SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 4th October 2023

Metals pull back on collapsing global bond markets

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Alien Metals (UFO LN) – Award of licence for the Hancock Iron Ore Project

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY – Soyudlu residents meeting

Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ LN) – Mining contracts agreed for Nalunaq

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – BUY, 7.9p (from 12.8p) – Earnings and valuation update

Neometals Ltd (NMT LN) – Primobius shows encouraging lithium recovery results for recycling

Nordic Nickel (NNL AX) – Additional licences at Pulju Nickel Project, Finland

Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW LN) – LoI signed for potential offtake for gypsum residue from Phalaborwa operation in South Africa

IGTV: New lower lows in base metals keep coming – why? https://youtu.be/1KWgI2HTUGw?si=VlVfQtpW-mrI7slD

          Copper will still move up despite a gear shift down in carbon-zero targets  https://youtu.be/jbywf2hmEU8?si=yxJcwGiE1_V121Ok

VOX: 29/09/23:  https://audioboom.com/posts/8375969-john-meyer-on-china-s-property-implosion-plus-atlantic-lithium-bushveld-sovereign-metals

          22/09/23:  https://audioboom.com/posts/8372001-john-meyer-discusses-heat-pumps-the-energy-transition-plus-bluejay-jay-kodal-kod-savannah-sav

*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts. We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.

Gold prices slide amid global bond rout and dollar strength

  • Gold prices fell for the eighth day in a row, falling to $1,820/oz.
  • The US dollar and US Treasury yields both rose on the back of JOLTs data, which showed an unexpected beat in US job openings.
  • The US 10-year made new 16-year highs at 4.85%, with real yields historically weighing on appetite for gold.
  • Yields continue to push flows into the US dollar, with the index reaching November 2022 highs before paring some gains this morning.
  • The Euro and Pound are both sitting at 10 month and seven month lows respectively.
  • Fed President Bostic stated that she doesn’t ‘think the degree of response to date has been out of bounds,’ showing that the Fed is confident its monetary policy is working.
  • The hawkish shift in sentiment was triggered during the FOMC meeting in September, when a number of officials surprised the bond market by insinuating another hike next month.
  • The US labour market continues to defy pessimists, with unemployment expected to decrease.
  • Platinum hit a yearly low and palladium and silver are both struggling against a higher dollar.

Copper sinks below $8,000/t as buoyant supply hits a weak demand market

  • Copper prices hit $7,920/t this morning before settling around $7,985/t.
  • The move tracked a widespread sell-off of metals on the back of a stronger dollar and concerns over elevated rates weighing on industrial activity.
  • LME cash spreads are currently trading at a discount of $70/t, near 30-year levels as elevated inventories push the metal into contango.
  • Contango suggests a glut of supply and is traditionally bearish for prices.
  • Higher rates limit traders’ ability to buy product and trigger offloading of supply to strengthen balance sheets.
  • Manufacturing activity is weakening in Asia and the US and concentrate supplies from Peru, Chile and the DRC are ample.
  • Chinese end-user demand remains weak on slim margins as the property contraction continues.

DRC and Zambia agree $850m route to accelerate copper exports eastwards

  • Felix Tshisekedi and Zambia’s HH have agreed to begin construction of an export route to Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam.
  • The partnership agreed to build a 345m bridge over the Luapala river with construction expected to take three years.
  • It is intended to ease congestion for copper and cobalt trucking congestion, currently limited by poor roads and delayed border crossings.
  • Having driven the T2 and T3 roads through the Copperbelt from the DRC to Lusaka any initiative to take heavy traffic off these roads will be a huge life saver.
  • The move to direct freight to Dar es Salaam may prevent some thefts in Zimbabwe and South Africa but will subject shippers to the nightmare of dealing with corruption and gangs involved in the port of Dar es Salaam. If this is not properly addressed then the new route could become just another African white elephant.

Nickel surplus to widen as Indonesia continues to ramp up low-grade output

  • The nickel price is weakening as a glut of low-quality Indonesian supply is feeding into the market.
  • The price stands at $18,845/t, a two-year low, with the LME market seeing cash discounts of $280/t, pushing prices down c.40% this year.
  • LME inventories jumped 14% in September alone.
  • The INSG expects a 240kt surplus in 2024 vs 223kt this year.
  • This surplus is being fed by a ramp up in production of Class II product from Indonesia.
  • Indonesia is expected to ramp up capacity to 1.2mt by 2025. (CICC)
  • Projects being developed by PT Lygend, PT QMB, Huayou and Huafei are supporting this.
  • However, we expect automakers and OEMs may begin to shun lower-quality, higher carbon-intensive Indonesian nickel products in favour of cleaner, greener nickel sulphide products.

Tin – Graphene, tin combo shows promise for solar panels, artificial muscles and more

  • Researchers from New Jersey Institute of Technology developed a unique dataset combining 2D graphene and 3D tin for various applications.
  • They used the Expanse supercomputer to study the interface between graphene and tin systems using a machine learning method based on quantum mechanical modelling.
  • The study produced a robust material applicable in various devices like biosensors, solar panels, batteries, electronics, and artificial muscles.
  • Graphene interface is valuable in sodium-ion batteries, easing mechanical stresses upon sodium intercalation in tin anodes.
  • The team aims to create a large database of interface systems to be shared with the materials science research community, allowing faster prediction of interfacial properties for nanoscale interfaces.
Dow Jones Industrials -1.29% at 33,002
Nikkei 225 -2.28% at 30,527
HK Hang Seng -1.13% at 17,136
Shanghai Composite +0.10% at 3,110

Economics

US – A positive set of labour numbers released yesterday ahead of September NFPs due this Friday.

  • Job openings, a proxy for labour demand, came in at 9,610k in August, up from 8,920k in the previous month and 8,815k forecast.
  • NFPs will be released later this week with estimates for a 170k reading extending a declining trend in a four week average that hit 190k, the lowest since the onset of Covid pandemic in early 2020, in August.
  • Labour earnings growth is expected to pick up a little on a monthly basis with estimates for 0.3%mom/3.7%yoy compared to 0.2%mom/3.8%yoy.
  • Bond yields are trading at the highest level since Subprime Crisis in late 2000s as market assesses monetary policy outlook.

Japan – The yen sharply climbed overnight with many speculating the government may have stepped in to support the currency after it briefly hit the 150 level.

  • Japanese authorities refrained from discussing whether the Finance Ministry intervened into the FX market, Reuters reports.

Eurozone

  • Composite PMI: 47.2 September v 47.1 estimated previously.

UK – The currency climbs on the news of an upwards revision to September PMIs.

  • Composite PMI: 48.5 September v 46.8 estimated previously.

Currencies

US$1.0469/eur vs 1.0486/eur previous. Yen 148.99/$ vs 149.86/$. SAr 19.371/$ vs 19.256/$. $1.207/gbp vs $1.208/gbp. 0.631/aud vs 0.632/aud. CNY 7.298/$ vs 7.302/$.

Dollar Index 107.21 vs 107.02 previous.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,820/oz vs US$1,838/oz previous

Gold ETFs 87.7moz vs 88moz previous

Platinum US$866/oz vs US$879/oz previous

Palladium US$1,165/oz vs US$1,199/oz previous

Silver US$21.05/oz vs US$21/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,100/oz vs US$4,100/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$ 7,955/t vs US$7,974/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,275/t vs US$2,311/t previous

Nickel US$ 18,765/t vs US$18,711/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,497/t vs US$2,554/t previous

Lead US$ 2,110/t vs US$2,121/t previous

Tin US$ 24,095/t vs US$23,944/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$90.5/bbl vs US$90.0/bbl previous

  • Crude oil prices have stabilised around the $90/bbl as the API reported a 4.2mb draw (vs 0.1mb/d expected) on US crude stocks last week.
  • US Henry Hub natural gas prices rose on forecasts for a cold air mass to sweep down into the country next week and boost heating demand.
  • Following the issue of an environmental licence, Petrobras plans to spend $300m to drill two exploration wells in Block BM-POT-17 in Brazil’s offshore Potiguar basin, which will evaluate the 2013 Pitu discovery.
  • Eni plans to redeploy the FPSO Voyageur Spirit, formerly deployed on the UK Huntington field, and the shuttle tanker Nordic Brasilia for the Phase 2 development project on the Baleine field located offshore Ivory Coast.
  • Brookfield is reportedly paying nearly $1bn to acquire the renewable energy division of Banks Group, which operates 300MW of onshore wind farms in the UK and has a development pipeline of solar and wind projects.

Natural Gas €38.190/MWh vs €37.890/MWh previous

Uranium UXC US$70/lb vs US$70/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$115.8/t vs US$120.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$540.3/t vs US$540.3/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$120.3/t vs US$130.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$150.0/t vs US$156.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$321.0/t vs US$321.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,420/t vs US$33,071/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,252/t vs US$71,252/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,033/t vs US$21,033/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,290/t vs US$2,290/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,016/t vs US$1,026/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/mtu vs US$305/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$645/t vs US$645/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.6/lb vs US$6.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 29.25/kg vs US$29.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$316/t vs US$316/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$83.6/t vs US$85.6/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$345.0/t vs US$345.0/t

Battery News

Italy weighs up auto incentive scheme to cut Chinese price advantages

  • Italy could follow France by introducing new incentives for EU made EVs. (Reuters)
  • Car buyers in France could see up to €7000 in incentives when buying EU made EVs.
  • Chinese made EVs would not be eligible for the scheme enabling EU made vehicles to be more competitive on price.
  • Rome is aiming to agree a broad long term plan for its automotive industry with all relevant groups, including Stellantis, Italy’s sole major automaker.
  • The government pushing for it to bring its annual production in the country back to one million vehicles.

China Set Massive Plug-In Car Sales Record In August 2023, could see higher sales figures for September

  • In August, China set a new record for EV sales, selling 750,735 plug-in electric cars over the month, up 36% yoy.
  • The surge accounts for approximately 39% of all new car sales in China, indicating a growing shift towards EVs.
  • Early figures indicate that figures for September may even eclipse sales numbers from August.
  • Plug-in EVs now represent two out of every five new cars sold in China, with an overall market share of 39%.
  • The top-selling models in August were predominantly Chinese, with BYD models leading the pack. The BYD Song Plus, Tesla Model Y, and BYD Qin Plus were among the best-sellers.
  • BYD is the most popular brand in China, holding a 35.2% share in the plug-in segment, followed by Tesla (8.4%) and GAC Aion (6.6%).
  • BYD sales reached almost 290,000 for September taking BYD sales to 2.08m for the year.
  • The electric car market in China has been consistently growing, with the country responsible for six out of every ten new rechargeable cars sold globally.

EV uptake predicted to be more than 80% target by 2030

  • UK government’s zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate stipulates automakers must ensure 22% pure EV sales in 2024, rising to 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
  • Despite the relaxing of the mandate by Rishi Sunak, Jato’s head of Sales Link, Paul Hilton, anticipates EV adoption will exceed 80% by 2030, citing long-term planning by manufacturers.
  • Nissan confirms commitment to releasing only EVs in Europe despite potential delays, emphasising prior investments in UK manufacturing.
  • Emerging affordable Chinese EV brands in Europe put pressure on traditional manufacturers, challenging their competitiveness.
  • Concerns persist about the readiness of infrastructure to support the growing electric vehicle market in the UK.

Oil refiner Reliance unveils battery swap technology for EVs

  • Indian oil refining giant Reliance Industries showcased its swappable and multipurpose battery storage technology for EVs
  • At a renewable energy exhibition today, Reliance displayed removable and swappable batteries for EVs that can also be used to power household appliances through an inverter.
  • The idea is that a person can use one battery for mobility as well as for powering appliances at home, according to company executives who were not authorised to speak to media.
  • The batteries can be swapped at Reliance’s battery swap stations or re-charged by households using rooftop solar panels, which also it plans to sell.

Hydrogen Ecosystem Proof-Of-Concept Demonstration at Smarter Mobility Africa Conference

  • Toyota, Sasol, and Air Products demonstrated South Africa’s first on-road hydrogen mobility ecosystem.
  • The proof-of-concept utilized a second-gen Toyota Mirai fuel cell electric vehicle fueled with hydrogen produced by Sasol and dispensed using technology provided by Air Products.
  • Sasol emphasized the potential of hydrogen as a game-changer in sustainable transportation, highlighting their green hydrogen production with solar and wind energy sources.
  • Toyota has been actively involved in hydrogen vehicle research for over 30 years, with the Mirai serving as a flagship model in their hydrogen FCEV program.
  • Air Products, a global leader in hydrogen production, has extensive experience in safe hydrogen fueling operations for various vehicles and applications.
  • The partnership aims to establish a sustainable hydrogen ecosystem in South Africa, focusing on high commercial traffic areas initially and expanding to major long-haul routes in the future.
  • Commercialization needs more partners, investors, government support, and upfront commitments from businesses and fleets to purchase FCEVs to make the infrastructure viable.

Company News

Alien Metals (UFO LN) – 0.19p, Mkt cap £11.9m – Award of licence for the Hancock Iron Ore Project

  • Following yesterday’s announcement that it had reached agreement with the Karlka Nyiyaparli Aboriginal Corporation RNTBC (“KNAC”) for its 90% owned Hancock Iron Ore project, near Newman in the Pilbara region of WA, Alien Metals reports that KNAC has now withdrawn its objections to the application for a Miscellaneous Licence by Iron Ore Company of Australia.
  • With the withdrawal of the objections the Western Australian Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety (“DMIRS”) has now granted the Miscellaneous Licence … [allowing the construction of] … the essential infrastructure … for site access from the Great Northern Highway to the proposed mine site”.
  • CEO, Troy Whittaker, said that the withdrawal of the objections and award of the licence by the WA Department of Mines “significantly de-risks the Hancock Project execution …[and] … grants us the critical land tenure that secures unconstrained access to the mine site”.

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 58p, Mkt Cap £68m – Soyudlu residents meeting

BUY

  • The Company held a meeting with Syudlu village residents in the presence of government officials in Azerbaijan.
  • Minister of Ecology and natural Resources delivered a presentation on results of the environmental study recently completed by Micon.
  • Reza Vaziri, CEO and a major shareholder, highlighted the Company’s commitment to promote local community engagement and allocate further budget for social responsibility projects in addition to existing regional and community programmes.

Conclusion: The team is implementing recommendations included in the Micon report and is stepping up its local community engagement reiterating its focus on benefiting all stakeholders in its portfolio of production and development assets.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining

Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ LN) 57.5p, Mkt Cap £152m – Mining contracts agreed for Nalunaq

(Formerly AEX Gold (AEXG LN))

  • Amaroq Minerals reports that it has signed a two-year mining services contract with the long-established mining services contractor, Thyssen Schachtbau.
  • The contract “covers the rehabilitation of the existing portals, ramps, ventilation, and electricity supply of the targeted mining area, followed by the initial development and stoping of the high-grade Mountain Block at the former Nalunaq gold mine in Greenland.
  • Amaroq Minerals is at an advanced stage of exploring the project which comprises the old mine and surrounding licences.
  • In addition, the company has contracted the Canadian based mine services, procurement and supply chain management company, Tamarack Mining Services, to provide supply chain support to Nalunaq.
  • The company says that delivery “of the first containers to the Nalunaq site took place on September 13, 2023”.
  • Today’s announcement confirms that “Rehabilitation activities at Nalunaq will start during the first week of October 2023.
  • Describing the contracts as “a critical step forward in the restart of the Nalunaq mine … [CEO, Eldur Olafsson, said that with] … these agreements now in place, we are ready to move to the next phase of the project’s development, with rehabilitation activities due to start this month”.

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) 1.6p, Mkt Cap £25m – Earnings and valuation update

BUY – 7.9p (from 12.8p)

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  • We revised our valuation and updated our earnings to account for the proposed SPR deal details as well as a set of latest interim results.
  • Adjustments are predominantly driven by a disposal of 50% interest in Vanchem for ~$21m (versus our estimate of $46m) and dilution from potential ~464m of new shares worth ~$17m with $4.5m related to Orion convertible refinancing and $12.5m from SPR (we assumed the structure of the deal is maintained and new equity is issued at 3p per share, down from 6p envisaged in May/23 accounting for lower spot prices).
  • To a lesser extent our valuation was affected by lower than expected FCF generation in H1/23 due to working capital changes and paid taxes as well as downward revision to our vanadium price forecasts for H2/23 ($32.5/kgV v $35.0/kgV previously). The latter is expected to weigh on earnings with EBITDA forecast to come in at -$4m (H1/23: $10m) while divestment of Vanchem and Vametco is expected to incur a significant, albeit non-cash impairment (~$70m est.).
  • Our estimates assume production comes in line with guidance at 3.8ktV and $26.7/kgV C1 cash cost in FY23 while Orion refinancing and SPR deals close H2/23.
  • Management remains focused on addressing near term challenges that should assist in rerating of the Company including ramping up operations to stable production run rates and completing refinancing. Adding to this, another important factor that is key for Company’s future, but is beyond the team’s control, is vanadium price that has been underperforming lately (see Chart below) but that we would expect to recover on the back of potential stimulus measures in China as well as ramping up growth in VRFB demand.
(Dec year end)     FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
USDZAR R 16.5 14.8 16.4 18.1 18.0
FeV price US$/kgV 23.5 32.2 41.4 35.0 40.0
Production V kt 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.4
Sales V kt 3.8 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.4
C1 cash cost US$/kgV 18.6 26.1 27.7 26.7 24.8
Revenues US$m 90 107 148 143 177
EBITDA US$m -15 -7 22 6 34
PAT US$m -31 -34 -35 -97 5
FCF US$m -28 -32 2 -16 22
EV/EBITDA x 10.5 25.7 4.5
PER x
Net debt/(cash) US$m   25 69 76 58 45
Source: SPA, Company

*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to Bushveld Minerals

Neometals Ltd (NMT LN) 20p Mkt cap £100m – Primobius shows encouraging lithium recovery results for recycling

  • Neometals provides an update on its lithium recovery tests at the Primobius hydrometallurgical pilot refinery plant.
  • The plant flowsheet improvements have resulted in lithium yields between 83-93%.
  • The refinery is looking to produce lithium fluoride at +95% purity for use in lithium electrolyte manufacturing.
  • Lithium fluoride is used to produce lithium hexafluorophosphate for electrolytes in lithium-ion battery manufacturing.
  • The current Primobius technology uses solvent-extraction for lithium sulphate extraction, however the hydromet technology is seen to reduce costs.
  • The Company is currently in discussions with a number of Chinese precursor and electrolyte manufacturers.
  • Neometals also reports it has allowed its cooperation agreement for the Estarreja Lithium Refinery to expire last week as it updates terms with Bondalti Chemicals and Mineral Resources Ltd.
  • The Group will continue to fund the pilot trial and evaluation studies but are currently updating terms of the agreement.

Nordic Nickel (NNL AX) A$0.175, Mkt Cap A$20m – Additional licences at Pulju Nickel Project, Finland

  • In an announcement to the ASX, Nordic Nickel reports that it has secured an additional 15km2 exploration licence at its Pulju exploration project located in the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt of northern Finland.
  • The new licence, known as the Holtinvaara licence, is located around 50km north of Kittilä and 5km NE of the company’s 5km2 Holtinvaara project area where an inferred mineral resource of 133mt at an average grade of 0.21% nickel and 0.01% cobalt has been identified and results from recent drilling are awaited.
  • Nordic Nickel says that the new licence “contains a continuation of the prospective Mertavaara Formation, which hosts the same mineralised ultramafic packages observed at Holtinvaara … [which are] … also coincident with a prominent magnetic feature/anomaly measuring approximately 2.5km a 1.9km”.
  • The magnetic anomaly, known as P5, “has similarities to the main magnetic anomaly that the Company has been drilling at Holtinvaara … [and the company says that it is] … encouraged by the scale of the P5 anomaly and its potential to host both substantial accumulations of disseminated nickel sulphides and discrete, high-grade, massive sulphide lenses”.
  • Noting that “most of the drilling completed throughout the region was terminated at relatively shallow depths, often while in mineralisation leaving open the potential to make significant discoveries at depth” Nordic Nickel takes the opportunity to provide a progress report on its drilling at Holtinvaara where it has completed 15,032m in 28 drill holes.
  • Saying that it expects to complete an updated mineral resources estimate (MRE) by the end of the year, Nordic Nickel reports that assay results are currently pending for 20 of the holes drilled and will be “progressively received and reported over the coming weeks”.
  • Previously reported results from earlier holes in the programme include:
  • Intersections of 94.15m at an average grade of 0.20% nickel from a depth of 6.4m in hole HOT-001 which also intersected 38.7m averaging 0.26% nickel from 149.3m depth and 38m averaging 0.18% nickel from 226m as well as 0.17% over 93.3m from 276m and 0.16% over 50.85m from 395.15m depth and multiple mineralised intersections at grades of around 0.2% nickel in holes HOT- 003, 004, 005, 006 and 010 at down-hole depths ranging from less than 25m to almost 400m
  • Managing Director, Todd Ross, welcomed the award of the new licence which he said “highlights the district scale opportunity at Pulju … [and said that while the company is looking forward to getting on the ground] … In the meantime, the focus turns to reviewing and processing outstanding assay data from the recent drilling programme, while our exploration team works towards a comprehensive 3D model of the deposit”.
  • He also confirmed that an updated mineral resource estimate was expected before the end of the year “giving us a clearer picture of where to focus our exploration efforts as part of the next phase of drilling”.

Conclusion: We look forward to the remaining assay results from the recent drilling at Holtinvaara and the forthcoming revised mineral resource estimate as well as news of the continuing exploration on the existing and new licence areas.

Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW LN) 15.05p, Mkt cap £91m – LoI signed for potential offtake for gypsum residue from Phalaborwa operation in South Africa

  • Rainbow Rare Earths has signed a Letter of Intent to sell waste gypsum material from their Phalaborwa operations in South Africa.
  • The offtake contract offers the potential for consumers to take the remnant gypsum after Rainbow have extracted fluoride and rare earth elements.
  • The gypsum waste product is said to be benign and free of any acid water residue and will be stored in new lined stacks.
  • Rainbow plans to neutralise any acid and use water from the existing gypsum stacks in its new process plant.
  • NEXUS Intertrade will acquire the gypsum waste for sale within South Africa and internationally on an exclusive five-year offtake once the two sides have agreed on the annual tonnage to be supplied.
  • There will also be an option for contract renewal for a further two five-year periods.
  • Rainbow will work with Nexus to work out a blended average sales price for this gypsum material which is likely to be sold for cement, gypsum board and plaster, domestic agricultural, and into certain international export markets.
  • Demand for the Phalaborwa gypsum is estimated at 400,000 to 600,000tpa giving around 60 years’ worth of material.
  • Depletion of the stacks will allow for eventual environmental rehabilitation of the Phalaborwa gypsum stack site.
  • Gypsum price: Gypsum prices vary widely according to quality and application.  Statista quote US$12/t for crude gypsum FOB US 2022. FTM machinery indicate $35/t in Australia.
  • Alibaba quotes US$2.3-2.5/t for building material gypsum powder alongside ‘Whiteness Cheap gypsum plaster powder for chalk making’ at US$165-235/t.
  • Global gypsum demand is expected to reach 300mtpa in 2030 according to US forecasts.

Conclusion:  Sadly, the likely annual demand for Phalaborwa gypsum will fall far short of the 2.2mt pa which rainbow plans to process at Phalaborwa meaning Rainbow will still need to stack most of its gypsum waste material for many years in a new, lined storage area.

We await further news on the testing of Phalaborwa mixed rare earth sulphate concentrates in the back-end separation process plant being developed by K-Technologies at its Lakeland facility in Florida.  The required CIX ‘continuous ion-exchange and CIC ‘continuous ion chromatography’ units were delivered to Lakeland last March and we are keen to see how well the K-Tech process works.

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Sources of commodity prices  
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt LME
Oil Brent ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore NYMEX
Thermal Coal Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal SSY
RRE Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite Asian Metal

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This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%


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