are now tracking a grade of approximately 3g/t and we expect to remain at that level for the rest of the year”.

Conclusion: Improving grades at the Blanket mine drove an 18% increase in gold output during Q2 and with grades now on track at ~3g/t for the remainder of the year the company is maintaining full year production guidance in the range 72-76,500oz.

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) 0.23p, Mkt Cap £13m – Transfer of loan to potential Indian offtaker

• Celsius Resources confirms that the Philippine sovereign wealth fund, Maharlika Investment Corporation has “completed the assignment of its rights, title, and interests under the Omnibus Loan and Security Agreement … with … [its operating company developing the MCB copper/gold project] … Makilala Mining Company … to Equinaire, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kiri Industries Limited … of India”.
• Today’s announcement quotes Kiri Industries commenting that “The acquisition of the loan represents a precursor transaction that is expected to enable the Group to benefit from an off-take arrangements, ensuring preferential supply of copper ore/concentrate from Makilala Mining Company, Inc. for its upcoming copper facility being developed by Indo Asia Copper Limited”.

EQ Resources (EQR AU) A$0.295, Mkt Cap A$1.5bn – Shares jump 34% as Andrew Forrest buys 16.8% stake from Oaktree Capital

• Tungsten producer EQ Resources rose 34% after mining billionaire Andrew Forrest agreed to buy Oaktree’s 16.8% stake.
• The stake covers c.862.1m shares and 35.6m options, worth A$190m at Friday’s close.
• EQ Resources is the largest Western tungsten producer, with mines in Queensland and Spain.

• EQ Resources also recently acquired a Vietnamese ferrotungsten project last year.
• Oaktree Capital acquired its interest in EQ Resources via its “acquisition of the Barruecopardo tungsten mine in Spain and the ongoing expansion of the Mt Carbine tungsten mine in North Queensland”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that the acquisition of the interest in EQ Resources by Mr Forrest’s Wonongarra Pty “will not impact the strategy, day-to-day operations, management or employees of EQR”.
• Managing Director, Craig Bradshaw, thanked “Oaktree for their support over the years … [and welcomed Mr. Forrest’s participation describing it as] … a strong endorsement for EQ Resources … [which sees] … the ownership baton passed from a financial investor to a stalwart of the Australian mining industry with a proven track record of developing and growing assets”.
• Mr. Bradshaw described the transaction as “a great vote of confidence in EQ Resources, our people, and the growth strategy we are executing across our operations in Australia and Spain”.
• The deal will not change EQR’s strategy, management or operations.
• Tungsten APT prices have risen >12 times in recent years to $3,000-3,279/mtu today since China, c.80% of world supply, restricted exports last year.
• China has authorised just 15 firms to export tungsten with buyers needing to prove their tungsten will not be used for military end uses.

Panthera Resources (PAT LN) 21p, Mkt cap £54m – Progress on US$1.58bn claim against the Republic of India on Bhukia gold project

• Panthera Resources plc report progress on their US$1.58bn claim against the Republic of India as submitted on 16 May 2025.
• The claim relates to India’s breach of the 1999 Agreement between the India and Australia over the promotion and protection of investments.
• Panthera reports that it’s Australian subsidiary, IGPL has filed its Reply on Merits and Principles of Compensation and Counter-Memorial on Jurisdiction and Admissibility on 17 July 2026, in line with the procedural calendar originally announced by the Company on 29 October 2025:
• IGPL’s Treaty Claims Bhukia project rights were the subject of a rejected Prospecting Licence Application in Rajasthan lodged by Metal Mining Pvt Ltd (“MMI”), a subsidiary of IGPL.
• IGPL drilled 20 holes reporting a JORC MRE of 38.5mt grading 1.4 g/t gold for some 1.74moz using a cutoff of 0.5 g/t Au.
• Panthera was looking to then drill out a ‘well-defined’ exploration targets of 6moz gold with the prospect of developing a large, low-cost, open pit gold mining and processing operation.
• Later work by
  • “The Geological Survey of India (“GSI”) published a report in 2014 after the completion of over 150 drill holes (Bulletin Series A (April 2014)), wherein it reported an indicated and inferred mineral resource estimate of 6.7 Moz gold (excluding additional resources subsequently found through additional drilling by the GSI).
  • The estimate was reportedly prepared according to the UNFC code. More recently, the GoR issued a gazette notification containing an updated resource estimate of 113.52 Mt at 1.96 g/t and 0.14% Cu, which amounts to 7.2 Moz of gold plus copper credits, with accessory nickel and cobalt.
  • According to Indian law, the resource estimate was required to be prepared in accordance with the Minerals (Evidence of Mineral Contents) Rules 2015 (“MEMCR”) which are based on the United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC) and Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards (CRIRSCO), though modifications to these standards have been made by India in formulating the terms of the MEMCR.”

Conclusion: We look forward to further news on Panthera’s claim and on how the Indian government responds to the arbitration claim.

Resolution Minerals (RML AU) A$0.043 Mkt Cap A$100m – Idaho project recognised by US Government under scheme to support critical minerals development

• In an announcement to the ASX, Resolution Minerals reports that its Golden Gate tungsten project in Idaho has been granted ‘Fast 41’ status in the US providing it “fast-track permitting”.
• Resolution Minerals explains that the Fast 41 scheme, established under President Trump’s Executive Order 14241 on ‘Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production’ is intended to “reduce reliance on foreign adversaries for the supply of critical minerals, especially during times of war … [and help address] ….  the United States’ critical metals supply deficit and lack of domestic
  production”.
• CEO of US Operations, Craig Lindsay, said that the project joins its Antimony Ridge  project which was granted the Fast 41 status in April 2026 as its second project recognised under the scheme.
• The project is “close to the town of Cascade, Idaho, and important infrastructure”.
• The Golden Gate project “has a historical, non-JORC code compliant gold resource of 216,000 ounces of gold in 7,256,800 tons of material at a grade of 0.93g/t at Golden Gate Hill, and gold resource of 70,000 ounces of gold in 3,174,850 tons of material at a grade of 0.69g/t at Antimony Hill”.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 6.5p, Mkt Cap £167m – Project funding discussions advance ahead of permitting and FID

BUY

• The Company updates on the project funding progress for the Barroso Lithium Project in Portugal.
• Non binding offers for project finance debt received with independent consultants engaged to complete technical, environmental, social and legal due diligence.
• Post due diligence conditional offers are expected to be secured with commercial lenders in the coming months.
• Discussions with KfW IPEX-Bank and Euler Hermes regarding a potential German Government loan guarantee and debt facility are ongoing.
• The Company reported a non binding LOI with Euler Hermes, the export credit agency for the government of Germany, in December 2024 for a potential loan guarantee for up to US$270m, capped at up to 60% of eligible development capex.
• Offtake discussions are progressing with a shortlist of high quality potential partners.
• The Company expects to secure a second offtake later this year (the only offtake currently in place is with AMG for 45ktpa SC over 5y at market prices, with an option for up to 90ktpa over 10y on presenting project funding solution va 183ktpa SC production rate)
• Non binding LOIs signed with a number of potential offtakers for by products with a potential demand of ~865ktpa (DFS assumed 600ktpa sales).
• A dual listing is being considered to expand the investor base.

Conclusion: Following last week’s Barroso DFS, Savannah reports good progress across its project funding workstreams, with a number of lenders now at an advanced stage and conditional project finance offers expected in the coming months. The Company anticipates securing additional spodumene concentrate offtake for Barroso later this year, further helping the bank debt discussions.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

South32 (S32 LN) 204p, Mkt Cap £9.1bn – Production above FY26 guidance in June quarter

• Diversified miner South32 reports June quarter results, with production above FY26 guidance.
• Production against guidance:
  • Sierra Gorda copper finished 2% above.
  • Manganese was 1% above in Australia and 4% above in South Africa.
  • Aluminium was 1% above.
• Sales volumes rose 15% over the quarter, freeing around $200m of working capital.
• The Company returned $327m to shareholders in FY26, with $209m left in its buyback.
• South32 is selling its aluminium business to Alcoa for up to $5.6bn.
• The sale is due to complete in 2H FY27, leaving the Company focused on base metals.
• A fourth grinding line at Sierra Gorda will add c.30% to copper output.
• The Taylor zinc project in the US received its final federal permit on 7 July.

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) 0.02p Mkt Cap £1.3m – Acquisition of copper/silver/gold project in Nevada

• Sunrise Resources reports that it has secured a copper/gold/silver project “located at south-west end of the prospective Humboldt Range” in Churchill County, Nevada.
• Drilling by the former owner, Utah International, on what Sunrise Resources call the ‘Lake’ project, included a 50m wide intersection of skarn-hosted mineralisation from surface at an average grade of 0.73% copper. 31g/t silver and 0.2g/t gold.
• Sunrise Resources confirms that its own sampling “gave results up to 198g/t silver (6.4oz/t) 0.13% copper and 0.3g/t gold in sulphide rich sample”.
• “Mineralisation occurs with a 450m long arsenic and antimony anomaly coincident with mineralised area within a regional low-level gold-in-rock anomaly that extends 1.5 km through the claim block”.
• Executive Chairman, Patrick Cheetham, framed the acquisition in the context of Sunrise Resources’ recent “decision to focus on precious and base metal projects … [and said that the historical drilling of the skarn mineralisation] … can also provide a vector to porphyry copper deposits”.
• He said that “the next steps already defined … [will] … include geophysical surveying and follow up drilling as resources allow”.

SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

No.1 for Precious Metals: Q1 2026

No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange

If anyone reads this article found it useful, helpful? Then please subscribe www.share-talk.com or follow SHARE TALK on our Twitter page for future updates. Terms of Website Use All information is provided on an as-is basis. Where we allow Bloggers to publish articles on our platform please note these are not our opinions or views and we have no affiliation with the companies mentioned

---