SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 23rd July 2025

Gold prices hike higher again as US dollar continues to weaken

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Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Record production and strong gold prices expected to deliver strong profitability

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Revised production guidance in response to continuing diamond market weakness

Glencore (GLEN LN) – Closure of Australian copper mines (Bloomberg)

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) – Additional finance for Nevada tungsten projects

Power Metals Resources* (POW LN) – (Power Metals* holds a 19.5% stake in Guardian Metal Resources)

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) – 2Q25 operations update

Paladin Energy (PDN AU) – 4QFY25 operations update

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Geotechnical drilling confirms favourable conditions with oversight from the Sovereign-Rio Tinto Technical Committee

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Return of Pioche project samples

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) – €104m in grants conditionally approved for the Lionheart DLE Project

Gold ($3,421/oz) prices hike higher again as US dollar continues to weaken 

• The Yen carry trade appears to be back on with the Yen weakening as investors borrow Yen to sell for investment into higher yielding regions.
• Recent political strife and likely delays to hikes in Japanese interest rates are reported to be attracting hedge-funds back to the Japan carry trade.
• The signing of a new 15% Tariff deal with Japan is seen as good news for Japan though there was some Yen weakness on the news.
• Western governments are grappling with a combination of high debt levels and higher-than-desired interest rates raising debt service costs.

Copper ($9,888/t) prices continue to edge higher as US signs positive trade deal with Japan

Economics

US – Equity futures are trading higher on the back of optimism brought by an agreed trade with Japan.

• Under the deal, US will charge imports from Japan at 15% including autos (down from 25%).
• Additionally, a sovereign $550bn fund will be set up to make investments in the US.
• The agreement also includes a series of projects and procurement commitments for US products.
• Nikkei closed 3.5% higher this morning.

The administration also announced trade deals with Philippines and Indonesia with both nations facing 19% tariffs.

Treasury Secretary Bessent words of support for Powell saw US 10y Treasury yields pull back cooling markets’ unease over administration interference with the Fed.

• Bessent, speaking Tuesday on Fox Business, said that if Powell wants, he should stay until the end of his term in May.

Mali – US officials visit Mali as ruling junta is seeking foreign investment to support the fight against Islamist insurgents.

• A delegation including US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for West Africa William Stevens held talks with Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop.
• “We discussed the fight against armed terrorist groups supported by foreign state sponsors,” Diop said.
• Other topics included “the prospects for economic cooperation, including through private American investment in Mali, thanks to the improvement of our country’s business climate.”

Barrick Mining (Mali) – A court in Mali has rejected Barrick’s appeal to release four employees who were detained in the Central jail in Bamako in in November.

• Judge Samba Sarr is reported to have judged the appeal to be ‘unfounded’.
• The four detained local staff remain in pre-trial detention on allegations of money laundering, regulatory violations and other charges.

Currencies

US$1.1742/eur vs 1.1699/eur previous. Yen 146.73/$ vs 147.62/$. SAr 17.586/$ vs 17.650/$. $1.354/gbp vs $1.349/gbp. 0.658/aud vs 0.651/aud. CNY 7.163/$ vs 7.175/$.

Dollar Index 97.45 vs 97.87 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,421/oz vs US$3,389/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 91.6moz vs 91.3moz previous

Platinum US$1,454/oz vs US$1,448/oz previous

Palladium US$1,288/oz vs US$1,261/oz previous

Silver US$39.2/oz vs US$38.9/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,900/oz vs US$5,875/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,888/t vs US$9,880/t previous

Aluminium US$2,638/t vs US$2,640/t previous

Nickel US$15,480/t vs US$15,510/t previous

Zinc US$2,852/t vs US$2,835/t previous

Lead US$2,020/t vs US$2,011/t previous

Tin US$33,850/t vs US$33,790/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$68.6/bbl vs US$68.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable after the API estimated w/w draws of 0.6mb to crude and 1.2mb to gasoline, offset a 3.5mb build to distillate stocks. Last week’s surprising estimate of a 19.1mb build to crude inventories has now been downwardly revised to a 0.8mb w/w build.
• European energy prices edged higher as Norway’s maintenance season continues, with France’s nuclear generation falling 1% w/w to 67% of 61.4GW maximum capacity.
• Baker Hughes reported a 3% y/y fall in 2Q25 revenues and expects global upstream spending to decline by high-single digits, reflecting low-double digits in North America and high-single digits internationally.
• Enbridge has taken a final investment decision on a 600MW solar project in Texas that is expected online in mid-2027 at an estimated project cost of $900m, for which Meta has contracted 100% of the renewable output of the project to supply power to its data centre.
• Chestnut Carbon announced a $210m project finance credit facility led by JPMorgan and a syndicate of lenders in a first-of-its-kind bank financing for a US voluntary carbon removal afforestation project, which is supported by the long-term carbon removal supply agreement executed earlier this year with Microsoft.

Natural Gas €33.6/MWh vs €33.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.5/lb vs $71.2/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$113.8/t vs US$113.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$462.7/t vs US$461.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$179.0/t vs US$176.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$112.5/t vs US$110.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$66,869/t vs US$66,967/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,549/t vs US$9,672/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$770/t vs US$770/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$443/mtu vs US$433/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$285/t vs US$285/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,096/t vs US$1,094/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,975.0/kg vs US$2,955.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV and battery news

China switches on Phase 1 its largest standalone battery storage project

• China has connected the first phase of the Huadian Xinjiang Kashgar with a 500MW/2GWh capacity, making it China’s largest standalone lithium iron phosphate (LFP) storage system.
• It is designed as a four‑hour storage system and is envisaged to double to 1GW/4GWh in its second phase.
• The plant comprises 100 LFP units split evenly between grid‑forming and grid‑following inverters.
• China continues to scale up energy storage – last November saw the first phase of the 500MW/2GWh Xinhua Wushi hybrid project commissioned, and construction is now under way on a 1GW/6GWh facility in Ulanqab.

Svolt Energy to begin trial production of semi‑solid‑state batteries

• Svolt Energy will begin trial production of its first‑generation semi‑solid‑state batteries, in Q4.
• The trial run will utilise Svolt’s existing mass‑production semi‑solid battery line.
• They will supply the batteries to BMW’s Mini brand for its next‑generation models, with mass production planned for 2027.
• First‑generation units will feature soft‑pack cells delivering 300Wh/kg energy density at very low cost.
• Second‑generation designs target an energy density increase to 360Wh/kg.

Less than 400 EV charging ports built under $7.5bn infrastructure programme according to goverment report

• A Government Accountability Office report has found that the US states have built only 384 EV charging ports at 68 stations across 16 states through April under the $7.5bn National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure programme.

• In May, California and 15 other states sued the US Transportation Department for illegally withholding at least $3bn awarded under the 2021 infrastructure law to build charging stations.

• The Programme was suspended in February by the Trump administration, which also rescinded approval of state plans pending review and sought to cancel $6bn in unspent funding.

• Progress under the scheme remains slow and was branded a “vast administrative failure” by Senator Jeff Merkley in June 2024.

• The Trump administration has ended EV tax credits, revoked Biden’s 2021 clean vehicle executive order and cancelled numerous government charging projects.

 Company News

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 1,770p, Mkt Cap £315m – Record production and strong gold prices expected to deliver strong profitability

• Following the announcement earlier this month of record Q2 production at its Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe, which built on a record Q1 performance, and the lifting of its full year production guidance, Caledonia Mining reports that it expects to announce H1 financial results on 11th August.
• A 5% increase in H1 production to 39,741oz (H1 2024 – 37,823oz) prompted Caledonia Mining to increase its full year guidance for 2025 to 75-79,500oz of gold production from the previous 74-78,000oz guidance range.
• Caledonia Mining says today that, “Based on the current production profile at Blanket Mine, and assuming the continuation of favourable gold prices, the Company estimates that profitability for the full year of 2025 will be materially ahead of market expectations”.
• CEO, Mark Learmonth said that “the excellent production results announced on July 16, 2025. Combined with a robust and sustained gold price … [were generating] … strong profitability”.
• He credited the “hard work and dedication of the team at Blanket Mine and at group level” for the performance underpinning this profitability.

Conclusion: Aided by strong commodity prices and record production performance from the Blanket mine in Zimbabwe, Caledonia Mining is expecting profitability in excess of ‘market expectations’ when it reports H1 financial results on 11^th August.

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) 5.1p, Mkt Cap £8.5m – Revised production guidance in response to continuing diamond market weakness

• Gem Diamonds reports the production of 44,360 carats of diamonds from its Letšeng mine in Lesotho during the six months to 30^th June 2025 (H1 2024 – 55,873 carats).
• Sales of 44,360 carats at an average price of US$1,008/carat generated revenue of US$44.7m (H1 2024 – 56,944 carats sold at an average US$1,336/carat produced revenue of US$77.9m).
• The production was derived from the processing of ~2.5mt of ore, including ~0.8kt from the ‘Satellite’ pipe, at a recovered grade of 1.88 cpht (carats per hundred tonnes) compared with a similar volume at a higher grade of 2.20cpht during the first six months of 2024.
• Six individual diamonds “sold for more than US$1.0 million each, generating aggregate revenue of US$9.3 million in the Period”.
• “Four greater than 100 carat diamonds were recovered during the Period, of which three were sold”.
• Gem Diamonds says that “Post period end, a 250 carat Type II white diamond was recovered, however the quality is such that it is expected to yield a relatively low polished outcome”.
• The company describes its response to “the prolonged weakness in global diamond prices, compounded by a weak US dollar and ongoing US tariff uncertainties”.  Measures include:
  • Reductions in the planned volumes of waste stripping at both the Main and Satellite pits “to a minimum for an initial 12-month period without compromising the longer-term life of mine plan”; and
  • Mining an “additional 0.5 million tonnes of high value Satellite pipe material … [to] … process during H2 2025”; and
  • The consideration of possible reductions in the workforce of around 20% (~250 employees) “to align with the scaled-back waste mining operations and other necessary operational changes”; and
  • Reductions in corporate costs including “temporary salary reductions for Board, Executives and management personnel” with consideration of “awarding shares in lieu of salary to partially compensate the Executives and management personnel for the reduction in cash remuneration and to further align the interests of key management with shareholders”.
• The introduction of these cost containment measures prompts a revision to the company’s 2025 production guidance with expected waste stripping reduced to 1.8-2.0mt (previously 5.0-5.5mt).
• Although processed ore tonnes remain at an expected 4.9-5.1mt for the year, the contribution of ore from the Satellite pit increases to 1.2-1.4mt (previously 0.8-1.0mt) although guidance for diamond production is unchanged in the range 87-90,000 carats for the year.
• Collectively, these actions are expected to deliver a reduction in the operating costs, in local terms, from the previous range of 345-360 Maloti per tonne treated to 295-310 Maloti/t.
• Expected capital expenditure for the year is in the range US$4.0-5.0m (previously US$4.0-6.0m).
• Today’s announcement also confirms that “the Ghaghoo mine site was formally handed back to the Botswana Ministry of Minerals and Energy, through the Department of Mines. As of 1 June 2025, the Department of Mines has assumed full responsibility for the mine and the Company has no further obligations or commitments related to the license or the mine”.

Conclusion: Gem Diamonds is introducing cost saving measures and amendments to its operating plan at the Letšeng mine in response to the weaker global rough diamond market, US$ weakness and tariff uncertainty.

Glencore (GLEN LN) 325p, Mkt Cap £38.7bn – Closure of Australian copper mines (Bloomberg)

• The Company is planning to close its last two copper mine in Mt Isa, Queensland, next week.
• A shutdown of mines that were in operation for more than six decades would end its upstream copper operations in Australia.
• The decision whether to close the copper smelter down is subject to the result of discussions with authorities regarding a potential financial support.
• The smelter and the refinery in Townsville have been struggling amid intense competition from China that saw TC/RCs going negative.
• Glencore will make a decision on the smelter by the end of September.

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) 65.5p, Mkt Cap £84m – Additional finance for Nevada tungsten projects

Power Metals Resources* (POW LN) 15p, Mkt cap £16m – (Power Metals* holds a 19.5% stake in Guardian Metal Resources)

• Guardian Metal Resources reports that it has raised ~£15.6m (US$21m) by issuing ~25.9m additional shares at a price of 60p/share.
• “The Fundraising is led by the Company’s largest shareholder, UCAM, which has subscribed for 16,666,666 new Ordinary Shares, for proceeds of approximately £10.0 million (approximately US$13.5 million)”.
• Proceeds will be deployed to advance the company’s Nevada tungsten projects at Pilot Mountain and Tempiute, including additional drilling, metallurgical work and pre-feasibility work.
• In a separate announcement today the company reports that the US Department of Defence (DoD) has awarded it US$6.2m “under Title III of the Defense Production Act of 1950” to advance the Pilot Mountain tungsten project pre-feasibility study.
• The company confirms that the funds from the DoD are “non-dilutive to Guardian Metal shareholders and no commercial covenants are included in the Award that would impair Guardian Metal’s current business, nor the future sale of tungsten concentrates to the industrial base”.
• Commenting on the Government and investor financial support, CEO, Oliver Friesen, said that it “is a strong endorsement of our mission to establish a secure, Mined-in-America supply of Tungsten – a critically important defense metal”.

Conclusion: Guardian Metal Resources has secured additional financial support from both the US Government and from investors to support its Nevada tungsten projects.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metals

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) 282p, Mkt Cap £1.4bn – 2Q25 operations update

• The Company released 2Q25 production update for its precious metals operations in Latin America.
• 2Q25 attributable production 58koz gold and 2.0moz silver for 82koz GE (-1.6%yoy).
• 1HH25 attributable production 116koz gold and 3.8moz silver for 162koz GE (+5.8%yoy):
  • Immaculada 106koz GE (-3.0%);
  • San Jose 53koz GE (-7.0%);
  • Mara Rosa 28koz GE (+98.5%).
• Mara Rosa processing plant remained in suspension since 23 June to carry out maintenance activities and mechanical filter repairs with mining operations continuing as planned.
• Revised FY25 guidance to be released with Interim results in late August.
• The Company is on track to meet its former attributable production targets at the Inmaculada and San Jose, although, guidance for the Mara Rosa operation was suspended due to the plant stoppage.
• Closing cash of $110m (Dec24: $97m).
• Net debt reduced to $203m (Dec24: $216m) after $10m in final dividend payment and buyback of $13m of Monter do Carmo streaming agreement from Sprott.
• ND/EBITA at a low of 0.4x of quarter end.

Paladin Energy (PDN AU) A$7.3, Mkt Cap A$2.9bn – 4QFY25 operations update

• The Company released 4QFY25 operations update for the Langer Heinrich Uranium Mine (LHM) in Namibia
• 4QFY25 operating results included:
  • 994klbs produced and 710klbs sold
  • $55.6/lb realised price and $37.5/lb cash costs
• FY25 results:
  • 3.0mlbs produced and 2.7mlbs sold
  • $65.7/lb realised price and $40.2/lb cash cost
• FY26 guidance:
  • 4.0-4.4mlbs produced 3.8-4.2mlbs sold
  • $44-48/lb cash costs
  • $26-32m capital and exploration costs.
• FY25 CFO (post interest) -US$6m with the Company receiving $29m in early July for revenues booked in June.
• Closing cash balance $89m (ex $4m in restricted cash) with $87m in drawn debt balance and $50m available undrawn facilities.
• Stock closed 11% down this morning.

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 37.2p, Mkt Cap £243m – Geotechnical drilling confirms favourable conditions with oversight from the Sovereign-Rio Tinto Technical Committee

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)

• Sovereign Metals report results from extensive DFS-level geotechnical drilling and related analysis across all critical infrastructure locations.
• Tests confirm favourable subsurface conditions which align with the relatively well-known regional geology.
• Sovereign can now plan detailed engineering design using more standardised foundation designs for construction of the mine, process plant etc. for the DFS.
• The geotechnical work covered mining infrastructure, the tailings storage and site of raw water dam with >400 samples taken.
• Field testing for the characterisation of soil and rock profiles:
• Key areas tested:
  • Mining Infrastructure: main access roads, northern process plant, contractors’ and accommodation camps, railway spur, electrical substation, power plant, and support facilities,
  • Tailings Storage Facility, and Raw Water Dam.
• Field testing for the characterisation of soil and rock profiles:
  • Rotary Core Drilling with standard penetration testing,
  • Cone Penetration Test with pore pressure measurements (CPTu),
  • Dynamic Probe Super Heavy (DPSH),
  • Geophysics: multi-channel analysis of surface wave (MASW),
  • Spiral Auger Drilling,
  • Dynamic Cone Penetrometer (DCP),
  • Trenches, and
  • Test pitting.
• Key Statistics per Development Area.

Conclusion:  The press release gives significant detail on the work required by Rio Tinto and the team to fully assess and derisk the Kasiya rutile and graphite project.

The sheer scale of the mine plan and resource requires substantially more work than your average mining project, though much of this is relatively simple work which is also done ahead of construction on most Western-led new mines.

Failure, to run these sorts of geotechnical tests will almost result in increased cost and downtime later on in the construction or mining process.

The Sovereign-Rio Tinto technical committee and project team are writing the textbook on how to fully assess a mine and its site pre-construction and many miners would do well to follow Sovereign’s lead.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. An SP Angel analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site. We highly recommend the Malawi coffee beans sold in Lilongwe airport

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) 0.02p Mkt Cap £1.1m – Return of Pioche project samples

• Sunrise Resources reports that it has now received samples from its Pioche sepiolite project in Nevada, totaling ~1 tonne in weight, recovered by Tolsa USA as part of its project assessment prior to their withdrawal from the project in December 2024.
• The samples, derived from a combination of trenching, auger and sonic drilling were taken when Tolsa held an option to acquire the project and were shipped to Tolsa’s Spanish head office.
• The material will now be used for “for additional in-house testing by the Company’s partner in the project, Tom Powell, an expert in sepiolite, and to provide material to various parties who have expressed interest in the Pioche Project since Tolsa’s withdrawal”.
• Commenting that receiving the sample material back from Tolsa had “taken rather longer than anticipated … [Executive Chairman, Patrick Cheetham explained that] … Tolsa’s work has added substantially to the value of the Project over and above the US$1.2 million option purchase price that was first agreed with Tolsa back in 2022, prior to any exploration taking place”.
• Mr. Cheetham said that Sunrise Resources is “very encouraged to see a high level of interest in the Project from both US domestic companies, as well as international industrial mineral companies … [and said that] … we are now able to move our discussions with interested parties to the next stage”.

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) A$4.2, Mkt Cap A$985m – €104m in grants conditionally approved for the Lionheart DLE Project

• Two grants funded by German governments totalling up to €104m were approved for the Phase One Lionheart DLE Project.
• Clean Lithium for Battery Cell Production grants (Li4BAT) consist of two parts including lithium raw materials production in Landau, Rhineland-Palatinate, and a lithium hydroxide processing in Frankfurt, Hesse.
• Grants will form part of the project funding package including a €100m grant for the renewable heating part of the Project and up to €500m approved by the Board of European Investment Bank.
• Grants to be distributed pro rate over 36m following eligible expenditure from 1 October 2025.
• Grants are subject to several conditions including closing Phase One project funding by 1 September 2025, construction start by January 2026 and the planned completion of the Raw Materials Fund (RMF) equity investment by 31 March 2026.
• €150m RMF investment is being discussed and is planned to form the final cornerstone for Phase One Lionheart funding in 2H25.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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