SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Friday 9th January 2026

Precious metals rise again amid continued volatile trading as gold stabilises higher

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Energy Fuels (UUUU US) – Toliara updated feasibility study results

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – BUY – TP 4.9p (from 3.5p) – FLASH NOTE – TK project funding agreed

Mayfair Gold (MFG CN) – Fenn-Gibb PFS outlines 64kozpa Au over 14 year LOM

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – 2025 review describes progress at Redmoor where a new MRE is expected later this quarter

SP Angel has ranked No1 today for Precious Metals in the 2025 LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls

Precious metals rise again amid continued volatile trading as gold stabilises higher

• Palladium and silver are up 6% and 3.5% respectively at $1,909/t and $78/t in a continuation of volatile Christmas trading.
• Gold has stabilised at higher levels around $4,470/oz, but remains below recent record highs of $4,550/oz in the spot market.
• US Treasury yields edged higher again, with the 10 year nearing 4.2% on sustained inflation concerns and limited weakness in the US labour market.
• Focus will be on today’s NFP data, where consensus is guiding for 75k additional jobs in December.
• Expect a Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs to generate further volatility in precious metals.
• A dollar rally remains a threat to the precious metal rally, having rebounded to 99 vs 12 month lows of 96 made in June on the index.

Aluminium ($3,137/t) moves past 12 month highs on low inventories and tariff impacts

• Aluminium prices have risen 24% over the past year, rising to $3,147/t, below their 2022 record high of $3,500/t.
• Supply disruptions and tariff impacts are lifting prices.
• Trump instigated a 50% aluminium import tariff in June to boost domestic production.
• US premiums have risen to c.$2,100/t for aluminium in the US, up 65% since June.
• Reuters reports US aluminium inventories have fallen 450kt to 300kt since the beginning of 2025.
• Furthermore, South32 mothballed the Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique, expected to come offline in March on limited power options.
• Mozal’s annual production stood at c.350ktpa.

Rio Tinto / Glencore merger – Potential all-share offer by Rio Tinto for Glencore to make world’s largest miner at >$260bn

• Rio Tinto and Glencore* are in preliminary discussions to combine their businesses which may be by way of an all-share merger or acquisition of Glencore by Rio Tinto.
• The combined EV of the two firms is >US$260bn and will employee >210,000 employees and contractors.
• Rio Tinto will have until 5.00pm GMT on 5 February to announce if it intends to make a firm offer.
• Glencore and Rio have had on/off discussions for some time with Glencore approaching Rio Tinto in 2024.
• Balance sheet: The usual billion dollars of balance sheet savings will no-doubt oil the synergy between the combined entities.
• BHP: Will BHP step in with a rival offer for Rio Tinto or Glencore? BHP was on the verge of acquiring Rio Tinto just ahead of the GFC Sub-Prime financial crisis.
• We heard reports back then that Rio execs had their bags packed and ready to move to Australia to be part of the BHP group.
• BHP will certainly consider the potential to step in with a rival offer but their cautiousness may prevent a move.
• The merger proposal follows closely behind Teck’s acquisition of Anglo American, principally for its copper mines.
• BHP had moved to acquire Anglo but with significant conditions on jettisoning the South African assets. BHP stepped back from its initial deal leaving Teck free to merge with Anglo.
• Cultures: Glencore has a fast-paced can-do attitude whereas Rio Tinto is more carefully considered with teams of technical specialists. The combination of the two could work brilliantly well if managed in the right way.
• We recommend Rio should embrace the best of Glencore and add value through its technical expertise.
• Benchmarking: Rio Tinto benchmark’s its mines and business against other miners and will have worked out that it is better to use its paper to acquire Glencore than to leverage its balance sheet for the transaction.
• Plus, a paper deal feels very much easier to transact than a cash offer where simple adjustments may be made to the relative value of each company’s shares.
• Rationale: Rio Tinto are world-class mining experts and will add value to the Glencore portfolio
• Glencore was built around its trading operation with Xstrata acting as its arms-length mining business and employs many of the world’s leading commodity traders.
• Trading: Rio Tinto’s traders have done well with iron ore pricing over the years but can Rio complement and enhance Glencore’s leading trading business?
• Diversification: Ironically, the deal will expand and diversify the group reversing the former strategy of asset sales and greater focus.
• Coal: what will happen to Glencore’s coal. Rio Tinto cleaned out its coal mines a few years ago, does it really want to go back there?
• Anti-Competition authorities: should not have too much to worry about, though China might try to extract some concessions, eg the sale of a copper mine or two.

Conclusion: The consolidation brings good opportunity for the new executive team to combine logistics and technical personnel. We see the combination, if managed in the right way as leading to meaningful new opportunity and growth within the portfolio.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Glencore

Currencies

US$1.1646/eur vs 1.1671/eur previous. Yen 157.62/$ vs 156.66/$.SAr 16.567/$ vs 16.471/$.$1.342/gbp vs $1.344/gbp.0.668/aud vs 0.670/aud.CNY 6.983/$ vs 6.981/$.

Dollar Index 99.04 vs98.77 previous.

Economics

US – NFPs and Supreme Court decision day

• Online betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi see only a ~25% chance Supreme Court supports Trump tariffs.
• Labour numbers are expected to show the economy adding 75k jobs in December, up from 69k the previous month.
• Unemployment rate forecast slightly lower 4.5% (from 4.6%).
• Labour earnings to report accelerating growth 0.3%mom and 3.6%yoy (0.1%mom and 3.5%yoy).

China – Inflation accelerated to a three year high in December, although, the full year average hit the lowest in 16 years.

• Over 2025 consumer prices were flat and well below the “around 2%” target indicating struggling consumer sentiment.
• Producer deflation persisted as well.
• PPI (%yoy, Dec / Nov / Est): -1.9 / -2.2 / -2.0
• CPI (%yoy, Dec / Nov / Est): 0.8 / 0.7 / 0.8

Russia/Ukraine – Kyiv confirmed that Russia fired a ballistic missile hitting infrastructure facilities next to Lviv located ~100km from the Polish border.

• A hypersonic, nuclear capable missile on Thursday night, allegedly in response to an earlier Ukrainian attack on President Putin’s residence.
• Russian defence ministry said the missile used was the “Oreshnik” that can carry multiple conventional and nuclear warheads.
• Earlier, Russia rejected plans to deploy French and British troops in Ukraine following a ceasefire calling those “legitimate military targets” should that happen.

Iran – Authorities cut off internet across the country amid battle with rising number of protests.

• Commentators say that latest unrests pose the biggest domestic treat to the Islamic regime in years.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,432/oz vs US$4,422/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.1moz vs 99.0moz previous

Platinum US$2,207/oz vs US$2,202/oz previous

Palladium US$1,736/oz vs US$1,711/oz previous

Silver US$75.1/oz vs US$75.3/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 849.4moz vs 849.9moz previous

Rhodium US$9,750/oz vs US$9,850/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,826/t vs US$12,779/t previous

Aluminium US$3,086/t vs US$3,064/t previous

Nickel US$17,160/t vs US$16,940/t previous

Zinc US$3,148/t vs US$3,148/t previous

Lead US$2,036/t vs US$2,028/t previous

Tin US$44,105/t vs US$44,465/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$62.5/bbl vs US$60.0/bbl previous

Natural Gas €27.8/MWh vs €27.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $82.0/lb vs $82.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$108.5/t vs US$107.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$463.8/t vs US$463.7/t

HCC FOB Australia US$223.3/t vs US$220.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.9/t vs US$105.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$89,860/t vs US$88,236/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$18,545/t vs US$17,919/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,630/t vs US$1,570/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,058/mtu vs US$1,038/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$104/lb vs US$103/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.1/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,124/t vs US$1,124/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

EVs and Batteries

Company News:

Energy Fuels (UUUU US) $18.6, Mkt Cap $4.4bn – Toliara updated feasibility study results

• Uranium and rare earths producer Energy Fuels reports FS results from their Toliara Project, now named Vara Mada, in Madagascar.
• The study envisages a rare earth, titanium and zircon production profile over 38 year LOM.
• Energy Fuels intends to ship monazite from Vara Mada to their White Mesa Mill in the US to separate REE oxides.
• The project is expected to produce 959kt ilmenite, 66kt zircon, 8kt rutile and 24kt monazite.
• 73% of revenue from titanium products and 27% from monazite.
• Reserves:
  • 904mt at 6.1% heavy mineral grade, containing 73% ilmenite, 1% rutile, 1% leucoxene, 5.9% zircon and 1.9% monazite.
• Stage 1 CAPEX guided at $769m for a 13mtpa processing plant.
• Stage 2 CAPEX of $142m for a 25mtpa throughput plant.
• Project generates a post-tax NPV10 of $1.8bn with 24.9% IRR.
• Reserve NSR assumes $199/t ilmenite, $1,250/t rutile, $1,200/t zircon, $6,600/t monazite.
• Reserve recoveries guided at 89.6% ilmenite, 49.9% rutile, 77.2% zircon, 78.6% monazite.
• Reserve operating costs of $1/t mined, $0.64/t feed to WCP, $13.4/t feed to MSP for ilmenite and $18/t for rutile and zircon, $3.45/t transportation, $8.9/t wharf cost.

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 1.2p, £129m – FLASH NOTE – TK project funding agreed

BUY – TP 4.9p (from 3.5p)

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• We update KEFI Gold and Copper valuation for the latest equity raise (~$21m @1.3p in late December) and new gold price assumptions ($4,000/oz vs $3,300).
• We include details of the Tulu Kapi Project funding and latest operational update below.
• The Company announced project funding for the $340m Tulu Kapi Gold Project, Ethiopia, in late December.
• $240m covered by senior secured debt, underwritten by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and the Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank (TDB). The agreement was finalised and is pending final sign off. Certain fees already settled from KEFI working capital. One of major requirements was to provide equity risk capital for $100m prepared by KEFI. Remaining requirements for drawdowns expected in 1H26.
• ~$100m equity risk part is comprised of:
  • $20m government equity contribution earned through project infrastructure investment (road and power). The Ethiopian Government to earn into 12% at TKGM, an owner of the license, on completion of road and power infrastructure (exp late 2026). Incl 5% free carry that takes government interest to 17%.
  • $26m conditionally raised through Preference Equity (negotiations in progress to finalise documentation to be approved by project lenders).
  • $30m raised via Gold Streams (term sheet signed with one fund for $20m subject to documentation and $10m subject to DD and documentation)
  • $10m in new KEFI equity raised earlier in 2025
  • $20m in new KEFI equity (1,154m @1.3p, a 10% discount to the last close)
• Additionally, the Company may secure up to $30m in non dilutive equity risk capital including:
  • $20m considered by local investors in the form of Preference Equity (conditional applications stage)
  • $10m with a second royalty fund (non binding term sheet signed)
• Additional funds may be allocated to $15m in cost overrun reserve and $15m funding exploration and development in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia.
• Separately, the Company raised £0.8m in a retail offer (@1.3p).
• The Company is expected to retain 83% effective interest in Tulu Kapi (post 5% government free carry and government 12% earn in).
• Operationally, the Company reported on development works at TK in January:
  • Lycopodium started work as the lead design and construction contractor for the plant and all onsite infrastructure
  • Mining contract competitive tender updated to ensure optimum outcome
  • Ethiopian Electric Power Company and Ethiopian Roads Authority work power supply and new access roads underway
  • Recruitment is in full swing as the team expands amid a two year development plan
  • Company targets commissioning 2027 with full production reached 2028 (SPAe maiden production 2028)
• Separately, in Saudi Arabia, the Company reported its interest in the GMCO JV holding a portfolio of early and advanced exploration precious/base metals assets now stands at ~13% (as of YE25), down from 15% before.
• Operational update to be released after a GMCO review of its portfolio of projects status and plans this month (January).
• The Company suggested that it would invest into the JV further using capital already raised.
• Gold Stream terms:
  • Each $10m tranche entitled to 3% of gold produced from the TKGM mining license until 30koz recovered
  • Post 30koz, the percentage goes down to 2% for the life of mine
  • Streamer pays 20% of market gold price
• Preference Equity terms (KEFI Ethio Prefs):
  • 8y term
  • Fixed FX rate (BIRR to USD) ie redeemable at the same exchange rate as at issuance
  • 15% interest accruing for the first four years and payable in USD or BIRR at fixed at issuance FX rate
  • Exposure to gold price appreciation ie payable amount at maturity can be increased if gold price at the time is above initial levels and amount payable equal to price difference multiplied by the koz equivalent of the initial amount invested.

Conclusion: Agreeing funding is a major de-risking milestone with $340m for the Tulu Kapi Gold Project, Ethiopia, now substantially secured and structured to balance leverage and dilution. ~$21m raised in new equity (@1.3p) in late December contributes towards $100m equity risk part of the funding complementing $240m covered by senior secured bank debt and allows KEFI to retain 83% effective interest in the Tulu Kapi Project.

We remain buyers of KEFI Gold and Copper with an updated risked NAV and TP at ~$690m and 4.9p (from ~$460m and 3.5p). New TP accounts for increased number of shares (extra 1.2bn shares) and warrants following the last equity raise, increased Tulu Kapi effective interest (83% v previously assumed 70%), Gold Stream ($30m for 9% off first 1moz produced and 6% after, with streamer paying 20% spot price; relatively expensive, although, subordinated to debt service) as well as lower GMCO JV interest (13% v 15% previously). Additionally, we updated our gold price assumptions, accounting for most of our TP upgrade, and currently use $4,000/oz, up from $3,300/oz (Risked NAV and TP ~$500m and 3.6p under previously assumed $3,300/oz).

Catalysts

• Major development work start (relocation action plan (RAP), infrastructure, plant and mine) and first debt drawdown (2026)
• First production 2028 (Co guidance 2027)
• GMCO JV exploration results, Jibal Qutman FID (2026), Hawiah FS (2026-27

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Mayfair Gold (MFG CN) C$5.2, Mkt Cap C$347m – Fenn-Gibb PFS outlines 64kozpa Au over 14 year LOM

• Mayfair Gold report PFS results from the Fenn-Gibb Project in Timmins, Ontario.
• The study envisages an open-pit mining operation with modular processing plant designs.
• Development CAPEX guided at C$450m for a 1.75mtpa plant.
• Average gold grade processed guided at 1.29g/t Au and strip ratio of 6x.
• Recoveries guided at 88% for 64kozpa over a 14 year LOM.
• AISC guided at $1,292/oz.
• Post-tax NPV5 expected at C$652m and IRR of 24% using $3,100/oz Au.
• NPV5 increases to C$1.37bn and IRR of 38% at $4,450/oz Au.
• Fenn-Gibb holds 4.3moz at 0.73g/t Au in indicated MRE.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 1.45p, Mkt Cap £33m – 2025 review describes progress at Redmoor where a new MRE is expected later this quarter

• In its final quarter and full year 2025 trading update Strategic Minerals confirms that it will release a mineral resource estimate for its Redmoor project in Cornwall during the current quarter.

• The updated mineral resource estimate will incorporate the results of the 9-hole 2025 drilling campaign which has extended the mineralised envelope at Redmoor and identified additional mineralised zones beyond the Sheeted Vein System (SVS) which underpins the 2019 ‘Inferred’ estimate of 11.7mt at an average grade of 0.56% tungsten trioxide, 0.16% tin and 0.50% copper.
• Today’s trading update also confirms progress with metallurgical test work on the Redmoor mineralisation with recovery rates “of 94.3% tungsten, 95.6% tin, and 90.7% copper”.
• Strategic Minerals also highlights that “Re-analysis of historical samples confirmed previous underreporting of certain samples and an average 9.2% increase in tungsten grades” at Redmoor.
• Elsewhere, Strategic Minerals confirms that it has received “a total of A$0.25 million” on the sale of its Leigh Creek copper project in Australia, with the purchaser, Cuprum Metals, scheduled to pay a further A$1.75m by 31^st May 2026.
• At its Cobre mineral operation in New Mexico, Q4 sales of 16,713t generated US$1.51m of revenue bringing full year sales in 2025 to 61,279t worth US$4.23m.
• Executive Director, Mark Burnett, described 2025 as a “transformational year for Strategic Minerals … [with reorganisation helping it to] … deliver increased near-term revenue from Cobre and long-term value creation from the Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper Project”.
• He described the drilling at Redmoor as having “gone exceptionally well so far, and… [said that] … we anticipate further resource growth and additional efficiencies for future infill drilling as part of a pre-feasibility programme”.

Conclusion: A renewed focus on the Redmoor project in Cornwall, including additional drilling and a detailed review and resampling of previous work is expected to deliver a revised mineral resource estimate later this quarter.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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