Copper strengthens as China continues to draw in metal and copper concentrates
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) – Exploration plan for the ‘Big One’ Project in Queensland
Empire Metals* (EEE LN) –Drilling and met-testwork support progression to Exploration Target
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – Stepout drilling to test Kearny Vein extension
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Acquisition by AAJ to provide Copper-Uranium Exposure in Australia
Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – Restructuring of loan to meet Falcon Isle acquisition payments and directors fees
Thor Energy (THR LN) – New MRE for the Molyhil tungsten project
Copper prices ($10,466/t) strengthen as China continues to smelt at record levels
- Copper prices have rallied 1.4% today, climbing to $10,470/t.
- The market has been roiled by volatility recently, soaring to $11,000/t on the back of a US-driven short squeeze and shortage concerns.
- Collapsed TCRC fees on smelter overcapacity and concentrate supply disruptions are fuelling concerns over a shortage of cathodes.
- However, China continues to ramp up output, with smelter production currently at record highs.
- Scrap prices are reportedly rising, whilst fabricators and struggling to feed higher prices to their end users.
- Sentiment is improving slightly in China, with Shanghai reducing down-payment ratios and minimum mortgage thresholds to support home buying.
Tin prices ($ 33,905/t) hold higher ground despite rising inventories
- Tin prices have held around $33k/t, having enjoyed a 30% rally ytd.
- Tin prices have been supported by supply disruptions from Myanmar and Indonesia.
- Similar to copper, however, Shanghai inventories of tin are buoyant, sitting at their highest levels since 2015 with 17.8kt registered.
- The previous record inventory level was 11kt in 2017.
- LME stocks, however, down 36% ytd, whilst the futures curve shows contango, a traditional signal of plentiful supply.
- On the supply side, Indonesian exports were close to zero in January and February, ticking up in March.
- Myanmar is progressing the reopening of the Man Maw mine, which has been allowed to move above-surface stocks. (Reuters)
- However, no formal mining restart has been approved.
- China is ramping up refined tin production, up 36% mom in March and 3% yoy. (SMM)
- Semiconductor sales, a major driver of tin demand, grew 15% yoy in Q1 but down 6% qoq.
Gold prices ($2,344/oz) steady whilst silver rallies on strong Chinese buying
- Gold prices have held lower levels at $2,344/oz, having weakened from $2,360/oz overnight.
- Conversely, silver prices rallied 5% to near $32/oz, with traders playing the arbitrage between premium Chinese prices and the West.
- Funds have been ramping up bullish bets on precious metals, with COMEX net-longs at their highest since Mid-April 2020, when COVID concerns were at their most extreme.
- Focus turns to US inflation data on Friday, with PCE numbers expected to provide a guide to Fed rate cut plans.
- Market suggests a 63% chance of a rate cut by November, with US 10 year yields edging higher as cut optimism fades.
Study: The Amount of Copper Needed for EVs Is ‘Impossible for Mining Companies to Produce’
- A University of Michigan study highlights the critical challenge of insufficient copper production for the global transition to EVs.
- The study states that the amount of copper needed for EVs is “essentially impossible for mining companies to produce.”
- An EV requires three to five times more copper than traditional gas or diesel cars.
- Researchers analyzed 120 years of global copper production data and modeled future production against projected copper needs for renewable energy and EVs. The study concluded that renewable energy’s copper needs exceed current production capacity.
- Between now and 2050, 115% more copper than has been mined in all human history up to 2018 will be needed.
- Meeting copper demands for electrifying the global vehicle fleet requires six new large copper mines annually, with 40% of their production needed for EV-related grid upgrades.
- The study suggests focusing on manufacturing hybrid vehicles instead of fully electrifying the entire US vehicle fleet.
121 Mining Investment Conference investment Leaders panel: https://youtu.be/OWEASjgXiME?si=ZPzQT-1SnUhXRo0g
IG TV: Gold and Copper. 10/04/2024: https://youtu.be/KuGSbDqWglk?si=-8iikkOHxbbLSnPZ
Sharepickers TV: Everybody wants copper. 17/05/2024 podcast: https://audioboom.com/posts/8507288-john-meyer-everybody-wants-copper
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfYNVjIiEs4
*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts. We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate. SP Angel acts as Broker/Nomad or both for Anglo Asian Mining, Kodal Minerals, Power Metals Resources.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.01% | at | 39,070 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.11% | at | 38,855 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.17% | at | 18,795 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.46% | at | 3,110 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -1.4 | at | 4.45 |
Economics
US – A set of April PCE inflation data to be released this Friday with markets to watch closely for evidence of a slowdown in inflation rates.
- PCE (%yoy, Est/Mar): 2.7/2.7;
- Core PCE (%yoy, Est/Mar): 2.8/2.8.
China – Shanghai lowers mortgage downpayments in another move to shore up struggling national property sector.
- Downpayment will be reduce by 10pp to a minimum of 20% for first time buyers and 30% for second home purchasers.
- Expectations are other top tier cities to follow Shanghai suit.
- The announcement following on China’s rescue package announced earlier this month as the central bank offered CNY 300bn ($41bn) of funding to help local governments to buy unsold properties.
ECB – Francois Villeroy, a Governing Council member, is not ruling out two consecutive cuts at June and July policy meetings calling for “maximum optionality” on ECB rates decision.
- While June rate cut is seen as a done deal policymakers are reluctant to commit to a path on further rate decisions beyond that, Bloomberg writes.
- Next ECB meeting is due next week (June 6).
- Inflation expectations released this morning showed a pullback in 1y and 3y CPI outlook, albeit, on absolute levels both remain over the 2% ECB target.
- ECB 1y CPI Expectations (Apr/Mar/Est): 2.9/3.0/2.9;
- ECB 3y CPI Expectations (Apr/Mar/Est): 2.4/2.5/2.5.
UK – PM Sunak is set top propose tax cuts for millions of pensioners in an effort to shore up support ahead of July general elections.
- The government is planning to introduce a new age-related allowance and deliver a tax cut of ~£100 for each 8m pensioners in 205 rising to almost £300 a year by the end of the next parliament, Reuters reports.
South Africa – General elections due tomorrow with the ruling ANC party facing the toughest test yet as support for ruling party wanes.
- The vote will reveal if ANC can hold onto its majority in the 400-seat National Assembly or will need to form a coalition government.
- Polls suggest the ANC may win only 40% of votes, down from 57.5% in 2019, Reuters reports.
- New parliament is set to choose the next president with Cyril Ramaphosa seeking its second and final five year term.
Mozambique – Raxio opens first data centres in Mozambique
- The company plans to spend $290m in building 10 data centres across Africa by 2027
- Mozambique has a substantial and reliable power supply and could generate around 187Gw from coal, hydro, gas wind and solar
- The nation plans to achieve universal electrification by 2030 from 48% in 2022.
- EDM is set to deliver >30,0000 new connection per year in addition to over 100,000 new off grid connections.
- The Government of Mozambique has made rural electrification development a priority led by the Mozambique Energy Fund Institute which focuses on small, off-grid projects of less than 10MW.
- The Cahora Bassa hydro dam sells 65% of its existing generation to South Africa with the rest sold to the northern regions of Mozambique and to Zimbabwe.
- The nation recently added a new 420MW Combined Cycle Generation gas plant.
- A new 1,500MW hydro project is planned at Mphanda Nkuwa led by EDF.
Currencies
US$1.0877/eur vs 1.0818/eur previous. Yen 156.90/$ vs 157.04/$. SAr 18.344/$ vs 18.474/$. $1.277/gbp vs $1.270/gbp. 0.666/aud vs 0.660/aud. CNY 7.247/$ vs 7.245/$.
Dollar Index 104.46 vs 104.88 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$2,344/oz vs US$2,339/oz previous
Gold ETFs 80.6moz vs 00.0moz previous
Platinum US$1,050/oz vs US$1,024/oz previous
Palladium US$985/oz vs US$967/oz previous
Silver US$31.45/oz vs US$31/oz previous
Rhodium US$4,725/oz vs US$4,725/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$ 10,466/t vs US$10,381/t previous
Aluminium US$ 2,690/t vs US$2,619/t previous
Nickel US$ 20,415/t vs US$20,225/t previous
Zinc US$ 3,096/t vs US$3,051/t previous
Lead US$ 2,328/t vs US$2,290/t previous
Tin US$ 33,905/t vs US$33,510/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$83.1/bbl vs US$81.2/bbl previous
- The US Baker Hughes rig count fell by 4 units to 600 rigs last week (-111 or 15% y/y), with oil rigs flat at 497 units (-73 y/y) and gas rigs down 4 to 99 units (-38 y/y), as Canada also gained 6 rigs to 120 units (+33 y/y).
- Offshore Energies UK outlined its manifesto for a ‘homegrown’ energy transition to net zero emissions, which means relying as much as possible on energy produced domestically in the UK, rather than on imports. This included ensuring the UK tax regime was internationally competitive and stable with full expensing of capital.
Natural Gas €34.3/MWh vs €34.7/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $91.7/lb vs $92.2/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$121.3/t vs US$123.2/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$540.6/t vs US$539.2/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$121.8/t vs US$119.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$140.0/t vs US$140.3/t
Hard Coking Coal Australia FOB US$326.0/t vs US$326.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$27,150/t vs US$27,150/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$52,918/t vs US$53,560/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$14,282/t vs US$14,287/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,210/t vs US$1,210/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$972/t vs US$972/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$365/mtu vs US$365/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$470/t vs US$470/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 5.2/lb vs US$5.1/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 26.85/kg vs US$26.35/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$321/t vs US$321/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,401/t vs US$1,401/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$74.9/t vs US$75.4/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$310.0/t vs US$305.0/t
Battery News
India EV sales rise 22.79% yoy April 2024
- Electric car sales in India saw a 22.79% YoY increase in April 2024, with 7,415 units sold compared to 6,039 units in April 2023. However, there was a 21.97% MoM decline from 9,503 units in March 2024.
- Tata Motors dominated the market with a 67% share, selling 4,956 units, a 10.04% YoY increase from 4,504 units in April 2023, but a 29.25% MoM decline from 7,005 units in March 2024.
- MG Motor sales grew 243.71% YoY to 1,203 units in April 2024 from 305 units in April 2023, and MoM sales increased by 6.37% from 1,131 units in March 2024.
- Mahindra sold 625 units of the XUV400 in April 2024, a 17.13% YoY growth, holding an 8.48% market share, but MoM sales declined by 4.48% from 661 units in March 2024.
- BYD sales of E6, Atto3, and Seal declined by 15.85% YoY and 0.73% MoM to 138 units.
- Citroen eC3 sales fell by 46.67% YoY to 128 units, and MoM sales dropped 28.09% from 178 units in March 2024.
- Hyundai sold 85 units of Kona and Ioniq5 in April 2024, a 63.46% YoY growth, but MoM sales declined by 42.18%.
- Kia EV6 sales dropped to 20 units, a 48.72% YoY and 39.39% MoM decline.
Study finds only 2.5% of EV batteries have been replaced to date
- A study from Recurrent found that EV battery replacements are rare, with only 2.5% of EV battery packs from 2011 to 2024 being replaced.
- Recurrent’s findings show that for cars older than 2015, the replacement rate is 13%, but for cars from 2016 and newer, it is under 1%.
- Critics often cite battery replacements as a major drawback of EVs due to the high cost, which can be up to 50% of the car’s value.
- The study indicates that most EV batteries are still in their original vehicles, particularly those from Tesla, which leads in U.S. EV sales.
- Even in cases of battery-related recalls, financial inconvenience for consumers has been minimal, with replacements typically handled under warranty by automakers.
Brazil surpasses Belgium as top export market for Chinese EVs, hybrids, data shows
- Brazil has overtaken Belgium to become the largest export market for Chinese new energy vehicles (EVs and hybrids).
- Exports to Brazil reached 40,163 units in April, a 13-fold increase year-on-year, maintaining its position as the top market for the second consecutive month.
- The rise in exports to Brazil is attributed to impending tariff increases on EV and hybrid imports and efforts to boost local auto production.
- BYD is building a manufacturing complex in Brazil, expected to start production by the end of 2024 or early 2025.
- Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Norway saw significant drops in imports of China-made electric passenger vehicles due to the EU’s anti-subsidy probe.
- Chinese carmakers are increasingly targeting South America, Australia, and ASEAN markets due to disruptions in the EU market.
Nigeria’s luxury car market to reach $55m by 2028
- The Nigerian luxury car market is projected to reach $55 million by 2028, with a CAGR of 14.75%, according to Maxim Makarchuk, COO of Jiji and Cars45.
- This growth is driven by evolving customer desires, infrastructure development, and a growing preference for sustainable luxury cars.
- Luxury brands such as Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Land Rover dominate the market, accounting for over 60% of luxury car advertisements on platforms like Jiji.
- Rising inflation and economic challenges have not deterred the growth of the luxury car market, highlighting a significant trend in the Nigerian economy.
- There is a strong appetite for luxury goods among the growing Nigerian middle class, who view luxury cars as symbols of success and social status.
- There is a growing trend toward sustainable luxury cars, with increasing interest in eco-friendly and fuel-efficient models like Tesla’s EVs and BMW’s i3.
Company News
Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) 0.4p, Mkt Cap £5.2m – Exploration plan for the ‘Big One’ Project in Queensland
- Castillo Copper has outlined its near-term exploration plans for its ‘Big One’ copper project in Queensland with an initial “three-day surface sampling campaign that will concentrate on eight areas across the Big One Deposit, with historical anomalous surface copper and/or high conductivity zones”.
- The programme will follow up findings of a 2020 induced polarisation (IP) survey which showed “Significant incremental copper mineralisation located along north-trending fault structures rather than constrained in the trachyte dyke … [and also an] … untested bedrock conductor north of the … [1,200m long] … line of lode, materially larger than the high-grade anomaly drilled in 2020”.
- The company explains that “Once geochemical data from the upcoming campaign is reconciled with historical geophysics and surface observations, high-conviction targets for test-drilling can be formulated to potentially extend known mineralisation north of the line of lode”.
Conclusion: Surface sampling, including in areas of historic geochemical anomalism, is planned to aid in identification of drill targets. We await results from the latest phase of exploration at the ‘Big One’ prospect with interest.
Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 9.5p, Mkt Cap £57m –Drilling and met-testwork support progression to Exploration Target
(Empire holds 70% of Pitfield, Century Minerals, which is run by two geologists holds the other 30%. One of these geologists works for Empire.)
- Empire, which is currently developing the Pitfield Titanium Project, has received assay results form the four diamond holes recently drilled.
- The drilling targeted the higher grade Cosgrove and Thomas targets, with 800m completed over the two sandstone-rich beds.
- The higher grade zones have been confirmed in the upper 40m of the deposit, supporting bulk-scale open pit operations.
- Highlights of:
-
- DD24COS002: 202m at 6.3% TiO2 from surface.
- DD24COS003: 202m at 6.1% TiO2 from surface.
- DD24TOM002: 202m at 4.95% TIO2 from surface.
- DD24TOM003: 182m at 6.8% TIO2 from 20m to end of hole.
- Empire continues to progress their Pitfield development, with the recent drilling providing geological, mineralogical and metallurgical data crucial to further advancement.
- The Company is aiming to deliver a JORC Exploration Target for the two prospects with the assistance of Snowden Optiro resource consultants.
- The team are currently developing a geological model of the mineralised body, with different Tio2 cut offs.
Conclusion: The recent diamond drilling has identified a strongly weathered zone closer to surface which hosts the higher-grade TIO2 titanite mineralisation. Core has been submitted to for further analysis to determine the zone’s mineral assemblage. However, the Team is now focusing on the two high-grade zones, representing less than 20% of the mineralised system area, for initial Exploration Target delivery. The Company reports metallurgical studies are underway, to identify processes for mineral separation and titanium extraction. We await these results with interest as they will prove key to unlocking the value at Pitfield.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 12p, Mkt Cap £14m – Stepout drilling to test Kearny Vein extension
- The team is planning to drill test a northern extension of the Kearny Vein at the Omagh Gold Project, Northern Ireland.
- The programme will comprise three stepout drill holes for ~1,000m (total) to be completed from surface testing the extension at depths over 200m.
- The programme will target dilation zones of higher grade and thicker mineralisation to grow the existing mineral resource.
- The target zone is located ~180m north of the current Kearny Vein that runs north south for confirmed 850m.
- The vein is reported to remain open at depth down plunge.
- The work will be completed under Permitted Development following a positive meeting of the Local Council Planning Committee on May 22.
*SP Angel acts as Broker to Galantas Gold
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 16p, Mkt cap £18m – Acquisition by AAJ to provide Copper-Uranium Exposure in Australia
- Power Metal Resources provides an update on its 2022 Merger Agreement of NHM Holdings.
- NHM holdings, which holds POW’s Wilan Project in Queensland, has signed a conditional agreement to be acquired by ASX-listed Aruma Resources.
- POW owns 20% of NHM, with the Wilan Project an IOCG-Uranium-prospective asset near BHP’s Olympic Dam.
- NHM sharheolders will receive 26.5m AAJ shares, 24.5m AAJ options exercisable into one AAJ shares at a nil exercise price, upon AAJ receiving PEPR approval to drill at Wilan.
- 28m options will be exercisable at a nil exercise price upon AAJ reporting an aggregate drilling intercept of 3m at >600ppm U308, or 20m at >0.8% CuEq.
- AAJ will also pay a 2% NSR to NHM shareholders.
Conclusion: Power Metal continues its strategy of value creation through its diverse portfolio of assets and interests. Today’s announcement highlights their continued success in generating opportunities, with their 20% interest in NHM now acquired by Aruma, providing shareholders with an early-stage exploration asset in Australia with exposure to Copper-Uranium in prospective regions.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources
Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – 3.00p, Mkt cap £2.37m – Restructuring of loan to meet Falcon Isle acquisition payments and directors fees
(Keras holds 100% of the Diamond Creek phosphate mine in Utah, USA)
- Keras Resources has restructured its short term debt of US$900,000 which it incurred buying out the remaining 49% in Falcon Isle Resource Corp and Falcon Isle Holdings LLC in 2022.
- Management have restructured this into a US$1,525,000 four-year loan and convertible loan, with US$1,325,000 of new cash funds and US$200,000 in capitalised Directors outstanding fees.
- Additional funds will be used to pay US$800,000 due to the vendor of Falcon Isle on 1 July 2024 along with US$100,000 as a final severance payment to the former CEO of Falcon Isle, and for growth projects and general working capital.
-
- “The restructuring ensures the Company can meet its current obligations without negatively impacting the long-term growth profile at the high-grade organic phosphate business in Utah, USA.”
- Directors Russell Lamming and Graham Stacey have agreed to capitalise US$100,000 in outstanding fees each due from the Company with 50% of this taken in convertible loans and 50% in normal loan form.
- The four-year convertible:
-
- US$762,500 at 4%pa convertible into Keras shares at £0.0275/s.
- If the 30-day VWAP is £0.09/s then Keras can force the conversion of the convertible.
- The convertible can be converted at any time by notice given by the holders with interest will be compounded annually and included with the amount being converted, or paid at the end of the four-year loan period if not converted.
- Four-year promissory notes totalling US$762,500 at an 8%pa after four years are being made to Falcon Isle Resource Corp which has the right to repay the loans, without penalty, after two years.
- The funding will be done in two tranches due to limited share issuing authority of £165,000 with the total nominal value required for the restructuring, including interest of £254,308.
| Convertible Loan | Shares | Nominal (GBP) | |
| Tranche 1 (Principle) | £431,203 | 15,680,125 | £156,801 |
| Tranche 2 (Principle) | £166,601 | 6,058,230 | £60,582 |
| Sub Total | £597,805 | 21,738,358 | £217,384 |
| Tranche 2 (Interest) | £101,542 | 3,692,446 | £36,924 |
| Total | £699,347 | 25,430,802 | £254,308 |
- The plant uses Keras’ high pressure grinding rolls and an HPGR mill from Keras’ original Spanish Fork site.
- The jv has added a 5tph granulator plant from a China OEM which will be scaled up to continuous operations by the end of the year.
- The mine will produce and sell some 760tpm at full production to be sold into the jv increasing sales of 50 mesh product for the balance of 2024.
- At full production, the jv is expected to increase Falcon Isle’s quarterly sales of 50 mesh by approximately 2,280t / quarter equating to a 115% increase on the Q1 2024 sales.
- 100% of the revenue from the sales to the jv are attributable to Falcon Isle with while also sharing 50% in of the profit from the Phosul® product produced from this material.
- Demand for Phosul® currently outweighs production capacity at Phosul’s Idaho processing plant indicating potential to increase sales from Keras’ Diamond Creek 25,000tpa rock phosphate mine.
- The Phosul jv will consume ~10,500tpa of 50 mesh phosphate vs 2023 sales of 2,111t. The Phosul® formula uses 80% Falcon Isle rock phosphate from the Diamond Creek mine
- Phosul® granules are currently selling for $40 for a 25lb bag or $75 / 50lb bag on Amazon in the US.
- Manganese: Keras sold its Nayega manganese mining project to the government of Togo last year receiving $1.7m in cash along a 1.5% royalty advisory fee plus 6.0% of gross revenue generated from the Nayéga mine for the lesser of 3.5 years or 900,000t of beneficiated manganese ore produced and sold from Nayéga”.
- The deal with the Togo government should give nearly $0.9m a year at a price of $3.5/dmt for manganese and production of 7,480tpa equating to some $2.6m over three years.
- Manganese ore prices continue to rise and are now selling for $5.4.-5.5/t 13% min EXW China indicating higher royalty payments to come for Keras if the Government of Togo start mining and exporting ore from the Nayega mine.
Conclusion: The debt restructuring removes a degree of near-term uncertainty over debt repayments incurred in the restructuring of the organic phosphate business in Utah, USA. Keras’s 100% ownership of the Falcon Isle business and its machinery along with its relatively new jv with Phosul LLC should see a significant lift in phosphate sales. The new plant was due to be commissioned in May with the ability to ramp up the 520tpm capacity to 920tpm if there is sufficient demand for the Phosul® granules.
The Government of Togo recently started a tender process to appoint a contractor to manage activities at Nayega. We look forward to further news on this contract and to the start of manganese mining and export.
Total number of shares pre-convertible are 80,497,177. Converting the convertibles will add a further 31.6% new shares for a total diluted number of shares of 105,927,979.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Keras
Thor Energy (THR LN) 0.9p, Mkt Cap £2.8m – New MRE for the Molyhil tungsten project
- Thor Energy draws attention to a release issued by ASX-listed Investigator Resources containing a revised mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Molyhil tungsten/molybdenum deposit located around 230km northeast of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory.
- Today’s announcement follows the completion of a 12-hole drilling programme in December 2023 which has been incorporated into the new MRE which shows an overall resource of 4.65mt (up ~6%) at an average grade of 0.26% tungsten trioxide (around 4% lower than the previous estimate) and 0.09% molybdenum.
- The estimate is reported at a cut-off grade of 0.05%tungsten trioxide.
- The ‘Measured’ portion of the resource showed “a 150% increase in tonnes … [to 1.16mt] … and 20% increase in WO3 grade … [to 0.34%] … when compared to the previous resource estimate” issued in April 2021, and the company says that “Contained tungsten metal in the Measured Resource Category increased by 200% to 3,945 tonnes”.
- An additional 1.66mt at a grade of 0.27% tungsten trioxide and 0.10% molybdenum is classed as ‘Indicated’, with the balance of 1.82mt at a grade of 0.20% tungsten trioxide and 0.08% molybdenum classed at ‘Inferred’.
- Managing Director, Nicole Galloway-Warland, described the new MRE as “a positive result for the Project, and along with strong tungsten and molybdenum prices, it will be valuaable for the scoping study assessment to be undertaken by IVR early in Q3, 2024”
- Investigator Resources’ Managing Director, Andrew McIlwain explained that the 2023 drilling enabled their team “to better understand the variability within the deposit and increase confidence in density estimation, in addition to verification of grade distribution recorded from historic drilling”.
- He said that “This is an outstanding result for the project and will underpin the scoping study assessment that we anticipate will be completed early in the second half of this year”.
- Investigator Resources has now earned an initial interest of 25% in the project, plus 40% in the adjacent Bonya project. Expenditure of an additional A$2m earns IVR a further 26% interest taking it to 51% with a further A$5m of exploration “on or before the sixth anniversary of the JV Commencement Date” taking Investigator Resources’ interest to 80%.
Conclusion: The new resource estimate for Molyhil has increased the confidence level of the resources with around 60% of the tonnes now within the ‘Measured & Indicated’ categories providing a platform for a Scoping Study later this year. We await the outcome with interest.
No.1 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q1 2024
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
DISCLAIMER
This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.
This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.
This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.
Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.
Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.
SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).
SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.
MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.
A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).
SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%

