SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 30th July 2025

Copper suffers as China politburo policy meeting disappoints

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – MoU for feedstock and product offtake from Ferrandina Plant in Italy

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – Energy storage plans for Parys Mountain

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – £500k placing to support drilling programmes

Champion Iron Ore (CIA AU) – Weak iron ore premiums hit margins

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Chancellor’s visit highlights South Crofty’s rejuvenation as a catalyst for Cornish employment

Emerald Resources (EMR AU) – Aiming to boost gold production in Cambodia

Focus Xplore –(FOX LN) – Initial exploration identifies three priority areas in Ontario

Glencore* (GLEN LN) – Copper division weakness and weak metallurgical prices persist

Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) – FY25 production update and FY26 guidance

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Interim results reflect lower iron ore prices offset by aluminium and copper operations

Sayona Mining (SYA AU) – FY25 production update

Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM AU) – A$11.5m placing to advance the Colossus RE Project

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

Copper ($9,775/t) suffers as China politburo policy meeting disappoints

• Copper prices have continued to ease from their recent tariff-induced spike higher.
• The metal had also been lifted higher by optimism from China’s property sector and expected government crackdown on overcapacity.
• The Politburo policy readout noted aims for a more proactive fiscal agenda and looser monetary policy, without any major policy announcements.
• Additionally, the copper market has been eyeing China’s smelter capacity overexpansion, with TCRC fees sliding negative amid a dearth of concentrate supply for newly built Chinese smelters.
• Overcapacity crackdowns from Beijing seem to be more bark than bite, with lithium, coking coal and silicon reversing gains this week.
• Tightness in LME and SHFE inventories is easing as traders unwind their Trump tariff trade of moving metal into the US to take advantage of the cross-Atlantic arbitrage opportunity.

China is actively closing non-compliant, inefficient and polluting mines in specific sectors

Officials are shutting down oversupply to a more managed supply situation as the CCP looks to raise margins and wealth to stimulate consumption

• Lithium – China’s NEA ‘National Energy Administration’ initiated a series of inspections earlier this month following a high-level meeting at the start of the month.
• The checking of permits versus permitted resources along with pollution and other issues are being used to crack down on overproduction.
• Rare Earths – focus more on consolidation and control rather than containment of pollution

• 23 illegal REE mines shut down in Guangxi province in Q1 (Discoveryalert.com)

• China recently issued new quotas on REE production
• REE smuggling networks targeted
• Environmental remediation now being enforced at sites of illegal extraction.
• Bayan Obo REE mine one of China’s largest rare earth producers in Inner Mongolia in 2024 was suspended for environmental reasons.
• https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-66cdf862-5e96-4e6e-90b8-a407b597c8d9

• Coal – China has closed thousands of coal mines in recent years to improve overall efficiency and reduce pollution

China’s focus is evolving towards a more ‘economic’ economy as the country moves into a new phase of national development

• Involution from overproduction and excessive competition is being reigned in as China conserves its national champions and allows for new wealth creation.

Wealth creation is back in, as China looks for new local consumers to replace demand from the US

• Is China bowing to Trump’s fighting talk on consumption, or does it now suit China to drive domestic consumption and tolerate new inflation as it allows input costs to rise?.

Has China ditched its drive to lower raw material prices and other input costs for manufacturers?

• Or is China reducing overcapacity so it can Weaponise more metals through the restriction of low-cost exports?

China is actively encouraging Restructuring in EV manufacturing. Seven key companies are likely to emerge.

• In the solar manufacturing sector where excessive competition is crushing margins while the rest of the world benefits from cheap China state-subsidised solar panels
• Will China now move to restrict exports of low-margin tech like solar?

US Tariffs have also caused China to revisit its policy of driving capacity growth

• China recognises it cannot simply expect the US to buy so much of its production
• So many US companies depend on low-cost Chinese goods to support their margins.

US margins: Higher tariffs, inventory costs, disruption costs and a collapse in demand driven by uncertainty is depressing US corporate earnings

• Somero Enterprises which manufactures laser-guided and technologically innovative machinery used in horizontal concrete placement expects “challenging” conditions to persist in the US market this year
• Strix Group which makes kettle controls and water filtration report “indirect tariff impacts and a weaker US$, have led to reduced Q225 sales volumes and contributed to order delays in the Group’s Controls division.”

China – proportion of loss-making industrial companies rises >20% this year

• China PPI is below -2%,
• Real estate prices are falling at ~5-6%pa,
• Consumer sentiment remains negative,
• China exports rose 7.2% yoy in H1 to CNY13tn, a new record

China looking to boost domestic demand through increasing the share of household income vs national income

• This is what the US has been asking China to do for over the past 15-20 years
• Domestic consumption in 2023 was only 39% of GDP in China and 68% in the US
• Consumption in 2023 was only 39% of GDP and 68% in the US
• The CCP plan to start to rebalance income inequality particularly between urban and rural areas.

Demographics – China is raising its retirement age due to shrinkage in the workforce. Fewer workers equals lower demand hence the focus on higher-tech and higher-margin industries

• Release of savings: Provision of state services to help households release savings, eg state healthcare (NHS-lite), state education and state care for the elderly

CCP may be looking to control more commodities following their successful use of the Rare Earth market in tariff negotiations with Trump

• Chinese officials are cracking down on lithium miners starting with polluting, inefficient and overproducing mines, citing permit issues on mines in Yichun, Jiangxi province.
• The mines are required to produce resource and reserve reports/permits to confirm they are mining in licensed areas.
• The move may also be a part of the closing phase of China’s 14^th 5-year plan with officials tidying up according to the plan’s objectives.
• New SSIR, structural reform, appears to be on cutting excessive competition in EVs, solar panel manufacturing and raw materials while improving productivity.
• Part of this policy may also result in reduced exports to the west, particularly when these exports are effectively at the expense of subsidised energy and China Inc. in general

Restructuring also in:

• Real estate construction
• Steel, cement, aluminium. nickel and glass
• Solar and hydrogen electrolysers
• Semiconductors (Legacy)
• Industrial machinery
• IT equipment
• Offshoring of capacity in consumer electronics

Economics

US – FOMC rate decision due later today with expectations for no change (4.25%-4.50%).

• Market continues to forecast just about two rate cuts before YE with the first one coming in October.

Eurozone – The region reported an expansion in quarterly GDP but only marginal with Germany and Italy, the region’s biggest and third largest members, posting a contraction.

• Tariffs uncertainty weighed on spending and investment while front running in orders seen in Q1 unwound.
• Eurozone grew 0.1%qoq v 0.6% in 1Q25 and 0.0% forecast.
• Germany (%qoq, 2Q/1Q/Est): -0.1/0.3(revised from 0.4)/-0.1
• France (%qoq, 2Q/1Q/Est): 0.3/0.1/0.1
• Italy (%qoq, 2Q/1Q/Est): -0.1/0.3/0.1

Currencies

US$1.1556/eur vs 1.1565/eur previous. Yen 148.08/$ vs 148.43/$. SAr 17.851/$ vs 17.938/$. $1.336/gbp vs $1.334/gbp. 0.650/aud vs         0.651/aud. CNY 7.177/$ vs 7.176/$.

Dollar Index 98.78 vs 98.82 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,328/oz vs US$3,328/oz previous

Gold ETFs 91.7moz vs 91.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,388/oz vs US$1,386/oz previous

Palladium US$1,256/oz vs US$1,247/oz previous

Silver US$38.1/oz vs US$38.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,050/oz vs US$6,750/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,773/t vs US$9,777/t previous

Aluminium US$2,613/t vs US$2,610/t previous

Nickel US$15,195/t vs US$15,195/t previous

Zinc US$2,798/t vs US$2,805/t previous

Lead US$2,011/t vs US$2,011/t previous

Tin US$33,930/t vs US$33,600/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$72.8/bbl vs US$70.0/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices moved higher as President Trump stepped up his rhetoric towards Russia, while the Kremlin dismissed the likelihood that President Putin would change course in response to the US threats.
• The API estimated w/w builds of 1.5mb to crude (-2.5mb exp) and 4.2mb to distillate, offset by a 1.7mb draw to gasoline stocks.
• European energy prices were stable with France’s nuclear generation rising 2% w/w to 69% of 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €34.6/MWh vs €33.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.2/lb vs $71.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$111.2/t vs US$110.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$470.5/t vs US$469.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$177.0/t vs US$177.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$118.0/t vs US$117.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$72,521/t vs US$72,739/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,879/t vs US$9,824/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$840/t vs US$840/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$443/mtu vs US$443/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.9/lb vs US$4.9/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.7/kg vs US$23.7/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$282/t vs US$282/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,094/t vs US$1,094/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Tesla signs $4.3bn LFP battery deal with LG Energy Solution

• Tesla has signed a $4.3bn contract with South Korea’s LG Energy Solution (LGES) to supply lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LFP) for its energy-storage systems.
• The LFP cells will be produced at LGES’s Michigan plant, one of the few US-based LFP facilities, lessening reliance on Chinese imports and helping Tesla avoid higher US tariffs on Chinese batteries.
• Supply is scheduled from August 2027 to July 2030, with options to extend the term by up to seven years and increase volumes.
• LGES began LFP output in Michigan in May and is considering converting additional EV-battery lines to energy-storage use as EV demand cools.
• The agreement follows the $16.5bn Tesla–Samsung chip deal signed this week and underscores Tesla’s broader push to localise key components in North America.

China car exports reach 3.48m, 41% NEV share, in H1 2025

• China exported 3.48m cars in H1 2025, an 18% yoy increase.
• June shipments were 620,000 units, 28% higher than a year earlier but 10% below May’s level.
• Mexico, UAE and the UK were the leading destinations in June, taking 40,391, 39,432 and 28,664 vehicles respectively.
• For the first half, Mexico remained the largest market at 280,097 units, followed by UAE with 228,979 and Russia with 180,067. The UK was the 8^th largest market in H1, importing 136,297 units.
• NEVs made up 41% of June exports as volumes jumped 92% yoy to 256,000 units.
• NEV exports reached 1.42 m in H1, a 41% share of all vehicle shipments for the period.

Company news

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.27p, Mkt cap £11m – MoU for feedstock and product offtake from Ferrandina Plant in Italy

(80 Mile holds 49% of Hydrogen Valley which owns the Ferrandina Plant in Italy with an option to move to 100% for an aggregate £6.05m in either cash or shares over two years.)

(80 Mile also holds of White Flame Energy, 100% of the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects and all its Greenland prospects)

• 80 Mile report the signing of an MoU between Greenswitch Srl, a subsidiary of Hydrogen Valley Ltd and NACATA Commodities on feedstock and product offtake at the Ferrandina plant in Italy.
• The MOU outlines a potential five-year supply and offtake agreement for the Ferrandina plant in southern Italy, under which NACATA would supply up to 120,000tpa of feedstock and take the end products.
• This is expected to include ~40,000tpa of esterified bioliquid and 80,000tpa of biodiesel.
• Ferrandina can refine secondary feedstocks including palm oil mill effluent, used cooking oil, animal fats, and acid oils for biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel.

Conclusion: Management continue to demonstrate their ability to source and develop projects for substantial value creation. We look forward to 80 Mile plc moving to acquire 100% of the Ferrandina plant and to become a significant supplier of biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel within Europe.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland.

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) 0.78p, Mkt Cap £3.8m – Energy storage plans for Parys Mountain

• Anglesey Mining has signed a letter-of-intent with RheEnergise Limited to progress development of a high density fluid hydro-power storage project at its Parys Mountain mine site near Amlwch.
• The agreement creates the basis for “the formation of a jointly owned special purpose vehicle (SPV) with the purpose of having the Parys Mountain site be the first commercial deployment of the High Density Hydro System”.
• The partners have agreed “to deploy resources into the SPV: financial, time, material, leases over land and IP and also to conduct a feasibility study over the project” and in the event of a successful outcome to the study to “use their best endeavours to bring the Project to fruition”.
• Anglesey Mining confirms that its priority remains the development of a polymetallic mine at Parys Mountain while also explaining that a “Pre-feasibility study (PFS) in the energy storage scheme is underway”.
• Today’s announcement says that the power storage project might serve as a “catalyst for the commencement of mining of the Parys Mountain VMS mineral deposits”.

Conclusion: Initial studies on the energy storage potential at Parys Mountain have prompted Anglesey Mining and its collaborative partner, RheEnergise, to formalise a letter-of-intent to progress their evaluation to a pre-feasibility study.

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) 0.3p, Mkt Cap £1.8m – £500k placing to support drilling programmes

• Arkle Resources has raised £500k gross via a private placement.
• The Company will issue 166,667k new shares at 0.3p/share.
• Additionally, each placing share holds one warrant at an exercise price of 0.3p/share over a two year period.
• Management is also participating in the placing, with John Teeling and David Cockbill both subscribing for 8,333k new shares respectively.
• Placing funds will be used to progress Arkle’s assets in Ireland and Botswana, where they hold both base metals and lithium/magnesium interests.
• Arkle’s partner Group Eleven has been active in Ireland and is set to drill a prospective target on the Carrickittle licence later this year.
• Drilling is also due to commence in Botswana, where Arkle holds 1,612sqkm of ground.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Arkle

Champion Iron Ore (CIA AU) A$4.8, Mkt Cap A$2.56bn – Weak iron ore premiums hit margins

• High-grade iron ore concentrate producer Champion reports quarterly results for 1QFY26.
• Bloom Lake:
  • Iron ore concentrate produced up 11%qoq to 3.52mt, down 9%yoy.
  • Company milled 10.5mt of ore, up 15%qoq and down 5%yoy.
  • Head grade of 28.2% Fe down 3%qoq and yoy .
• Production performance impacted by lower grades and hardness of ore processed seeing recoveries fall to 78.2% from 79.3%.
• Company is aiming to optimise operations to improve recoveries via grinding efficiency modifications.
• Financials:
  • Revenue down 8%qoq and 16%yoy to C$390m for the quarter.
  • OPEX up 12%qoq and 19%yoy to C$313m.
  • Average realised selling price down 16%qoq and 25%yoy to C$102/t vs AISC of C$96.2/t.
  • EBITDA reported at C$58m, vs C$181m same period last year on weaker prices and higher costs.
  • EPS of $0.05 generated over the period.
• Lower freight rates and increased sales volumes offset by lower average realised selling prices as P65 Index price fell.
• C$47.5m of CAPEX invested into the DRPF pelletiser upgrade project.

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) 7.25p, Mkt Cap £91m – Chancellor’s visit highlights South Crofty’s rejuvenation  as a catalyst for Cornish employment

• Yesterday, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, visited Cornish Metals’ South Crofty tin mine taking the opportunity to observe progress with refurbishment of surface and underground mine infrastructure and the operation of the water treatment plant.
• The visit follows the financial injection, earlier this year, of ~£29m by the UK Government via the National Wealth Fund.
• The Chancellor explained that the investment aims to help “revive Cornwall’s proud tin mining industry and … [create] … thousands of jobs” in Cornwall.
• CEO, Don Turvey, welcomed the opportunity to show “the significant progress we’re making as we move toward production … [and confirmed that Cornish Metals’] … focus remains on delivering long-term, sustainable value safely, responsibly, and with deep roots in the community”.
• He stressed Cornish Metals’ pride in “playing a role in bringing responsible tin mining back to Cornwall and supporting economic renewal and industrial growth in the region”.
• In an announcement last week, the company confirmed progress towards a resumption of production “in the first half of 2028”.

Conclusion: During a visit to Cornwall the Chancellor of the Exchequer has highlighted the opportunity to create long-term sustainable employment through a resumption of mining at South Crofty.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker. An SP Angel analyst formerly worked in the South Crofty tin mine in the 1980s and holds shares in Cornish Metals

Emerald Resources (EMR AU) A$3.45, Mkt Cap A$2.3bn – Aiming to boost gold production in Cambodia

• Cambodian gold miner Emerald reports quarterly results from its Okvau mine.
• 19.1koz produced from 596kt ore processed at 1.18g/t Au and 84.9% recoveries.
• AISC of $1,318/oz, steady qoq.
• Pre-tax operating cash flow of A$48m over the quarter.
• Emerald previously reduced guidance on accelerated earthworks and waste movements related to cut back activities restricting floor access.
• Retains production guidance for 2025 with 25-30koz at AISC of $900-1,000/oz produced in both 3Q25 and 4Q25.
• Company expects to produce 105-120koz at AISC of $966/oz in FY26.
• Cash and bullion position of A$224m vs $209m previous quarter, with A$17m spent on exploration and A$10m on CAPEX.
• Final repayment made to Sprott debt facility in April leaves Emerald debt-free.
• Company’s Dingo Project in WA saw MRE increase to 39.9mt at 1.1g/t Au for 1.36moz, with permitting and development studies underway.
• Memot Project in Cambodia saw updated MRE of 31.4mt at 1.3g/t Au for 1.34moz, permitting also progressing in advance of development.
• Near mine expansion ongoing at Okvau, exploring below pit extensions and resource delineation drilling for industrial mining application in CY25.
• Path to 300kozpa target:
  • Okvau gold mine underground and pit extensions/expansion due to come online CY26
  • Development of standalone Cambodian Memot operation in CY26.
  • Develop Dingo Range project over CY26.

Focus Xplore –(FOX LN) 0.04p, Mkt Cap £0.9m – Initial exploration identifies three priority areas in Ontario

• Focus Xplore has provided a progress report on exploration of its lithium and rare-earth elements (REE) projects in western Ontario.
• The company confirms that its initial exploration has been completed at the Bay Road REE project and at the Iva, Oba, Ellie, Pearl and Burrows lithium projects with sampling, mapping and prospecting at 226 pegmatite locations.
• CEO, Patrick Cullen explained that the results are still being assessed and that “Bay Road, Iva and Oba are identified as priority projects”.  Other projects are given lower priority based on the “limited number of pegmatites observed in the field”.
• Mr. Cullen explained that the “Staking of the Ontario REE and lithium portfolio was strongly influenced by data from historic lake sediment sampling programmes conducted by the Ontario Geological Survey … [and that in] … the past month we have applied Planetary AI Limited’s Xplore system to that same lake sediment data, using its capabilities to analyse over a full range of elements from 63,000 discrete data points across Northwestern Ontario to review prospectivity at existing project locations as well as elsewhere in the region. The initial findings are encouraging, we are looking to expand on this approach”.

Conclusion: Initial exploration of the Ontario REE and lithium projects has identified three priority areas.

Glencore* (GLEN LN) 311p, Mkt Cap £37bn – Copper division weakness and weak metallurgical prices persist

• Glencore reports 1H25 results.
• Production:
  • Copper fell 26%yoy to 344kt, guidance reduced to 850-890kt (from 850-910kt).
  • Cobalt up 19%yoy to 18.9kt, guidance changed to 42-45kt (from 40-45kt).
  • Zinc at 465kt, up 12%yoy, guidance tightened to 940-980kt (from 930-990kt).
  • Ferrochrome down 28%yoy to 433kt.
  • Steelmaking coal at 15.7mt for the period, with guidance retained at 30-35mt for 2025.
  • Energy coal at 48.3kt, up 2%, guidance increased to 90-96kt (from 87-95kt).
• Lower copper production reflects lower head grades and recoveries at Collahuasi, Antapaccay, Antamina and KCC, in line with mine sequencing.
• Lower ferrochrome production reflects weak smelting conversion margins, triggering the suspension of smelters.
• Strong energy coal production reflects increased Australian output, offsetting cuts from Cerrejon.
• Unit Costs:
  • Copper: $2.25/lb vs $1.70/lb same period 2024
  • Steelmaking Coal: $108/t vs $140/t same period last year
  • Energy coal: $65/t vs 73/t same period last year
• Realised Prices:
  • Copper: $9,043/t
  • Zinc: $2,753/t
  • Nickel: $15,370/t
  • Steelmaking Coal: $167/t (274/t same period last year)
  • Energy Coal: $79/t (109/t same period last year)
• Marketing:
  • EBIT guidance range increased from $2.2-3.2bn to $2.3-3.5bn long-term amid growth in metals and energy business via LNG, alumina, steelmaking coal and lithium
• Company suspends the Boshoek and Wonderkop ferroalloy smelters amid weak ferrochrome markets.
• Management notes the completion of an industrial asset portfolio review which has identified c.$1bn in cost savings vs 2024, delivered by 2026-end.

Conclusion: Continued weakness in Glencore’s copper division as lower feed grades impact guidance. Weak metallurgical coal prices limiting cash generation from last year’s Elk Valley acquisition. Marketing EBIT guidance raised as Company diversifies commodity base. Production weighted to 2H25.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Glencore

Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) A$1.7, Mkt Cap A$5.4bn – FY25 production update and FY26 guidance

• The Company released FY25 update on its lithium operations in Pilbara, WA.
• 4QFY25 results include:
  • 221kt produced
  • 216kt sold at an average realised price of US$703/SC6.0 ($599/SC5.1 sold)
  • US$397/t and US$462/t in operating costs FOB and CIF
• FY25 results came in line with the annual guidance including:
  • 755kt produced (+4%yoy)
  • 707kt sold at an average realised price of US$769/SC6.0 (+7%yoy and -43%yoy)
  • US$406/t and $476/t in operating costs FOB and CIF (-5%yoy and -11%yoy)
• 4QFY25 revenue A$193m (+28%qoq) helped by higher sales volumes following P100 expansion project completion in March 2025 partly offset by lower lithium prices.
• Plant processed 1.1mt at 1.4% Li2O in 4QFY25 and 3.8mt at 1.4% Li2O in FY25.
• Average grade of shipped product of SC5.1 was affected by temporary impacts of P1000 commissioning and ramp up with concentrate grades returning to typical SC5.2-SC5.3.
• Plant recoveries averaged 71.6% during the quarter.
• Quarterly operating costs were down 8%qoq on CIF basis reflecting higher production volumes.
• Closing cash balance stood at ~A$1.0B, down A$88m from 3QFY25.
• FY26 guidance
  • 820-870kt production
  • Under the P850 operating model, the Ngungaju Plant is expected to remain on care and maintenance through FY26.
  • US$365-390 operating costs FOB (A$560-600/t)
  • A$300-330m in total capex, down from A$569m FY25 with focus on existing operations and efficiency enhancing activities.
• A$40-45m is budgeted for Colina Lithium Project in Brazil that will be expenses (ie not included in FY26 capex guidance) and focus on exploration and overhead costs.
• FY26 strategy is focused on optimisation of existing production facilities and further cost reductions in unit operating costs driven by expanded production capacity

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 4,615.5p, Mkt cap £58bn – Interim results reflect lower iron ore prices offset by aluminium and copper operations

1. Rio Tinto reports a 22% decline in interim net earnings to US$4.5bn (H1 2024 – US$5.8bn), and a 5% fall in underling EBITDA to US$11.5bn (H2 2024 – US$12.1bn.
2. The company delivered these results “despite a 13% lower iron ore price, demonstrate the growing contribution from our Aluminium and Copper businesses and our Pilbara operations’ strong recovery from the four cyclones in the first quarter”.
3. Net debt of “$14.6 billion at 30 June 2025 increased by $9.1 billion compared to 2024 year end, including completion of the Arcadium … [lithium] … acquisition in March”.
4. The company has declared an interim dividend of USȼ148/share representing “a 50% payout, in line with our practice”.
5. The company highlights the projected initial shipment of iron ore from Simandou which is expected in November as well as the opening of the Western Range iron ore project on both time and on budget and the start of construction at Hope Downs 2 and Brockman Syncline 1 “following receipt of all necessary approvals”.
6. Describing the economic context, Rio Tinto comments on “GDP growth of 5.3% YoY in H1 2025” in China while cautioning on “headwinds such as trade tensions and a soft property market … [which] … continue to pose challenges”.
7. Describing global geopolitical “tensions and trade barriers … [posing] … near-term economic risks … [Rio Tinto comments on] … robust macroeconomic momentum, driven by resilient domestic demand, expanding trade and strategic investment flows” in the ‘Global South’.
8. In the United States, Rio Tinto says that the “impact of tariffs is still feeding through to inflation and sentiment”.
9. Chief Executive, Jakob Stausholm described the results as “very resilient … with an improving operational performance helped by our increasingly diversified portfolio”.
10. He said that Rio Tinto remains “on track to deliver strong mid-term production growth, with solid foundations in place and a diverse pipeline of options for the future.”
11. Production guidance for 2025 remains intact across all commodity groups.

Conclusion: Rio Tinto has declared an interim dividend of US$1.48/share and describes its project pipeline as offering strong production growth and resilience..

Sayona Mining (SYA AU) A$1.7, Mkt Cap A$242m – FY25 production update

• The Company released operating update for its North American Lithium Mine (NAL) in Quebec, Canada.
• 4QFY25 results include:
  • 59kt SC5.2 produced
  • 357kt processed at 1.18% Li2O with recoveries hitting a record 73%
  • 67kt sold and an average realised price of A$1,054/t FOB
  • A$1,232/t operating costs FOB
• FY25 results came in line with the guidance including:
  • 205kt SC5.4 produced (+31%yoy)
  • 209kt sold at an average realised price of A$1,069/t FOB (+32%yoy and -16%yoy)
  • A$1,290/t operating costs FOB (-9%yoy)
• Closing cash balance fell to A$72m, down from A$89m 3QFY25.
• FY26 guidance to be released together with FY25 financial results late August 2025.
• The Company reiterated its support for the merger with Piedmont targeting 12 August completion.
• Sayona will hold an EGM to vote on the deal on 31 July.

Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM AU) A$1.1, Mkt Cap A$97m – A$11.5m placing to advance the Colossus RE Project

• The Company raises A$11.5m at A$0.91 to progress development of the Colossus Rare Earth Project in Brazil.
• The placing price represents a ~9% discount to the last closing price.
• Chairman committed A$250k (subject to shareholder approval).
• Following settlement of the placing the Company is expected to hold a A$58.5m cash position.
• It is expected to see the Company through to FID in 2H26.
• Funds to be used to accelerate critical path work streams including MREC demonstration plant, DFS, the next phase of environmental approvals and additional drilling.
• DFS is targeted for 2Q26.
• EIA application was submitted January 2025 with approval of the Preliminary License anticipated in the coming months.
• The focus will then shift to the Installation License.
• The Company released the PFS for the ionic adsorption clay project earlier in July:
  • 20y LOM operation
  • 5tmpa processing plant treating 3,380ppm TREO material (936ppm MREO)
  • MREO recoveries 76%
  • 9.4ktpa TREO including 3.5ktpa MREO in MREC
  • MREC 70% payability used
  • US$358m capex
  • NPV8 AT and IRR AT of US$899m and 34% at 90$/kg NdPr
  • NPV8 AT and IRR AT of US$1,289m and 43% at 110$/kg NdPr (US DoD/MP price floor agreed).

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

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