SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Friday 5th December 2025

Copper climbs again as Mercuria withdraws large volumes from LME warehouses

Tin prices make new three-year high

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – Divesting iron ore assets to settle debt

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Exploration Discovery of the Year Award alongside Endeavour Mining

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) – Issue of shares and options

Northern Star (NST AU) – Exploration update identifies several high-priority resource addition opportunities

Copper ($11,618/t) climbs again as Mercuria withdraws large volumes from LME warehouses

• Copper prices have spiked, now up 8.3% over the past month 28% over the past 12.
• Copper broke through record high levels having consolidated around $11,000/t for much of November.
• Bloomberg reports that Mercuria has withdrawn $500m worth of copper from LME warehouses.
• This is reportedly the largest cancelation of stock seen in over a decade.
• Several other trading houses are making bullish calls on copper, with IXM and Gunvor both echoing the sentiment.
• COMEX continues to trade at a premium to LME, pushing metal across the Atlantic, as earlier this year.

Tin ($40,055/t) prices make new three-year high

• Tin prices continue to rise on the shutdown of informal alluvial mining operations in Indonesia.
• The Indonesian government is actively engaged in a major, ongoing nationwide crackdown and shutdown of illegal and informal alluvial mining operations.
• Gold and tin operations are being targeted in an effort to combat state resource theft and severe environmental damage.
• President Subianto recently ordered military, police, and customs to run large-scale operations to stop illegal mining, focussing on the Bangka Belitung islands.
• The authorities are reported to have shut down >1,000 illegal tin mining sites while reclaiming substantial areas of illegally mining.
• The government has also dismantled some 723 illegal mining structures in In West Java.
• The authorities have also ordered the temporarily suspension of permits of hundreds of formal mining companies in coal, tin, nickel, and bauxite for failing to meet administrative and environmental obligations, such as submitting work plans or conducting land reclamation.
• Indonesia estimates that stopping illegal tin mining could save the state ~US$ 1.2bn by end-2025 in lost revenue and smuggled goods.

Rio Tinto proprietary copper bioleaching tech, Nuton, produced first copper at Gunnison Copper’s Johnson Camp Mine (JCM) last month.

• The Company reports that processing tech R&D took more than 30 years.
• Technology to run using heap leaching at JCM targeting production of ~30kt of refined copper over a 4y demonstration period.
• Nuton leaches copper from primary sulphide ores allowing to shorten mine development timeline and capex.
• “In an industry where projects typically take about 18 years to move from concept to production, Nuton has now proved its ability to do this in just 18 months”, Rio said.
• The technology may potentially unlock value in low grade sulphide copper projects as well as extending lives and improving economics of already running operations.
• Nuton reports recovery rates of up to 85% from primary sulphides were achieved.
• Nuton eliminates the need for concentration, smelting and refining delivering copper cathode at the mine gate.
• The process uses up to 80% less water.
• Next steps include multi year testing, independent third party verification, and internal review by Rio to ensure consistent recovery rates and environmental performance.

Adonis Pouroulis – in Blue Origin team for New Shepard’s 37^th mission to space

• Adonis Pouroulis will be on Blue Origin’s team for New Shepard’s 37^th mission to space.

• Pouroulis is the founder and chairman of Pella Resources, co-founder of Energy Revolution Ventures, chairman of Rainbow Rare Earths, and the CEO of Chariot Limited.
• We are looking for Rainbow’s shares to fly just as high.

IG TV Commodity Corner (18/11/25):  

ii TV – Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

Japan – The central bank is increasingly expected to lift rates at the coming meeting on 19 December.

• Key members of new PM government would not try to stop in cash the central bank decides to raise rates. (Bloomberg)
• Expectations are for the BOJ to hike to 0.75%.

UK – fund outflows break new record in runup to Budget

• Investors withdrew >£10bn from equity funds over the past six months in the UK with much of the selloff is attributed to substantial uncertainty in the runup to the Budget.
• UK-focused funds were hard-hit in November losing ~£847m, according Calastone
• US outflows also saw £812m in reaction to high AI and Tech market valuations with a total of £3bn pulled from equity funds din November marking the second-worst month on record after October’s record £3.6bn outflow.
• UK funds have seen constant outflows for all except one of the past 55 months, eg since Labour came to power with investors locking in capital gains where possible.
• UK house prices also stagnated in November in the runup to the Budget but remain +0.7% yoy

Russia/Ukraine – Moscow is determined to take Donbas comprised of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by force unless Ukrainian forces withdraw, President Putin said Thursday.

• Russia currently controls just over19% of Ukraine including Crimea, all of Luhansk, more than 80% of Donetsk, about 75% of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, as well as some parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
• Comments follow negotiations with the US regarding a potential peace deal with talks seen to have achieved very little in terms of a cease fire.

Currencies

US$1.1651/eur vs 1.1677/eur previous. Yen 154.91/$ vs 154.88/$. SAr 16.933/$ vs 17.045/$. $1.334/gbp vs $1.335/gbp. 0.663/aud vs 0.661/aud. CNY 7.070/$ vs 7.069/$.

Dollar Index 98.94 vs 98.84 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,218/oz vs US$4,190/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.8moz vs 97.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,662/oz vs US$1,641/oz previous

Palladium US$1,465/oz vs US$1,442/oz previous

Silver US$58.0/oz vs US$57.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,950/oz vs US$7,950/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,647/t vs US$11,385/t previous

Aluminium US$2,914/t vs US$2,882/t previous

Nickel US$14,920/t vs US$14,880/t previous

Zinc US$3,118/t vs US$3,042/t previous

Lead US$2,018/t vs US$2,001/t previous

Tin US$40,055/t vs US$39,815/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$63.3/bbl vs US$62.8/bbl previous

• US Henry Hub prices closed above $5/mmBtu for the first time in almost three years on the back of US weather forecasts for colder-than-normal temperatures and record liquefied natural gas demand in the US, as the EIA reported a 12bcf w/w draw to 3,923bcf (-14bcf expected), with storage inventories now 0.5% below last year’s level and 5.1% above the five-year average.
• GB Energy’s strategic 5-year plan aims to deliver at least 15GW of clean energy generation and storage assets in the UK over the 2026-2030 period by mobilising £15bn of private finance, driven by its investments and long-term partnerships.

Natural Gas €27.2/MWh vs €27.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.0/lb vs $76.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.2/t vs US$104.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$453.9/t vs US$453.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$205.8/t vs US$207.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$107.8/t vs US$107.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$51,480/t vs US$50,035/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$83,099/t vs US$83,326/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,801/t vs US$12,803/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,125/t vs US$1,125/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$758/mtu vs US$758/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$96/lb vs US$96/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.0/kg vs US$23.9/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$265/t vs US$265/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,110/t vs US$1,111/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company news

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) 0.8p, Mkt Cap £3.8m – Divesting iron ore assets to settle debt

• Anglesey Mining have announced a Debt Settlement Agreement.
• The Company reported an outstanding debt position of £4m at 31^st March, with £3.7m owed to the Juno Loan, which was acquired by Energold.
• Energold and Anglesey have agreed to settle the debt via the transfer of Anglesey’s stakes in Grängesberg Iron AB and Labrador Iron Mines Holdings Limited.
• Energold will also provide immediate funding to Anglesey of £350k via warrants.
• The warrant price will be based on the 5 day VWAP of Anglesey to 8^th December, on a one to one basis.
• Energold is owned by John Kearney, who has an interest of 19% of Anglesey’s share capital.
• Brendan Cahill and Jim Williams will join the board.
• Brendan Cahill is Energold’s President and was CEO of Excellon Resources to 2022.
• He is also on the board of Group Eleven and First Nordic Metals.
• Jim Williams was co-founder of Arian Silver from 2005-2018.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 37p, Mkt Cap £265m – Exploration Discovery of the Year Award alongside Endeavour Mining

• Empire Metals has been awarded Exploration Discovery of the Year for its giant Pitfield titanium discovery at the Resourcing Tomorrow Awards in London.
• The award is shared this year alongside Endeavour Mining (FTSE100) for its Assafou gold discovery on the Tanda-Iguela property in eastern Cote d’Ivoire.
• The award is presented to mining projects identified in the past year with ‘the greatest potential to mine.’

• Empire has delivered a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate at Pitfield of 2.2bn at 5.1% TiO2 for 113mt contained TiO2.

Conclusion: Pitfield has the potential to be a multi-generational asset in a Tier One jurisdiction in a commodity with limited long-life development projects. Focus is currently on optimising the flowsheet to maximise margins and capital intensity as management progresses the asset through feasibility and financing stages. We see validation from downstream titanium players as a key derisking step going forward.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 0.95p, Mkt Cap £18m – Issue of shares and options

• New Frontier Minerals reports the issue of 107,142,857 shares at A$0.021/s in relation to the share placement on 25^th November.
• The Company is also issuing a further 53,571,430 attaching options.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

Northern Star (NST AU) A$26, Mkt Cap A$38bn – Exploration update identifies several high-priority resource addition opportunities

• Northern Star has provided an exploration update for its organic growth projects.
• The Company confirms A$225m in exploration commitment for FY26.
• FY26 exploration spend is split 73/27 between in-mine growth and regional exploration.
• Exploration to date has yielded encouraging results.
• At KCGM, mineralisatio at Fimiston South was extended 800m below the existing resource, with new prospects identified at Mt Charlotte.
• A new prospect has been identified to the west of Red Hill MRE, while Hercules drilling is boosting confidence in the mineralisation.
• Management is confident new high-grade ore will be identified to supply the expanded Fimiston mill from FY27.
• At Yandal, Company sees mine life extensions via additional ounces proximal to current mining infrastructure.
• At Pogo, extension drilling has identified several high priority targets.
• New drill drives at Pogo supported extensional drilling, with priority targets identified as Goodpaster, Star and Central Link.
• Company also has identified additional ounce opportunities at Mt Berghaus.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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