SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 9th July 2025

Copper slides on LME following sharp jump in US after Trump’s 50% tariff threat

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – Additional exploration licenses granted in Botswana

G Mining (GMIN CN) – Nameplate capacity reached at Tocantinzinho Gold Mine

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) – Quarterly production data as Kakula dewatering ongoing

NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) – High-grade gold in quartz veins drilled at Lunahuasi

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – JORC exploration target at Mbe

Oscillate PLC (MUSH LN)  – HoT signed with Kalahari Copper Ltd

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) – Teeside site sold for £3.5m

West African Resources (WAF AU) – Production data as Kiaka comes online

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – Increased ownership of Hydrogen Valley and biofuel supply agreement

Copper ($9,600/t) slides on LME following sharp jump in US after Trump’s 50% tariff threat

• Trump called for 50% copper tariffs amid the ongoing Section 232 inquest into the metal.
• Lutnick subsequently confirmed this, stating that ‘the idea is to bring copper production home.’
• This pushed COMEX prices to $5.5/lb, up 17% yesterday evening.
• This saw a 24% premium between London and US prices.
• The move lower in LME prices may reflect traders beginning to unwind positions in a ‘sell the news’ event.
• However, the elevated premium in the US is expected to see continued flows into COMEX warehouses as traders look to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity before tariffs set in, currently expected August 1^st.
• Chile ships 500ktpa to the US, leaving it particularly vulnerable.

Economics

US – President Trump stepping up pressure on countries to accelerate trade talks and agree a deal refusing to extend the deadline past early August.

• “TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
• The administration is considering a new tariff rate on the EU within the next two days driven by frustration over the bloc’s levies placed on US tech firms.

Trump announced a 50% copper import tax with copper futures climbing >15% on the day marking the largest intraday increase in data going back to at least 1988.

• Additionally, Trump promised new rates on imports of pharmaceuticals with drug producers potentially facing a as tax as high as 200% on imports.

China – Inflation remains weak maintaining pressure on policymakers to ramp up stimulus.

• CPI unexpectedly climbed 0.1%yooy in June ending a four month falling streak.
• Producer prices dropped 3.6%yoy marking the strongest drop since July 2023.
• Global trade barriers weighed on export heavy sectors.

Currencies

US$1.1718/eur vs 1.1760/eur previous. Yen 146.75/$ vs 146.06/$. SAr 17.798/$ vs 17.739/$. $1.360/gbp vs $1.364/gbp. 0.654/aud vs         0.654/aud. CNY 7.181/$ vs 7.170/$.

Dollar Index 97.52 vs   97.24 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,290/oz vs US$3,332/oz previous

Gold ETFs 90.5moz vs 90.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,353/oz vs US$1,379/oz previous

Palladium US$1,105/oz vs US$1,122/oz previous

Silver US$36.6/oz vs US$36.8/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,600/oz vs US$5,525/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,624/t vs US$9,877/t previous

Aluminium US$2,584/t vs US$2,590/t previous

Nickel US$15,020/t vs US$15,150/t previous

Zinc US$2,731/t vs US$2,703/t previous

Lead US$2,046/t vs US$2,049/t previous

Tin US$33,095/t vs US$33,520/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$70.1/bbl vs US$69.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged higher as the geopolitical risk premium strengthened and as the EIA’s July STEO report lowered US crude oil production forecasts m/m by ~50kb/d to average of 13.4mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. The EIA also expects average 1.1mb/d global oil inventory builds to put consistent downward pressure on oil prices.
• The API estimated an unexpected 7.1mb w/w build (-2.8mb exp) to crude, partially offset by draws of 2.2mb to gasoline and 0.8mb to distillate stocks.
• European energy prices remain elevated as European temperatures plateau as France’s nuclear generation rose 7% w/w to 71% of 61.4GW maximum capacity. Switzerland’s Beznau nuclear power station has also restarted electricity generation after a shutdown last week due to high water temperatures in the Aare River.

Natural Gas €34.3/MWh vs €33.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $73.8/lb vs $74.9/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$102.6/t vs US$102.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$458.0/t vs US$458.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$177.0/t vs US$177.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$112.0/t vs US$110.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$63,226/t vs US$62,901/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,704/t vs US$8,689/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$670/t vs US$660/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$433/mtu vs US$428/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.0/kg vs US$24.0/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$289/t vs US$289/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,093/t vs US$1,095/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Company News

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) 0.24p, Mkt Cap £1.3m – Additional exploration licenses granted in Botswana

• Arkle Resources has boosted its licence package in Botswana, securing an additional block in the Makgadikgadi Salt Pans.
• The licence covers 775km2 and is considered prospective for lithium brines.
• Due diligence on the licences has identified brines on the licence, with lithium identified in all samples alongside magnesium grades.
• Arkle is planning to drill at their two existing licences, with plans set to be modified following the awarding of this licence.

Conclusion: Arkle continue to bolster their lithium licence package in Botswana, where they are exploring for economic lithium brines in the Makgadikgadi Salt Pans.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Arkle

G Mining (GMIN CN) C$17, Mkt Cap C$3.9bn – Nameplate capacity reached at Tocantinzinho Gold Mine

• Emerging gold producer G Mining report its Tocantinzinho Gold Mine in Brazil has reached nameplate throughput
• The mine processed 1mt in 2Q25 at 1.45g/t Au and 90.3% recoveries, producing 42.6koz Au.
• This compares to 0.9mt at 1.4g/t Au and 88% recoveries in 1Q25 for 35.6koz.
• Higher recoveries and processing stability supported by the new SAG mill liner implemented earlier this year.
• Company retains production guidance of 175-200koz Au for 2025.
• Tocantinzinho Project:

• • Reserves of 2moz at 1.24g/t Au.for 10 year LOm
  • Post-tax NPV5 of US$1bn at US$2,000/oz Au for IRR of 34%, targeting 175kozpa at AISC of US$681/oz over LOM.

• Oko West financing and construction decision due 2H25 following final environmental permit due 3Q25.
• Oko West Project:

• • 6mtpa plant, CAPEX of US$972m, reserves of 4.6moz at 1.89g/t Au.
  • Post-tax NPV5 of US$2.2bn at $2,500/oz Au for IRR of 27%.
  • Average gold production of 350kozpa over 12 years at AISC of US$1,123/oz.

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) C$10.5, Mkt Cap C$14bn – Quarterly production data as Kakula dewatering ongoing

• Ivanhoe reports 112kt Cu produced by Kamoa-Kakula in 2Q25.
• Ore milled at 3.6mt at 3.58% Cu (3.7mt at 4.1% Cu previous quarter).
• Recoveries fell to 85.4% from 87.4% prior quarter.
• Management notes dewatering activities have seen water levels on the eastern side of Kakula decrease ‘modestly’ ahead of Stage Two dewatering.
• Commissioning of the 500ktpa direct-to-blister smelter due to start September 2025 with first production due October 2025.
• Kipushi produced 42kt Zn from 153kt at 33% Zn feed grade and 85% recoveries, near-record production and expected to improve in 2H25.
• Platreef first production on schedule for 4Q25., with stoping expected to start 1Q26.
• Ivanhoe has also signed a prepayment facility with Trafigura for $200m for the remaining 20% of copper anode production from Kamoa’s smelter.

NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) C$16.4, Mkt Cap C$3.4bn – High-grade gold in quartz veins drilled at Lunahuasi

• NGEx Minerals reports further drilling results from its Lunahuasi copper-gold-silver project in Argentina.
• Drilling includes:

• • DPDH044: 50.5m at 10.68% CuEq from 479m
  • DPDH045: 15.40m at 10.28% CuEq from 191.60m
  • DPDH046: 104.80m at 2.97% Cu, 14.74 g/t Au and 65.0 g/t Ag from 447.00m

• Management note the Company has now discovered ‘ultra high-grade free gold in quartz veins’ which ‘adds an entirely new dimension to the Lunahuasi project.’
• The team draws parallels to high-sulphidation epithermal deposits with high-grade gold quartz veins, including El Indo, previously mined by Barrick.
• Management suggest that this new style of high-grade mineralisation ‘provides us with the possibility of outlining substantial value in a gold-dominant style of mineralisation.’

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.21p, Mkt Cap £8.25m – JORC exploration target at Mbe

(Oriole Resources holds 90% of Mbe and 90% of the Bibemi gold projects)

• Oriole Resources has reported a maiden JORC exploration target for its Mbe project, where it has been drilling alongside JV partner BCM International.
• The Exploration Target comprises two targets, MB01-N and MB01-S:

• • MB01-N: 15-20mt at 0.77-0.94g/t Au for 370-605koz Au
  • MB01-S: 18-24mt at 0.77-0.94g/t Au for 445-730koz Au

• The targets were generated using 13 holes drilled at MB01-S and 2024 trenching data across both targets.
• Company suggests the exploration target ‘remains open in all directions and at depth,’ with a maiden MRE due 4Q25.
• Mbe Phase 1 drilling is due for completion later this quarter.
• Alongside the Exploration Target, Oriole also report metallurgical testwork from Mbe.
• The Company notes fresh ore is dominated by fine-grained telluride mineralisation, similar to that seen at Bibemi.
• Leaching test data shows 54.4% of gold is recoverable via CIL processing, with 12.4% recoverable by hydrochloric acid leaching.
• 30% of gold mineralisation associated with pyrite, with the oxidation of a flotation concentrate followed by cyanidation being studied to boost recoveries.
• The Company plans further metallurgical testwork to develop an optimal processing route, including the Albion process.

Conclusion: Oriole has delivered a JORC Exploration Target at their Mbe project totalling 33-44mt at 0.77-0.95g/t Au for 815-1,355koz Au. Focus now is on delivering a maiden MRE at the Company’s greenfield discovery in Cameroon, currently guiding for 4Q25. The Company is also progressing additional metallurgical testwork for an optimised flowsheet for Mbe, where gold mineralisation is similar to that at Bibemi. We look forward to further drilling results and MRE progress from Mbe.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole

Oscillate PLC (MUSH LN) 0.004p, Mkt Cap £1.4m – HoT signed with Kalahari Copper Ltd

• Oscillate, a copper exploration company, has signed non-binding HoT with Kalahari Copper.
• Kalahari Copper holds 17 licences in the Kalahari Copper Belt.
• Licences lie along strike and adjacent to MMG’s Deposit1, Sandfire’s T3 Motheo deposit and the Kopane mine.
• Dalsu Prospects

• • Targeting strata bound sediment-hosted copper-silver deposits.
  • Soil sampling and geophysics has been completed
  • Drilling over 2,084m yielded copper intersections >1% over 2/3 holes.
  • Prospects PL232 and PL2474 will be highest priority and lie alng strike from MMG’s operations.

• Terms:

• • Oscillate has paid £500k for an exclusivity DD period expiring 30^th September 2025.
  • Subsequentl to satisfactory due diligence, Oscillate will pay a consideration equivalent to 30% of Oscillate’s issued and outstanding shares.
  • Terms also include a payment of £1.5m in cash, followed by a series of milestone payments of £1.5m each on delivery of a JORC MRE, PFS and FID.
  • Kalahari will also receive a 1.9% NSR should the licences be sold on within three years along with 80% of a contingent £2.5m fee payable by Sandfire.

Conclusion: Oscillate is working to secure a large-scale exploration package in the Kalahari Copper Belt, which hosts several large-scale operations.

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) A$0.30, Mkt Cap A$126m – Teeside site sold for £3.5m

• The Company sold its Teeside site in the UK to Sembcorp Utilities (UK) for £3.5m.
• The site was initially secured for the development of a rare earth refinery.
• Sembcorp Utilities is a wholly owned subsidiary of Sembcorp Energy, a heat and power provider to industrial businesses.
• Sembcorp Energy is a subsidiary of a Singapore listed Sembcorp Industries.
• Proceeds will be used for working capital needs and transaction costs related to the proposed acquisition by Shenghe Resources announced earlier.
• Shanghe offered to acquire 100% of Peak for ~A$160m earlier in May.

West African Resources (WAF AU)  A$2.3, Mkt cap A$2.6bn – Production data as Kiaka comes online

• Burkina Faso gold producer WAF reports production results.
• Company produced 45.6koz over the quarter, selling 49.8koz at US$3,282/oz. (48.3koz at US$2,832/oz in 1Q25).
• Mined ounces down 9%qoq on lower throughput on mill maintenance and lower head grade.
• Sanbrado open pit delivered 409kt ore at 0.9g/t Au for 11.8koz au.
• M1S delivered 153kt ore at 6g/t Au for 29.3koz Au.
• Underground mined ounces fell 13%qoq on a 15% reduction in mined grade.
• YTD gold production of 96.5koz.
• Sanbrado guidance retained at 190-210koz at AISC of <US$1,350/oz.
• Kiaka guidance for 2025 remains at 100-150koz.

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.26p, Mkt cap £9.5m – Increased ownership of Hydrogen Valley and biofuel supply agreement

• 80 Mile PLC has confirmed that it has increased its ownership of Hydrogen Valley Limited to 49%, from 24% following a renegotiation of its stage 3 option for a reduced cash payment on £380,000 (formerly £1m) “which will be settled by the novation of a £380,000 working capital loan, that has been provided to HV”.
• As announced in December 2024. the company has an option to acquire 100% of Hydrogen Valley.
• 80 Mile Plc has also provided an update on the activities of Hydrogen Valley’s subsidiary, Greenswitch which has signed an MoU to supply “up to 40,000 tonnes per year (‘tpa’) of biofuel” to Tecnoparco Valbasento (‘Tecnoparco’) … for use in its cogeneration units”.
• Tecnoparco is described as “a multi-utility focused on providing services and utilities to its industrial customers … [including] … water treatment, and the supply of natural gas, electricity, steam, and other products”.
• Today’s announcement explains that “Greenswitch believes this could be the first MOU of several to be signed in the coming months, as there are a growing number of refineries in Italy that are planning to introduce a percentage requirement of biofuel for mixing purposes with crude oil for the production of various products”.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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