SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 30th April 2025

Copper slides as US tariffs impact despite forecast that China stocks will run out

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Adriatic Metals (ADT LN) – Q1 Results show production impacted by weather and TSF delays

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – 2024 results highlight progress at the Boland rare-earths project in South Australia

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Sales of large diamonds from Letšeng delayed by tariff uncertainty

Gemfields Group (GEM LN) – Jaipur emerald auction realises improved prices

Glencore (GLEN LN) – Production report shows disappointing copper production

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) – Quarterly report highlights progress on Tannenberg Copper Project in Germany

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) – Positive geological assessment of the Tempiute tungsten project, Nevada

Power Metals Resources* (POW LN) – (Power Metals* holds a 19.5% stake in Guardian Metal Resources)

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) – Trial processing of high-grade copper ore at the Roan concentrator, Zambia

Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) – BUY, TP 4.4p – 1Q25 operations update

Perseus Mining (PRU AU) – Steady cashflows from West African operations as Nyanzaga greenlit

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 18.1p – Phase 2 drilling is >60% complete with assays increasing confidence in the Barroso grade and tonnage

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Chairman targets >100,000oz pa gold production post-2026

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Strong cash position to take the Kasiya rutile and graphite project through the Q4 DFS and beyond

Sylvania Platinum (SLP LN) – Guidance increased as first chrome from Thaba JV looms

Tolu Minerals (TOK AU) – A$27m equity raise to fund gold production and exploration in PNG

Copper ($9,260/t) slides as US tariffs impact despite forecast that China stocks will run out

• Copper fell this morning as China manufacturing data showed slumping output.
• Chinese factory activity fell into the worst contraction since December 2023 on tariff impacts and ongoing economic slowdown.
  • China Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in April vs 50.5 in March (NBS)
• Elsewhere, Codelco boosted production by 22% in April yoy, with management aiming to reach 1.7mt by 2030.
• SHFE inventories have now fallen to under 100,000t of copper inventory with the LME also pulling back to 202,800t.
• US copper imports seeing significant increases with YTD US imports of copper rising 78.1% yoy (255,000t).  The US imported around 850,000t of copper, (ex.scrap, last year.
• Comex copper stocks have rises on local premiums to the 3-month price though relatively little physical trade has been seen at these levels with spreads offering >$1,000/t this week
• The move may be partly driven by traders buying metal to cover short positions as the market waits to find out what Trump will do with copper tariffs and copper scrap exports out of the US.
• The shortage of scrap into China is a major issue with US scrap processors ramping up capacity and consuming more of the 1mt of copper exported our of the US last year.
• Demand for copper should continue to rise as nations work to upgrade their electricity grids.
• The collapse of the power grid in Spain and Portugal this week suggests substantial new investment is needed to maintain grid stability in the current climate and with more generators feeding into the grid system.
• China is also consuming more as it expands its energy infrastructure
• While Trump tariffs threaten to create a mini-recession in the west, we feel that new stimulus in China and much of Asia will continue to keep manufacturers going and drive growth.
• Mercuria, a major trading group forecasts China will run out of copper this year
• Cu mine production looks likely to decline this year as some miners fail to hit their targets. Often weather related.
• There is still insufficient power in Zambia despite heavy rains across the Copperbelt according to local sources indicating ongoing potential for power outages in the region.

Gold ($3,280/oz) slides as market settles into state of calm

• Gold prices have edged lower, as profit take continues following the jump to $3,500/oz.
• We note a general sense of calm in the markets, with Treasury yields sliding below 4.2% on the 10 year, the VIX falling further and equity markets rebounding.
• A steady thawing of tensions between the US and China, and rising expectations of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, are reducing haven demand.
• However, the US economy continues to show signs of slowing, with JOLTs data yesterday showing fewer job openings available.
• Consumer confidence hit five year lows in April, further supporting the slide in yields.
• ETFs are seeing gold outflows, further reinforcing the profit taking theory.
• The WGC highlights limited appetite from US retail for gold vs Asia and Europe, with China seeing a jump in appetite for gold bars.
• Chinese retail investors are seeking haven assets amid the ongoing property market contraction, depreciating currency and weak equity markets.
• On the yuan, Bloomberg highlights it is facing its biggest drop since 2019 against a basket of global currencies, despite the dollar’s selloff.
• Central banks continue to buy gold, adding 244t in 1Q25, albeit down 20% yoy.

Economics

US – President Trump reiterated criticism of the Fed Chair and defended his economic policies arguing that tariffs would attract manufacturing back to the US and accelerate economic growth.

• “Inflation is basically down and interest rates came down despite the fact that I have a Fed person who’s not really doing a good job,” Trump said.
• Separately, despite standing behind latest trade tariffs President Trump signed directives easing some of those including providing a two year reduction in 25% auto parts levies for components.
• Latest polls show that voters are not sharing Trump’s outlook and are worried that trade barriers would tip the economy into a recession and increase inflation.
• Inflation expectations have trending higher hitting multi year highs lately with consumer sentiment pulling back.
• Data released yesterday showed consumer expectations hit the lowest level since GFC in late 2000s.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Apr/Mar/Est): 86.0/92.9/88.0
• Conference Board Present Situation (Apr/Mar/Est): 133.5/134.5/NA
• Conference Board Expectations (Apr/Mar/Est): 54.4/65.2/NA
• Tariffs on car parts are likely to be reimbursed to ease the pain on automotive manufacturers

US equity futures are off slightly this morning ahead of earnings from mega cap tech companies including Microsoft and Meta.

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are off 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
• 10y Treasuries trended lower trading at ~4.15% on recession concerns and expectation for the Fed to start cutting rates.
• Markets are currently pricing in just under four rate cuts this year with the first one coming in July.

China – Official and private economic growth gauges showed slowing momentum in April amid escalating trade tensions with the US.

• Official manufacturing PMI showed the sector slipped into a contraction this month the data showed marking a sharper than expected drop.
• Manufacturing PMI (Apr/Mar/Est): 49.0/50.5/49.7
• Services PMI (Apr/Mar/Est): 50.4/50.8/50.6
• Composite PMI (Apr/Mar/Est): 50.2/51.4
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr/Mar/Est): 50.4/51.2/49.7

France

• GDP (%qoq, 1Q/4Q/Est): 0.1/-0.1/0.1
• GDP (%yoy, 1Q/4Q/Est): 0.8/0.8(revised from 0.6)/0.7

Germany

• GDP (%qoq, 1Q/4Q/Est: 0.2/-0.2/0.2
• GDP (%yoy, 1Q/4Q/Est): -0.2/-0.2/-0.2

UK – Property prices post the largest drop in nearly two years as tax breaks expire and consumer sentiment falls, Nationwide data showed.

• Average price fell 0.6%mom to ~£270k after being flat the previous month.
• Prices were still up 3.4%yoy.
• “The market is likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays,” Nationwide commented on the data.
• Mortgage rate remained elevated weighing on demand with the average 2y rate at 5.20%, down from 5.5% at the start of the year.
• Markets are expecting the central bank to cut rates at least three times this year.

Currencies

US$1.1386/eur vs 1.1398/eur previous. Yen 142.73/$ vs 142.43/$. SAr 18.568/$ vs 18.547/$. $1.340/gbp vs $1.342/gbp. 0.640/aud vs 0.642/aud. CNY 7.264/$ vs 7.269/$

Dollar Index 99.230 vs 99.174 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,312/oz vs US$3,317/oz previous

Gold ETFs 89.0moz vs 89.1moz previous

Platinum US$978/oz vs US$992/oz previous

Palladium US$935/oz vs US$949/oz previous

Silver US$33.0/oz vs US$33.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,375/oz vs US$5,375/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,334/t vs US$9,411/t previous

Aluminium US$2,456/t vs US$2,442/t previous

Nickel US$15,620/t vs US$15,610/t previous

Zinc US$2,645/t vs US$2,658/t previous

Lead US$1,976/t vs US$1,974/t previous

Tin US$31,825/t vs US$32,130/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$63.4/bbl vs US$65.2/bbl previous

• WTI crude oil prices fell below $60/bbl as the API estimated a higher than expected 3.8mb/d w/w build (+0.4mb/d exp) to US crude inventories, offset by draws of 3.1mb to gasoline and 2.5mb to distillate stocks.
• European energy prices continue to trade in line with crude oil equivalency prices (~$61/bbl), with France’s nuclear generation rising 1% w/w to 63% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €31.6/MWh vs €31.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $67.2/lb vs $67.1/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$99.8/t vs US$99.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.6/t vs US$465.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$183.0/t vs US$183.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$99.0/t vs US$99.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$56,233/t vs US$56,409/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,044/t vs US$9,067/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$785/t vs US$795/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$363/mtu vs US$363/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$286/t vs US$285/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,513/t vs US$1,513/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Battery News

Tesla Semi Nevada to produce first vehicles by end of 2025

• Tesla have said that its first electric trucks will be on the production line by the end of 2025
• According to the leader of Tesla’s Semi program, Dan Priestly, the factory has annual capacity of 50,000 units and the company is gearing up for high volume production over the next few quarters.
• Tesla’s plans to ship components from China for production of the Cybercab and the Semi in the US were suspended after Trump raised tariffs on China.
• Tesla was originally ready to absorb the additional costs when Trump imposed the 34% tariff on Chinese goods, but could not do so when the tariff went beyond that.

Company News

Adriatic Metals (ADT LN) 203p, Mkt Cap £695m – Q1 Results show production impacted by weather and TSF delays

• Bosnian polymetallic developer Adriatic reports production of 1.4mozAgEq over the quarter, vs 0.9mozAgEq in 4Q25.
• Company boosted throughput by 40% in 1Q25 vs 47kt in the December quarter.
• Ore mined down from 73.2kt in Q4 to 67.4kt, to manage ore stockpile capacity.
• Throughput lower on weather impacts and power outages in January and TSF start delay, losing 15kt and 20kt worth of throughput respectively.
• Company notes tailings filtration cycle time issues, which lost 20kt of milled tonnage. They note this is being ‘resolved with debottlenecking modifications in Q2 and additional filter plates in Q3.’
• Silver recoveries steady at 95% but zinc recoveries fell from 63% to 57%.
• Silver in concentrate of 596koz vs 333koz the prior quarter.
• Zinc in concentrate at 2.4kt from 2.2kt prior quarter.
• Further increase in April, with 35kt milled, 0.8moz AgEq produced and 315m of mine development completed.
• Sales at $34m.
• Company reports the Veovaca TSF construction completed in March and saw first tailings on 2^nd April.
• Debt repayment of $20m made to Orion in March, with 31^st March cash balance at $76m.
• Debt form Orion financing package at $142.5m.
• Company expects commercial production on track for 2Q25.

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 1.23p, Mkt cap £11m – 2024 results highlight progress at the Boland rare-earths project in South Australia

• Reporting annual results for 2024 showing an annual loss of £0.4m (2023 loss – £0.9m and a closing cash balance of ~£0.8m, Cobra Resources highlights progress at its Boland rare earths project in South Australia.
• The project hosts “ionically bound REEs enriched in dysprosium and terbium occur within permeable sands … [which the company describes as] … amenable to in situ recovery (“ISR”), a low-cost, low impact mining process with high environmental stewardship”.
• As part of its evaluation, the company has “Installed a five-hole screened wellfield to enable hydrological studies and support future permitting for ISR pilot trials anticipated to begin later this year” as well as completing bench scale testing which support “bottom quartile recovery costs and demonstrating exceptional permeability, a critical enabler of ISR and productivity”.
• The company also says that it has shown “province-scale potential through re-analysis of historical drillholes with REE mineralisation being defined within geological units of the Yaninee Palaeochannel that are coeval with Boland mineralisation, confirming the potential for multiple, province scale mineral systems”.
• Chairman, Greg Hancock, described the Boland project as offering Cobra Resources the “opportunity … to be the Western world’s first ISR rare earth mine that is cost competitive with China”.

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) 7.5p, Mkt Cap £11m – Sales of large diamonds from Letšeng delayed by tariff uncertainty

• Gem Diamonds reports the production of 23,578 carats of diamonds from its Letšeng mine in Lesotho during the three months to 31^st March 2025 (Q4 2024 – 24,461 carats).
• Sales of 20,470 carats at an average price of US$1,055/carat generated revenue of US$21.6m (Q4 2024 – 26,356 carats sold at an average US$1,223/carat produced revenue of US$32.2m).
• Two individual diamonds “sold for more than US$1.0 million each, generating aggregate revenue of US$3.5 million during the Period”.
• Production was largely derived from “the lower-grade, lower-value Main Pipe, with a lower contribution from the higher-grade, higher-value Satellite Pipe, in line with the 2025 mine plan”.
• The company also reports that since the end of March,“two greater than 100 carat Type I diamonds (194.52 carats and 109.95 carats) were recovered at Letšeng … [and that they] … will be sold in Q2 2025”.
• In 2024, the mine produced “13 diamonds greater than 100 carats” in size.
• Gem Diamonds confirms that the sale of large diamonds. Expected during the quarter “was held over because of US tariff uncertainty. These goods are scheduled to be sold in Q2”.
• We note that Lesotho attracted a ‘reciprocal tariff’ from the US of 50% – the highest rate levied on ‘Liberation Day’ earlier this month.

Conclusion: The Letšeng mine continues to deliver large, high-value diamonds although a planned sale of these stones, expected to take place during Q1 was deferred in response to tariff uncertainty.

Gemfields Group (GEM LN) 4.25p, Mkt Cap £50m – Jaipur emerald auction realises improved prices

• Gemfields reports that it has realised US$16.4m at auction in Jaipur from the sale of ~2.4m carats of emeralds from its 75%-owned mine in Zambia.
• The company says that “36 lots were offered for sale, of which 32 were sold (89%) … [at an average price of] … US$6.87/carat”.
• Managing Director, Adrian Banks, explained that the auction “marks a notable improvement on the disappointing commercial-quality auction held in September 2024. An increased number of bids and stronger prices across a broad quality-range point to improved sentiment and demand since our experience in Q3 2024”.
• He explained that the withdrawal of “very low-quality material, weighing 112,000 grams and representing 18.5% of the total weight offering … had delivered a positive improvement in overall pricing” compared to the US$4.47/carat realised at the September 2024 auction.

Glencore (GLEN LN) 253p, Mkt Cap £30bn – Production report shows disappointing copper production

• Glencore reports production results for 1Q25.
• Copper production missed expectations, and fell 30%yoy on lower mining rates, head grades and recoveries at Collahuasi, Antapaccay and KCC.
• Management expects copper production to rise in 2H25, supported by the completion of the Collahuasi pit reorientation, truck fleet expansion and increased water availability.
• Higher stripping at Antapaccay is expected to reduce through the year, whilst KCC throughput expected to rise in 2H25.
• Cobalt production rose 44%yoy on higher grades and volumes at Mutanda.
• Steelmaking coal rose to 8.3mt following the EVR acquisition.
• Energy coal production down 7%yoy on mine closures in Australia.
• Energy coal guidance revised slightly lower from 92-100mt to 87-95mt.
• On marketing, Glencore expects full year EBIT in the middle of their long term $2.2-3.2bn pa guidance range.
• The trading division expects some ‘physical trade flow re-orientation and dislocation’ to ‘manifest over the coming months, which may present opportunities.’;

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) 41p, Mkt cap £109m – Quarterly report highlights progress on Tannenberg Copper Project in Germany

• GreenX Metals quarterly report highlights:
  • Expansion of Tannenberg copper project license area in Germany.
  • The award of US$500,000 plus technical assistance as part of the BHP Xplor program.
  • Strategic potential of large-scale  critical minerals projects in Greenland.
• 2025 exploration at Tannenberg to include:

• Greenland:
• Eleonore North Project (Antimony):
  • Antimony mineralisation identified along ~4km in veins and structures which appears to align gold veining at surface along 15km of potential strike.
  • Previous results include:
    • 14m long chip sample grading 7.2% Sb and 0.53g/t Au3
    • 40 m chip line with a length weighed average of 0.78g/t Au3
  • Antimony prices have risen to US$60,000/t from ~US$5,000 with China restricting antimony exports.
  • Antimony is a Critical Mineral in the US and EU.
• Arctic Rift Copper Project
  • Management are looking at remote-sensing options to better understand the extent of the copper mineralisation ahead of further exploration.
• Financials:
  • Net cash used A$694,000
  • Outgoings A$887,000
  • Cash and cash eq. A$3.9m.
  • Unused finance facilities A$2.1m
  • Total available funding A$6.1m

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) 36p, Mkt Cap £46m – Positive geological assessment of the Tempiute tungsten project, Nevada

Power Metals Resources* (POW LN) 13p, Mkt cap £15m – (Power Metals* holds a 19.5% stake in Guardian Metal Resources)

• Guardian Metal Resources reports that a site visit by its independent geological advisor to the Tempiute tungsten project in Nevada, which it acquired in January, has identified skarn-hosted tungsten mineralisation as well as evidence of copper/molybdenum mineralisation in a porphyry intrusion.
• Dr. Lawrence Carter’s inspection of the site which is located “less than 250 miles (402 km) southeast of the Company’s Pilot Mountain tungsten project” has confirmed the presence of “outcropping tungsten-rich skarn mineralisation” which was mined historically – most recently by Union Carbide in the decade up until 1987.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that “Multiple new zones of tungsten-rich skarn mineralisation (garnet rich) were identified at the margins of the north quartz monzonite stock, which appear to have been little-explored” prompting the company to stake an additional “29 new Bureau of Land Management (“BLM”) Lode Mining Claims at Tempiute to cover these new target areas, significantly increasing the mineralised footprint of the Project by more than double”.
• The company also staked a further two claims covering tungsten skarns in “a newly identified satellite zone to Tempiute to be named the Worthington system, generated by the Company’s regional exploration campaign”.
• As well as the tungsten mineralisation, “Multiple zones of porphyry-style stockwork veining … [have been identified] … in altered quartz monzonite are outcropping within the southern quartz monzonite stock”.
• These zones include “hypogene molybdenite mineralisation as well as secondary copper mineralisation (copper oxide and chalcocite). Seemingly overlooked by previous work, the Company has now completed claim staking to cover areas prospective for larger-scale porphyry-style mineralisation”.

Conclusion: Guardian Metal Resources has confirmed the tungsten potential of its new Nevada tungsten project and identified and staked new mineralised zones.  With the US Government moving to secure indigenous sources of tungsten as a strategic commodity we await news of exploration progress with interest.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metals

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) 3.2p, Mkt cap £97m – Trial processing of high-grade copper ore at the Roan concentrator, Zambia

• Jubilee Metals reports that it expects to complete a campaign of trial processing of high-grade copper ores at its Roan Concentrator within the next two weeks.
• The results “will be used to select material for a targeted long-term supply agreement … which is critical to the selection of the optimal mix of high-grade copper material”.
• The company says that “the initial results have confirmed the potential for Roan to maintain a significant increase in copper production rate on the high-grade copper material which supports the decision to migrate Roan onto this high-grade material from initially dedicating the capacity to the processing of copper tailings”.
• During the trials, feeding a variety of “different materials required circuit adjustments to Roan to optimally process each material”.
• “The final results from the trials have consequently been slightly delayed. There remain two further material compositions that will be trialled over the coming two weeks to complete the selection of the source material for a targeted long-term supply agreement”.
• Jubilee Metals also confirms that the ramp-up of its Munkoyo open-pit mine “remains on target to achieve 8,500tpm of high-grade ROM exceeding 2% copper (equating to 170tpm) with a further 75,000tpm of lower grade ROM stockpiled at the operations”.

Conclusion: Trial processing of potential feed sources to the Roan copper concentrator in Zambia is coming to an end with the results expected to aid a decision on a long-term supplier.

Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) 2.8p, Mkt Cap £148m – 1Q25 operations update

BUY – TP 4.4p

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• The Company released 1Q25 operations update recapping major developments at the Kola Potash Project, Republic of Congo, during the period.
• Highlights include the release of an optimised DFS in February after signing the EPC contract with PowerChina in November 2024 and a ~US$10.6m equity raise at 1.7p ($0.5m subject to shareholder approval in June) in March.
• Post reporting period, the Company announced it received non binding draft funding proposal from the Summit Consortium.
• The Company has not disclosed details of the proposal with terms to be revealed once the term sheets have been finalised, agreed and executed.
• The team has until 31 May 2025 to consider, negotiate if necessary and settle on the terms.
• Trading in stock was temporarily suspended on the ASX and JSE pending details on non binding term sheets that are expected no later than 1 May.
• Quarterly CFs showed the Company spent $1.0m in 1Q25.
• Closing cash balance stood at $10.2m with no bank debt and only amounts outstanding are to PowerChina for previously completed engineering works.

Conclusion: The update includes little in the way of new information and highlights main developments during the period including Kola optimised DFS release and a $10.6m equity raise. The Company is well funded to progress its discussions with Summit regarding project funding terms as well as necessary preparatory works to trigger Full Notice to Proceed (FNTP) under the PowerChina EPC contract.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Kore Potash

Perseus Mining (PRU AU) A$3.4, Mkt Cap A$4.54m – Steady cashflows from West African operations as Nyanzaga greenlit

• African gold producer Perseus reports March 2025 quarterly results.
• The Company produced 122koz over the period, at an AISC of $1,209/oz and average sales price of $2,462/oz.
• Yaoure contributed 70koz ($981/oz AISC) over the period, Edikan with 43koz ($1,177/oz AISC) and Sissingue with 10.6koz ($1,209/oz AISC).
• Group AISC increased from $1,127/oz in the December quarter. FY25 AISC guidance of $1,250-1,280/oz.
• Company’s cash and bullion position increased to US$801m vs US$704m in December.
• Perseus holds no debt and US$300m of undrawn debt capacity.
• The Company approved the FID on the development of the CMA underground operation at Yaoure, and the development of Nyanzaga in Tanzania.
• Perseus has completed 33% of its A$100m buyback.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 5.0p, Mkt Cap £109m – Phase 2 drilling is >60% complete with assays increasing confidence in the Barroso grade and tonnage

BUY – 18.1p

• The Company released the second batch of assays from its ongoing Phase 2 drilling programme at the Barroso Lithium Project in Portugal.
• 75 holes have been drilled for ~8,300m to date (>60% of planned amount) with assays from 42 holes received so far.
• New significant assays received from a further 22 holes at Pinheiro (5), Reservatorio (12) and Grandao (5).
• Pinheiro selected intersections include:
  • 20.76m @ 1.48% Li2O from 44.62m in hole 25PNRDD011, including 9m @ 1.87% Li2O
  • 31.04m @ 1.46% Li2O from 65.96m in hole 25PNRDD013, including 14m @ 1.73% Li2O and 12m @ 1.39% Li2O
• Reservatorio selected intersections are:
  • 27m @ 1.25% Li2O from 100m in hole 25RESRC050, including 2m @ 2.02% Li2O, 8.9m @ 1.33% Li2O and 10m @ 1.4% Li2O
  • 22m @ 1.56% Li2O from 25m in hole 25RESRC064, including 9m @ 2.00% Li2O, 3m @ 1.68% Li2O and 2m @ 1.42% Li2O
  • 22m @ 1.51% Li2O from 64m in hole 25RESRC058, including 10m @ 2.00% Li2O and 6m @ 2.89% Li2O
  • 22m @ 1.35% Li2O from 65m in hole 25RESRC060, including 6m @ 1.68% Li2O and 3m @ 1.72% Li2O
• Grandao intersections are:
  • 13m @ 1.14% Li2O from 3m in hole 25GRARC140, including 4m @ 1.62% Li2O
• Higher grade zones encountered at Pinheiro that is expected to be mined earlier in the LOM is particularly encouraging.
• Spodumene mineralisation remains to be closed off down dip and along strike at Barroso offering further MRE expansion potential.
• Phase 2 drilling includes 13,000m in 117 holes mostly focusing on infill, geotechnical and metallurgical drilling to complete the DFS and release maiden reserves.

Conclusion: Phase 2 drilling is nearing completion with latest assays from Pinheiro, Reservatorio and Grandao (cumulatively accounting for ~85% of current MRE) adding to confidence in the grades and tonnage at Barroso ahead of the DFS and maiden reserves completion due later this year.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) 147.5p, Mkt Cap £108m – Chairman targets >100,000oz pa gold production post-2026

• Serabi Gold reports an after-tax profit of US$27.8m for 2024 (2023 – US$6.6m) and a closing cash balance of US$22.1m.
• The financial result is driven by a 13% increase in the production from the Brazilian operations of 37,250oz of gold at a cash cost of US$1,326/oz and an all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1.700/oz (2023 – 33.153oz at a cash cost of US$1,300/oz and AISC of US$1,635/oz).
• Serabi Gold has announced “a new shareholder return policy, where Serabi will target a return of up to 20% – 30% of the Group’s free cash flow to shareholders through dividends or buy-backs” although it confirms that it does “not intend to pay a dividend in respect of our 2024 results”.
• Commenting that confirmation of the “Installation License (“LI”) at Coringa … awaits final acceptance of the indigenous impact study” Chairman, Michael Lynch-Bell acknowledged the progress ramping up Coringa where “Our operations team were able to install and commission the crusher and ore sorter … within a span of 10 months”.
• The Chairman confirmed that “Our stand-alone strategy envisions growing the Palito Complex and Coringa into a consolidated +100,000 oz per annum producer” and he clarified that Serabi Gold remains “amenable to inorganic growth opportunities, continuing to utilise a disciplined approach to M&A”.
• Serabi Gold’s 2025 production guidance is in the range 44-47,000oz with 2026 output expected to reach 60,000oz and “to be a +100,000 ounces producer thereafter through its 2025 and 2026 brownfield exploration programme”.
• He also outlined the impact of “Interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainty in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, the US Presidential Election, increased global central bank demand for gold, and market volatility all contributed to a higher-than-expected realised gold price at Serabi”.

Conclusion: After a 13% increase in 2024 gold production to over 37,000oz of gold, the Chairman restates the ambition to grow output from Palito and Coringa to over 100,000ozpa.

*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 31.8p, Mkt Cap £216m – Strong cash position to take the Kasiya rutile and graphite project through the Q4 DFS and beyond

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)

• Sovereign Metals continue to make solid progress towards a DFS in Q4 and a development decision thereafter.
• The group is working with Rio Tinto who currently hold 18.5% of the stock and are providing substantial technical assistance on mining, processing, ESG and other matters.
• Management recently published an updated and optimised PFS on the Kasiya project with oversight from the Sovereign-Rio Tinto Technical Committee.
• Optimised PFS confirms low-cost potential of the Kasiya project alongside:
  • reduced operational risk
  • operational flexibility,
  • positive environmental and social benefits to the local community and to the nation of Malawi,
  • rapid rehabilitation of mined land shown in pilot mining,
  • potential to replant on mined land for the next growing season,
  • rutile quality,
  • graphite by-product suitable for >94% of demand (~1.6mtpa) including battery anodes, refractories and expanded/expandables,
  • production of a 96% graphite concentrate at an incremental cost of US$241/t (FOB)
• Forthcoming news
  • MRE: We expect to see an upgrade to the MRE ‘Mineral Resource Estimate’
  • Offtake: Discussions on Kasiya project rutile and graphite are likely to be interesting
  • ESG: News from ongoing community and social development programs in Malawi.
  • DFS due in Q4
• Financial highlights quarter to end-March 2025:
  • Exploration & evaluation A$7m and A$22m YTD
  • Staff cost: A$0.3m and A$1m YTD
  • Administration and corporate costs A$0.3m and A$1.3m YTD
  • Interest received A$0.3m and A$1.3m
  • Other business development costs A$0.35m and A$1.2m YTD
  • Net cash spent A$7.7m and A$23.9m YTD
  • Cash and cash eq. A$25.8m at end March
  • Unused finance facility A$40m
  • Total available funding A$66m

• Prices:
  • Rutile prices have risen 10% ove the past three months to CNY8,000-8,300/t (US$1,121/t) for 95% min rutile concentrate CIF China
  • Graphite: Spherical graphite prices have fallen 9% to US$9,850/t since 5h November.
    • We suspect Rio Tinto will look to upgrade the Kasiya graphite to enhance value and gain from this highly-value-added market

Conclusion: Sovereign are fully funded to take the group through and beyond the Kasiya DFS which remains on track for completion in Q4.

Rio Tinto have 180 days post the DFS in which to take a decision to become the Kasiya project operator.

While it would be lovely to think that Rio Tinto will share the upside on the Kasiya project with us mortal investors, we suspect Rio will prefer to enjoy the full benefits of the Kasiya project development and cash flows within the Rio Tinto balance sheet.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. An SP Angel analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site. We highly recommend the Malawi coffee beans sold in Lilongwe airport

Sylvania Platinum (SLP LN) 47.5p, Mkt Cap £125m – Guidance increased as first chrome from Thaba JV looms

• PGM and chrome producer Sylvania reports production and financial results for the financial year’s third quarter 2025.
• The Company produced 20.5koz 4E PGM ounces over the quarter, up 1%qoq from the Sylvania Dump Operations.
• This generated $26.3m in net revenue, and $6.5m in EBITDA.
• EBITDA fell on increased indirect costs on the commencement of the rehabilitation guarantee cost form the Thaba JV, alongside higher mineral royalty tax expenses.
• Gross basket price for 4E PGMs up 3% in USD and 6% in ZAR terms, boosting revenues.
• Cash balance fell to $71.2m from $77.5m in December.
• Company expects first chrome production in May 2025 and PGM production in June from the Thaba JV.
• Sylvania previously declared an interim dividend of 0.75p/share.
• Sylvania increases guidance to 78-80koz 4E from previous guidance of 75-78koz.
• Company sees the PGM filtration plant at Lesedi on budget and schedule for FY2Q26.

Tolu Minerals (TOK AU) A$0.84, Mkt Cap A$102m – A$27m equity raise to fund gold production and exploration in PNG

• Papa New Guinea gold company Tolu has raised A$27.3m in a private placement.
• The placing was completed at a 7.5% discount to Tolu’s 5 day VWAP.
• Tolu will use the funds for an ’extensive’ surface exploration programme alongside redevelopment/construction of the Tolukuma Gold Mine
• Earlier this year Tolu reported first gold produced through the commissioning process at their Tolukuma modular gravity plant.
• The Company reports success with the geotube tailings decant system, and how commissioning with ROM ore underway.
• Tolu expects commissioning to be completed during April, before final certification of the APT
• Tolu expects initial capacity of 6tph, 25% of the existing plant, producing 1,600ozpm Au by the end of the year.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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