SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 1st October 2025

Gold hits another new high on potential as traders position for government shutdown

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Avanti Gold (AGC CN) – Management update and C$15m placing to support DRC gold exploration

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – BUY – 182p NAV – Update from Finland as GAMP progress advances

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) – Maiden drill programme at Khaleesi, Peru gets underway

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Resignation of NED

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Mushima North mineralised zone extended to the north with higher-grade mineralisation

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) – Interim report highlights new investors replacing Glencore and improvements to the feasibility study

Gold US$3,873/oz – hits another new high on potential for lower Fed interest rates and traders position for government shutdown

• Gold prices have continued their dramatic march higher, now up 12% this month.
• The US government has begun its first shutdown since 2018 after Congress failed to reach a funding deal.
• A truce could see gold prices give back some gains as traders take profits.
• Prices have been on a tear since their range-bound summer, where they hovered around $3,330/oz.
• They have subsequently jumped over $500/oz, as the dollar failed to rebound, Treasury yields slid, and BRIC central banks continued to accumulate.
• We are now seeing increased appetite from Western investors, both institutional and retail, as a case of ‘FOMO’ kicks in.
• This has seen ETF levels climb encouragingly, now sitting at 97moz.
• We remind readers that this level remains well below those reached in the 2020 and 2022 bull markets, peaking at 110moz and 105moz respectively.
• Should this trend continue, we would not be surprised to see gold prices break above $4,000/oz.

Growing internationalisation of the China’s Yuan as forex share rises to 8.5% from 7% and 2.2% in 2013 according to BIS survey

• The Yuan continues to hold raise its share according to the BIS 2025 Triennial Central Bank Survey on the size and structure of global OTC forex and interest rate derivative trade.
• China should expand its supply of yuan-denominated safe assets and increase the yuan’s role in settlement and commodity pricing, to further promote the currency’s international use according to local analysts at China International Capital Corporation (SCMP).
• The Euro’s share of global trade fell to 28.9% from 30.6% in 2022
• The Japanese Yen remained stable at 16.8%  in 2022
• Sterling’s share of global trade fell to 10.2% from 129.%  in 2022.

We suspect Central Banks in China and other BRICS nations continue to buy gold to diversify their reserves ahead of potential further US dollar devaluation

Barrick Gold – CEO Mark Brostow sudden departure from Barrick highlights

• Mark Bristow has left Barrick rather suddenly and before his previously stated expectation with Bristow’s allegedly combative leadership style likely to leave few tears over his departure.
• Barrick’s four managers who are currently enjoying the luxuries of the Central jail in Bamako, Mali are also not likely to thank Bristow for his efforts.
• Mali had previously detained the four senior local Barrick employees, who were later released after a preliminary agreement over mining revenues in September last year.
• But, Mali re-arrested the four in November and then issued an arrest warrant for Bristow alleging money laundering and violations of financial regulations.
• The Loulo-Gounkoto mine was then suspended in January following the banning of gold exports and state control measures on the mine.
• Sources in Mali point towards Barrick / Randgold’s dispute over long-term tax payments in the country.
• Certain sources feel Randgold / Barrick should have been less aggressive with its tax treatment and more generous to the government.
• We suspect Bristow will retire to his game farm in South Africa where we feel sure he will get on well with the rhinos.

Lithium names are trading lower on the news that Chinese regulators approved reserves of two major lithium producers including CATL’s Jianxiawo operation. (Bloomberg)

• Gotion High-Tech that continued to operate the mine during the period had also been granted approval.
• Two miners were among eight asked by authorities to resubmit reserve reports for approvals by the end of September.
• News over a suspension of Jianxiawo operations in August led to a rally in lithium prices on speculation of a broader Beijing crackdown on lithium oversupply.
• Although, a separate report released in September that speculated that CATL executives were asking employees to get ready to resumption of operations knocked the sentiment down.
• Jianxiawo, the largest in Yichun, accounts for ~3-6% of global lithium supply.
• IGO was down 4% as were ALB (-7%), SQM (-3%), PLS (-6%), LTR (-11%) and SGML (-6%).

China state run iron ore buyer told major steelmakers to temporarily suspend purchases of all new BHP product. (Bloomberg)

• The announcement suggests that new deals cannot be signed including cargoes that have already left Australia.
• The decision follows several meetings held by both parties since late last week that failed to deliver a new agreement.
• The news comes weeks after the Chinese agency told steelmakers to temporarily pause using BHP’s Jimblebar fines.
• The decision was driven by ongoing discussions over long term contracts.
• BHP is down 2.5% in Australia today.

Economics

US – The federal government was shut down overnight after lawmakers could not agree budget spending levels, health insurance subsidy provisions and foreign aid cuts.

• This is the first shutdown since 2018-2019 that lasted 35 days and was the longest in the US history.
• Republicans offered a stop gap measure to keep government open through November 21 but Democrats argued that any bill should include an extension of healthcare subsidies due to expire at the end of the year.
• Federal agencies are expected to announce a series of staff furloughs and scale back public services.
• NFPs are likely to be delayed from the planned release on Friday.
• The shutdown drew a muted response with the S&P 500 futures trading 0.7% down this morning and 10y yields little changed at 4.15%.

China – Milestone 10,000km of subsea pipelines give China flexibility in the low-cost delivery of fuel

• SCMP reports the laying of >10,000km of subsea pipeline with a final section of the Bohai Bay deep-sea pipeline laid on Sunday.
• China plans to add a further 3,000km of pipeline to the network with plans to transport hydrogen and shale and natural gas.
• A new gas field, Deep Sea No1 was connected in June with capacity of 4.5bcm.
• The network should reduce reliance on oil and gas imports.

UK – Property prices climbed 2.2%yoy last month, up on 2.1% in August, on Nationwide figures.

• Prices are reported to have been supported by low unemployment and rising wages.
• Nevertheless, price growth was the weakest in London where prices were stagnant climbing only 0.6%.
• Flagged tax increases to be announced next month are likely to affect the property market outlook.

Currencies

US$1.1755/eur vs 1.1744/eur previous. Yen 147.22/$ vs 148.01/$. SAr 17.251/$ vs 17.249/$. $1.346/gbp vs $1.345/gbp. 0.661/aud vs         0.660/aud. CNY 7.121/$ vs 7.123/$.

Dollar Index 97.58 vs   97.75 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,873/oz vs US$3,852/oz previous

Gold ETFs 96.9moz vs 96.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,582/oz vs US$1,600/oz previous

Palladium US$1,257/oz vs US$1,265/oz previous

Silver US$47.3/oz vs US$46.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,125/oz vs US$7,125/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,311/t vs US$10,378/t previous

Aluminium US$2,690/t vs US$2,670/t previous

Nickel US$15,255/t vs US$15,240/t previous

Zinc US$2,973/t vs US$2,924/t previous

Lead US$1,994/t vs US$1,991/t previous

Tin US$35,575/t vs US$35,280/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$66.4/bbl vs US$67.3/bbl previous

Natural Gas €31.4/MWh vs €32.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $81.9/lb vs $82.0/lb previous 

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.4/t vs US$102.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$449.1/t vs US$449.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$191.0/t vs US$186.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.6/t vs US$109.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$35,000/t vs US$35,000/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,917/t vs US$78,272/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,012/t vs US$10,010/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$593/mtu vs US$593/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Chinese automakers investing more abroad than at home for first time

• Chinese EV makers invested $30.4bn abroad on average in 2022-24, up from $8.5bn in 2018-21.
• Domestic EV investment has collapsed from $94bn in 2022 to $15bn in 2024 according to Rhodium Group data.
• BYD is building factories in Hungary (2025) and Turkey (2026); Geely in Vietnam; whilst Chery and Great Wall are expanding in Russia and Latin America.
• China is now facing tariffs in the EU, US, Canada, Turkey and Brazil, and so automakers are turning focus to Asia (33% of new investment) as well as the Middle East and North Africa (25% of new investment).

Icephobic and dustphobic coatings to improve wind turbine efficiency

• Phazebreak Coatings have developed coatings NEINICE and SURFACE SLIP to improve performance of turbine blades in extreme conditions.
• NEINICE has been applied to over 12,000 turbines and has shown to improve efficiency of blades by 7.7%, a demo across Scandinavia saw coated turbines produce 1.96GWh vs 1.86GWh from uncoated turbines over a four month period.
• Application costs are typically recouped within 1-2 winters with coating lasts 3-4 years before reapplication.

 Company news

Avanti Gold (AGC CN) C$0.54, Mkt Cap C$68m – Management update and C$15m placing to support DRC gold exploration

• DRC gold explorer Avanti Gold has appointed Martin Pawlitschek as CEO.
• Mr. Pawlitschek is currently CEO of Sanu Gold, who are backed by Lundin-backed Montage Gold and AngloGold Ashanti.
• We note Montage CEO Martino de Ciccio is Senior Adviser to Avanti
• Ex-Resolute General Manager Mohamed Cisse has been appointed COO.
• Terry Holohan, most recently CEO at Resolute Mining, has been appointed Lead Independent Director.
• Additionally, Avanti has raised C$15m via a LIFE offering at C$0.5/share and a half warrant exercisable at C$0.65/share over the next three years.
• Avanti holds the Missi Gold Project, which holds an inferred MRE of 44.3mt at 2.37g/t Au for 3.1moz in its Akyanga deposit.

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 10p, Mkt Cap £6m – Update from Finland as GAMP progress advances

BUY – 182p NAV

• Beowulf reports an update from their Finnish graphite subsidiary, Grafintec.
• Management has been holding key stakeholder meetings, conducting an initial public meeting for the GAMP project on 23^rd September in Keltakallio.
• The Company presented plans for GAMP at the event, also attended by Easpring, who are building a Cathode Active Materials plant .
• Management conducted several site visits to identify a suitable site for the demonstration plant for GAMP, with pilot testing key for product certification with customers.
• Grafintec will also initiate a site-specific Environmental Impact Assessment and permitting process for GAMP, once a site has been confirmed.
• Regarding exploration, management visited the Aitolampi and Rääpysjärvi projects in Eastern Finland, which they see as future sources of feedstock for GAMP.
• Aitolampi has 26.7mt at 4.8% TGC for 1.3mt Cg, making it one of Europe’s largest flake graphite resources.
• Metallurgical testwork has shown concentrate can be purified to over 99.95% TCG required for anode production.
• Rääpysjärvi remains undrilled, although surface sampling and trenching has shown the potential for a similar, if not larger, sized deposit to Aitolampi.
• Focus going forward in Finland will include drilling and defining a resource at Rääpysjärvi to support a longer-term, Beowulf-owned graphite feedstock supply.

Conclusion: Encouraging comments from Beowulf’s management regarding the exploration potential in Finland for graphite. Rääpysjärvi remains undrilled, with the exploration team noting it may hold the potential to double the Company’s graphite resources. As GAMP development is accelerating, a Company-owned supply of graphite concentrate is expected to boost the economics of the anode plant further, increasing its appeal to funding sources and strategic partners.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining, An SP Angel analyst recently visited Kallak

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) C$1.22, Mkt Cap C$122m – Maiden drill programme at Khaleesi, Peru gets underway

• C3 Metals, who hold copper-gold licence packages in Jamaica and Peru, provide an update from their Khaleesi Project.
• Khaleesi, in Peru’s Andahuaylas-Yauri Porphyry-Skarn belt, holds prospectivity for copper-gold mineralisation in skarn, epithermal and porphyry targets.
• C3 Metals has consolidated a 310km2 land package within 45km of Las Bambas and Constancia.
• To date, C3 Metals has conducted extensive geophysical programmes, with mag and IP anomalies showing a large anomalous zone coincident with high-grade copper-molybdenum in soils.
• The soil anomaly measures 1,900m x 650m.
• The Mag survey has identified a large, near-surface magnetic body, separating into two bodies at depth and coincident with areas of high copper geochemistry in soils.
• The IP survey has defined two near-surface IP chargeability anomalies, extending 600m vertically.
• Today, C3 reports the start of a 14 hole, 6,300m drill programme with two rigs.
• The first rig will test a broad zone of skarn hosted copper-gold mineralisation coincident with  geophysics anomalies.
• This will target seven holes over 3,000m.
• The second rig will target porphyry-style mneralisation mapped at surface, with seven holes over 3,300m.

Conclusion: We are particular interested in C3 Metals owing to their methodical approach to drill target delineation. Their progress at Khaleesi in Peru is an example of this, with widespread geochemical and geophysical yielding encouraging and large-scale targets. These targets are now being tested, with 6,300m of drilling getting underway over 14 holes. We will watch closely, while drills are also turning at their Jamaican gold and copper projects simultaneously.

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) 3.2p, Mkt Cap £4.4m – Resignation of NED

• Gem Diamonds reports the resignation of non-executive director, Mazvi Maharasoa, “to pursue other opportunities”.
• Ms Maharasoa’s departure will be effective from 31^st December.
• Non-Executive Chairman, Harry Kenyon-Slaney, thanked her for “her significant contribution … [and wished her] … all the very best for the future”.
• Mr. Kenyon-Slaney confirmed that the “Board remains confident that Gem Diamonds’ leadership retains the right balance of skills and experience to support the Company’s strategy going forward”.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.07p, Mkt Cap £3.4m – Mushima North mineralised zone extended to the north with higher-grade mineralisation

• Tertiary Minerals reports further encouraging assays from the A1 Target at Mushima North, Zambia.
• The Company has been undertaking their Phase 2 drilling programme over 1,116m, spaced 100m and 250m apart, north-south.
• Holes were drilled to a maximum depth on the drill rig capabilities and geological ground conditions.
• Deepest hole to date was drilled at 99m, with average depth of 70m.
• Highlights from today’s results include:
  • 25TMNAC-038: 58m at 49g/t Ag, 0.26% Cu and 0.16% Zn from 8m, (inc. 9m at 124g/t Ag, 0.73% Cu and 0.25% Zn from 57m)
• Hole 25TMNAC-039 was drilled 100m west of the above hole, to test continuation of mineralisation to the north, returning 6m at 13g/t Ag, 0.07% Cu and 0.02% Zn from 6m.
• Hole 25TMNAC-040 was drilled 100m west of 25TMNAC-026 and returned no significant mineralisation.
• Importantly, hole 25TMNAC-038 has successfully extended the mineralised footprint by a further 100m to the north, with the zone now extending over 450m x 400m.

Conclusion: Hole 25TMNAC-038 was particular encouraging from today’s results, extending the mineralised footprint at A1 in Zambia by a further 100m to the north. Additionally, it showed the area’s prospectivity for higher-grade mineralisation, returning a 9m of 185g/t AgEq. Tertiary’s management emphasises that mineralisation remains open to the north and at depth, providing further scope for expansion. Tertiary is reinforcing their belief that Mushima North holds the potential for a bulk-tonnage, open pit operation. Metallurgical testwork will be important in taking A1 to the next stage of progression.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) 8p, Mkt Cap £67m – Interim report highlights new investors replacing Glencore and improvements to the feasibility study

• Zanaga Iron Ore reports a pre and post-tax loss of ~US$3.5m for the six months to 30^th June 2025 (H1 2024 – loss of ~US$1.1m) and a closing cash balance of ~US$3.9m.
• Today’s announcement highlights the completion, in March, of a US$23m equity issue with “US$15 million of the gross proceeds … used to repurchase and then cancel Glencore’s entire 43% equity stake in ZIOC, leading to the termination of Glencore’s Offtake Agreement and Relationship Agreement with the Company”.
• The fundraising introduced a key “group of investors who have significant experience in the mining industry, project and infrastructure development, and strong relationships in the Republic of Congo” including:
  • “Greymont Bay LLC … whose investors and advisers include Mark Cutifani, Tony Trahar, Tony O’Neil, Phil Mitchell, and Heeney Capital Resource Partners”; and
  • “Gagan Gupta, Founder and CEO of Arise”; and
  • “Sir Mick Davis, a highly successful mining executive, is credited with listing, leading, and growing Xstrata into one of the world’s largest diversified mining companies before its acquisition by Glencore in 2013”.
• In July, Zanaga Iron the updated its, April 2024, Feasibility Study for the development of the 30mtpa Zanaga Iron Ore Project in the Republic of Congo.
• The study describes an initial 12mtpa operation costing US$1.94bn and delivering a 68.5% iron product at a cost of US$31.5/t ramping up to the 30mtpa level at an additional cost of US$1.87bn delivering a higher-grade (69.1%) product at a lower US$24.9/t operating cost.
• The deposit hosts a ‘Proven & Probable’ ore reserve of ~2bn tonnes at an average grade of 33.9% iron within a total ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resource of ~6.9bn tonnes at a grade of 32% iron within a 25km long portion of an overall 47km long “strike length of the orebody so far identified”.
• Non-Executive Chairman, Clifford Elphick, described the exit of Glencore and “the termination of its offtake rights … [as] … transformative”.
• He said that “positive metallurgical test … [results which showed] … a significant improvement in the planned product quality compared to the 2014 Feasibility Study … confirmed the DRI grade pellet feed quality from the Zanaga Project … [and] … not only significantly improved the Zanaga Project’s economics but also elevated its profile globally, demonstrating its capacity to supply the growing low-emission DRI sector-an essential step towards producing green steel”.
• Mr. Elphick also commented that “strategic initiatives being pursued by management are expected to further boost the Zanaga Project’s economic performance throughout the remainder of the year … [and expressed confidence] … that with the current momentum, the Zanaga Project is on the path to realising its true potential”.

Conclusion: Reporting H1 results Zanaga Iron hails the departure of Glencore from its register and confirms that the updated feasibility study offers Zanaga Iron a new route to development of its 2bn tonne iron-ore reserve in the Republic of Congo.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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