SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Friday 13th February 2026

Gold rebounds post a market sell off ahead of US inflation numbers

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Largo (LGO CN) – Missed payment under the iron ore calcine sales contract

Rare Earths – Chinese mining industry and business authorities are set to hold a policy meeting next month on rare earths and other critical minerals exports.

• The Commerce Ministry and customs authorities are to brief firms on export controls, customs clearance and compliance requirements.
• Oher metals are reported to include tungsten, tin and antimony.
• Widely followed Chinese NdPr oxide prices have recently crossed the $110/kg mark, the level the US Department of War and MP Materials agreed as a floor price in a deal last year, and currently seen quoted at >$120/kg amid concerns over supply availability ex China.
• Heavy REE like Dy and Tb prices are reported to be trading at $4,800/kg and $1,100/kg in the West or ~at 4-5x levels seen in China.
• China introduced export controls on 12 REEs including Tb/Dy, magnet equipment announced restrictions on foreign products using Chinese REEs last year.
• Takeaways of the REE meeting will be closely followed by users of permanent magnets critical to development of a number of industries including renewable energy, EVs, robotics and defence among others.

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel’s John Meyer

Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1859/eur vs 1.1881/eur previous. Yen 153.53/$ vs 153.02/$. SAr 16.013/$ vs 15.886/$. $1.362/gbp vs $1.364/gbp. 0.707/aud vs 0.713/aud. CNY 6.912/$ vs 6.901/$.

Dollar Index 97.05 vs 96.81 previous.

Economics

US – Equities closed lower yesterday following a sharp sell off led by declines in tech names.

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices were down 1.6% and 2.0%.
• Treasuries gained driven by safe haven demand with 10y yields down 8bp to 4.1%.
• Precious metals got caught up in a volatile day with gold down 3.2% and trading ~$4,930/oz and silver off up to 11%.

Inflation numbers are out later today with estimates for a slowdown in both headline and core measures.

• January CPI and core CPI are estimated at 2.5% (2.7% Dec) and 2.5% (2.6%).

The US is sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East as negotiations with Iran continue.

• The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford will be relocating to the region from the Caribbean, the NYT cited US officials.

China – Beijing confirmed there are talks over US President planned visit in April.

• The meeting may see a trade truce get extended by up to one year.

US/Taiwan – The US and Taiwan signed a final trade agreement that would see the latter significantly increasing purchases of US goods.

• Under the agreement US confirmed its 15% import tax while Taiwan is to eliminate or lower charges on nearly all US goods.
• Taiwan also committed to buy $44bn of LNG and crude, $15bn of civil aircraft and engines, $25bn of power equipment and generators, marine and steelmaking equipment.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,983/oz vs US$5,063/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.0moz vs 100.1moz previous

Platinum US$2,039/oz vs US$2,111/oz previous

Palladium US$1,663/oz vs US$1,715/oz previous

Silver US$79.0/oz vs US$83.6/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 842.1moz vs 842.1moz previous

Rhodium US$10,750/oz vs US$10,550/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,860/t vs US$13,273/t previous

Aluminium US$3,053/t vs US$3,157/t previous

Nickel US$17,095/t vs US$17,695/t previous

Zinc US$3,336/t vs US$3,436/t previous

Lead US$1,968/t vs US$1,995/t previous

Tin US$47,630/t vs US$50,150/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$67.4/bbl vs US$69.0/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices moved lower ahead of the US President’s Day weekend after the IEA’s February Oil Market Report slightly revised global oil demand growth forecasts downward m/m to 850kb/d due to economic uncertainty and higher prices. Despite disruptions in January, the IEA expects global oil supply growth to average 2.4mb/d this year leading to a surplus of 3.84mb/d (from 4.09mb/d).

Natural Gas €32.5/MWh vs €32.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $89.0/lb vs $88.7/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$97.0/t vs US$99.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.7/t vs US$466.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$245.0/t vs US$241.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$118.0/t vs US$115.7/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$122,982/t vs US$123,169/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$19,460/t vs US$19,490/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,648/mtu vs US$1,648/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$131/lb vs US$131/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,136/t vs US$1,137/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Trump administration revokes landmark ruling on greenhouse gases

• Donald Trump’s administration has revoked the US Environmental Protection Agency’s 2009 “endangerment finding”, a landmark ruling that defined greenhouse gases as a danger to public health and welfare.
• The White House describes the move as the largest deregulation in US history, arguing it will lift burdens on industry and boost economic growth.
• Revoking the finding undermines the legal basis for many existing federal climate regulations, including limits on emissions from power plants and vehicles.
• Federal greenhouse gas and fuel-efficiency standards for new cars and trucks will be repealed and not replaced, removing nationwide limits on tailpipe CO2 emissions.
• Carmakers will gain flexibility to keep selling more petrol and diesel models in the US market, and are able to slow or scale back EV investment that was driven primarily by federal climate standards.
• Environmental groups warn the decision will increase air pollution and accelerate climate change, leading to higher health costs and more extreme weather impacts for Americans.
• Legal challenges are expected, with campaigners and some US states likely to argue in court that the administration is ignoring scientific evidence on climate risks.

China’s January EV retail sales down 20% yoy

• BEV retail sales in January were 348,000 units, a 17% year-on-year decrease, marking the first yoy decline since March 2024.
• The combination of the seasonal slowdown at the start of the year and reduced policy support has impacted China’s NEV sales.

Company News:

Largo (LGO CN) C$2.1, Mkt Cap C$175m – Missed payment under the iron ore calcine sales contract

• The Company reports a missed initial payment on the $56m iron ore calcine contract.
• The team comments that the contract will be terminated if the payment is not received by February 20.
• The contract was agreed in January and related to the sale of 4.5mt of iron ore calcine material accumulated as a by-product from the past 11 years of Largo’s vanadium production at the Maracas Menchen Mine, Brazil.
• The first payment of $2.9m was due January 30.
• The contract was planned to help monetise existing stockpiles and provide liquidity at the time of depressed vanadium prices.
• The stock closed 18% lower on the TSX yesterday.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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