SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Monday 15th December 2025

Gold climbs again as sustained rally looks to test new highs

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Alta Copper (ATCU CN) – Sale to Fortescue for C$1.4/share

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – New Prospecting License in Botswana offers more ground for Machine Learning program to work on

Equinox Gold (EQX US) – CMOC to buy Brazilian gold assets for $1.015bn

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Kalahari looks to jv exploration in the Kahalari Copper Belt

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Engineering study update brings significant uplift in HyProMag USA economics

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) – Drilling nears completion at Harts Range Rare Earth project in Australia

Power Metals (PWM CN) – Caesium offtake agreement signed with Albemarle

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Maiden drilling results from Oman

Resolute Mining (RSG LN) – Doropo DFS update delivers longer LOM and stronger economics on higher gold prices

Gold ($4.343/oz) climbs again as sustained rally looks to test new highs

• Gold prices have rebounded following a momentary sell-off on Friday.
• The metal hit $4,346/oz on Friday before sliding below $4,300/oz briefly.
• Gold prices are pressing on again, climbing towards the October record high of $4,387/oz.
• Gold rallied 2% following the Fed meeting, which saw a divergent FOMC opt for a 25b cut.
• Goolsbee and Schmid dissented against further easing.
•  Gold and silver are on track for their best annual performances since 1979.
• ETF holdings are rising as retail investors boost exposure following the sharp sell-off in October.
• Silver is being driven by speculative positioning, with traders eyeing potential deficits in supply.
• Central Banks continue to add, although China slowed their purchases in November, despite adding for the 13^th straight month.

Copper – Shandong province plans US$28bn smelting hub by 2027 empire secure supply chains for the strategic metals and dominate global market

• Shandong in eastern China has launched an initiative to become a world-class smelting hub by 2027.
• The provincial government has pledged to expand its copper industry “to further enhance the resilience and security of the industrial supply chains,”
• The province is looking to become “globally competitive copper-smelting” and a domestic leader in research and development for high-end copper materials.

Chile – Conservative, José Antonio Kast elected as president

• Kast gained >58% of the vote beating the left-wing coalition candidate.
• The election is likely to be positive for the copper industry in Chile.

Potash – The US lifts sanctions on Belaruskali, a major export revenues earner for Belarus and one of the largest producers globally.

• Removal of sanctions follows a deal between Minsk and Washington with President Lukashenko pardoning 123 political prisoners.
• Belaruskali had to seek new trading routes amid both US and European sanctions.
• EU restrictions on transit of potash through Lithuania to the Baltic Sea port of Klaipeda means the Company will continue to redirect sales through Russia.

IG TV Commodity Corner (09/12/25):  

     (02/12/25):  

Economics

China – Economic data comes on a low side this morning with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing and weak property market remaining a challenge.

• Retail Sales (%YTD, Nov / Oct / Est): 4.0 / 4.3 / 4.3
• Industrial Production (%YTD, Nov / Oct / Est): 6.0 / 6.1 / 6.0
• FAI (%YTD, Nov / Oct / Est): -2.6 / -1.7 / -2.3
• Property Investment (%YTD, Nov / Oct / Est): -15.9 / -14.7 / -15.4
• Residential Property Sales (%YTD, Nov / Oct / Est): -11.2 / -9.4 / NA
• New Home Prices (%mom, Nov / Oct / Est): -0.39 / -0.45 / NA

Ukraine – President Zelenskyy said the country may give up its efforts to join Nato in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe.

• “We are talking about bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States — namely, Article 5–like guarantees.. as well as security guarantees for us from our European partners and from other countries such as Canada, Japan and others,” Zelenskyy said.
• Ukraine is yet to receive a response from Washington regarding its latest peace deal proposal sent last week.

VW investing €3bn in R&D center in Hefei, China for development of vehicles for China Middle East and Southeast Asia.

• The strategy is to enable VW to maintain market share levels in line with current levels.
• VW is looking to launch new range of “in China, for China” models next year.
• The phrase ‘if you can’t beat em, join em’ springs to mind.

Currencies

US$1.1738/eur vs 1.1738/eur previous. Yen 155.13/$ vs 155.67/$. SAr 16.830/$ vs 16.839/$. $1.337/gbp vs $1.338/gbp. 0.665/aud vs 0.667/aud. CNY 7.050/$ vs 7.055/$.

Dollar Index 98.37 vs 98.36 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,345/oz vs US$4,301/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.3moz vs 98.2moz previous

Platinum US$1,783/oz vs US$1,707/oz previous

Palladium US$1,530/oz vs US$1,520/oz previous

Silver US$63.6/oz vs US$63.8/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,950/oz vs US$7,975/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,661/t vs US$11,857/t previous

Aluminium US$2,883/t vs US$2,888/t previous

Nickel US$14,565/t vs US$14,625/t previous

Zinc US$3,151/t vs US$3,202/t previous

Lead US$1,968/t vs US$1,982/t previous

Tin US$41,220/t vs US$42,050/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$61.2/bbl vs US$61.6/bbl previous

• The US Baker Hughes rig count fell 1 to 548 units last week (-41 or 7% y/y), with oil rigs up 1 to 414 units (-68 y/y) and gas rigs down 2 to 127 units (+24 y/y), with New Mexico losing 3 rigs to 104 units (flat y/y) and Ohio gaining 1 rig to 14 units (+5 y/y).

Natural Gas €27.6/MWh vs €27.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $78.3/lb vs $77.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$101.3/t vs US$102.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$458.4/t vs US$457.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$207.0/t vs US$207.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.8/t vs US$106.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$82,132/t vs US$82,068/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$13,405/t vs US$13,253/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,120/t vs US$1,125/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$788/mtu vs US$778/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$97/lb vs US$97/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.2/kg vs US$24.2/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$259/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,114/t vs US$1,113/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

EU to scrap 2035 ban on sales of new ICE cars

• Although there has been no official announcement, the EU is set to scrap its 2035 ICE ban.
• Speaking to German newspaper Bild, president of the EPP, the European Parliament’s largest party, Manfred Weber, said that the plans were “off the table.”
• Instead of the blanket ban, flexible emission reduction rules will be implemented, he said: “For new registrations from 2035 onwards, a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions will now be mandatory for car manufacturers’ fleet targets, instead of 100%.”
• The British government has insisted it will not follow the EU in diluting plans to shift all new car sales to electric vehicles from 2035.
• EU officials met for discussions this week surrounding allowances for range extenders and plug-in hybrids until 2040 or allowing new cars to emit a small fraction of carbon dioxide after 2035, which would permit a limited number of combustion engines to be sold.
• An official announcement is expected this week.

Company news

Alta Copper (ATCU CN) C$1.22, Mkt cap C$115m – Sale to Fortescue for C$1.4/share

• Alta Copper has reached an agreement to sell to Fortescue for C$139m in cash.
• The C$1.4/share price reflects a 50% premium to the 30 day VWAP from 12^th December.
• Management notes that advancing the Cañariaco copper project would require Alta to ‘navigate a complex, multi-year community and regulatory approvals process in northern Peru with no assurance of success.
• Fortescue held 35.7% of Alta before the transaction.
• Cañariaco Project:
  • Cañariaco Norte: M&I resource of 4.2mt Cu, 2.2moz Au and 60.4moz Ag
  • Cañariaco Sur: inferred resource of 1.1mt Cu, 0.5moz Au and 16.9moz Ag
  • 2024 PEA saw 135ktpa Cu over 23 year LOM and post-tax NPV8 of $2.35bn and IRR of 24% at $4/lb Cu.
  • Development CAPEX of $2.2bn and LOM sustaining capital of $526m.
  • AISC expected at $1.92/lb Cu.

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 30p, Mkt Cap £4.8m – New Prospecting License in Botswana offers more ground for Machine Learning program to work on

(Rwanda: Aterian holds an effective 100% stake in the Musasa Mining Licenses plus a 70% interest in Kinunga Mining Limited which holds the HCK licence alongside HCK Mining Company Limited which has a 30% interest.) (Botswana: Aterian also holds a 90% in Atlantis Metals which holds its licenses in Botswana). (Morocco: Aterian holds 100% on all licenses held in Morocco)

• Aterian plc reports the winning of new new Prospecting Licence within the KCB ‘Kalahari Copper Belt’ in Botswana.
• The licenses are close to ground held by Sandfire Resources, which operates the Motheo copper mine mines copper in Botswana including the T3 and A4 Open Pit mines, as well as the A1 development project. Motheo produces a high-quality copper and silver concentrate which is trucked to Walvis Bay in Namibia for shipping.
• Aterian’s new prospecting licence’s cover covers 396.24km2, is valid for three years and is renewable thereafter.
• Aterian and Lithosquare will be able to run their Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence joint venture over the ground for further insight and ideas on the underlying geology.

Conclusion: There is substantial information on the KCB for the AI routines to learn from offering potential for new discoveries to be targeted in further exploration.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

Equinox Gold (EQX US) $14.7, Mkt cap $11.5bn – CMOC to buy Brazilian gold assets for $1.015bn

• Equinox Gold has reached an agreement with CMOC Group over the sale of their Brazilian gold operations.
• CMOC will pay an upfront cash consideration of $900m on closing, alongside a $115m production-linked contingent cash payment.
• Equinox will receive 12.5% of revenue for production between 200-280koz from the assets in 2026 or $115m if production hits >280koz.
• Closing expected 1Q26.
• Equinox will use the proceeds to repay the $500m term loan and $300m Sprott loan, alongside reducing their RCF commitments.
• Management will consider capital return commitments and eye organic growth opportunities.
• Equinox highlights their ambitiions to focus on long-life assets, including Greenstone, Valentine and Castle Mountain in ‘Tier One’ jurisdictions.
• Brazilian Operations:
  • Group production of 250-270koz in 2025E at AISC of $2,275-2,375/oz.
  • Aurizona Mine holds an 8ktpd CIL plant with expansion potential to 140kozpa with development of an underground operation and near-mine satellite pits.
  • Aurizona underground portal and decline due to begin late 2025.
  • Aurizona reserves of 1.7moz at 1.6g/t Au, M&I resources of 868koz at 1.49g/t Au
  • Bahia holds two processing plants (Santa Luz and Fazenda) with combined production of c.135kozpa.
  • Santa Luz holds reserves of 1.1moz at 1.34g/t Au, M&I of 900oz at 1.69g/t/ Au
  • Fazenda holds reserves of 763koz at 1.8g/t Au, M&I of 1.5moz at 2.21g/t Au
• CMOC is leveraging copper/cobalt cashflows to build out their gold production profile, having acquired Lumina Gold’s Cangrejos porphyry deposit for $419m in April.

Conclusion: The CMOC-Equinox deal marks a continuation of gold producers selling assets to streamline their portfolios with focus on tier one, long-life flagship assets. Chinese groups continue to build out their gold production profiles. We would expect this continue as prices continue to test record highs, partly driven by the PBoC’s large-scale bullion-buying programme.

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.57p, Mkt Cap £21m – Kalahari looks to jv exploration in the Kahalari Copper Belt

• Kavango Resources, which is focussing on gold production and exploration in Zimbabwe is looking to jv their exploration portfolio in Botswana
• The ground comprises a contiguous 6,200km² licence position, along-strike from MMG’s Khoemacau and Sandfire’s Motheo copper-silver mines.
  • “Diamond drilling at the Karakubis prospect has already intersected copper mineralisation in all seven initial drill holes, supported by spot pxrf readings in excess of 1% copper and evidence of significant hydrothermal alteration.
  • Regional geophysics and structural interpretation indicate favourable folding and D’Kar-Ngwako Pan contact zones consistent with major deposits elsewhere in the Belt.”

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 59p, Mkt Cap £174m – Engineering study update brings a significant uplift in HyProMag USA economics

BUY

• HyProMag USA, a 50/50 JV Maginito/CoTec (Maginito is owned 79/21 Mkango/CoTec), released an update of the engineering study for the US magnet recycling facility in Texas, US.
• The design update includes the Class 2 AACE capital cost estimate and valuation update incorporating expansion of HPMS capacity to three vessels, up from two.
• Updated study highlights include:
  • Three HPMS units to produce 1,552tpa NdFeB (up from ~1,000tpa with two HPMS units previously).
  • Production of higher value sintered magnets increased to 941tpa (up from 750tpa).
  • Higher sintered magnet production is attributed to debottlenecking of production flowsheet.
  • Development capex $142m, up on $135m due to additional magnet finishing equipment and advanced Grad Boundary Diffusion tech.
  • GBD allows the Texas Hub greater operational flexibility to make grades of magnets with higher coercivity (>20 kOe), which are capable of operating at higher temperatures.
  • New design layout allows for the inclusion of additional furnaces within three years of commissioning (extra $3m cost) to increase share of sintered magnet production further.
  • Capex includes 8% contingency and is based on a one year construction period.
  • LOM AISC $22.3/kg NdFeB product vs average market price of $56.8kg NdFeB.
  • Post Tax NPV7 and IRR $409m and 28% at current market prices (up on $262m and 23% previous study, Class 3 AACE 2024)
  • Payback at current market prices in 3.1 years at a profitability index of 2.89
  • Post Tax NPV7 and IRR $780m and 39% at forecast market prices (up on $503m and 31%)
• The detailed design work is reported to be ~30% complete now.
• Separately, CoTec and Mkango are studying a potential listing of HyProMag USA in the US.
• The listing will provide access to a broader investor base for a unique permanent magnet HPMS technology.
• Any potential listing to take place no earlier than late 2026 or early 2027.
• The listing to depend on execution of the Texas Hub plan, prevailing market conditions and US regulatory approvals.

Conclusion: HyProMag USA team tightens up design and economics of the first HPMS based permanent magnet recycling operation releasing a higher confidence Class 2 AACE capex estimate and valuation update. New study includes three HPMS vessels raising magnet product output by >50% while debottlenecking of production flowsheet raised higher value sintered magnet production levels. The update is highly value accretive delivering a significant uplift to HyProMag USA NPVs (Post Tax NPV7 and IRR $409m and 28% at current market prices, up on $262m and 23% previous study). Additionally, HyProMag USA team is looking at US listing (2026-27) to diversify investor base and potentially offering pure play exposure to HPMS tech.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 0.85p, Mkt Cap £16m – Drilling nears completion at Harts Range Rare Earth project in Australia

• New Frontier Minerals reports the near completion of their first drilling campaign at Harts Range, 140km north-east of Alice Springs, Australia.
• The 46-hole (~2,500m) RC campaign is drill-testing a series of priority targets for insight into the geology, to help determine the extent of the REE mineralisation.
• Chippings from drilling have been send to ALS Adelaide for assay with results to be announced as received.
• The company continues to make progress on the commercial framework with Metallium and to assess the 25kg bulk sample from Harts Range at MTM’s facility in Texas, USA.
• Metallium have made meaningful progress on the processing of the 25kg bulk sample of raw ore from Harts Range using FJH ‘Flash Joule Heating’ technology.
• The Metallium Ltd’s FJH trial shows 20x TREO upgrade in total REOs to 35 % from 1.7 % in a single step flash
• Key heavy REEs Dy and Tb, and magnet REE Nd concentrations increased significantly
  • Dy₂O₃ upgraded 53× (0.19% → 10.03%) / 11% → 29% of the REO basket (+160%)
  • Tb₄O₇ upgraded 21× (0.03% → 0.64%) / 1.7% → 1.8% of the REO basket (+5%)
  • Nd₂O₃ upgraded 114× (0.05% → 5.69%) / 2.9% → 16.3% of the REO basket (+460%)
  • Complete removal of detectable Fe₂O₃, SiO₂ and Th
  • Partial yttrium rejection, reducing Y₂O₃ from 61% to 35% of the REO basket
• The trial was run on raw ore, with no flotation, acid leaching or hydrometallurgical pre-conditioning.
• The results represent show positive beneficiation for a raw Dy/Tb-bearing ore in a single, rapid, solvent-free reaction.
• Copper: The Mining Lease Application for the Big One Deposit in northwest Queensland is also making progress.
• The Application outlines a proposed open-cut operation designed to test and extract near-surface copper mineralisation from the JORC-compliant Indicated and Inferred Resources totalling 2.1mt grading 1.1 % Cu, in addition to 7,000 t @ 1.3 % Cu of surface Indicated stockpiles.
• The idea is to assess and process existing stockpiles and surface mineralisation at Austral’s Mt Kelly facility.

Conclusion: We look forward to news on the REE grade, contained REEs and potential scale of mineralisation at Harts Range from the drill chippings before Christmas.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

Power Metals (PWM CN) C$0.92, Mkt cap C$160m – Caesium offtake agreement signed with Albemarle

• Power Metals, who hold the Case Lake Caesium Project, provides an update.
• Albemarle has purchased Winsome Resources offtake rights over the Case Lake Project.
• Albemarle will hold all Project offtake.
• Albemarle will has agreed a prepay of up to C$5m of caesium oxide offtake from Case Lake.
• Winsome will retain a 15.8% stake in Power Metals.
• Case Lake is targeting maiden production in 2026.

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 13.5p, Mkt cap £16m – Maiden drilling results from Oman

• Power Metals reports initial drilling results from the Block 8 project in Oman.
• The company has drilled eight holes over 724m.
• Drilling was aimed at targeting a potential copper-dominant VMS system.
• Management notes that all holes intersected prospective lithological units,.
• Drilling yielded highlights of:
  • AM25DD001: 0.36% Cu over 1m from 72m, 0.35% Cu over 4m from 80m and 1.04% Cu over 1.5m from 96m
  • AM25DD002: 0.19% Cu over 4m from 85m
  • AM25DD003: elevated Cu, Pb and Zn results over 18m from 35m
  • AM25DD006: 1.1% Zn over 1m from 51m
• Management suggests drilling confirms the presence of VMS-style mineralisation, seeing strong alteration signatures and structural features across all holes.
• Drilling was targeting using magnetic and gravimetric data, alongside trenching results.
• Faulting and brecciation was also evident in all holes, averaging c.4m in width.
• Sulphides were intersected in 6/8 holes, with pyrite dominant and occurring as disseminations, veinlets and semi-massive form.
• POW has now fulfilled their requirement to earn a 12.5% stake in Block 8.

Conclusion: This is a good start for Power Metals in Oman, with a maiden drilling programme at Block-8 confirming the presence of VMS-style mineralisation. Further work will be required to boost their understanding of the geological model and find economic widths of mineralisation. Additional trenching and drilling programmes are currently being planned.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources

Resolute Mining (RSG LN)55p, Mkt Cap £1.2bn – Doropo DFS update delivers longer LOM and stronger economics on higher gold prices

• The Company released an updated DFS for the recently acquired Doropo Gold Project, Cote d’Ivoire.
• The updated study is compiled by Lycopodium and builds on the 2024 DFS prepared by Centamin.
• Updated reserves
  • 59.1mt at 1.31g/t for ~2.5moz (vs 38.2mt at 1.53g/t for ~1.9moz on 2024 estimates).
• Updated reserves use higher gold price assumption ($1,950/oz vs $1,450/oz previously).
• Updated DFS highlights:
  • LOM 13y (up on 10y previously);
  • Throughput 4.9mtpa (up on 4.0mtpa)
  • Development Capex $515m (up on $373m)
  • AISC $1,406/oz (up on $1,047/oz)
  • Production 169kozpa over LOM (vs 167kozpa)
  • Production 204koz at $1,294/oz over first 1-5Y.
  • Post tax NPV5 and IRR $1.5B and 49% at $3,000/oz (vs Post Tax NPV8% and IRR $0.4B and 34% at $1,900/oz in 2024 DFS).
  • Post tax NPV5 and IRR $2.8B and 77% at $4,200/oz
• Higher capex is driven by higher throughput capacity, general cost inflation, items omitted in the previous study and additional contingency.
• Higher opex are attributed to higher diesel and power price assumptions as well as higher royalties due to higher price assumptions (~90/oz extra).
• The team will conduct a study into a solar and battery solution complementing grid supply.
• Near term timeline:
  • FID 1Q26
  • Construction start mid-2026
  • First production 1H28

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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