SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 29th April 2025

Copper rises as import premiums jump to two year highs in China

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

ACG Metals (ACG LN) – 1Q25 operations update

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Further sales of Welsh gold coins

Alkane Resources (ALK AU) — Alkane to acquire Mandalay Resources for C$358m in an all-share transaction

G Mining Ventures (GMIN CN) – Oko West feasibility study

Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) – Draft non binding financing Term Sheet from the Summit Consortium received

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) – 3QFY25 operations update

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) – Production and AISC hit on KCGM troubles

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) – Expansion of Cerro Negro mineralisation footprint towards the south

Panther Metals (PALM LN) – 2024 results highlight exploration progress in Ontario

Sandfire Resources  (SFR AU) – Production impacted by heavy rains in Botswana and Spain

Syrah Resources (SYR AU) – Production still suspended at Balama on protest

Thor Energy (THR LN) – Initial assessment of Hy Range project described as ‘exceeding expectations’

Xtract Resources (XTR LN) – Encouraging early drilling results from the Silverking mine, Zambia

Copper ($9,445/t) rises as import premiums jump to two year highs in China

  • Copper prices have recovered further from the tariff scare, which pushed LME prices below $8,500/t.
  • The strength has been supported by a jump in the China Yangshan premium, from $35/t in February to $93/t yesterday.
  • The gauge historically reflects appetite for Chinese copper imports, and coincides with sliding domestic inventories.
  • There is a current trend of restocking in Shanghai, which is pushing spot copper premiums higher.
  • This follows a large outflow of metal into the US to take advantage of a tariff-instigated premium on the CME exchange.
  • Price-sensitive Chinese buyers took advantage of the Liberation Day dip, suggesting demand is ample at certain price levels.

China continues to draw copper in for local manufacturing, completion of housing projects and other infrastructure construction

  • Cathode Imports rose 4.5% in March to 308,800t indicating a meaningful uplift in local demand
  • Copper concentrate Imports also rose 1.8% yoy in Q1to 6.98mt
  • Anode Imports fell 48% to 50,176t yoy in March
  • The result is a substantial increase in net imports

Gold ($3,315/oz) consolidates as market waits for China/Trump next move

  • Gold prices have held over $3,300/oz overnight, having edged lower following the sharp jump to $3,500/oz.
  • The market has been relatively steady this week, with Treasury yields edging lower and the dollar sell-off cooling.
  • Meanwhile other haven assets, such as the Yen and the Swiss Franc, have seen their rallies cool.
  • ETFs have seen outflows this week as investors take profits on the metal, with the metal up 26%
  • Focus shifts to this week’s labour data, with current consensus expecting NF Payroll additions of 130k and unemployment rate of 4.2%.
  • There is increasing anxiety over the health of the US economy, and a sudden slowdown in hiring could push further allocation to haven assets amid recession concerns.

M&A heats up in the mining sector driven by stronger gold prices and low oil prices

Acquire or be acquired

  • Management teams will be looking at how to protect their business with significant cash piling up on their balance sheets.
  • According to S&P Global there were 62 deals worth $26.54bn in the mining sector in 2024 with a minimum deal size of $10m and 1moz of gold or 100,000t of base metals in acquired reserves and resources.
  • Gold focussed transactions accounted for 43 worth $19.31bn out of the 62 deals resulting in the sale of 192.5moz of gold and a combined 29.8mt if copper, nickel and zinc in reserves and resources.
  • Every one of those gold acquisitions should now look like a genius deal from the acquirers perspective with significantly higher gold prices and relatively low costs.
  • Deals so far this year:
    • Alkane Resources (ALK AU) agreed A$560m acquisition of Mandalay Resources (MND CN)
    • Rio Tinto (RIO LN) $6.7bn acquisition of Arcadium Lithium
    • Peabody Energy (BTU US) acquisition of Anglo American’s coking coal assets for US$3.8bn
    • Equinox Gold (EQX N) C$2.6bn acquisition of Calibre Mining (CXB CN)
    • Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) agreed A$2.4bn acquisition of Spartan Delta (TSX CN)
    • Gold Fields (GFI JSE) A$3.3bn rejected bid for Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)
    • China Molybdenum (3993 HK) C$581m all-cash offer for Lumina Gold (LUM CN)
    • Northern Star Resources (NST AU) acquisition of De Grey Mining (DEG AU) for A$5bn announced in December and completed in April.
    • Lundin Mining (LUN CN) and BHP acquired Filo Corp for $3.03bn completed in January.
    • Hummingbird Resources (HUM LN) acquired by Nioko Resources for $17m announced in December completed in Q1 2025
    • Greatland Gold’s acquisition of Telfer from Newmont Corp on 4 December
    • Zashvin acquired Anglo American’s 33.3% stake in Jellinbah East & Lake Vermont steel-making coal mines in Australia for A$1.6bn
    • MMG Singapore Resource agreed to acquired Anglo’s Brazilian nickel operations at Barro Alto and Codemin for up to US$500m
  • Likely acquisition targets:
    • Anglo American – BHP likely to return with an offer
    • Glencore: potential sale of significant parts of the business
    • Sovereign Metals* – Rio Tinto likely to consolidate its existing 18.5% position.
    • De Beers – has been up for sale for some time by Anglo.
    • Anglo American is also looking to divest its PGM business.
  • Gold Mining targets
    • Lundin Gold
    • IAM Gold
    • Dundee Precious Metals,
    • Centerra Gold
    • Predictive Discovery+
    • WIA Gold+
    • Snowline Gold
    • G2 Goldfields
  • Rare Earths (REEs) targets
    • Brazilian Rare Earths
    • Rainbow Rare Earths
    • Mkango Resources*
    • Ionic Rare Earths.
  • Lithium targets
    • AVZ rumoured offer by Rio Tinto in jv with Kobold Metals depending on dispute on who holds title to the Manono property in the DRC.
    • Savannah Resources* – Potential acquisition by AMG who hold ~15.8%
    • Lithium Argentinas+ – Ganfeng hold ~45%
    • Patriot Resources+   VW hold 10%
    • Mineral Resources loss-making lithium interests

Conclusion: We are likely to see many more acquisitions particularly in the gold sector due to the substantial uplift in margins from higher gold prices and lower oil-related costs.

*SP Angel acts for Sovereign metals, Mkango Resources and Savannah Resources. +An SP Angel mining analyst holds the stock

Dow Jones Industrials +0.28% at 40,228
Nikkei 225 +0.38% at 35,840
HK Hang Seng -0.04% at 21,964
Shanghai Composite -0.10% at 3,285
US 10 Year Yield (bp change) +1.9 at 4.23

Economics

UK – Food inflation hit a 11-month high climbing 2.6%yoy in April on the latest data from British Retail Consortium. (FT)

  • Non food remained in deflation dropping by 1.4%yoy, a weaker contraction than 1.9%yoy recorded in the previous month and the smallest drop in nine months.
  • Overall shop prices were down 0.1%yoy marking the smallest contraction since summer 2024.

Canada – Liberal Party led by Mark Carney is on track to win the largest number of seats and the right to form a government. (FT)

  • The result is a stark recovery for the party that was on course to lose power until Justin Trudeau resigned as party leader earlier this year.
  • Liberals capitalised on a patriotic increase in support amid Trump trade policies and comments that Canada should become the US’s “51st state”.
  • The C$ is little changed this morning and

Spain/Portugal – Power supply is being restored following nationwide blackouts on Monday with authorities yet to provide a cause for the power cut. (FT)

  • Spanish grid operator, Red Electrica, said that nearly 100% of energy demand had been restored.
  • The Portuguese government said that power had been fully restored.
  • Thousands were forced to spend the night in railway stations on Monday while one in ten flights were cancelled according to Aena, Spain’s biggest airport operator.

Induced atmospheric vibration causes blackout in Spain and Portugal

  • Induced atmospheric vibration caused by anomalous oscillations in the very high voltage lines (400 KV) due to extreme temperature variations
  • Spain suffered a substantial blackout just after midday yesterday knocking power out in most of Spain and Portugal.
  • It is claimed that high temperatures expanded, stretched and distorted high-tension cables. Some cables might have even touched.
  • Short term interruptions can trip circuits causing generators to slow with loss of frequency or confusing frequency monitors
  • If more circuits are tripped by the low frequency transformers saturate the voltage / frequency with high peak currents causing a cascade.
  • Simples!

Currencies

US$1.1398/eur vs 1.1353/eur previous. Yen 142.43/$ vs 143.70/$. SAr 18.547/$ vs 18.693/$. $1.342/gbp vs $1.331/gbp. 0.642/aud vs 0.638/aud. CNY 7.269/$ vs 7.299/$

Dollar Index 99.174 vs 99.648 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,317/oz vs US$3,289/oz previous

Gold ETFs 89.1moz vs 89.2moz previous

Platinum US$992/oz vs US$982/oz previous

Palladium US$949/oz vs US$951/oz previous

Silver US$33.1/oz vs US$33.0/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,375/oz vs US$5,375/oz previous  

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,411/t vs US$9,380/t previous

Aluminium US$2,442/t vs US$2,431/t previous

Nickel US$15,610/t vs US$15,665/t previous

Zinc US$2,658/t vs US$2,641/t previous

Lead US$1,974/t vs US$1,968/t previous

Tin US$32,130/t vs US$31,990/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$65.2/bbl vs US$66.9/bbl previous

  • Crude oil prices fell as Chinese officials denied any trade talks were ongoing with the US, heightening concerns for a protracted trade war stifling global economic growth and damaging energy demand.

Natural Gas €31.6/MWh vs €32.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $67.1/lb vs $66.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$99.8/t vs US$99.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.3/t vs US$462.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$183.0/t vs US$187.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$99.0/t vs US$95.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$56,409/t vs US$55,626/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,067/t vs US$9,139/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$795/t vs US$795/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$363/mtu vs US$363/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$285/t vs US$284/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,513/t vs US$1,513/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Battery News

Trump to “reduce impact” of auto tariffs

  • Donald Trump’s administration will move to reduce the impact of his automotive tariffs on Tuesday by alleviating some duties imposed on foreign parts in domestically manufactured cars.
  • The administration will also look to prevent tariffs on cars made abroad from piling on top of other ones, officials said.
  • “President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and our great American workers,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.
  • The development would mean car companies paying tariffs would not be charged other levies, such as those on steel and aluminum, and that reimbursements would be given for such tariffs that were already paid. (Wall Street Journal)
  • Having seen the markets in turmoil since the announcement of the tariffs earlier this month, the Trump administration are now trying to show some flexibility.
  • US auto industry groups urged Trump not to impose 25% tariffs on imported auto parts, warning they would cut vehicle sales and raise prices.

Company News

Overnight Change Weekly Change Overnight Change Weekly Change
BHP 1.4% 4.7% Freeport-McMoRan -0.3% 13.0%
Rio Tinto 1.4% 4.5% Vale 1.1% 5.3%
Glencore 0.0% 3.6% Newmont Mining 0.2% -2.1%
Anglo American 0.0% 3.8% Fortescue 5.8% 8.5%
Antofagasta 0.0% 7.3% Teck Resources -0.9% 8.0%

ACG Metals (ACG LN) 429p, Mkt Cap £93m – 1Q25 operations update

  • The Company reported 1Q25 operational results at the Gediktepe Polymetallic Mine in Turkey.
  • Production amounted to 15.6koz GE (+29%yoy) including 12.9koz gold and 240koz silver.
  • Sales totalled 16.2koz GE (+2%) at realised prices of $2,835/oz (+38%) and $32/oz (+36%).
  • Q1 production and sales were generated from the large inventory balance at the end of 2024, that will continue in 2Q25.
  • AISC within budget averaging $982/oz (-13%).
  • The Company introduced collar options covering 50% of its planned gold production through January 2026 amid record high gold prices and capital intensive project delivery period.
  • The Gediktepe Copper Sulphide Expansion Project development progressed in line with plan and budget.
  • Long lead items ordered and the site is to be handed over to GAP Insaat, the fixed price EPC contractor in early May.
  • Completion progress includes 46% of engineering design and draft, 33% of procurement and 8% of construction.
  • Commissioning remains on schedule for 1Q26.
  • The Sulphide Project is expected to run for initial 11 years producing ~20-25ktpa CuEq at $1.99/lb AISC.

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) 0.03p, Mkt cap £3.2m – Further sales of Welsh gold coins

  • Following the announcement earlier this month of the £20,000 auction sale of a 1oz, 24 carat, gold coin from its historic Clogau St David gold mine in North Wales, Alba Mineral Resources report that it has sold two further coins privately at a price of £21,000 each.
  • The company explained that it “put the second coin up for public auction recently, with the highest bid of £18,000 failing to reach the reserve price the Company … [and that following the failed auction] … a private collector has agreed to purchase the second and third coins for £21,000 each.
  • The private sale price attracted a similar multiple of ~8.5x the current gold price realised at the original auction.
  • Alba Minerals also reports that recent sampling of material from the mine’s waste tip and trial processing to a concentrate through “the recently modified gravity recovery plant … showed an average concentrate grade of 450.6 g/t across both trenches, equating to an average head grade of 9.2 g/t”.
  • Executive Chairman, George Frangeskides, commented that the “recent pilot processing plant modifications appear to have significantly improved gold recoveries when compared to the exercise that was undertaken in May 2024”.
  • He also welcomed the “high price for the sale of our limited edition Tyn-y-Cornel series gold coins”.

Alkane Resources (ALK AU) — Alkane to acquire Mandalay Resources for C$358m in an all-share transaction

  • Resources has agreed to acquire Mandalay Resources for C$496m (A$559m, US$358m)) in an all-share transaction combining the two companies.
  • Mandalay’s Costerfield mine, which produces about 2,800tpa of antimony which is all processed in China.
  • Alkane will then apply for a Canadian listing for the combined entity.
  • The combined group estimates 160,000oz of gold equivalent rising to 180,000oz eq in 2026 after converting the antimony and byproduct metals.
  • Mandalay shareholders will receive 7.875 Alkane shares for each Mandalay share held and will hold 55% of the combined entity.
  • Alkane shareholders get 45% when the deal closes in Q3.
  • The combined company will run Alkane’s Tomingley gold mine, Mandalay’s Costerfield antimony, gold mine in Australia and the Björkdal gold mine in Sweden.

G Mining Ventures (GMIN CN) C$19.2, Mkt Cap C$4.34bn – Oko West feasibility study

  • G Mining, gold producer/explorer in Guyana and Suriname, report results from their Oko West project in Guyana.
  • G Mining acquired the asset following a merger with Reunion Gold in 2024.
  • The feasibility study estimates average annual gold production of 350kozpa at an AISC of $1,123/oz for 12.3 years.
  • Average milling throughput of 6,2mpta (vs 6mtpa in PEA) at gold head grade of 1.89g/t Au and recoveries of 93.5%.
  • Development CAPEX estimated at $972m and SUSEX estimated at $650m over LOM.
  • Post-tax NPV5 at US$2,500/oz Au of $2.2bn, IRR of 27%. Increases to $3.2bn and 35% respectively at $3,000/oz.
  • Company expects final environmental permit 2Q25 and construction decision 2H25.

Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) 2.4p, Mkt Cap £116m – Draft non binding financing Term Sheet from the Summit Consortium received

BUY – TP 4.4p

CLICK FOR PDF

  • The Company received the draft non binding funding term sheet for the Kola Potash Project, Republic of Congo, from Summit Consortium.
  • The proposal includes a combination of royalty and project finance components covering full project development capital cost.
  • The Company has not disclosed details of the proposal with terms to be revealed once the term sheets have been finalised, agreed and executed.
  • The team has until 31 May 2025 to consider, negotiate if necessary and settle on the terms.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) A$20.6, Mkt Cap A$4.0bn – 3QFY25 operations update

  • Iron ore production across Onslow Iron and the Pilbara Hub amounted to 6.0mt with shipments of 5.9mt.
  • Average realised price was $89/t (+6%qoq).
  • Onslow Iron haul road upgrade remains on schedule of completion in 1QFY26.
  • Onslow nameplate capacity on track to reach 35mttpa in 1QFY26.
  • Onslow Iron guidance lowered to 8.5-8.7mt, from 8.8-9.3mt) with FOB costs to come in at the uppoer end of the $60-70/t range.
  • Pilbara Hub guidance reiterated.
  • Mining Services delivered 62mt during the quarter, down 6mt qoq, on the back of lower volumes at the Yilgarn Hub and Bald Bill.
  • FY25 production volumes are expected to be at the bottom end of the 280-300mt guidance range.
  • Lithium production (attributable) amounted to 133kt with shipments of 127kt.
  • Average realised price was $844/t on SC6 equivalent (+2%qoq) and $685/t on mixed grade basis (-2%qoq).
  • Wodgina guidance reiterated and Mt Marion production target increased to 185-200kt SC6, up from 150-170kt SC6.
  • Cost guidance maintained.
  • Balance sheet wise, the Company highlighted available liquidity of A$1.25bn including $450m in cash and a fully undrawn $800m in revolving credit facility.
  • The team reported that given available access to liquidity as well as other avenues to raise capital if required, an “equity raise is not under consideration”.
  • Net debt stood at $5.4bn as of 31 March.
  • The Company reports it was in compliance with all of its financial maintenance covenants as at December 2024.

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) A$20, Mkt Cap A$22.8bn – Production and AISC hit on KCGM troubles

  • Australian gold major Northern Star reports total production 385koz at an AISC of US$1,409/oz.
  • Company generated underlying free cash flow of A$201m and reports net mine cash flow of A$295m.
  • Company revises guidance lower:
    • FY25 production expected at 1,630-1,660koz (1,650-1,800koz previous)
    • FY25 AISC guided at A$2,100-2,200/oz (A$1,850-2,100/oz previous)
    • CAPEX guided at A$950-1,100m (A$950-1,020m previous)
  • The increase in AISC guidance reflects ‘delayed access to Golden Pike North, unplanned maintenance costs across the Yandal region and higher royalties.’
  • North Star is currently progressing the Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) Mill Expansion Project, to boost production to 900kozpa from the asset form FY29.
  • The expansion is set to replacer 85% of the 13mtpa plant and boost capacity to 27mpta and the Mill Expansion CAPEX budget is A$1.5bn.
  • Total project spend stands at A$728m to date.
  • Northern Star boosts exploration expenditure by A$50m for drill drive development acceleration across KCGM, Pogo and Jundee.
  • Company reports net cash of A$181m after A$279m dividend payment.
  • De Grey scheme of arrangement implementation date due May 5th.
  • Management expects ‘free cash generation is expected to significantly increase as we lift production going forward.’

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) 4p, Mkt Cap £22m – Expansion of Cerro Negro mineralisation footprint towards the south

  • Great Southern Copper reports that recent exploration mapping at sampling to the south of the old Mostaza mine in its Cerro Negro prospect area in Chile has extended the area of known mineralisatio to the south.
  • Assays results from 59 “exploration channel chip samples range up to 0.93% Cu and 86.4 g/t Ag”.
  • CEO, Sam Garrett, explained that the exploration results demonstrate “that the structural trend which hosts the high-grade copper-silver mineralisation at Mostaza continues for a further two km along strike to the south of the mine”.
  • Mr. Garrett confirmed that the “Mineralisation is open to the south and our ground exploration efforts will continue in earnest with the aim to further extend the mineralised trend and define drill targets for the Phase III exploration drilling programme”.
  • Following the recent completion of 1,701m of drilling in a 16-hole ‘Phase II’ programme at Mostaza, “deposit modelling and metallurgical test work on the Mostaza drill core has commenced and scout diamond drilling continues at our Viuda Negra prospect targeting porphyry-epithermal style Au-Ag-Cu mineralisation”.
  • The company describes the copper/silver mineralisation “at Mostaza … [as] … confined to a north-south trending, structurally controlled lode, or “lens” … [Lens 2] … of variable width (<4-20m) that dips moderately steeply to the west … [and comments that drilling results indicate that the] … mineralised lenses are typically depleted in both Cu (<100ppm) and Ag at surface due to weathering and oxidation … [and so] … higher grades might be expected at depth beneath these surface exploration results”.
  • Continuing surface exploration is helping to define targets for a third phase of exploratory drilling.

Conclusion: Surface exploration has extended mineralisation at Cerro Negro a further 2km south of the old Mostaza mine with continuing work aimed at identifying drilling targets. We await further exploration news with interest.

Panther Metals (PALM LN) 39.5p , Mkt Cap £2.3m – 2024 results highlight exploration progress in Ontario

  • Panther Metals, which is exploring for critical minerals in the Schreiber-Helmo Greenstone Belt of Ontario reports an after-tax loss for the year to 31st December 2024 of £2.2m (2023 profit £0.3m) and a closing cash balance of £17,536.
  • Executive Chairman, Nicholas O’Reilly, commented that the five hole (1,558m), Phase 1 Diamond Drilling Programme undertaken during October/November … [at the Dotted Lake prospect] … successfully defined the extensive ultramafic body, modelled from Panther’s airborne geophysics data, as a mineralised magnesium-rich serpentinite carrying the platinum group elements, … as well as nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr) and silver (Ag).
  • He also commented that drilling of hole DL24-002, subsequent to the year end, “ended within the intrusive body, is displaying strengthening nickel grade layering with depth, with the bottom two layers intersected each exceed 3% Ni equivalent over a combined 19.5m wide interval.
  • At the flagship Obonga exploration project north of Thunder Bay, Ontario drilling identified graphitic carbon in an area where geophysical modelling identifies a 4.1km long trend extending towards the east.
  • The 291km2 Obonga project is also considered to be prospective for VMS-hosted base metals as well as precious metals and lithium.
  • The Chairman summarised progress during 2024 saying that We have now advanced our Dotted Lake and Obonga projects, beyond generative exploration to delineate multiple drill ready discovery and resource targets that now demand our focus.

Sandfire Resources  (SFR AU) A$10.2, Mkt Cap A$4.7bn – Production impacted by heavy rains in Botswana and Spain

  • Copper producer Sandfire reports 3Q25 results, following ‘unprecedented rainfall at both Motheo and Matsa.’
  • The Company expects to meet production guidance of 154kt CuEq FY25.
  • Company produced 36kt CuEq over the quarter, vs 33.7kt same period last year.
  • Ytd copper equivalent production up 13% to 111kt for FY25.
  • Matsa C1 unit costs down 20% to US$1.65/lb ytd, whilst Motheo C1 unit costs down 21% to US$1.32/lb ytd but up qoq to $1.54/lb and $1.34/lb respectively.
  • Group sales revenue of $283m and underlying operations EBITDA of $145m over the quarter, with net debt reduced by US$45m to US$243m.
  • CAPEX over the quarter at US$44m.
  • Management notes CuEq production from Motheo expected to rise to 60kt in FY26 (45kt 2024 and guided for 59kt 2025)

Syrah Resources (SYR AU) A$0.26, Mkt Cap A$276m – Production still suspended at Balama on protest

  • Syrah reports no graphite production from Balama over the quarter owing to protests impacting operations.
  • Company sold 1kt of natural graphite from inventories at US$827/t CIF.
  • Company reports Vidalia ramp up timing awaits certainty on commercial sales.
  • Vidalia AAM production reportedly meeting specifications for use in Li-ion batteries, with carbon purity record over 99.95% consistently.
  • Vidalia AAM sales expected later this year.
  • Vidalia expansion (from 11.25ktpa to 45ktpa) FID is dependent on Vidalia AAM initial sales and customer and financing commitments.
  • Cash balance at quarter end showed US$66m in cash, with $44m restricted,

Graphite Market Update

  • Global EV sales at 4m units in March 2025 quarter, up 36%yoy.
  • Anode production stable in March 2025 vs December Q but up 45%yoy.
  • China synthetic graphite AAM believed to be below estimated production costs.

Thor Energy (THR LN) 0.48p, Mkt Cap £4.8m – Initial assessment of Hy Range project described as ‘exceeding expectations’

  • In its quarterly report for January-March 2025, Thor Energy highlights the strategic shift to focus on the hydrogen/helium potential of the Hy Range project in South Australia.
  • Managing Director, Andrew Hume, commented that the project assessment “have already exceeded our expectations and have prompted the Board to seek to fast-track passive on-ground exploration activities in advance of final drill target design”.
  • The company reports a closing cash balance of A$1.9m with “Net cash outflows from Operating and Investing activities for the quarter of $239,000, which included outflows of $19,000 directly related to exploration activities … [and also included] … payments of $117,000 to Directors, comprising the Managing Director’s salary, the Non-Executive Directors’ salaries. The Executive Chairman is continuing to accrue his Executive Directors’ fees”.
  • The company has previously reported net resources of 842Bcf of hydrogen and 90Bcf of helium at Hy Range.

Xtract Resources (XTR LN) 1.05p, Mkt Cap £6.9m – Encouraging early drilling results from the Silverking mine, Zambia

  • Xtract Resources reports results from the first three holes of its drilling campaign at the Silverking copper mine and associated exploration areas in the Mumbwa District of the Central Province of Zambia, which started in March.
  • The drilling fulfils part of its option agreement with Oval Mining enabling Xtract Resources to earn up to 70% of the project.
  • Today’s announcement highlights results from “the original mineralised structure from which Xtract has commenced step out drilling to define mineralisation limits” including:
    • An intersection of 23m at an average grade of 0.74% copper and 8.33g/t silver from a depth of 113m in hole SKIDD-001; and
    • An intersection of 54.1m at an average grade of 3.18% copper and 40.32g/t silver from a depth of 56.9m in hole SKIDD-002; and
    • An intersection of 29.7m at an average grade of 4.15% copper and 42.91g/t silver from a depth of 93m in hole SKIDD-003.
  • In addition to the ‘Main Zone’ intersections reported above, holes 001 and 002 also intersected both hanging wall and footwall mineralisation above and below the Main Zone while Hole 003 intersected footwall mineralisation.
  • The company confirms that it is continuing independent metallurgical test work in South Africa “to assess and optimise flotation recovery”.
  • Explaining that the initial results are from “the first target identified within the Silverking Licences … [Xtract Resources says that it] … will continue to test other targets that have been identified with a view to quickly establishing the scope for Silverking to deliver a much larger Mineral Resource”.
  • The operations section of the company’s website www.xtractresources.com describes a non-compliant resource estimate commissioned by Glencore in 2012 showing “an estimated 268,971 tonnes at 2.7% Cu at a 0.5% Cu cut-off for the main Silverking breccia pipe only”.
  • Executive Chairman, Colin Bird, explained that the “exploration team has stepped out from the initial target and has commenced drilling to test possible extensions and also the depth extent of the body. In addition, new previously unrecognised structures that may also host copper – silver mineralisation are being evaluated.
  • Mr. Bird confirmed that “Preliminary modelling of an open pit has commenced, and the model will be adjusted depending on the results of deeper drilling.
  • Previous announcements explained that the “former Silverking open pit and underground mine extends to a mining depth of only 70m”.

Conclusion: Initial drilling at the former Silverking mine in Zambia shows intersections of copper and silver mineralisation of up to more than 50m (downhole) of the Main Zone with additional intersections of both hanging and footwall mineralisation.  Drilling is now moving to the identification of depth and lateral extensions of the mineralisation.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Sources of commodity prices  
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt LME
Oil Brent ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore NYMEX
Thermal Coal Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal SSY
RRE Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile Asian Metal

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