Gold smashes through $4,000/oz price barrier indicating potential change in US dollar dominance in global trade
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Alphamin Resources (AFM CN) – FY25 guidance upgraded with step out drilling returning 10m at 41.5% Sn
Anglo American (AAL LN) – Support for Teck’s plans at Quebrada Blanca
Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Tavsan heap-leach expected to produce gold this quarter
Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Timetable to redomicile to the UK
East Star Resources (EST LN) – Progress report on exploration at the Snowy gold project, Kazakhstan
Hamak Strategy (HAMA LN) – Drilling results from the Nimba licence, Liberia
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) – Copper guidance reiterated as dewatering open up high grade mining areas
Gold ($4,036/oz) smashes through price barrier indicating potential change in US dollar dominance in global trade
- The extraordinary strength of the run in gold in Asian trading indicates very substantial financial forces are at work.
- Gold is a huge market with OTC, futures, ETF and other derivatives trading over $200bn a day so it takes big cahonas to move the market.
- We suspect a co-ordinated or, more probably, co-incidental effort by a number of Central Banks buying gold to be behind the move with around 100,000oz of ETF buying
- China and other nations are thought to be selling US dollars and related treasuries on the potential for further Fed rate cuts and buying gold.
- Normally central banks look to hold 20-22% of total foreign exchange reserves in gold but this may rise as they drop the US dollar for other assets.
- The more trade the BRICS can internationalise their currencies, the more yuan they can print and the more gold they will want to hold.
- China is in effect wrestling control over the global financial system away from the US government despite strict currency controls.
- China says it has raised its gold reserves by 40,000oz last month to 74.06moz (2,377t) worth $299bn. Some believe China may have bought more than so far declared.
- India’s RBI is reported to have bought 118,373 oz from January to August vs 1.4moz in the same period last year.
- Central Banks are also seen repatriating their physical gold bars.as they choose to hold gold at home.
- The PRC will not have forgotten how the Nationalist government started moving gold from China’s central bank to Taiwan in 1948/49 as the Communist opposition took over.
- Japan had looted 6,600t from Nanking in 1937 and the Nationalists took around 150t.
- By comparison, Gold ETFs of 97.4moz are worth $394bn. ETFs are generally held by institutions and private investors and may be used as short-term instruments by central banks.
- The Bank of England holds 310t of gold following sales of ~400t ($50bn) between 1999-2002.
- The Yen / Japan Carry Trade may be back on as the new prime minister looks to cut rates again and raise expenditure.
- Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold are not hedged and are fully exposed on the upside.
- We recommend virtually all gold equities in the current environment as even if gold retraces $300-400/oz the gold miners should still see extraordinary elevated profits.
- The gold market appears to be experiencing a ‘once-in-a-generation move’
Copper US$10,752/t – momentum continues as market digests implications of demand growth vs supply constraints
- Aurubis copper cathode premium declared at $315/t from $228/t for this year.
- The rise in premiums indicates rising potential for physical shortages following the shutdown of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia
- Aurubis is bullish on the outlook for copper and its impact on their business forecasting EBT of €300-€370m.
- Tight supply of copper concentrates and recycling materials are a concern and are driving their move into a more multi-metal portfolio
- Aurubis forecast persistent strong demand for its copper products, driven by the energy transition and electric vehicle manufacturing.
- They also see ongoing strong sales of sulphuric acid.
- The move by MIIT ‘China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’ to slow domestic non-ferrous metal supply to 1.5% from 5% should serve to tighten the market further.
Commodity Corner (from 1:14:20 Into the video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WStFQDi8N_U
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.20% | at | 46,603 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.45% | at | 47,735 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.75% | at | 26,756 | |
| Shanghai Composite | CLOSED | |||
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -1.4 | at | 4.11 |
Economics
Germany – Industrial production dips the most since early 2022 on the back of a 18.5%mom drop in auto production.
- Earlier this week BMW lowered is annual outlook on weak sales in China and tariff related costs.
- Industrial Production (%mom, Aug/Jul/Est): -4.3/1.3/-1.0
- Industrial Production (%yoy, Aug/Jul/Est): -3.9/1.5/-0.9
Japan – The yen continued its drop heading towards the 153 mark extending losses to 3.5% since Sanae Takaichi was elected to head the Liberal Democratic Party.
- Longer term 10y yields remained at the highest since late 2000s on inflation and fiscal discipline concerns.
France – Opposition parties demand their choice of new PM, snap elections and even Macron resignation as the nation drags on budget discussions.
Russia – Kremlin warns the US that a provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would be treated as a significant level of escalation.
- Earlier, President Trump said that he “sort of made a decision” to provide Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv.
- “Speaking of arms shipments, they usually precede statements, at least, that was the case under the Biden administration, as we are well aware. We’ll see what happens this time,” Kremlin spokesman said.
New Zealand – The central bank unexpectedly cut rates more than expected while flagging potential further cuts.
- The rate was reduced by 50bp to 2.5-3.0% versus an expectation for a 25bp move.
- The currency fell and investors are now expecting another 25bp cut in the final meeting for the year in November.
Currencies
US$1.1625/eur vs 1.1675/eur previous. Yen 152.43/$ vs 150.63/$. SAr 17.190/$ vs 17.231/$. $1.341/gbp vs $1.344/gbp. 0.657/aud vs 0.659/aud. CNY 7.121/$ vs 7.121/$.
Dollar Index 98.89 vs 98.39 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,036/oz vs US$3,945/oz previous
Gold ETFs 97.4moz vs 97.3moz previous
Platinum US$1,650/oz vs US$1,612/oz previous
Palladium US$1,388/oz vs US$1,320/oz previous
Silver US$48.8/oz vs US$48.1/oz previous
Rhodium US$7,075/oz vs US$7,075/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$10,752/t vs US$10,693/t previous
Aluminium US$2,749/t vs US$2,718/t previous
Nickel US$15,370/t vs US$15,455/t previous
Zinc US$3,028/t vs US$3,000/t previous
Lead US$2,005/t vs US$2,006/t previous
Tin US$36,475/t vs US$36,545/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$66.1/bbl vs US$65.4/bbl previous
- Crude prices edged higher even as the EIA estimated record US July oil production of 13.6mb/d and the API estimated a w/w build of 2.8mb to crude (+2.2mb exp), offset by draws of 1.3mb to gasoline and 1.8mb to distillate stocks.
- The EIA’s monthly energy outlook has increased forecast global oil supply growth to 2.6mb/d this year and 1.3mb/d next year, with US crude oil production now expected to average 13.5mb/d in both 2025 and 2026 (+0.2mb/d m/m).
- Brookfield announced the final institutional close for its flagship energy transition strategy, Brookfield Global Transition Fund II, with $20bn raised in fund commitments and strategic capital (up from $15bn raised for Fund I). The fund has already invested $5bn, which includes a public-to-private takeover of Neoen and the Evren JV in India.
Natural Gas €32.9/MWh vs €33.4/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $79.7/lb vs $80.5/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.3/t vs US$103.9/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$449.1/t vs US$449.1/t
HCC FOB Australia US$190.5/t vs US$190.8/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.5/t vs US$107.5/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$38,960/t vs US$36,470/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,917/t vs US$78,917/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,012/t vs US$10,012/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$593/mtu vs US$593/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
EV & battery news
Tesla halts sales slump with record 497,099 vehicle sales in Q3 as US tax credit ends
- Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3 2025, up 7.4% yoy.
- Tesla had been watching global sales slump in 2025, but the surge in September was driven by rush to buy before $7,500 US EV tax credit expired on 30th September.
- Demand is expected to dip in Q4 now the credits have expired.
- European demand remains weak, down 22.5% yoy in August, as hybrids and Chinese rivals make significant gains.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.2% | 1.0% | Freeport-McMoRan | 0.9% | 3.7% |
| Rio Tinto | 0.9% | 2.2% | Vale | -2.2% | 1.7% |
| Glencore | 0.0% | 4.9% | Newmont Mining | -1.8% | 3.1% |
| Anglo American | 2.0% | 3.4% | Fortescue | -0.3% | 1.4% |
| Antofagasta | 1.5% | 0.8% | Teck Resources | -1.4% | -2.9% |
Company news
Alphamin Resources (AFM CN) C$1.1, Mkt Cap C$1.5bn – FY25 guidance upgraded with step out drilling returning 10m at 41.5% Sn
- 3Q25 production 5.2kt (+26%qoq).
- Plant processed 222kt at 3.1% Sn at 76% recoveries.
- 5.1kt sold at a US$33,877/t average realised price implying ~$174m in revenues.
- AISC averaged $15,900/t, down 3%qoq, as operations normalised post an operational stoppage in 2Q25.
- EBITDA estimated at $96m
- 2025 guidance raised to 18.0-18.5kt, up from 17.5kt before.
- $57m in cash (Jun25: $110m) after paying $89m in interim dividends and withholding taxes.
- Step out drilling results released included:
- At Mpama South ~50m down dip extensions intersected including:
- BGH192: 24.13 metres @ 2.43% Sn from 532.92 metres, including 5.08 metres @ 4.31% Sn from 539.92 metres
- BGH194: 13.98 metres @ 1.62 % Sn from 489.26 metres, including 3.04 metres @ 4.26% Sn from 494.06 metres
- At Mpama North high grade mineralisation intersected 30m and 70m down plunge
- MNUD008A: 29.34 metres @ 6.21% Sn, including 9.3 metres @ 13.63% Sn both from 247.7 metres
- MNUD009: 33.28 metres @ 16.83% Sn, including 10.1 metres @ 41.47% Sn, both from 236.3 metres
Anglo American (AAL LN) 2,848p, Mkt Cap £33bn – Support for Teck’s plans at Quebrada Blanca
- Anglo American has issued a statement this morning in response to a statement yesterday from its merger partner, Teck Resources, on revised 2025 production guidance and updated tailings handling measures for the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile.
- Anglo American confirms that it “conducted significant due diligence on Teck ahead of the merger agreement announced on 9 September 2025, which included site visits and extensive engagement on technical, legal, financial and other matters”.
- Today’s statement is explicit in saying that “While the specific outcome of the operational review that Teck has announced today was not known at the time, the outcome presented by Teck is broadly consistent with Anglo American’s independent due diligence and analysis. On this basis, the overall strategic rationale for the merger and all synergy values and their timing, as outlined in the 9 September merger announcement, remain unchanged”.
- Anglo American remains “fully supportive of Teck’s more measured approach to the ramp up of Teck’s Quebrada Blanca (“QB”) operation over the next few years, with Anglo American’s technical and project delivery teams having successfully resolved similar issues at Quellaveco during its ramp-up phase”.
- The statement describes the “merger of Anglo American and Teck … [which creates a 1.3mtpa copper producer as] … an outstanding value creation opportunity, including by unlocking the expected very material earnings and cost synergies previously set out – being US$1.4 billion in annual average EBITDA uplift through the combination of Collahuasi and QB and US$800 million in pre-tax recurring annual synergies”.
Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 1.88p, Mkt Cap £39m – Tavsan heap-leach expected to produce gold this quarter
- Ariana Resources confirms that heap-leach operations are underway at its 23.5% owned Tavsan gold project in western Turkey, operated by Turkish mine operator, Zenit Madencilik.
- Initial gold production “is expected to start in the current quarter, once sufficient ore is loaded and leaching has commenced”.
- A total ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ mineral resource of 311koz of gold and 1.1moz of silver at Tavsan is expected to support “an eight-year mine life … with potential for further enhancement through continued resource growth”.
- Commenting that Ariana Resources is looking forward to “first gold production from the Tavşan heap-leach and a renewed dividend flow from Zenit during 2026 … [Managing Director, Kerim Sener, said that the] … start of heap-leaching operations at Tavşan is an important milestone for the Company, paving the way for sustained gold production from our interests in Türkiye, augmenting the existing production via the Kiziltepe CIL processing plant”.
Conclusion: The 23.5%-owned Tavsan heap-leach mine in Turkey is now on stream and expected to produce its initial gold this quarter.
Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) 7.95p, Mkt cap £100m – Timetable to redomicile to the UK
Flash Note: CLICK LINK
- Cornish Metals, which recently issued an an updated study describing plans for the resumption of tin production at the historic South Crofty mine in Cornwall, has outlined the timetable for its planned change of domicile from Canada to the UK.
- Documents “will be submitted to the Ontario Superior Court of Justice for an interim hearing on the proposed court-approved plan of arrangement … scheduled for 14 October 2025”.
- “Subject to the outcome of the Interim Hearing, further information will be circulated to shareholders ahead of the convening of a special meeting to approve the Arrangement which is anticipated to be held in the second half of November 2025”.
- CEO, Don Turvey, explained that a UK domicile “simplifies the Company’s structure and better aligns with our strategic and operational focus in the UK to restart tin production at our South Crofty mine in Cornwall”.
- He said that the planned move would bring the benefits of “reduced regulatory, legal and other costs associated with the dual-listing, improved liquidity of the single quotation on AIM and reduced transaction and overall complexity, which is paramount as we advance the project finance process”.
- The updated study, released on 30th September refines the 2024 PEA with updated economics using current operating and cost estimates and commodity price assumptions reflecting recent robust metal price performance.
- Based on current mineral resources, an initial 14-year mine life at South Crofty produces ~49kt of tin supplying approximately 1.6% of global production between years 2-6 and with meaningful opportunities to extend and/or expand life production rates and mine-life.
- Tin production is derived from the mining of 500ktpa of ore, which after an ore pre-concentration stage provides feed of 250ktpa of ore at a grade of 1.89% tin to the processing plant.
- Operating costs of US$14,500/t LOM, secure a position in the lowest cost quartile of global tin production with costs for years 2-6 estimated to be even lower at an average US$13,419/t.
- Based on current mineral resources, an initial 14-year mine life at South Crofty produces ~49kt of tin supplying approximately 1.6% of global production between years 2-6 and with meaningful opportunities to extend and/or expand life production rates and mine-life.
- Tin production is derived from the mining of 500ktpa of ore, which after an ore pre-concentration stage provides feed of 250ktpa of ore at a grade of 1.89% tin to the processing plant.
Conclusion: Subject to the approval of the Ontario Superior Court of Justice Cornish Metals expects to seek shareholder approval for a redomicile to the UK in the second half of November.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Cornish Metals
East Star Resources (EST LN) 1.95p, Mkt Cap £8.5m – Progress report on exploration at the Snowy gold project, Kazakhstan
- East Star Resources confirms that recent exploration at its Snowy project in Kazakhstan, including mapping and sampling of vein systems, is consistent with low-sulphidation epithermal mineralisation.
- Today’s announcement describes features observed over a wide area during the exploration which support the low-sulphidation epithermal model including:
-
- “Quartz veins with gold and low base metal content at surface”; and
- “Sericite alteration”;
- “tuffaceous and volcaniclastic” host rocks as well as
- The gold bearing veins are reported to cut the moderately dipping volcaniclastic host rocks “at a steep angle, which presents an attractive conceptual target at depth where there is the potential to find the ‘boiling zone’ where the ascending fluids meet with a more permeable – usually volcaniclastic – host rock, representing an attractive host rock for gold”.
- The company plans to follow these initial findings with further mapping and sampling “to establish the true scale of the mineralisation at surface and better delineate the target”
- Following the additional mapping and sampling, “an IP survey would be a likely next step to seek to illuminate the potential for mineralisation at depth below the surface anomaly in preparation for drilling”.
- CEO, Alex Walker, said that the company is “excited to continue testing this new model, which has the potential to host a large gold system”.
Conclusion: Initial exploration of the Snowy project will be followed by further more detailed mapping and sampling to establish the scale of potential low-sulphidation epithermal gold mineralisation.
Hamak Strategy (HAMA LN) 2.4p, Mkt Cap £12m – Drilling results from the Nimba licence, Liberia
- Hamak Strategy reports results from drilling at its 65% owned Nimba licence in Liberia which it is exploring in joint-venture with ASX listed First Au Limited.
- The results from hole FADD25-001 highlighted in today’s announcement include:
-
- “a wide mineralised zone of 29m at 0.97g/t Au from 49m to 78m” including a 23m wide zone at an average grade of 1.15g/t between 49-72m depth”; and
- A deeper, 8m wide zone at an average grade of 2.55g/t gold from 130m depth.
- The announcement clarifies that the “intersections confirm the continuity of mineralisation at depth from the first Hamak drilling that intersected 20m at 7g/t Au closer to surface”.
- Gold mineralisation is reported to remain open at depth.
- Results from holes FADD-002 and 003 “are expected in the near future”.
- “Hamak’s joint venture partner, FAU (35% project owner), is fully funding exploration work at Nimba to include an initial 3,000m drilling programme at the Ziatoyah gold discovery. Drilling is currently ongoing with five holes for 948.90 metres having been completed to date”.
- Drill core photographs included in today’s announcement show visible gold at depths of 51m, 60.95m and 132m depth in hole FADD25-001.
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) C$15, Mkt Cap C$20.5bn – Copper guidance reiterated as dewatering open up high grade mining areas
- Kamoa-Kakula produced 71kt copper (-36%qoq) in 3Q25.
- YTD production 316kt.
- 2025 guidance reiterated 370-420kt with higher grades expected to be mined at Kakula western from next month.
- Stage 2 dewatering is 20% complete and is expected to be completed by the end of November.
- 2026 and 2027 guidance to be released once inspection of newly dewatered areas of the Kakula Mine is completed.
- New LOM plan expected to be released 1Q26.
- Smelter commissioning due early November.
- Kipushi zinc production climbed to a record 57.2kt in 3Q25.
- YTD production 137kt.
- 2025 guidance reiterated at 180-240kt zinc.
- Platreef Mine Phase 1 commissioning expected in the coming weeks.
- Phase 2 expansion underway with first production targeted 4Q27.
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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