SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 17th July 2024

Gold $2,475/oz surges as dollar falls after September Fed rate cut priced in

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

We regret to report the death of Terry Streeter, aged 80, an impressive and colourful mining entrepreneur from Perth, Australia

• Terry started investing in mining over 40 years ago with funds from his grocery business.
• Terry was a co-founder of Western Areas leading the business from a junior explorer to a significant nickel producer in Western Australia
• Streeter and was chairman to Corazon Mining with a Nickel-Copper-Cobalt Sulphide Project in Manitoba, Canada.

SP Angel rankings LSEG StarMine Award for most accurate forecasting in Reuters polls:

• #1 – Q2 Precious Metals & #2 – Q2 Base Metals

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) – On track to meet lower end of 2024 production guidance with net cash cost guidance raised slightly to US$1.70/lb

Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – New presentation highlights progress on both the Tiris Uranium and Häggån polymetallic projects

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Updated Presentation

BHP (BHP LN) – Robust Q4 helps deliver record FY2024 iron ore production and best copper output for 15 years

Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – Shareholders approve acquisition of 51% of White Flame Energy for its industrial gas potential

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Trading and production update for 1H24

Metals One plc (MET1 LN) – MRE doubles at the Black Schist project in Finland

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Drilling accelerates at Bibemi

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Q2 results help maintain 2024 production guidance

Gold prices ($2,475/oz) surge as Treasury yields shrug off stronger retail sales

• Gold prices seem to be gaining steam, rallying to all time highs yesterday, up $45/oz.
• Treasury yields fell to March lows despite stronger than expected retail sales.
• The Fed has been hinting at the likelihood of a rate cut, with traders now pricing in 100% in September.
• Additional Fed officials also emphasised progress on inflation, with Mary Daly stating that they are getting more confident inflation is heading to their 2% goal.

Copper prices ($9,720/t) tick higher as Chinese smelters look to cut output

• Copper prices have bounced from recent weakness, having touched $9,642/t.
• The move comes after two Chinese smelters have highlighted plans to cut output next year on weak margins.
• Chinese smelters continue to struggle with a shortage of feedstock, weighing on TCRCs, and a massive expansion of capacity.
• Daye in Hubei plans to cut smelting output by 20% next year, according to Bloomberg.
• Boatou plans to cut smelting by 40%.

Economics

US – Dovish Jerome Powell comments on the trend of slowing inflation led risk on sentiment higher yesterday.

• “What we’ve said is that we didn’t think it would be appropriate to begin to loosen policy until we had greater confidence” that inflation was returning sustainably to 2%, Powell said during an event at the Economic Club n Washington.
• “We’ve been waiting on that… And I would say that we didn’t gain any additional confidence in the first quarter, but the three readings in the second quarter, including the one from last week, do add somewhat to confidence.”
• In other news, retail sales came in ahead of expectations in June.
• Retail Sales (%mom, Jun/May/Est): 0.0/0.3(revised from 0.1)/-0.3
• Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas ((%mom, Jun/May/Est): 0.8/0.3(revised from 0.1)/0.2
• Retail Sales Control Group (%mom, Jun/May/Est):) 0.9/0.4/0.2

UK – Inflation beat see the pound trading higher this morning with traders revising their expectations for a rate cut in August lower.

• Markets now expect a ~35% chance of a rate cut this summer, down from a 50% chance before the release of inflation data.
• Services inflation raised concerns over stickier than expected nature of higher prices with the measure surprisingly ticking higher.
• CPI (%mom, Jun/May/Est): 0.1/0.3/0.1
• CPI (%yoy, Jun/May/Est): 2.0/2.0/1.9
• Core CPI (%yoy, Jun/May/Est): 3.5/3.5/3.4
• Services CPI (%yoy, Jun/May/Est): 5.7/5.7/5.6

Taiwan – President candidate Donald Trump called for Taiwan to pay for its defence guarantees.

• “You know, we’re no different than an insurance company… Taiwan doesn’t give us anything,” Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg.
• Taiwan “stole our chip business” and “should pay (the US) for defence”, Trump added.
• Comments saw shares in TSMC, the world’s largest, pulling back more than 3%.
• Separately, the Biden administration is considers triggering the foreign direct product rule (FDRP) that allows it to impose controls on foreign made products that use any amount of US technology in product manufacturing in a further escalation on Chinese chip production crackdown.
• The news comes as the US is looking to limit access of Chinese producers to technology supplied by companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding whose equipment is used in chipmaking.
• The US is also looking to limit Chinese ability to service and maintain already delivered equipment.
• Shares in Japan Electron were down 7.5% in Tokyo and ASML fell more than 6% in Europe.

Currencies

US$1.0912/eur vs 1.0895/eur previous. Yen 157.13/$ vs 158.48/$. SAr 18.108/$ vs 18.188/$. $1.300/gbp vs $1.297/gbp. 0.674/aud vs 0.674/aud. CNY 7.266/$ vs 7.266/$.

Dollar Index 104.11 vs 104.29 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,469/oz vs US$2,437/oz previous

Gold ETFs 81.8moz vs 81.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,010/oz vs US$994/oz previous

Palladium US$975/oz vs US$947/oz previous

Silver US$30.91/oz vs US$31/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,600/oz vs US$4,600/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 9,678/t vs US$9,742/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,407/t vs US$2,446/t previous

Nickel US$ 16,600/t vs US$16,675/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,867/t vs US$2,923/t previous

Lead US$ 2,195/t vs US$2,182/t previous

Tin US$ 33,030/t vs US$33,060/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$83.9/bbl vs US$84.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were flat after the API reported a 4.4mb w/w draw to US crude stocks.
• European energy prices were also stable with French nuclear reactor operating levels rising 2% w/w to 66% of 61.4MW capacity and Gazprom reporting stable supply of 42.4mcm/d (~1.5bcf/d) via the Ukraine.

Natural Gas €32.8/MWh vs €32.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.4/lb vs $85.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$107.2/t vs US$108.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$512.7/t vs US$513.2/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$114.3/t vs US$112.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$138.0/t vs US$137.9/t

Coking coal Dalian Exchange futures price US$216/t vs US$216.2/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$26,625/t vs US$26,625/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$49,352/t vs US$49,615/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,495/t vs US$11,492/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$990/t vs US$990/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$330/mtu vs US$333/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$470/t vs US$470/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 26.75/kg vs US$26.75/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$315/t vs US$314/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,397/t vs US$1,397/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$66.6/t vs US$69.6/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$300.0/t vs US$300.0/t

Battery News

Used EV sales soar in UK as prices fall

• Second-hand EV sales have gone up 63% in H1 2024 compared to last year.
• As early adopters of EVs shift to newer models, prices for second-hand EVs have fallen to the same levels as those for a wide range of used petrol cars, according to data from Auto Trader.
• For example, the average price of a two-year-old BMW 4 Series was £31,663 in June, compared with £25,958 for a Tesla Model 3 of the same age and £25,807 for a two-year-old Polestar 2.
• Although EV sales still only account for ~2% of the used car market in the UK, almost 10% of second-hand vehicles under five years old are fully electric, up from just 1% in 2020.

Positive sales could indicate EV death has been exaggerated

• New reports suggest that fears of plummeting EV sales were premature.
• Kelley Blue Book reports 330,463 EVs sold in the US during Q2 2024, an 11.3% increase from Q2 2023 and 23% higher than Q1 2024.
• EVs comprised 8% of all new-vehicle sales in Q2, surpassing the previous record of 7.2% set a year earlier.
• Federal credits up to $7,500 and automaker cash rebates and low financing offers have spurred sales.

Tesla Cybertruck US’ best-selling electric truck in Q2 2024

• Tesla Cybertruck has become the top-selling electric truck in the US for Q2 2024.
• Kelley Blue Book data shows Cybertruck sales surpassed the Ford F-150 Lightning in Q2.
• Tesla reportedly sold 8,755 Cybertrucks from April to June, compared to 7,902 Ford F-150 Lightnings.
• Ford F-150 Lightning sales increased from 4,466 in Q2 2023 to 7,902 in Q2 2024.
• Rivian R1T sales dropped from 4,424 to 3,309 units in the same period.
• GMC Hummer EV sales (including pickup and SUV) jumped from 47 to 2,929 units.

Malaysia EV sales up 112% to 6,617 units in H1 2024

• According to data from the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), EV sales in Malaysia increased by 112% in H1 2024 to 6,617 units from 3,117 units in 1H 2023.
• In 2023, Malaysia sold 10,159 EVs, compared to 2,631 in 2022 and 278 in 2021.
• 3,079 Tesla vehicles were registered in H1 2024, not included in MAA data. Total EVs sold in H1 2024, including Tesla’s, reached 9,696 units.
• Government incentives have significantly boosted EV adoption, with fully-imported EVs being exempt from import duty and excise duty until December 31, 2025, and locally-assembled EVs being exempt from excise and sales tax until December 31, 2027.
• 15,884 hybrid vehicles were sold in Malaysia in the first half of 2024.
• Total sales of EVs, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and BEVs, reached 22,501 units in the first half of 2024.
• Previous years’ sales were 38,214 units in 2023, 22,619 units in 2022, and 8,153 units in 2021.

Nio sees 50^th battery swap station launched in Europe

• Nio has reached 50 battery swap stations in Europe, with more than half located in Germany (17) and Norway (15).
• Users in Europe have completed more than 63,000 battery swaps, and Nio has provided around 3GWh of power through swaps, according to the company.
• Nio opened the first battery swap station in Europe in 2022 and are starting to accelerate the number of stations it is building with seven built this month

Tesla secures $375m Megapack contract

• Tesla Energy will supply Megapacks to Akaysha Energy’s Orana Battery Energy Storage System (BESS).
• The Orana project is located in New South Wales within Central West Orana’s Renewable Energy Zone (REZ).
• The new Tesla Megapack contract will help build a 415 MW/1660 MWh battery, one of the largest four-hour batteries in the world.

Company News

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) 2,047p, Mkt Cap £21bn – On track to meet lower end of 2024 production guidance with net cash cost guidance raised slightly to US$1.70/lb

• Copper production of 155,300t during the 3 months to 30^th June brings year to date output to 284,700t (2023 – 295,500t) at a net cash cost of US$1.94/lb after gold and molybdenum by-product credits (2023 – US$1.75/lb) leaves Antofagasta’s 2024 production guidance unchanged at 670-710,000t although the company says that the result will be at the lower end of the range.
• The company says that YTD output is 3.7% below the equivalent in 2023 “representing a balance of lower production from Centinela concentrates, and higher production at Centinela cathodes and Los Pelambres”.
• Gold production of 66,900oz YTD is around 22% lower than the 86,200oz achieved last year “reflecting lower gold grades at Centinela … [while] … Year to date molybdenum production was 5,200 tonnes, 6% higher than in the same period last year due to higher ore processing rates at Los Pelambres”.
• The Los Pelambres mine produced 77,200t of copper at a net cash cost of US$1.26/lb after allowing for by-product credits arising from 10,400oz of gold and 2,000t of molybdenum production bring YTD output to 132,500t of copper, 18,900oz of gold and 4,200t of molybdenum at a net cash cost of US$1.21/lb.
• Comparative production at Los Pelambres in H1 2023 was 128,500t of copper, 19,600oz of gold and 3,400t of molybdenum at a net cash cost of US$1.17/lb of copper.
• On a YTD basis, Centinela produced 93,000t of copper, including 43,600t in concentrates and 49,400t as cathode at a net cash cost of US$2.48/lb after crediting 48,000oz of gold and 1,000t of molybdenum production.
• In H! 2023, Centinela produced 109,200t of copper (74,200t in concentrate and 35,000t of cathode) at a net cash cost of US$1.88/lb net of 66,700oz of gold and 1,500t of molybdenum.
• The company explains that lower grades at Centinela and “harder ores mined … in line with the mine plan” contributed to lower copper in concentrate output while cathode output benefitted from “higher grades and ore throughput rates … [as well as] … higher recovery rates”.
• The Autocoya mine contributed 20,700t of copper production during Q2 bringing YTD output to 40,300t at an average cash cost of US$2.58/lb (H1 2023 – 38,000t at US$2.72/lb). The company says that the 5% decline in costs resulted from “depreciation of the Chilean peso and reduced unit costs for key consumables”.
• At Zaldivar, attributable production of 9,400t of copper in Q2 brought YTD output to 18,900t at a cash cost of US$2.97/lb (H1 2023 – 19,800t at US$2.96/lb) “reflecting lower grades, offset by higher ore throughput rates following the completion of maintenance in Q1 2024”.

Conclusion: Production of 284,700 of copper during H1 keeps Antofagasta on track to meet the lower end of its 2024 production guidance of 670-710,000t with cost guidance net of by-product credits increased to US$1.70/lb from the US$1.60/lb previously indicated.

*An SP Angel mining analyst has previously visited a number of Antofagasta’s copper mines

Aura Energy* (AURA LN) 7.5p, Mkt Cap £63m – New presentation highlights progress on both the Tiris Uranium and Häggån polymetallic projects

(Aura Energy hold 100% of Tiris Uranium and 100% of the Häggån Project in Sweden, Häggån hosts 2.5bnt of vanadium, SOP ‘sulphate of potash’ and uranium resource)

• Aura Energy has published an updated presentation with details on the Tiris uranium and Häggån polymetallic projects.
• https://auraenergy.com.au/investor-centre/investor-presentations/
• Tiris Uranium (Mauritania)
• The Tiris Uranium project is seen as a low-risk, shallow, free digging mining operation with no blasting, crushing or grinding required.
• The mine should produce 2mlbs pa of a high-grade leach feed of ~1,743ppm U₃O₈ over 17 years with significant potential to expand beyond the current resource of 91.3mmlbs U₃O_8.
• The leach feed should grade 1,997ppm U₃O₈ over the first five years with just 0.5mtpa throughput through the leach process plant which is similar to Paladin’s Langer Heinrich in Namibia.
• Total capacity for 3.5mlbs pa of U₃O₈ as a yellowcake precipitate using a ACE ‘Adelaide Control Engineering’ plant licenses to produce uranium with Orano NSP supporting seaborne logistics.
• Offtake negotiations are said to be near complete with leading US nuclear utilities.
• Project funding has started with debt, other strategic investors and equity
• FID, Final Investment Decision is due by Q1 2025.
• Production could start within 18-months of financing in 2026 / 2027.
• Capex: US$230m
• Häggån polymetallic (Sweden)
• Production envisaged of 10,000tpa of V₂O₅ vanadium pentoxide with potential for 1mlbs pa of U₃O₈ uranium
• Häggån offers a post tax IRR of 28-49% on a hefty initial capital cost of $456m.
• Earlier this year Sweden’s Climate and Environment Minister has announced the launch of an investigation to abolish the country’s ban on uranium mining.
• Sweden has six nuclear reactors producing around a third of all Sweden’s electrical power.
• Terrafame (formerly Talvivaara) started recovery of uranium at the Sotkamo mine in Finland this year and is currently the EU’s only uranium producer.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Aura Energy

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 30p, Mkt cap £11m – Updated Presentation

CLICK FOR PDF

• Beowulf provides an updated presentation: CLICK LINK
• The presentation highlights the Company’s dual-pronged strategy to position itself as a future beneficiary of Europe’s green transition.
• At Gállok, Beowulf has highlighted its route to delivering a PFS by 2Q25, following recent focus on permitting process.
• Beowulf is set to submit their Environmental Permit application in Spring 2025.
• Gállok holds the potential to deliver a high-premium iron ore concentrate suitable for the DRI/EAF steelmaking route.
• At Grafintec, the Company is aiming to deliver an EIA in 3Q24, before beginning work on the Environmental Permit with an expected FID in 2025 following the delivery of a DFS.
• Grafintec’s Anode plant holds the potential to deliver 20ktpa CSPG and the Company is currently updating the PFS for the project.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining

BHP (BHP LN) 2,206p, £111bn – Robust Q4 helps deliver record FY2024 iron ore production and best copper output for 15 years

• Reporting operating results for the year to 30^th June 2024, BHP ‘s CEO. Mike Henry. highlights record iron ore production and the highest copper output for 15 years as well as the completion of the sale of the Blackwater and Daunia metallurgical coal operations in Australia.

• Iron ore operations in increased by 1% to a record 260mt (FY 2023 – 257mt) with next year expected to deliver 255-265.5mt.
• Among the key achievements in the Western Australian operations 255mt output highlighted in today’s announcement were completion of the ramp-up of the South Flank operations to full 80mtpa capacity along with port debottlenecking “reflecting strong supply chain performance”.
• The South American iron ore operations of Samarco saw a 5% increase to 4.7mt “as a result of higher concentrator throughput” with FY.  Guidance for FY2025 production at Samarco is in the range 5.0-5.5mt.
• “The second concentrator at Samarco is expected to come online during Q3 FY25, increasing production capacity to approximately 16 Mtpa (100% basis) of pellets once fully ramped up”.
• BHP’s copper operations delivered a 9% increase in production to 1.865mt (FY 2023 – 1.717mt), meeting guidance of 1.72-1.91mt, with higher feed grades at Escondida, improved throughput at Spence and the successful integration of Oz Minerals’ Carapateena mine in South Australia all contributing to growth.
• The company expects FY 2025 copper output in the range 1.845-2.045mt
• Metallurgical coal output declined by 23% to 22.3mt “as a result of increased stripping to improve supply chain stability and restore depleted inventory positions which arose from extended weather impacts and labour constraints over recent years, and the divestment of Blackwater and Daunia”.
• In FY 2025, metallurgical coal output is expected to be in the range 16.5-19.0mt and the company says that in “the next five years, we expect to increase production to between 21.5 and 22.5 Mtpa … once BMA is operating with sustainable inventory levels and strip ratios normalise”.
• Energy coal production in NSW “increased … [by 8% to 15.4mt] … due to strong operating performance across the year as improved weather and labour availability enabled an uplift in truck productivity”.
• The company says it expects to produce 13-15mt of energy coal in FY 2025 and that it is continuing to “progress our plans to cease mining at the asset in FY30”.
• The WA Nickel operations, which were temporarily suspended earlier this month in response to a supply glut driven by low-cost supply from Indonesia, produced 81.600t (FY 2023 – 80,000t) and the company says that during “the temporary suspension, we will invest ~US$300 m per annum in the facilities to enable a potential restart”.
• BHP says that Phase 1 of its US$5.7bn Jansen potash project in Canada is now 52% complete with initial production expected by the end of calendar year 2026.

Conclusion: BHP has delivered strong production growth for iron-ore and copper following a strong Q4 performance.  Copper output is expected to continue to grow int FY 2025 and iron ore guidance is expected to match or exceed 2024 in FY2025.

Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) 0.41p, Mkt cap £6m – Shareholders approve acquisition of 51% of White Flame Energy for its industrial gas potential

(Bluejay Mining holds 100% of the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects and all its Greenland prospects)

• Bluejay Mining report shareholder approval on the acquisition of 51% of White Flame Energy plus an option to acquire the remaining 49% on the same terms.
• Around 95% of Bluejay shareholders accepted the proposal to pay £1.4m in Bluejay shares for the 51% stake.
• White Flame Energy Limited holds 100% of three potentially large scale industrial gas, natural gas and liquid hydrocarbon rich exploration and exploitation licences, onshore, East Greenland.
• Bluejay also plans to chance it’s name.
• Management continue to work on the Dundas ilmenite (titanium) project on the West side of Greenland where drilling shows high-grade titanium in hard rock sill beneath the existing beech sands resource.

• • 11.12% ilmenite (5.2% TiO2) – average grade is nearly twice the grade seen in the overlying mineral sands resource of 117mt grading 6.1% ilmenite.

• Finland: Management have also identified potential for hydrogen and helium as described in work done by the Geological Survey of Finland on Bluejay’s Outokumpu licenses.
• Production from any helium or hydrogen discoveries in Finland would likely be prioritised with logistics and permitting likely to be easier than in the East of Greenland.
• Disko: investors are waiting on an update on the Disko exploration project where KoBold Metals have been using AI to process and analyst an enormous amount of information gained in the 2022 field season.
• KoBold have >60 active projects across three continents and is backed by Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Ray Dalio, BHP, Mitsubishi and many others.
• New name: Bluejay will change its name to 80 Mile Plc (80M LN) to reflect a new beginning and a search for what is over the horizon. The name change will become effective in the next week or so.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Bluejay Mining. The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland and the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects in Finland.

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 324p, Mkt Cap £287m – Trading and production update for 1H24

• Kenmare reports 2Q24 production results of 346.6kt HMC, up 7% yoy.
• The Company excavated 10.4mt ore over the period at 3.84% grade, down 5% yoy and 8% qoq.
• H1 excavated ore at 19.6mt at 3.97% grade, up 7% and down 5% respectively yoy.
• Ilmenite production up 9% yoy and 16% qoq at 238.6kt.
• Rutile production up 32% yoy at 2,500t. Supported by drawdown of intermediate stocks and improved recoveries.
• An increase in ore excavation alongside improved recoveries offset the grade decline.
• The improvement in recoveries is a result of the additional of better mining conditions at WCP C and adding clean water to spiral separation.
• Kenmare states it is on track to achieve 2024 guidance and sees improved forecast ore grades in H2.
• Kenmare is currently investing $341m in the WCP A upgrade and transition to Nataka, which is Kenmare’s largest ore zone.
• The Company has deferred $38m of CAPEX into subsequent years.
• The WCP B upgrade is expected to boost its capacity by 40%.
• Kenmare held $58.5m in cash at 30^th June 2024, down from $71m in December. No debt vs $50.3m in December.
• Mineral Sands Update:

• • Kenmare reports lower received prices for ilmenite in Q2 but H2 came in above expectations.
  • Pigment producers at record output in China and Europe and the US reporting an uptick in operating rates.
  • Market remains well supplied from Chinese producers in African countries.
  • Suspension of Sierra Leone operations and Kenya resource depletion supporting long term expectations of supply constraints.
  • Zircon demand improving from ceramic appetite increase.

Metals One plc (MET1 LN)– 1p, Mkt cap £3.3 – MRE doubles at the Black Schist project in Finland

• Yesterday, Metals One reported that an initial ‘Inferred’ mineral resource estimate at its P5 exploration target has more than doubled the estimated resources of its broader Black Schist project in Finland.
• JORC compliant ‘Inferred’ resources of 29.0mt at an average grade of 0.18% nickel, 0.08% copper, 0.01% cobalt and 0.33% zinc at the P5 target in addition to the existing resource (also Inferred) at the R1 area (28.1.0mt at an average grade of 0.19% nickel, 0.10% copper, 0.01% cobalt and 0.38% zinc) bring the overall ‘Inferred’ resource of the Black Schist project to 57.1mt at an average grade of 0.18% nickel, 0.09% copper, 0.01% cobalt and 0.35% zinc.
• Maps contained within the July 2023 Competent Person’s Report contained withing the Company’s AIM Admission document show the P5 target located in the 200km long Kainuu Schist Belt in the Haapaselkä area of east central Finland and approximately 140 km north of the R1 deposit.
• CEO, Jonathan Owen, said that “this increased resource base will underpin a Preliminary Economic Assessment of the project which we expect to commence in the near future”.
• He described the new estimate as “a major milestone for the Company as we transition to project development”.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.35p, Mkt cap £14m – Drilling accelerates at Bibemi

• Oriole Resources provides an update from their Phase 5 drilling programme at Bakassi Zone 1, Cameroon.
• The Company is drilling 7,060m with JV partner BCM International.
• 10 vertical holes have been completed at the previously reported BZ1 MRE area, over 1,244m.
• Initial results from these holes are expected in 3Q24.
• The drilling has intercepted multiple shallow-dipping quartz and quartz-tourmaline veins up to 2.4m wide, within the current pit design.
• 23 further inclined and four vertical holes are yet to be drilled in the MRE zone, which are intended to expand and upgrade the inferred MRE.
• 25 further holes are planned over two targets which lie to the northeast and southwest, along strike.

Conclusion: Oriole has now completed 10/62 holes of its Bibemi drilling programme over 7,060m in Cameroon. The Drilling is intended to upgrade and grow the Bakassi Zone 1 MRE whilst adding additional ounces through step out exploration. The identification of additional quartz/quartz-tourmaline veins is encouraging and raises potential for further mineralisation in the existing pit shell.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) 68p, Mkt Cap £50m – Q2 results help maintain 2024 production guidance

1. Serabi Gold reports a 6% increase in Q2 2024 production of 9,003oz of gold (Q2 2023 – 8,518oz) which it describes as “a second consecutive quarter exceeding 9,000 ounces”.
2. The core Palito operation contributed 4,251oz (Q1 2023 – 6,332oz) while increasing output from Coringa contributed 4,752oz (Q1 2023 2,186oz).
3. Today’s announcement confirms that the “Coringa orebody continues to perform very well, with the uppermost levels 320m, 290m and 260m in production and development. Of the lower levels 225m is fully developed with level 195m in active development”.
4. It also confirms that “The main ramp will intersect level 165m next month. As a result, Coringa now has close to two full levels developed ahead of stoping, and with a third about to commence next month this is a very strong position”.
5. The plant at Palito “processed the highest volume since 2021, however grades were below budget … due to the lower than planned mined grades coming from the bulk mining of the Chico da Santa (CDS) sector”.
6. Reassuringly the company says that “Palito grades have improved in May and June, and we anticipate Palito grades to return to the 6-7g/t Au range seen in the first 9 months of 2023”.
7. Serabi Gold is maintaining its FY2024 production guidance of 38-40,000oz of gold.
8. CEO, Mike Hodgson, explained that “with the classification plant progressing according to plan at Coringa I am optimistic for the second half of 2024”.
9. Mr. Hodgson also confirmed a “forthcoming PEA for Coringa during Q3 and … [said that Serabi Gold was looking forward to] … seeing the ore sorter operational in Q4”.

Conclusion: Serabi Gold has reported quarterly gold production of over 9,000oz in each of the last two quarters keeping it on track to achieve published full year guidance of 38-40,000oz of gold production.  The new Coringa mine is increasingly contributing to production providing over 52% of Q2 production compared to ~43% in Q1.

*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil

SP Angel rankings LSEG StarMine Award for most accurate forecasting in Reuters polls:

No1 – Q2 2024 – Precious Metals

No2 – Q2 2024 – Base Metals

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return