SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 14th May 2025

Copper holds higher ground as China copper inventories continue to slide

£20bn heading for UK growth companies and infrastructure as major pension funds sign new Mansion House Accord

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Confirmation of Graphite Anode Materials Plant PFS and Kallak update

Europa Metals Limited (EUZ LN) SUSPENDED – Suspension of AIM trading

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) – Project and funding update

Metals One (MET1 LN) – Gold exploration opportunity in Nevada’s Carlin Trend

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Update Note – Mbe delivers 87m at 1.36g/t Au

Rome Resources (RMR LN) – Further results from Mont Agoma drilling, DRC

Talga Group (TLG AU) – Binding anode offtake with Nyobolt

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Update Note – A Foothold in Elephant Country

Many thanks to the organisers of the 121 Mining Investment conference in London this week

• The quality of investors at the show was very impressive with a good number of new funds looking for ideas
• The range of new funds and expert private investors looking at mining was particularly impressive at the event
• Our team we will be forwarding details on a range of investment ideas to interested investors
• The Strategic Mine Finance panel discussion was particularly interesting

£20bn heading for UK growth companies and infrastructure as major pension funds sign new Mansion House Accord

• 17 major pension funds have agreed to sign a new ‘Mansion House accord’ with UK government.
• The accord will release up to £50bn of funds with half to be allocated for UK assets.
• The deal allocates at least 10% of workplace pensions into UK firms and infrastructure projects to boost the economy.
• Much of the money should be allocated to startups and private companies.
• Legally, the definition of private companies include companies listed on AIM.
• We understand that, in the UK only companies listed on the main board of the LSE are legally considered to be listed.
• The new accord doubles the previous target set in 2023 of 5% of pension fund assets to be allocated into the UK.
• The accord should see a minimum of 5% of defined contribution default funds invested into private assets by 2030 vs the 2% currently invested into private markets.
• AIM is legally considered to be a ‘private market’.

Conclusion: The new accord is a major boost for growth companies in the UK.

We suspect the timing is particularly good for the repatriation of pension fund assets out of US technology stocks and back into the UK

Copper ($9,450/t) holds higher ground as China copper inventories continue to slide

• Trump’s moderation of his tough stance on tariffs coupled with his trip to the Middle East and negotiations with China is lifting copper.
• China is also seen as consuming more metal than expected with a shortage of physical copper potentially developing in the Far East.
• Physical copper has been drawn into the US by high premium prices and issues relating to the export of copper scrap may also be having an impact.

Robert Friedland – Meeting with Trump and MBS in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

• It was interesting to see Robert Friedland meeting with MBS and Trump in Riyadh this week.
• Friedland is a great first mover for the mining sector
• Ivanhoe Electric formed a 50/50 jv with Ma’aden in Saudi Arabia in 2023 for an initial 5-10 year partnership
• Ma’aden invested $126m into Ivanhoe Electric for a 9.9% stake at the time.
• Ivanhoe moved its HQ to the US from Canada and contributed $66m into the jv.
• Moxico Resources*, a UK-based company is also looking to develop the Khnaiguiyah zinc-copper project with Ajlan Bros & Holding Company.

*A SP Angel mining analyst holds shares in Moxico Resources

Economics

US – Consumer prices inflation came in a softer than expected both on headline and core basis, a welcome reading for the central bank aiming to get the timing for the next rate cut right.

• Core CPI came in at 0.2%mom, less than 0.3%mom forecast, marking the third consecutive softer than expected monthly reading.
• The CPI report highlighted that prices of goods including new cars and apparel did not see the kind of increase that markets had expected by now, Bloomberg writes.
• This suggests that importers and retailers are absorbing some of the extra costs.
• However, the report also showed that services sector recorded softer performance in discretionary spending like travel and recreation reflecting weaker consumer sentiment.
• The agreement to de-escalate the trade war reduced inflationary pressures projections, although, expectations are still for inflation to remain above the Fed 2% target.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher while rate fell slightly following the release do the report.
• CPI (%mom, Apr/Mar/Est): 0.2/-0.1/0.3
• CPI (%yoy, Apr/Mar/Est): 2.3/2.4/2.4
• Core CPI (%mom, Apr/Mar/Est): 0.2/0.1/0.3
• Core CPI (%yoy, Apr/Mar/Est): 2.8/2.8/2.8

China – Credit expanded slower than expected in April.

• Aggregate financing increased CNY 1.2tn versus CNY 1.4tn forecast.
• Lenders offered CNY 285bn in new loans in April, down on CNY 700bn expected.
• The data does not account for a cut RRR and reverse repo rates early in May.

Currencies

US$1.1192/eur vs 1.1246/eur. Yen 147.08/$ vs 145.23/$. SAr 18.238/$ vs 18.176/$. $1.331/gbp vs $1.326/gbp. 0.645/aud vs 0.640/aud. CNY 7.213/$ vs 7.256/$

Dollar Index 100.90 vs 100.41 previous

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,237/oz previous vs US$3,342/oz.

Gold ETFs 88.7moz previous vs 88.7moz.

Platinum US$997/oz previous vs US$988/oz.

Palladium US$958/oz previous vs US$989/oz.

Silver US$32.9/oz previous vs US$32.8/oz.

Rhodium US$5,375/oz previous vs US$5,375/oz.

Base metals:

Copper US$9,624/t previous vs US$9,427/t.

Aluminium US$2,525/t previous vs US$2,418/t.

Nickel US$15,778/t previous vs US$15,541/t.

Zinc US$2,744/t previous vs US$2,643/t.

Lead US$1,987/t previous vs US$1,969/t.

Tin US$32,686/t previous vs US$31,698/t.

Energy:

Oil US$66.6/bbl previous vs US$63.5/bbl

Henry Hub Gas US$3.5/mmBtu vs US$3.70/mmBtu yesterday

• Crude oil prices edged higher on hawkish Iranian comments that outweighed API estimates of an unexpected 4.3mb/d w/w build (-2.4mb/d exp) to US crude and draws of 1.4mb to gasoline and 3.7mb to distillate stocks.
• European energy prices were stable with France’s nuclear generation rising 2% w/w to 67% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.
• Equinor has drilled two appraisal wells about 20km east of the Troll A platform which indicate that the reservoir is suitable for injection and storage of CO2, as part of the 20mtpa Smeaheia CCS project offshore Norway.
• TotalEnergies has signed an agreement with HitecVision for the sale of 50% of Polska Grupa Biogazwa for an enterprise value of €190m, which has over 450GWh of biogas production capacity in Poland.

Natural Gas €35.6/MWh vs €34.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $69.8/lb vs $69.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.5/t vs US$99.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.5/t vs US$469.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$187.5/t vs US$188.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.0/t vs US$104.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$57,065/t vs US$56,966/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,760/t vs US$8,877/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$735/t vs US$755/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$373/mtu vs US$363/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$287/t vs US$287/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,513/t vs US$1,513/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Battery News

Tesla to resume shipping parts from China to US for Cybercab and Semi following tariff deal

• Tesla plans to start shipping parts from China to the US for the production of Cybercab and Semi trucks from the end of this month. (Reuters)
• The automaker suspended shipping to the US following the raising of tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%.
• Following the deal between US and China to lower the rate of tariffs between the two countries, Tesla will resume the shipping of parts from China.
• Tesla plans to begin trial production of both vehicles in October and mass production in 2026.

China issues first rare earth magnet export permits

• China has issued export permits to at least four rare earth magnet producers including suppliers to Volkswagen.
• Baotou Tianhe Magnetics, which makes the magnets used in electric and hybrid car motors, received a licence to supply Volkswagen in late April, according to sources.
• Zhongke Sanhuan received at least one permit, Baotou INST Magnetic and Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material were also granted at least one permit, according the sources.
• Export licenses are granted for each customer and it is unclear whether all clients of the four firms have been cleared by the Chinese government.
• In response to US tariffs China had imposed restriction on the export of seven rare earths.

Company News

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 12.5p, Mkt cap £5m– Confirmation of Graphite Anode Materials Plant PFS and Kallak update

Kallak Update

• Beowulf has published an update on the Kallak Iron Ore Project.
• The Company is currently advancing the high-grade iron ore concentrate project’s PFS.
• Metallurgical testwork has shown the possibility to produce a high-value magnetite concentrate through purely physical beneficiation at 68.8%, before potential upgrade to 70% via LIC technology.
• LOM strip ratio low at 0.5:1.
• The Company is looking to ship the concentrate from Narvik Port, which is ice-free and capable of receiving capesize vessels.
• Beowulf is likely to use a slurry pipeline to transport the product to railhead which limits impact on reindeer herding, water and the wider environment.

GAMP Update

• Beowulf’s subsidiary Grafintec has confirmed delivery of their Finnish Graphite Anode Materials Plant PFS.
• The Plant will benefit from a strategic location in Finland, where its economics are enhanced by low-cost renewable energy, skilled workforce and a supportive government, in addition to access to key European market.
• The Plant will be developed in two phases, producing 25ktpa of CSPG at first, before ramping up to 75kt in Phase 2.
• Phase 1 economics suggest an NPV8 of €924m, an IRR of 37% and initial CAPEX of €225m.
• Phase 2 CAPEX stands at €675m, supported by free cash flow from Phase 1.
• The plant will achieve a battery-grade graphite product of 99.99% Cg.
• OPEX is expected to be competitive at €2,381/t.
• Feedstock is expected to be supplied by a third-party, with ‘decades of proven-track record.’
• Limestone will be produced as a by-product, presenting an alternative commercial opportunity.
• Beowulf and Grafintec management have published an interview with more information: LINK

Conclusion: Beowulf’s has now successfully delivered the GAMP PFS, which outlines a low-cost, large-scale CSPG project to feed into the growing EU EV battery chain. Additionally, the Company is working towards delivering the PFS for Kallak with modifications made to lower OPEX and accelerate permitting.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining

Europa Metals Limited (EUZ LN) SUSP – Suspension of AIM trading

• Europa Metals reports that, having been unsuccessful in its efforts to identify a suitable project since the disposal of its Toral project in Spain and in its efforts to finance the proposed acquisition of the Tynagh lead/zinc/copper/silver project in Ireland, its shares have now been suspended from trading on London’s AIM market.
• The company confirms that over “the last six months, the Board has reviewed a range of opportunities for the Company … [but ] … has not been able to identify a suitable opportunity with which it could have confidence on raising the required funds for both the reverse takeover itself and working capital going forward”.
• In these circumstances, “the Europa Board has resolved to proceed with the return of the assets of the Company to its shareholders. The Company is currently receiving taxation advice regarding the most efficient and expedient route for this to happen”.
• Last month, Europa Metals announced the disposal of a part of its shareholding in Denarius Metals which it acquired on the November 2024 sale of its Toral zinc / lead /silver project in the Spanish region of Castilla y Leon, and disclosed that it still held ~5.5m Denarius shares which, at yesterday’s closing price of C$0.70 would be worth around C$3.85m or ~ £2m.

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) A$0.11, Mkt Cap A$139m – Project and funding update

• The Company reports a receipt of additional funding proposals for the Kangankunde Rare Earth Project in Malawi.
• Proposals (non binding) received come in the form of Commercial Bank debt, Nordic Bond and Offtake Prepayments:
  • US$30m Senior Secured Term Loan Facility from Ecobank Malawi, a non binding term sheet for a 5y facility with 18m grace period;
  • Senior Secured Bond from a leading European investment bank with a target 60/40 D/E split.
  • Offtake Prepayment finance received from commodity traders and end users.
• This is separate to the non binding term sheet agreed with Gerald Group for US$50m  in December 2024.
• Design & Construct contractors have been shortlisted to three names with the contract to be signed in the coming weeks.
• Meetings with government officials are being held to finalise the Mining Development Agreement (MDA).
• Updated FS is nearing completion.
• Cost cutting programme in process.
• Product samples provided to potential customers with 40% of stage 1 production under contract.
• Existing FS envisaged Stage 1 running at 450ktpa ~3% REO feed to produce 15.2ktpa of concentrate containing 8.2ktpa REOs and 1.6ktpa NdPr.
• The project designed as gravity and magnetic separation facility without flotation to produced monazite concentrate,
• US$40m capex and $2.92/kg REO FOB opex forecast.

Metals One (MET1 LN) 0.40p, Mkt Cap £26m – Gold exploration opportunity in Nevada’s Carlin Trend

• Metals One reports that it has conditionally agreed the acquisition of an exploration lease in Nevada’s Carlin gold belt.
• The acquisition covers 40 unpatented mining claims covering ~800 acres (around 32 hectares) on the Swales Gold Property which is located “approximately 13 miles northeast of Nevada Gold Mines’ Carlin Complex, the single largest gold-producing complex in the world” operated in joint venture between Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining.
• Today’s announcement confirms that a further “99 mining claims on trend with Swales have been identified which can be staked and added to the Lease with no additional lease payment”.
• Initial exploration “is expected to consist of: reconnaissance prospecting; geological mapping; surface sampling of outcrops, old workings and mine dumps; and the mapping relocation of historical workings on the property … [followed by] … a follow-up ground-based geophysical surveying programme”.
• Chairman, Craig Moulton, explained that the Swales property has been “Held by private interests for most of its history … [and] … remains very underexplored with minimal modern-day exploration”.
• Today’s announcement explains that a favourable geological setting consisting of a “window to the lower plate rocks known to contain the gold deposits at the Nevada Gold Mines open pits and underground workings is exposed on the property”.
• MetalsOne has “agreed to acquire the Seller’s rights under such exploration Lease … [currently held by Nevada Canyon Gold] … with option to purchase agreement in respect of Swales from the Seller for US$100,000 in cash on completion of the Conditional Acquisition and the grant of a 2% net smelter royalty over Swales”.
• The option agreement provides for the purchase of “Swales from the Owner for US$750,000, payable in either cash and/or equity of the Company at the election of the Owner. The exercise period for the option is for 10 years commencing on 27 December 2021, with the right to extend for two further additional terms of 10 years each”.
• Mr. Moulton commented that “the analogous geology of Swales to nearby mines, the exploration opportunity combined with record high gold prices is incredibly exciting”.

Conclusion: The Swales property sits in a similar geological setting to major operating gold mines in Nevada’s Carlin Trend – future exploration will verify whether it hosts a viable gold deposit.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.2p, Mkt Cap £8m – Update Note – Mbe delivers 87m at 1.36g/t Au

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• We have prepared an update note on Oriole Resources following more highly encouraging drill results from their ongoing Phase 1 drill programme at Mbe, where they are being funded by mining contractor BCM International.
• This week’s drill results were reported from two holes, with highlights including:
• MBDD008
  • 86.5m at 1.36g/t Au from 22m (inc. 39m at 2gt Au, 6m at 2.24g/t Au and 3m at 2.32g/t Au
  • 8.5m at 2.25g/t Au from 8.2m
  • 6m at 0.56g/t Au from 115m
  • 1.1m at 1.34g/t Au from 140m
  • 1m at 3.62g/t Au from 231m
• MBDD007
  • 24m at 0.45g/t Au from 194m (inc. 3m at 1.27g/t Au)
  • 9m at 0.56g/t Au from 81m (inc. 3m at 1.09g/t Au)
  • 4m at 0.57g/t Au from 106m (inc 1m at 1.32g/t Au)
• Whilst it is too early to suggest an economic deposit is present at Mbe, Monday’s results go some length to enhance the mineable potential of the project.
• Mbe drilling to date has yielded considerable zones of bulk-tonnage gold mineralisation, at low-to-medium grades.
• However, hole MBDD008 shows that there remains considerable prospectivity for high grade gold mineralisation to be hosted within the wider envelopes of bulk-tonnage ore.
• The current drilling programme is now 60% complete, with Oriole drilling 3,912m over 12 holes. Results from holes MBDD009-011 are expected later this quarter.
• Drilling to date has now returned 125 gold-bearing intersections over the first eight holes completed

Conclusion: We expect Oriole to re-rate as the market wakes up to what is increasingly looking like an economic discovery at Mbe, with further higher-grade intercepts like MBDD008 offering ‘game-changer’ potential. The delivery of the Mbe MRE in 3Q25 will be a key catalyst for Oriole.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Rome Resources (RMR LN) 0.31p, Mkt Cap £17.7m – Further results from Mont Agoma drilling, DRC

• Rome Resources reports intersections of copper and zinc mineralisation in its recent drilling at the Mont Agoma prospect in North Kivu Province, DRC.
• The company comments that the results provide supporting evidence for its “zonation model with shallower copper and zinc transitioning into tin at depth – that the Board considers akin to well-known, established tin projects like San Rafael in Peru and South Crofty in the UK, both of which started as copper mines, passed through a transition zone of tin and copper until both were ultimately only mining tin”.
• The results highlighted in today’s announcement are from holes MADD-024 and 026 where:
  • Hole MADD-024 intersected 14.8m at an average grade of 0.67% copper from a depth of 59.1m as well as 13.4m averaging 1.26% copper from 109m depth and 14.5m at an average grade of 1.57% copper from 174m depth; and
  • Hole MADD-026 intersected 54m at an average grade of 3.41% zinc from a depth of 113m as well as 20m averaging 1.23% copper from 193m depth.
• The announcement confirms that visible tin mineralisation averaging 0.13% tin was observed over a 27.8m wide interval from a depth of 157.2m in hole MADD-024 and that similar observations of visible tin mineralisation were recorded over an interval of 9.5m averaging 0.12% tin from 174m depth in hole MADD-026 which also intersected 5.5m averaging 0.29% tin from 193m depth.
• Rome Resources explains that the tin intersections seen in hole MADD-024 and that in hole MADD-026 are “consistent with the zonation model … [with mineralisation] … typically hosted within three sub-parallel structures that widen with depth”.
• The announcement also confirms that “Copper and zinc … [have been] … confirmed across a 500m strike and >200m width … [and that] … Deeper tin targets … [are] … now being drilled in … [a] … short 3,000m campaign”.
• Describing the results so far as “highly encouraging”. CEO, Paul Barrett, confirmed that initial ‘Inferred’ mineral resource estimates for both Mont Agoma and the nearby Kalayi prospects are underway with results “expected in the near term”.

Conclusion: The latest drilling results from Mont Agoma will contribute to an initial MRE and are confirming the company’s exploration model that shallow copper and zinc mineralisation passes into tin mineralisation at depth with the mineralised structures also tending to become wider at depth.

Talga Group (TLG AU) A$0.4, Mkt Cap A$189m – Binding anode offtake with Nyobolt

• The Company signed a binding offtake agreement with Nyobolt for its Talnode-C graphite anode material from its Vitaangi Anode Project in Sweden.
• Nyobolt, a UK based battery manufacturer, tested and validated the Talnode-C as a feedstock for its proprietary fast charging battery technology.
• Nyobolt will buy ~3,000t of Talnode-C at a fixed price for an initial term of four years starting from 13 May 2025.
• Talga will supply Nyobolt with anode product from its Electric Vehicle Anode (EVA) demonstration plant in Lulea and the balance coming from its commercial size plant in Lulea.
• Commercial scale plant construction is expected to start in 2026 subject to FID.
• The offtake is subject to commercial production milestones with a potential to renegotiate terms should volumes are not achieved.
• Nyobolt is reported to have secured over $150m in contracts so far.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.05p, Mkt Cap £1.7m – Update Note – A Foothold in Elephant Country

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• We released an update note on Tertiary Minerals on Monday.
• Tertiary holds five strategically positioned licences in Zambia, which has recently seen a resurgence in both mine-level investment and earlier-stage exploration.
• Tertiary’s assets are surrounded by major miners including First Quantum and Barrick, having secured a strong foothold in country before the increase in mineral exploration focus following the election of President Hakainde Hichilema in 2021.
• Tertiary has been bolstered by the recent management addition of Dr Richard Belcher, who has extensive experience with early-stage exploration portfolios, having been a senior consulting geologist at Altus Strategies.
• Additionally, Tertiary has made strong progress in advancing its Nevada licence package, particularly Brunton Pass. Recent drilling has led management to believe the licence may host a buried porphyry, which will require deeper drilling and potentially a JV partner.

• However, Zambia’s aim to boost copper production from 0.7mt to 3.2mt by 2032, and a number of large producing operations hungry for satellite resources, has triggered increased valuations for copper exploration companies with strategically located land packages

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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