SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 8th July 2025

Copper resumes upward path as dollar ticks lower while Chilean production recovers

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) – US$0.75m technical assistance grant received

Conroy Gold and Natural Resources (CGNR LN) – Additional gold anomalies identified in Ireland’s Longford-Down massif

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – MRE drilling complete

Koryx Copper (KUS CN) –Drilling results from Haib, Namibia

Metals One (MET1 LN) – Exploration of US projects favoured over Finnish acquisitions

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) – Mumbezhi Phase 2 drilling resuslts

Royal Gold (RGLD US) –Acquisition of Sandstorm and Horizon Copper

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Drilling imminent at Mushima North polymetallic project

Copper ($9,861/t) resumes upward path as dollar ticks lower while Chilean production recovers

• Copper prices have moved marginally overnight, turning green this morning after the dollar resumed its downtrend.
• Meanwhile, Chile has seen copper output jump for the period in May.
• Whilst supply from DRC has been disrupted on Ivanhoe’s seismic activity damage at Kamoa, Chile has ramped up output on improved ore quality and operational efficiency.
• PWC is warning ‘around half of every country’s copper supply is at risk by 2050’ owing to climate change threats.
• PWC estimates 25% of Chile’s copper production faces disruption today, 75% within a decade and 90-100% by 2050.
• We are watching Western smelter capacity, which is facing a wave of closures from elevated energy and labour costs alongside diminishing smelting fees.
• Major Chinese expansion in smelting capacity has seen several smelters go into care and maintenance this year on low TCRCs, with Sinomine pausing operations at the Tsumeb plant in Namibia on ore shortages.
• The smelter’s CEO reported that there is a ‘substantial overcapacity’ in smelters, which has ‘led to a shortage of copper concentrate, placing pressure on smelters worldwide.’
• Glencore is demanding Australian government support for its Mount Isa smelter in Australia.
• Reuters Benchmark copper concentrate smelter charges fell from $80/t in 2024 to $21/t in 2025. (Reuters)

Rare Earths in China – BBC report on “The price of the rare earth metals the world buys from China“

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-66cdf862-5e96-4e6e-90b8-a407b597c8d9

• Unfortunately, your SmartPhone or Electric Vehicle simply won’t work nearly so well without the REEs coming from these mines. Ask Tesla, they tried non-permanent magnet motors.
• Weaponisation of REEs by China has been increasing in recent years with the CCP tightening controls over REE mines with new restrictions, quotas and the enforced consolidation of many small-scale miners and processors.
• CCP officials also slowed mining quotas last year to 5.9% yoy growth vs 21.4% yoy growth in 2023. Illegal exports have also been restricted.
• So, for consumers who are willing to return to the dark ages, we suggest not buying electronics which contain REEs. Ps that excludes the Sony Walkman which contains samarium-cobalt magnets !
• Alternatively, why not invest in the great Western companies which are working to produce REEs more cleanly and efficiently from waste and residue materials.

• • Mkango Resources* – REEs from waste disk drives etc.. in the UK
  • Ionic Rare Earths – REEs from waste wind farm magnets in Belfast, UK
  • Rainbow Rare Earths – REEs from gypsum residues from phosphate mining, in South Africa and Brazil

• Each of these companies is processing REEs at pilot plant scale using, cleaner hydrometallurgical processes.
• We look forward to the scaling up of REE processing and for these companies to set new standards in the recovery of REE oxides for industrial use and consumer electronics.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker for Mkango Resources.

Tungsten APT prices look set to rise further on low downstream inventories and high concentrate prices

• Chinese traders expect tungsten APT prices to rise further on low inventory levels and rising ore concentrate prices.
• Producer inventories fell 86% yoy in May
• The price of the benchmark intermediate tungsten product APT ‘ammonium paratungstate’ had risen ~21% over the last year to US$425/metric tonne unit (mtu) and currently stands at around 15% above the levels six months ago.
• Tungsten is designated as a ‘Critical Mineral’ in the US, EU, UK, Canada, Australia, Brazil, South Korea, India, Japan and China. Which dominates world tungsten supply controlling with over 80% of the market with at least 25 processing plants producing the intermediate product compared to 3 in the US, with Japan, India and Austria each having a single plant.

IGTV: Trading Experiences with Angeline Ong: Talk starts 2:16 into the video: 

Economics

US – President Trump sent tariffs warnings letters to 14 countries threatening to reinstate punitive reciprocal levies on trading partners from August 1 should trade deals fail to be agreed.

• Reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries were paused in April for a period of 90 days and were due to come into force on July 9.
• An executive order was released by the administration yesterday saying that reciprocal tariffs would now go into effect after midnight August 1.
• The White House has agreed just three trade pacts with the UK, China and Vietnam.
• On Monday, Trump sent letters to Japan and South Korea threatening  25% tariffs  from August 1 while also announcing higher levies on >10 other countries.
• S&P and Nasdaq closed 0.8% and 0.9% lower yesterday with futures trading slightly higher this morning.

EU – The block is planning to conclude preliminary trade deal with the US this week locking in a 10% rate beyond August 1 deadline.

• Separate reports suggested that the US offered a deal that would keep the 10% baseline levies with exemptions for sensitive sectors.

UK – The government is considering increases to taxes on the rich to close a growing UK fiscal hole. (FT)

• Former leader Lord Neil Kinnock called for a 2pp tax on assets over £10m estimating it could raise more than £10bn a year.

Australia – The central bank surprised markets by keeping rates unchanged at 3.85% opting for a wait-and-see approach.

• “The Board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis,” the central bank said.
• The A$ spiked higher on the announcement.
• Markets expected a cut and a total of two before year end taking the cash rate to 3.35%.

Currencies

US$1.1760/eur vs 1.7470/eur previous. Yen 146.06/$ vs 145.17/$. SAr 17.739/$ vs 17.769/$. $1.364/gbp vs $1.361/gbp. 0.654/aud vs 0.651/aud. CNY 7.170/$ vs 7.173/$

Dollar Index 97.24 vs 97.22 previous 

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,332/oz vs US$3,304/oz previous

Gold ETFs 90.5moz vs 90.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,379/oz vs US$1,372/oz previous

Palladium US$1,122/oz vs US$1,122/oz previous

Silver US$36.8/oz vs US$36.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,525/oz vs US$5,500/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,877/t vs US$9,783/t previous

Aluminium US$2,590/t vs US$2,564/t previous

Nickel US$15,150/t vs US$15,080/t previous

Zinc US$2,703/t vs US$2,607/t previous

Lead US$2,049/t vs US$2,045/t previous

Tin US$33,520/t vs US$33,737/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$69.6/bbl vs US$68.2/bbl previous

• Energy prices edged higher after Yemen’s Houthi rebels renewed their attacks on vessels sailing through the Red Sea, reviving market concerns for a potential disruption to global shipping routes.

Natural Gas €33.8/MWh vs €33.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $74.9/lb vs $77.4/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$102.0/t vs US$102.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$458.6/t vs US$459.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$177.0/t vs US$179.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.0/t vs US$114.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$62,901/t vs US$62,064/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,689/t vs US$8,657/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$660/t vs US$640/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$428/mtu vs US$428/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.0/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$289/t vs US$290/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,095/t vs US$1,096/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg 

Company News

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) 3.93p, Mkt Cap £13m – US$0.75m technical assistance grant received

• Blencowe Resources reports that it has received a further US$0.75m as part of the US$5m technical assistance grant from the US International Development Finance Corporation for its Orom Cross graphite project in Uganda.
• The funds have been released following the recent completion of infill drilling as well as other milestones leading to “finalising the Definitive Feasibility Study … [including completion of] … all infrastructure scope – power, roads, water, communications and camp”.
• The company confirms that the “final tranche of $0.25 million will be paid upon completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study”.
• The recently completed drilling is expected to “deliver an updated JORC Resource Statement” which, based on the drilling results which expanded the mineralised footprint, is likely to be larger than the current “JORC Indicated & Inferred Mineral Resource of 24.5Mt @ 6.0% TGC (Total Graphite Content)”.
• The latest drilling identified graphite mineralisation at greater depths than in the existing resource with a relatively limited number of intersections deeper than 100m at both the Beehive deposits and at the Northern Syncline located ~3km northwest of the Beehive deposit.
• Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce, said that the “latest tranche of funding from the DFC brings us closer to unlocking significant value at Orom-Cross. Their continued support is a strong endorsement of the project’s potential and strategic importance”.

Conclusion: Completion of infill drilling at the Orom Cross project has triggered the release of a further US$0.75m of grant support from the United States International Development Finance Corporation. The additional funds should help maintain momentum as the company works towards an update of its mineral resource estimate and a Definitive Feasibility Study.

Conroy Gold and Natural Resources (CGNR LN) 4.5p, Mkt Cap £2.5m – Additional gold anomalies identified in Ireland’s Longford-Down massif

• Conroy Gold reports that regional scale sampling has identified a further 5 areas of gold anomalism along the northeast trending Skullmartin trend in the Longford/Down massif.
• The additional anomalies extend the overall trend to “over 30km” in length with the Clarebane, Knockreagh, Shanco, Taghart and Moyer anomalies adding to the previously known anomalies at Creenkill and Bocks.
• Today’s announcement says that the 3kmx3km Moyer anomaly, the most southwestern of the seven, and the 3kmx1km Shanco anomaly “cover substantial areas”.
• Conroy Gold’s announcement comments that the “anomalies confirm the prospectivity of the Skullmartin gold trend which also hosts multiple gold mineralisation styles including disseminated visible gold in a quartz breccia outcrop at Creenkill to the north east of the trend”.
• Chairman, John Sherman, welcomed the identification of the new areas and said that while they are at an “early stage … [they] … significantly support the exploration potential along the Skullmartin trend”.

Conclusion: Identification of additional regional gold geochemical anomalies highlights the potential of the Skullmartin trend but may pose welcome challenges in identifying the priority areas for follow-up exploration.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 26p, Mkt Cap £179m – MRE drilling complete

• Empire have completed their MRE drilling programme at the large-scale Pitfield titanium project in Australia.
• The Company drilled 180 holes at the Thomas prospect over 10,136m and 140 AC holes and 40 RC holes.
• A total of 382 holes over 32.265m have now been drilled at Pitfield.
• Thomas was selected to take advantage of its higher-grade and thicker titanium mineralisation within the in-situ weathered zone.
• Drilling was completed over a 400m x 200m grid over 1,352Ha.
• In addition to the MRE, drilling will also support mine planning and ore scheduling for anticipated economic evaluation studies.

Conclusion: Empire continues to progress Pitfield and has now completed drilling for the upcoming maiden MRE. Given the large-scale nature of the titanium deposit, management has targeted the Thomas prospect for a ‘starter pit’ MRE given its high-grade, thick mineralised zones. For us, the key to unlocking the value of Pitfield remains a commercial flowsheet. The team has made strong progress with this, and we look forward to further updates from metallurgical test work and product quality assurance from downstream pigment/sponge producers.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Koryx Copper (KUS CN) C$1.1, Mkt Cap C$80m –Drilling results from Haib, Namibia

• Copper explorer Koryx report results from its 37 hole Phase 2 programme at Haib.
• Highlights yielded:

• • HM73: 88m at 0.41% Cu from 12m and 228m at 0.34% Cu from 270m.
  • HM68: 46m at 0.38% Cu from 96m, 14m at 0.52% Cu from 172m , 60m at 0.39% Cu from 202m
  • HM74: 46m at 0.36% Cu from 2m, 22m at 0.34% Cu from 96m
  • HM69: 8m at 0.97% Cu from 40m, 14m at 0.46% Cu from 142m
  • HM70: 4m at 0.4% Cu from 32m, 46m at 0.41% Cu from 134m
  • HM71: 8m at 0.39% Cu from 34m and 6m at 0.35% Cu from 64m

• Company continues to relog derill core and conduct surface mapping to boost their understanding of the porphyry and to support MRE modelling.
• 4 rigs due to be in operation from October.
• 11,100m of the 28,000m 2025 programme now completed.

Conclusion: Koryx is aiming to develop the Haib project to produce a copper concentrate via crushing/milling/flotation alongside potential heap leaching. Drilling today notes higher-grade zones previously unidentified along east-west and northwest-southeast structures. Management notes high-grade near surface mineralisation may support a higher-grade starter pit. Future drilling to test continuity of these higher-grade structures at depth.

Metals One (MET1 LN) 21.45p, Mkt Cap £60m – Exploration of US projects favoured over Finnish acquisitions

• Following last week’s announcement that it had completed the acquisition of the Uravan Uranium-Vanadium Project in Montrose County, Colorado MetalsOne reports that it has now issued 500,000 new shares as consideration for the acquisition.
• MetalsOne also announces today that it will not pursue its acquisition of the Hammaslahti copper/zinc project and the Black Schist project in Finland from 80 Mile plc (formerly Finnaust Mining).
• The company will pay 80Mile “£150,000 cash and costs incurred in connection with the 2025 FinnAust Transaction”.
• The company explains that its decision to forgo the Finnish opportunities will allow it to focus “exploration expenditure … [on] … other projects including in the USA where the Company has secured strategic footholds in prolific uranium and gold regions”.
• Chairman, Craig Moulton, explained that “For a relatively small sum we’ve been able to terminate the Hammaslahti and Outokumpu project acquisitions, removing the future 10% equity dilution (of the enlarged structure), the ongoing capital commitments that would have occurred from completing that transaction and the obligation to pay anything further in respect of the Black Schist Project we acquired in 2023”.
• He clarified that “although our near-term exploration expenditure is being prioritised towards exceptional early-stage uranium and gold opportunities in the USA, where the environment is ripe for new domestic discoveries, we remain committed to our European projects which offer compelling leverage to a rising nickel price in the longer term”.
• The company’s European nickel projects include the Råna project in Norway, where ASX-listed Kingrose Mining has a right to earn up to 75% (currently 51%), and the PGE/nickel project at Lillefjellklumpen, also in Norway.

Conclusion: MetalOne is not proceeding with acquisitions of the Hammaslahti copper/zinc project and the Black Schist project in Finland to focus on its US exploration.

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) A$0.20, Mkt Cap A$133m – Mumbezhi Phase 2 drilling resuslts

• The Company updated on the progress of the Phase 2 drilling programme at the Mumbezhi Copper Project (85% Prospect) in Zambia.
• The programme has seen ten DD drillholes completed for a total of ~3,000m to date.
• The most significant intersection from the four Phase 2 drillholes with assays returned to date was NCRD009:
• 49.0m at 0.52% from 314m including 12.3m at 0.79% from 331m and 8.0m at 0.80% from 314m
• The hole tested down dip extension of the mineralisation and contained predominantly chalcopyrite.
• Three diamond rigs are currently on site targeting the Nyungu Central and Kabikupa deposits.
• Phase 2 drilling programme commenced May 2025 and is focused on growing the existing Nyungu Central MRE (86.7mt at 0.5%).
• An airborne electromagnetic survey along with extensive geochemical soil sampling programme are set to commence shortly.
• That would help to identify and target untested regional, tenement-wide prospectivity across Mumbezhi.

Royal Gold (RGLD US) $168, Mkt Cap $12bn –Acquisition of Sandstorm and Horizon Copper

• Royal Gold has acquired 100% of Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper.
• Sandstorm shareholders to receive 0.0625/share in Royal Gold, implying an equity value of US$3.5bn at US$11.24/share and a 21% premium to 20 day VWAP.
• Horizon to receive C$2/share in cash for US$196m total consideration.
• Royal Gold Portfolio consensus NAV

• • Mt Milligan: $1.1bn
  • Pueblo Viejo: $0.8bn
  • Cortez: $0.6bn
  • Wassa:
  • Andacollo: $0.5bn
  • Penasquito: $0.2bn
  • Khoemacau: $0.5bn

• Royal Gold 2024 revenue split 33% royalties 67% streams.
• Sandstorm contribution to pro-forma NAV:

• • Platreef 3%
  • Antamina: 3%
  • MARA: 3%

• Horizon adds 3% accretion to NAV via:

• • 24% interest in Entrée Resources (20% JV in HNE and Heruga deposits at Oyu Tolgoi)
  • 1.66% Net Profit Interest in Antamina (Teck/BHP)
  • 30% non-operating interest in Hod Maden (SSR Mining)
• Pro-forma entity to see 2025E GEO production of 353k.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.033p, Mkt Cap £1.22m –Drilling imminent at Mushima North polymetallic project

• Tertiary announces today it has signed a drill contract to resume drilling at Mushima North, Zambia.
• Mushima North lies 28km east of the Kalengwa copper mine.
• The 1,500m programme will consist of AC/RC drilling at the Project’s A1 target.
• The programme will test the along-strike continuity of the 1.3km x 0.3km Ag/Zn soil anomaly.
• Drilling will also test the depth extension of mineralisation, up to 150m.
• 2024 drilling at Mushima North yielded highlights of:

• • 57m at 25g/t Ag, 0.2% Cu, 0.15% Zn from14m
  • 65m at 23g/t Ag, 0.14% Cu, 0.27% Zn from 9m

• Management expects drilling to start within the next two weeks, with all permits in place.

Conclusion: Exciting times for Tertiary as they resume drilling at the Mushima North Project. Drilling has identified wide intercepts of silver, copper and zinc mineralisation. This programme will test the continuation of mineralisation at depth, where management is hoping to intercept higher-grade values. Drilling will also test the continuity of mineralisation along strike.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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