SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 6th August 2025

Gold edges lower after rally as US dollar sell-off pauses and yields climb

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Glencore* (GLEN LN) – Shares hit on lower coal prices and weak copper production

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – Tulu Kapi early works and project funding update

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Operations update

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) – Zambia copper update

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) – Monazite concentrate offtake and $20m loan with Iluka

Lundin Gold (LUG CN) – Exploration

West African Resources (WAF AU) – Guidance updated as on track for 500kozpa production

Gold ($3,365/oz) edges lower after rally as US dollar sell-off pauses and yields climb

• Gold prices are giving back some of Friday’s gains, which saw the metal break its steady move lower.
• Gold has been tightly rangebound c$3.330/oz for the past few months.
• Weak US labour data changed this, pushing gold prices to $3,400/oz.
• US Treasury yields slumped to 4.2% on the 10 year last week but have since edged higher again.
• Gold equities have been catching a bid, with the VanEck Miners ETF up 6% over the past week, with many producers hitting 15-year highs.

Copper mines and earthquakes

• Expect more earthquakes at copper mines around the world as faster mining rates release geotechnical tension.
• Kamoa and now El Teniente, – who is next?
• But there is more to it than just being deep, eg high-wall height, rock competency, safety, water, snow, altitude, etc…
  • Chuquicamata 850m deep at 2,850m altitude. Last major slope failure 1967
  • Escondida 645m deep, 3,100m altitude
  • Escondida Norte 525m deep
  • Grasberg (Indonesia) 550m deep, altitude 4,270m
  • Cerro Verde (Peru) altitude 2,700m
  • Collahuasi (Chile) 700m deep, 4,000-4,800m altitude
  • El Teniente (Chile) 1,500-1,900m altitude
  • Los Pelambres, 3,100m altitude. Avalanche risk
  • Los Bronces, 100m deep, 3,400-4,100m altitude
• Bingham Canyon in the US is the deepest open cast copper mine in the world, closely followed by Chuquicamata in Chile.
  • Bingham Canyon suffered two massive landslides in 2013 involving 145mt of waste rock.
  • There were no casualties as the rock mechanics predicted the event but moving the waste cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
• The impact of a geotechnical event could be catastrophic on any of these mines.
• While these events are seen as rare, it is likely they will become more common as the world’s copper mines deepen and as companies work to accelerate their production.
• Many of these mines are in geological, mountain building regions, which are prone to earthquakes and where landslips can cut power, water and concentrate pipelines.
• While most events generally disrupt production for a few days some may suspend copper production for weeks or months while the operators clear the rubble and repair any damage.
• Landslips and seismic events more often cut water and concentrate pipelines and sometimes interrupt power supplies.

Conclusion: Larger mines are likely to see greater seismic disruption going forward though managing the potential for landslides, avalanches, flooding and seismic events are just a few of hazards managed by mining engineers.

Mines will likely suffer increasing seismic events as they go deeper and extract more weight. Fortunately, these events are normally well forecast and managed by the technical teams at the major mining companies.

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

Economics

US – President Trump stepped up pressure on India warning he will raise import tariffs from current 25% “substantially over the next 24 hours”.

• The White House cited high trade barriers and its purchases of Russian oil as reasons behind the announcement.

Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter is meeting Secretary of State Marco Rubio after the nation was hit with a 39% tariff, one of the highest on the list.

• Keller-Sutter is reported to have travelled to the US without a formal visit from the White House and is currently unclear if she will see President Trump.

Equities pulled back yesterday after the US Services ISM index showed weakening growth and stronger inflationary pressures.

• The ISM Services index declined to 50.1 in July from 50.8 while employment index contracted and the measure of prices hit the highest since October 2022.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed 0.5% and 0.6% off on Tuesday, although futures are trading slightly stronger this morning (+0.4% and 0.2%).

Germany – Factory orders underperform falling for a second month in June reflecting high trade and geopolitical uncertinaty.

• “Given the persistent high level of trade and geopolitical uncertainty, it comes as little surprise that order intake remains subject to strong volatility,” the Economy Ministry said in a statement.
• “Industry is likely to face subdued foreign demand in the future due to higher tariffs on exports to the US that look to be permanent.”
• Factory Orders (%mom, Jun/May/Est): -1.0/-0.8(revised from -1.4)/1.1
• Factory Orders (%yoy, Jun/May/Est): 0.8/6.1(revised from 5.3)/2.1

Currencies

US$1.1575/eur vs 1.1555/eur previous. Yen 147.61/$ vs 147.29/$. SAr 17.872/$ vs 17.966/$. $1.329/gbp vs $1.328/gbp. 0.649/aud vs  0.646/aud. CNY 7.190/$ vs 7.186/$.

Dollar Index 98.78 vs 98.82 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,372/oz vs US$3,375/oz previous

Gold ETFs 91.8moz vs 91.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,327/oz vs US$1,332/oz previous

Palladium US$1,172/oz vs US$1,204/oz previous

Silver US$37.8/oz vs US$37.5/oz previous

Rhodium US$6,875/oz vsUS$6,900/oz previous        

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,670/t vs US$9,733/t previous

Aluminium US$2,575/t vs US$2,576/t previous

Nickel US$15,100/t vs US$15,050/t previous

Zinc US$2,769/t vs US$2,772/t previous

Lead US$1,998/t vs US$1,972/t previous

Tin US$33,365/t vs US$33,340/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$68.3/bbl vs US$68.3/bbl previous

Natural Gas €34.1/MWh vs €34.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.6/lb vs $71.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$110.6/t vs US$110.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$474.7/t vs US$473.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$189.5/t vs US$187.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$116.8/t vs US$117.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$74,134/t vs US$74,177/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,486/t vs US$9,561/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$770/t vs US$775/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$463/mtu vs US$453/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.9/lb vs US$4.9/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.5/kg vs US$23.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$275/t vs US$275/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,092/t vs US$1,092/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Baidu & Lyft to deploy robotaxis in Europe

• Baidu has partnered with US ride-hailing firm Lyft to launch Apollo Go robotaxis on the Lyft platform in major European markets.
• Initial service is planned for 2026 in Germany and the UK, with the fleet expected to scale to thousands of vehicles across Europe once regulators approve the plan.
• Lyft will field Baidu’s sixth-generation autonomous vehicles, combining its customer-service and fleet-management strengths with Baidu’s self-driving technology.
• Apollo Go has already logged more than 11m rides and operates about 1,000 robotaxis in 15 Chinese cities, underlining Baidu’s operational experience.
• Lyft’s recent acquisition of FreeNow expands its reach to nine European countries and over 180 cities.
• The deal follows Baidu’s July agreement with Uber to deploy Apollo Go robotaxis in Asia and the Middle East later this year.

Company news

Glencore* (GLEN LN) 289p, Mkt Cap £34bn – Shares hit on lower coal prices and weak copper production

• Glencore reports half year results, with revenue flat at $117bn.
• Adj. EBITDA down 14% to $5.4bn on lower coal prices and lower copper production.
• EBITDA margins:
  • Copper: 36% vs 46% same period last year
  • Zinc: 19% vs 13% on higher gold prices
  • Steelmaking coal: 35% vs 49%
  • Energy coal: 18% vs 28%.
• Unit costs:
  • Copper: $2.25/lb up 32% on volumes, reduced cobalt credits in the DRC
  • Steelmaking Coal: $108/t
  • Energy coal: $65/t
• EVR EBITDA contribution at $786m, down $1.1bn on lower coal prices.
• Adj. EBIT down 37% to $1.8bn.
• Company reports a net loss for the period at $0.7bn.
• Funds from operations down 22% at $3.15bn.
• Net debt up 30% at $14.5bn, with net debt/EBITDA at 1.08x and set to fall to 1x via Viterra cash proceeds.
• Glencore has initiated a $1bn cost savings programme via optimising headcount, savings across energy, consumables, contractors and administrative functions.
• $1bn savings expected by end of 2026.
• CAPEX:
  • Copper: $1.1bn, down 12%
  • Zinc: $0.4bn, up 34%
  • Steelmaking Coal: $0.8bn
  • Energy coal: $0.6bn
• Marketing contribution of $1.4bn EBIT, down 8%yoy, whilst long-term marketing guidance range increased to $2.3-3.5bn for the full year.

Conclusion Glencore’s earnings capacity is predominantly driven by copper and steelmaking coal following the acquisition of Elk Valley from Teck. Met coal prices have been weak this half year, with Glencore’s realised price of $184.7/t down 33% on the period, reducing EBITDA margin to $59t. Copper earnings have been hit by weak performance on lower grades and mine sequencing, although management expects a recovery in 2H25. Marketing contributions are expected to pick up over the longer term amid increased volatility and performance growth. Glencore’s share price will likely remain driven by met coal and copper prices.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Glencore

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.55p, Mkt Cap £50m – Tulu Kapi early works and project funding update

• The Company released an operations update on development works and funding discussions at the Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia.
• Independent consultants signed off on security, community and site preparations early works that were in order for full project development.
• Updated finance plan and financial model completed for cost escalation and operations schedule are undergoing final review for inclusion in the final definitive documentation.
• Credit committee approvals for expanded US$240m bank loan facility secured with one bank completing board ratification and the other currently in the process of doing so.
• All parties are targeting financial close September 2025, a change from previously expected August.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.33p, Mkt Cap £69m – Operations update

(Hainan Mining holds a 51% stake in KMUK which holds the Bougouni Lithium Project in Mali with Kodal holding 49%. Mali will hold 35% of the jv company with KMUK)

(Kodal Minerals Plc now, effectively, hold 49% of 65% of the Bougouni project with Mali holding 35% through LMLB and 65% of LMLB held by the Kodal jv with Hainan Mining within KMUK)

• The Company released an operational update for the recently commissioned Bougouni Lithium Project in Mali.
• The DMS plant continued to operate well with staff training ongoing.
• Stockpiles of produced spodumene concentrate ready for export exceed 45kt.
• Export permit discussions are ongoing.
• Open pit mining has slowed down due to heavy rainfall typical of a wet season and excess water in the pit.
• Pumping is ongoing and access is expected to be restored soon.
• Mining refocused on the removal of free dig waste at pit boundaries.
• Mining was also impacted by delays in the delivery of explosives to the site which was highlighted to authorities and expected to be remedied soon.
• ROM stockpiles are available in the meantime to sustain necessary plant feed.
• The team is planning a maintenance shutdown of the DMS plant late August to complete a final check and complete improvements.
• The team also hosted a visit by the Mali Minister of Miners (Dr Amadou Keita) and the Governor of the Bougouni Region (General Ousmane Wele) who noted the need for the project to expedite exports.

Conclusion: The Company hosted a government delegation including the Minister of Mines highlighting the need for export permits to be issued with more than 45kt of SC concentrate currently available in stocks ready for shipment (we estimate ~40kt SC6.0 or ~US$30m worth of product FOB basis). The team will carry maintenance works at the plant end of August while awaiting for permits that should in turn improve operations once restarted and ease pressure on working capital.

*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) 2.85p, Mkt cap £93m – Zambia copper update

• Jubilee Metals Group has updated the market today on its strategy to develop copper production in Zambia.
• Management are looking to better integrate their Sable refinery which is close to the Munkoyo copper pits.
• Munkoyo has nine pits with management examining the potential to combine the pits into a larger open cast mine giving greater scale.
  • Further exploration in the are has the potential to expand the resources around Munkoyo and Project G.
  • Eight holes have been drilled in partnership with another mining company with results due after review by a competent person.
  • The results will guide decisions on combining pits 2 to 4 to sustain ore production of 6 500-8 500tpm at 2.5% Cu.
  • There is also potential for the enlarged pit to access the copper sulphide ore body below the near-surface copper oxides.
  • Discussions are in progress with the Project G partner on some newly secured exploration properties within the area.
• Rowan concentrator: Jubilee also manages the Roan concentrator which currently concentrates third-party feedstock with capacity of 384t of contained copper a month.
  • The concentrator is processing non-standard feedstock with copper sulphide concs sold into the market and copper oxide concs sent to Sable for refining.
  • Management are working on a new and dedicated copper leaching circuit to upgrade copper at Rowan and avoid trucking the oxide concs to Sable.
  • FYH2 2025 power in infrastructure issues resulted in extended care and maintenance  while power security was resolved and process upgrades completed to allow for the simultaneous processing of high-grade copper materials and tailings.
  • This cut copper unit production to 757t from 1,454 t in FYH12025.
• Stockpiles and tailings: Jubilee has >240mt of copper-bearing material in stockpiles and tailings with a potential deal for US$18m for the sale of the ‘lowest ranking non-core tailings assets’.
• Zambia production guidance for FY2026
  • Guidance is set at 2,300t for this half, H1 FY2026.
  • Guidance for FY2026 of 5 100 tonnes

​Other expansion projects:

• • Onsite Munkoyo processing unit – 1 440 tonnes per annum;
  • Project G processing unit – 1 320 tonnes per annum;
  • Refining at Roan  – 2 544 tonnes per annum; and
  • Two processing modules at the Large Waste Tailings dump – 5 500 tonnes per annum. ·     Further capital dependent projects which are currently underway and being targeted to commence within FY2026, offer the potential to increase annual copper production by approximately 10 000 tonnes as follows:

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) A$0.13, Mkt Cap A$148m – Monazite concentrate offtake and $20m loan with Iluka

• The Company agreed a binding strategic partnership with Iluka for development of the hard rock Kangankunde RE Project in Malawi.
• The agreement involves an offtake for monazite concentrate and a term sheet for the US$20m loan facility.
• Offtake terms:
  • 90kt of monazite concentrate containing 9.6kt NdPr over the term of the contract.
  • 6kt pa over ~15y.
  • Pricing is linked to realised REOs adjusted for payability, any price support received from the government to be included in the realised NdPr pricing mechanism
  • Provision for Dy and Tb above nominated thresholds are included.
  • ROFR granted for Iluka to extend the term for a further 15y (6kdmt pa) and for Phase 2 production expansion for up to additional 25ktpa (31ktpa total) subject to Iluka offering a loan for 50% of expansion capital.
  • Offtake is subject to Kangankunde reaching commercial production and Eneabba also in commercial production and being capable of processing the product.
• The material to be fed into the Eneabba RE refinery and would represent ~10% of the facility capacity.
• The Eneabba facility is under construction with commissioning targeted for 2027.
• Loan terms:
  • US$20m Construction Term Loan
  • 11% + SOFR
  • 5y from Financial Close or 31 December 2031
  • The material to be fed into the Eneabba RE refinery and would represent ~10% of the facility capacity.
  • Security over mining assets
  • Drawdown subject to Iluka completing DD on the project and Kangankunde fully funded.
• Kangankunde is a permitted FS stage project envisaged to produce ~15ktpa monazite concentrate at ~$3/kg TREO (FOB) over 45y LOM (Phase 1 only).
• $40m capex estimated with the process relying on just gravity/magnetic separation facility (only a small flotation circuit to be added to reduce impurities).
• Reserves 24mt at 2.9% TREO (~20% NdPr).
• Resources 261mt at 2.1% TREO (~20% NdPr share).
• The stock opened up >60% on the announcement but closed +33%.

Conclusion: The agreed deal highlights increased interest in securing RE feedstock for downstream processing as Western economies are aiming to diversify RE supply chains away from China.

Lundin Gold (LUG CN) C$70, Mkt Cap C$16.7bn – Exploration

• Lundin Gold, who operate the Fruta del Norte project, report drilling results from Trancaloma.
• Lundin are currently conducting a near-mine drilling programme, having completed 48,000m ytd.
• At Trancaloma, which lies to the southeast of Fruta del Norte, highlights include:
  • TRL-2025-290: 667m at 0.44% CuEq (0.32% Cu and 0.12g/t Au) from 368m
  • TRL-2025-272: 876.7m at 0.34% CuEq (0.27% Cu, 0.07 g/t Au) from surface
  • Drilling confirms lateral and vertical continuity of Trancaloma system and suggests it remains open at depth and along strike.
• Trancaloma mineralisation is characterised porphyry related hydrothermal alteration, with chalcopyrite and pyrite associated with quartz veins.
• Management is focusing on potential for expansion to the northwestern direction.
• Lundin also notes drilling to the north of Trancaloma has identified another porphyry system, Sandia.
• Sandia drilling returned:
  • SND-2025-298: 730.9m of 0.35% CuEq (0.28% Cu, 0.06 g/t Au from surface

Conclusion Lundin Gold, who built and operate the Fruta del Norte gold mine, have continued their widespread near mine exploration programme in Ecuador. This has identified a porphyry corridor running 5km long and adjacent to FDN. It will be interesting to see if Management can identify economic mineralisation with appropriate grades in the porphyry corridor. In the meantime, given the Company’s current valuation, we would not be surprised to see the family look to acquire additional assets using Lundin Gold shares. Newmont retains a 30% stake in the Company, which may complicate plans.

West African Resources (WAF AU) A$2.6, Mkt Cap A$3bn – Guidance updated as on track for 500kozpa production

• Burkina Faso gold producer West African reports reserves and resources.
• Company holds resources of 352mt at 1.1g/t Au for 12.2moz.
• Reserves reported at 181.6mt at 1.1g/t Au for 6.5moz.
• Sanbrado production expected to average 243kozpa through 2025-2034, peaking at 319koz in 2030.
• Kiaka production to average 248kozpa from 2026 over its 18-year LOM.
• 200,000m of exploration drilling planned for 2025-25:
  • 30,000m at M5 to extend resource at depth
  • 15,000m surface drilling beneath M5 open-pit to test cut-back potential
  • 13,500m at Toega to convert inferred mineral resource.

Conclusion: WAF have successfully built and commissioned two large operations in Burkina Faso and now expect to produce c.500kozpa through 2026 to 2034. The Company has a track record of successful discovery and holds 1,300km2 of greenstone belt permits in country. We expect WAF may look to diversify its country risk by seeking assets outside of Burkina Faso.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – George.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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