Gold rises on Indian and central bank buying as Middle East tensions continue and dollar weakens
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – £220,000 fundraising
Arc Minerals (ARC LN) – Drilling in the Kalahari Copper Belt, Botswana
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Interim report focusses on continuing work at Boland, South Australia
Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Environmental Impact Assessment underway for Pitfield titanium project
Gemfields Group (GEM LN) – Cautious trading statement
Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) –Interim Results
Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW LN) – Royalty funding for Phalaborwa DFS
Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Canadian site visit highlights focus on high-grade iron and titanium feedstocks
Gold price ($2,655/oz) continues upward momentum as Middle East tensions continue and dollar weakens
- Spot gold prices climbed to $2,671/oz yesterday with before paring some gains as traders booked profits.
- Traders boosted positions on another 50bp cut in November, with the Fed guiding to two additional 25bp cuts going into the New Year.
- The post-FOMC Treasury sell-off seems to have abated, with the 10 year yield touching 3.8% before sliding back to 3.73%.
- The dollar has been weak against a basket of currencies, with focus on further dovish messaging from the Fed.
- Silver is also rallying, with retail investors piling into ETFs and pushing the price above $32/oz.
- Central Banks have been a major source of buying for gold this year, with ETFs yet to really get going.
- However, we’re starting to see this pick up, with physical holdings rising steadily since May lows.
- ETF gold holdings still sit well below 2023 levels over at 90moz.
- Israel’s escalating tension in the Middle East, with increased incursions in Lebanon are likely boosting safe haven appetite.
Copper – Chinese stimulus looks good but looks like a late reaction to a weakening economy
- Policymakers are ‘striving’ to meet GDP targets indicating a degree of wavering uncertainty.
- A 1,500t rise in LME copper stocks to 301,850t is another indication that all is not well in Europe with worsening manufacturing in Germany as the nation struggles to retool automotive manufacturing.
- Energy costs are a huge problem for many European manufacturers while strong unionisation makes it difficult for companies to restructure and avert the cost of rising unsold inventory.
- The collapse of Recaro Automotive GmbH, the car seat manufacturer is one of a number of events which we see as disrupting production lines across Europe.
Industrial metals strengthen alongside copper
- Iron ore pushed higher, climbing to $96/t for the 62% contract, whilst copper has held near the $9,800/t mark.
- Iron ore had touched $99/t in Singapore, before easing slightly.
- The combination of a dovish tilt from Powell and a larger-than-expected stimulus package from Xi Jinping has seen investors rush to buy commodity exposure.
- Aluminium and zinc have both climbed for a third day.
- China is looking to support their 5% growth targets; however, deflation remains a concern and consumers continue to lack demand.
Li-ion breakthrough in lithium solid-state battery technology promises improved EV performance
- imec, alongside 13 European partners has developed a lithium-metal solid-state battery with an energy density of 1,070Wh/L, surpassing current lithium-ion batteries’ 800Wh/L (EV Markets Reports).
- The higher energy density should enable longer range and more powerful EVs.
- The solid-state design improves safety through the replacement of liquid with a solid electrolytes, reduces the risk of leaks and fires, use of cobalt and addresses environmental and sustainability concerns.
- The “liquid-to-solid” electrolyte simplifies the manufacturing process and is compatible with existing lithium-ion production lines.
This is Why Gold is Rising and It Will Probably Continue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsA7ICSVku8
| Dow Jones Industrials | 0.20% | at | 42,208 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.19% | at | 37,870 | |
| HK Hang Seng | 0.61% | at | 19,117 | |
| Shanghai Composite | 1.16% | at | 2,896 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +0.6 | at | 3.734 |
Economics
China – Substantial stimulus to support collapsing property market
- China moved to prop up its property market yesterday through a 50bp rate cut with a further 20-50bp cut by year-end.
- Beijing also cut mortgage deposits on second homes to 15% from 25%.
- The authorities also cut the short-term seven-day RRP rate to 1.5% from 1.7%. adding ~$142bn in liquidity to the banking system.
- A further $71bn was released to support brokers and insurers buy equities with $43bn for share buybacks.
- The Central Bank will also support local governments to buy up unsold inventory from defaulting property developers.
- We see this as the first of a number of stimulus measures required to rescue the Chinese economy from its current malaise
US – Consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped this month by the most in three years, according to Conference Board data.
- The move was led by concerns over the labour market and the outlook for the broader economy, Bloomberg reports.
- Consumer Confidence (Sep/Aug/Est): 98.7/105.6(revised from 103.3)/104.0
China – The central bank lowers 1y medium term lending facility rate as part of a series of wide measures to stimulate economic growth.
- The rate was dropped by 30bp to 2.0%, in line with expectations and marking the steepest cut on record.
- The move follows announcement yesterday with PBOC cutting RRR and seven day repo rate along with direct measures to support property and equity markets.
- The package came after Chinese stocks hit a five year low following a series of piecemeal stimulus initiatives that failed to improve the sentiment.
- Mainland CSI 300 equities index is up 1.5% this morning on top of +4.3% recorded on Tuesday.
- Hang Seng Index also extended gains climbing 0.7% today adding to +4.1% recorded yesterday.
Eurozone – Market odds of another cut at the next meeting in October are rising especially amid quickly deteriorating growth outlook reported by latest PMI numbers.
- Chances of a 25bp move in October are now over 60%, up from 20% last week.
- 50bp in cuts before YE is nearly fully priced in.
- Governing Council member Madis Muller said Tuesday he is not “totally” ruling out another interest rate cut next month.
France – Consumer confidence surprisingly climbed in September maintaining momentum post summer Olympics.
- The measure hit the highest level since February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
- Consumer Confidence (Sep/Aug/Est): 95/93(revised from 92)/92
Australia – Inflation slowed to 2.7% in August, down from 3.5% in July and the lowest in three years.
- The drop is partly attributed to government subsidies in the energy market.
- The central bank earlier said that the slowdown in headline inflation is likely to be temporary and that it would need more evidence of sustained lower inflation before easing its monetary policy.
- The RBA held its rate at 4.35% unchanged this year after a hike in 2H23.
Currencies
US$1.1188/eur vs 1.1124/eur previous. Yen 143.87/$ vs 144.64/$. SAr 17.256/$ vs 17.282/$. $1.339/gbp vs $1.336/gbp. 0.688/aud vs 0.683/aud. CNY 7.020/$ vs 7.035/$.
Dollar Index 100.39 vs 100.97
Precious metals:
Gold US$2,654/oz vs US$2,629/oz previous
Gold ETFs 83.5moz vs 83.4moz previous
Platinum US$982/oz vs US$970/oz previous
Palladium US$1,045/oz vs US$1,058/oz previous
Silver US$31.7/oz vs US$30.9/oz previous
Rhodium US$4,750/oz vs US$4,750/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$9,768/t vs US$9,698/t previous
Aluminium US$2,546/t vs US$2,527/t previous
Nickel US$16,645/t vs US$16,655/t previous
Zinc US$2,990/t vs US$2,938/t previous
Lead US$2,063/t vs US$2,067/t previous
Tin US$32,145/t vs US$32,575/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$74.8/bbl vs US$74.8/bbl previous
Natural Gas €36.2/MWh vs €36.2/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $80.6/lb vs $80.0/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$96.4/t vs US$94.7/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$485.7/t vs US$483.2/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$117.5/t vs US$118.2/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$140.8/t vs US$139.5/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$60,977/t vs US$60,546/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,044/t vs US$10,020/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$740/t vs US$740/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$335/mtu vs US$335/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$445/t vs US$440/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 4.6/lb vs US$4.6/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 24.55/kg vs US$24.55/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$321/t vs US$320/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,361/t vs US$1,372/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$62.9/t vs US$63.4/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$285.0/t vs US$285.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$2,675.0/kg vs US$2,675.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$455.0/kg vs US$455.0/kg
Battery News
Biden Administration plans to ban Chinese electric cars over national security concerns
- The Biden administration has proposed a ban on all Chinese electric cars in the US due to national security risks. (Reuters)
- The US will prohibit key Chinese software and hardware in ‘connected vehicles’ on US roads, which would effectively block nearly all Chinese cars from the US market.
- The ban on hardware and software is the administration’s latest action to fend off competition from China, after imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs and denying a $7,500 consumer EV subsidy to any vehicle with made-in-China components.
- US automakers would be required to remove Chinese software and hardware from vehicles in the US over the next few years.
- The administration is concerned about data collection by Chinese companies and potential remote control or surveillance threats via connected vehicles.
- The proposed ban extends to vehicle software and hardware from other adversarial nations, including Russia.
China to build 1.6GW vanadium redox flow battery facility
- Chinese vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) specialist Hunan Yinfeng New Energy will invest around $1.63bn in the development of a major manufacturing facility in the Inner Mongolia region of China.
- $284m of investment will go into building a 300MW all-vanadium liquid flow electric stack, and facilities to produce 100,000m3 of vanadium liquid flow electrolyte and 10,000t of vanadium pentoxide.
- The rest of the investment will be used to build 1.3 GW of all-vanadium liquid flow electric and 500,000 cubic meters of all-vanadium liquid flow electrolyte and 10,000 tons of high-purity vanadium pentoxide.
- VRFBs are viewed as one of the most promising large-scale energy storage technologies due to their long cycle life and exceptional safety.
Grenergy to expand Chile battery project by 1GW
- Grenergy will expand its Oasis de Atacama battery project in Chile with two new phases through the acquisition of 1GW of solar power.
- The acquisition will double the solar generation capacity to 2GW and increase the battery storage capacity to 11GWh.
- Oasis de Atacama is expected to produce around 5.5TWh of energy per year.
- Grenergy has also signed a strategic agreement with BYD for 3GWh of battery capacity for large-scale storage systems.
GM’s EV sales gain momentum as expanded vehicle lineup spurs growth
- GM’s EV sales grew 70% through August 2024, selling nearly 21,000 EVs in July and August alone.
- Despite improvements, GM remains behind Hyundai/Kia and Ford in EV sales, and far behind Tesla, which sold over 164,000 EVs in Q2.
- GM currently offers eight EV models and plans to add two more by year-end, leading the industry in variety with 10 EV models.
- The company aims to produce 200,000 to 250,000 EVs by year-end, adjusting from an earlier target of up to 300,000.
- EVs remain less profitable than gasoline models, but GM expects profitability as production scales to 200,000 units.
- GM remains committed to transitioning to an all-electric lineup by 2035, with consumer demand guiding its strategy.
Company News
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 3.8% | 9.0% | Freeport-McMoRan | 7.9% | 13.0% |
| Rio Tinto | 3.8% | 10.1% | Vale | 6.4% | 4.6% |
| Glencore | 0.8% | 6.1% | Newmont Mining | 2.5% | 5.2% |
| Anglo American | 1.3% | 8.0% | Fortescue | 4.7% | 8.1% |
| Antofagasta | 0.3% | 9.5% | Teck Resources | 3.3% | 7.8% |
Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) 1.05p, Mkt Cap £6.2m – £220,000 fundraising
- Anglesey Mining reports that it has raised £220,000 (gross) from the issue of 22m shares at a price of 1p/share.
- We estimate that the additional shares represent ~4.5% of the enlarged company.
- The new funds will help in the development work at Parys Mountain as well as debt repayment and “Advancing development options at Grängesberg Iron Ore Mine”.
- Anglesey Mining cautions that it is “advancing a number of initiatives with a view to supporting its cash position, however if these are not successful the Company will need to raise further funds towards the end of the calendar year to continue to progress its activities”.
Arc Minerals (ARC LN) 1.63p, Mkt cap £24.3m – Drilling in the Kalahari Copper Belt, Botswana
(Anglo American holds 70% of the jv with Unico Minerals Limited with Arc Minerals holding the other 30% through Unico Minerals. Unico Minerals is a 67% jv with 33% held by Kopara Investments. Arc also holds 75% in Alvis-Crest (Proprietary) Limited which holds two licenses in the Kalahari Copper Belt, known as Virgo covering >210km2, around 10km south east the recently commissioned Khoemacau Copper in Botswana.)
- Arc Minerals’ interim results for the six months to 30th June report an operating loss of £0.51m and a 30th June cash balance of £2.40m.
- In a separate announcement today, the company reports the completion of an initial Phase 1, 8-hole (3,023m) programme of reverse-circulation (RC) and diamond core drilling at its Virgo project (PL 135/2017) in the Kalahari Copper Belt, Botswana.
- Arc Minerals explains that PL 135/2017 “is located towards the south-eastern margin of the Kalahari Copper Belt … [and is] … surrounded on three sides by the prospecting licences of Khoemacau Copper Mining Limited” and that its licence occupies “a similar geological setting to that recently drilled by Khoemacau at their recent Mawana Fold Discovery and the Zone 9 exploration target”.
- The company confirms that it has shipped 309 samples totalling 562kg of sampled core for assay and that it has now relocated the drilling equipment to a second Botswana Licence (PL162/2017) where “scout drilling in 2022 intersected 3m @ 1.45% Cu and 9.33 g/t Ag”.
- Drilling here is “expected to comprise approximately six holes, with the possibility of additional holes depending on observations from core resulting from the initial holes”..
Conclusion: We look forward to results from Arc Minerals’ continuing drilling in Botswana’s Kalahari Copper Belt and assays from the samples already shipped.
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 1.08p, Mkt cap £7.3m – Interim report focusses on continuing work at Boland, South Australia
- In its interim report for the six months to 30th June, Cobra Resources reports a loss of £0.38m (H1 2023 -£0.31m) and a closing cash balance of £0.49m.
- The company highlights progress in the exploration of its Boland ionic rare earths project in the Eyre Peninsula of South Australia where it is evaluating the potential for in-situ recovery (ISR) of the rare-earth-elements (REEs) from palaeochannel sediments contained within impermeable clays.
- Sonic core-drilling has identified “High grade concentrations across three zones of mineralisation … in geological formations with high permeabilities amenable to ISR”.
- Metallurgical test work, conducted by Australia’s Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) is “delivering exceptionally high recoveries with low impurities and low acid consumption … [described as] … a first for ionic REE projects outside of China”.
- Additional work includes the installation of “a five-hole screened wellfield to enable hydrological studies and support future permitting for ISR pilot trials” as well as the recently announced expansion of the company’s exploration licence holdings in the Eyre Peninsula taking its holding to 5,200km2.
- Looking ahead, further bench scale testing is expected as the company works “to optimise ISR extraction parameters” as well as additional “diagnostic leach tests across installed wellfield holes to enable economic assessment of the complete wellfield and all zones of mineralisation” and infill resource drilling.
- A “Scoping Study … [is] … expected to be published in 2025”.
- Chairman, Greg Hancock, explained that as Cobra Resources “works through its forward development plan, the Board considers that the true value of the Boland discovery will be demonstrated through project economics where we believe ISR will place the project within the lowest cost quartile of the production curve for Rare Earth projects globally”.
Conclusion: We look forward to a scoping study, expected next year, on the ISR potential of rare-earths at Boland and to further news on the exploration, resource definition and metallurgical workstreams contributing to the study.
Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 8.6p, Mkt Cap £52m – Environmental Impact Assessment underway for Pitfield titanium project
- Empire reports that is has commenced the environmental impact assessment process for Pitfield.
- The Company has initiated several studies on ecology and baseline dust monitoring.
- The Pitfield project is surrounded primarily by agricultural land, predominantly grain production and livestock grazing.
- Air quality studies will guide potential impacts from operations, enabling dust mitigation methods.
- Community consultation is ongoing with local stakeholders, and the Empire team has been active in the local town, Three Springs.
Conclusion: Empire continues to take the necessary steps to progress Pitfield towards production, beginning an expansive environmental and community assessment programme. This will leave them in good stead as they advance project financing discussions.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals
Gemfields Group (GEM LN) 11.75p, Mkt Cap £137m – Cautious trading statement
- In a trading statement issued ahead of the announcement of its interim results on Friday, Gemfields’ CEO, Sean Gilbertson, cautions that “the luxury and gemstone sectors are facing greater uncertainty than we have seen in the last three years”.
- The company says that the Kagem emerald mine in Zambia generated revenues of US$51.9m (H1 2023 – US$64.6m) and the Montepuez ruby mine in Mozambique added a further US$68.7m (H1 2023 – US$80.4m) over the first six months, with US$6.6m (H1 2023 – US$8.4m) revenue from Fabergé.
- Allowing for a US$4m write-down (to zero) for the holding in its Sedibelo platinum company, “Gemfields is reasonably certain that … its net profit after tax will be USD 13.7 million for the six months ended 30 June 2024 (2023 H1: net profit after tax of USD 18.1 million)”.
- Gemfields amplifies its view on the underlying forces behind its expected lower profit by saying that it “is driven by the lower revenues and higher costs at both operations, the Sedibelo write-down and an increase in net financing costs as the Group’s debt increases to help fund the construction of MRM’s second processing plant”.
- Mr. Gilbertson said that “This month we experienced a weaker-than-expected commercial-quality emerald auction. While this increases the uncertainty we face, management considers it unlikely that the November higher-quality emerald auction or the December mixed-quality ruby auction will see below par results of a similar scope”.
Conclusion: Lower interim profits expected as lower revenues in an uncertain gemstone market confront the challenge of higher costs at Gemfields’ operations.
Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) 0.034p, Mkt Cap £3m –Interim Results
- Great Western Mining report their half yearly report to 30th June 2024.
- The Company is exploring for copper and precious metals in Mineral County, Nevada, whilst also progressing their Western Milling precious metals operation.
- The year to date has seen the exploration team progress their ‘copper district’ in the Huntoon Valley, where they have identified a highly prospective porphyry target.
- Surface exploration has highlighted a copper anomaly over 2km2 at the West Huntoon project, and the Company is working to progress towards drilling.
- Regarding the Mill, the Company received full permits for operations this summer, and the JV group is currently in testing period at the site.
- The Company reports ‘some technical delays’ that ‘currently being dealt with.’
- The first stage of gold and silver processing uses just gravity separation and is expected to provide ‘stream of basic income.’
- This will be followed by more cash flow generative chemical leaching, which is in the permitting stage.
- The Company reported a cash balance of €91k at 30th June but has subsequently raised £500k before expenses.
Conclusion: Great Western is currently ramping up operations at their precious metal joint venture, at a time when gold is hitting record highs at $2,660/oz and silver is pushing above $32/oz. Teething issues are commonplace during ramp up and the JV group sees ‘first production of gold and silver concentrate in sight.’ Whilst the processing mill will provide a key income stream to the company, their copper potential at both West Huntoon and Eastside holds real transformative potential. It remains early stage, however the Company has identified a significant copper anomaly that warrants more detailed exploration and we look forward to updates going forward.
*SP Angel act as Broker to Great Western Mining, an SP Angel Analyst has visited Great Western’s Nevada claim blocks.
Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW LN) 925p, Mkt cap £58m – Royalty funding for Phalaborwa DFS
- Rainbow Rare Earths confirms that it has secured a US$8.5m royalty agreement with Ecora Resources to assist in the completion of its Definitive Feasibility Study on the Phalaborwa rare earths project in South Africa.
- The company recently confirmed that additional test work to identify operational and cost synergies to the Phalaborwa flowsheet could delay completion of the DFS by around six months although as we commented at the time, the potential operational and cost benefits over the sixteen-year project life should outweigh any adverse sentiment over the extended timetable
- The company confirms that the royalty funding, which incurred transaction costs of US$229.000, “in addition to the funds raised by the associated share subscription which completed in July and delivered an additional ca. US$1.5 million to Rainbow, for a total gross funding of US$10 million”.
Conclusion: Royalty funding is providing additional resources for the Phalaborwa DFS.
Rio Tinto (RIO LN) 5,080p, Mkt Cap £83bn – Canadian site visit highlights focus on high-grade iron and titanium feedstocks
- Rio Tinto hosted a site visit to their Canadian operations this week.
- The presentation shows their ambitions to boost growth from their Labrador high-grade iron ore concentrate operations, alongside their Tio2 industry offerings.
- Company expects global Tio2 feedstock demand o increase from 7.7mt in 2020 to 9.5mt in 2028, with a CAGR of >3% towards the end of the decade.
- However, it expects supply to increase to 9.3mt, growing at only 2% CAGR.
- Similarly, the Company expects DRI steelmaking capacity to see an increase of 110mtpa by 2030.
- Rio is looking to boost production to 23mtpa from their high-grade IOC operations.
No.1 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q1 2024
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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