SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 17th September 2025

Gold pulls back after touching record highs as Fed meeting in focus

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo American (AAL LN) – Anglo signs deal with Codelco to combine the Los Bronces and Andina mines

Barrick Mining (B US) – Fourmile study highlights 750kozpa potential

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Additional ionic rare-earths targets in South Australia

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Further additions to strong technical team with appointment of marketing manager

Highland Copper (HI CN) – EXIM financing for Copperwood Project

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Interim report focusses on exploration progress in Zimbabwe

Orion Minerals (ORN AU) – Glencore financing term sheet

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Further testing at the Zulu lithium plant, Zimbabwe

SolGold (SOLG LN) – Tandayama América drilling supports the case for early open-pit mining at Cascabel

Syrah Resources Limited (SYR AU) – Tesla and Syrah extend cure date on alleged offtake default for AAM samples

Xtract Resources (XTR LN) – Expanding its antimony exploration licences in Morocco

Gold ($3,670/oz) pulls back after touching record highs as Fed meeting in focus

• Gold made a run for $3,700/oz yesterday morning but has subsequently retraced ground.
• The metal is sitting near record highs as the dollar index continues to slide, with the Euro hitting 12 month highs yesterday.
• US Treasury yields are sliding as the market continues to position for a dovish Powell.
• 25bp is currently consensus, with analysts expecting the Fed Chair to emphasise the Fed’s focus on the weakening labour market as inflation appears under control.
• Gold traditionally rallies when yields slide, although this correlation has been skewed by heavy central bank buying.
• Central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996.
• Gold currently represents c.2% of the US$300tn invested in global financial assets.

Copper leads metals lower as dollar sell-off pauses and China property slump deepens

• Metals have pulled back from their rally, stimulated by a dollar sell-off that seems to have stabilised.
• Metals have also been supported by increased growth expectations expected from a Fed rate cutting cycle set to get underway this evening.
• Copper is down 1.7%, having climbed over $10,150/t yesterday.
• Meanwhile PGMs, nickel, lead and zinc have all turned red this morning.
• Increased pessimism over the health of the Chinese property market is resurfacing, with property investment falling 13%yoy in the first eight months of 2025.
• China-US trade talks may have some impact.

US eyes $5bn mining fund in JV with Orion to support critical mineral projects

• Bloomberg reported yesterday that the US International Development Finance Corp is looking to set up a fund to invest in mining.
• The fund will reportedly be in JV with Orion Resource Partners.
• Orion recently teamed up with the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund to invest in metals and mining projects.
• The US fund will focus on critical minerals including rare earths, copper and cobalt.
• Trump’s administration has focused on critical mineral opportunities in the DRC, Ukraine and Greenland, with the US EXIM bank starting to write financing cheques.
• Orion has $8bn in AUM and invests in both private equity and public markets, alongside offering streaming and royalty financing.
• Orion had been bidding for Chemaf Resources alongside Virtus Minerals to gain exposure to copper and cobalt in the DRC.

Industrial and EV metals prices rising

• • Firm demand for tungsten and lithium continues to raise prices in China
  • Ongoing growth in exports combined with growth in domestic demand is a key driver
  • We also suspect the Chinese authorities continue to inspect and disrupt some mines as the state looks to reduce competition and allow feedstock prices to rise.
  • Deflation: this may be part of a drive / policies to reverse the deflationary impact of lower exports to the US.

Economics

Switzerland – Authorities raid Swiss trader over Russian gold transactions

• Swiss police raided the local office of Open Mineral AG last Thursday.
• The raid is reported to be part of an investigation into potential sanctions breaches on the trading of Russian gold.

Anglo told to move HQ to Canada by Mark Carney

• We like to thank the former Governor of the Bank of England for issuing an ultimatum to Anglo to move its HQ to Canada as a condition for approval to merge with Teck Resources.
• Mark Carney is reported to have made it clear that shifting headquarters was a requirement that any prospective buyer for Teck would have to meet according to the Globe and Mail.
• Is Vancouver any closer to Anglo’s South African operations to which it has pledged long-term allegiance?
• We note, Vancouver is 10,250 miles from Johannesburg and there are no direct flights so perhaps South Africa is not a core region for Anglo anymore?

Currencies

US$1.1841/eur vs 1.1792/eur previous. Yen 146.65/$ vs 146.81/$. SAr 17.387/$ vs 17.352/$. $1.363/gbp vs $1.363/gbp. 0.667/aud vs         0.667/aud. CNY 7.109/$ vs 7.115/$.

Dollar Index 96.82 vs 97.05 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,669/oz vs US$3,689/oz previous

Gold ETFs 94.9moz vs 94.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,385/oz vs US$1,405/oz previous

Palladium US$1,165/oz vs US$1,192/oz previous

Silver US$41.7/oz vs US$42.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,100/oz vs US$7,125/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$10,016/t vs US$10,125/t previous

Aluminium US$2,700/t vs US$2,702/t previous

Nickel US$15,255/t vs US$15,405/t previous

Zinc US$2,973/t vs US$2,968/t previous

Lead US$2,002/t vs US$2,000/t previous

Tin US$34,500/t vs US$34,720/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$68.3/bbl vs US$67.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged higher after the API estimated a w/w draw of 3.4mb to crude (-1.65mb expected), as well as a 0.7mb draw to gasoline and 1.9mb build to distillate stocks.
• European energy prices edged higher as France’s nuclear generation rose 4% w/w to 73% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.
• Ithaca has priced €450m of 5.500% senior notes due 2031 at par, with a subsidiary of the Company entering into a currency swap in connection with the offering that will result in an all-in effective interest rate in USD, of ~6.7%.
• Greetings from Accra, where the Morning Energiser is attending Africa Oil Week (AOW) 2025. Please reach out to set up a meeting with David Mirzai while he is in town.

Natural Gas €32.6/MWh vs €31.7/MWh previous

Henry Hub Gas US$3.10/mmBtu vs US$3.05/mmBtu yesterday

Uranium Futures $76.2/lb vs $75.5/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$113.4/t vs US$113.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$453.0/t vs US$453.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$188.5/t vs US$186.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.5/t vs US$107.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$81,372/t vs US$81,868/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,029/t vs US$10,021/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$810/t vs US$810/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$543/mtu vs US$528/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$271/t vs US$271/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,104/t vs US$1,103/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

 Company news

Anglo American (AAL LN) 2,544p, Mkt cap £30bn – Anglo signs deal with Codelco to combine the Los Bronces and Andina mines

• Anglo American has agreed with Codelco, the Chilean state copper miner to jointly operate the Los Bronces and Andina copper mines.
• Los Bronces (Anglo) produced 172,400t of copper in cathode and concentrate last year.
• Andina (Codelco) produced 181,600t in 2024
• The deal is expected to add 120,000tpa to combined copper production
• Combining the mines may enable production of an additional 2.7mt of copper over 21 years starting after permitting, possibly by 2030.
• Anglo is also working towards ramping up the LBIP ‘Los Bronces Integrated Project’ from 2027 following approval in 2023 after environmental concerns.
• The LBIP project aims to access higher-grade ore from a new underground section to replace future lower-grade ore from the existing open pit.
• In separate news Agnico Eagle says it is not considering a counter bid for Teck Resources.

Barrick Mining (B US) $29, Mkt Cap $49bn – Fourmile study highlights 750kozpa potential

• Barrick provided an update on its Foumile project in Nevada, where it is progressing economic studies.
• Fourmile currently holds a 2024 MRE of:
  • M&I: 3.6mt at 11.8g/t Au for 1.4moz
  • Inf: 14mt at 14.1g/t Au for 6.4moz
• Barrick reported yesterday that Fourmile holds an ‘Exploration Upside’ target of 32-34mt at 15-16g/t Au for c.16moz.
• Barrick expects a 25 year LOM, throughput of 1.5-1.8mtpa for average annual production of 600-750kozpa.
• Cost of sales expected at $850-900/oz.
• Bristow states ‘“very few projects anywhere in the world today can offer this combination of grade, scale and cash flow. Fourmile is one of those rare discoveries that has the potential to reset the industry cost curve.”
• Barrick notes that ‘a significant portion of Fourmile’s mineralisation will be single refractory.’
• Fourmile mineralisation is controlled by a steeply dipping structurally controlled breccia domain, and the Company notes a strong geotechnical rock mass, representing 80% of the 2.4km mineralised extends.
• Management sees potential to expand the guided production rates, noting ‘signficant potential to expand the extent of the Fourmile style of orebodies.’
• Barrick is now planning to bring the fleet to 20 rigs and is planning 120km of directional surface drilling next year, with 370km of surface drilling and 80km of underground drilling planned by 2028 end.
• Fourmile is expected to begin production by 2029, with 34km of development planned connecting Bullion Hill and Goldrush, enabling initial test stoping.

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 3.65p, Mkt cap £31m – Additional ionic rare-earths targets in South Australia

• Cobra Resources reports that its re-analysis of historical data on two recently acquired tenements in South Australia has identified the potential to expand the resource potential of its Boland rare earths project “across two regionally extensive palaeochannel systems”.
• The studies have highlighted “Three large target zones refined for follow-up drill testing” at:

• • “Gillespie: Narlaby Palaeochannel, comprising an embayment over ~155km^2”, and at
  • “Head: Yaninee Palaeochannel, an interpreted fluvial flood plain covering ~85km^2”, as well as
  • “Stokes: Yaninee Palaeochannel, an interpreted fluvial flood plain covering ~47km²

• Today’s announcement explains that Cobra Resources has identified “Elevated REEs … [rare earth elements over] … up to 30m intervals within Pidinga and Garford formations, where broad zones of permeable geology is enabled by coarse sands, favourable for low-cost, low impact in situ recovery (“ISR”) mining”.
• In detail, “Enriched REE grades occur on channel margins, implying a geological depositional control on the absorption of ionic REEs”.
• Managing Director, Rupert Verco, said the “results demonstrate the potential that these tenements add to the Boland Project … which we believe will add considerable scale to the future Mineral Resource Estimate”.
• In future, Cobra Resources “aims to incorporate drilling across at least two of the defined target areas within an initial Mineral Resource Estimate”.

Conclusion: Analysis of historical data has identified 3 additional paleo-channels with the potential to host ionic rare-earth mineralisation near its Boland project in South Australia.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 42p, Mkt Cap £291m – Further additions to strong technical team with appointment of marketing manager

1. Empire Metals, developer of the large-scale Pitfield titanium project in WA, has appointed Michael Tamlin as Marketing Manager.
2. Michael will lead product strategy and end-user engagement and joins from Neometals where he served as Head of Lithium.
3. In addition, Empire announces that it has extended its consultancy agreement with TiPMC Consulting for strategic titanium market insights.
4. Management also highlights good progress with bulk metallurgical testwork as the Company produces concentrate for downstream processing and product samples for potential end users.

Conclusion: The appointment of a Marketing Director, alongside the extension of the consultancy agreement with industry specialists TiPMC highlight management’s focus on delivering a commercial product to market. We are reassured to read of good ongoing progress with bulk metallurgical testwork. These results, alongside the maiden Pitfield MRE, are the next major catalysts for the Empire story.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Highland Copper (HI CN) C$0.12, Mkt Cap C$88m – EXIM financing for Copperwood Project

• Highland Copper reports a non-binding LoI from the Export-Import Bank of the US.
• The LoI indicates potential debt financing of $250m to develop the permitted Copperwood project in Michigan.
• Terms:
  • Debt financing up to $250m
  • Repayment term of 11 years
• Copperwood 2023 FS
  • Post-tax NPV8 of $168m, IRR of 17.6% at $4/lb Cu and $25/oz Ag)
  • CAPEX of $391m
  • C1 costs of $1.83/lb
  • Average annual LOM payable copper production c.30tkpa
  • 2.5mtpa plant, conventional room-and-pillar mining
  • Selling copper concentrate
  • Reserves of 26mt at 1.45% Cu, 3.91g/t Ag

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 1p, Mkt Cap £36m – Interim report focusses on exploration progress in Zimbabwe

• Yesterday, Kavango Resources reported a pre-tax loss of ~US$6.1m for the six months to 30^th June 2025 (H1-2024 – US$1.7m loss) including ‘Pre-licence exploration costs’ of US$4.8m (H1-2024 – US$1.711m) and a closing cash balance of ~US$3.3m after US$8.1m of proceeds from equity issues and warrants.
• The company describes progress of its exploration of the Hillside gold project in Zimbabwe where construction has “commenced of a 50 tonne per day (“tpd”) Carbon in Pulp (“CIP”) gold processing plant at the Bill’s Luck Gold Mine” which is currently being explored with a resource drilling campaign of 4,000m of diamond drilling and 4,500m of reverse circulation drilling.
• The drilling at Bill’s Luck builds on previous core and RC drilling, including over 900m of underground coring as well as surface drilling.
• The company also describes the completion of a 2^nd phase of drilling at Nara, also in Zimbabwe, “to confirm … [the] … potential for large-scale gold mineralised system”.
• Yesterday’s announcement confirms a JORC compliant ‘Measured & Indicated’ mineral resource of ~300kt at an average grade of 0.62g/t gold hosting ~6,000oz of gold in two tailings dumps at Nara.
• In Botswana, “exploration strategy … is primarily led by geophysics” to overcome the “presence of sand cover obscuring regional geology” and where targets include “the Kalahari Copper Belt Project (“KCB”), the Kalahari Suture Zone Project (“KSZ”), and the Ditau Project (“Ditau”)”.
• Kavango Resources summarises progress saying that it “has made significant progress in Zimbabwe and achieved strategic milestones”.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango

Orion Minerals (ORN AU) A$0.02, Mkt Cap A$101m – Glencore financing term sheet

• Copper developer Orion, who hold the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine, have signed a non-binding term sheet with Glencore.
• The financing will provide $200-250m and concentrate offtake for the Prieska project.
• Financing Terms:
  • $40m in Tranche A for construction and startup of Uppers at Prieska
  • $160-210m for construction and startup of Deeps at Prieska.
  • Interest at market rates, including a step-down in rates once commercial production declared.
  • First ranking security, pari passu with other secured lenders to PCZM
• Offtake Terms
  • 100% of bulk concentrates from Uppers for 5 years
  • 100% of copper concentrates from Deeps for 10 years
  • 100% of zinc concentrates from Deeps for 10 years
  • Market TCRC charges as ‘set by large producers and large smelters.’
• Financing agreement dependent on Glencore completing ‘satisfactory due diligence.’
• PCZM DFS
  • Peak funding requirement of A$578m
  • 2.4mtpa throughput with peak annual production of 23kt Cu and 88kt Zn
  • AISC of US$2.06/lb
  • Post-tax NPV of A$568, IRR of 26%.
  • 12 year LOM on 31mt at 1.2% Cu and 3.6% Zn Deep Sulphide Resource
  • A$552m NPV8
• Management is planning a staged operation, targeting shallow underground while dewatering to build up to annual production of 22kt and 65kt in bulk concentrate.
• Company is targeting first concentrate by Christmas 2026.
• Company shareholders include: Tembo: 14.4%, Delphi: 11%, Clover Alloys 8.3%

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.03p, Mkt Cap £24m – Further testing at the Zulu lithium plant, Zimbabwe

• Premier African Minerals’ continuing testing at its Zulu lithium plant in Zimbabwe will now “focus on the optimising aspects of the flotation plant to ensure the continuous production of … [saleable] … spodumene concentrate with more than 5% Li₂O”.
• The company explains that although the “plant at Zulu has achieved Saleable Concentrate on numerous occasions … the objective of this next test is to demonstrate that the Zulu plant can now achieve this consistently”.
• Managing Director, Graham Hill, described this phase of testing as “a fundamental step in the ongoing validation process of the operating capacity of the Zulu plant”.
• He said that “Demonstrating the ability to consistently float material at grade over sustained periods is essential to ensuring that all operational aspects are aligned for the future of Zulu”.
• Mr. Hill said that the “results will provide the foundation for growth, whether through new investment or additional off-take funding, as those discussions with potential funders continue to advance”.

Conclusion: Testing at the Zulu lithium plant is now moving to establish the plant’s ability to produce saleable concentrate on a consistent and sustainable basis.

SolGold (SOLG LN) 16.4p, Mkt Cap £517m – Tandayama América drilling supports the case for early open-pit mining at Cascabel

• SolGold reports recent drilling results supporting its plans to develop early open-pit mining at Tandayama América to accelerate production from its Cascabel project in Ecuador
• The Tandayama América project is located in the Cascabel Licence around 3km north of the deeper Alpala deposit.
• The company explains that the “Tandayama porphyry system is proving to be more extensive than initially thought, with discrete higher-grade zones enveloped in a system of lower-grade mineralisation … [with the system remaining] … open at depth to the southeast of pit 1”.
• Recent results highlighted in today’s announcement include:

• • An intersection of 160m at an average grade of 0.22% copper and 0.13g/t gold reported as 0.33% on a copper equivalent (CuEq) basis from a depth of 104m in hole TAD-25-057; and
  • An intersection of 124m of “medium and low-grade mineralisation” at an average grade of 0.18% copper and 0.27g/t gold reported as 0.41% on a CuEq basis from a depth of 40m in hole TAD-25-060, including a higher-grade section of 26m averaging 0.24% copper and 0.39g/t gold (0.57% CuEq)from 120m depth; and
  • An intersection of 166m at an average grade of 0.21% copper and 0.27g/t gold reported as 0.44% on a CuEq basis from a depth of 20m in hole TAD-25-065, including higher grade sections of 14m averaging 0.28% copper and 0.56g/t gold (0.57% CuEq) from 76m depth and 74m at an average grade of 0.29% copper and 0.36g/t gold (0.61% CuEq) from 112m depth.

• “Hole 65 is located across the southern third of the conceptual north pit area, 260 m SW of the high-grade near-surface intersection in hole 58 … which ended in ore-grade mineralization” and reported an intersection of 140m at an average grade of 0.41% copper and 0.59g/t gold (0.92% CuEq) from a depth of 8m.
• Other holes, TAD-25- 059, 061 and 062, show “Broad, lower-grade zones … demonstrating the continuity of mineralisation across the conceptual pit areas”.
• Hole TAD-25-069, which is still underway, has intersected “bornite, a high-grade copper sulphide mineral”. Results are still awaited from samples of holes TAD-25-066, 067 and 068.
• The current open-pit mineral resource (November 2023) at Tandayama América hosts an ‘Indicated’ resource of 492mt at an average grade of 0.22% copper and 0.20g/t gold plus an additional ‘Inferred’ resource of 45mt at an average grade of 0.18% copper and 0.18g/t gold.
• Today’s announcement also confirms the presence of “an additional open-pittable target … [Tandayama West] … approximately 500 m west of proposed pits 1 and 2 … [in an] … area … characterised by a magnetic high with a concentric low, interpreted as a central magnetic intrusive and peripheral alteration zone”.
• CEO, Dan Vujcic, described Tandayama West as “interesting … [and said that it] … could potentially add significant life to the open pit complex, further de-risking the overall project as we embark on commencing early works at Alpala”.

Conclusion: Drilling at Tandayama América is identifying additional, near surface, mineralisation which could expand the short-term production opportunity at Cascabel as Solgold works to develop the nearby underground Alpala deposit.

Syrah Resources Limited (SYR AU) A$0.26, Mkt cap A$347m – Tesla and Syrah extend cure date on alleged offtake default for AAM samples

• Syrah Resources report agreement with Tesla to extend the ‘Cure Date’ to 15 November on the alleged default for AMM sample from Vidalia in Louisiana, USA.
• Under the offtake agreement with Tesla, Inc. Vidalia was due to supply samples of natural graphite AMM ‘active anode material’  (“AAM”) from Vidalia.
• Vidalia AMM production is targeting 11.25ktpa in Louisiana.
• Tesla had required that Syrah cure the alleged default by 16 September otherwise the Offtake Agreement may be terminated.
• Tesla and Syrah are working to cure the alleged default though Tesla appears to reserve the right to terminate the Offtake Agreement if final qualification of Vidalia AAM is not achieved by 9 February 2026.

Xtract Resources (XTR LN) 0.9p, Mkt Cap £7.7m – Expanding its antimony exploration licences in Morocco

• Yesterday afternoon, Xtract Resources reported that its 80% owned Wildstone SARL had acquired two more exploration licences in Morocco.
• The Amghas licences, which cover 32km² are valid for three years and “host multiple high-grade antimony sulphide veins, which were last mined underground in the late 1950s”.
• The announcement explains that initial exploration will concentrate around the former Amghas mine where “Geological mapping has identified vein systems extending beyond the immediate historic mine workings, in some instances connecting higher-grade Amghas veins to other historical workings located several kilometres away along strike”.
• Historic, small-scale mining focussed “only on extremely high-grade (>40% Sb) veins … [and Xtract Resources sees] … Potential for a larger mineable resource due to previously unprocessed disseminated mineralisation”.
• Executive Chairman, Colin Bird, said that the “acquisition of the Amghas Licences, presents an early potential opportunity to commence antimony concentrate production for sale into international markets, where demand for this critical metal is rising”.
• The US$105,000 acquisition of the Amghas licences adds to the company’s existing 380km² licence area covering areas of known antimony mineralisation in Morocco.

Conclusion: Xtract Resources is expanding its licence holdings in areas of historic antimony mining in Morocco.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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