SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Monday 19th January 2026

Gold hits new high on Chinese ETF buying and risk-off trade

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls: – SP Angel ranked No1 for Precious Metals in the 2025

Enegex Ltd* (ENX AU) – Auger results identify 650m long drill target at Tougbe

Ferro-Alloy Resources (FAR LN) – Carbon Black substitute MoU with Qingdao Master Tyre

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) – Production results and guidance as Kansanshi S3 Expansion completed under budget

Griffin Mining (GFM LN) – Caijiaying Mine licence extended to 2054

Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN) – Guidance met as balance sheet reinforced following Copper World deal

Panthera Resources Plc (PAT LN) – Drilling results from Bido project, Burkina Faso

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Agreement with a contractor at the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe

Thor Energy (THR LN) – Sale of Molyhil

Gold ($4,667/oz) jumps on Chinese ETF buying and risk-off trade

• Gold prices hit $4,691/oz in the spot market overnight at 23:33pm GMT
• Gold has rallied alongside the wider precious metals spectrum, with silver up 5% at $93/oz and PGMs also rallied >1%.
• Trump escalated his position on Greenland over the weekend, triggering a rush to haven assets from traders, with NASDAQ futures down 1.6%.
• The Japanese Yen and Swiss franc, both traditional safe haven assets, also rallied.
• Trump is threatening to hit key European allies, including Germany, France and the UK, with tariffs over Greenland.
• The EU has countered with a c.€93bn potential tariff package and is exploring restrictions on American companies from the EU market.
• Trump’s escalation has further amplified concerns over the current administration’s approach to foreign policy, following the arrest of Maduro.
• China-US tensions are  seen as a driver in gold buying, with Beijing looking to diversify their foreign reserve base away from US dollar assets.
• China has been expanding its influence in Greenland with Russian military vessels seen in the region.
• Denmark would struggle to counter Russian or Chinese action to develop bases on Greenland with the US the only credible force to save the nation.
• Gold has now rallied 8% this year, and any escalation from Beijing would likely take prices higher.

Silver hit $94.13/oz at 23:33pm (GMT) last night in Asian trade

• Chinese buying into Silver ETFs is thought to be behind the move.

Copper ($12,888/t) consolidates lower amid profit taking and China trader crackdown

• Copper prices fell on Friday alongside the wider metals complex, likely driven by profit taking following the 24% rally since December.
• The Yangshan copper premium fell to $32/t on Friday as higher prices hit demand
• LME stocks rise to.3,850t to 143,575t
• Deliverable copper inventories into SHFE warehouses also rose 18% to 213,515t on Friday
• Lost production of copper concentrates from the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia is worrying the market shifting expectations towards developing deficits.
• COMEX stocks rose to 542,914 short tons (492,523.3t) on Friday
• Zinc, aluminium, nickel, lead and tin all pulled back towards the end of last week but have opened stronger again today.
• The metals have enjoyed a sharp rally ytd on expectations of increased global stimulus and supply shocks.
• Chinese regulators cracked down on high-frequence traders in base metals over the weekend in a bid to reduce market volatility (AFR).
• Chinalco is expected to support Rio’s acquisition of Glencore (Bloomberg).
• Chinalco holds 14.55% of Rio Tinto, with Reuters reporting the potential deal will need regulatory scrutiny from China’s antitrust regulator.
• There may be potential forced asset sales to Chinalco, with Simandou and Oyu Tolgoi of interest, according to Reuters.
• Glencore was previously forced to sell Las Bambas to MMG for $6bn to gain approval for the Xstrata acquisition.

Tin (US$48,100/t) hit $54,200/t on Thursday

• The rise in tin prices has attracted another 8.5% (505t) of tin into LME warehouses today bringing total tin stocks to 5,935t.
• This represents just 1.6% of total tin consumption.

China Lunar New Year – Tue, 17 Feb 2026

• All employees in China will be entitled to a total of 13 days off, when adjusted for weekends and additional weekend work days.
• The Spring Festival holiday will last nine days, making it the longest in history
• Labor Day holiday (1^st May) will last five days
• National Day holiday ( 1^st October^t) will last seven days.

Blue Monday – The third Monday in January is said to be the most depressing day of the year

• There is no scientific basis for blue Monday which was invented by a travel agency to boost holiday sales
• Scientists seen the term as pseudoscientific misinformation, but as the rear tyre deflated on my Lime bike this morning the day got off to a blue start.

IG TV – Copper, Silver and the New Commodities Cycle | Commodity Markets Weekly:  https://youtu.be/mdU5EEjc3Z8?si=BjTihCKKoeKlYHYn

Currencies

US$1.1622/eur vs 1.1613/eur previous. Yen 158.10/$ vs 158.01/$. SAr 16.449/$ vs 16.379/$. $1.340/gbp vs $1.340/gbp. 0.670/aud vs 0.670/aud. CNY 6.964/$ vs 6.968/$

Dollar Index 99.23 vs 99.29 previous

Economics

US – Equity and bond markets are closed today amid Martin Luther King Jr Day celebrations.

Trump send a letter to Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Store arguing the case to controlling Greenland while expressing disappointment that he was not awarded the Peace Prize (administered by Norwegian Nobel Committee).

• “Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America… I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT”.

The USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is reported to be heading towards the Middle East region as the US expands its presence in the region ahead of a possible strike on Iran.

China – Annual GDP growth hits 5% target in 2025, despite slowing pace of expansion

• Growth fell to 4.5% in Q4 according to China’s NBS but still enabled 5% GDP growth for last year led by exports.
• Net exports contributed a third of economic growth in 2025, the highest level since 1997.
• Consumer spending and business investment remained sluggish on weak jobs market and falling house prices.
• Industrial production driven by ongoing strong export orders continued to drive economic growth following major export initiatives by government officials.
• Belt and Road megaproject commitments in the Congo, Nigeria and Indonesia amongst others helped to secure trade deals.
• Slower than expected domestic consumption held the overall growth back indicating further stimulus will come in key sectors as indicated in recent official pronouncements.
• Property Investment (%YTD, Dec / Nov / Est): -17.2 / -15.9 / -16.5
• Residential Property Sales (%YTD, Dec / Nov / Est): -13.0 / -11.2 / NA
• New construction starts fell 20% yoy
• Retail sales rose 0.9% yoy in December highlighting some growth in new consumer demand
• Retail Sales (%YTD, Dec / Nov / Est): 3.7 / 4.0 / NA
• Industrial Production (%YTD, Dec / Nov / Est): 5.9 / 6.0 / NA
• Fixed asset investment fell 3.8% last year – its first full-year decline since the 1990s.
• We expect this may fall again as Trump trade policies draw more investment into the US.
• GDP (%yoy, 4Q / 3Q / Est): 4.5/ 4.8 / 4.5
• GDP (%YTD, 4Q / 3Q / Est): 5.0 / 5.2 / 5.0

The National People’s Congress starts on 5^th March

• Watch out for: Environmental Code, Antarctic Policy, Ethnicity & Language, State Assets, Childcare, Banking Regulation & Trademarks (NPCObserver)

China – Belt and Road financing rose to $214bn last year vs $122.6bn in 2024

• Energy including mainly renewable energy and gas projects commanded the bulk of the finance with 350 deals signed in 2025 according to Christoph Wang at Griffith University.
• Wang reckons spending will continue to increase with further investment in mining, energy and technology.
• The increase in spending makes China the world’s largest bilateral creditor, with 150 countries signed up as partners in Belt and Road Initiatives with $1.4tn committed to date.
• Energy-related project value rose to $94bn last year including $18bn of wind, solar and waste-to-energy projects.
• Metals and mining arose to $32.6bn marking a new record with most of the funding committed outside China.
• New commitments / investment in copper in H2 2025 helped in the second half of the year as China scrambles to secure concentrate and metal supply.
• China continues to strive for self-sufficiency. There is nothing new in this but its control and use of critical minerals to get its way in trade and military dealings is of concern.
• Investment should rise again this year with the start of the new 15th five-year plan and following the success of the Belt and Road initiative.
• The strategy will likely accelerate the move to control more mineral deposits partly helped by the need to drive export trade.

EU – The European Union is discussing imposing tariffs on around €93bn of US goods in retaliation to Trump threats to impose extra 10% levy from February 1.

• US administration said on Saturday that new tariffs will be retched up to 25% in June unless there is an agreement on the 2purchase of Greenland”.
• New tariffs will be imposed on eight countries including France, Germany and the UK.
• Retaliatory tariffs on €93bn of US products was already approved previously but implementation was suspended as two parties agreed a deal.
• If Trump moves ahead with new tariffs, the EU may reintroduce countermeasures.

Japan – PM Sanae Takaichi to dissolve the lower house of the parliament on 23 January with snap elections to follow on 8 February.

• Takaichi is planning to capitalise on high approval ratings since taking the post three months ago.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,670/oz vs US$4,604/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.9moz vs 99.5moz previous

Platinum US$2,357/oz vs US$2,352/oz previous

Palladium US$1,800/oz vs US$1,760/oz previous

Silver US$93.2/oz vs US$91.1/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 846.7moz vs 852.7moz previous

Rhodium US$10,100/oz vs US$10,100/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,894/t vs US$12,909/t previous

Aluminium US$3,140/t vs US$3,137/t previous

Nickel US$17,935/t vs US$18,200/t previous

Zinc US$3,212/t vs US$3,265/t previous

Lead US$2,052/t vs US$2,078/t previous

Tin US$48,100/t vs US$50,000/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$63.8/bbl vs US$63.8/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$3.43/mmBtu vs US$3.18/mmBtu last Friday

• The US Baker Hughes rig count fell 1 to 543 units last week (-37 or -6% y/y), with oil rigs up 1 to 410 units (-68 y/y) and gas rigs down 2 to 122 units (+24 y/y), as 2 rigs departed Texas (now at 228 units) while New Mexico added 2 rigs to 102 units. Media also reports that Continental Resources plans to shut down drilling in North Dakota’s Bakken for the first time in decades because of low prices.
• Mitsubishi has agreed to pay $5.2bn to acquire Aethon’s shale gas assets, which are primarily located in the Haynesville Shale formation and currently produce ~2.1bcf/d of natural gas that is currently sold in the US southern Gulf Coast market.
• Kosmos announced the pricing of $350m principal amount of 11.25% senior secured bonds due 2031 and intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund the tender offer for up to $250m principal amount of its 7.75% Senior Notes due 2027.

Natural Gas €33.5/MWh vs €34.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.0/lb vs $85.1/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.6/t vs US$106.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.3/t vs US$465.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$233.0/t vs US$232.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$111.4/t vs US$110.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$96,857/t vs US$97,942/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,042/t vs US$22,688/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,050/t vs US$2,050/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,158/mtu vs US$1,158/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$108/lb vs US$107/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,127/t vs US$1,127/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Company News:

Enegex Ltd* (ENX AU) A$0.29, Mkt Cap A$73m – Auger results identify 650m long drill target at Tougbe

• Enegex, led by the ex-Predictive team, report auger results from their Tougbe project in Cote d’Ivoire.
• Auger highlights include:
  • TOAU0038: 18m at 1.59g/t Au from surface
  • TOAU0016: 10m at 1.17g/t Au from surface
  • TOAU0012: 15m at 0.77g/t Au from 10m
  • TOAU0033: 18m at 0.63g/t Au from 2m
• Previous AC holes included:
  • TEWA335: 39m at 0.71g/t Au from 24m
  • TEWA348: 32m at 0.62g/t Au from 8m
  • TEWA336: 33m at 0.6g/t Au from 24m
• Management notes the auger results ‘confirm and in places improve on the wider-spaced historical AC drilling results.’
• Company notes gold mineralisation is interpreted as multiple sets of steeply dipping quartz veins.
• Angled AC drilling of the target will begin in early February and auger drilling has begun on a target west of the AC target.
• Trenching at Gogo has been completed, with results due in the coming weeks and RC drilling due in March.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Enegex

Ferro-Alloy Resources (FAR LN) 8.3p, Mkt Cap £46m – Carbon Black substitute MoU with Qingdao Master Tyre

• Ferro-Alloy, who are advancing the Balasausqandiq vanadium project in Kazakhstan, report an MoU.
• The non-binding MoU with Qingdao Master Tyre agrees to supply up to 360ktpa of carbon black substitute from the project.
• The carbon black substitute will be produced from low vanadium waste rock.
• The Company reports the product ‘is considered a priority project for Master Tyre over the next three years.’
• Pricing will be agreed in future commercial negotiations, and Ferro-Alloy will work with Master Tyre to optimise the product specification.
• Master Tyre produces car and tuck tyres in China and overseas.

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) C$41, Mkt Cap C$34bn – Production results and guidance as Kansanshi S3 Expansion completed under budget

• First Quantum reports production results for FY25.
• The Company produced 396kt Cu, 152koz Au and 23kt Ni.
• This compares to 431kt Cu, 139koz Au and 24kt Ni in 2024.
• Lower production from Sentinel was a result of lower grades and maintenance periods.
• Company guides for 375-435kt Cu in 2026, 410-470kt in 2027 and 430-490kt in 2028.
• Guidance was lowered slightly to factor in higher maintenance and revised ball mill availability at Sentinel.
• Kansanshi production expected slightly lower on lower grades.
• Copper AISC guided at $3.25-3.55/lb in 2026, $3.1-3.4/lb in 2027 and $3-3.3/lb in 2028.
• Cost guidance is higher on lower forecast production and the exclusion of by-product credits from Guelb Moghrein.
• CAPEX guided at $1-1.15bn in 2026, $850-950m in 2027 and $750-850m in 2028.
• CAPEX is lower than guided following the bringing forward of expenditure to 2025.
• First Quantum is waiting to receive approval for the processing of ore stockpiles at Cobre Panama for environmental controls.
• Taca Taca’s updated technical report is due 1Q26, with a RIGI application also due.

Griffin Mining (GFM LN) 280p, Mkt Cap £493m – Caijiaying Mine licence extended to 2054

• Polymetallic miner Griffin reports the Caijiaying Mine licence has been renewed by 26 years to 2054.
• Griffin reports the extension period is based upon the mine resources.
• It supports the production from Zones II and III.
• Management notes strong ‘goodwill towards Griffin, as good citizens of China, to obtain the necessary approvals to take the Caijiaying Mine to the next level.’
• The 2024 Caijiaying MRE reports:
  • 82.3mt at 3.8% Zn, 0.6% Pb, 28g/t Ag, 0.4g/t Au for 3.2mt Zn, 0.5mt Pb, 73moz Ag and 1.1moz Au.

Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN) C$31, Mkt Cap C$12bn – Guidance met as balance sheet reinforced following Copper World deal

• Copper miner Hudbay reports production of 118.2kt Cu, 268koz Au, 17.6kt Zn, 3.5moz Ag and 1.3koz Mo.
• Copper production came towards the lower end of guidance at 117-149kt and below 2025 production of 138kt.
• Weaker production was the result of wildfire evacuation shutdowns.
• Cash and cash equivalents reported at $992m following the closing of the Copper World JV.
• British Columbia operations were impacted by reduced throughput at the SAG mill and higher low-grade stockpile usage.

Panthera Resources Plc (PAT LN) 21.5p, Mkt cap £54m – Drilling results from Bido project, Burkina Faso

• Panthera Resources has reported results from its drilling programme at the Bido Project in Burkina Faso approximately 125km WSW of the capital Ouagadougou.
• Drilling tested 5 shallow targets with reverse circulation (RC) drilling at the Kwademen Prospect where 19 holes were completed for a total of ~1,860m.
• The drilling has confirmed “historical zones of gold mineralisation” in ‘Targets 1&2’ with highlighted results including:
  • 12m at an average grade of 0.2g/t gold from the surface in hole KWD25-RC-001 which also intersected 18m averaging 0.54g/t gold from 72m depth including higher-grade single metre intervals of up to 6.57g/t gold at 80m depth: and
  • 10m at an average grade of 0.72g/t gold from surface in hole KWD-RC-017 which also included a 5m interval at 4.95g/t from 35m depth including a single m assaying 19.2g/r at 36m depth; and
  • 24m averaging 0.61g/t gold from 26m depth in hole KWD-RC-003; and
  • 4m averaging 2.52g/t gold from a depth of 34m in hole KWD-RC-014A at the ‘Target 5’ area
• Managing Director, Mark Bolton, said that the “maiden drilling programme by Panthera at the Kwademen prospect has delivered outstanding high-grade intersections within several broad zones of mineralisation that remain open in multiple directions”.
• Today’s announcement does not describe the plans for further exploration at this stage.

Conclusion: Initial RC drilling has provided encouragement and we look forward to news on the company’s plans to advance the project at Bido.

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.04p, Mkt Cap £3.7m – Agreement with a contractor at the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe

• Premier African Minerals reports that it has agreed with JR Goddard Contracting “in relation to the Writ of Execution for Movable Property at the Zulu Lithium and Tantalum Project”.
• The parties have agreed “to settle JRG’s entire claim in the aggregate amount of US$2.4 million, together with interest”.
• “The settlement amount is payable by way of an initial payment of US$400,000 due on or before 30 January 2026, followed by a series of monthly instalments through to November 2026 … [and] … provides for the suspension of enforcement action by JRG for so long as Premier and Zulu Lithium remain fully compliant with the agreed payment schedule”.
• Chairman, Godfrey Manhambara, described the agreement with JRG as “a highly positive outcome, providing future certainty and enabling the Company to progress its funding and operational initiatives at Zulu Lithium”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that the company “recognises the need to strengthen its composition as soon as practicable and accordingly, the Board is actively reviewing and progressing the appointment of additional directors”.

Conclusion: Premier African Minerals has secured an agreement and timetable with a contractor to settle their outstanding liabilities at the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe.

Thor Energy (THR LN) 0.68p, Mkt Cap £5.9m – Sale of Molyhil

• Thor Energy confirms the receipt of an A$2.25m ‘cash completion’ payment for the sale of its Molyhil Tungsten/Molybdenum/Copper Project in Australia’s Northern Territory.
• Including an A$375k non-refundable payment which granted the purchaser, Tivan Ltd, exclusivity the payment announced today brings receipts so far to ~A$0.84m with 3 further payments, each of A$1,312,500 due in September 2026, 2027 and 2028 bringing the total sale proceeds to A$6,562,500.
• Chairman, Alastair Clayton, welcomed “the monetisation of Molyhil … [which] … has already led to a significant inflow of cash to the Company, and … [Mr. Clayton confirmed that] … there will be three further annual payments of A$1,312,500 commencing from this September”.
• He said that proceeds from the disposal of Molyhil “means more resources to advance Hy-Range and less dilution to achieve this”.

Conclusion: The sale of Molyhil brings in ~A$6.6m in stages up to September 2028 to progress the Hy-Range hydrogen/helium project in South Australia.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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