Copper prices pick up as US continues strikes on Iran and Strait of Hormuz becomes a dangerous passage
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Elevra Lithium (ELV AU) – 4QFY26 production update
G Mining (GMIN CN) – Tocantinzinho production to ramp up in 2H26 on track for annual guidance
Lundin Gold (LUN CN) – 2Q26 production update with guidance reiterated
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Retail offer
Shuka Minerals (SKA LN) – Latest drilling tests northern areas of mineralisation at Kabwe
Copper (US$13,526/t) picks up as US continues strikes on Iran and Strait of Hormuz becomes a dangerous passage
- The world is adjusting to a longer-term on / off war with Iran and frequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Sulphur shipments through the Strait have caused some minor disruption to miners so far but with potential for more to come.
- While sulphur is not in particular short supply, it is the disruption of supply chains with China banning all sulphuric acid exports that has caused problems for a few miners.
- The market is still looking for Trump to impose import tariffs on copper.
Aluminium – Alamtri (ADRO IDX) IDR2,380. Mkt cap IDR70tn – Alamtri exports its first aluminium into short US market
- Alamtri, A large Indonesian largest coal miner, made its first aluminium exports in June, shipping 31,494t to the US and 3,569t to South Korea.
- Alamtri is looking to sell up to 350,000t this year. Both shipments were bought by major traders.
- The new aluminium smelter is run by Kalimantan Aluminium Industry ‘KAI’, a joint venture with China’s Aumay Technology, in which Alamtri holds about two-thirds.
- Middle East fighting cut supply from the Gulf and pushed US aluminium prices to a record last month.
Lithium – Chile’s lithium export earnings jump to $3.2bn in H1
- Chile earned $3.2bn from lithium exports in H1, nearly three times a year earlier according to the Chile central bank.
- Lithium production is from SQM and Albemarle which started off as major potash producers.
- The Pinochet dictatorship reserved all lithium to the State in 1979, citing national interest and potential nuclear applications.
- Lithium extraction was tightly state controlled and secretive for many years due to the US atom bomb program.
Uranium – Australia agrees to sell uranium to India as India grows nuclear power
- Australia has agreed to sell uranium to India for peaceful power use, signed during PM Modi’s visit.
- India is keen to grow domestic nuclear power generation >10x to 100 GW by 2047
- Australia abandoned its three-uranium mine policy in 2007 but still operates just three uranium mines at Olympic Dam, Four Mile (ISL) and Honeymoon (2023 restart).
- Ongoing regulations and state bans make it difficult for uranium mines to open across much of Australia.
Canada signs over $700m of deals with Saudi Arabia across mining and energy
- Canada signed 13 agreements worth more than ~$710m of deals with Saudi Arabia, covering mining, critical minerals, energy and AI.
- Mark Carney met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah, on a wider trip that also took in the UAE and Qatar.
Deep Sea mining – IUCN report suggests 60% of vent species are threatened by the mining of deep-sea hydrothermal vents.
- The IUCN ‘International Union for Conservation of Nature’ has renewed calls for a moratorium ahead of to regulate deep sea mining.
- 125 out of 201 known mollusc species which live around hydrothermal vents are now included on its updated Red List as the mining of these sites would significantly disrupt their habitats.
- A recent study shows macrofaunal animal density fell 37% and species richness declined 32% within two years after a deep-sea mining machine disturbed the seabed in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the North Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Mexico.
- The project mined ~3,000t of polymetallic nodules at a depth of 4,280m and was funded via The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC), subsidiary Nauru Ocean Resources.
- This is not good news for deep ocean mining of high-grade vent systems using mechanical mining on the sea floor.
- We believe the hoovering up of polymetallic nodules may prove to be significantly less disruptive with simpler technology and avoiding the unique ecologic diversity of deep-sea vents.
SK Hynix, a Korean memory chips manufacturer, raised $26.5bn in its Nasdaq listing marking the largest ever US listing by a foreign Company.
- Priced at $149 per share, the raise was seven times oversubscribed.
- Proceeds to be used for manufacturing capacity buildout.
- One of the leading suppliers of high bandwidth memory chips (HBM), the Group benefited from increased demand for AI related infrastructure.
- 1Q26 revenue nearly tripled to Won 52.6tn with the stock up >600% over the last year.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.27% | at | 52,487 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.20% | at | 68,558 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.90% | at | 24,247 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -1.00% | at | 3,996 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -2.2 | at | 4.53 |
Currencies
US$1.1439/eur vs1.1442/eur previous. Yen 161.73/$ vs162.30/$. SAr 16.287/$ vs16.366/$. GBP 1.343/USD vs $1.343/$. AUD 0.695/$ vs0.694/USD. CNY 6.781/$ vs6.795/$.
Dollar Index 100.80 vs100.83 previous.
Yen gained after Japan’s Finance Minister spoke of plans to encourage pension funds to increase investment in domestic fiscal assets.
- Five years ago the yen was trading at 110/USD. The massive 46% loss of value in the yen has been driven by:
- Carry trade on the differential of low Japanese interest rates vs the US Fed and others
- Energy imports, largely gas following the shutdown of nuclear power after Fukushima
- Trade pressures with China
- Japanese investment into assets outside Japan
- Currency hedging, again relating to the carry trade
Economics
Kevin Warsh picks ex BOE Governor Mervyn King and tech investor Marc Andreeseen among others to modernise the US central bank.
- “The US economy has changed significantly over the last generation, and never more so than right now,” Warsh commented on the news.
- “I am honoured that the best minds from a range of disciplines have agreed to work with us to sharpen our performance as an institution.”
- Appointees will lead task forces supported by Fed staff and will set the reform agenda in five areas including: communications, the balance sheet, modernisation of data collection, productivity in the AI era and inflation frameworks.
China – inflation contained as state energy reserves cushion shock from closure of Strait of Hormuz
- Consumer prices fell -0.3% mom in June
- CPI also fell to 1% yoy from 1.2%yoy
- Core CPI fell to 1.0% from 1.1% a new low since January.
- PPI Producer prices rose to 4.1% yoy from 3.9% driven by higher coal, electrical machinery, electronics and ferrous metals.
- China’s Anti-involution policy is encouraging prices to rise in sectors where over competition is seen as having driven prices too low.
- Solar and EV production are two key sectors being addressed
- Producer prices fell -0.3% mom in response to a fall in oil prices in June
Indonesia threatens to review miners’ permits if they refuse its new B50 fuel
- Indonesia will review RKAB mining permit of firms that refuse to use B50 diesel (50% palm oil) launched by President Prabowo on 9 July.
- The B50 requirement started on 1 July with full implementation required by 1 October, giving miners just three months to switch.
- The idea is to halt diesel imports and burn more local palm oil with Indonesia using 38-40mkl of diesel with 3-4mkl of imports.
- B50 diesel is more expensive hence some resistance to the imposition.
Iran – US hit >170 Iranian military targets over the past two days, including air defense, missile and drone sites, military speed boats, and logistics infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz
- A US strike hit a railway bridge used for trade routes with China and Russia (Fars News Agency)
- A US missile struck near the Bushehr nuclear power station (Iranian state media)
- Iran threatens wider retaliation and launches regional attacks The IRGC Navy warned that any US interference in navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would receive a decisive response, adding that continued U.S. military operations would seriously hinder the Strait’s gradual reopening.
- Iranian military officials claimed they targeted Patriot air defense systems in Kuwait, an early warning site in Qatar, and US fuel storage facilities in Bahrain using drones.
- This marked the first reported Iranian attack on Qatar in more than three months.
- Iran also launched missiles toward Jordan. Air defenses engaged missiles over Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, while operations at Amman International Airport were temporarily suspended.
- A new wave of Iranian attacks also targeted Iraq, triggering sirens at US bases in Baghdad and Erbil.
- An Iranian military source is quoted as saying Tehran would soon launch a “massive attack” on US bases in the region.
- The threat was repeated by a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. (Nournews)
- “We have warned that any attack will be met with an immediate and widespread response. If Trump wants oil prices to rise, we welcome that.” (Al-Mayadeen)
Former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was buried at a shrine in Mashhad following a week of funeral processions and rallies.
Lebanon – Israel’s IDF continue to dismantle Hezbollah tunnels and infrastructure in southern Lebanon
- The work shows the area was heavily fortified with extensive terrorist infrastructure with launch shafts aimed toward Israel including mortars, launchers, RPG rockets, and other weapons.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,113/oz vsUS$4,110/oz previous
Gold ETFs 96.4moz vs96.4moz previous
Platinum US$1,633/oz vsUS$1,614/oz previous
Palladium US$1,277/oz vsUS$1,240/oz previous
Silver US$60.1/oz vsUS$59.1/oz previous
Silver ETFs 783.0moz vs783.0moz previous
Rhodium US$8,200/oz vsUS$8,200/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$13,526/t vs US$13,388/t previous
Aluminium US$3,184/t vsUS$3,152/t previous
Nickel US$16,610/t vsUS$16,550/t previous
Zinc US$3,624/t vsUS$3,587/t previous
Lead US$1,894/t vsUS$1,903/t previous
Tin US$53,585/t vsUS$53,435/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$76.1/bbl vsUS$77.9/bbl previous
Natural Gas €49.1/MWh vs€48.4/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.3/lb vs$85.3/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.3/t vsUS$98.9/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$472.1/t vsUS$471.7/t
HCC FOB Australia US$237.5/t vsUS$238.3/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$131.3/t vsUS$128.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vsUS$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$112,669/t vsUS$112,431/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$22,195/t vsUS$22,883/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,245/t vsUS$2,245/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vsUS$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,705/mtu vsUS$1,705/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$225/lb vsUS$226/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vsUS$400/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vsUS$5.7/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.0/kg vsUS$27.0/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$218/t vsUS$217/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vsUS$2,809/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,158/t vsUS$1,155/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vsUS$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$397.5/t vsUS$397.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,075.0/kg vsUS$4,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$410.0/kg vs US$410.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$31.5/lb vsUS$31.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
Recycling – Indonesia plans to recycle used EV batteries from 2030 to keep nickel value at home
- Indonesia is building a full battery chain, from mine to recycling, through state firm Indonesia Battery Corporation with Antam and China’s CATL group.
- From 2030 it plans to recycle used nickel-rich ‘NMC’ batteries, which give back nickel, cobalt and lithium.
- Recycling gives Indonesia a second source of nickel, recovering it from old batteries instead of only mining it.
EV batteries – Average EV battery retains ~95% of its original range after five years on the road in study of 1bn miles of EV driving.(Recurrent)
- Newer EVs now have lifespans comparable to petrol and diesel cars even under heavier use according to research from the LSE on >300m UK vehicle test record
- Improvements in battery chemistry, battery-management systems, and thermal regulation are cited as the main drivers of the longer lifespans and lower costs.
- Li-ion pack prices have fallen roughly 93% since 2010, reaching an average of $108/kWh in 2025 (BloombergNEF).
- An out-of-warranty replacement can still run $5,000–$16,000 (AutoPacific)
- Early EVs saw 1 in 12 vehicles built between 2011–2016 needing battery replacement. Modern EVs are faring very much better.
- Fast DC charging degrades batteries ~2x as fast on average as lower-power charging while resting at 100% or 0% for extended periods and extreme temperatures also accelerate range loss (Geotab).
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.7% | -0.9% | Freeport-McMoRan | -1.3% | -11.0% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.9% | -2.0% | Vale | -0.3% | -4.3% |
| Glencore | 2.1% | -2.6% | Newmont Mining | -1.7% | -7.2% |
| Anglo American | 2.6% | 0.3% | Fortescue | -1.9% | -0.6% |
| Antofagasta | 2.6% | 2.8% | Teck Resources | 0.0% | -8.2% |
Elevra Lithium (ELV AU) A$8.9, Mkt Cap A$1.7bn – 4QFY26 production update
- The Company reports 4QFY26 production at the North American Lithium operation in Quebec, Canada.
- NAL produced 54.5kt SC, up 15%qoq and the second higher quarterly output.
- FY26 production 198.0kt SC.
- Sales 34.0kt at average realised price of US$919/SC FOB.
- Low realised price relative to spot reflects lagged pricing mechanism based on average market prices during October 2025 to March 2026.
- 1QFY27 onwards should align better with prevailing spot market prices.
G Mining (GMIN CN) C$43, Mkt Cap C$10bn – Tocantinzinho production to ramp up in 2H26 on track for annual guidance
- The Company released 2Q26 preliminary production result.
- Gold production was 36.8koz (+16%qoq) at the 100%-owned Tocantinzinho Gold Mine in Para State, Brazil.
- The plant processed 1.0mt at 1.23g/t and 91.9% recoveries.
- YTD production was 68.7koz.
- YTD sales were 71.2koz.
- Production is expected to pick up in 2H26 on access to higher grade Phase 2 mineralisation, in line with the mine plan.
- 2026 guidance reiterated at 160-190koz (2H26 expected to account for ~62% of annual production).
Lundin Gold (LUN CN) C$34, Mkt Cap C$29bn – 2Q26 production update with guidance reiterated
- The Company reports 2Q26 production results from the Fruta del Norte gold mine in southeast Ecuador.
- Production 119koz (-15%yoy).
- Lower production is attributed to weaker processed grades (8.3g/t, -20%yoy).
- 500kt processed at 8.3g/t and 89.1% recoveries,
- YTD production 239koz (-7%yoy).
- Sold 225.7koz (-11%yoy) at an average realised gold price of $4,662 (+44%yoy).
- 2026 guidance reiterated at 475-525koz.
Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) 0.47p, Mkt Cap £1.3m – Retail offer
(Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)
- Following the £2.4m placing and subscription priced at 0.5p/share earlier this week, Phoenix Copper confirms that it has raised a further £67,218 from its retail offer.
- A further ~13.4m shares will be issued to retail shareholders although Phoenix Copper “will require additional share authorities … conditional, inter alia, upon Shareholders approving the resolutions at the Annual General Meeting being held on 24 July 2026”.
- “In addition, subject to shareholder approval… the Company also proposes to issue warrants to subscribe for New Ordinary Shares to all participants in the Fundraising, including the Retail Offer on the basis of one warrant for every three Ordinary Shares subscribed for in the Retail Offer”.
- The warrants “will be exercisable for a period of two years” at a price of 1p/share.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Phoenix Copper
Shuka Minerals (SKA LN) 2.6p, Mkt Cap £3.2m – Latest drilling tests northern areas of mineralisation at Kabwe
- Shuka Minerals reports the completion of its sixth and seventh drillholes at the former Anglo American Kabwe zinc mine in central Zambia.
- The drilling tests the “Speaks and Mine Club areas some 1km+ NW from the Pit 2 area where … [the company has focussed its] … studies to date”.
- Hole KBDD-06 was completed at a depth of 269m and tested the “northern part of the Speaks / Mine Club area which represents the northern extension of the old (and a previously unexploited section) of the Kabwe Zinc-Lead-Copper deposit”.
- “It intersected a sequence of massive to banded dolomites, the Kabwe mineralisation host rock, with mineralised veins from 55 to 91m downhole and 160 to 193m downhole”.
- Hole KBDD-07 (173.10m) also tested the same northern part of the area and intersected “Three mineralised zones … at 20 to 25m, 83 to 88m and 140 to 142m downhole”.
- Preliminary grade determinations using pXRF analysis “will be verified in due course with JORC/NI 43 101 laboratory analysis and testing”.
- The company comments that “the mineralisation in the northerly area, some 1km from the main Pit 2 area, occurs in numerous veins … [and although] … the average grade was lower in KBDD06 and KBDD07 than the exceptional grades encountered thus far in the current drilling campaign, the presence of high-grade sections and mineralisation in general in these holes is highly encouraging”.
- Hole KBDD-08 is currently being drilled and will test the central part of the Speaks and Mine Club mineralisation drilled in holes 06 and 07.
- CEO, Richard Lloyd explained that the “northern areas of the Kabwe Project are less defined so the programme here is much more of a true exploration drilling programme … [and said that the latest drilling] … demonstrated the northerly reaches of the orebodies”.
Conclusion: Drilling of the northern areas of mineralisation at Kabwe successfully encountered mineralisation; formal assay results to confirm grades are awaited.
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Sales
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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