SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 31st May 2023

Weaker-than-expected Chinese PMI data weigh on risk sentiment

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY 204p – Gilar drilling confirms and extends higher grade deeper zone

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Q1/23 financials

Celsius Resources* (CLA LN) – BUY MCB project NPV@8% US$463m – MCB Project awarded Environmental Compliance Certificate

Golden Metal Resources (GMET LN) – Geological encouragement from Nevada exploration at the Golconda Summit project

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – Q1/23 production struggled with new mobile equipment and improvements in the processing plant expected to help output higher

KEFI Gold & Copper* (KEFI LN) – £6.4m equity placing to progress Tulu Kapi and Saudi Arabia portfolio of assets

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Recent drilling extends mineralisation at Bougouni

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY 17.8p– Positive DIA secured

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Q1 financial results and progress with exploration alliance

Wishbone Gold* (WSBN LN) – Cottesloe drilling attracts WA Government grant support

Economics

Currencies

US$1.0680/eur vs 1.0684/eur yesterday. Yen 139.70/$ vs 140.32/$. SAr 19.787/$ vs 19.841/$. $1.237/gbp vs $1.235/gbp. 0.648/aud vs 0.653/aud. CNY 7.107/$ vs 7.094/$.

 Dollar Index 104.47 vs 104.46 yesterday.

Commodity News

 Precious metals:

Gold US$1,957/oz vs US$1,940/oz yesterday

   Gold ETFs 94.2moz vs US$94.2moz yesterday

Platinum US$1,021/oz vs US$1,032/oz yesterday

Palladium US$1,409/oz vs US$1,440/oz yesterday

Silver US$23.28/oz vs US$23.08/oz yesterday

Rhodium US$6,900/oz vs US$6,900/oz yesterday

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 8,086/t vs US$8,109/t yesterday

Aluminium US$ 2,226/t vs US$2,208/t yesterday

Nickel US$ 20,605/t vs US$21,150/t yesterday

Zinc US$ 2,281/t vs US$2,308/t yesterday

Lead US$ 2,051/t vs US$2,060/t yesterday

Tin US$ 25,400/t vs US$25,530/t yesterday

Energy:           

Oil US$73.5/bbl vs US$76.4/bbl yesterday

• Crude oil prices fell with the front-month WTI spread deepening into contango, signalling ample supplies of physical crude in the market trading at a discount to longer-dated contracts.
• European energy prices were unchanged with French nuclear reactor operating levels reported as decreasing from 61% to 57% of capacity w/w from 32 available reactors (from 35) out of 56 units.

Natural Gas US$2.310/mmbtu vs US$2.346/mmbtu yesterday

Uranium UXC US$53.60/lb vs US$53.60/lb yesterday

Bulk:

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$100.6/t vs US$95.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$512.6/t vs US$516.2/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$98.0/t vs US$98.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$139.0/t vs US$140.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$228.0/t vs US$228.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$29,525/t vs US$30,180/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$70,766/t vs US$68,446/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$39,542/t vs US$39,791/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,010/t vs US$4,010/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,266/t vs US$1,273/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$323/t vs US$325/t

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$760/t vs US$760/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 7.3/lb vs US$7.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 32.15/kg vs US$32.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$314/t vs US$320/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$86.2/t vs US$86.3/kg

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$370.0/kg

Battery News

Company News

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 104p, Mkt Cap £119m – Gilar drilling confirms and extends higher grade deeper zone

BUY – 204p

• Drilling results from the Gilar gold/copper deposit return high grade wide intersections extending limits of the deeper zone of the mineralisation.
• Selected results include:
• 51m at 1.93g/t Au, 1.36% Cu from 333m (22GLDD133);
• 31m at 2.11g/t Au, 2.21% Cu from 322m (23GLDD134);
• 36m at 1.76g/t Au, 1.47% Cu from 312m (23GLDD138);
• 11m at 3.25g/t Au, 1.56% Cu  from 368m (23GLDD139).
• Results both confirm and extend the higher grade deeper zone of the Gilar deposit.
• Development wise, the Company commenced portal construction and tunnelling for the second ventilation tunnel.
• The team reiterated plans to bring high grade Gilar into production in Q4/23.

Conclusion: Infill and step out drilling at Gilar returns high grade wide intersections extending the high grade deeper zone that is likely to grow the inhouse resource estimate currently standing at 5.6mt at 1.37g/t and 0.82% copper. Development works continue on schedule with first production reiterated to start in Q4/23.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining

 Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 1.8p, Mkt Cap £20m – Q1/23 financials

• Net loss amounted to -£0.8m (Q1/22: -£0.3m) mainly reflecting administrative expenses of -£0.6m (Q1/22: -£0.3m).
• Closing cash balance stood at £4.3m (YE22: £1.8m) following a £6.4m equity raise completed in February with £2.0m used to repay the bridging loan.
• The Company held no debt as of quarter end.
• Operationally, in Sweden, the Company released Kallak North Project Scoping Study in January for a 2.7mtpa of high grade iron ore concentrate operation with a 14 year life of mine.
• In Finland, Grafintec, a Company’s subsidiary, secured a new 46ha site in the municipality of Korsholm, Finland for battery anode material production.
• The new site in the ‘GigaVaasa’ area, for the establishment of a GAMP ‘Graphite Anode Materials Plant’ is secured for an initial six months.
• In Kosovo, the Company increased its interest in the Vardar to 61.1% with all activity focused on exploration of identified targets.

Conclusion: Quarterly results highlight strong cash position to progress the Company’s diversified portfolio of assets.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining

 Celsius Resources* (CLA LN) 1.38p, Mkt Cap £30.4m – MCB Project awarded Environmental Compliance Certificate

(Celsius has agreed to sell a 30% economic ownership of MCB copper mine for US$43m implying a valuation of >$143m on consummation of the deal)

Click Link for SP Angel research report PDF note – MCB project NPV@8% US$463m, IRR of 34.3%

• Celsius Resources reports that the Philippines Department of Environment and Natural Resources-Environmental Management Bureau has awarded an Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC) to the company’s MCB copper/gold project on Luzon approximately 320km north of Manila.
• The company explains that securing the ECC is “a vitally important step towards obtaining a Mineral Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA) with the Philippine National Government … [which] … would allow the Company to develop and operate the MCB Project”.
• The MCB project envisages underground mining of a 338mt mineral resource at an average grade of 0.47% copper and 0.12g/t gold with the treatment of 2.25mtpa of ore to produce an average of around 16,000tpa of copper and 19,000oz pa of gold in concentrate over a 25-years mine life, with production weighted towards the initial 10 years of the project.
• Underground mining limits the mine’s surface footprint and allows underground disposal of mine waste to further minimise the environmental impact.
• Earlier this month, the company received a non-binding term sheet offer from Canadian-listed Silvercorp Metals to acquire Celsius Resources “to acquire all of the outstanding shares of CLA at a fixed price of A$0.03 per share in exchange for consideration comprising 90% Silvercorp shares + 10% cash” valuing Celsius Resources at A$56m or £30.2m.
• The agreement with Silvercorp Metals allowed it a one-month period of exclusivity from 2^nd May and included “a binding subscription agreement for A$5 million at a subscription price of A$0.015 (GBP 0.008¹), to be primarily used as interim funding for its Maalinao-Caigutan-Biyog Copper-Gold Project (“MCB Project”) in the Philippines”.
• Although, at the time the approach from Silvercorp Metals was at a premium to Celsius Resources’ trading price, we speculate that today’s announcement of the award of the ECC and removal of a significant hurdle to future mine development may prompt a review of Silvercorp Metals’ terms.
• Silvercorp Metals is described as a profitable mining company which has been mining “silver, lead, zinc deposits in China for 17 years and engages in the acquisition, exploration and development of resource projects globally with a focus on the sustainable, profitable, and long-term production of precious and nonferrous metals such as silver, gold, lead, and zinc”.

Conclusion: Award of the Environmental Compliance Certificate is an important step towards development of the MCB project and may prompt investors to ask Silvercorp to significantly raise their offer for the company.

*SP Angel acts as broker to Celsius Resources

Golden Metal Resources (GMET LN) 7.75p, Mkt Cap £1.8m – Geological encouragement from Nevada exploration at the Golconda Summit project

(Power Metal Resources (POW LN) 0.76p, Mkt cap £15m holds 62% of Golden Metal Resources)

• Golden Metal Resources reports that detailed geological mapping, rock sampling and geochemical analysis has identified significantly anomalous levels of arsenic in samples from the ‘Trench Zone’ at its Golconda Summit project within the Walker Lane Mineral Belt of Nevada.
• The company explains that arsenic is an important pathfinder element for the ‘Carlin’ type gold mineralisation which hosts many of Nevada’s large gold mines.
• Golden Metals Resources concludes that the results, which include 11 of the 52 samples taken returning arsenic levels in excess of 250ppm with 6 of the samples exceeding 500ppm “suggest the presence of a “feeder zone” and therefore the possibility that a Carlin-type gold system may exist within the Project at depth”.
• Confirming that work to define drill targets at Golconda is continuing, CEO, Oliver Friesen, said that the “results presented today give further support that a significant Carlin-type gold system may be present within the Project”.
• The company provides geological background to its exploration at Golconda Summit and explains that the area is “underlain by a thrust faulted Palaeozoic sedimentary sequence which has been transported eastward to its present-day location along the major Golconda Thrust Fault … [which] … represents an important conduit for mineralising fluid flow within northern Nevada”.
• Rock sequences beneath the thrust zone (described as the ‘Lower Plate’ include the “Edna Mountain/Preble Formation and Antler Peak Limestones” and today’s announcement explains that the “Antler Peak Limestone is a known host rock for both Carlin-type (Chimney Creek Mine) and replacement-skarn deposits (Fortitude and Phoenix Mines), the Edna Mountain Formation is the known host rock for the nearby Lone Tree Mine … and the Preble Formation is host to the nearby Preble Mine, located less than 10km from the Project”.

Conclusion: Early-stage exploration work at Golconda Summit is identifying geochemical characteristics typically associated with the ‘Carlin-type’ mineralisation which hosts many of Nevada’s important gold deposits. We await results of follow up exploration with interest.

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 2.4p, Mkt Cap £12m – Q1/23 production struggled with new mobile equipment and improvements in the processing plant expected to help output higher

• Q1/23 gold production amounted to 250oz reflecting a stoppage in mining operations as the team reviewed the mine plan.
• Acid irrigation at stacked heaps was stopped to allow for the spent ore to dry out ahead of a second lift of fresh ore to be stacked.
• Mining has now resumed with production rates expected to reach 60ktpm within three months.
• Stacking of ore onto the heap leach pads resumed in line with mining and is expected to reach 40ktpm over the next few months improving gold production rates.
• The £2.4m raised through a convertible loan note earlier in January 2023 assisted in upgrading mobile equipment as well as parts of the processing plant.
• Front-end loaders, tractor and excavators, and the required plant including a second stacker and vibrating screens delivered to site.
• The Company has also acquired components required to put together the second dry plant including the second agglomeration drum and cement feed.
• New Australian metallurgist sorting out agglomeration issue and grade control.
• Second dry plant is expected to be assembled during June and July that should in turn help with recoveries for oxide material that averaged ~50% so far.
• Residence time for mixing being increased slightly to improve agglomeration by simple change of angle of the agglomeration drum.
• New stacker to improve ore stacking and avoid compaction to improve gold recoveries.
• Separately, New fire assay lab equipment now working on a faster turnaround time for in-pit grade control and heap management.
• The Company is assessing the economics of re-agglomerating the material on existing heaps that contains ~5.6koz.
• Some $1.5m has been invested into new and second hand equipment.
• The team will update production guidance in the near future.

Conclusion: Q1/23 production held back by a pause in mining operations and low recoveries at existing heaps with the team investing in upgrading mobile equipment and improving processing plant performance. Mining is now resumed and recovery rates should improve with better agglomeration, stacking and cyanide solution sprinkling systems. Production is expected to increase trough the year with the team expected to provide 2023 guidance soon.

*SP Angel acts as broker to Goldstone Resources

 KEFI Gold & Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.7p, Mkt Cap £27m – £6.4m equity placing to progress Tulu Kapi and Saudi Arabia portfolio of assets

• The Company announced an equity raise for up to £6.4m at 0.7p to progress development works at the construction ready Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia and a portfolio of precious and base metals projects in Saudi Arabia.
• The placing includes £5.5m with ~786m new shares to be issued and start trading next week.
• The remaining ~£0.9m or 133m shares are conditional and are subject to shareholder approval at the AGM (30 June 2023).
• Proceeds will be used for:
• Completion of project funding and launch of the Tulu Kapi Gold Project with the team expecting binding term sheets to be signed within the next month or so subject to successful satisfaction of outstanding conditions;
• Funding of the Company’s share of costs for a £10m (ie £2.5-3.0m based on expected 25-30% interest) exploration and study programme at Saudi Arabia including a completion of Jibal Qutman DFS and Hawiah  PFS as well as additional prospecting and drilling related expenses across other portfolio projects;
• Covering certain current liabilities and general working capital.

Conclusion: The Company strengthens the balance sheet with a £6.4m equity placing as the team progresses three projects (Tulu Kapi in Ethiopia as well as Jibal Qutmand and Hawiah in Saudi Arabia) along with a suite of early exploration assets. Tulu Kapi funding is nearing completion with the team eyeing start of construction during dry season in Q4/23. Hawiah PFS is due this quarter while Jibal Qutman DFS and mining license is expected to be completed and secured later in the year.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.66p, Mkt Cap £117m – Recent drilling extends mineralisation at Bougouni

Kodal extends long-stop date to 30 June

• Kodal Minerals reports that assaying from its recent drilling has extended mineralisation at its Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali.
• At the high-priority, Boumou, target 7 holes totalling 1,344m of reverse-circulation drilling included an intersection of 24m at an average grade of 1.13% Li2O from a depth of 55m in hole KLRC-193 and the company says that it plans “further drilling to extend and define the pegmatite bodies to allow a new resource estimate to be completed”.
• The company explains that the recent drilling at Boumou “indicates a potential strike length exceeding 750m and up to 1km, providing potential for significant growth in the Boumou prospect defined resource”.
• At the Bougouni South prospect, where the recent campaign consisted of 989m in 6 holes, Kodal Minerals highlights an intersection of 11m at an average grade of 1.14% Li2O from a depth of 71m in hole MDRC-135 which also contained 6m at an average grade of 1.48% Li2O from 101m depth.
• The Bougouni South drilling has “extended the known pegmatite veins to over 500m in strike length and … [shown that the mineralisation] … remains open along strike … [and] … geological logging indicates fine to medium grained mineralisation possibly most suited to flotation processing”.
• Diamond drilling at the Ngoualana prospect in order to “obtain variability test samples … [showed that the mineralisation] … contained abundant spodumene crystals and highlight this prospect as a prime opportunity for the DMS process to successfully produce a high-grade spodumene concentrate”.
• Highlighted results from the Ngoualana drilling include a shallow 37m wide intersection at an average grade of 2.17% Li2O from a depth of 3m to the end of the hole in drillhole MT-004.
• The company also takes the opportunity to announce progress on the delayed funding package with Hainan and its wholly owned UK subsidiary, Xinmao where a further extension to the deadline for completion has been mutually agreed until 30^th June.
• Kodal Minerals confirms that the “approvals the Hainan and Xinmao have received from the Chinese Government authorities, and as announced by the Company on 13 April 2023, remain valid for the parties to complete its funding”.

Conclusion: Recent drilling confirms further extensions to the mineralisation at Bougouni and we await updated mineral resource estimates, particularly for the Boumou prospect, with interest.

*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 4.5p, Mkt Cap £76m – Positive DIA secured

BUY – 17.8p

• The Company received a Positive Declaration of Environmental Impact (DIA) for the revised design and optimisation for the flagship Barroso Lithium Project, Portugal.
• The team reviewed conditions of the agreed to all conditions of the positive DIA after carefully reviewing those with the project now moving to the next stage of the environmental licensing process (RECAPE).
• Among conditions highlighted are obtaining conditional approval to construct the proposed bypass road to join to the A24 motorway and limiting the removal of vegetation from the Project area to certain months of the year.
• Additional terms including not using water from the Covas River and backfilling/partially backfilling/relandscaping the mining areas are reported to have already been included in its submissions to the environmental agency.
• The Company is planning to release an updated Scoping Study in early H2/23 accounting for design adjustments to the original 2018 study with DFS related work to recommence in due course and run in parallel with RECAPE.
• The team also provided the project development roadmap including:
• Updated Scoping Study in early H1/23;
• DFS to follow around six months of fieldwork including geological, geotechnical and metallurgical sampling and drilling with the study expected in H2/24;
• Environmental License and potential strategic/offtake partner selection process completed in 2024;
• FID and start of construction in 2025;
• First Production targeting 200ktpa SC (~25ktp LCE) in 2026.

Conclusion: The decision represents a major milestone in the permitting process and significantly de-risks the project. While the environmental process involves further steps including finalising the project design (RECAPE) that will run in parallel with the DFS work, the DIA is considered to be one of the most crucial ones. The team is now expected to release an updated Scoping Study to reflect latest design changes as well as new commodity price, opex and capex assumptions. We expect new study to highlight strong project economics with higher spodumene prices (2018 Scoping Study used $685/con prices) outweighing any industry related inflation in operating and capital costs. We remain strong buyers of shares reiterating significantly undervalued status of the project with now considerably reduced permitting risks.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

 Serabi Gold (SRB LN) 27.25p, Mkt Cap £21m – Q1 financial results and progress with exploration alliance

• Serabi Gold reports an after-tax profit of US$1.5m for the three months ended 31^st March 2023 (Q1 2022 – US$1.7m and a closing cash balance of US$13.9m (31^st December 2022 – US$7.2m).
• The result reflects the production of 8,055oz of gold at a cash cost of US$1,281/oz “representing an 11% improvement quarter on quarter … [and] … All-In Sustaining Cost for the three-month period to March 2023 of US$1,516 per ounce (Q1 2022 : US$1,810 per ounce) … [which] … represents a 16% improvement compared to Q1 2022”.
• Commenting on the results, CFO, Clive Line, explained that the results “benefitted from continued gold price strength and increasing levels of gold production generated from the Coringa operation”.
• He said that “Gold sales in the quarter were for 6,881 ounces, the result of an accumulation of inventory within the leaching circuit where new tanks have been installed and commissioned”.
• Mr. Line also said that “The Group has reported an impairment provision of $370,000 in respect of the low-grade ore stockpiles at Coringa which will not currently be transported to Palito for processing … [and said that] … In time we anticipate this material being subject to ore-sorting and the subsequent beneficiated product being processed”
• Referring to the copper exploration alliance with Vale announced earlier this month following Serabi Gold’s identification of the Matilda copper porphyry, he confirmed that work “started in April with the understanding that Vale would cover this initial expenditure whilst the final contractual details were completed. This ensured rigs were secured and onsite at the end of the rainy season, and we could maximise the benefit of the drier months. The parties expect that the initial Phase 1 period will be completed during the first quarter of 2024 during which time an exploration budget of up to US$5.0 million is planned”.
• “Whilst the priority for Vale is to identify potential copper ore-bodies, the Phase 1 programme covers a number of Serabi’s gold targets as well and we will benefit directly from the exploration activities that are planned to be conducted over these areas”.

Conclusion: The exploration alliance with Vale to progress exploration of the Matilda and other copper opportunities has moved ahead rapidly with drilling rigs deployed ahead of the end of the rainy season to maximise the available exploration time available when the dry season starts.

Wishbone Gold* (WSBN LN) – 2.1p, Mkt Cap £3.9m – Cottesloe drilling attracts WA Government grant support

• Wishbone Gold reports that its plans to drill the Cottesloe project in the Paterson Range area of Western Australia have received a grant of A$220,000 under the WA Government’s Exploration Incentive Scheme (EIS).
• Under the Scheme, which “which offers up to a 50 per cent contribution for innovative exploration drilling projects” drilling work must be completed by the end of May 2024.
• In an earlier announcement, released in April 2023, the company described the potential for copper mineralisation at the base of the Neoproterozoic age Broadhurst Formation where it overlies the Coolbro Sandstone Formation in a geological setting similar to that at the Nifty copper mine around 50km north of Cottesloe.
• Nifty was discovered by Western Mining in the early 1980s and operated until 2019 having produced around 700,000t of copper according to the project’s current owners, Cyprium Metals.
• Sampling by BHP in the southeast part of the Cottesloe project area showed a 3km long copper in soil anomaly over the Broadhurst Formation

Conclusion: Securing grant funding under the WA Government’s Exploration Incentive Scheme for drilling at Cottesloe reflects independent validation of the exploration concept as well as the financial support. We look forward to results from the drilling in due course.

SP Angel Acts as Broker to Wishbone Gold

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474

 Sales

Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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