SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 28th May 2025

Copper pushes higher as Glencore feeds tight Chinese market with Russian metal

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Altona Rare Earths (REE LN) – Metallurgical test results prompt a possible upgrade of project scope for the Monte Muambe fluorspar project, Mozambique

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY – 308p (from 296p) – Earnings update

Cora Gold (CORA LN) – Processing flowsheet optimisation at Sanankoro

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) – Kamoa-Kakula copper mine dewatering as seismic activity continues to impact underground operations

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) – Processing trials verify the ability to treat complex transitional copper mineralisation

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – Institutional interest in the latest equity raise

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Progressing Pepas with drilling, met-test work and preliminary economic assessment

Predictive Discovery* (PDI AU) – Guinea junta revokes Argo and Bokoro licences in wider crackdown

Thor Explorations (THX LN) – Quarterly report reports record income and outlines exploration progress

Copper ($9,640/t) pushes higher as Glencore feeds tight Chinese market with Russian metal

• Copper has climbed to early April highs, having rebounded over $1,000/t since the Liberation Day sell-off.
• Funds are now seen rebuilding bullish positions as Trump eases on tariffs and global growth concerns abate.
• The move follows an exodus of short-term speculative trade flow, where total contract participation in CME futures slid from 134k contracts to 82k contracts in May.
• Seismic activity at Kamoa- Kakula has caused Ivanhoe to remove production guidance. The situation will exacerbate the shortage of copper concentrates in China.
• Disruption at Kamoa- Kakula might take 40-50,000t out of the market representing around one month of production leading the market into a deficit situation.
• We note Glencore has reportedly been buying Russian copper on the LME with plans to deliver it into a tightening Chinese market.
• Newly produced Russian metal is sanctioned, but older metal is tradeable. This metal is said to be of lower quality..
• China has seen tightening copper supplies as traders move metal into the US ahead of Trump’s Section 232 investigation, likely seeing tariffs imposed upon completion.
• Chinese copper premiums have climbed to near five year highs on the SHFE, with pushing the futures curve steep into backwardation, suggesting tight markets.
• Chinese copper inventories saw sharp drawdowns in April as manufacturers ‘bought the dip.’

Gold ($3,321/oz) holds higher ground on weak dollar whilst miners shun hedging

• Gold prices have resumed their march higher, bouncing back over $3,300/oz but below the levels triggered on Friday following Trump’s threats to the EU.
• Gold shrugged off a rebound in US consumer confidence, which bounced from a five year low in May.
• Thawing tensions between the EU and US have reduced haven demand, although gold is likely seeing continued dip buying from Chinese investors.
• Focus shifting to next key US data points, with US PCE due Friday and set to guide on potential for further rate cuts.
• Meanwhile, World Gold Council reports net producer hedging stood at 5t in 1Q25, following a 19t reduction in the global gold miner combined hedge book in 4Q24.
• Hedges globally have been reduced from 3,000t in the early 2000s to 180t today.
• Miners have been cutting back on hedges to maximise cash flow to shareholders.
• The WGC expects limited gold hedging activity going forward, as management teams embrace the higher gold price environment.

Copper – We’ve Never Seen This Before in the World: Video: 

Podcast: https://audioboom.com/channels/4099560-the-sharepickers-podcast-with-justin-waite

Economics

US – Stocks jumped on Tuesday (S&P +2.1%, Nasdaq +2.5%) post Memorial Day celebrations on upbeat consumer confidence data and EU tariff delay.

• Futures are trading slightly lower this morning ahead of NVIDA earnings results due later today.
• Core PCE the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, are due this Friday with estimates for a 2.5%yoy reading in April, down from 2.6% in March.

Consumer sentiment rebounded sharply in May from one of the worst readings in years.

• This marks the biggest monthly increase in four years with an improvement broadly shared across age and income groups.
• The pickup was driven by a more upbeat outlook for the economy and labour market.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (May/Apr/Est): 98.0/85.7(revised from 86.0)/87.1

Japan – The weakest demand for 40y bond debt in nearly a year as investors grow concerned over rising inflation and rising government spending.

• 40y yield climbed 5bp post the sale to 3.3% while 30y debt yield was up 7bp.
• Both yields reached the highest level on record after the lowest demand since 2012 at an auction of 20y bonds.

Germany – Jobless rate held at its highest in nearly five years as the economy struggles amid high energy costs and waning overseas demand hurt by a slowdown in China and US tariffs.

• Unemployment rate was at 6.3% with jobless claims hitting 34.0k in May, up from 6.0k in April and 12.0k forecast.

The administration is expected to approve a bill cancelling its fast track path to citizenship programme.

• Currently well integrated migrants can naturalise after three years in the country.
• Three years are applicable to people who achieved fluency in German and can show outstanding educational and professional accomplishments.
• Otherwise, people can apply for German citizenship after five years.

Ukraine/Russia – President Trump warned Vladimir Putin he is “playing with fire” after Russia launched one of its strongest drone and missile attacks on Ukraine since its invasion in 2022.

• “What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realise is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD,” Trump added.
• Trump administration is growing increasingly frustrated with Russia’s unwillingness to agree to a ceasefire and show meaningful progress in a broader peace deal.

UK – IMF raises GDP growth forecast

• Yet again the IMF is raising its expectations for UK economic growth
• The organisation, which is better known for its economic downgrades now forecasts growth of 1.2% this year, rising to 1.4% in 2026.
• The IMF had downgraded UK growth just over a month ago from 1.6% in 2025 to 1.1%.
• Growth in most of the world’s major economies has been hit by Trump Tariff announcements though the UK is now better placed than most to benefit from its new trade deal with the US.
• Fortunately, the UK has now trade agreements with EU and India in addition to the newly agreed US trade deal.
• The IMF have focussed on the impact of higher inflation on UK borrowing costs
• The organisation had expected UK inflation to slow to 2.2% by 2026 but with inflation in April rising to 3.5%, from 2.6% in March any reduction in borrowing costs looks some way away.

Ukraine – Europe lifts restrictions on the firing of long-range missiles

• While there is some disagreement on when this permission was given, the ability for Ukraine to strike military instillations further inside Russia could make substantial impact.
• The missiles will hopefully reduce the numbers of drones and missiles being fired from Russia into Ukraine.

Currencies

US$1.133eur vs US$1.135/eur previous, Yen 144.15/$ vs 143.53/$, SAr 17.946/$ vs 17.917/$, US$1.350/gbp vs US$1.354/gbp, US$0.644/aud vs US$0.645/aud,

CNY 7.191/$ vs 7.189/$, Dollar Index 99.63 vs 99.31.

Precious Metals

Gold US$3,320/oz vs US$3,308/oz previous

Gold ETFs 88.7moz vs 88.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,097/oz vs US$1,079/oz previous

Palladium US$990/oz vs US$988/oz previous

Silver US$33.5/oz vs US$33.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,425/oz vs US$5,500/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,628/t vs US$9,600/t previous

Aluminium US$2,495/t vs US$2,456/t previous

Nickel US$15,125/t vs US$15,488/t previous

Zinc US$2,701/t vs US$2,702/t previous

Lead US$1,984/t vs US$1,986/t previous

Tin US$32,478/t vs US$32,709/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$64.0/bbl vs US$63.9/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable following the Memorial Day weekend in the US, which traditionally marks the start of the US peak driving season that ends on Labour Day in September.
• European energy prices climbed higher on extended Troll field outages as France’s nuclear generation fell 7% w/w to 56% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity as maintenance (Visite Complète) season commences.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 10 to 566 units last week (-34 or 6% y/y), with oil rigs down 8 to 465 units (-32 y/y) and gas rigs down 2 to 98 units (-1 y/y), mainly from the Permian (-3 w/w) and Eagle Ford (-4).
• Media reports that Eni has signed an exclusivity agreement with Blackrock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) talks to potentially sell 49.99% in its carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) business, as part of the Company’s satellite model strategy that aims to attract strategically aligned capital from new partners.

Henry Hub Gas US$3.41/mmBtu vs US$3.29/mmBtu last Friday

Natural Gas €37.0/MWh vs €36.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.6/lb vs $71.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.1/t vs US$100.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.5/t vs US$469.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$189.5/t vs US$190.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$103.0/t vs US$102.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,251/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$60,086/t vs US$60,207/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,601/t vs US$8,768/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$655/t vs US$685/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$1,113/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$397/mtu vs US$388/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$425/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.4/kg vs US$24.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$287/t vs US$287/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,465/t vs US$1,513/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Battery News

China’s auto-market set for renewed price war

• China’s ongoing price war is expected to intensify and could lead to a collapse in the industry according to an industry executive.
• BYD offered further discounts across more than a dozen of its models, seeing its most affordable EV, the Seagull reduced to $7,765 from around $10,000.
• The chairman of Great Wall Motors, one of BYD’s close rivals, warned that the Chinese auto sector was in an unhealthy state and that pricing pressure was hammering the bottom line of car companies and suppliers.
• He also likened the current situation to that of property developer Evergrande that was liquidated last year.
• Reuters also reported that Chinese commerce regulators are examining a growing phenomenon that has also strained the industry, the sale of “used cars” that are essentially new cars with zero miles.
• Of the 169 automakers operating in China today, more than half have less than 0.1% market share, according to data from research firm Jato Dynamics.
• Many of these will likely be priced out of production if the price trends continue, leaving only the big players able to absorb the lower prices.

Brazilian prosecutors suing BYD and contractors over ‘slave-like’ conditions

• Brazilian prosecutors are suing Chinese EV giant BYD and two of its contractors, accusing the companies of human trafficking and conditions “analogous to slavery” at a factory construction site in the country.
• The Public Labour Prosecutor’s Office (MPT) in the state of Bahia says 220 Chinese workers were rescued after it began an investigation in response to an anonymous complaint.
• BYD has yet to respond to the claims, but has previously said it has “zero tolerance for violations of human rights and labour laws.”

Company News

Altona Rare Earths – (REE LN) 1.8p, mkt cap £2.5m – Metallurgical test results prompt a possible upgrade of project scope for the Monte Muambe fluorspar project, Mozambique

• Altona Mining reports metallurgical test results from ore samples of fluorspar mineralisation at its Monte Muambe rare earths bearing carbonatite project in northwest Mozambique.
• Initial tests show low levels of impurities recovered to a 93.62% fluorite flotation concentrate indicating that “the fluorspar at Monte Muambe is more suitable for the development of acid-spar which is used in the production of hydrofluoric acid … [which the company describes as] … a higher value product than the met-spar (used primarily as a flux in the steel industry) previously envisaged”.
• Testing will continue “aimed at generating a flowsheet for an acid-spar production plant as well as product samples for evaluation by potential off-takers”.
• Altona indicates that, in the light of these results it is updating the potential scope of its project from the previously envisaged “15,000 to 20,000 tonne per annum met-spar operation … [to ] … a 50,000 tonne per annum acid-spar operation over a mine life exceeding 12 years”.
• The company also reports that follow-up exploration of previously reported gallium geochemical anomalies has “resulted in the discovery of previously undocumented fluorspar outcrops. These zones are currently undergoing evaluation to determine their extent”.

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 135p, £154m – Earnings update

BUY – 308p (from 296p)

CLICK FOR PDF

• The Company released FY24 earnings last week. We reiterate our comment and update our earnings estimates.
• Revenues US$40m (Fy23: $46m) as higher gold/copper prices partly compensated for weaker production.
• Production was 16.8koz GE (FY23: 31.8koz) affected by a temporary suspension of both agitation leaching and flotation circuits that restarted in 2H24.
• Bullion sales (post PSA) totalled 15.3koz at an average realised price of $2,432/oz (FY23: 15.8koz at $1,951/oz).
• Concentrate sales (post PSA) generated $3m in sales from 1.5kt of copper/precious metals concentrate (FY23: $15m and 11.2kt).
• The Company is currently 100% exposed to gold/copper prices having delivered last 1.6koz into the 4.6koz hedging programme that ran in 2023-24; hedged gold sales generate only $30k in losses in 2024 with forward price close to market spot prices at the time.
• No AISC reported during the period with most of operations suspended through nine months of 2024 and, thus, not reflective of normal course of operations.
• EBITDA amounted to -$5m (FY23: -$1m).
• EBIT at -$19m (FY23: -$25m).
• PAT and EPS at -$18m and -15USc (FY23: -$24m and -21USc)
• FCF at -$2m (FY23: -$24m).
• Capex included PPE related spend of $9m (mostly Gilar mine development and Gedabek first phase tailings dam wall raise) and exploration related costs of $2m ($0.7m at Gedabek, $0.5m at Ordubad and $0.4m at Garadag), down on previous year (FY23: $18m and $6m, respectively) as the team aimed to reduce cash spend with most operations suspended.
• Net Debt climbed to $17m (FY23: $13m) including $7m in cash (incl $6m in restricted cash used as a security for a loan) and $24m in outstanding debt (incl leases).
• As of Mar/25, net debt stood at $14m ex leases (FY24: $15m ex leases).
• Debt includes $7.8m with International Bank of Azerbaijan repayable between May/25 and May/26, $5.0m payable in May/26, $5m owed to Trafigura under the $5-10m 3m revolving facility and $2.8m owed under Caterpillar vendor financing.
• The Company is in discussions for a further $7m loan to fund Demirli refurbishment and a $25m revolving prepayment facility with Trafigura (SOFR+4pp) for its copper from Demirli.
• On dividends, the Company is not paying a final dividend given negative FCF recorded in FY24 with the Board intending to resume dividend payments “once conditions allow”.
• Operationally, agitation leaching and flotation circuits resumed operations in 2H24.
• The first phase of the Gedabek tailings dam wall raise (2.5m) was completed November 2024.
• The second phase that would take the dam to its maximum height is on schedule to be completed in 2H25.
• The Company launched production at the Gilar Gold/Copper underground mine in May helping the production profile at Gedabek as the team is looking to grow Group copper production by resuming operations at the Demirli brownfield mine and developing Xarxar and Garadag greenfield projects.
• At Demirli, the Company secured access to the site with preparatory to restart operations ongoing and first output targeted for 2H25.
• At Xarxar, maiden MRE released February 2024 estimating 25mt at 0.48% Cu in total resource (~90% in the M&I category).
• At Garadag, maiden MRE released September 2024 estimating 285mt at 0.31% Cu in total resource (30% in the M&I category).
• The Company plans to launch production at both projects by 2028.
• FY25 guidance is reiterated at 28.0-33.0koz gold and 6.5-6.8kt copper (ex Demirli).
• The team is planning to release an updated FY25 guidance later in the year once operations at Demirli restart.

Conclusion: FY24 results reflect weak production with agitation leaching and flotation circuits restarting in 2H24. Earnings came below our estimates (FY24e FCF $EBITDA $4m, PAT -$2m) but largely in line on FCF basis (FY24e $2m) as higher costs and non cash charges were compensated by changes in working capital. The team has done well in managing cash during the period of mostly suspended production reducing capex to a minimum required to progress with Gilar development and restart of Gedabek operations. Net debt levels at $17m, up ~$4m on a year, are seen low and well managed in the light of guided $45-55m EBITDA for FY25 (at $2,800/oz and $9,000/t). With challenging period of 2023-24 behind, we believe the Company is well positioned to benefit from high commodity prices and growth in production profile with start of operations just announced at another greenfield discovery (Gilar) and preparatory works to restart flotation copper plant progressing at Demirli (Co targets 2H25 commissioning).

We reiterate our BUY recommendation and update our target price to 308p (from 296p) adjusting for new commodity price assumptions mostly relating to gold prices that saw a strong run lately. We highlight strong production growth profile, good team with a proven track record of discovering and commissioning new mines and attractive commodity exposure to gold/copper (no hedge in place).

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Anglo Asian Mining

Cora Gold (CORA LN) 8.0p, Mkt Cap £39m – Processing flowsheet optimisation at Sanankoro

• The Company reports on recent metallurgical testwork done at the Sanankoro Gold Project, Mali.
• The programme looked at optimising the size of the mill leading to potentially lower operating costs.
• The results confirmed that an integration of a drum scrubbing unit allows to recover fine material ahead of milling and would reduce the size of the required ball mill and cut power costs.
• Fine material (<1mm) responds well to scrubbing that is effective in liberating gold from the softer, clay-bound ore at Sanankoro.
• The programme is part of a wider optimisation exercise that the Company will include in the updated DFS and Mineral Reserves that are due 3Q25.

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) C$11.29, Mkt cap C$15bn – Kamoa-Kakula copper mine dewatering as seismic activity continues to impact underground operations

• There is some disagreement as to the reasons for seismic activity at the Kakula copper complex in the DRC which produced ~437,000t of copper in concentrate last year.
• A statement by Zijin Mining refers to multiple roof-falls and rib-spalling in the eastern section of the mine.
• Ivanhoe Mines disputes this and says some seismic activity resulted in the scaling of sidewalls of certain mining areas.
• Preliminary assessments suggest the seismic activity may continue for several weeks delaying the restart of underground operations.
• Unfortunately, the seismic activity has disrupted pumping in the mine leading to rising water levels.
• Surface operations are said to be unaffected by the seismic activity
• Ivanhoe has operational teams focussing on repairing damage caused to cables and pipework for the underground pumps.
• Dewatering is running at ~1,000ltrs per second but needs to rise to 3,000ltrs/sec to stabilise conditions,
• The mine is also planning on installing surface-based pumping for future events.
• Ivanhoe thanks its Chinese partners Zijin and CITIC Metal for their assistance in procuring additional equipment for the dewatering..
• The complex is run as a jv between Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%) and Zijin Mining (39.6%) and the DRC (20%).
• Production: The mine was targeting 520,000-580,000t of copper this year to make it the world’s second or third copper mine. Collahuasi produced 558,611t of copper last year.
• Costs: Kamoa-Kakula was targeting C1 Cash costs of $1.65-1.85/lb this year vs $1.65/lb ($3,637/t) in 2024.

Conclusion: Seismic activity is managed in the deep-level South African gold mines where ‘bumps’ often result in the collapse of unmanaged areas.

It will be important to understand the cause of the seismic events to formulate the appropriate mining system to ensure safety and reduce stoppages.

As a general rule extreme rock stress tends to build up in non-working faces whereas more active working faces tend to see less stress due to mining.

We suspect it will take weeks if not months to restore the mine to full operation.

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) 4.15p, Mkt cap £132m – Processing trials verify the ability to treat complex transitional copper mineralisation

• Jubilee Metals has described the progress of its copper processing operations in Zambia following processing trials at its Roan concentrator which confirm the company’s “technical capabilities to process successfully high-grade shallow transitional copper reefs, previously deemed as waste or too complex by many operators”.
• The trials have verified that recovery rates of around 65% are achievable from material grading at least 1.4% copper and provided “further confidence in Jubilee’s Large Waste Project (estimated 260 million tonnes at surface) which contains vast quantities of similar transitional ‘waste’ copper ore”.
• Confirmation of the viability of the technology has prompted Jubilee Metals to enter “a long-term feedstock supply agreement at Roan with production commencing this week”.
• Jubilee Metals says that the “trials confirm Roan’s capability to maintain a ROM feedstock run rate of between 35 000 to 40 000 tonnes per month (tpm) on the transitional reefs equating to 240 (at 35,000tpm throughput and min Cu grade) to 360tpm of Cu units (at 40,000tpm and targeted Cu grade)”.
• As well as progress at the Roan concentrator, Jubilee Metals reports that its Munkoyo mining operation mining at a rate of ~80,000tpm is being sustained and that the operation is delivering 3,500tpm of high-grade feed at grades of >2.5% copper “is delivered to the Company’s nearby Sable Refinery” with plans to increase this to 4,500tpm.
• The remaining “lower grade material (0.7% Cu) is stockpiled at surface for future processing at site … [with] … extended large pilot trials … currently be completed for the implementation of two 30 000tpm modular processing units”.
• Resource drilling at Munkoyo is currently underway in a six-week programme “to upgrade the resource confidence and complete the optimal open-pit mine layout”.
• Jubilee Metals summarises its plans to build production from the Roan concentrator and the high-grade output from Munkoyo “to produce 288tpm of Cu units for June 2025 stepping up to a production rate of 400tpm of Cu units from August 2025 with the potential of reaching 500 to 550tpm of Cu units from October 2025”.
• The company is also continuing “to expand its near surface mining portfolio with the execution of two further agreements offering Jubilee the exclusive right to perform its due diligence on these properties with the option to purchase the rights pending the outcome of the due diligence”.
• CEO, Leon Coetzer, explained that “trials over the past 8 weeks have affirmed Roan’s unique capabilities to process transitional copper reefs which are available in vast quantities both at surface and in near surface mining operations”.
• He said that “We are excited to have commenced production under the new supply agreements and will provide more clear guidance as soon as we have sufficient operational data under the supply agreement in the coming weeks”.

Conclusion: Trial processing of potential feed sources to the Roan copper concentrator in Zambia has verified the capacity to process complex transitional copper mineralisation which, in combination with sustained output from the Munkoyo open-pit, is expected to deliver a rising copper production profile through 2025.

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.58p, Mkt Cap £54m – Institutional interest in the latest equity raise

• The Company highlights strong institutional interest in the latest equity placing.
• Investor who participated in the placing include Konwave Gold Equity Fund, Phoenix Gold Fund, Premier Miton, RAB Capital and Ruffer Gold Fund.
• The team raised £7.6m at 0.55p in new equity last week to progress the Tulu Kapi Gold Project.
• The Company reports that the raise was driven by audit sign off requirements to cover working capital needs as well as paying for funding related fees to lenders and contractors.

Conclusion: Increasing interest from institutional investors is a welcome news with the latest fundraise to cover working capital needs to finalise funding related documentation.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 9p, Mkt Cap £29m – Progressing Pepas with drilling, met-test work and preliminary economic assessment

• Orosur report additional drill results from their Pepas project in Colombia.
• Highlights from three holes at Pepas include:

• • PEP033 – 21.3m @ 5.88 g/t Au from surface
  • PEP034 – 59m @ 10.15 g/t Au from 36m
  • PEP035 – 11.4m @ 2.71 g/t Au from surface

• Orosur is now conducting preliminary economic assessment of Pepas, with geological modelling, hiring external consultants to model the Pepas mineralisation.
• Orosur does not intend to publish an MRE at this stage or formal feasibility studies but will explore various preliminary technical studies.
• Orosur has conducted metallurgical testwork on Pepas drill core, which showed 88% recoveries from simple cyanide leaching at 120 micron grind.

Pepas North

• Additionally, the Company reports two holes from Pepas North, returning:

• • PEP036B: 40.5m at 0.62g/t Au from surface (inc. 14m at 1.2g/t Au)
  • PEP037: 3m at 0.65g/t Au from surface and 14m at 0.32g/t Au from 97m

• The Pepas North holes were drilled as a scissor pair underneath a geochemical anomalism.
• They intersected mineralisation with distinct similarities to the lower grade halo zones around Pepas to the south.
• As a result, Orosur suggests these holes ‘may be marginal to a more mineralised system,’ with suggestions that the holes were drilled sub-parallel to the controlling strike.
• The Company has drilled a third hole, PEP038, collared orthogonal to the first two holes for structural and lithological information.
• Additional surface sampling, airborne magnetics and geochemical analysis of the drill core will support further target delineation at Pepas North.

El Cedro

• To the south of Pepas, Orosur is conducting a large soil sampling programme.
• The programme has been hindered by heavy rains, but early assay results have shown a large-scale gold-in-soil anomaly, with some samples in excess of 1g/t Au and 0.5% Cu.

Conclusion: Orosur has been busy in Colombia, stepping out to North Pepas, completing encouraging met-test work showing 88% recoveries at coarse grind, and continuing infill drilling at the high-grade main zone. Drilling at North Pepas is believed to have intersected a halo zone of a more mineralised system, warranting further drilling. This will be supported by a comprehensive geophysical and geochemical programme. 3D modelling will support early resource definition programmes alongside preliminary economic assessments at Pepas.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Predictive Discovery* (PDI AU) A$0.35, Mkt Cap A$917m – Guinea junta revokes Argo and Bokoro licences in wider crackdown

• Predictive, who are progressing the 5.5moz Bankan Gold Project in Guinea, provide an update.
• Guinea’s Ministry of Mines and Geology has revoked over 100 exploration permits, including PDI’s Argo and Bokoro permits.
• PDI notes they submitted extension applications for the licences in 2021 and 2023, and has received no formal communication with the government.
• PDI plans to appeal the revocation ‘in accordance with the Mining Code.’
• Predictive had reported drilling results for Argo in April.
• No revocation has been made to the Kaninko and Saman exploration permits, which contain 5.38/5.53moz of the overall MRE.
• On the Exploitation Permit, PDI notes it was reviewed by the Ministry’s Technical Committee of Titles last week and the Company believes it has been transmitted to the National Mining Commission.
• Other miners impacted include Endeavour, who saw four gold exploration permits revoked over inactivity.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Predictive Discovery

Thor Explorations (THX LN) 37p, Mkt Cap £242m – Quarterly report reports record income and outlines exploration progress

• Reporting its results for the 3 months to 31^st March 2025, Thor Explorations reports record  quarterly net income of US$34.4m (Q1 2024 – US$12.4m) and net cash of US$24.7m (Q1 2024 – net debt US$14.3m).
• The company has declared a maiden quarterly dividend of C$0.125/share.
• The financial result reflects the sale of 22,750 oz of gold (Q1 2024 – 17,420 oz) produced at a cash operating cost of US$711/oz (Q1 2024 – US$418/oz) and an all-in sustaining cost of US$950/oz (Q1 2024 – US$623/oz).
• Processing of 231,825t of ore at an average grade of 3.24g/t gold delivered quarterly production of 22,594oz at an average recovery rate of 93.7% (Q1 2024 – 19,589oz produced at an average recovery rate of 90.7%).
• The company is currently testing the “continuity of the high-grade shoots that are projected to continue down-plunge to the south” at its Segilola mine in an underground diamond drilling programme and aims to “release the next set of results of the ongoing … drilling campaign in Q2 2025 and is aiming to define an updated resource before the end of 2025”.
• Regional exploration includes geochemical soil sampling to help define drill targets south of the mine which has identified “the new Owode target, which is located … south of Segilola” and is currently the focus of a reverse-circulation drilling campaign.
• The company has also “continued to carry out exploration work on its recently assembled project area located in Ondo, approximately 50 kilometres (“km”) to the south of Segilola” where it will start a “2,000 m scout drilling program commencing in early June 2025”.
• Thor Explorations is “completing a 12,000 metre drilling program on the Baraka 3 prospect … [at the Douta project] … in Q2 2025 from which, it will incorporate the drilling results into the … Pre-Feasibility Study”.
• Early-stage exploration geochemical sampling and mapping is underway at the Guitry and Marahui projects in the Ivory Coast  and the company aims to start “Drilling at … [both Marahui and Guitry] … is anticipated to start”  in late Q3 2025 and in Q2 2025 respectively.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return