SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 15th January 2025

Gold presses higher as China bond yields continue to slide

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

SP angel received great news last week from the LSEG StarMine commodities forecast polling team

• SP Angel – 1^st in LSEG StarMine Precious Metals poll for 2024
• SP Angel – 2^nd in LSEG StarMine Base Metals poll for 2024

Asante Gold (ASE CN) –Bibiani underground feasibility study

Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) – Licence renewals in Botswana

Cora Gold (CORA LN) – Mineral resource update for Sanankoro, Mali

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – Homase ramping up

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (formerly GreenRoc Mining) (GROC LN) – EIFO support for financing of equipment and services for Amitsoq Graphite project in Greenland

Hummingbird Resources (HUM LN) – Malian mining license conditions update

Platinum Group Metals (PTM CN) –Financing discussions continue for Waterberg PGM project

Robex Resources (RBX CN)  –Updated Kinero Gold Project Reserves and Feasibility Study

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Strong final quarter delivers 13% annual production increase in 2024 with further increases expected in 2025

Gold ($2,686/oz) presses higher as China bond yields continue to slide

• Gold has strengthened overnight, supported by a combination of a weaker US dollar and lower China bond yields.
• We have been noticing a tight correlation between the China 10 year yield, currently sitting at 1.64%, and gold prices over the past year or so.
• Traditionally, gold prices were closely correlated to US real yields, which historically pushed US investors into gold when they slide and attract haven investors away from bullion when they climb.
• However, gold’s strong rally last year from $2,000/oz to highs of $2,800/oz closely followed the China 10 year’s slide from 2.5% to today’s levels.
• China bond yields have been sliding on deflation concerns, rising trade surpluses and weak domestic consumption.
• This trend has combined with Chinese retail investors seeking investment alternatives from the property market and downbeat equities.
• Additionally, China’s central bank, alongside Russa and Turkey predominantly, added significant holdings in 2024 to their reserves.
• This reflected another trend in the gold market, of countries, often those less amicable with the US, seeking to diversify their foreign reserve holdings away from the dollar, benefiting gold.
• These factors may explain why the recent jump in US yields, with the 10 year rising to 4.8% from 3.65% in three months, had a limited impact on gold prices.
• That being said, we wonder whether a reversal in US yields, combined with the sustained rally in China government bonds, may support another leg higher in gold prices.
• Yesterday’s softer-than-expected PPI data took some wind out of the US Treasury sell off, with the 10 year sliding slightly and the dollar weakening.
• Gold may now be vulnerable to a reversal in current slide in China government bonds but may benefit from a weaker dollar should it fade following Trump’s inauguration.

China steel stockpiles slide as iron ore imports continue to rise

• China steel mill inventory levels fell 16% in December to 12.4mt.
• Steel production fell 5.3% in mid December to 1.87mtpd (Bloomberg).
• Meanwhile, Australia iron ore shipments from Australia’s key Port Hedland terminal hit a record in 2024, despite the steel slowdown.
• Brazilian exports have also been rising, but like Port Hedland, fell slightly in December.
• China imported 1.2bnt of iron ore in 2024, with iron ore stockpiles sitting at 14.7mt in Jan vs 12mt same period last year.

Chinese EV brands disappearing almost as fast as they started with <50 EV manufacturers remaining

• CEO of Xpeng stated “From 300 start-ups, only 100 of them survived
• Now there are less than 50 EV manufacturers with the CEO of Xpeng expecting there to be just seven survivors in the next 10 years.
• Overproduction enabled by loose lending and monetary policies and excessive competition inevitably lead to below cost sales.
• But given the generally higher cost of EVs to ICE vehicles and the subsidies on offer we wonder how long the Chinese State and other backers of the 250 now-bust companies can paper over their losses.
• The only real solution for the backers of the EV companies is consolidation which may require some heavy-handed tactics by the lenders and other authorities.
• Given the crisis in the Chinese property market and a likely crisis in the EV sector we suspect China is in a bad place when it comes to tariff negotiations.
• In the great game of Mahjong with the US we suspect China may look to delay its moves and let Trump suffer the inflationary impact of his tariffs.
• China’s hand may be strengthened by weakening the Yuan and helping commodities to rise in US dollar terms outside China, remember input inflation is low in China as they control so much processing capacity.
• Promotion of schemes to stimulate domestic consumption will offset lost sales into the US, stimulate local services businesses and generally appease a degree of frustration in population.
• Most of the Chinese EV makers continue to report heavy losses so it is still to be seen which companies cash positions enable them to keep making such significant losses.
  • Xpeng’s Q3 ’24 losses were approx. $157m
  • NIO reported net losses of around $700m in Q3 2024, despite quarterly sales records.
  • Zeekr also delivered a record number of vehicles in Q3 ’24, but posted net losses of $250m.
• BYDs domination of the domestic market and record year of sales saw their Q3 net profit reach $1.6bn.

Economics

US – Authorities are to tighten sales of advanced chips by TSMC and other producers into China.

• Latest regulations will encourage producers like TSMC, Samsung and Intel to increase due diligence and scrutinise more its customers.
• The measure comes on reports that TSMC chips were found to make their way to the blacklisted Huawei Technologies.
• TSMC stock fell more than 2% on the news.
• Producer prices climbed at a slower than anticipated pace in December a report released yesterday showed.
• A welcome news ahead of consumer prices report due later today.
• Estimates are for CPPI to have climbed to 0.4% (+0.1pp, %mom) and 2.9% (+0.2pp, %yoy) in December.
• Earnings season also picks up with large banks reporting today including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Goldmans.
• PPI (%mom, Dec/Nov/Est): 0.2/0.4/0.4
• PPI (%yoy, Dec/Nov/Est):  3.3/3.0/3.5
• Core PPI (%yoy, Dec/Nov/Est): 3.5/3.5(revised from 3.4)/3.8

China eyes $89bn grid investment in continued support of renewable generation

• Bloomberg reports State Grid Corp of China is set to invest $89bn in 2025 in CAPEX.
• The Group operates c.80% of China’s energy supply.
• Funding will be directed at power lines and smaller networks to integrate the rapid rollout of wind and solar projects in recent years.
• We expect this to provide continued support to Chinese copper demand as property construction continues to slow.

Japan – BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda strengthened expectations for a potential rate hike at the next week meeting highlighting rising confidence over wage increases among local firms.

• The yen appreciated nearly 1% on the news and is trading below the 157 mark.

Germany – The economy contracted 0.2% in 2024 following a 0.3% drop in the previous year.

• Outlook remains weak with the Bundesbank forecasting growth of just 0.2% in 2025 with another contraction not ruled out.
• Weak overseas demand, high borrowing costs, elevated energy costs and a threat of US tariffs are all weighing on sentiment.

UK – Inflation slows down for the first time in three months in December in a welcome respite for monetary authorities.

• Consumer prices increased 2.5%yoy (-0.1pp), in line with BOE forecasts released in November.
• Additionally, a closely followed services sector measure eased to 4.4% (-0.6pp) to the lowest since March 2022.
• 10y gilt yields pulled back 8bp on the news.
• The pound dipped 0.4% against the US$ but recovered its losses since then and is little changed trading around 1.22.
• CPI (%mom, Dec/Nov/Est): 0.3/0.1/0.4
• CPI (%yoy, Dec/Nov/Est): 2.5/2.6/2.6
• Core CPI (%yoy, Dec/Nov/Est): 3.2/3.5/3.4
• Services CPI (%yoy, Dec/Nov/Est):4.4/5.0/4.8

Currencies

US$1.0299/eur vs 1.0272/eur previous. Yen 157.04/$ vs 157.43/$. SAr 18.895/$ vs 18.943/$. $1.221/gbp vs $1.224/gbp. 0.620/aud vs 0.621/aud. CNY 7.332/$ vs 7.330/$

Dollar Index 109.089 vs 109.441 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,683/oz vs US$2,672/oz previous

Gold ETFs 83.2moz vs 83.2moz previous

Platinum US$938/oz vs US$962/oz previous

Palladium US$946/oz vs US$945/oz previous

Silver US$30.1/oz vs US$29.8/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,650/oz vs US$4,650/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,111/t vs US$9,156/t previous

Aluminium US$2,564/t vs US$2,591/t previous

Nickel US$15,880/t vs US$15,805/t previous

Zinc US$2,811/t vs US$2,879/t previous

Lead US$1,944/t vs US$1,945/t previous

Tin US$29,135/t vs US$29,955/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$80.2/bbl vs US$80.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged lower after the EIA forecast downward pressure on oil prices from global output growth over the next two years, as the API also reported a 2.6mb w/w draw (-3.5mb exp) in US crude inventories.
• The EIA’s January STEO report forecast that global oil demand growth would increase from 0.9mb/d in 2024 to 1.3mb/d in 2025 (104.1mb/d) and 1.1mb/d in 2026, driven by consumption growth in non-OECD countries, which is expected to outpace growth in global liquids supply of 1.8mb/d in 2025 (104.4mb/d) and 1.5mb/d.
• European natural gas prices edged lower as France’s nuclear generation increased 1% w/w to 90% of the country’s 61.4MW maximum capacity, representing its highest operational capacity level since early 2019.
• The EIA expects US Henry Hub natural gas prices to rise from an historically low average of $2.20/mmBtu in 2024 to average $3.10/mmBtu in 2025 and $4.00/mmBtu in 2026, driven by demand from LNG export facilities.
• Media reports that since the start of last week at least six Asia-bound LNG tankers have diverted to Europe to take advantage of higher prices, with netbacks of ~$10/mmBtu currently available to US exporters.

Natural Gas €47.0/MWh vs €47.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $73.8/lb vs $73.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.6/t vs US$100.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$483.1/t vs US$483.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$194.5/t vs US$196.8/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$116.0/t vs US$115.2/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$55,307/t vs US$55,111/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,025/t vs US$9,958/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$795/t vs US$795/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$338/mtu vs US$338/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$435/t vs US$435/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.6/lb vs US$4.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$25.3/kg vs US$25.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$290/t vs US$290/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,071/t vs US$1,071/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$300.0/t vs US$300.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,725.0/kg vs US$2,725.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$385.0/kg vs US$385.0/kg

Battery News

Outgoing Biden administration finalising rules on Chinese vehicles

• The rules that are being finalised this week will effectively bar nearly all Chinese cars and trucks from the US market, as part of a crackdown on vehicle software and hardware from China.
• In September, a ban was proposed on key Chinese software and hardware in connected vehicles on US roads, with software prohibitions to take effect in the 2027 model year and those on hardware in 2029.
• The regulations would also bar Chinese car companies from testing self-driving cars in the US.
• Some changes in the final rules are being made, such as exempting vehicles heavier than 10,000 pounds from the requirements, which would let China’s BYD continue to assemble electric buses in California.
• The Department of Commerce has also said the bans would not cover Chinese software developed before the new rules took effect, so long as it was not being maintained by a Chinese firm.
• This will potentially allow GM and Ford to import some Chinese-made vehicles.

Pony AI begins autonomous driving tests on Beijing highways

• Autonomous driving startup Pony AI has begun robotaxi testing on Beijing’s highways with no safety officer in the driver’s seat.
• Pony AI is one of the first companies to receive permit for the test, which initially requires a safety officer in the front passenger seat.
• The permitted test hours cover a range of different working conditions including morning and evening rush hour, daytime peaks, and late-night dark light, according to the company announcement.
• Pony AI also revealed that it was allowed to have following vehicles in convoys without a safety officer in the driver’s seat during self-driving truck fleet tests.

Company News

Asante Gold (ASE CN) C$0.99, Mkt Cap C$496m –Bibiani underground feasibility study

• Ghana gold developer and producer Asante provide results from the Bibiani underground study.
• DFS uses underground reserves of 11.9mt at 2.36g/t Au using a reserve price of $2,500/oz.
• Mining will use long-hole, transverse mining methods and will use waste rock backfill, with cut and fill stoping proposed for the Walsh orebody.
• Access to be provided by a trackless decline system using the uncompleted Greg Hunter decline currently extending 630m. A conveyor will be used.
• Asante is working on increasing sulphide recoveries from the upgraded Bibiani Process Plant, expecting 92% recoveries.
• Initial CAPEX of US$116mt, ‘net of pre-completion revenue from 33koz.’
• Feasibility study envisages gold production of 831koz at an AISC of US$1,035/oz.
• Post-tax NPV5 estimated at US$516m for IRR of 71% and a five year LOM.
• Company is progressing the Bibiani open pit plan and is expected to select a contractor by 3Q25.
• Underground mining is expected to begin late 2025, financed through cash flows from the open pit operation.

Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) 0.17p, Mkt Cap £1.9m – Licence renewals in Botswana

1. Botswana Diamonds reports the renewal of prospecting licences in Botswana covering its 3.5-hectare KX36 kimberlite pipe containing an indicated resource of 17.9Mt of 35 carats per hundred tonnes (“cpht”) and an additional ‘Inferred’ resource of 6.7Mt at 36 cpht.
2. The renewal of Prospecting Licences 224/2007 and 169/2019, which in addition to the KX36 kimberlite also contain “several high-grade geophysical anomalies where authorisation has been granted for drilling” extends tenure by two years until 31^st December 2026.

Cora Gold (CORA LN) 2.3p, Mkt Cap £10.4m – Mineral resource update for Sanankoro, Mali

• Cora Gold has announced a new mineral resource estimate for its Sanankoro project in southern Mali.
• Today’s announcement reports an ‘Indicated’ resource of 19.0mt at an average grade of 1.13g/t gold (689koz of contained gold) plus an additional ‘Inferred’ resource of 12.4mt at an average grade of 0.89g/t gold (354koz) increasing the previous 920koz resource to 1.04moz.
• The new estimate “follows the addition of 2,669m of drilling (50 Reverse Circulation (‘RC’) drillholes) to the Sanankoro MRE dataset; this drilling was primarily to de-risk the MRE and convert near surface Inferred Mineral Resource material to higher-confidence Indicated” classification.
• The update includes “a remodelling at Zone A and Selin” as well as “a decrease in the cut-off grade to 0.3 g/t Au” from 0.4 g/t Au and “an increase in the gold price used for the pit shell of US$2,400/oz … [from US$1,900/oz] … which has increased the volume of material inside the reporting pit”.
• Around 72% (22.8mt) of the total resource tonnage of the new estimate is oxide ore, with a further 23% (7.1mt) described as transitional ore and the balance of around 6% (1.9mt) described as fresh ore.
• The largest individual part of the new estimate is the Selin Zone containing approximately 41% (430koz) of the total gold within 1mt of ore at an average grade of 1.11g/t gold.  The ‘B Zone’ contains a further 24% (250koz) with ‘A Zone’ contributing a further 20% (210koz) of the total.
• Contributions from the ‘B North’ and ‘C’ Zones represent an additional 7% (78koz) and 6% (65koz) respectively.
• The company indicates that “further mineral growth that may be achievable” from a combination of additional pit optimisation, follow up of additional mineralisation identified in a single drillhole at Zone B and a “further pipeline of oxide drill targets”.
• The new estimate will support “an updated Definitive Feasibility Study (‘DFS’) in 2025”.
• In what we assume may be an allusion to the issues currently faced by other gold mining companies in Mali, CEO, Bert Monro, said that Cora Gold is “proactively engaging with the Malian government regarding its application for a mining licence, which, once granted, will allow mine construction to commence”.

Conclusion: The new mineral resource estimate lifts Sanankoro to over 1moz, with around two-thirds classified as ‘Indicated’. We look forward to the project DFS later this year for an insight into the details of the project.

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 1.2p, Mkt Cap £10m – Homase ramping up

• The Company released an operational update for the Homase Gold Mine in Ghana.
• The team ramps up production rates with 48ktpm of agglomerated ore stacked on heaps during months of November and December.
• Stacking rates are expected to be maintained over the coming months.
• Civil engineering regarding the construction for Cells 6 and 7 are ongoing.
• The Company poured 416oz of gold dore in December.
• Production is expected to reach 1koz per moth run rates in 1Q25.

*SP Angel acts as broker to Goldstone Resources

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (formerly GreenRoc Mining) (GROC LN) 1.96p, Mkt Cap £3.83m – EIFO support for financing of equipment and services for Amitsoq Graphite project in Greenland

• GreenRoc receive a non-binding LoI ‘Letter of Interest’ from the EIFO ‘Export and Investment Fund of Denmark’ for funding on the Amitsoq Graphite Project in South Greenland.
• The EIFO generally issues AAA-rated guarantees, backed by the Danish State, to support lending programs.
• The EIFO consolidates the three Danish state funds, the Vaekstfonden (The Growth Fund), EKF Denmark´s Export Credit Agency (EKF) and the Danish Green Investment Fund and funds transactions and projects globally.
• EIFO guarantees and support will help gain finance approval for mining equipment and related services such as FLSmidth a/s and other Danish suppliers.
  • “EIFO has extensive and positive experience working with FLSmidth on projects worldwide.”
• FLSmidth has been working on the processing of a bulk sample from Amitsoq in their US facilities over the past year.
• GreenRoc and EIFO to work up a detailed financing proposal whereby a EIFO guarantee should support the mine financing subject to normal due diligence.
• We would expect the EIFO to help with finance for the pilot flotation plant, test work and design and costing of the graphite ore beneficiation plant.
• GreenRoc submitted its application for an Exploitation Licence for the Amitsoq Graphite Project in South Greenland last September.
• Management reported the exploitation license had been approved in November enabling the issue of the application for 35 days of public pre-consultation.
• The process should enable GreenRoc to fast-track the restart of the historic Amitsoq graphite mine once the necessary finance is approved.
• The mine has ‘Project’ status by the international MSP ‘Mineral Security Partnership’, a collaboration of 14 countries, inc. the US, UK and EU which should help catalyse public and private investment in responsible critical minerals supply chains.
• Amitsoq PFS (11 July 2024):
  • NPV of US$621m vs $545m – post tax
  • IRR 26.5% vs 25.3%
  • Capex $340m vs $321m
  • Opex $1,872/t vs $2,211/t
  • Production 80,000tpa of concentrate – remains the same
  • Production 39,700tpa active anode material – remains the same
  • Includes: onsite production of de-ionised water and construction of a plant for the production of nitrogen.
• Potential to cut OPcosts to US$1,662 using sodium hydroxide (NaOH) instead of hydrofluoric acid (HF) could increase Capex cutting post-tax NPV8 to US$601m with an IRR of 23.7%.
• Graphite purification: Testing to achieve >99.9wt% graphite from alternatives to hydrofluoric acid leaching have been done with positive results.
• Almost any alternative route to the use of hydrofluoric acid should reduce capital and operating costs while improving ESG and reducing risk within the project.
• China graphite export restrictions: starting December 1, 2023 restrictions apply to natural, synthetic graphite and related products.
• Chinese graphite exports collapsed 77.66% for flake graphite and 64.54% yoy from January-February 2024 highlighting the impact of the restrictions following a massive 161.9% yoy rise in November 2023 before the restrictions came in force.
• China controls more than 90% of the world’s spherical graphite and anode active and produces >60% of the world’s flake graphite and ~80% of global synthetic graphite.

Conclusion:  GreenRoc is moving fast towards the financing and rapid reopening of the Amitsoq Graphite mine in Greenland. Recent rhetoric from Donald Trump may help hasten Denmark’s support for new projects in the region.

Hummingbird Resources (HUM LN) 2.6p, Mkt Cap £43m – Malian mining license conditions update

• The Company signed an agreement with the government of Mali regarding the 2023 Mining Code application.
• The Company will make a settlement payment of $16.4m to authorities in two equal tranches with the first one to be made in five working days of signing and the second due by 30 June 2025.
• The Company will be waiving VAT credit claims for the same amount as well settling all tax and customs matters prior to 31 December 2023.
• The government committed to renew key exploration permits including an extension to the Komana Mining Perrmit perimeter.
• The government is raising its ownership in the Company’s Malian subsidiary to 20%, up from 10%, with immediate effect.

Platinum Group Metals (PTM CN) C$1.82, Mkt Cap C$187m –Financing discussions continue for Waterberg PGM project

• South African PGM developer PTM reports quarterly results to November 30^th 2024.
• The Company is developing the bulk underground palladium and platinum Waterberg Project with Implats, Mnombo and HJM.
• PTM is working on offtake agreements for the Waterberg concentrate to enable development financing arrangements.
• The Group is in discussions with Ajlan and the Ministry of Investment of Saudi Arabia for a PGM smelter and base metal refinery in Saudi Arabia

Robex Resources (RBX CN) C$2.4, Mkt Cap C$361m –Updated Kinero Gold Project Reserves and Feasibility Study

• Robex Resources, who are developing the Kinero gold project in Guinea, report an update to their feasibility study.
• The Company is targeting first pour in 4Q25, expecting to close a debt facility in 1Q25.
• The updated feasibility study saw reserves increase 46% to 1.41mt.
• Average annual gold production increased 54% to 139koz for a nine year LOM.
• Pre-production CAPEX up 52% to US$243m, with post-tax NPV5 at US$322m using a $1,800/oz gold price, 36% IRR.
• At $2,330/oz gold price, post-tax NPV increases to US$647m, for 61% IRR.
• The project uses a 5mtpa nominal capacity CIL plant.
• Average grade mined expected at 1g/t Au, with 2:0 stripping ration.
• Average grade processed of 0.97g/t Au, with average recoveries of 86%.
• AISC forecast at US$1,066/oz.
• The Company is progressing construction with civil works and CIL tank erection alongside clearing the tailings dam basin.
• Long lead items purchased and first pour expected by end of 2025.

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) 125.5p, Mkt Cap £96m – Strong final quarter delivers 13% annual production increase in 2024 with further increases expected in 2025

• Serabi Gold reports production of 10,022oz of gold during the 3 months to 31st December bringing full year production for 2024 to 37,250oz (2023 – 33,153oz).
• The Q4 production is described as the highest quarterly output “in the past 5 years”.
• Company guidance for 2025 production is in the range 44-47,000oz of gold.
• The record quarterly production reflects the processing of ~52kt of ore at an average grade of 6.2g/t (Q3 2024 – ~54kt at an average grade of 5.59g/t gold).
• The company explains that the “increase in grade is driven by the return to selective mining methods from the bulk mining methods previously utilised in the Chica da Santa sector … [as well as] … increased grades mined in the Barrichello zone which is expected to contribute significantly to 2025 production”.
• Serabi Gold also confirms that the “Coringa orebody continues to perform well. Production was focused on the levels of 260m and 225m, with development now complete or nearly complete on the levels of 225m, 195m, and 165m whilst the Serra ramp now approaching 130m”.
• CEO, Mike Hodgson, summarised 2024 by saying that throughout the year “gold production improved and we expect this to continue into 2025”.
• He explained that “Whilst our growth is clearly Coringa focused, it has been very welcome news to see Palito grades improve significantly during the fourth quarter, with mined and milled grades exceeding 6.10 g/t gold. It is not a coincidence that this grade improvement has occurred as we have been able to cease the more dilutive mechanised mining in the Chico da Santa zone, and returning to a selective mining method”.
• He also explained that “Grade improvements are also due to some exceptional grades coming out of the Barrichello zone which is expected to be contributing significantly to 2025 gold production”.
• Mr. Hodgson also welcomed the commissioning of the classification plant at Coringa which enables Serabi Gold to pre-concentrate “mined ore at Coringa and … [to truck] … this preconcentrated product to the Palito Complex for further processing, ~200km to the north by road”.

Conclusion: The best quarterly gold output for five years during Q4 helped drive a 13% increase in annual gold production with guidance indicating a further increase of between 17-25% in 2025 to 44-47,000oz.

*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return